Our State of the Markets Quarterly Webinar | Elliott Wave Plus

Good evening. This is Sid Norris, uh, and I am the owner and primary market technician at Elliot Wave Plus. I've got a couple of helpers, uh, that help me through some of the chores that we have to do here, but, uh, this is mainly my gig.

And, um, this is, um, our quarterly, and I, I used to call it the premium plan quarterly, uh, webinar, but I've decided to change the name of it because it becomes somewhat all-inclusive, and I show a lot of my current work. The quarterly state of the markets webinar. I thought that was pretty, um, appropriate, especially today, as, uh, we really seem to have, uh, confirmation of a, uh, of a trend change in, in the stock market indices, uh, taking place finally on, on the US. Uh, it's not set in stone yet, but, uh, the probabilities went up quite a bit today that, uh, we have probably seen a significant, uh, just the beginning of a significant trend change in, in the stock market indices.

So, um, I think there will probably be a lot of, uh, viewers of the recording on this one, uh, as it comes very, uh, on the exact day that I think it's sort of hitting home that, uh, that's what's going on. So, this is the quarterly state of the markets webinar. Normally, I try to show you all the things we do here at Elliot Wave Plus, but because it was such a key time in the markets, I prepared a number of slides that I want to go over, and, uh, we, there will be some current analysis in there, and there will be quite a bit of, uh, showing you some really good calls that I've made very recently on the markets, and, um, some situations, s, uh, where [sighs] >> [snorts] >> um, things that I showed 3 months ago in this webinar have, uh, come to fruition clearly, uh, and, and it was quite early 3 months ago, back in mid-October, when I did the last one of these, uh, on many of these, uh, trend changes, and they've all pretty much panned out the way I thought.

So, um, before we get started, I'd like for you to be aware of my disclaimer. It's at my website, elliotwaveplus.com. Please go there, scroll to the bottom of any page on the site, click on this terms of service disclaimer tab right there, and there's the disclaimer. It's there all the time. If I were to summarize it in one sentence, it would be: there's risk of loss in all trading. Uh, while I'm at the site, if you've never been to the site, please go there and rummage around. Um, I happen to be logged in as a, as a subscriber right now, so I have access to, um, all of the most recent editions of EWP screenshots. It's, um, many dozens of screenshots that I put up for paying subscribers, uh, every Sunday and every Wednesday. Also, um, webinars. I record every, uh, Sunday webinar and put that up, um, the recording of it, and you can go back many, many weeks. I have, I had nothing as far as my history. It's all there for you to look back on. Um, by the way, on, um, recordings of webinars, um, they all allow you to jump on directly to my coverage of specific items during the webinar. So, you don't have to sit and watch the whole thing all the way through. It's, it's, uh, we, we put chapters on it. So, if you have one particular thing that's especially important to you, or one or two or three, you can jump to my coverage rather than watching the entire webinar.

Also, uh, we, uh, on a nightly basis, even for our lowest price tier, uh, subscribers, will put up a trend report that has the daily trend direction on a number of popular traded items, as well as our Elliot wave count on Bitcoin and Ethereum. And then also, uh, our premium plan, uh, has, um, uh, algorithmic, uh, signals on, uh, probably about 20 different items. Their momentum, u, uh, signals, as well as a nightly report that shows what signals may have showed up on, on daily charts. A sell signal, or possibly a, um, take-profit signal, exit signal, or, or move the stop and a trade management. You know, it, when something is yellow, it, uh, is usually telling you to either exit the trade or trail the stop.

So, uh, all of that is, um, kind of a quick synopsis of what we do at, uh, Elliot Wave Plus, which is quite a lot. But today, I wanted to go through, um, some screenshots. Um, and, um, first thing I thought I'd do, since, u, many of you in the room are not paying subscribers, you maybe you would consider subscribing. Well, I want to give you some reasons why you would want to do that. Number one, this is a screenshot, um, that, um, I took back in, I would say, uh, it's hard for me to read. It's up there somewhere. Yeah. October 31st of last year, suggesting that, u, we were, um, getting a rotation. Let me take this, uh, video off of myself so you can see the whole screen. We were, um, embarking on a rotation, uh, away from the stock market and into commodities. Away from the stock market and into commodities. So, this is the commodities priced in the stock market. So that's, um, uh, what, what that chart looked like, um, back in October. Here's what's happened since then. We've seen a little bit of a bottoming, bottoming process, and now it looks like it's wanting to break out and move. And I think that this particular commodities, um, index is pretty heavily, um, uh, on the oil and gas sector. Maybe not quite as much in the metals, and that's why it's been a little sluggish, because the metals obviously have been ripping higher until they, uh, till very recently. [snorts] But I think what this means is, uh, we're going to see energy, um, we're already starting to see it, and this is what I was predicting back in October when I showed that last chart, that this would break into a potential wave three to the upside, where there would be a massive rotation out of, um, financialization stocks, you know, bubbleicious AI high narrative stocks, fang stocks, into something more real, you know, and actual commodities.

Also, back in, uh, at that last, um, webinar I did for, u, everyone and posted it up on, on YouTube, that was back in mid-October. This is a screenshot from that, uh, webinar, and I was predicting that, uh, we would roll over and see AI stocks give way to, in global energy stocks, and I was pointing out that there was a big divergence showing on this chart, and was even, even could wave count the ratio chart, and, um, that this was obviously a 3-5 divergence, and Elliot a wave. Many times, you get the high point of the momentum, or the, in this case, the RSI at the peak of the wave three. And, and even though it moves substantially higher during the wave five, the momentum, uh, indicator cannot make as high of a high as it did back here. In other words, there's a bit of a loss of momentum as it finishes off that fifth wave. Well, here's what happened. That's what that looks like now. And now we're getting a trend line break. That top occurred right there in late October, when we're getting that rotation for out of AI and into energy.

Also, back in October, during that same webinar, I was showing you that same bearish divergence on fang stocks, riceed in global energy stocks, showing the same wave count. Here's what's happened since. Perfect. Matter of fact, it, uh, it, uh, later, after I did that original one, I put up a Fibonacci target up here for the end of a wave five. And usually, uh, my favorite, almost always my favorite target for the end of a fifth wave and Elliot wave is, uh, so in this case, black one, two, three, or five, would be where wave five is 618 times the net travel to one through three. And that turned out virtually perfect.

Also, um, back in, uh, October, late October, I was predicting that we would, uh, see a rotation out of growth stocks and into value stocks. And this is the screenshot I showed during that webinar, showed the massive bearish divergence and overbought condition, as well as the Fibonacci target for the, uh, for the end of a wave B, where it makes a new high. But we're really still in a correction since November of 2021, and, and expanded flat. And here's what's happened since. I just took this one today. So, we're getting a, a rotation, as predicted, out of growth stocks and into value stocks.

So much so that I have started, uh, something else I'm doing with the service. I'm doing something called, um, a buy low port model portfolio. So I have a model portfolio of of current stock holdings that, um, at, at this point up here, were left for dead. The, the market had basically forgotten all about them, as they were thinking all they could think about was, uh, Nvidia and the like. Well, that has reversed, and it's becoming more obvious by the day, uh, that, um, and I'll let the cat out of the bag, you know, that model portfolio that I'm keeping and sharing with, u, paying subscribers to, uh, at the basic plan level or higher. The basic plan is the $70 a month, basically screenshots plan or higher, not the $25 a month plan. Um, [clears throat] I share the holdings in that and, and write a little, um, a few paragraphs about what happened that day and anything that I did with the portfolio during that day. That buy low portfolio, and I'll talk about that more later in, in the webinar, with is currently up year-to-date, um, about 11%. That's 11% in 5 weeks. And what that portfolio does is it buys the forgotten stocks that we're, we're seeing a rotation into them. Frankly, most of them are in the energy space, and there, but there's a few in other sectors that seem [snorts] to follow with energy big energy, uh, trending moves, and those being chemicals and, um, fertilizer. There's a few other.

This is the screenshot I showed, uh, at the last webinar, uh, that I did free quarterly webinar, back in, um, around Halloween, late October, and I was calling it a top on the NASDAQ and the end of a ending contracting diagonal. Here's today's screenshot. The, the NASDAQ has been unable to make a one tick higher than when, when that webinar occurred. Now, to get, it's ground sideways, and it's possible that this last bit of sideways movement was actually a truncated fifth wave, and it, the end of the super grand super spike wave three was just, uh, last week. That's, that's a different way to count it. However, um, the, the NASDAQ has not made a higher high than, than that exact high back here in late October, around Halloween. And notice I was projecting downward movement through late December, up through approximately February 14th. Though that we got downward movement actually into late November, and then a sideways upward grind until, uh, last week. Pretty close.

Also, notice that a 18-month cycle trough, it's a Hurst cycle analysis, was due in late July at that time. And, uh, the last, and notice we're still looking at July, and here we are 3 and 1/2 months later. That's called Hurst cycle analysis, and it is my secret weapon. And what I do is I marry Hurst cycle analysis with Elliot wave, and just combine them, and I use my little noggin to figure out how they could work together. And that shows how well that can work.

Same thing happened in Bitcoin. So, this is the, the Bitcoin call back in late October. I was calling for a top tick in Bitcoin. And, uh, there was the, uh, target zone at the time. There was the Fibonacci target. Um, and, um, then I was calling for downward movement into January, late January, and then up into July. Well, here's what's happened on, on, on Bitcoin. The downward movement is, uh, lasted not just into late January, but into early February now. And it appears to be carving out a five-wave structure. Also, it has broken through this trend line that I had here on, on the, on there before. Now, I think, uh, according to Hurst, where it's, the reason it's been moving down so aggressively recently is it's puking down into an 18-month cycle trough due about now, and it is in a five-wave structure. It has an extended fifth wave. Um, and Hurst is calling for a bounce. But that, as, uh, I remember when I held that webinar, I was, um, basically, there was one particular guy in the, in the room. I was saying that Bitcoin was going to crash and eventually go to zero. And he sat there and argued with me, argued with me in the chat quite a bit, that, you know, I needed help understanding Bitcoin, and that he, he'd send me an email and maybe help me understand Bitcoin better. Well, there's, there's the way it turned out, and, and that massive five-wave structure indicates we have a new obvious new trend direction in Bitcoin, and trend break, and that that direction is down. This is just the beginning of a much larger move down in Bitcoin.

This is something called Hurst cycle analysis. So, I just referred to it. I use it extensively in my work. Now, this particular Hurst cycle analysis is, uh, I'm using all of the, uh, data I have going back to 1950 on the S&P, and, um, I can start the data and maybe a little more recent and get slightly different, u, uh, dates on this, but, u, many times when I'm, especially when I'm working with individual stocks, I'll do a Hurst, and I'll do something like this. I'll work up a, a, a roadmap on, uh, on what Hurst cycle analysis thinks is going to happen next on an item, and I can do that on, in just about any individual stock, or any commodity, any currency, you name it. And this has been basically the roadmap for as long as I can remember. I mean, is, uh, really, if you go back to, uh, 2020, March of 2020, the springboard move up out of that low was so aggressive in, um, the Russell that it nearly reached, um, my target for the end of a fifth large degree fifth wave up by the time it got into 2021. Very aggressive move. And it was at that point that I started floating the idea that up from the, that intermediate or black wave four low in March of 2020, we were going to see an ending contracting diagonal where wave one of the diagonal would be the longest of one, three, and five. And it, it would take several years for the Russell to make its way back above that high back in 21, 2021, 2020, uh, 2022, that's exactly the pattern that ended up happening. And so all of this movement up from this low, April of 2025, which I was wildly bullish, [clears throat] and I made a public, um, I made it my webinar public at that time. There was just a couple days after that low on April 9th, I think it was, that you [clears throat] basically said you could buy almost anything here and it's going to go up. And that absolutely turned out to be true because it was an 18-month cycle trough, and that's Hurst tech, u, terminology. And then, um, so as it progressed through this structure, we've got a 20-week cycle trough, and then we got a 40-week, 40-week cycle trough, which, uh, I believe occurred in, uh, late November. And this last move to the upside, Hurst has been saying, "Well, we're, we're going to top in February." And I did this just yesterday, and I, and, and I bet if I did it again today, it probably pull that date a little closer to us. But I was expecting a top in February, and then a move down generally into the next 18-month cycle trough. This is, I've been saying this that we get an 18-month cycle trough in basically the third quarter. I've been saying this for months and months and months and months, and it's almost universal. The reason is because that low back in April was a universal low of at least an 18-month cycle trough in everything. Everything bottomed at the same time. It was, it, matter of fact, it would just like the low back in, uh, March of 2020. Everything bottomed pretty much on the same day [sighs], and that's what happened back in April of last year. So, the, it's been following along the Hurst analysis and what it's expecting next, and I suspect we've seen the top. And the reason I think we've seen the top on, on most, uh, most indices is because of the price action we saw today. Um, I don't think it could, it's going to manage to make any more highs on most of those indices, um, on later in February. Now, what it could do is it could bounce and quote unquote stay up until late February. So, this initial move to the downside may nearly be finished. Then we get a bounce. But notice almost universally there's a 20-week cycle trough due in the stock market in late March, and then there, and, u, then there's a 18-month cycle trough due approximately in July. And so I think what we're going to get is a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 down into approximately July, maybe August, on the S&P here now, and then we're going to get a rebound out of an, an 18-month cycle trough. Notice that this was an 18-month cycle profit. So, this should provide another really good buying opportunity in the third quarter of this year on many items up through late in the year. So, that's just a general idea of how of of a Hurst cycle roadmap.

Also, here's an FSC cycle tool roadmap. So, the FSC is a foundation for the study of cycles, and they have a cycle tool there that I refer to from time to time. And, um, I suspect that the market is going to have a hard time staying up into March, but notice the presence of a large cycle trough in August. And it does its job completely different from Hurst. So, this is sort of a way for me to check and balance between the two, and then figure, look at the internal wave structures, and figure out, you know, what's going to happen next based on utilizing all these tools.

So, what we end up with is this, the S&P, and this is the weekly chart, and this is today. This is my wave count. And I've showed this, I don't know how many times over the last several years, of an ending contracting diagonal where one is the longest of one, three, and five. So, one and blue. Wave two was a little confusing at first. It was kind on the shallow side. Um, and most way, most times in a diagonal, it's deeper than that. But, um, I stuck with the idea that this would be a three, and this a four, and this four came down, and in the Dow, the NASDAQ, the NASDAQ composite, and the Russell, on that wave four, all moved down and over, overlapped the top of wave one in the S&P. It found, it just fell a couple ticks short of it. But I believe that's exactly what happened anyway. So, this is a wave four of a diagonal, and wave five. And usually, in a wave five of a diagonal, you get this throw over of a line extending from the extremes of one and three, and that's what we get. We've been in, been in this grinding throwover for two and a half quarters, maybe. But notice, um, especially after today's price action, I doubt that it can stay up as long as Hurst thought it could. I think that's probably the top. And we're going to start moving down into this 18-month cycle trough. Notice that Hurst, when you're doing, and we referred to it as an 18-month cycle trough, but the 18-month cycle troughs have been running short. They've been running 15 months. There's the first 15-month cycle, then the second one, the third one. Notice they're not perfect. The fourth one. And now we're past the midpoint of this one. And it's time for it to start, uh, releasing down into, u, uh, July, maybe August timeframe. So, this, uh, move to the downside, if my wave count is correct, will need to be in five waves. Um, I think this is not only the end of a five-wave up structure from March of 2020, but it's also the end of, of a five-wave up structure from the 1970 or 2009 low, the 1974 low, and the 1932 low. Now, that may scare you, but, um, I think the thing that has been driving this market higher has been a bubble driven by a narrative. Um, and, and what we've ended up with is, um, about 10 stocks constituting half of, of the entire S&P index. Well, that is, um, historically an, an extreme, extreme situation. And so, I'm, in my opinion, we would be able to, as we see some of these stocks that have been blown way up into the stratosphere based on narratives, the AI being the, the latest narrative, which actually, as it turns out, and they started talking about it today, I've been talking about it for quarter, several quarters, is that the AI is a black hole for cash for these enormous tech stocks. And how that's good, I don't know. Now, that there may be in the future, turns out being something awesome, um, well into the future, but I think what we've seen with AI is, um, so something where [clears throat] is very similar to the Y2K, uh, mania about the internet. As it turned out, the internet was hugely important. It was a game-changer. But everyone piled into anything with the word internet in, involved with their business, dis, description, to the point where it was, um, severe, severe overvaluation. And it was going to take many years for them, for for those on most of those stocks to make enough money to even deserve any kind of valuation like that. I mean, a lot of those companies, they went under. Of course, there were several that that ended up being the dominant companies today, like Amazon. [sighs]

So, um, there's the wave count on the S&P. The next thing that I think is going to happen is, is that we're going to make our way down in five waves down into, uh, July, August timeframe. This first wave one is probably going to move down into a 20-week cycle trough due in March, maybe late March. This exemplifies how, um, a very few stocks, uh, are, are constituting such a large percentage of the S&P. And, and notice that this is a one-month look at the returns on these stocks. So, most of the, the big, the really big losers are the ones that were leading the, um, the, uh, AI parade higher. And notice what energy, uh, stocks have done in the last 30 days. Uh, they've outpaced everything on this chart, as I predicted they would. Um, this is a, a current chart of, um, the stock market priced in crude oil. Um, as weak as crude oil has been, it's been stronger than the stock market since the beginning of this year. It's, and, um, I would have to say it is still dramatically low. It's a bargain. The world is not going to stop needing oil, even if we went into recession. Well, a recession is where the, the economy isn't necessarily growing anymore. Maybe it's shrinking a little, maybe one or 2%. Most recessions are only a drawdown of 1 or 2%, where you, you know, the GDP is slightly less than it was before. That doesn't mean that all of a sudden nobody needs oil anymore. That, quite the opposite. Um, the, the, uh, population continues to grow. Uh, underdeveloped countries continue to develop, and there's still going to be demand for energy, big demand moving forward. And the recession, I don't think, is going to affect the, the, the energy prices that much because they're so dramatically cheap right now. Here's, here's an example of that.

So, uh, here's crude oil priced in gold. And this is a wave count. So, I don't know if any of you have been around long enough. I know, I know some of you have been in the room to remember when the front month of contract in April of 2020, in, in crude oil, went negative officially. You know, it was down to about six bucks a barrel. April of 2020, the best buying opportunity in crude oil ever, ever. And then it moved up in an impulse out of that low through June of 2022. Crude oil did, when priced in real money, gold. That was a huge inflationary blast that was gooseed by, um, two, 2.1 trillion of money printing here, then sent off to mailboxes. And then, um, about in here, another 1.9 trillion sent off, and much, much of that sent off to mailboxes. And so that, that just continued to fan an inflationary flame that had already been well lit, and then we get this deep pullback. And so, as gold has been ripping higher recently, and we've got this deep pullback, but I can count it from an Elliot wave perspective. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 for A. ABC for B. 1, 2, 1, 2, 3, 4, 3, 4, 5. There was the best target for the end of the fifth wave, where pink wave five would be equal to the net traveled to one through three, pink times 618 on a similar chart. And you can see it very nearly reached that low. And I would say that that bottom is in. We, we've seen that recent crash in, in the metals. We've seen, uh, oil unaffected by that crash, and we're seeing it start to pop off this low, and we got two bullish divergences on this ratio chart at that low.

How about silver? Well, um, I, I can sort of see a diagonal, a megaphone pattern with an extreme, extreme blow, blow through, blowoff top in silver, including a throwover on the diagonal, and now a re, very dramatic reversal back inside the, above the, the broken trend line. That bottom also is probably in. And it's being suggested on this weekly chart also by the, uh, RSI.

How about natural gas? This is interesting. Natural gas priced in real money, gold, starting in January of 2001. That's about when the big, um, move to the upside in gold started. 1, 2, and then 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 for three. And then an expanded flat for four. And then a 1, 2, 3 triangle for four. Terminal thrust from the triangle for five. Slight overshoot of the best Fibonacci, uh, target for the end of a fifth wave. And then a dramatic reversal. So, um, I think what we're going to see moving forward is, we're going to see energy, oil, and natural gas stronger than gold.

This is the oil services ETF, which has been moving up nicely since June of last year, is priced in, it's not really priced in crude oil. What, what we've got here is, uh, oh, yeah, this is, this is, uh, those that, those stocks priced in crude oil, and so they started rallying while crude oil was languishing still, starting in June, and it was only in December, mid-December, that crude, um, latched, latched on to to that, um, uptrend, and now they're trending up together. That's starting December 2025. This often happens where you, the, the smart money will start loading in when they see, um, the underlying, which is in this case is crude oil, um, way too cheap. They'll start loading into, um, some of these excellent companies that do that produce in that sector, or in this case, uh, provide services like this would be like Halliburton, uh, Baker Hughes, and the like. And I think we're really close to a breakout here, um, [clears throat] and, uh, notice that, uh, I've got a wave count on crude oil of up from April of 2020. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, followed by an A, B, C, and that, that narrowing wedge moving down, that is bullish. And when, but I think we're pretty soon we're going to see a breakout here on crude oil out of that declining wedge.

This is a Hurst cycle analysis on crude oil. Just took it, uh, yesterday. That most recent low in December was, um, highly likely to be an 18-month cycle trough. And [clears throat] so, what we've gotten up out of here so far, I, is highly likely a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 wave structure. We have a new trend direction in crude oil, and it's up. Now, this is looking for a little pullback, the composite line, during the month of February. So, this orange line is something called the composite line. Now, if any of you would like to have a document that explains Hurst cycle analysis better, it's the called the 10 Core Concepts of Hurst Cycle Analysis. Send me an email. It's sid@elliotwaveplus.com. And so, I'm, I'm not going to give you a full Hurst lesson here, but, um, I will say this. Um, um, I first added Hurst, uh, cycle analysis to my toolbox back in, I think 2013. So, I'm about 12 years in. It is a dynamically, it's just genius idea by this American engineer, J.M. Hurst, that he developed on mainframes back in the '70s. Absolute genius idea. And so, it, it's able to, um, through a model where it looks for, um, for instance, this was a, this low back here, according to the Hurst, was a 4 and 1/2 year cycle trough, and then in each 4 and 1/2 year cycle, you get an 18 months to three 18-month cycles. The first 18-month cycle occurred here, and that was divided by two 40-week cycles, and that 40-week cycle was divided by two 20-week cycles, and each 20-week cycle is divided by two 8-day cycles, and each 80-day cycle is divided by two 40-week cycles, and it even goes on down. I'm sorry, 40-day cycle. And it even goes down to a 20-day cycle, 10-day cycle, and a 5-day cycle. And it goes up above a 4 and 1/2 year cycle to a 9-year cycle and an 18-year cycle. And you can see the composite line is bullish on crude oil, period, end of statement. And, uh, you know, that it's, it's really bullish until early June. And the composite line can be deceptive. It could be making a new high over here above this high. For instance, this pullback may not be as deep as this. But what it, what the composite line does tell you is it suggests what the direction is going to be. And as a trader, that honestly is really the only thing you need. If you know the direction, then, then, uh, you've got everything you need to make money as a trader. And, and but the other thing is you need to know about how long to stick with a trade. And this is what some of the supposed YouTube gurus that talk about, oh man, this, this is a super cycle. There's a super cycle in silver. It's going to go to 500. Just stick with the trade. Keep, keep with it and stuff like that. Um, and, and they give round figures like silver's going to 500, or gold's going to 20,000. Well, um, anybody just throws out these simplified round figures, they don't know. They don't have an actual Fibonacci target for it. So, how are they developing their target? How long do they know how long it's approximately it's going to go up? Is it possible that they could hedge during larger pullbacks, or do they just have to just buy it low and sit on it forever? You know, to me, those guys, just, those super silver bulls, they just creamed a bunch of potential traders. They, they took him out of the game by being too bullish and not saying how long or warning of what a parabolic, how a parabolic move typically ends in, in metals. There's a bunch of people just got, got their clocks cleaned, and they're out. Uh, none of my subscribers, by the way.

So, that's a Hurst cycle analysis, and looking for a little pullback into the third week of February. So, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and we'll probably get a B, C wave two into mid to late February, or moves higher. Notice over here is saying watch out, and these are sell signals. So, it's look, it's, it's saying watch out for a pullback down into this, and this would be an 80-day cycle draw, 80-day cycle trough. So, this is what that means on a weekly chart of crude oil. And when I take that and I apply it, and I use my Elliot wave, you know, marry it together, idea, and it's bullish for crude oil.

So, you might say that is ridiculous, Sid. You're calling for a crash in the stock market, but at the same time as you're calling for a, a big bullish move in crude oil. There's no way that's going to happen. And I'm, I think that they, that is exactly what is going to happen. And that the higher crude oil goes, the more of a problem it becomes for most of the stocks in the stock market. Their energy costs will go up. Here's why I'm, I'm bullish on crude oil. Two reasons. Number one, on in April of 2020, we got a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 wave structure up out of that low. Clear as a bell. And that low, remember, crude oil actually went negative. You can't find a lower low to start with than that low in April of 2020 on crude oil. A 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Well, an Elliot wave. And if that's coming from a significant low, which obviously it was, that has to be either wave A of a zigzag or wave one of an impulse, period. And therefore, this sideways price action we've been seeing for about 3 or 4 years, and it, it is clearly and it's clearly corrective. It's not impulsive, not like this was. Has to give way at some point to, to another fivewave structure to the upside. Well, um, that's then we can look at Hurst, and you can see that these 18-month cycles, and how they're stacking up. And we, one was due in approximately February, just using manual phasing. I didn't even need, uh, CIA Trader or, or in a Hurst cycle analysis for that. But, um, Hurst is now, u, calling this low in mid-December the 18-month cycle trough. Came in a little early, actually. And, um, so then we got to look at this on Hurst. This is a 9-year cycle trough. Of 1, 18 months, 2, 18 months, 3, 18 months equals a 4 and 1/2 year cycle drop. So, this is a large cycle drop. Then you get the first 18-month cycle after that, and then the second one. The second 18 of the three 18-month cycles within a 4 and 1/2 year cycle would be the most bullish of the cycles in Hurst. Now, I've drawn it where it doesn't reach these Fibonacci targets up here. These Fibonacci targets are scary high. They're up 4, 500 bucks a barrel on crude oil, possibly by the end of this year. I, I won't even surmise what possible thing would cause something like that. But anyway, I'm, and, and it's not my job to surmise narratives. I'll let, I'll leave that to the, to the people on Financial Propaganda TV. They can come up with the narratives. I just do the math. And this is potentially very bullish. And, and so what I just showed you before was that it was bullish up through early June. Then it gets a pullback down into August. And then maybe it goes on up through the end of the year. Well, I think when I put that together with Hurst, with, uh, Elliot wave, that means we're going up through to June. This is probably a wave three, and then you get the wave four pullback for August, and, and then, then you get the fifth wave up. Remember, in Hurst, this orange line does not indicate price. It indicates direction. So, it could make a higher high over here than it does here. This could make a higher high here than here. But what it's predicting, and I found this profoundly useful, is when it's going to be moving up, and when it's going to be moving down. When it's going to be moving up, when it's going to be moving down. Uh, so that's crude oil bullish.

And, um, by the way, another reason, um, that crude oil could rally while the stock market corrects is because oil stocks constitute about 3% of the S&P right now. Back in, uh, 2008, they constituted close to 20% of the S&P. Exxon was, um, I think for a minute, the most profitable company on earth, and it has remained among the most profitable. But, as, uh, as, um, AI stocks, fang stocks, Mag 7 stocks have captured the imagination of traders and money managers, um, the oil stocks and energy stocks have been forgotten and left for dead. This is what forgotten and left for dead looks like. And so they could rally big, and since they're only 3% of the S&P, the S&P could crash at the same time, and, and we could still have big winners in the energy space. This, I don't think we've ever seen a market like we have right now where those two things could happen at the same time. I think this is something utterly new.

How about natural gas? Well, it's bullish. There's that 4 and 1/2 year cycle trough. First 18-month cycle after it, and now we get the second 18-month cycle, which should, should be bullish. So, there's my wave count on, on natural gas, or I'm using the UNL ETF. Uh, [groaning] put two of those in there for some reason. Yeah. All right.

Exxon Mobil. [clears throat] Don't look now, but Exxon Mobil's moving up fast. This has been why, uh, as I showed you that, that, uh, heat map earlier, that why we've seen Exxon Mobil and Chevron up like 20% over the last month, while, while the stock market is flat. Um, and, and check out this wave count from this low back here. This was, uh, back at the 2020 low. 1, 2, 3, triangle for four. This would be a terminal thrust from a triangle. Thrusts from triangles are quite aggressive. They don't pull back. They don't pull back much. However, in this particular case, um, notice that, just like in the S&P, I'm expecting that pullback into the third quarter. I was showing August, maybe July, August there. In this case, it's looking like September. Um, I think we're going to get a mid-year pullback that could be substantial, led by the SM, the, the regular stock indices, and we'll even get it in these, uh, the new leadership stocks, energy. And so, this is why I, I think it's going to be important this year that, even though, um, a, a person can can invest in this, they're going to have to be light in their feet and not just, you know, oh, I'm, I'm just going to buy a bunch of Exxon Mobil, and I'm going to hold it for a couple of years. Well, you know, you might be extremely disappointed if you did that, uh, because, uh, you might see some nice upside through, uh, June, and then you see, if you bought now, you may actually see it go negative in September, and then, and, and then you kind of going, well, that, that didn't work. I'm just going to bail. Forget this. So, in, in, in my opinion, you've got to stick with the wave count, the Hurst, see it through, see if it pans out, and there's going to be times where you want to take profits or lighten up or hedge. Short-term, we're overbought. But would that is a natural occurrence in wave 3s and in, and in thrust from triangles. They get overbought and they stay that way. It's different than, you know, normal wave three is not a parabolic move. We, we just saw a couple parabolic moves recently that were just absurd, and, and how overbought they stayed for extended periods of time. This beyond extreme CVX, and the second largest oil company in, in XLE. So, you got, I'm showing the two leading, u, inte, US headquartered, integrated oil stocks here, looking to very similar roadmap up through early June. And then you got that pullback, the end of the third quarter, and then more upside. But, but notice something they both have in common. A pullback into the approximately the third week of February next. And I think that started, that started. I think that, uh, a lot of times when people see how bearish the market was today, they start taking profit on some things. But I, I think we'll have a very similar situation on oil. And if you look back at the year 2008, the, um, actually 2007, the S&P peaked in October of 2007, and started slowly starting to to give way to the downside, and then it accelerated down in, um, to through, uh, late 2008, and really didn't bottom in, in the fifth wave, uh, until March of 2009. But crude oil ripped, skyrocketed to the upside. It during 2008 up into a, a blowoff top high in July. Well, the, the, the crash on the stock market had already begun. I mean, it was well underway. And in, in a way, the, the, the price of crude oil moving up as high as it did then exacerbated the, uh, stock market crash.

So, you might be saying, well, you know, what's, what's going on with the dollar? Everyone's expecting the dollar to be extremely weak. In the prediction with, uh, the gold and silver Super Bowls that figured, excuse me, figured that gold and silver would just keep ripping to the sun, no problem. And, and that that was going to be accompanied by extreme US dollar weakness, as it completely, as the dollar collapsed. But the most recent Hurst cycle analysis cycle analysis on the US dollar is telling a different story. Um, this is a Hurst cycle analysis starting in, uh, n 1984. So, the, the US dollar, uh, index peaked in 1985, and way, way higher, way higher. And, um, so I can do a real long Hurst analysis. I can start it all the way back in 1971, if I want to. And it's saying that pretty soon, within a couple of months, we, we got an 18-month, 18-year cycle trough due in the US dollar. Well, there's going to be a bounce out of that kind of, that kind of trough. So, the question you got to ask yourself is, did we just see it? Did we just see that large cycle trough in the US dollar? And if so, how long is the US dollar going to go up here? I think we might have just seen that bottom on the dollar. And the reason is because we, it was accompanied by that final burst of parabolic behavior on gold and silver, and that, um, we're going to see a stronger dollar. I know it seems absurd, because you, you get, you hear all these narratives. Oh, well, they're, they're, they're just going to keep printing money. They're, they're, they're blowing out the budget with, uh, military activity, and, and, and so they're just going to print more, and, and that's going to, the dollar is going to collapse. Well, uh, that's a narrative, and I just don't buy out on, buy off on any narrative. I don't think there's a reason to when you can be tech, completely 100% technical, and be right quite a bit.

So, um, on the US dollar index, um, most of the rest of this, this year, um, um, this is calling for a rally. And the US dollar, well, that's, that's going to be a dramatic headwind for metals. Um, and I, you know, this could change, and this might end up being the 18-year cycle drop. Also, I'm, I'm only drawing it up through December 12th, but the fact of the matter is, and what I'm not telling you here, I'm sort of telling you, is that composite line is bullish from May 10th, right now. Bullish from May 10th all the way into June of 2027 on this roadmap. So, I wouldn't fall in love with the idea of, uh, the, the US dollar collapsing. I mean, as you know, everybody, 99.99% of people get paid in the US dollar. They pay at the grocery store with the US dollar. They pay all their bills with the US dollar. Um, [clears throat] there's no suitable alternative at this time. And if, if the, we do swing into, as a global economy, something different, it's going to take a long time, a long time. You know, traders shouldn't have to care too much about that long time business. You know, it, it's best to keep the, you know, what's going to happen over the next few weeks and months in mind.

So, you might, this is, this is an interesting one. Uh, okay, show you this one first. This is, uh, the US dollar weekly candles, and we got an overlay here of gold, that's the orange line, and silver, the gray line. And they, those are inverted. And it shows how, um, this US dollar weakness was, uh, perfect medicine for gold and silver. It's exactly what they needed. And, and so, but the big question is, and you can look at this huge bounce on silver here out of this most recent low in the US dollar, kind of indicating that this could be an important low in the US dollar right here. Um, and it also, I think, indicates to me that in order for gold and silver to move higher, they really need the US dollar to move lower, generally. Generally, just a general statement. Well, what about crude oil? Well, this is, um, the green line is the US dollar. It's not inverted. And, and this, u, these candles up here.

Are crude oil. And they're not inverted either. And as you can see, crude oil and that's here and the US dollar are actually highly correlated. They're actually highly correlated. And which means if we get a stronger dollar, I don't think that hurts crude oil. As a matter of fact, uh quite the opposite based on this correlation. And I don't think many people, uh, know this. You know, the opposite correlation, the dollar and metals, everybody knows about that, and they kind of assume, oh, well, that must be the case with all commodities. No, it's not true.

So, here's the gold, my gold chart. This is just the weekly. And yes, gold stretched further than I thought it would. Although, I will tell you that on that October 2022 low, in almost real time, I saw it as an, uh, Hurst was calling that a 9-year cycle trough. And it was also calling the October 2023 low an 18-month. Um, and you can see it just blew out the top of this channel. This, this Elliot, this is an RN Elliot channel where you connect the extremes of two and four. You put a parallel copy of three, and it blew out and the top of that and kept going in parabolic fashion. Uh, I'm old enough to have been around during a parabolic top, and that was silver back in 2011. And it was just shocking to see how far it continued to stretch and how it curled, curled to the sky and kept ripping. And I kept drawing, trying to draw Fibonacci targets for it, and I couldn't find any that that worked. It just kept going. And, um, but in this case, there is one that I, the Fibonacci target that kind of works, and that is, uh, where black wave five. So, we can't see, see black one back here, but we've got black one, black two, black three, black four. Whenever you get a, a super extended wave five, and about as extended as you, you ever see, of wave five is where it is 1.618 times the net traveled of one through three. That is, that is a super duper extended fifth wave. And I had that target, and it bl, even blasted through that, but then it came right back to it, and now it's kind of hovering around there. So, I think that Fibonacci target kind of worked, and I think that's a significant top. I, I did add a potential alternate count where that would be the end of a, of a black or intermediate degree wave three, and then we get a, a black or intermediate degree wave four. But this is what Hurst is expecting. It's expecting a, a move down into mid-2027, mid-2027 on gold. Next, if it just moved back to this wave four low right here, it'd be back to 2500. So, um, gold dropping in half over the next, uh, year and a half is my call. We'll see. Uh, but, uh, all the sub [clears throat] all the proper subdivisions are there.

This is my wave count on silver. [clears throat] I showed this last time, and silver once again, it, it, it threw over the the line where I was expecting a throw over, but the throw over was massive. It was just unbelievable. Um, but it still qualifies as an ending contracting diagonal, a five-wave structure. This chart goes back to 1973, and each wave looks like a three-wave structure. The, the only weird thing about it is how huge that blowoff throwover was. Uh, here's the weekly chart on silver. Amazingly, Hurst had all of this right. Uh, and, um, I even had the, a black wave four at this low back here, back in December, or actually early 20 April of 2025, April. I just didn't know how parabolic that that thing could get. Um, it really just went absurd. And but it still carved out, in my opinion, a five-wave structure. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. There was an extended target, and actually didn't quite hit, and that was be where black wave 5 was, uh, 1.618 times the net travel to one through three. But it blew past most the others. But the amazing thing is, I had this, uh, level on my chart around 60.85 and with this one around 80, as probably as far as it would go. It blew past those, but then it came right back down to them. There was all kinds of warnings, uh, coming from my, uh, custom-designed money flow versus RSI indicator. And Hurst is bearish for the next couple of years. It's bearish next down to to September of this year. That happens to be about the same time that I'm looking for that 18-month cycle trough. Notice this, this AC 18-month cycle trough is the same place as US stock market. April of last year. So, yeah, the third quarter of this coming year is the next 18-month cycle trough. There's so much smoke being blown about this still. Don't, don't watch out. The silver's next move. It's 500. Da da da. But I've seen this movie before, back in 2011. It was hard to call a top. It blasted by, but when it finished, it was done. It was terminal.

Here's a really interesting idea. And, and, um, this is 30-year Treasury bonds priced in gold. And I just really been keeping this chart, um, out of curiosity. But starting in August of 1998, I think we have a clear five-wave down structure, probably complete. And, and wave five was extended. It was equal to the net travel to one through three on a similog chart. Could it be that this is the new, um, dawning of a age of a rally in US Treasuries? Um, and I know it doesn't make any sense to a lot of people because who would loan money to the US government at this juncture? But [clears throat] the chart is interesting. Has a five-wave structure down.

Junk bonds are, and this is a new chart. I've never even shown it to my own subscribers. I worked it up yesterday. Um, junk [clears throat] bonds, right? Treasury bonds. So, junk bonds are considered risk-on. Treasury bonds are generally a flight to safety item. And, um, usually junk bonds are highly correlated with the US stock market. So, up from March of 2020, 1, 2, 1, 2, 3, 4, 3, 4, ending diagonal for five, truncated fifth wave top. Baby, this also suggests that that we could be right now, right at this juncture, it's still flipping from a risk-on to a risk-off environment. Notice this enormous divergence here, bearish divergence as we progress through this choppy, overlapping wave five. So, and, you know, I'm frankly, I'm not sold on this concept quite yet of buying Treasuries. But I think that based on today's price action, and we, we got some, some buying in Treasuries, I, there's a hell of a lot of money managers out there that use, they will move their clients' money into Treasuries, out of stocks when they, when they are fearful. And that could have started today. Notice I didn't put a wave count on this, but you can see this declining wedge into this low, and then a potential five-wave up structure out of that low. That that was back in, uh, July of 2025, July of last year, followed by, you know, kind of a noisy deep retrace, but it did not make a new low. And another potential, kind of a declining wedge concept. This, I think might break out to the upside. And I, I got to tell you, analysis on TLT thinks that Treasuries are going to go up, and that would mean, uh, ye, uh, bond yields go down. So, rates coming off. That is not what it, almost no one is predicting. They think rates are going to go higher, and no one, and there's no demand for Treasury bonds. And there's no way they could move to the upside. And when everyone believes something like that is when I'm really interested to see if, uh, Hurst analysis thinks the opposite. And it does.

Okay. Next part of the presentation, uh, is, um, our proprietary momentum algo charts and sortable backtesting and optimization results spreadsheet. And then I'll, uh, finish off, uh, the organized part of this with, um, showing you something new that I'm developing. It's my new buy low portfolio. This, um, portfolio, I started it several weeks ago and started sharing it with subscribers, and it's, uh, so far been doing very well. It, it was up, um, double digits, percentage-wise, just in January alone. Most of the holdings there are in the energy space, but there's also a few others. And, um, the reason that I started it is because, uh, what I saw on those ratio charts that I was showing you was that we were going to get this massive rotation, uh, out of what has been bubbling up into, um, crude oil. Also, another thing is that historically, after gold and silver have gone parabolic, is when, uh, in the commodity space, the baton gets handed to oil, and oil starts to to go ballistic. So, uh, there was a number of reasons why I wanted to start this, and I wanted to look for some bargains. And I was pleasantly surprised that there was a bunch of of bargain oil and gas companies with, uh, price to book ratios, uh, most of them under two. Quite a few of them under one. Incredibly cheap. You, you could almost sell off the, you know, the assets of the company and end up with more than the market cap, uh, of of the stock. Super cheap. So I'm, I'm looking at that. And, and then I want to show you the momentum algo. So for this, I'm going to get back to some live charts. And this is, um, our momentum algo. So the momentum algos, uh, produce signals, and they go out to our premium, our top-tier premium plan subscribers every week. Uh, one other thing that, um, I'm sorry, every night. Every night. They're based on daily charts. One other thing I want to show you is, um, another thing that our, um, premium plan members get is our weekly and daily proprietary sentiment screenshots. These are the screenshots I took on Sunday, and, uh, our premium plan members got, got to look at these on Sunday, and they can download them. And, um, some really interesting stuff here. And what I look for in, um, on a weekly sentiment charts is a, is what we call a perfect storm. So I'm, so I'm showing you the sentiment first, and I'm going to show you the algo, then the buy low portfolio. So on this, on the Australian dollar recently, now this is through the weekend. Commercials all of a sudden we're heavily short. So commercials are generally, I, if you wanted the, the most simple explanation of commercials, they are the smart money. So generally, like if this was a commodity, the commercials would primarily be the companies that whose job it is to produce the pro product. So in the case of gold, it would be the gold miners. Commercials would be like Newmont and Barrick. Those companies have enormous trading accounts where they will hedge. If they think gold's going down, they'll hedge. They'll get, they'll short it in their, in their big accounts in order to protect themselves when the gold does go down. So when gold, what they're mining out of the ground, starts go diminishing in price, they're making money in their head, their futures account as a hedger shorting gold. And so what the way commercials generally trade is, if, if a trend gets too far in one di, um, in one direction, they'll fade it. They fade trends. So at major lows, they are long. At major tops, they are reliably short. So they're smart. That's the way they trade. And being able to see how they position themselves is incredibly useful in in trading. That's why I have so many, uh, uh, subscribers at my premium plan level. They want these sentiment conditions templates. They want to see how the commercials are positioned against retail. And the, the perfect storm is where, when commercials heavily short, let's say something's been moving up pretty hard. Commercials could go heavily short of it, but retail chases it. And the, and like at this top right here, at this candle, 86% of retail traders were heavily long. Well, retail traders are trend followers. They're chasers. [clears throat] And so that's what we call a perfect storm. Also, the item was overbought. I mean, so there was three strikes against it on the Australian dollar, uh, this last weekend. Um, [snorts] let me see if I can see what the next, um, there's a couple of other, um, interesting ones that that are bullish. Cocoa is bullish. It's deeply oversold on the money flow versus, uh, RSI. Uh, retail traders are are heavily bearish on it. There's only 10% of retail traders that are that are bullish, but commercials are heavily long. That's really close to a perfect storm. And there was a few others. But in, in the metals space, these sentiment conditions, weekly sentiment conditions screenshots were warning of a top in all of the metals. Commercials heavily short, retail heavily long, perfect storm of bearishness. Also, that tan stripe means the ADX indicator on a weekly chart was over 60. Extreme, extreme overbought. That, that the very same condition existed right here, and that's the condition that exists now in copper. Euro. So I just showed you how the US dollar is potentially bullish, you know, for the rest of this year. Well, look at Euro. Commercials are heavily short. Retail is on the long side. Now, there was a perfect storm back here where retail was way up in the 80s and high 70s at the same time as commercials were heavily short. That condition existed here, and, and the euro kind of just moved sideways. But now, uh, I think we have a reiteration of the bearish perfect storm. It never released that condition, and that's bearish for the euro and bullish for the dollar. That was a condition that, uh, my subscribers, uh, were were aware of ahead of time. Premium plan subscribers. Gold commercials heavily short right here. Hedged retail, 87% of retail traders, uh, were bullish. So you, you can't hardly, you almost never see a higher number than that on that scale. And all kinds of warnings from the money flow versus, uh, [clears throat] RSI, where the money flow, the blue line was lagging the RSI, the black line, while the black line, the RSI was in overbought territory. Definite warnings. The ADX indicator was over 60, and yet it really persisted higher until the commercials got short here, and then there was only one more spike, and that was it. Um, [clears throat] the Japanese yen is actually bullish. That's generally not a good. That's also bullish for bonds. Typically, commercials heavily long, retail heavily short. That's generally a bearish warning about the, the stock market, and that existed, uh, that's been in in place really for a little while. You know, when the commercials, 12-month on a 12-month look back, that means the commercials are as long as they have been at any point in the last 12 months. They're bullish, and they have been while this whole green square is underway, and retail's been flatlining down in there. So you get all these little green triangles and stuff. Now it's acting like it wants to potentially break higher. I don't think it quite has yet. We'll see. Um, [clears throat] palladium commercials are heavily short, as short as they have been the last 12 months. Retailing recently in 88, that's a perfect storm of bearishness. And, and palladium with had that big spike down, just like all the other metals. Platinum, perfect storm of bearishness. Back here, and ADX is over 60. Uh, it managed to keep working its way higher, but then we got that big spike. Um, that's probably it for a while on, uh, on platinum. Uh, a couple things that are bullish. Soybeans, very close to bull, perfect storm of bullishness. Uh, sugar, very a perfect storm now of bullishness. Right now, it's persisted for a few weeks. It's, but it, it really hasn't released the condition that is bullish on sugar. And then, uh, the VIX. Commercials are heavily long the VIX. Retail heavily short. That was bullish the VIX going into this trading week. Wheat. See this declining wedge, and it's trying to break out. That's a really good-looking setup. And commercials, um, are all of a sudden wanting to get long here. Retail's still pretty short. The, the money flow is above the RSI, means that there's some stealth buying come in, coming in. Wheat looks good. So that's just real quick, let you know. And then we also have a daily sentiment, uh, uh, that we send out every night to premium, uh, premium planners, and it's been somewhat bearish, not perfect on the S&P recently. Notice. And also, we, we put seasonality on the daily sentiment condition screenshots for premium planners. And there's still a little bit of bullish seasonality left through, uh, mid-February. And notice this is a live candle. It's trying to bounce a little bit. U, and Hurst thought it wouldn't, uh, peak until mid-February. I kind of doubt it can make any more new highs, but it's, I think we could see it rally for a couple of weeks, and this could end up being like a very small degree one and two, or moving lower. Um, so we also show seasonality.

Now, we're going to look at the, um, algo. And this is something I programmed up for about, uh, 20 different items. It's part of our premium plan. It's strictly a momentum algo. [gasps] Uh, I recently did a full backtest and, and optimization on it. The green blocks are winning trades. Had the current settings been in place over the last three years. So this is theoretical. You're, it's, you're assuming that these, uh, when, when you put your money in into, um, algo, you're assuming that whatever's been happening before is going to continue to happen. Because it's curve-fitted back to that. That's the assumption. Still, there's a lot of people that maybe they don't have time to look at the markets every day, and they, and they want to give it a shot and try to do some auto trading. Um, the green blocks are winning trades. The red blocks, here's one, there's one, are losing trades. Notice that the green blocks are typically larger than the red blocks. And the reason is because my algos all have a fixed stop to start and an open price objective. So like the reason this one was so big is it kept trending to the upside. And so it will allow the winners to run, but it will cut the losers short. That's the way it's designed. And, uh, we have a sortable spreadsheet that we will make downloadable at our site that allows you to look at a, after we do the quarterly backtesting and, and, and optimization. It lets you look and sort by return on gain, three-year return on gain. So it assumes a particular account size to start with. Then it shows you how much net profit it was able to bring in over three years, theoretically, and the return on gain. The big winner this time, no, no surprise, was gold. But the NASDAQ was and the S&P were pretty close behind. And crude oil is pretty close. I think crude oil is going to be a real interesting potential automated trade. Now, you can subscribe to the premium plan and you can take these, um, trade signals because we let you know when they occur every night. And so you can trade this system and still, and, and, um, you don't, and but you still would have to place the trades. You would see where the trades, uh, signals come in every night as part of that, uh, report that I showed you that showed you the buys, the sells, and then the trade maintenance. Showed you that earlier. So the, and, and something I may do pretty soon. I wanted to wait till we saw a top in the stock market, or what I thought was a top in the stock market, because this sideways grindy stuff that's been going on for three months. I didn't want to start, uh, my algos at striker.com and put them up there where you could actually fund an account and have it auto trader. But I, I think I'm going to do that soon. I'll announce that in an email. And, um, but I'm, I'm not particularly enamored. And by the way, this goes both long and short. Goes both long and short, but I, I think I might start with the crude oil, uh, algo. We'll see. I haven't decided yet. That's, uh, in the future. I may make it to where you can fund an account and have it auto-traded by my one of my algos, or more than one of my algos, if you want to try several of them to diversify. That is for folks that just simply don't have time. They either don't have time to look at the markets every day, uh, or they don't trust themselves to be able to be a contrarian. Because that's what you have to be. In order to trade these markets correctly, you have to be able to go against what is being said on TV with confidence. Um, so that is, uh, the, now I'm going to finally move on to, um, our buy low, uh, model portfolio.

So this is the buy low model portfolio holdings. I'm holding these in in real money accounts that I have. They're not huge accounts. I, the total size of the accounts is about $50,000. I, one of them that's about half of that, and the other about half. So I'm spreading these across. I'm using two different, uh, funded accounts to trade this idea with real money. And so far, as I said, so year to date, so that's since January 1, one of those accounts is up 10.4%, and the other one's 11.1%. Well, if I was able to continue to do that for an entire year, that would be a return of about 150%. 150%. In a year. So, this so far is working beautifully well. I, I post for, um, subscribers at the $70 per month plan or higher. Um, the, the portfolio inside of each edition of, uh, EWP screenshots. Now, let me show you what that looks like. So, um, we're going to the website, logging in. Hang on. And now I'm going to the side. Okay, that's not the side. Hang on. Waiting for it to log in now. Going to that. Here we go. All right. So inside, if you, by the way, the, the, the different tiers of service show you very quick, um, can be found at ElliotWavePlus/pricing. There's four tiers. This one is just daily trend direction charts and, um, Elliot wave count on Bitcoin and Ethereum. But when you get here, you get a bunch of screenshots, lots on Sundays and on, uh, Friday, um, Sundays and Wednesdays. And here you get all of those same thing, the screenshots from Sundays, Wednesdays, plus you get a weekly webinar and the recording. And then here you get everything that's including all these, plus you get the sentiment daily screenshots and the sentiment weekly screenshots, as well as the algorithmic, uh, trading signals. But at this level right here and above, um, I'll just go to, if I was, uh, at this level, I could, I would click be able to click on screenshots and I'd see the most recent edition of screenshots, and this is from tonight. And then when you click on this, it sends you into a live Google Drive, uh, folder. And so, um, once you're in there, you, you can look and see, okay, well, what's my, what am I thinking is happening on TLT daily? Well, I'm expecting a low pretty soon, a 40-week cycle trough and a rally. Or you could do look at it and, uh, see on sectors. What do I think is h happening on XLE? I'm, I'm, I'm quite bullish as it's breaking out, but, and I'm, but I'm expecting a pullback into mid to late February next, so on, so forth. And you can see there's a tonnage of screenshots, um, of my work updated constantly in, in bonds, commodities, cryptos, that's Bitcoin and Ethereum, currencies, the six major pairs, plus the US dollar index. [clears throat] Many of the ratio charts I showed you today would be in the ratio charts folder. Um, my wave counts on a whole bunch of, um, popular large-cap stocks, stock indices around the globe. Um, and there's something called Sid's work product. So, and when I work through individual, uh, uh, stocks and things, uh, during, and during the week, I might do a Hurst on them. Like here, I did a Hurst on Diagio, uh, and, and it's pretty bullish. This is a severely beaten-down stock. And this is one that a paying subscriber asked me to to look at and see what I thought of it, and I sent this to him, the, the Hurst on it. And I also did, um, I put it in my work product folder, so all my subscribers could see it. And that's the same with, with all of these. Like, for instance, um, Apache, what's my wave count on Apache? It's a natural gas stock. Well, it's bullish. Um, MOS, this is a fertilizer stock. Bullish. These are a lot of the stocks that have been left for dead. Um, RES, I, I revised this count, and I, there was a big plunge on RES. See that big gap down? And I was, Hurst was basically saying, "Yeah, that still looks good after the plunge, and it's just cheaper now than it was, and, and look for it to go up through late May." Um, [gasps] so on, so forth. So, there's a, a bunch of, uh, smaller cap, lesser-known stocks that I'm constantly working on to see if they would be, uh, something I want to put in my buy low candidates, uh, list, or maybe just go ahead and buy in the portfolio and put them in, in, in the buy low portfolio holding. So, um, even at the $70 level, you, you're not only getting the, my screenshots. And by the way, you get more screenshots from, uh, uh, stock indices around the globe on the Sunday. There's, there's several more Sunday screenshots than Wednesday. Wednesday's a slightly abbreviated version. There's probably 150 screenshots in the, in the weekend version, and maybe 80 in the, uh, Wednesday version. But you still get stuff like miscellaneous cycle analysis screenshots taken this week of charts I updated, you know, and so I, I'm constantly adding to these folders during the week. And so just because you check your screenshots on Wednesday night doesn't mean you, you can't look in and find new material on Thursday and on Friday. So you're seeing every, basically everything I'm doing. And so here's a, a look at, um, and I've buzzed out the names of the stock. My, these are stocks we, I actually own in those two accounts, and the, these, uh, stocks or the, those accounts are up about 11%, um, since the beginning of the year. And almost all of these are smaller stocks. Most are in oil and gas, but some are in specialty chemicals, um, shipping, agriculture. That's currently on. And notice I've sorted it by price to book on purpose, so you can see how super cheap some of these stocks still are. Nothing really is above two that's currently in the portfolio. They're incredibly cheap. And you can see this almost over the last month, the entire portfolio is up, except for one little small 2% draw down on this. Over the last three months, the entire portfolio is up, except for two small draw downs. Now, a one-week return. And this is tonight's. I took this tonight. Not as good because we got a pullback here the last couple days. But it, it's amazing. I mean, some of these stocks, this is up 20% in a month, 17% in a month, 11%, 30%. These small stocks can really move if you time them right. But, and, but, and here is the, uh, field that I think works, is what sets my work apart from anyone else, anybody else, anybody's service, is that I've done, once a week, I promise to do a new Hurst, an updated Hurst on every one of these, and let you know when the next dip is going to be, and how long to hold it. And I even show you the date that I did the Hurst. So if you'll notice, there's a whole bunch of these that are supposed to be dipping here in February. There's a dip down into approximately mid-February, and almost the whole portfolio. It's, this is very likely a dip into what I call an 80-day cycle draw. So those are the holdings. But not only do we have holdings here, but we have, um, a, a long list of buy low candidates. These are stocks that I haven't bought yet. And you'd have to enlarge this in order to really see what's going on. But, um, notice that the price to book ratio on these is generally quite low as well. And, um, they're, they're all dipping. And I've got a, a date on when the last Hurst I, I did suggested buying it, and how long to hold it. So on this particular one right here, looking to buy it approximately on February 12th, and hold it through April 14th. Notice that most of these holding dates are up through a April, May, maybe June or July, most of them. And the reason is because that big dip, mid-year dip down into the 18-month cycle trough due, in almost everything, is coming, um, that's due to bottom in somewhere in that July, August, September time frame. And so at some point, and it may have started today, basically on the, on the indices, but remember, I'm not talking about the indices here. The indices are dominated by these overblown bubbleicious, uh, AI stocks that all they all they really know how to do is dump billions of dollars into data centers. These are, have nothing whatsoever to do with those.

So that, ladies and gentlemen, is, um, all of my presentation that I had planned for you. I don't plan on sticking around much longer. I know I got had a few requests earlier, but, um, what I'd suggest to you is, I know one request, uh, that I saw came from a paying subscriber. And as you know, as a paying subscriber, you can always, uh, email me and ask me to take a look at something for you. Um, if you're a non-paying subscriber, you better sign up to something. And here's how you do it. And because then you can do that. You can, they check with me on particular items. Don't load me up too much with them. Be, be kind. I am pretty busy, but I can do a quick Hurst on specific items for you, uh, from time to time. Email me sid@elliotwaveplus.com and, uh, say, "Hey Sid, I loved your presentation and I'd like to give your service a try." Um, and I'll, and I'll look and to see if you've subscribed before. And if you haven't, then I, I will email you back and say, "Yeah, man. Just, I, I'll be looking for your, uh, subscription to come through, and as soon as I see it, I'm going to refund 50% off your first month." And you can choose any price tier you want. My suggestion is you, you do pick one of the higher priced tiers and get that big discount off of it, and that way you can see everything that I'm doing. Especially if it's a premium plan, or at least the pro plan. I mean, you know, uh, you're going to get 50% off on it. That's for first, first-time subscribers only. And then you can cancel anytime. A matter of fact, when you, when you subscribe, you get a, a login, and when you log in at our site, it logs into a dashboard, and you can, um, cancel your subscription there at, at any moment that you so desire. If you do cancel, cancel mid-month, you'll continue to automatically receive all paid materials through the end of your paid period, and then it'll stop.

Any questions from the gallery? Any questions? Any, um, it doesn't, doesn't look like there are any. Oh, and Greg says, "Thank you, Sid. Love your work product. I check it three times a day." Thank you so much. I'm glad you like it. These are new additions. I'm trying constantly trying to improve the service and make it more helpful, and to answer some of the questions that would be, I think, would be coming in anyway from my, uh, paying subscribers, and try to have that answer for them, as many as often as I can, already ready to go. Well, thanks, uh, everyone for, uh, joining, uh, the webinar. Uh, I'm going to stop it here and stop the recording. I hope some of you find it, and your, found it useful enough to decide to actually subscribe. This is what I do for a living, and I would, um, my family would appreciate it. Um, thank you so much. Have a great one. See you later. Bye-bye.