Transcription
After the historic crash we experienced last Friday, the cryptocurrency market had started to rebound. But it's forced to be acknowledged that selling pressure is still present. And in this video, I'm going to share with you the levels that will absolutely need to be defended. Otherwise, the risk is that everything will collapse afterward, and this bear market scenario will gain more and more weight. Welcome back to my channel in this new daily format that you'll find from Monday to Friday. If you like the video's subject, but especially if you find the value you're looking for in this video, smash the like button and most importantly, remember to subscribe so you don't miss the next editions. We'll start with the news I've selected for you, which will allow us to have more depth of vision in this market. We can observe that tensions with China and the United States are far from over. China has announced that they are ready to fight the United States until the end, but they are also open to negotiations. So the ball is in Donald Trump's court. On Black Rock's side, we can see that their clients have simply sold a significant amount of Ether. We're around 300 million dollars, and this simply shows that they are rebalancing their portfolios in relation to the situation we are currently experiencing in this cryptocurrency market, and this notably explains the selling pressure that we can still observe on this market at the beginning of the week. But that's not all. There's a whale that had shorted the market for $191 million just before Donald Trump's announcement and the tariffs against China. And this same whale has opened a new position for $500 million, so a bearish position on BTC. Does this whale have information that we don't? Surely, but in any case, this is not very reassuring information for the future of this cryptocurrency market. Regarding inflows into ETFs, whether for BTC or Ether, we expected at the beginning of this week to have liquidity outflows from ETFs. This is indeed the case. On Monday, October 13th, we had $326 million that left BTC ETFs, and $428 million that left Ether ETFs. I will explain to you just after why it's very important to follow these inflows and outflows on Ether and BTC ETFs. Regarding the cryptocurrency market capitalization, Coinbureau indicates that in the last 14 hours, 206 billion in capitalization has left the cryptocurrency market, which clearly demonstrates this selling pressure that is still present in the market. Furthermore, we have this information that Black Rock, the American government, and Binance have sold $1.2 billion worth of BTC in the last 12 hours. And this just before Jerome Powell's speech. I am actually recording this video at the exact moment Jerome Powell is about to speak. So we will see on the charts afterward whether his speech will allow the market to rebound or, on the contrary, to continue on this bearish dynamic. So, here we are looking at the BTC ETF chart, showing the evolution of inflows and outflows for BTC. And what's interesting to observe ultimately is that every time we've had a bullish acceleration on BTC, it was supported by continuous inflows into BTC ETFs. And conversely, from the moment this bullish momentum in terms of inflows started to decrease, to slow down, that's when we experienced corrections on Bitcoin. The movement that allowed BTC to make a new all-time high on October 6th was largely supported by inflows into BTC ETFs. So, seeing the first outflows here should indicate to us that the bearish movement we are currently experiencing is not insignificant. However, we are not yet in a catastrophic scenario. We will need to monitor for the rest of this week if these outflows continue. So, I was talking about Jerome Powell's speech. It's happening as I'm recording the video. The American government is still in shutdown, so we don't have macroeconomic data. Well, we probably won't have this data until October 16th. That's why it says "attempt" here. But the most important event this month of October 2025 is the next FOMC meeting, which will take place in 15 days. And the probabilities of a rate cut are around 97% versus 3% of no rate cut. So the market expects this interest rate cut, and the same for the next meeting. So, we can expect two interest rate cuts by the end of 2025. And what could surprise the markets is precisely the information that Jerome Powell will give us during his speeches, as well as during the FOMC statement, and all the information that will allow us to understand from what point we will be able to change monetary policy, moving from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing. Then, the market could possibly rebound very strongly upwards. But well, we're not there yet. In this video, the goal is to share with you the levels that Bitcoin will have to defend. And I've illustrated on the BTC chart in a 10-day timeframe all the accumulation zones and all the distribution zones it has experienced, because it's with this knowledge that you will be able to understand what we're going to talk about next. So, before going into more detail on these zones, the first reading for a beginner when they want to learn to read a financial chart is that they will explain that there are uptrends and downtrends. So in an uptrend, we make higher highs and higher lows. In a downtrend, it's the opposite. We always make lower lows and lower highs. So that's the basic definition of an uptrend and a downtrend. Now, when you understand a little better how markets work, you need to understand that markets don't move randomly. It's simply smart money that directs this market. It's the market makers, the large investment funds that move the markets. And these funds, ultimately, their goal is always to hedge their positions. So, for example, here we will focus on this uptrend. What we can notice is that for the price to go up, buyers must be much stronger than sellers. So, buyers take the lead, and here the market makers will open a short position. This short position will allow them to lower the price. Then, they will reposition themselves to buy. And what they will do when they make the market continue to rise is that between this high point and this low point, they have left the possibility for sellers and buyers to position themselves. This is what is called a fair value zone. So these are concepts that I will teach you in the video series to teach you how to know when to buy and when to sell by looking at and analyzing a market. And what's behind this fair value zone is that market makers hedge according to the direction they want to choose for the market. Here, they opened a long position. When they are selling here, the short position is at a loss. So, they reposition themselves to buy to provide the counterparty. This means that here, on this bullish move, only buyers have positioned themselves. Now, we have sellers, and when they want to go up again, they have their two positions here that are in profit, but they have this position that is at a loss. And that's why, ultimately, they will open a new short position to come back and seek this position here. And when the market returns to this position, they will close this short position at break-even, and the market will be able to continue. They will be able to open other long positions, and that's how uptrends work, as well as downtrends. So, where I'm going with this is that the market only does two things. Either it always offers fair value zones where sellers and buyers can position themselves, or from the moment the market re-enters the previous fair value zone, we have the information that the market no longer wants to offer fair value zones, but wants to seek liquidity. Where is liquidity in an uptrend? It's simply on the swing lows. And that's why, subsequently, when we have a reversal movement, the market generally comes back to seek its liquidity zones to then accelerate in the opposite direction and recreate new fair value zones, but in the other direction. So, well, this might still seem a bit complicated, but I will try to simplify this reading as much as possible for you in this video. So, during the bullish movement we had from the end of 2020 until April 2021, we see here, on a 10-day chart, that between this swing high and this swing low, we indeed had sellers who could position themselves and buyers who could position themselves. From what point did we no longer have sellers who could position themselves? Well, it was above this fair value zone. So the market accelerated upwards. Only buyers could position themselves. Then we have a range, and within this range, we also allowed sellers to position themselves. But here, what can we see? We can see that we have a deviation above this fair value zone, and this deviation was simply a bearish signal because if you have understood this fair value concept, if market makers no longer want to offer a new fair value zone and we re-enter within a fair value zone, it means that market makers want to seek liquidity, and they went to seek liquidity simply lower in the previous fair value zone here. So, here, we are offering a new fair value zone between this swing high and this swing low. And here, we indeed have sellers and buyers who could position themselves. We go back to a bullish movement. We still have sellers and buyers who could position themselves. And here again, we have sellers and buyers who could position themselves. Once again, we have a bullish movement, but we can't go higher than this swing high. So, we have the information here that market makers no longer want to create new fair value zones. They want to seek liquidity. Where is liquidity located? It's simply on the swing lows that are lower. And it's from this moment that we found the high of our last cycle. What you also need to understand is that subsequently, when we seek these liquidity zones, we create new fair value zones, but this time downwards. And in this entire bullish movement where we had no counterparty, meaning no bearish counterparty, it was precisely here where we found the low of the bear market within this zone. And it's not for nothing because there was no counterparty here, and these are imbalance zones that the market likes to come back and seek. This is to show you that markets don't move randomly. So, anyway, I won't go back over this bearish movement here. What interests me is simply the last fair value zone that we created on BTC. So, I'll remove these zones and redo this work with you. So, a fair value zone can be found very simply, and you also find them on lower timeframes, but here we will focus on this higher timeframe. So, here we have this swing high, here we have this swing low. So, we indeed have the counterparty here of sellers and buyers who could position themselves. We have this bullish movement. Now, within this bullish movement, we find this bearish movement. So, between this swing high and this swing low, we have a new fair value zone that is confirmed where? From the moment we go back above this high, we have the confirmation that we indeed allowed sellers and buyers to position themselves, but we have a rejection here of this swing high. So, this was also a bearish signal. So, for the moment, this fair value zone is still holding. The market has come back to seek liquidity where on this swing low, we had a first rejection, we had a second rejection, so we have the information that the target was this swing high again. But now that we've come back to seek this swing high, we've simply created a new fair value zone between this swing high and this swing low. The level that must absolutely be preserved for BTC is the low of its last fair value zone where we allowed buyers and sellers to position themselves. If this level no longer holds, for me, it's the confirmation that we will simply enter a bear market. So, this is already a level that I shared with you yesterday, but here I'm giving you the more technical explanation that will allow you to have a better market reading, but especially what are the levels that must absolutely be preserved. Now, there is also another chart that is very interesting to analyze, and that is the stablecoin chart. So, here we are looking at the stablecoin chart, showing the dominance of Tether and also USDC. And what will interest us is also to do this analysis of fair value zones. So, here, the first fair value zone I see is this one. We see that there was a deviation above. We re-entered, so what was the target? It was this swing low. The market came back to seek this swing low. When I talk about the market, it also works on stablecoins, but it also works on all financial markets. What you need to understand here is that on this stablecoin market, there is an inverse correlation with that of the rest of the cryptocurrency market. When this market is decreasing, it means that the cryptocurrency market is appreciating, and when it is increasing, it means that money is leaving the cryptocurrency market and ending up in the stablecoin market. So, the fact that we are breaking here means that we had the signal that we were returning to a strong bullish trend in cryptocurrencies. So, here we have a new fair value zone. The market breaks this zone, creates a new fair value zone here between this swing low and this swing high, which is confirmed with this bearish movement. And we can clearly see here that we have a wick where we can't go back below this zone. So, what does this mean? It's the signal that we have a higher probability of returning to seek this swing high. And it's precisely this week that I exited all my long-term positions because I had this bearish signal thanks to this reading of fair value zones. And so, what is the last fair value zone? It's this one, between this swing high and this swing low. So, what is the level that the market must absolutely hold? It's this swing high. We see that we had a large deviation here, which is linked to the historic liquidation we experienced. But in weekly, we don't want a close above this swing high. Otherwise, what does that mean? It simply means that the market wants to go higher and wants to go higher where on the swings that it hasn't truly broken yet. And so, on this swing high at the level of 7%, and if that's the case, it would simply mean that the $107,000 on BTC will possibly not have held. We will continue in this vein with the same analysis on the Ether chart. So, we are on weekly, and the Ether chart must absolutely be used as a health indicator for the altcoin market. If the Ether market remains in a bullish structure, the altcoin market will always have a probability of experiencing a bullish acceleration in this last quarter of 2025. However, if Ether loses its bullish structure, the probability of entering a bear market will simply be close to 100%. So, we know that Ether has broken a resistance that had held since the end of 2021. So, for now, we see that Ether is rejecting this resistance that has held for all these years. Now, to have a more precise reading, we will use this knowledge of fair value. What is the last fair value zone for Ether? It's between this swing high and this swing low. And why? Because in this entire zone, we allowed sellers to position themselves, which is sell-side liquidity, and we also allowed buy-side liquidity to position itself. So, as long as Ether remains above this previous fair value zone, it means that the market still wants to create new fair value zones, and we have a higher probability of returning to seek Ether's ATH rather than breaking this bullish structure. Now, what is the level to absolutely hold? It's this swing low. If Ether breaks this swing low, it will simply mean that it is no longer respecting this previous fair value zone and that it wants to seek liquidity, the liquidity that is on the swing lows that it hasn't recovered yet. So, this level of $3800 will be very important for Ether. As long as Ether holds the $3800 level, we will still have a higher probability of making a new all-time high for Ether, and the altcoin market will also follow. So, for me, it was very important to share this knowledge with you, and especially for you to keep in mind what are the levels that must absolutely be preserved. Here, we are on weekly, so we can have wicks below. That's not a problem. But it's really important not to have a break below $3800. Now, on the BTC side, if we look at its short-term evolution, so here we are on daily, we see that there was a gap on the CME, and it's precisely this gap that BTC has come to seek. Today, we have a bullish reaction, so that's positive. And we will also go back to daily on BTC to understand the short-term stakes. So, we will also note together what was the last fair value zone for BTC. So, we take this last all-time high, and at the moment we made a wick above this peak, we validated this new fair value zone where BTC went to seek liquidity below this fair value zone during the historic liquidation. So, for me, the liquidity has already been recovered, but it's really this $107,000 level that must hold. And now, if we look at what's happening in the short term, from what point will we be able to confirm that we are going to embark on a strong bullish rebound? We simply need to look at BTC's last fair value gap. Here, I will also bring you a concept that I teach to members of my academy and my personalized coaching group, which is that a fair value gap always shows us the market's intention. Here, we have a bearish fair value gap. I am not part of the team that believes a fair value gap, when tested, will always be valid until we have completely engulfed the entire fair value gap. For me, a fair value gap is no longer valid from the moment we touch it once. That is to say, this candle that came to test this fair value gap, for me, if we don't have a bearish reaction that allows us to break the last swing low, which is here, it means that it shows me a weakening of the current bearish trend and that I would have a higher probability of having a bullish rebound afterward. Now, there is what I call the two-rejection candle method. We will focus precisely on this candle. We have here the high of this candle, which came to test this fair value gap. As long as this high holds, this fair value gap is still valid. So, the fact that last Monday we came to seek this high and swept it, meaning we went above it and didn't manage to close above it, for me, I already had the information that this Tuesday would be a Tuesday with a high probability of having a bearish candle. So, from what point will we validate that this fair value gap is no longer valid? From the moment this high is broken by a candle. So, from the moment BTC breaks $115,700, that's when we will have the green light for a more significant rebound in the altcoin market, and not a fake rebound like we've seen in recent days. So, that's all the information I wanted to share with you in this video. Feel free to tell me in the comments if this more technical format at the end of the video is not too complicated for you. And anyway, I will soon share this new series with you. Don't forget that in the comment section, you have the links to join either my academy or my personalized coaching. Personalized coaching is accessible only by application. It's for investors who have a slightly larger capital, generally capital exceeding €20,000. You simply need personalized coaching that matches your needs. Well, listen, I'm happy to see you again tomorrow, but until then, stay rich.