ตลาดพันธบัตรปฏิเสธ Fed แล้ว ทำไมกฎของทองคำถึงเพิ่งเปลี่ยน และนักลงทุนควรทำอะไรตอนนี้

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It's time to talk about what's happening in the global financial markets lately. It's very interesting. On July 29th, the US central bank, or as we know it, the Fed, announced its interest rate policy at 3.75%, neither raising nor lowering it. But what's more shocking is that the US bond market, which is like the world's weight scale, completely ignored the Fed. US 30-year bonds surged to 5.23%-2-3%, the highest level in 19 years, and gold prices shot up past $4,100 per ounce, as if global investors have started to believe that the rules of the global financial market are permanently changing. I will explain this in this clip. To understand why this is important, we need to go back. For the past 40 years, the world has operated on a simple formula: if the economy is bad, there's a war, or the stock market crashes, global investors flock to buy US government bonds because they are considered the safest. Bonds are what the US government sells to borrow money. When you buy government bonds, they pay you interest twice a year and return the principal when they mature. But in 2026, that picture is starting to break down more and more clearly. Because when major events happen in the world, instead of investors flocking to US bonds, people are selling bonds, causing yields or bond interest rates to surge instead. What makes this even more concerning is that the US currently has accumulated public debt of nearly $40 trillion, and in fiscal year 2026 alone, the US must pay $1.55 trillion in bond interest, more than its entire defense budget combined. This is a signal that many global analysts say the financial system as we know it is entering a transition period. Now, let's get to the main content. Since the beginning of 2026, the US central bank has a new chairman named Kevin Watch, who replaced Jerome Powell, whom we've known for many years. He is a financier known for his decisiveness and unwillingness to compromise with the market. What he did immediately after taking office was to completely change the Fed's communication methods. If you look at past Fed statements, they used to be very long, explaining in detail when they would lower or raise interest rates and why. The June meeting statement was shortened from 341 words to only 130 words, and Forward Guidance, or hinting at future interest rate directions, was completely removed. It was replaced with a short sentence stating that the committee will deliver price stability, and that's it. This sounds like a mere communication policy issue, but it has shaken the global financial markets immensely. Because for the past 20-plus years, global investors have planned their investment portfolios almost entirely based on the Fed's hints. When the Fed said it would lower interest rates, stock prices and gold went up. When the Fed said it would raise interest rates, asset prices adjusted downwards. But now, they say there are no more hints, leaving the market to guess. And so, the market decided to do something very shocking: it no longer believes the Fed. Imagine this: Suppose you've been renting a house from a landlord for 20 years. This landlord tells you every year how much the rent will increase or decrease next year. You can plan your finances accordingly. But one day, the landlord says, "From now on, I won't tell you in advance. Just pay what I say." How would you feel? Annoyed, uncertain, and starting to look for other options, right? Global institutional investors feel the same way. When the Fed goes silent, they start looking for other assets that can better hedge against uncertainty, and gold is the first answer that comes to mind. Now let's look at the key figures from the latest Fed meeting on July 29, 2026. The Fed rate was kept at 3.75%, but 3 members voted to raise interest rates immediately. The statement indicated that PCE, the inflation indicator the Fed watches most closely, had its forecast raised to 3.3% from 2.7%. And 9 out of 18 Fed committee members believe that interest rates will need to be raised at least once more before the end of 2026. Under this data, long-term bond markets surged immediately. The 30-year bond yield broke through 5.2-2-3%, the highest level in 19 years. Gold prices, on the other hand, rose 2% to over $4,100 per ounce on the same night. Why did gold rise even though interest rates are still high? Normally, if you study economics, you'd say high interest rates make gold unattractive because gold doesn't pay interest. But this is a regime change, a change in market rules. Literally, it means the old rules that have been in place for 40 years are no longer applicable. Let me explain the mechanism. In the old era, when interest rates were high, investors holding bonds received good returns. So, gold was sold off because bonds were better. But now, a significant variable has changed: the major buyers of US bonds are withdrawing. China, which used to be one of the largest holders of US bonds in the world, now holds $652.33 billion in US bonds, the lowest since 2008. This means China has been gradually selling off US bonds for years, and it's not just China. Many central banks around the world, especially the BRICS group (China, Russia, India, Brazil, South Africa, and new members), have reduced their holdings of US bonds and are instead buying gold. The figures are very striking: central banks worldwide have been buying more than 1,000 metric tons of gold per year for four consecutive years, from 2022 to the present. Last year, 2025, alone, central banks bought a total of 1,237 metric tons of gold, more than the annual gold production of many medium-sized gold mines combined. The BRICS group, now with over 10 members, collectively holds 17.4-4% of the world's gold reserves, up from 11.2-2% in 2019. In less than 7 years, their share has increased by more than 55%. Why is this happening? Let's look at the mechanism. As the US debt accumulates to $40 trillion and it has to pay $1.55 trillion in interest annually, it means the US government must continuously issue new bonds to raise money to pay the interest on old bonds, like a giant financial pyramid scheme. Many prominent analysts call this situation a "Death Spiral." Ray Dalio, the world-renowned investor and founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, has been warning about this since early 2026, stating that America is following the pattern of every past declining superpower. He cited the Suez Crisis of 1956 as an example, when Britain sent troops to the Suez Canal but was pressured financially by the US and had to withdraw. From that day on, confidence in the British pound as a global reserve currency collapsed irreversibly. Dalio believes the US is reaching its own turning point, not tomorrow, but the direction is becoming clearer every day. There's another interesting aspect: the share of the US dollar in global central bank foreign exchange reserves has fallen to about 57%, the lowest level since 1994, down from 71% in 1999. In just 27 years, the dollar has lost nearly one-fifth of its share in the global reserve market. And a survey by the World Gold Council found that 73% of central bank governors worldwide believe the dollar's share will decrease further in the next five years, and 43% of central banks that responded to the survey said they plan to increase their gold holdings in their reserves in the near future. This isn't just conspiracy theory; these are actual figures from central banks that are voting with their countries' reserves. Imagine this: if 10 neighbors in a village gradually start moving their money out of Bank A and depositing it into Bank B little by little each year, eventually Bank A will face problems. And that's what's happening to the dollar and US bonds. Now, let's return to the US bond market. Jim Grant, a legendary bond analyst and publisher of Grant's Interest Rate Observer for nearly 30 years, has spoken about the "centennial bond bear" theory, suggesting we might be at the beginning of a bond bear market that could last for decades. If that's true, it means long-term bond yields will remain high or continue to rise throughout that period, which will further increase the interest the US government has to pay each year. And what's noteworthy is that Morgan Stanley, a global investment banking giant, has proposed a new portfolio model called the "60/20 Model," which reduces bond allocation and replaces it with gold. Instead of the traditional 60% stocks, 40% bonds formula that global investors have used for decades, gold is no longer just a safe-haven asset. It is gradually being revalued as a global reserve asset. I'd like to connect this to a larger context. In 2025, the BRICS group launched a pilot currency called "The Unit" on October 31, 2025. It's a digital currency pegged to 1 gram of gold, backed 40% by gold and the remaining 60% by the currencies of BRICS member countries. If The Unit becomes widespread in trade among BRICS countries, the demand for US dollars will decrease further, and the demand for gold will increase further in the same direction. This is a bearish outlook for the dollar. Now, let's address a question many Thais might have: how does this affect us? I'll be direct: Thailand is not the game maker, but we have to play by the rules. If US bond yields continue to rise, foreign capital will continue to be drawn into the US because of the high returns. This means the Thai baht has the potential to weaken, making imported goods more expensive, including oil, which Thailand imports almost entirely. However, at the same time, if you hold gold in your portfolio, in Thai terms, the gold you buy from gold shops in department stores will also increase in price, following global gold prices, because Thai gold is primarily pegged to global gold prices. Another interesting aspect is that if the Fed has to raise interest rates again, global stock markets will face pressure again. The Thai stock market is not in a huge bubble, but the fund flow, or the movement of foreign capital in and out of the Thai stock market, will be affected. This is because international institutional investors who hold Thai stocks often consider returns relative to US Treasuries as a benchmark. What to watch next: First, the Fed meeting in September 2026, where the market estimates a 60% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates by another 0.25%. If this happens, long-term bond yields will rise further, and gold may adjust in the short term, but the long-term trend remains upward. Second, the US PCE inflation figures to be announced in late August. If inflation remains stubbornly above 3%, it will force the Fed to choose between raising interest rates and hurting the economy, or doing nothing and letting inflation erode purchasing power. Third, China's and other central banks' holdings of US bonds. These figures are released monthly. If the numbers continue to decrease, it's a sign that the world is truly moving away from the dollar, not just talking about it. To summarize clearly: this situation reflects that the global financial system is undergoing a major turning point. The Fed, under Powell, has signaled that the bond market is refusing to believe the Fed can still control it. Long-term bond yields have surged to a 19-year high, while US debt has exceeded $40 trillion, with annual bond interest payments reaching $1.5 trillion. Central banks worldwide, especially the BRICS group, have been buying gold continuously for four years, over 1,000 tons per year. The BRICS' share of gold in global reserves has jumped from 11.4% to 17.4-14%. The dollar has fallen to 57% of global reserves, the lowest since 1994. And gold is no longer just a safe-haven asset but has become an alternative reserve asset that Morgan Stanley even recommends including in portfolios instead of bonds. Those who understand this early will likely have an advantage over those who wait for the headlines to appear before making decisions. The rules of the game have changed. The question is, will you adapt before or after the market? Thank you everyone for following and listening. If you like this kind of content, please follow. If there are any errors, I apologize. Thank you to friends who have commented and provided feedback; I will use it for improvement. But for today, I must bid farewell. See you in the next clip. Goodbye.