Defending Taiwan: A Strategy To Prevent War With China

Well, good afternoon uh and welcome to our latest Hoover applied history working group seminar. Uh it's a great pleasure for me to introduce uh Ike Fryman uh who's a Hoover fellow uh here and director of the Allied Coordination Working Group. Uh he's also affiliated with uh the US Naval War College, the China Maritime Studies Institute, the Colombia, there's so many here that it would be uh a waste of time to list them all. He's held held fellowships at Harvard where he once upon a time was my undergraduate student. He somehow survived that. Uh he has four degrees in history and China studies from three different universities, Oxford, Cambridge, and Harvard. uh and he's the author of uh several books. Uh one belt, one road was the the debut uh book in 2021. Uh he co-authored a couple of books on Day One with Hugo Brmley and The Arsenal of Democracy, which just came out very recently with uh Hoover Press, co-authored with uh Harry Halm. He's here today to talk about his most uh recent book which is uh just out, Defending Taiwan, a strategy to prevent war with China. He's going to speak for about 20 minutes. Then our colleague uh Philip Zelico will offer his comment and then we'll open it up uh to the room and as usual if you want to attract my attention you can uh raise your name tag like that or otherwise justiculate. Uh those participants who are joining us over Zoom can attract uh Joseph's attention if they have questions to ask. Uh, we've got uh about an hour and 10 minutes the minute I shut up. So, let's get to it. Ike.

>> Well, thank you, Neil. Uh, thank you everyone for coming today. It's a pleasure to see so many people in the audience who supported the book as it came to be. This is a creation of Hoover in the sense that it would not have been possible without the collaborations that began with Neil uh through the applied history working group. Neil helped to support my first visits to Taiwan, gave feedback on many working drafts along the way. Philip, who first put in print the quarantine scenario and helped me workshop these these ideas with policy makers, uh Larry Diamond, who's not here right now, and his group, as well as Glenn Tiffford, Francis Hisgen, Admiral Ellis, and so many others. Thank you. Thank you all. I I'm glad that for a book about deterrence, we've deterred all of you from sitting in the center table. That anyone who's coming in, you should feel area access.

>> You should feel free to uh grab a seat closer to home.

>> I just want to speak for a few minutes so we can get into the Q&A. I hope this can be an interactive conversation. And I want to talk not only about the book itself, but some things that I think we've learned about the ideas in the book uh over the last few weeks as we've watched the crisis and hormuz play out. Uh the argument of the book is straightforward. Taiwan is the place where the uneasy peace between the United States and China will be tested and possibly broken. Uh this is not a new issue. It goes back to the very beginning of the history of the relationship between the United States and the PRC. Uh but it has become increasingly important not least as Taiwan has developed a worldleading semiconductor industry that is now the center of this ongoing AI revolution. Uh, and it is a place that has grown increasingly fraught over the last few years as China has used a variety of grayzone tactics to coers US allies and partners in the region, making clear that China believes it is in a new phase of strategic expansion that it hopes will result in the United States effectively being expelled from the region and US treaty alliances that have stood the test of time since the 1950s. is uh being weakened if not entirely dissolved. These are the stakes. Uh and sheinping is building a full array of options to move against Taiwan. The easiest to grasp is the amphibious invasion scenario, but that's not the only one. He has options for bombardment with missiles and drones that can range Taiwan. He has options for blockade, using ships, aircraft, submarines, drones, mines, and other tools to control the flow of people and commerce in and out of Taiwan. He has a legal apparatus that he has been developing, as well as a coast guard and a maritime militia to enforce it, which could use uh subtler methods to constrain the flow of commerce without using physical force. He also probably has United Front agents on Taiwan that could engage in sabotage or even decapitation attacks. He has cyber options and he's developing these options so that he could use them if desired in combination or in sequence. So if the United States wants to deter a devastating crisis over Taiwan or a war, we need an idea for how we will close off each of these pathways to victory for him. We need to think deductively through all of the possible scenarios. And because Xiinping has a strategy that integrates every tool of China's national power to achieve these goals, we need to think through how our various tools of national power, not just military, but diplomatic and political, technological, uh, economic, industrial, and beyond could be combined to deter him across these full range of scenarios. It's hard to know that much about Caesar Ping, the man. He's a secretive type. He speaks in riddles. All of his public commentary on this issue is very carefully scripted. But we do have an idea from the way that he has operated over the last 13 years in power. That he is methodical in some senses. He is cautious, but he is also incredibly ambitious and possibly opportunistic at moments where he believes that he can seize major gains without encountering resistance. The most encouraging thing that Cinping has revealed in the last 13 years in power is that he is deter that he is deterable because he has been deterred so far. The task of deterrence is not to foreclose the option of seizing Taiwan so much as to persuade him that today is not the day and therefore to wait him out one day at a time. Why does Cinping care about Taiwan there? In the popular understanding, I think there is a misconception that it is largely about chips, but it's not because China cared about Taiwan long before semiconductors were even a story. China and for Caesar Ping in particular, the question of Taiwan status matters because it is fundamentally about what China means. Whether there is such a thing that is one China that includes Taiwan with the Chinese Communist Party as its undisputed leader. And in his point of view, uh, China, the Chinese Communist Party will never be fully secure until the international community accepts that principle. And that's why he's not only approaching this as a military problem. It actually matters very much to him whether the UN General Assembly and international institutions uh are willing to stand behind his principle. And I think we would expect that in any crisis, a crisis short of war as well as uh actual kinetic conflict, there would be political and legal warfare that would be playing out in addition to other aspects of the crisis as he tried to marshall China's friends across the developing world in particular to take his side. It is fundamentally a legitimacy argument. The another reason that he cares about Taiwan is that Cizin Ping has a political program which he calls national rejuvenation which he's promised to achieve by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the CCP's seizing power on the mainland. He has described Taiwan's quote unquote reunification as an essential prerequisite to the completion of national rejuvenation. But it's important to note that while Taiwan might be the keystone in the arch, it is not the whole arch. National Rejuvenation is a staggeringly broad and ambitious political project. It wants to put China at the forefront of human endeavor in literally everything from technology to sports to cultural flourishing. It wants to complete the project of making China green and ethnically harmonious. Taiwan is part of that. Why is Taiwan so essential to it? It's because the way in which Taiwan's status is decided, not just the question of Taiwan itself, but the way Taiwan's status is decided is in so many ways a litmus test of the United States willingness and the US outli structures ability to stand in the way of China as it pursues its national rejuvenation goals. And that's why from the perspective of the United States, if you look at our long-standing one China policy, the concern of the United States is not that Taiwan status will be determined any particular way. Our concern is how Taiwan status is decided. We want it to be done peacefully without coercion, including economic coercion, and in a manner that's democratically acceptable to the people of Taiwan. Because we understand that the stakes of how Taiwan status is decided will extend across the region. and ultimately shape the world in which our treaty allies live and this incredibly important increasingly important uh global economic space uh upon which our most critical supply chains depend.

Let's talk a bit about scenarios. I argue in the book that grayzone scenarios, which we can essentially think of as being the the full spectrum from where we are to the outbreak of kinetic conflict, is the locus of Caesar Ping's attention. It is where we are most likely to be tested and it is where we are relatively speaking less prepared. The military contingencies are serious. They have gotten harder in the past couple of months as we have expended so many of these air defense interceptors and long-range precision munitions in the Middle East. But fundamentally, pulling off an amphibious invasion is an extremely difficult proposition. It requires many things to go right. It's intrinsically costly, highly risky. There's many reasons that Xinping would prefer to take Taiwan for free. take Taiwan without a fight with its semiconductor fabs intact. In some senses, in some of these crisis scenarios, that could even be more of a humiliation to the United States if it is seen abandoning Taiwan entirely than fighting and ultimately being defeated. Uh when we think about these grown scenarios, there are too many to list because there's all these tools that can be combined in different permutations. I highlight two. The first is the so-called quarantine or indirect control scenario that Philillip highlighted with Bob Blackill in what is it a 2021 CFR report. The idea of the quarantine is it's not a blockade, but China would use lawfare measures. It would assert a legal right to control who and what comes and goes to Taiwan. And then it might use various law enforcement threats to coers the private operators FedEx and UPS and Marisk and MSC that carry the people and goods to and from this island just to comply with PRC law. And if they do that, if they aced to the principle that Beijing gets to say who and what comes and goes and the United States accepts that as a new normal, Taiwan is effectively checkmated because over time Beijing can turn the screws. Taiwan will not be able to modernize uh or adapt its armed forces. Taiwan, China will eventually be able to control the flow of chips and all of the critical inputs involved in making the chips and Taiwan will at some point be forced to accept some humiliating political agreement that neuters its effective autonomy. Uh another option that is available to Cinping is a coercive mobilization. he can get ready for an amphibious invasion and just see what happens. Maybe Taiwan's morale cracks, maybe the American morale cracks, maybe there's some kind of financial shock and the uh cracks appear within the US alliance structure and then he can exploit that and he never actually has to use the force. He's building these amphibious forces as well as blockade capabilities and nuclear forces and the rest because he can get coercive value out of them without actually having to use them. And if we think about the situation in this way and we think through the effects on the US alliance structure, on our domestic politics, on the credibility of our alliances globally, on the possibility of a financial shock, of the supply chain shock, when we realize just how ugly some of these crisis scenarios can be, the only conclusion is the object of our policy should be to deter the crisis, not just to deter the war. Because if you can't deter the crisis, you invite the crisis. How do we pull together these tools of our national power to deter the crisis? I'll just hit them very briefly. The first is political and political deterrence has three parts. How you handle Taiwan, how you handle mainland China, and how you handle your allies and by extension the rest of the world. Uh for Taiwan, my view is we should offer relentless private pressure to continue to expand their defensive capabilities to build resilience stockpiles and the rest, but not public pressure. We need to respect that Taiwan's a democracy. It must in the end make its own choices. That will require a lot of discipline, particularly as Taiwan heads into a new presidential election. For China, it's just three magic words. One China policy. Now the content of those words is ambiguous, complex. Different administrations emphasize different aspects of the one China policy. But that term one China policy has a sort of toemic value in our relationship with China. Meding with the policy itself is dangerous. It's better to say we are fully in line with our lawsing policy which has not changed but we will emphasize or deemphasize certain aspects of it. Uh the way that I would encourage modifying the communication of the policy is pointing out to Beijing that just because we are strategically ambiguous as to whether we would go to war with Taiwan doesn't mean that they are pushing on an open door in the gray zone and that if they continue to push by salami slicing their way towards something like a quarantine or something like that or by mobilizing their forces for what may or may not be an invasion, we will not sit idly by and hopefully US allies will not sit idly by and wait for Beijing to make a decisive first move, we will respond proportionately in a manner of our choosing, in a domain of our choosing in the gray zone to create an overall stable equilibrium situation. And hopefully that is a way of deterring season ping from pushing uh the current part of where we are in the gray zone, which you could call midgay to something darker and darker and closer to black. A scenario that risks miscalculation and escalation. The second pillar of deterrence uh is how we get our military in shape to show that we could defeat an amphibious invasion into the 2030s. There's a whole lot of nuts and bolts and how that is done. We can get into that in the Q&A if you'd like. The third is strategic deterrence, which is not just about nuclear weapons. It's about this cross-domain nexus of space and cyber and AI because increasingly it's clear that nuclear forces can be held at risk if the command control and communications apparatus can be cyber attacked uh or if the satellites that play such an essential role in these architectures can be threatened. This is why at some point and I don't know exactly how but at some point the regulation of AI or the arms control or whatever you want to call it of AI will become central to the strategic balance. This is not an issue that is well understood or theorized. But I do think that Taiwan probably plays a role given the central role that Taiwan plays in producing the compute that drives the AI revolution in the first place. And then the fourth and final pillar of deterrence is economic. We have this way of thinking about economic deterrence which is just sanctions. It's a playbook we've developed in the Russia case, in the Iran case, in the Venezuela and North Korea cases. We know the legal authorities. We know how it works. And it's tempting to say, well, China, if you cross our lines, we'll throw the blood you will use the same sanctions tools that we've used against others. The argument of this book which builds on work that I did with Hugo Brmley with support from Larry and Philip and others argues that is not credible. It's not credible even in some extreme cases and it's certainly not credible in most of the gray zone cases because if there is some kind of crisis and the financial and economic reaction is already bad, the politics will not point to making that bad situation worse. And the question the United States will face is if we are confronting the possibility of a long-term attritional economic struggle with China, who is going to win that contest of endurance, the totalitarian communist state with huge stockpiles or our coalition of democracies? We need to flip on its head the way we think about economic deterrence. And rather than thinking about ways that we could punish China, maximize punishment of China in a way that would also hurt ourselves, start thinking about it as what kind of world or what kind of international economic system we would need to create for our own interests if deterrence failed over Taiwan. if China revealed that it could no longer be trustworthy as a supplier of critical components, whether that be medicines or drone parts or chips or the rest. The process of thinking about these questions is no small exercise. It goes beyond the responsibility of any one agency in the US government. We're imagining how global economic order would be reconstituted. And you know, it takes a certain amount of hubris for someone of my level of seniority to even be opining about it. But what I want to argue in the book is we have to start having those conversations now. Because if China reveals itself to be an unreliable player, if they cross our red lines, however we choose to define them, if we decide we need to decouple from China for the interests of our own economic security, not necessarily 100% but 50% or 20% or 5%. How can we do this in the context of an integrated global economy where China sells to Indonesia, which sells to Brazil, which sells to Mexico, which sells to us? How do we know we won't be importing China's goods and parts, but with made in Vietnam or made in Brazil or made in Mexico written on the label? Redesigning the international economic system in a way that recognizes that there's no world in which everyone decouples from China fully and simultaneously means imagining a web of overlapping economic security agreements that we would have to develop over a period of time and through which we would evolve the current international trading and financial system into something that worked better for our economic interests. But as we saw in liberation day, it can't be achieved by flicking a light switch or posting a tweet because we don't have the political commitment or endurance to do that any peace time scenario, I think, or even any grayzone crisis scenario. So, if you put these pieces together, what does it mean? It means we need an entirely new approach to grayzone deterrence. And the anchor of our grazment deterrence has to be economic and political rather than primarily military. It has to show China that we will match them point for point, that we will not give them the excuse that they may need to escalate to war. And if they try to push the burden of escalation onto us, that we have a set of tools that can be calibrated to push the burden of escalation back onto them while deterring escalation from the the darkest moments of crisis to a war. I want to pause here because I want input from Philillip and from others. Uh I just wanted to say thank you to everyone in this room for your attention and I'm looking looking forward to getting into the conversation.

>> Thanks very much, Ray. Philip. So where I want to begin is um first thing it is really hard to write policy books. It's hard because that the timetable involved in producing a book means that often the policy issues move in a way that your book is superseded by the time it comes out or shortly after that and the book or the book has no shelf life. So you're discouraged from undertaking the enterprise to begin with. Then if you try to write the book, you have to write the book at a level of professional policy analysis. Uh mostly uh people who write such books don't know how to do professional policy analysis. They do it poorly. For the handful of people who actually can do good professional policy analysis, they find that actually it's very detailed requires a lot of analytical exposition and average general readers don't want to read it. So it's heroic in a way to undertake a policy book of this kind and then uh therefore it only deepens my appreciation of what Ike has pulled off here. This is the best policy book on Taiwan. Excellent. And Taiwan is the most serious national security danger confronting the United States in the world today. So that though that that is true and that I did this heroic undertaking running against the headwinds I opened up with I think deserves another round of applause.

>> Yeah. Yeah. So my comments on this are actually going to engage Ike and then uh some here at U in a fairly professional way. So um I'm not going to try to dumb this down a little bit because the issues are very important uh somewhat complex and not well understood including by many people in the area. uh I want to t touch on the issue of risk and timing the uh the scenarios the pillars and the strategy just I'll go through this try to be fairly lucid and concise first risk risk what is the risk as I and some of you here know very well they're basically the two schools on shei and China there's a school that worries worries a lot and the school that says you don't need to worry so much. A number of us here are extremely familiar with both these schools and the arguments on both sides. So you can argue Xi Jinping round or flat according to your likes. Um Ike doesn't attempt to come down hard except to say well I don't know but there's a risk and it's a big risk. That's the right conclusion. there's a risk and there's a big risk and we don't know I think in his introductory remarks today so he can argue it round or flat we don't know so you got to plan you got to play as if it might be big so then that raises the issue of timing there is a set of schools of thought on timing there is uh um near-term risk even to the point of this year or next near-term there is a school of thought that says nah 2028 2029 for various for various reasons which a number of us here know well then there's a school of thought is oh there it's always going to be a few years out because they're indefinitely kicking it down the road but 2049 is suitably airy um and here again the answer is don't know um about the timing it could be near-term I think if I may say my impression that Ike's view say on this question a year ago was Ike was more in the 2028 29 or maybe further out. We have some time. It's uh I'm not sure where where Ike is on this today. uh he uh I I mean it's a genuine question is I I sense your views are constantly turning this over and you're watching what's going on in the world and you're seeing the various ways windows are opening or could be closing in certain dimensions and uh and what we do know from history is that dictators sometimes recalculate these matters quite rapidly for reasons that are invisible to outsiders. s and uh it actually overturned the views within their own government in very short order and this has happened over and over again. So you have to worry about the near-term problem. Second area, the second major subject that's worth calling out is uh scenarios. So the world is focused on invasion and blockade. 85% invasion, 55 15% blockade. grayzone is regarded as pressure tactics and kind of well you know we need to be stalwart basically um and gets a little attention because we'll just need to be stalwart very important to notice Ike's argument it's really Ike's argument emphasizes grayzone threats over the invasion blockade threat the grreyzone threat that is highly actionable even in the near term. Then more importantly, which gray zone threats exactly? He calls out two. He calls out coercive mobilization, which I don't regard as a terribly threatening scenario. I think actually could be more counterproductive than threatening, but Chinese might not agree. and he calls out uh the the the uh the grayzone scenario I highlighted which is uh we called quarantine in 2021. Uh I have abandoned that term shortly thereafter and moved to indirect control as Ike knows. Um the re the no the terminology is important. The reason I abandoned it is because people now who write about quarantine all the time merge it and blur it in their minds with blockade and the situation is hopeless. They just regarded as a selective form of blockade which it is not. It is not. Um indirect blockade is a form of coercion. I'm going to strangle you so you'll surrender. Quarantine is basically presented as a selective blockade to coersse you to surrender. The indirect control scenario is a completely different scenario. It doesn't involve coercion to surrender. It doesn't even involve coercion at all necessarily. China's only inter Taiwan's only international legal status is as a separate customs territory under the WTO. That's it. separate customs territory of whom you might ask. The Chinese have an answer to that question and a lot of conventional international law understood by many countries would support the Chinese answer to that question. Hong Kong is a separate customs territory under the WTO. In 2020, the United States government announced it would no longer recognize Hong Kong as a separate customs territory under the WTO and it would from now on treat the PRC as having full customs sovereignty over Hong Kong. We said that was purely a US decision, didn't affect the WTO status. Someone must have reminded them about Taiwan status. We did that six years ago. uh China could do the same to Taiwan tomorrow, saying that Taiwan no longer has full autonomy over its external commercial relations. It would not be hard for China to figure out how to make that argument. If Taiwan lost its status uh as a separate customs territory from the PRC's point of view, many things would follow from that, none of which automatically involve the use of kinetic force at all. And what this does is it doesn't blockade anything necessarily. It just means that anyone who ships to Taiwan ships to Taiwan under different rules which t uh the PRC can selectively choose to enforce the way it chooses to enforce other things, diverting things to the mainland for customs clearance as needed and so on. Now, uh, it's just really important to understand this is not a quote pressure tactic to get Taiwan to surrender. This simply changes the status quo regarding Taiwan's commercial relations and then many things would flow from that over time. Um, I uh recognizes this point and this it's important. And I'm dwelling on this for a moment because the whole chapter on grayzone is pressure tactics, pressure tactics, pressure tactics, including the introduction of this measure. But Ike then points out at the end of the paragraph, a quarantine need not be a coercive diplomacy exercise designed to force Taiwan's immediate capitulation. Instead, it might aim to, and here he puts it in italics, incrementally establish the norm that Taiwan no longer has full practical control over its economic interactions with the outside world because you've now affirmed the PRC's economic sovereignty over Taiwan, which will have many consequences, including who has sovereignty over the AI revolution. So that's great. So but again they call it the key point for Mike's work gray zone most important danger and then within grayzone he believes this is one of the two leads in my view it's the number one lead and I think I'm not the only person involved in these issues who holds this view. So almost 100% of the public conversation on invasion blockade this is the most serious threat and this is the most serious form of threat and it's not in the public discourse at all. So then you go to the deterrence measures. You see, u um the Ike does a very good job in the book of handling the military and strategic measures that are associated with the invasion blockade scenario. And I'm not going to go into that because I think that's actually um I think they actually fundamentally the US government a lot of the US government fundamentally agrees with his characterization of invasion blockade. He treats blockade in a way that would get it very quickly up to war if you read the way he analyzes what we would do about it. Um though it it's an extremely challenging version of the war actually in some ways more challenging than the invasion because it involves mainland targets and things like that as he points out and then the US government's approach for how it handles in he has a list of what it should do. I think the US government is on track to try to do many of the things he discusses. So in that sense, from a policy point of view, we're in good shape, though we may not be doing things just right or rapidly enough and so forth. So then, uh, it's worth then focusing on his political pillar where he wants to substitute strategic ambiguity with structured ambiguity, which he briefly alluded to here. And by the way, I think his argument on that is sound and in creative and interesting. You're left then really with focusing on the economic deterrent pillar. And here I want to call out a key analytical contribution of the book. If Ike is right, Ike basically says your standard recourse to massive sanctions on which the Biden administration by the way tended to wave at is uh illan analyzed and probably will not work and you won't be able to implement them. I think his argument on that is very powerful. He makes a further argument that another stock answer is which is the Malaka straight blockade also won't work for various reasons. He could emphasize, he does hit it, he could emphasize even more that basically if everybody gets blockaded that way, it hurts Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan much more than it hurts China and much faster. So, and but then they would figure this out. So, you're then left with okay, where's what's my economic pillar? He then hits very hard working using the work he did with Brmley the idea of the economic security cooperation board and avalanche decoupling. I think this is a terrific set of arguments. It was creative and on day one it's still very strong. He basically he and Brmley worked this up in a period when they didn't know that what the Trump administration would become and now you see what the Trump administration become. And boy, this is now a tall hill to climb to get to back to the policy approach he has in mind. Now then, where does that leave you? If your lead threat is this grayzone threat of this particular kind and your lead deterrent pillar to counter that threat is the political approach he outlines then plus an economic deterrent approach that can't rely casually on sanctions/mala that has to rely instead on something more akin to the a pre precrisis planning. He made this great comment by the way about the tur of the crisis not just the war. Terrific point. And then that works you towards this economic security cooperation concept and the avalanche decoupling concept which is very advanced thinking about core cooperation among our key economic partners from which the Trump administration is currently steering at kind of a 175 degree angle away. Um, so then you're saying, okay, if that's what's going on, that's the lead danger, these are our lead counters, that's the condition of the policy on the lead counters, we're in a world of hurt potentially. And then you have to hope that it's not in the near term. So then what's our answer then to world of hurt? And this is actually a big important point that is what is the grand strategy of the United States if we actually don't have a viable strategy for the lead threat danger. I believe the view uh I think the Biden administration tended to have a grand strategy towards this of appeasement and delay. They don't use words like that, of course, but appeasement. Appease the Chinese enough so they will not want to do anything that does a big change in the status quo. And we kick the can down the road for another few years, at least we won't be in office. And I believe the Trump administration has adopted fundamentally the same gener general approach. Their notions of how to mllify China are different in detail, but the idea of mllifying China so that they'll not they won't do anything radical to change the status quo in the near term while meanwhile we have our military buildups and do all the things that will eventually close the window of opportunity for China. If the Chinese will just hold still long enough and be mllified long enough to make all that work out and then I don't have to worry about the hard problems people like Ike Fryman are posing to me and that in a way is the the strategic the core strategic conundrum that I think Ike's book presents.

>> Thank you very much. Well, I'm sure there are many many questions and I remind you to attract my attention or Joseph's by raising your flag. Uh, I'm going to kick it off. Uh, I agree with it. It's a tremendous achievement this book and uh, so I'm going to go to some of your specific recommendations that we haven't really dug into. Um towards the end of the book you seem to be arguing for an Asian NATO which I think we should call Ipto Indo-Pacific treaty organization. Uh and that's that's sort of the mechanism institutional mechanism to make avalanche of decoupling happen. Uh as I was reading the book I kept thinking the historical analogies here which are occasionally explicit are 1940s ones. it sort of we we need a we need an alliance. Uh it needs to be treaty based. Uh we also need something like a Marshall plans. So there are economic incentives. Uh uh and maybe you need Carl Vincent's two ocean Navy act or something similar to beef up American military capabilities. But I wonder whether we're capable of these 1940s style efforts. uh you know my views on American fiscal constraints. I won't go on about those. It feels to me like who joins Ipto is the question. I can see Japan doing it u and maybe also Australia, but who else? The incentives look totally different from the ones in the 1940s because what do the Soviets have to offer really? Well, uh, the Red Army, but China has to offer massive trade, uh, which seems to me like a pretty strong argument against joining Ipto. So, that that's really my key question. My follow-up question is if a lot of what you and Harry wrote about in Arsenal is happening that the United States is getting its act together, what does Cunping think San Po is doing? What does he think our plans are? and have we thought through how he might react to the perception of a rapid change in American attitudes towards deterrence and also compellance.

>> Well, thank you Philillip for these very generous and detailed comments and thanks to Neil for the questions. Let me try to answer Neil's question in a way that addresses some points uh from Philip's comments. Uh the argument of the book is that we need to build a core coalition and that coalition I believe should comprise essentially the angophone countries plus Japan. Canada because you know abuse them though we though we like to we are in a free trade zone with them. We are not realistically going to decouple our economies from Canada and therefore we are in the same boat on economic security if deterrence fails over Taiwan. Japan well it's quite obvious for Japan right they're for them Taiwan is existential and they now acknowledge it publicly as such. Australia which has been with us through thick and thin and which we've learned and which learned in the Pacific War that uh the American alliance is of vital existential significance and the UK our best friend in the Euro Atlantic which happens to be deeply deeply financially intertwined with China and which would therefore suffer a devastating financial shock if there were to be USChina decoupling in any form because what do HSBC and standard chartered essentially the UK's two largest financial institutions do well what they do is they intermediate trade between China and the rest of the world. So any kinetic scenario in the Taiwan trade any scenario in which the United States is imposing sanctions on China decoupling from China in any meaningful way the British are involved whether whether they like it or not. And it's not as if the United States out of uh cold-heartedness could just let the British come to harm and then avoid a UK financial crisis spilling over to Wall Street. The European Union is fundamentally a different case because it's a block of 27 countries that decides things by consensus. At least in economic and sanctions and trade policy, they do things by consensus. 27 people can't figure out what to order for dinner, let alone how to decouple or whether to decouple from China. So, I think you can't count on the Europeans to do any particular thing. And the Southeast Asians, which include treaty allies like the Philippines and Thailand, are also in a difficult position because they are subject to such overwhelming and asymmetrical coercion by China. And South Korea in a sense is is part of that category as well. You would hope for partial cooperation, but you can't know any what the character of that cooperation would be. But with this so-called core coalition of the US, Japan, Australia, UK, Canada, we're talking about 40% of global demand and roughly half of global defense spending. That's a big enough block to work with, at least to start. Now, not all of those countries would necessarily take exactly the same positions, but I think the goal should be to align as much as possible on the politics, on the diplomatic communications to China and Taiwan in the grrey zone. For example, if we have some gray zone crisis and the US is communicating one thing publicly and privately, and Japan and Australia are communicating something very different, that is a huge credibility problem. It opens up our alliance uh to pressure because Beijing will then engineer situations that drive wedges uh into those disagreements. In terms of military preparations and so forth, this is the basic coalition I think to involve in our military planning. Japan is not part of the five eyes intelligence sharing block. Japan is hustling to build the counter intelligence apparatus that would allow it to participate in a block like that. But we are moving closer towards you know operational integration between our armed forces between an ability to share intelligence freely and I think that process should basically be accelerated. If we're talking about an Indoacific NATO in some form in the purely defense or defense industrial space that is essentially the block we're talking about. When you're talking about defense industrial defense technology you need the South Koreans too. The South Koreans may not be reliable to do any particular thing in a Taiwan crisis, but for now we need their knowhow uh to make ships. We need their industrial capacity uh their high bandwidth memory to make our semiconductors. Uh we completely rely on Hanoa to replenish our uh magazines for air defense interceptors. Uh Ukraine depends on South Korea. So South Korea is in many ways part of that coalition. When we're talking about avalanche decoupling and the economic domain, I think this is an entirely different thing. An entirely different thing. And thinking in terms of a of a coalition or a rigid in-group and outgroup is the wrong way to think about it because, you know, I think of Elbridge Colby the under secretary of defense for policy going to South Korea and saying, "Will you pre-commit to doing the following things if China moves against Taiwan?" And the South Korean said, "Are you kidding me? You won't pre-commit to doing these particular things. So why would we? You're leading. So why do you want us to be out in front? In the same way, if the United States has no idea what it would do economically if China moves against Taiwan, then none of our allies have any idea either. And in the event depending on the nature of the situation, the politics of the situation, what China had done, what the risks were perceived to be, that the political constraints would move. And then in that moment we would know what was possible, what was not. Product by product, sector by sector, technology by technology, we would figure it out. And there would be a vin diagram of what the United States was able and willing to do and what various allies were able and willing to do. And on the basis of that, you would figure out things that the US was going to do unilaterally or that other countries would do unilaterally. And then areas where cooperation was possible in groups of two or in triads or larger formats. When we're thinking about our economic response options for a crisis, I think this is the way to think about it. Not not a specific package that is pre-esigned and pre-authorized like the British economic warfare plan against Germany was pre-authorized in World War I and then they took it off the shelf and they realized it was useless because the city of London wouldn't go along. You need a flexible framework that will allow the precise character of the coalition to emerge through negotiation in the event. And more broadly, uh, when I say an overlapping web of economic security agreements, that's really what we're talking about. Because I can imagine a scenario in which there's some kind of crisis. The United States says, "Well, for economic security, we can no longer depend on China for the following 25 industries. legacy chips, medicines and their inputs, medical devices, drones, go down the list. And Japan says, "Well, we agree with you on 18 of those, but we've got another set of things that we want to decouple in." And Australia says, "Well, we agree with you on this number and you at this number, but we have some other ones that for you need a basis for doing that." And then you need a basis for partnership with countries that are not treaty allies at all, but which you would hope would align with you on standards or some kinds of trade measures, for example, with Mexico or Brazil or Vietnam, these countries are never going to decouple 100% from China, that's fantasy. So if they're decoupling 10% 30%. Or if you just need them to enforce your rules of origin while you decouple by 10 or 50%. Uh that is all going to be subject to negotiation. And the way to think about this is an international economic order that emerges through a process of these sorts of negotiations over a period of time because that is the only way to do it because today onethird of global manufacturing value ad lives in China and you can't just snap your fingers and make that capacity move someplace else. The process takes years. Uh so that is how why we should be thinking about mechanisms that can be calibrated. Now, why is this politically plausible? Because you're right, in a context where the United States wants to do everything unilaterally and we're publicly dunking on our allies, it's and the or we're politically divided and so forth, why how is this even conceivable? Well, be the answer is you have to think about the alternatives which are really really bad. First of all, what is the choice that China is trying to present us with in these grazing scenarios that um or the indirect control scenario that Philip describes? They're essentially trying to present us with three options. Option A, let Taiwan slip away while pretending that nothing is changing, which means in the long term we lose the compute. China sees the fabs intact. We fall far behind in AI. We are hollowed out economically. The rules of the road of the international economy don't change. We can choose to put up trade barriers and block out the world if we want, but basically China is charging ahead and the world has to continue with the status quo of openness to China's products and technology. So in other words, avoid the short-term crisis but lose in the long term. Option two is escalate it up into a war, which in principle we can do, but you judge for yourself about the willingness of any president to do that, let alone this one. And then the third is to essentially press the big red button on the resolute desk which says financial crisis that ends my presidency which and that option looks like disabling the fabs which we can do kinetically or remotely uh and then if we want to taking any number of bilateral measures against China. So, China is pres trying to present us with this choice, three terrible options. And they're betting that we will keep picking option A because option A is the default. Option A is the do nothing option. And therefore, we will follow the path dependency into option A. And their strategy is to make option C, the big red button, look as big as red and red as possible. And the basic idea of all

of our economic security work and avalanche decoupling is to make the button look less big and less red. I'm going to stop you there and because you may preemptively answer everybody's question before they get to ask them. I'm going to go to two people who are leading authorities on this issue first uh and then uh once they've uh posed their questions we we'll widen out the list at the moment I think is uh seven names. Let's start with Larry Diamond and then go to Jim Ellis. Larry.

Okay. I certainly don't claim leading authority on this. I've never written a book on Taiwan. maybe on anything else that approaches this. But anyway, I'm gonna make four brief observations, okay? And and really brief and and ask you to react at some point. The first is I think we're approaching an analytic consensus that what what looked like a long distance in time to crisis when Jim and I and Carus were getting started uh with this Hoover project, you know, we were talking about a 10 or 15 year timeline. you know the uh the range you're presenting to us is like 2029 or 2030 is at the outer end of when uh crisis or very significant strategic choice for the US comes and um so that's the first thing is I I don't think this is we might be able to kick it down the road but the moment of truth is approaching.

The second is um kind of an opposite perspective on this. When would be a better moment for China to play a coercive card than when most of our force was deployed halfway else around the world and we had you know emptied a lot of our strategic arsenal and were in fact starting to lose a war of choice that we had in my view imprudently launched. Uh so I think it's rather striking that uh and revealing that Xiinping must think that now is not the right time. They're not ready unless third um he's waiting to see what happens next month when he meets a president um who I don't think has distinguished himself for his strategic vision and judgment. Um and maybe they are wondering uh what they can get in a private meeting uh with President Trump uh in which the president may do what he did with Putin and ask that the notes of the translator be ripped up once the meeting is over. Um, so I I'm a little bit worried about what happens next month when a weak uh uh a strategically weakened president meets with a strategically rising self-confident uh Xiinping and China.

The fourth um and last point is um I think we must not lose sight of um the way that what happens in Taiwan politically will will will shape the parameters and timing of this and um so she must be feeling very good about the visit he had from the KMT pretty pro-China chairwoman Chang Lee Woon. Um, but we don't know how long we're talking about this internally. She's going to last as chair of the KMT because there's a big division within the party. And it seems clear to me he's waiting to see what's going to happen in the January 28 presidential election. Uh, I mean, it's now sufficiently close, you know, barely a year and a half away. So, why why take unnecessary risks? uh if he might get a government that is much more one he can do business with. But if um Liching Da is elected again to his second term as a president who is not only of the party that she doesn't think he can do business with but is on the anti-China end of the spectrum of that party uh well beyond what uh you know the kind of posture uh that uh Tying Wen had. Um I I think we're on a path toward crisis not long after the reinauguration of uh DPP president lies. So those are my thoughts. I don't know if you have any reactions to >> Thanks. I'm I'm going to go to Jim if I can cope with two.

Well, thank you. I can uh thanks for allowing us to be a part of your your journey here at at Hoover and the number of excellent publications that you've uh you've produced. We're proud to uh to be associated with you and in some ways even get our names mentioned in dispatches here as the Brits would say. So appreciate that. Uh what I really admire about the approach that you've taken and I used this example yesterday in a conversation. Uh I picked up some uh some insights at the National Space Symposium, the classified session last week and the uh what you've done is what they said needed to be done in another context. You're no longer writing about what we have to do if deterrence fails. You're instead writing about what we must do in order to ensure deterrence succeeds. That's a subtle but very important distinction and and I commend you for that. Philip lets you off the hook by saying you wrote this some years ago before the Trump administration. I'm not going to be so kind. I think agency is still an issue here. How do we accomplish this? How do we go through the the things that you've you've talked about? Uh you talked about the uh the economic security coordination board. That sounds like something out of my condo association or something. I think you need you need to uh need to go to uh to a better marketing strategy than that. And I'll talk about that in a moment. Uh you know, it reminds me of the old apherism about how you deal with the submarine threat in the Second World War. And the scientist said, "Well, it's simple. You just boil the ocean and that'll force all the submarines to come to the surface." and they said, "Well, how do we do that?" and he said, "That's not a science pro scientist problem. That's an engineering problem, not in my field." So, I don't want to let you off with that kind of a uh you know, we need to think about that because as has already been pointed out and Larry has has said so eloquently, the conditions aren't ripe for that. U super national organizations at large are in disrepute. uh uh the the collegiality that would be be necessary to bring the financial, the manufacturing, the edge technologies and the and the energy sectors together in a cohesive way. This is going to be dogone difficult. And so I'm interested in your thoughts, not in an accusatory sense, but how would you think about that? And and I can acknowledge that as we saw in the uh in the beginning of the Second World War from an American perspective at least that you know public opinion can change overnight and things dramatic events can can bring that to the four and uh you know whether it's awaken the sleeping dragon or or or whatever uh the America first movement the first one went away overnight literally on on December 8th and uh and so of 1941. So I think about that.

The other piece that I'm interested in is u I'm no longer sure that you're either, you know, that even the title of the book is right because it's no longer just a Taiwan initiative. What you're talking about is dealing with the broader China threat rich large uh for in in a global context. And and so, you know, it's almost as though if we do these things, we've got the beginnings of or not the beginnings, we're well along a path of of defining a a very a very different future as we're trying to do with the uh uh the the commons initiative that Philip and and others are leading here. I mean, in a sense, that's what we're thinking about. Uh when we began to discuss the commons initiative, Philip was kind enough to describe it to me and said I said, "Well, where does national security fit?" And I says, "Oh, it'll come along." Well, what you've said is what we are doing and what we're doing addressing in the commons initiative, the ideas of finance and manufacturing and uh edge technology leadership and energy supply and like that is the essence of national security in a sense. So, we're designing a national security architecture on the fly and I think it's it's going to be broader than that. If we begin this with to deal with the the Taiwan crisis, I think we're going to end up making Taiwan actually a lesser included case in that. And I' I'd welcome your thoughts on that. I mean uh the degree of difficulty piece I I don't want to overestimate it but we all remember the the Thomas Carlilele quote that you know the stumbling block in the path of the weak becomes a stepping stone in the in the path of the strong uh we need to lift our knees a bit higher I would argue in in all of that and finally to Neil's point if we're going to name the security architecture and I've been a proponent of a formal military architecture in the region uh uh for a long time I would say IPS so Indoacific security organization which in Latin means by itself and that means out without China. So thinking about that going forward.

Thank you.

Excellent classical illusion there. Um, okay two sets of questions Ike. Uh timing if not now when or is it just uh January uh 2028 and then is it really just about Taiwan? Are you actually coming up here with the rudiments of IPSO?

On timing, my personal hunch is to agree with Larry that he's waiting until after the party congress, after the Taiwan election to decide how to move. This is not a man who in the past is taking risks in party congress years. Less time, last time, less we forget, he locked everyone in their house for a year while he was reshuffling the central committee. I think given what we've seen in the PLA, it's safe to expect that there's more purges coming. And if I were Cin Ping, I would much rather wait it out, get a new central committee, a new PLA leadership who I can handpick and then get them in writing, giving me a a mandate to push harder against Taiwan. That would, I think, derisk some of these scenarios uh in which he could potentially overstep his mandate and come up against internal resistance. But we will learn a lot based on what we see at the party congress in terms of whether successors or potential successors are elevated and we will learn more about his thinking based on the peaking knowledge of who gets who gets elevated. 2028 is a difficult year also because there's a Philippine election and because we have a presidential election and I I think that seems like the window where we are our coalition will be maximally disorganized and he will be uh maximally comfortable taking risk. Obviously, we need to be ready for something at any point. But I think that is the the period of greatest greatest danger.

So let me get back to Neil's question because I think I didn't answer it fully the first time and it aligns with Admiral Ellis's question as well which is how can in the current context we even talk about an economic security cooperation board and all the rest. I would say I would say this I talked about these three options that China is trying to present us with. If deterrence fails in any way, the choices will be very, very, very bad. And any of those choices will involve major political costs, risk, and consequences for the people making them. If you let China seize Taiwan and the fabs intact and all the rest and you are teeing up further crises to come possibly imminently as Russia and China and other adversaries test our credibility globally uh the question becomes are you prepared to deal with that and if that then forces you to extreme economic measures are you ready to take them if we're actually contemplating sanctions let's talk about some of these extreme scenarios if you want to talk about inflation or taking away the economic futures of the American people. The fastest way to do that is a hard decoupling from China. We got a taste of it in those terrifying days after liberation day. I think it would be very difficult to imagine any political leadership taking that option seriously. So if the choice is reduced to essentially acquies, let China win uh and pay the long-term costs associated with that. If we do not have a bipartisan coalition that coaleses around another option, then that is the path that we as a nation are on. And that may well be the most likely situation. And we can all exercise our own judgment about how likely that is. What I'm trying to do is articulate that there is a way that we could go about resetting our economic relationship with China in a way that can be spun on a bipartisan basis as an opportunity and not just as a punishment. And the way to sell the opportunity is something like this. We made a series of mistakes over the last 40 years becoming economically interdependent with a state capitalist totalitarian uh regime that does not share our interests or our values and which wishes us ill and which wants to exploit our economic interdependence to blackmail and coers us. And it has become an abusive relationship. And we therefore need to get divorced or begin the process of getting divorced. And divorce is painful. Divorce is difficult. Divorce is expensive. But sometimes divorce is necessary. And it provides an opportunity to think from a blank sheet of paper if we could actually reimagine what the global economy would look like in a world where China didn't automatically get to dump on us in every industry. If we got to bring manufacturing jobs back and revitalize communities that have been hollowed out, how would we do it? If we could bring millions of these jobs back, how would we do it? What how would we do it in a way that would make our society wholeer, more trusting, it would repair some of the damage to our social contract? Now, obviously, you wouldn't do that all at once, but if you can present it in that way, that is what I mean by talking about it as a Marshall plan, a story about an investment that you make now to build confidence in a better future.

All right, we're going to have to be super disciplined in the final phase of uh the seminar. I want uh each of the questioners to keep it tight starting with uh Leo Speda uh then going to Jian Ren uh then Steve David Fedor and Rua and then we'll get to wrap it up. So lightning round Leo.

Yes.

Um so I love it. Um the one question I have >> the second edition is a fourth pillar in the political uh portion political insurance of you know preparing not only the Taiwanese but ourselves. Mhm.

I mean, we saw you didn't have the benefit of the Iran uh where we cannot get the majority of the American people to support a very legitimate claim and then what that a legitimate crusade against the Iranians and what that means. So, uh interested in your take on that. The second part is I I I don't agree with you. I think it's still a hypothesis that Xi Jinping um you know is deterable. My hypothesis from watching this for seven years and being two years on the front is that especially in the military perspective which I like that you're using the political and economic more that we have been doing push-ups in front of someone who doesn't want to fight and we are just tired uh and we are you know using readiness and where I'm really worried about that is our senior military and political leaders think that we are doing the right things and that's giving bad training data to the algorithm which then means your algorithm is not going to be very good when you need and I see Neil staring at me and I would love to hear your thoughts on that.

Try to resist the temptation to have two or more points. One point Gre is peripheral as selfish because it's tied to my research. So what should be the US policy short to long term about Taiwan's formal diplomatic relations with countries like Paraguay Biz because yesterday Lightinder pulled off his trip to Africa which was due to like a Chinese pressure on several African countries on several African countries on several African countries on several African countries on several African countries on several African countries on several African countries on several African countries on several African countries on several African countries on several African countries on several African countries on several African countries on several African countries on several African countries on several African countries on several African countries on several African countries on several African countries on several African countries on several African countries on several African countries on several African countries on several African countries on several African countries on several African countries on several African 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