Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Ethereum, dubious speculation. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com. That sale is going to end at the end of the year. So, just a few more days to lock in the lower rate before 2026 arrives. Let's go ahead and jump in.
So, Ethereum is following a pattern we've actually seen before, where you kind of capitulate into a low, and then you go back up, and you kind of fall back in after it. It's happened many times. Uh, just to point out a few examples of when we've seen this type of move happen. Here's a great example, right? A capitulation low, uh, a multi-week bounce, then a dump right after. Um, seen it happen over here. It's happened a lot. And also in 2021, right? Down, up, and then even lower, and then back up.
What I've sort of equated this to before is the Tesla move. And I know that seems a little strange, but if you pull up Tesla, uh, one of the things that I, and I'm not 100% sure how this is going to play out, to be completely honest, but when you look at the Tesla move, you can see that you sort of had this this low, and then sort of a macro higher low. I guess this first low was closer to, um, yeah, about 100, and then 139, and then you had sort of a high at 488, and then now it, it Tesla put in a new all-time high, but note that it went all the way down to 214 first. And so this low that Tesla had, this macro higher low, was in April of 2024, whereas for Ethereum, you had sort of a low around 100. I mean, it did wick lower. Um, let me find this price label. So, it did wick lower, but more or less around 100, and then this macro higher low, 1380, and then you swept the high at like 4800, 4900. It's, it's come back down.
The hard part now for Ethereum, and and this is what I've wrestled with, is like, all right, if it's going to go higher, and if it's going to complete the butterfly harmonic, you would expect it to do that sooner rather than later. So, if it doesn't do that sooner rather than later, then maybe it's playing out something different. But notice when Tesla had this pullback, it ultimately came back down to this low that it sort of built off of before then going back up near the highs. So, for Ethereum, that would essentially correspond, unfortunately, to 2100. Now, I'm not saying it has to go to 2100. We also know that Tesla found the low after only about 16 weeks, and Ethereum has been in this move for already longer than that, right? You know, the low was found on week 13, at least in the current drop, and we're currently on week 18. So, I don't want to suggest that it's impossible for Ethereum to sort of find a higher low, week 18, and then start to move back up into 2026. Even if I think the top for Bitcoin is in for the cycle, it doesn't mean that some things can't go to all-time highs. So, there does exist a scenario like where that happens.
Um, right now, Ethereum is still basically just struggling to stay above the logarithmic aggression band. So, the way I'm thinking about Ethereum is is like this. Okay, just to be blunt about it. Um, I, I think that in the short term, for, I would say for about the next week or so, I think ETH is going to struggle against Bitcoin. I think it might find a macro higher low within the next couple of weeks or so. When you look at what happened by Ethereum in 2019, it actually printed the higher, or sorry, it printed a low around the time that the balance sheet started to really expand. Right? We can see that. But the balance sheet last cycle did not really start to expand until about a month after quantitative tightening ended. Now, maybe the balance sheet is already starting to expand, but if it does come back down, that could justify ETH, Bitcoin sort of falling back in once again.
What I've sort of, the pattern that it looks the closest, most similar to me, is actually 2020, where the ETH Bitcoin valuation, you know, basically went this, the same levels in August, right? And then in August, so both are August, both found lows. This one was like mid-November. This low here, I mean, there was a wick in in early November, but in mid-November, it's kind of where it found the low. It then rallied for a few weeks, like right there, and then it dropped off of a cliff into late December. You see that? How it fell off a cliff into late December and then it came back down. So, what I think could happen for ETH Bitcoin is a quick drop back down. And the reason I say that is because a lot of times total 2 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin, or I should say individual altcoin Bitcoin pairs, a lot of times will find like these macro double bottoms. And so, we already have one here. And so I, I wonder if we just simply need to have another one down here. Now, you could have that on a macro higher low by ETH Bitcoin. It would just require all Bitcoin pairs to go to lower lows, right? Which excludes Ethereum. Total 3 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin. So, I kind of think that's what's going to happen, where Ethereum shows weakness for at least the next like week or two, um, which allows ETH Bitcoin to sort of fall back in and then print a a macro higher low, and then that would correspond to total 2 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin falling back down. A lot of times when we form these wicks, we do eventually go filled, like we do eventually go back down there. So, I kind of think that's what's going to happen.
In the short term, you can see that all Bitcoin pairs were trying to get back above the 21-week EMA. They were unable to, and now they're selling off. And the, the reverse is also true. If you look at at Bitcoin dominance, it's been struggling to break above the bull market support band, but it looks like it's starting to to break through now. So, you're seeing that weakness in the altcoin market. And when you look at Bitcoin, a lot of times when it, it gets this move, sometimes it prints a higher low, sometimes it prints a slightly lower low before getting the counter-trend rally back up to the bull market support band. So, if you look at 2022, it had a drop, a rally, and then a higher low, and then a move up to the bull market support band, right? It's already had the drop, a rally. We're in that second drop right now. Does it go to a slightly lower low, or is it a higher low? If it's a higher low, it might not Ethereum might not pull back that much more before getting that counter-trend rally back up. But I would caution you to assume that it has to be a higher low, because in 2019, which is arguably what this is the most similar to, especially if you look at, um, if we go over, actually, I want to look at at the indicator risk dashboard for for all or crypto, and you can see that social interest is still essentially really, really low, more similar to 2019. And in that 2019 move, you can see that Bitcoin had sort of a drop, a little bit of a rally, and then it wicked down to a new low and then got a counter-trend rally back up to the bull market support band. So, I'm kind of leaning towards that, honestly, which if it does, if Bitcoin has to sweep, um, if Bitcoin has to sweep this low right there, or maybe it sweeps this one, then that could obviously correspond to Ethereum going below that low and maybe following Tesla, right? Where it goes all the way back down there in a, in a really worst-case short-term outcome, where like it wicks down and then goes right back up. That is the possibility that I want people to just kind of be aware of, because with Bitcoin, if it's able to go back down here, that is a possibility.
Now, listen, I, I do think that the cycle top for Bitcoin is in. Um, and one of the reasons I think that is if you just look at the ROI of Bitcoin from the low, and you look at this cycle compared to the last two, it lasted 1,062 days, and last one was 1,59, and the one before that was 1,068. So, in terms of length of time, it lasted the same amount of time as as the last two. The reason why people have a hard time accepting it is because we topped on apathy rather than euphoria. But I still think after we topped, after the 2019 top, we still had a bare market for a while, even though we topped on apathy rather than euphoria. So, I think euphoria will come back to the crypto markets, but I think it's going to take some time, right? I think it's going to, it's going to take some time, uh, for that to happen. And so I think, and I think it'll probably be best viewed through the lens of the the next four-year cycle.
But if I were to play devil's advocate with myself on this, I again, I do think that Bitcoin has topped. But if you made me say, "All right, we'll take the other side." I would just look at a stock like Nvidia and be like, "All right, well, it had a low, and then it swept the low, and then it put in a new all-time high." Right? Google did the same thing, right? Where it had a low, and then it sort of, it put in a higher high, by the way, the same way that Bitcoin did. Swept the low and then went to a new all-time high. Like, is it possible that Bitcoin does the same thing where it sweeps this low and goes to new all-time high? It's possible, but it's not my base case. But the point is, is like, if it does, if Bitcoin does do that, like, if it, if it sweeps this low on the next downturn and then goes back up, during that process of Bitcoin dropping, if it's able to sweep that low, you're talking about like a 15% drop. A 15% drop for Ethereum would already put it at like 2500. But I'm expecting ETH Bitcoin to drop for the next week or so. So, that could actually be a deeper drop for Ethereum. Uh, maybe closer to 20 to 30% drop. Uh, which would then, which would then heavily mimic what Tesla did, right? Where it went all the way down to 214. Again, I, I can't say for sure if it's going to mimic Tesla or not, but that would be a pattern I'd be, I'd want people to be aware of.
So, it's more like I would say this. I don't think people need to make like rash decisions based on this dubious speculation. But if Bitcoin comes back down and sweeps the low from April, and Ethereum is back down at like 210, 215, or sorry, 2,00, 2100, 2150, um, whether the top is in or not, like that could provide a good counter-trend short-term trade, right? Where like, okay, if it comes back down there, it likely would see a counter-trend rally back up to at least the bull market support band, right? So that's the way I'm viewing the market right now. If, if ETH Bitcoin is still holding on in like two or three more weeks, then I might change my mind on it. But for now, I would say for, and things are like, right now, things are tricky because a lot of times ETH Bitcoin bottoms like late December, early January. So, like, I'm making this video kind of expecting a lot to happen really, really soon. So, if nothing happens in the next week, then I might have to come back and be like, "All right, back to the drawing board." But over the next week, that's essentially my view, right? I, I think there's a good chance that Bitcoin falls back in, ETH Bitcoin drops, ETH USD drops a little bit, and then, and then maybe we go back up into the new year. But if it doesn't happen by the new year, then I might have to pivot and and say, all right, you know, perhaps we won't, we won't see that sweep.
So, in the short term for Bitcoin, the main thing to watch for is, does it print a higher low from here or a lower low? If you believe more in just the cyclical part of the view, then you would expect a higher low like 2022. If you believe more in the monetary policy view, you would expect a sweep of the low. And also, there was a very little volatility here, and then we swept the low, and then after sweeping it, we then got a big move back up to the bull market support band. So, it could look something like this, right? Where it comes down, sweeps the low, then big move back up, and then back down.
What's interesting for ETH is if ETH Bitcoin goes to say 0.053 up here on a lower high by Bitcoin, it could technically lead to a new all-time high. Like, if ETH Bitcoin goes to 0.05 and Bitcoin USD is back at 100K, that, it's possible. I mean, if you look at at what normally happens, Bitcoin rallies back up to the 50-week moving average. Not always. 2014, it didn't. But in 2022, it rallied back to the 50-week. In 2018, it also rallied back up to the 50-week. So, the 50-week right now for Bitcoin is currently at around 102, 102,000. So, if ETH Bitcoin prints a sort of like a macro higher low late December, early January, and then goes back up sort of these levels, it's not impossible for Ethereum to put on a new all-time high.
What I'm wondering though, is if it does, does it do it immediately and then and then things are over? Because in 2018, Ethereum topped. I mean, so in 2017, Bitcoin topped, and then 2018, Ethereum did. So, like, is it possible that it just kind of wicks up and then back down? Maybe. But there's also sort of a valid view as well where we just spend more time consolidating in the regression band, which long-term might be the better thing. I will say this, if Ethereum goes to a new all-time high in January, I would then be very bearish on it. Very, very, like, it would probably then come way back below this April low if it did that because that would be the butterfly harmonic playing, the butterfly harmonic playing out, the butterfly harmonic. There's two videos we did on it. It was down, up, higher low, new all-time high, more than just a sweep, but like, you know, into the 5k range, but then after that, you get a big selloff if the butterfly harmonic is to play out. So, might be one of those things where like, you know, if it goes to new all-time high in January, great, but that would actually probably have deeper consequences. So, might be better to just consolidate honestly, uh, in the regression band.
I still remember a long time ago looking at this chart and, you know, back in, um, 2022, and remembering, gosh, the fair value isn't even going to reach 2K until like 2026. How is that going to, how are we going to spend that much time? This is how, right? That's exactly how you do it. So, I think by the end of the next bare market, right, whether we go to a new all-time high or not, you know, you'll have this regression band fully, this regression band fully caught up, and then it'll allow Ethereum to hopefully go to, you know, higher highs next cycle. But this cycle wasn't really great for Ethereum in general because of monetary policy. So, those are my views on Ethereum. Short-term, I think maybe expect a little bit of of, um, volatility to the downside as long as Bitcoin continues to drop. Early 2026, um, I would expect ETH Bitcoin to print a a higher low that it can hopefully build off of.
Thank you guys for tuning in. Make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and again, check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com. Again, that sale ends at the end of the year, so make sure you lock in the low rate. I'll see you guys next time. Bye.