Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in shape, that you are full of energy. Very happy to see you again for this Bitcoin journal this Tuesday, November 18, 2025, facing a crypto dip this morning, but it's being bought back a little bit today. In any case, we are doing much better than the traditional stock market. We have Wall Street in a very ugly red. And the Eurostock, oh my god, I won't even talk about it. Europe is carnage today, at Wall Street level you see ugly candles, almost red or more here for pretty much all the big tech companies. So it's not pretty and I want to tell you that cryptos are holding up well given what the traditional market is taking today, you see, and on our side we could say, let's hope we don't continue to fall because the traditional market is starting to fall, you see.
Regarding ETFs, unfortunately the week starts red. Yesterday, there were 254 million dollars of Bitcoin sold by US ETFs and 182 million dollars of Etherium ETFs sold by clients. Well, today, I shared with you, there is still BlackRock, you see, a few hundred million dollars of Bitcoin and Etherium to sell. So it risks being red again today. Well, the market is still a bit extreme, but hey, these are zones that I personally like. It allows you to do your shopping for small satoshis in areas where everyone is afraid, everyone is selling at a loss. The big whales and long-term investors are feasting, buying cheap little Satoshis. And if you follow me on Telegram, Discord, or Twitter, well, I send you every day, each time, chain analyses that are quite interesting, showing that the big ones are accumulating and the small ones are selling at a loss right now.
You see, as usual, at the altcoin level, a small green candle that is pleasing, consolidating on the Bollinger band here around 615 billion dollars. Now, that doesn't mean everything is good. No, however, there are still nice little divergences appearing. For divergences, we take the candle closes, not the wicks. And when the price falls like this, but the RSI is rising and the MACD is rising, it starts to become interesting. After, as I tell you, every day a bottom, but the divergences are starting to have little bases that are starting to be not too bad to support the altcoins. Now, we don't forget that if the structure validates itself entirely, it's not mandatory, of course, but well, we could have a small correction of about -11% to reach the bottom of this wick. Remember when it was Friday, October 10th, this nuclear wick that affected all the altcoins, the first thing that came to my mind was, be careful, wicks are very, very often tested. The bigger the wick, the stronger the probability of testing. Okay? So, it didn't fail. We're going to slowly bleed, bleed, bleed to retest the bottom of the wick. So for that, you have to be careful, we could go up a little bit but have a little drop after, a little more than -10% to go eat what's unfortunately below, all the liquidity waiting under the wicks.
Regarding our beloved Bitcoin. Well, this morning it wasn't very pretty. It went to seek around 89,300 dollars. The gap was filled, that famous gap at 91,970. Remember when we were younger this summer, your fun of love was saying, be careful, weekly divergence, the gap, as they say, perfect forbar who talks about the gap at 92,000 dollars plus weekly divergence equals attention, attention, well, and it didn't fail. Now, what's very beautiful today, well, some will find it ugly, I find it very beautiful, it's Bitcoin in an oversold zone, okay? Oversold where people don't want it anymore, oh my god, I'm too scared. They sell at a loss. They sell at a loss. There will be the news video this morning. I'll show you that short-term holders, even many of them, are selling their Bitcoin at a loss. Oh my god, oh my god. But go ahead, sell at a loss. I'll take it. I'll take it, no problem. Well, anyway, I can't take it all, I don't have infinite liquidity. Well, but in any case, that's excellent to see. Oversold zone on the Bitcoin RSI. It's rare. These things are seen very rarely. Well, so there are no big divergences appearing on Bitcoin yet, because anyway, the price is just crashing right now, and the RSI and MACD are the same, so there are no divergences on Bitcoin. This gap is closed, so now we have to wait. Can it go lower? Yes. Can it go seek the 382 Fibonacci weekly around 84,000 dollars? Yes, it remains possible, of course, but at some point, we'll have to form a little bottom in this zone of extreme fear and oversold. It's always the same music that repeats itself over all these years. So, we have the little longs here, but they are timid. Does Bitcoin want to start a little short squeeze today? A little short squeeze to liquidate there. Come on, a little 10 billion, a little 10 billion dollars. If it goes towards 102,459 dollars, why not a little 10 billion, that's always nice. Well, so a little short squeeze. Don't be surprised if we suddenly see it boom, because when it goes, it will go fast. Why? Because it won't let the shorts close. It will quickly eat up positions, and since decentralized exchanges like hyper liquid and others exist, you have whales with hundreds of millions on futures, believe me, it goes very fast. It goes very fast because you have to go get those big whales quickly, you see, that's the idea anyway. So I find what we have today rather good. Keep holding on tight, and when the storm passes, everything will be fine. It will be the beautiful sun.
Etherium. Well, the little things that bother me a bit are the gaps on Etherium and Solana. Gap here at 2853 to seek for Etherium. Gap here at 121 dollars for Solana. These little gaps bother me a bit because we're not far, we haven't closed them. A perfect scenario would be for Bitcoin to close its gap at 92, but it's closed. Etherium closes its at 2800, Solana at 121, and then we stop talking about gaps because the others are much further away, you see. Well, and so it bothers me a bit. I wonder if the market really doesn't want to close this gap on Etherium when it's not far? You see, yesterday especially, this mischievous market was only about 3% away from the gap. Ah, I don't really believe in the idea of "no, I won't go for the gap, don't worry." And then it will suddenly reverse like that, you see. Well, so you have to be careful, you have to be careful.
Now, there are still these beautiful bullish divergences that are still there on Etherium, which are quite nice, but I'm wary of this little gap at 2853. I wonder if it won't go there eventually. It has every right to break this little bearish channel upwards and then boom, make a last little bearish leg. Uh, it's a very, very possible scenario because this gap is there. So that's why you have to remain cautious, you see.
At the level of liquidations here, there is a good little cluster. Well, look, 2853, the gap is there, you see. So, will it want to eat about 1.5 billion to reach the gap? It remains possible. So, will it do a quick little short squeeze and then seek the gap? So I would be surprised if it doesn't go seek this gap when it's not very far. You see, gaps are very often closed, especially when we're not very far. You see, Solana is the same. This little gap at 121 is strange, though. Yesterday we were only about 6% away from reaching it. So I doubt the scenario where we see Solana explode like a rocket to the moon and leave the gap unfilled when it was right next to it. The rare gaps that we haven't closed, I'm talking about Bitcoin, were gaps where we were far away, we were far away, then the market pushed too much and that's it, it's over. But here, it's a bit too close.
Now, Solana is drawing magnificent bullish divergences. It's very, very beautiful. So, well, so with this divergence, will they ultimately not close the gap? But I don't really believe it. If I have to stick my neck out, I'd say this gap, eventually, we'll get to it. Solana is making a little bearish channel, it's very good, where it will continue its little bearish channel zigzagging towards the gap and then it will take off again. Same for Etherium. Will Etherium continue its little bearish channel here? Zigzag zigzag up to the gap, that would be super bullish to see that. And then it's an explosion upwards, or they will do an explosion to seek afterwards. You see, a little short squeeze, same here, a little short squeeze to then seek the gap. In any case, for now, it's the scenario that is being considered because I don't really believe in not closing this gap when we are so close. You see, at the liquidity level, moreover, there are quite a few longs open here for Solana. The gap at 121 is there. So Solana deciding "Yes, yes, I'm going to eat all that, I won't be surprised." You see, there's about 600 million to the north, waiting for about a billion. So either it goes to eat a little bit, a little short squeeze, and then turns around to eat the gap and then it's over, it takes off again. Or it will soon, like tomorrow or tonight, start nibbling at all that to go eat the gap, you see? Because we're not very far, after all.
XRP, well, it doesn't have a gap. Well, it's making some appreciable bullish divergences where the price is falling, you see, and then the RSI is rising, the MACD is also rising. So that's rather nice to see. It's holding its Bollinger band well. So bravo to XRP which is around 2 dollars 10. That's good news. Now, similarly, it's bleeding, bleeding, bleeding on a channel. But these are good channels. Bearish channels like this are very good news. The vast majority of channels break upwards. This kind of channel has a higher probability of breaking upwards than exploding downwards, you see. And the longer a channel lasts like this, zigzagging, the higher its probability of breaking upwards. So, will it bleed like Solana and Etherium for several more days to seek its low? And when it breaks 2 dollars, its low, it will have validated its little structure, it can take off again, knowing that its low is at 2.06 dollars. And at 2.06 dollars, where is that? Well, it's right here. You see, where there's still a little cluster to eat. Yum yum yum yum. Around 100 million dollars. So it has every right. I'm not saying it's certain it will do that. Well, but in any case, I find these divergences that are still there to be quite good. The fact that we're going down on a channel, all that is good little things that are quite interesting. Now, well, the Etherium gap is the most violent one, be careful, it could go seek it. And little beloved Bitcoin which is doing a little green move now. Be careful that it's not just a little short squeeze before falling again to seek what's left.
Well, and why am I talking about all this? Because the stock market is not good. You see, if the stock market were magnificently green, I don't know, you could say, well, maybe the gap won't be reached. Well, but I have my doubts, gaps are really often reached. Well, and moreover, the stock market is really not good, not good at all. We have the Eurostox 600, which is the benchmark European ETF, taking a beating. Here we see all the big tech companies, bam bam, getting a big hit. I want to say even the Magnificent Seven are getting their big hit. If you look at this red sting, everyone gets their big slice of red cake: Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, everyone. S&P 500, the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq which is down about -2%, it's not pretty. It's not pretty.
Well, today we had figures, figures from Robert and René. My, the Fed is magnificent. Well, and so we had the unemployment claims that came out at 11 am this morning. Now, regarding timing, it's a mess. I mean, this morning there was nothing. A few hours later, they said, "Yeah, yeah, it's good, we're going to release some figures." So you have to take it day by day right now because when they come back, it's total chaos. Okay? So it's not like before. Usually, we have figures at 4:30 am, 1 hour before the opening of Wall Street. You see, so everyone can calmly prepare and have 1 hour to place their orders and everything. Well, now it's a bit haphazard, but afterwards it will get back to its normal course, I think. So we had unemployment claims that increased. So if you're asking yourself how employment is doing in the United States, well, it's not doing very, very well. After, well, good news for interest rate hikes. The problem is that the market isn't really seeing employment right now, what's happening because unemployment claims have risen. We also had employment in the private sector. Well, which is negative, people are no longer hired. That's it, employment for 10 minutes, simply. So there are job losses that are, well, not as big as we had in October, but we still have job losses in the private sector, you have big companies like Amazon and others that have done some cleaning. Anyway, in their minds, they want AI, cyborgs, androids, you see, and they want to get rid of everyone, that's the idea. Well, so employment is not doing well with the two figures we had today. We could see the positive side in a "yeah, employment isn't doing well, we'll have more priority for rate cuts in December." The problem is that behind that, inflation has exceeded 3%, whether you take general inflation or core inflation without food and energy, both are at 3%, and 3% is a figure that many Fed governors don't like. They are not very keen on lowering rates. And so, what scenario are we in? Well, the same one for over a year. It's stagflation. It's the worst scenario that exists. It's the economy falling with employment falling and inflation saying "hello, I'm here, I'm rising." That's the worst scenario. If you lower rates, you fuel inflation which will continue to rise. If you raise rates to lower inflation, you will further destroy your economy and employment. And that's it. So it's the scenario where Jerome Powell is caught in a vice, and that's it. And both sides are tightened. Big up to Jerome Powell's dilemmas, he must be having a good time right now.
Well, tomorrow, what figures will we have? Nothing important. The Fed minutes. However, since the government was closed, I don't know what they will put in the report because this is normally the report of what happened 3 weeks before. You see, a nice written report, everything is detailed, etc. Well, and the problem is that it was closed. So what will they put? Sorry, we were closed, there will be one line. Well, so I don't think it will move the market too much tomorrow in terms of dates. However, tomorrow evening at the close, we'll talk about it. There will be Nvidia's figures. If the figures are not good, it's like in Gladiator, if the figures are not good. And that's it, and it will be the end.
Well, so at the S&P 500 level today, it's red, not pretty. Now, at the technical level, at the structural level, if the S&P 500 starts to break this low, we can say, okay, it's heading into a more violent correction. Same for the Nasdaq, today we don't really want it to break lower. Same for the Dow Jones. Well, you understood, at the Eurostox 600 level. Well, I didn't put the low because we're mainly looking at the S&P 500, but the Eurostox 600 is not very, very pretty because it broke, you see, this level. Well, after, well, we're looking more at Wall Street, you see, even if, well, it's stinging, anyway, you see that European tech has made the McDonald's M, you see, it's really the McDonald's M, everyone to McDonald's. Come as you are, ruined. Well, and so for now, we also have the Asian market. They are in the red. Everyone is eating a big, bloody red cake, and that's it, so at least everyone is together and everyone is crying together. Now, gold, do you feel the McDonald's M too? You see, do you feel double nuclear tops on everyone? Well, it remains possible. It's clear that if gold, you ask the question, when will gold start a correction? Breaking here at 3886, it could start to be not very pretty, you see.
Now, everything that is crypto-related is green, but it's green from the depths of hell, so it's not very appealing. At the bond market level, they are buying a bit of US 10-year, US 20-year, a bit of US 30-year, but not that much, you see. Because well, they are buying a bit because they think "Yeah, employment isn't doing well, so we're buying these bonds with higher rates," but ultimately they're not buying anything, they're not keen, they're more keen to go back to cash, you see here. So the dollar is regaining some ground. If the dollar recovers its 200-day moving average here, well, it won't be a good sign, you see, if it starts to push like that. So for now, we'll keep an eye on all that. So I want to say, nothing is good, the stock market is not good, nothing is good right now. Cryptos today are not too bad, but you can feel that you have to hold on because the red might not be over, even in cryptos, you see.
Well, after the positive side, we don't forget that good things are emerging. We have, I shared the chain analyses this morning, the news videos showing that quite a few long-term holders are buying. We have an explosion in the number of addresses containing more than 1000 bitcoins. I showed you that in this morning's video too. We have the small ones capitulating, selling at a loss. These are good news in extreme fear, these are good news. We have divergences, these are good news. Well, so there are starting to be some good news, but a good bottom takes time. So hold on a little tighter, a little more time, and it should go well. Sending kisses and see you tomorrow, bye bye. He.