Transcription
We may be watching the biggest political scandal in Ukraine since the invasion began. So, no time to beat around the bush. Pick up the phone because it is time for the geopolitics helpline. What are your thoughts on Mykhailo Fedorov losing his position as the Minister of Defense?
Some of the other channels that I watch, including ones by Ukrainians, are very upset about it and believe that it is evidence that the current government, possibly even Zelenskyy himself, is guilty of corruption. They are disheartened and angry. Obviously, on the surface, Fedorov's removal is problematic. But as we so commonly discuss on this channel, what might have been happening behind the scenes makes judging the wisdom of the move difficult for us as outsiders. So, let me explain what has been happening and then leave it to you to think more about it.
We should start with some background. Fedorov was the fourth Minister of Defense of the war. Not exactly a good number to have gone through when you are fighting for your country. I have shown a handful of clips of him before, but it is hard to make the Ministers of Defense a regular part of the B-roll inclusion when they are not staying around long enough to have broad public recognition. Now, Fedorov does, but not for a good reason.
The Minister of Defense or equivalent of any country is a weird job. Civilians typically fill the position because they are the political bridge between the military and the government. They are not the ones responsible for military planning. That responsibility falls to the head of the military, which can have a variety of different titles depending upon which government that you look at. Rather, a Minister of Defense is responsible for broad political decisions, defense budget allocations, high-level strategic priorities, and policies to maintain the public support of the military.
Technically, Zelenskyy did not fire Fedorov. Rather, the saga began when Zelenskyy urged his Prime Minister to resign for unrelated reasons. This blew up the entire cabinet. Not everyone is leaving the government, but Zelenskyy took the opportunity to make about 10 changes. Fedorov is the only one receiving pushback. I should also note that there is a low-key alternate theory that Zelenskyy forced the Prime Minister's resignation so he could fire Fedorov without directly doing so. To the extent that this is true, it did not work at all.
From here, let me lay out why so many Ukrainians are upset at the news before circling back to why the situation is not straightforward. I should also note that Fedorov and his allies are lobbing a ton of accusations at the moment. However, I want to stick to what is verifiable. The reason is that, whether he wanted to be or not, Fedorov is now a politician, and actually the most trusted national politician in Ukraine, according to a recent poll. Moreover, he has a bright future ahead of him. He is only 35, which will have many of us asking what we are doing with our lives. But more to the point, we need to be careful not to take what he and his allies say at face value. The basic argument among those upset is that Fedorov was simply good at his job. So his dismissal is stupid at best and nefarious at worst.
Let me run through his major accomplishments, covering his 6-month stint as Minister of Defense. You will often hear that he was responsible for the shutdown of Russian Starlink terminals. I think that this misunderstands Fedorov's role. It is true that he had a pre-existing relationship with Elon Musk, but it is hard to attribute specifically to Fedorov the decision on Starlink's end. Rather, Fedorov's value added here was implementing a system that would not have simultaneously shut off Ukrainian terminals. Otherwise, the whole thing would have been a push. You see, the prior ministers of defense were career bureaucrats. Fedorov was a technocrat, someone with field-specific expertise who takes a high-level government position. For example, if someone made a terrible mistake and appointed me to Secretary of Defense, I would be a technocrat. Fedorov was also a tech technocrat, having previously held two Deputy Prime Minister positions involving technology. In turn, it is much easier to attribute the success of the shutdown specifically to him. Again, not the shutdown itself, but rather Ukraine's ability to sustain connectivity afterward.
Fedorov was also responsible for the investment in mid-range drones, which have caused significant problems for Russian logistics on the southern end of the front. Knowing what we know, this seems like a brilliant bet made months ago. But, hold that thought for a few minutes. Either way, the Starlink shutdown and the logistics campaign are the two main drivers of the turnaround in frontline momentum, where Ukraine posted gains for the first time in years, never mind three consecutive months of gains.
Fedorov also had a critical role in some more behind-the-scenes developments. He began a new data-centric program to analyze the results of Russian drone attacks to try to move away from vibes-based responses. Perhaps you recall the point system that rewards kills and captures with additional military supplies, which we have covered over a couple of videos. That was Fedorov's program, originating from his time before rising to Minister of Defense, but expanding afterward. Lastly, on the procurement end, Fedorov tried to shift away from no-bid contracts to lower government costs and increase total production.
Putting all of this together, you can see why there is speculation that his dismissal had nefarious intent behind it. One version of this is that Fedorov was upsetting too many corrupt oligarchs with his reforms, leading them to apply pressure to remove him. Alternatively, Fedorov is receiving the Valeriy Zaluzhnyy treatment. He has become so popular that he is now a political threat to the president, so Zelenskyy axed him before the problem got worse.
Unfortunately, for those who might prefer simple narratives and pitchforks, every story has two sides. Succeeding in outcome does not necessarily imply succeeding in process. If I may draw an ironic parallel to Russia, Russia won the Russo-Georgian War. However, the Kremlin's post-war assessment indicated that Russian forces had underperformed, essentially coasting on having a larger military and sheer luck. Now, it is easy to look at the Starlink and mid-range logistics campaign and conclude that Fedorov's process was just as good as his outcomes. However, that is not the assessment of many frontline commanders. The money spent on all of those drones was money not spent elsewhere, and they are worried that shortages of men and materiel along the northern section of the front have set Ukraine up for a potential disaster. Indeed, you might draw a misleading conclusion here by looking at the aggregate data. During that 3-month stretch, Russia was still progressing in the north. It was just that the south was moving faster. These Ukrainian commanders worry that the situation in the north is going to get worse and render whatever is happening near Crimea irrelevant. Note the irony here that their belief seems to align more with the Russian interpretation of what is happening than the prevailing commentary on social media. Well, it is probably good to take those concerns seriously, especially since Russia reversed the course in June. Preliminary numbers for July also show slight Russian gains.
One of the tricky things about making an inference here is that all fronts are connected, even if the corresponding battles are not. Russia may very well be reallocating resources to the south to compensate for the logistical deficiencies there. If so, then the mid-range campaign might be slowing Russian progress in the north. Assessing counterfactuals like this is incredibly difficult.
The more direct conflict was between Fedorov and Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. Syrskyi has a reputation for fighting centralized Soviet command-style wars. Fedorov, in contrast, wanted to adopt a more high-tech, decentralized blueprint. Again, it is incredibly difficult to judge from the outside who is right. The popular sentiment in both Ukraine and online favors Fedorov. Another part of Syrskyi's reputation is the willingness to sacrifice Ukrainian lives to solve military problems. See the Battle of Bakhmut. That might not be a popular thing to do, but sometimes it is the best strategic thing to do, and someone has to be the bad guy.
One of the public-facing explanations for Fedorov's dismissal is his lack of success on mobilization and recruitment efforts. I have heard some pushback here that he was not given a chance. 6 months is not enough time. Well, this is an active war. If a peacetime secretary took more than 6 months to solve a problem, you would understand. There is bureaucracy and organizational inertia that you have to battle through. When wars are ongoing though, you get to steamroll right through much of that. 6 months is an eternity, 60 times longer than a 3-day special military operation, and longer than most wars last.
The fact is that Fedorov wanted to lean more into tech to make up for manpower shortages, rather than enforce discipline to keep the ranks full. Now, is that the right choice given the political realities of the situation? Maybe. However, the military staff disagrees with that assessment. They see such moves as style over substance, and are very worried right now that Russia will mobilize in the fall, and Ukraine will not have what it needs on the ground to limit the damage. One interpretation of Fedorov's dismissal is that these concerns go well above just talk, and they need to start doing something about it right now.
Fedorov might have also misplaced his hand here. Following his disagreement with Syrsky, Fedorov appears to have approached Zelensky to dismiss the general. But Syrsky has been in office for more than 2 years, and has the more pressing post. So, you would be a long shot to win that battle. Then again, political reality may trump whatever strategic logic may have driven the decision. People are on the streets protesting it. The last time something like this happened, Zelensky reversed course. Will he do it again? We will have to wait and see whether this is the final word.
Meanwhile, this does not have to be the final word for me today. Not when you have access to this archive of Geopolitics Helpline videos. Click away to continue the festivities. And if you enjoyed today's video, then please like, share, and subscribe, and I will see you tomorrow. Take care.