Transcription
It is week number four. Every game, every matchup, spreads, totals, where the Sharps are betting, everything you need to set your fantasy football lineups.
While this video is live, the first five or six hours, I will answer every single fantasy football question that gets dropped in the comments. And of course, make sure you're subscribed to the channel if you're not. Only about 42% of you guys subscribed. We corrected a little bit of that last week. Let's get it going with the first game on the docket. West Coasters 6:30 a.m. kickoff, 9:30 a.m. Eastern in Dublin, Ireland here. The Vikings taking on the Steelers. The Vikings are 2 and 12 point favorites. Minnesota implied for 21 a.5. The overunder set quite low though at just 40 and a half points. The under catching a little bit of the steam. Both offenses have struggled mightily and both defenses are starting to play better. So, I can't imagine there's going to be two too many points in this one. Both quarterbacks are sits. You don't play Aaron Rogers or Carson Wentz here. Jordan Mason, however, you do play because he was playing a lot before the game became a blowout against the Cincinnati Bengals. The stat of the game, we'll showcase that in a second. Pittsburgh's run defense has been bottom five against fantasy football running backs. Jaylen Warren also been getting a great workload versus the Minnesota run defense. They are about an average matchup. DK Mechaf is in your lineup versus the Minnesota corners. Isaiah Rogers coming off of a perfect 99.9 PFF grade last week with a monster statline. Potentially one of the best we've ever seen for a defensive back in a single game. Jefferson out there of course because he's Justin Jefferson. Jordan Addison back off of his suspension. He served a three-game suspension for an off the- field driving incident and he is back on the field. We'll see if that's a boost for the Minnesota offense. You can definitely start TJ Hawinson in your lineup after a nice bounceback week in week three. And then the Pittsburgh defense and both kickers are definitely in play, especially given that this is a 40 and a half point overunder. It's in Dublin. I would expect a weird kind of kicker-ish type of game. Will Riker's been absolutely nails. Chris Boswell's been absolutely nails as well. Stat of the game for this one. In Jordan Mason's first start last week for the Minnesota Vikings, the Vikings ranked fourth in EPA per rush and seventh in success rate in 2024 with Aaron Jones as the starter. They were below average at 22nd and 18th, respectively. And Jordan Mason played 75% of the snaps before the game got out of hand. And he is one of the most explosive and consistent runners in the NFL through three games. So Jordan Mason, if you guys picked him up, if you had him on your roster waiting for an Aaron Jones injury, you are going to reap the benefits over these next couple of games because he has a great matchup this week and he's getting a great workload and playing super super well.
Moving into the 1pm slate, we have seven 1pm games, four 4pm games, a Sunday Night Football, and two Monday Night Football games here. The Washington Commanders heading to Atlanta to take on the Atlanta Falcons. They are one-point road favorites against Atlanta here. The overunders set at 45 points. A pretty highscoring week so far. We have a lot of games above that 45 threshold, which I would consider to be a high-scoring week. But we are seeing the under catch a major amount of the steam. And for those of you guys who are wondering what the colors and the numbers mean, there's 16 games on the slate. So if you're 15th and in red, it means your overunder steam is basically the 15th lowest of the slate. And that's where those numbers come. Essentially, green means good, yellow means average, and red means bad. That's pretty much all you need to know. Pace of play is among the slowest on the entire slate. Washington's DVOA as an offense about an average matchup. Atlanta's DVOA as an offense, not a great matchup against the Washington defense because they've been very good at stopping the run, which is pretty much all Atlanta's doing well at this point because Michael Penn has played super bad. Start Jaden Daniels, assuming he plays against the Atlanta defense. If Marcus Mariota is going to start this game, I think he's a viable streamer, which I'll talk about in the streamer section, but you probably want Jaden Daniels out there. It looks like Terry McLaren, assuming he is active, which it doesn't look like he's going to be, would see shadow coverage versus AJ Terrell, who also might not be active for this game. So, that might be an irrelevant statistic. It looks like we're going to have Debo Samuel as the lead receiver here in Washington potentially with Marcus Mariota. Sit Michael Penn. He played super bad against Carolina. I don't think anybody's going to be risking starting him. And of course, Bejian Robinson's going to be in your lineup, but he has a bad matchup. And Jaka Krosky Merritt, who's been missing practice right now. Keep an eye on his health because if he is out, Chris Rodriguez figures to be the early down guy and Jeremy McNichols kind of that Austin Eckler role. If JaKory Crosky Merritt is out for this game, you could probably start Chris Rodriguez as a flex option and maybe even Jeremy McNichols as well. But if uh Jakory Kroski Merritt is out there, I think he's a low-end flex option that you can use. Drake London, let's get him back on track. Washington's secondary has not been good. They should be able to get some things done in the passing game. And Darnell Mooney also been playing really, really bad this year. I don't think you can start him until he starts to play better. Kyle Pittz is a streamable tight end. Zack Z a streamable tight end, especially without Terry McLaren. I think both of those guys are top 15 plays for me at the position. So, if you need a tight end, they're definitely both in play for you. Stat of the game per PFF, Michael Penn recorded a 29.3 PFF passing grade in week three against the blowout loss to Carolina. That is the lowest recorded PFF passing grade for any quarterback all season. But that should be remedied by the lowest coverage grade defense in the NFL. The Commanders rank 32nd with a 37.7 coverage grade. So if Michael Penn looks bad in this game, we got to be worried about this passing offense. But hopefully he should bounce back in a major way because the Panthers are a much better pass defense than the Commanders are.
Moving into the next game, we have the Buffalo Bills taking on the New Orleans Saints. A whopping 15 1/2 point spread in this one. The Bills expected to absolutely wall up the Saints who just took a massive beating to the Seattle Seahawks a week ago. Overunder set at 48 points, but the Buffalo Bills implied for 31.75 of those. So we should see a massive point performance from Buffalo here. The pace of play is the fastest on the slate and Buffalo's DVOA as an offense versus the Saints DVOA as a defense presents the biggest advantage of any offensive and defensive matchup on the slate this week. You're starting everybody on Buffalo. Josh Allen, easy matchup. James Cook, easy matchup. You can flex Khalil Shakir or Keon Coleman if you want to. You can stream Daltton Concaid as a top 10 tight end if you want to. Alvin Camar and Chris Ave are in your lineup as far as the Saints side of things. They actually have pretty good matchups against a Buffalo run defense and pass defense that has been susceptible to passcatching running backs and high volume receivers specifically, but we do expect that the Buffalo Bills are going to uh route the Saints here on route to a big win and a 4-0 record. You can stream the Buffalo defense. I'm sure you guys are going to be excited to do that. And of course, Buffalo's kicker Matt Prader is in play as well. Stat of the game is that Daltton Concaid ranks third in the NFL among all tight ends with 2.13 yards per run. He also ranks first among the Bills wide receivers with 2.13 yards per run and a 69.2 PFF passing grade. In back-to-back weeks, Daltton Concincaid has produced 30 plus% targets per route run. He's still limited on 60% of the routes or so on the season, but let's see if the Bills decide to give him more playing time because he's playing super well. He's getting the targets and it looks like he is slated to have a great matchup in this one. So, start Daltton Concaid for sure. I think a lot of people are going to treat him as a sell high given the fact that he's not playing a lot of routes, but I actually think his routes are going to increase given how well he's playing.
Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions. The Lions are favored by 7 and a half points. 44 and a half point overunder. The under catching a little bit of the steam, but I do like this game environment. Generally speaking, the Lions have a nice DVOA matchup even despite how good the Browns defense has been. I think you could stream Jared Goff in this matchup, but keep in mind the Cleveland pass defense has been very good. You could start Jamir Gibbs. You can start David Montgomery. Of course, Cleveland's run defense has been very good. And of course, Aman Ross St. Brown being one of the best receivers in fantasy right now. He is going to be in your lineup. Jameson Williams can be in your lineup. And of course, uh Sam Leaporta, a streamable tight end. Just keep in mind that the Browns defense has been so good that they could stifle this Lions offense. Quinn Seawn Judkins is going to be in your lineup on the Browns side of things because he is playing a massive role in this offense. Jerry Judy and Cedric Tilman are flexible options and streamable tight ends Harold Fannon and David and Jooku. Given the game script, they're seven and a half point underdogs. It's possible that in the second half of this game, the Browns are playing from behind. Have to throw the ball a little bit and that results in Jerry Judy targets in Cedric Tilman targets in Harold Fannon David and Jooku targets. So keep that in mind if you need to play some Browns. I think they're a decent option. The Cleveland Browns offense is 28th for fantasy defenses. So that is baby food for the Detroit Lions. they can be a streamable option for you there and the Lions kicker Jake Bates is definitely in play. The stat of the game for this one, both run defenses are bottom five in plays allowed to opposing offenses. So, both defenses like to slow the game down. I would expect a heavy dose of the run for both teams and of course a good defense in general. Maybe lean on the under in this game if you're betting it. And again, maybe expect a slight down performance out of Jameson Williams types, out of Sam Leapora types, just given the game environment here. I don't think we're going to see fireworks necessarily. And I do think the Lions could have a struggle in the first half on offense like we saw in the Ravens and Browns game for example.
Titans at Texans. The Texans are seven-point home favorites. The worst game environment of the week here. Overunder of just 38 and a half. The under catching a lot of the steam. It does look like that is mostly Tennessee Titans base because the Texans as an offense should have a halfdeent matchup here. You can see CJ Stout a decent matchup. Nico Collins uh despite seeing shadow coverage from Legarius needed he should be able to get things done coming off an 11 target game last week. Christian Kirk had his first game back saw eight targets. He's definitely a streamable flex option there. Nick Chub a flexible option as well. Elkio Manor knowing that if he plays Calvin Ridley should see shadow coverage from Derk Stingley but he's not practicing right now Derrick Stingley. So uh keep that in mind but Elo Manor a usable option. And then if you're looking for a defense the Texans defense a juicy matchup for them. And of course, Caami Fairbon gonna be in your lineup. Stat of the game is that Calvin Ridley has the worst catch rate among NFL wide receivers with at least 10 targets. Just a 38.1% catch rate. Even if Dererick Stingley misses this game, which is the way that it's trending right now, he simply cannot be trusted. Ellio Manor is ranked higher for me this week than Calvinley marking the first time that this season that that has happened. And like I said, Christian Kirk also a little bit of a bonus stat. eight targets on just 77% of the routes in his first game back. Definitely a usable flex option.
Moving into Carolina Panthers taking on the New England Patriots. The Patriots are five and a half point home favorites here. Overunder of just 43 points. So, not a super highscoring game environment, but the pace of play is decent and the DVOA of the two offenses versus the opposing defenses is also uh decent as well. You could start Drake May against Carolina's pass defense. They've been exploitable against quarterbacks, but not necessarily against opposing wide receivers. And Drake May is going to probably have to get it done with his legs. Bryce Young has a nice matchup, but you're probably not going to need to mess with him in your starting lineup. Chuba Hubard was added to the injury report this week on Thursday, with an injury, so make sure Rico Dattle is rostered as of today, Friday morning. We don't know Chuba Hubard's health status. Maybe he'll be back at a full participation. It won't matter, but Chuba Hubard, assuming he plays, is a great start against the New England run defense. Trevian Henderson should see an increased workload this week against Carolina. Knowing that Reandre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson had fumbling issues and he played a large majority of the snaps once those fumbles took place. So Trevian Henderson is a usable flex option this week even though he hasn't been getting the workload. Teroa McMillan is a great start this week. One of the easiest matchups on the slate. Christian Gonzalez may play, so keep that in mind. If he does play, that's going to downgrade that matchup and he'll probably shadow Tedo McMillan. But if he is out, then you can feel confident starting T-MAC and you could feel confident starting him anyways given the volume he's seeing. But just keep in mind his matchup would be downgraded if Christian Gonzalez makes his season debut. Sit all of the New England wide receivers. You can't trust Booty. You can't trust Diggs against this matchup. They've been dynamite against fantasy wide receivers. What you're going to need to do is play Hunter Henry because that is how the passing game is probably going to operate. Carolina has been absolutely awful against fantasy tight ends. The New England defense and kicker are definitely in play for you here. The stat of the game in 2024, the Carolina Panthers allowed the most touchdowns, two tight ends with 11 on the season. Through three games in 2025, they've allowed the most yards to the tight end position with 74 per game.
Moving into the next game, we have the Los Angeles Chargers traveling to New York for Jackson Dart's debut game. The Chargers are 6 and 12 point road favorites. The overunder 44 points over catching a nice amount of the steam. So, um, you know, Vegas expecting and the Sharps expecting a nice little potential shootout here. And the Chargers have just an absolutely awesome advantage as an offense. So, you are starting all of your Los Angeles Chargers. Justin Herbert's in your lineup. Amari Hampton, of course, is in your lineup. Big bounce back for him in week three. Lad Mani, QJ, and Keenan Allen. All top 30 receivers in my weekly rankings this week. So, all of those guys are out there for you. And of course, um, the Chargers defense is in play. It's a rookie quarterback making his first start. Jesse Menter could probably confuse the crap out of this dude. Cam Scataboo probably in your lineup for the Giants given the workload he's about to see. And same with Malik Neighbors assuming he's back from that shoulder injury. And of course Cameron Dicker the kicker is in your lineup. Now the stat of the game for this one is actually Giants related because it's pretty straightforward for the Chargers. You're going to start all their players. Giants are seventh in EPA per play this season outside of the red zone. So between the 20s, they've actually been moving the ball really well, but they rank 31st inside the red zone. Now the exciting whites, Jackson Dart, who can run these RPOS's and run the football, and Cam Scataboo, who's obviously going to be really good in the red zone because of how he runs, they could really complete some drives here in this game. And it wouldn't shock me if this game was a lot closer and, you know, came down to the wire and was like a 30 to 27 game. and Jackson Dart has a nice little debut because he can move around with his legs and I do think that's going to be a weapon that he utilizes um pretty quickly in his NFL career. So even though this is a tough ask for your first NFL start, I do actually think that Jackson Dark could maybe be a fantasy relevant quarterback pickup on the waiverwire next week. I wouldn't start him this week. It's too risky. But if he has a nice game, he might be a nice pickup going up against the Saints in week five.
Eagles and Buccaneers. Obviously, I'm repping my Buccaneers right now and the Bucks are not in great shape given the injuries that they've suffered. Mike Evans and you know, some of the defensive injuries and whatnot, but Tristan Wars could be back for this game. Chris Godwin could be back for this game and I would actually venture guess to say that both will be given that last week we heard that this was the target date for both of them. The Eagles are three and a half point road favorites in this one over under a 43 and a half. Under catching a little bit of the steam, the DVOA of the Eagles offense is the bigger advantage over the offense of the Buccaneers versus the Eagles defense. You're going to be starting all your Eagles. Jaylen Herz is in your lineups. Saquon Barkley, a nice easy matchup against the Buccaneers. Uh pass defense against running backs. I mean, the run defense itself is really strong, but as a pass catcher, that's how Bree Hall got there a little bit last week. AJ Brown, Devonte Smith, the Buccaneers corners have played a lot better this year than they played last year. Um, with Jacob Parish, the rookie nickel that they have, Jamal Deans playing well, Zia Mcllum playing pretty well. So, AJ Brown, Smid, he might have tougher matchups. It could be a Jaylen Herz with his legs. Saquon Barkley, Dallas Goddard game if I had to guess for the Eagles here. And then Baker Mayfield, uh, a little bit of a riskier start given that he's coming in with a bit of like a biceps issue. And Mike Evans won't be in this game. Chris Godwin will probably be on a pitch count of some kind. I do think you can start Igbuka no problem. He is obviously going to be in your lineup. Same with Bucky Irving. Chris Godwin, I probably wouldn't mess with him if you guys have him. I would like to wait and see what happens in week one of him being back, but I don't know for sure if he's going to be on a pitch count. If we hear before the game that he's not going to be on a pitch count, then maybe he's a better start at that point in time. The stat of the game here is that when Tristan Wors plays for the Bucks, they're an elite offense. They average 29 and a half points per game since 2024 with Tristan Worfs at left tackle, the best left tackle in football. And they average um 25 and a half points without him since week one of 2024. The Bucks have also won four of their last five games against the Philadelphia Eagles, including two straight. And the Buccaneers have stopped the tush push more than any other defense in the NFL because of, you know, number 50 Va and some of the guys up front there. So keep that in mind. I do think that Jaylen Herz will probably get it done with his legs. Goddard probably have a nice game and Saquon probably have a nice bounceback. But AJ Brown and Smitty maybe not so much. Regardless, they're in your lineup.
Los Angeles Rams into the 4pm window taking on the Indianapolis Colts. This game didn't have a lot of juice a couple weeks ago, but now it does. Los Angeles is favored by three and a half points at home. highest overunder on the slate of 49 and a half points. The over getting hammered by the Sharps right now. 34% of the cash versus the public money on the over. So, it looks like the Sharps love this game to shoot out. Pace of play is really high. The DVOA of the two offenses versus the opposing defenses are both top 15 in the NFL among teams this week. I think you can stream both quarterbacks, Daniel Jones and Matthew Stafford. If I had to pick one, you probably lean Daniel Jones given the rushing ability, but Matthew Stafford actually has the better matchup. And I do like what he can do against this Colts defense, specifically if Kenny Moore, the slot corner, is out for the Colts. We'll have to wait and see on that report. That would mean great things for Puka Nua in this game, and it could be a monster game for him. Both running backs are definitely great plays this week, but keep in mind that Jonathan Taylor has the best run defense in the league going up against him, and Kairen Williams a top 12 run defense. So, probably more of a passing game for both teams. Puka and Adams are definitely starts. Adams was added to the injury report on Thursday, so keep an eye on that. Michael Pitman definitely a start this week and I do think you can flex Josh down specifically without Alec Pierce in this game. He might see his snaps increase. And of course, Tyler Warren is in your lineup. If you wanted to stream the Rams defense, just given how good it's been and maybe you don't believe in the Colts to be this like superpower offense, you could do it. I just probably wouldn't mess with them. And I do think both kickers are in play, but specifically Spencer Schrader of the Colts because he's been the better of the two. The stat of the game in this one is Puka Nakua slot rate up 23% through the first three weeks of 2025 versus his 2023 and 2024 seasons in the slot without Cooper Cup there. Obviously, that's a big benefit of this. He averages 45% targets per out run and 4.32 yards per run. Both of those marks are better than Cooper Cup's 2021 season where he was the biggest league winner, one of the best fantasy wide receiver seasons we've seen of all time. So, I've gotten some things right this off season. But to be honest with you, this is the one I feel the best about. Me calling Puka Nua the guy you needed at the end of the first round. Feels mighty good right now because this is precisely why I liked him so much. I thought he would be the movable chess piece. Adam's the ex- receiver. And Puka Nua, I had a bold prediction before the season that he could be 2021 Cooper Cup. And we're seeing that come to fruition. He's the 101 um at wide receiver in fantasy right now and maybe the 101 overall if you were in full PPR wide receiver heavy leagues there.
49ers uh taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Three and a half points for the 49ers. It appears it appears Brock Pury is going to come back for this game. We don't know for sure yet, but I would expect him to play based on all the reports we're seeing. Overunder of 47 points. Even money for the Sharps. We don't see too too much um uh disparity in the betting markets. The pace of play is really high. Both offenses running pretty uptempo, specifically the Jaguars. Both quarterbacks have bottom 10 matchups. So, even though Brock Pury is slated to come back, it's not a great matchup for him. If you have better options, I think you could pivot away from him, but I do still have him as a top 18 quarterback this week. Travis ETN versus a tough 49ers run defense. Probably expect a down week from him. Christian McCaffrey, maybe he'll find the end zone this week. Doesn't matter because he catches like 10 passes a game. Uh Brian Thomas Jr. versus the San Francisco corners is a better matchup than what we've seen from him. Travis Hunter is unstartable until he proves otherwise. Ricky Pieraw, a great start, assuming he plays because he was banged up in practice this week against Jacksonville's secondary. And if Jawan Jennings is back for this game, I do think he's a flex option for you if you need him. Brenton Strange, one of my favorite streaming tight ends of the week. Going up against the 49ers, it is a tough defense, but without Nick Bosa now, I do think um the pass rush might not have as easy of a time getting home on Trevor Lawrence. and Brettton Strange and Lawrence are one of the only, you know, passcatcher quarterback duos in this offense that are actually having a good connection. So, I actually like him as a good streamer. And then if you want a defense, I think the 49ers defense a good one. And Jacksonville's kicker's been on fire. So, you could definitely play him. Per Hayden Wings from underdog, the stat of the game here is that Brian Thomas Jr. ranks ninth among fantasy wide receivers in expected half PPPR points per game. And last week, he recorded the fastest ball carrier speed of any wide receiver this season in week three on that crossing route. So, could this be the game for Brian Thomas Jr. where he bounces back? Maybe send out some offers if people in your league are really concerned about him. I do think he is a worthwhile by low candidate right now.
Baltimore Ravens taking on the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead. This is going to be one of the better games of the week for sure. The Ravens are two and a half point road favorites against Kansas City. That doesn't typically happen. Kansas City, you know, anytime they're at home, it's almost a lock that they're going to be the favorites in the game, but Baltimore has been the better team this year. You're going to start Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, Derrick Henry, and all those guys. All the usual suspects. Patrick Mahomes going to be in your lineup. The big questions in this game really are what do you do with Xavier Worthy? Because Xavier Worthy of course is coming off of a shoulder injury. He has been a full participant in practice. It sounds like he was close to playing even last week. I do think Xavier Worthy is a guy that you can trust. I have him as a top 36 wide receiver. If he has a big game, maybe shop him on the open market because of what that reinjury risk looks like for a shoulder injury. But I do think I trust him this week. Isaiah Pacheco, I mean, he's getting like 55 60% of the snaps, but he's not doing anything with it. So, if he could start playing better, he's going to be a usable fantasy option for you. But for now, you probably want to sit him if you have better options, but he is somehow still inside my top 36 running backs. So, that makes him a flex. And then Kelsey and Andrews, both startable tight end options, over under 48 and a half points. The over catching the steam here. Two offenses that should get back on track, especially the Chiefs with Worthy coming back. That should open up some stuff over the middle for Travis Kelce as well. So, stat of the game, Derrick Henry's fumble in versus the Bills in week one Sunday Night Football. Since that play, his PFF rushing grade has been below 48 in back-to-back games. That is the worst twoame stretch of his career in PFF grade. Chiefs run defense was first in the NFL in 2024, but through three games, it is actually 29th in PFF run defense grade. They've been able to stop the run against the Chargers, but in the other two games, they were not able to stop the run. So, I do think that we could see a bounce back for Derrick Henry, but if we don't, I would start to get a little bit worried that the guy is losing a little bit of a step. I don't want to go too far too crazy on Derrick Henry, but he doesn't look great so far. Other than that first game against the Bills, we need to see him play better. I have confidence that he will, but just keep that in mind.
Uh, moving into the final 4pm game of the window, we have the Raiders minus one and a half point favorites over the Bears at home in Las Vegas here. 47 and a half point overunder and the over catching some steam. So, this is a nice game environment to start some flex options, to start some players in. Definitely start Caleb Williams. I do think that one of the best streamers of the week is Gino Smith going up against this Chicago pass defense that has been absolutely awful. Dak Prescott wasn't able to get a whole lot done against them last week, but Gino Smith had a nice game against the Commanders who are a better defense. And I do think that uh the Bears are exploitable. Ashton Genty, this should be the game. If Genty doesn't get it done in this game and look better and have more efficient plays in a big run or something like that, I would start to get really worried about this guy because this is the easiest matchup by a country mile that he's played this year. He's played three really good run defenses. And I do think that the Las Vegas offensive line will have an easier time moving the Chicago defensive line than they had against the the Chargers and against some of the other teams, the Patriots and the Commanders last week. So Jenty, get back on track here. Last chance to buy low on him, I would say, right now. Both wide receiver cores have top 10 matchups. So you're definitely starting Odun, you're definitely starting um Jacobe Meyers, you're probably starting DJ Moore, and you can even flex Trey Tucker if you absolutely needed to. Um flex DeAndre Swift, even though it's a bad matchup, he is getting all the touches for the most part. Obviously, Brock Bowers is in your lineup. And then if you need a defense, now I probably wouldn't start one, but you could stream Chicago's defense because the Raiders have actually been really giving it up to fantasy defenses, but I would imagine you have better options, so I wouldn't go too crazy with that. And then Daniel Carlson is obviously a great kicker start for the Raiders this week. Stat of the game per PFF, the Raiders are dead last in the NFL versus play action in the NFL, allowing the highest EPA per pass allowed and a top five open target rate of 77.8%. Well, Caleb Williams just posted 11.4 yards per attempt versus Dallas and that was top five among quarterbacks all season. So, this is a good play action game. Hopefully, they can get the run game going a little bit so it threatens that. Um, but I do think Caleb Williams could have a couple of long bombs here. Maybe to Odunay, maybe to Burton again like we saw last week, maybe to DJ Moore. Um, I do think that this could be a great game for Caleb Williams.
Moving into the Green Bay Packers taking on the Dallas Cowboys at Jerry World. This, of course, is the Micah Parson's revenge game and the Kenny Clark revenge game as a result of that. Overunder of this game is 47 and a half points. The over catching a good amount of the steam. Um, all the Packers that you want to start, you probably can start Jordan Love, start Josh Jacobs. I do think that Matthew Golden is a very solid top 35ish wide receiver start and even Romeo Dobs a good low-end flex play and Tucker Craft assuming he's back healthy which it looks like he's starting to be is a top five tight end for me. So is Jake Ferguson actually on the other side of this game. Now of course we have the CD Lambless Dallas Cowboys offense. What does that look like for George Pickkins? What does that look like for Jake Ferguson? I expect a big target bump for both of those guys. So they have to be in your lineup as really awesome plays this week. and Javvante Williams should get the majority of the touches. Keep an eye on Javvante Williams' snap share because it's been declining in three straight weeks and Miles Sanders increasing in three straight weeks and this backfield could go to more of a dead even split the way that we see things going right now. But just to note, a footnote right now at this point in time and uh I would be okay streaming Dak Prescott, but without CD Lamb, I probably think you have better options. I don't think you have to go with a Dak Prescott uh stream in this game and I think there's better options out there for you. Stat of the game. Cowboys have ranked 31st in the NFL in run defense grade per PFF this year despite adding Kenny Clark who was supposed to fix their run defense. And the Packers are 6 and a half point road favorites against the CD Lambless Dallas Cowboys operation in Micah Parson's revenge game. So what this sounds like to me is Josh Jacobs about to get 25 carries in this game. So Josh Jacobs, if you have to go against him, I you know pity you cuz you're probably going to get a lot of carries and probably some rushing touchdowns scored against you in that one.
So, Monday night double header. Thankfully, uh, East Coast UNKs don't have to worry about this one because the first kickoff is at 7:15 Eastern. The other one is at 8:15 Eastern. So, we don't have to worry about a 10 p.m. kickoff this time. Thankfully, New York Jets 0 and3 taking on the 0 and3 Miami Dolphins. An AFC shitterter battle here. Miami Dolphins favored by two and a half at home in Miami there. The overunder of 45. I like the over in this one, man. I think this one's going to have a lot of points in it. Part of it is probably because Justin Fields is not guaranteed to play. And if Tyrod Taylor is playing, that could result in less points. But regardless, man, I like the over in this game. I think this one could shoot out. Top 12 DVOA matchups, each offense versus the opposing defense. And it's more speaking to how bad those two defenses are as opposed to how good the offenses are. I think if Justin Fields plays, you got to start him, man. He runs the ball. It's a concussion. You don't usually see a performance dip from a quarterback perspective with concussions. So, if he's out there, you got to play him. But you won't know that until Monday, of course. U maybe he gets cleared out of the protocol on like Saturday and you know that going into the week. I think Tuatunga is a streamable quarterback. I don't know how excited I would be to start him. I think there's probably better options out there, but you could use him in a pinch. Both running backs have top eight matchups. Devon Achan and Bree Hall. Two of the most passcatching involved running backs in the league right now too. So definitely um feel good about them. Tyreek Hill versus Sauce Gardner, assuming he's healthy, is the expected shadow matchup for Tyreek. But I do like Tyreek anyways as a top 24 wide receiver. Garrett Wilson has an awesome matchup in this one versus the Miami secondary. Jaylen Wadd also a great matchup versus the Jets secondary minus S Gardner who should be on Tyreek for most of the time. And I do think both kickers are in play here. Both of them have top five matchups. Now stat of the game here. This game features the 30th ranked pass defense in EPA allowed the New York Jets and the 32nd ranked defense in EPA allowed the Miami Dolphins. So I would expect monster games from the usual uh suspects. So that's Devon Achan, Bree Hall, Tyreek Hill, Garrett Wilson and so on. specifically Garrett Wilson. The Dolphins are an everything cheap defense. Now, what I mean by this is that short passes is how you beat them. And that's what Garrett Wilson thrives on. Quick separation, 10 plus target game incoming for Garrett Wilson. So, if you have to play him in any kind of PPR format, I do pray for you because he might have a lot of catches in this one.
Denver Broncos taking on the Cincinnati Bengals. The Broncos 7 and a half point home favorites here um in mile high 44 and a half point overunder. the pace of play very fast in this game. So, we might see a little bit more points than maybe a lot of people are expecting. Start Bow Knicks versus the Cincinnati pass defense. I think this is a good bounceback spot for him. Unfortunately, I have to play against Bo Knicks um in the Flock League. That is who Zach is starting at quarterback this week. So, if you want any confirmation that he's going to go off, he's going against me. JK Dobbins, a great start this week, man. He's been really performing at a high level and a season high in snap percentage last week. So, he's an every week starter until we see otherwise. Chase Brown versus the Denver Run defense. very, you know, rough matchup so far. Rough efficiency so far for Chase Brown, but I do think he can bounce back a little bit in this game, although that does sound like Copium to some degree. Jamar Chase expected to see Patrick Certan in shadow coverage. So, you're starting T. Higgins versus the rest of that secondary. Could be a T. Higgins game. If you guys recall, last time T. Higgins played the Denver Broncos. I believe he scored three touchdowns in week 17 to try and get the Bengals into the playoffs. So, T. Higgins got a history against this team. So, make sure he is in your lineup. And I would, of course, buy low on T. Higgins before this game. And as you guys probably saw on my Twitter, I did buy low on T. Higgins. It was mainly to go get Bian Robinson, but T. Higgins was a part of that deal as well. And I feel excellent about it. Hey, sometimes when people knock on your door and tell you they need running backs cuz they lost one to injury, you give them two for one and you end up getting Bejian Robinson and T. Higgins out of it. So, you feel very good about that in my home league. I'm ecstatic that I'm able to to pair Bejian Robinson now with Puka Nakua. Corin Sutton versus the Cincinnati corners. Um, definitely a decent matchup. I think Troy Franklin is a viable flex play as well. uh Denver defense and both kickers are in play. I mean McFersonson and Lutz are two of the better kickers in the league and the Denver defense is at home seven and a half point favorites. So you feel comfortable with that. Stat of the game. Chase Brown has been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage 76% of the time. Would be an NFL record by a country mile if it stood for the rest of the season. So you can look at that one of two ways. The Bengals offensive line is bad, which is correct. Or positive regression is coming for Chase Brown to some degree because it is impossible to be this bad as a run blocking offensive line. it is going to correct itself eventually. Is it going to come this week? I'm not sure, but the Broncos are exploitable against the run. We've seen back-to-back weeks a running back kind of take advantage of them there.
Moving into the streamers for the week, streaming quarterbacks, streaming tight ends. I heard your feedback. Lots of you guys commented last week, none of these guys are available in my league. These are guys that are rostered widely. So, I decided streaming quarterbacks and tight ends are only going to be guys that are rostered in under 70% of sleeper leagues. So, some of these guys are widely available, some of them are somewhat available. These are the best streamers as in guys that are reasonably on your waiver wire that you can use this week. Streaming quarterbacks, Justin Fields versus the Dolphins, like I said, if he's starting, you got to play him. Matthew Stafford versus the Colts I like a lot this week as well. Gino Smith versus the Chicago Bears. Definitely a great matchup for him. CJ Strat versus the Tennessee Titans. And of course, Sam Darnold, who already played against the Arizona Cardinals on Thursday night. Streaming tight ends. Hunter Henry, the absolute cream of the crop. If he's available in your league and you need a streamer, go get him. Fannon versus the Detroit Lions. Positive game script for the Browns. I like him this week. Dallas Goddard versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Really good matchup over the middle. Servasier Dennis and the Buccaneers cannot cover tight ends right now. So definitely um go ahead and pick up Goddard if he's available. Brentton Strange probably the best option that's widely available or more widely available against the 49ers. And Kate Dton if you're desperate is a good option because um Baker Mayfield said in his press conference that when Kate Dton has to block more, which has been the case without Tristan Warf, he's not as big of a part of the offense. And if Tristan Warfs is back, that means less blocking for Kade Autton.
Now, top 10 defenses in my rankings this week. Instead of doing streamers, like I said, we're just giving you the top 10 defense in rankings. If they're available, go pick them up. Denver Broncos versus the Bengals, my number one defense. Detroit Lions versus the Browns, my number two defense. Buffalo Bills versus the Saints, my number three. Houston versus Tennessee, my number four. Los Angeles Chargers versus the rookie quarterback in his first start, my number five. Pittsburgh versus Minnesota, my number six. New England versus Carolina, number seven. Green Bay at Dallas. Uh, revenge. Micah Parson's game number eight. San Francisco versus Jacksonville number nine. Arizona versus Seattle number 10. Now, unfortunately, Seattle was the better defense to start in that game. Top five kickers, Brandon Aubrey, Cameron Dicker, Matt Prader, Tyler Loop, and Chris Boswell. And then kickers 6 through 10, Caim Fairbar, Brandon Mcmanis, Jake Bates, Harrison Bucker, and Jake Elliot.
So, that is the end of today's video. Matchups that matter was on deck here. We went through everything we possibly could, including Ireland games and 1 PM slate and all the overunders, all the matchups that you guys need to to pay attention to, all the streamers you can use and everything in between. Again, like I said at the beginning of this video, only 42% of you guys who watch our videos are subscribed to the channel. It is totally free to do so. We really, really appreciate the support this time of year. It's a big growth period for us. So, hit the subscribe button if you're enjoying the content here. Leave a like down below. If you ask a question, least you could do is leave a like. And for the first, let's say, four or five hours that this video is live, I will answer every question that we get. So, if you have a start sit, if you have a trade question, leave it down below in the comments. Really appreciate all of the support on the videos this season so far. And of course, if you guys do want our rest of season rankings, our dynasty rankings, our weekly rankings, everything up-to-date dynasty trade value chart update coming tomorrow as well. Use our trade calculator, the best tools in the industry, the my teams feature, all that good stuff. Head on over to flockfantasy.com. Use the promo code FSE when you sign up. Get a free team review voucher when you sign up for an annual motherflocker and we'll cover that live on stream for you as well. And of course, if you get the season pass, you do get a couple of start sit vouchers, trade question vouchers, and all that good stuff. And that'll cover you from now until the end of the fantasy football season about Christmas time of 2025. So definitely check that out if you guys are interested. If you want that bonus content, that'll be linked down below in the pin comment. But with that being said, peace out and I'll talk to you soon. You beat me. You beat me.