Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin, and we're going to be discussing the bull market support band. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com. Let's go ahead and jump in.
So, um, here we are in 2026, and Bitcoin has started the year off relatively okay. We'll talk a little bit about that later. Um, I'm under the weather recently. Uh, I actually started off 2026 skiing my first Black Diamond. So, I know for a lot of you guys that's not that big of an accomplishment, but for me it is, since I didn't start skiing until, um, until I was already an adult. So, let's talk here about where Bitcoin is and kind of some of the expectations.
So, right now, Bitcoin's right around 92, 93K. Now, one of the things to keep in mind is the bull market support band. Now, in prior cycles, Bitcoin certainly respected the bull market support band in better ways, where it would hold it as support throughout the bull market, and then once it broke, then the bear market began. Right? You could even argue that last cycle, you know, we held it a couple of times, went up, we failed to hold it, and then technically we put in a higher high, but by most metrics, it wasn't really a euphoric high, right? It was just sort of like a, it was sort of like a dead cat bounce that somehow made it to a new all-time high. It's like the, the dead cat bounce. It bounced off like a trampoline or something. I don't know. But regardless, this cycle was a bit different in terms of the bull market's rep. And as you can see, there were a couple of scares, right? In 2023, we went below it, consolidated, went back up. In 2024, we went below it, consolidated, went back up. 2025, same thing, right? Below it, consolidated, went back up.
So, now the question is, is what's going on here? Right? Is this another one of these from 2023, 2024, and 2025? Is this just yet another one? And we should have our answer within the first quarter of this year, would be my guess. Now, one of the things we mentioned is that, you know, regardless of whether you think we're in a bear market or not, whether you think it follows just the normal four-year cycle where Bitcoin is essentially, um, if you look at like the ROI after the cycle peak, right? If you, if you subscribe to this view and you look at the current cycle, you can kind of see it's, it's definitely outperforming all the prior bear markets that started at the end of the post-election year or post-halving year. You can see that, I mean, really, right now, Bitcoin is, is at what, 74% of its, of its peak, whereas last cycle at this time, it was at 65%. Cycle before that, it was at 41%. Cycle before that, it was at 0.58%. So, it's certainly holding up better this cycle at this point in the cycle than it did in the other sort of post-election year Q4 tops going into bear markets.
Additionally, if you look at the one that we've compared to, which I actually, I like, I prefer this comparison. This is after, or this is right, you know, two months before QT ended last cycle. Same thing this cycle. It's not that different, but you can see there are some similarities, also some differences in terms of like when the balances are actually occurring, but this one seems a lot more like it's matching than any of the, any of the ones we just showed. Again, I, I think people should ignore this pandemic move here. Just look at it like this is, is how I'm electing to look at it.
And so then the question is, is, you know, what, what is in store for us going into 2020, like, as now that we're no, I can't even say going into 2026, we're already in 2026 now. What's in store for us now that 2026 is here? One of the things I, you know, that we've talked about a lot, um, with Bitcoin is if you look at the monthly candles and, and whether you compare it to 2019 or whether you compare it to the prior bear markets, the thing that you'll notice is that the sort of the bull market that ended in 2021, when it ended, you had three red months. Okay? Three red months, and then you had two green, followed by another three red. Right? So it was 3-2-3. You can see this time, we already got our three collective red months in a row that actually started in October when the top occurred. Remember, last cycle, it was November. So, last cycle, it was November, December, January, and then two months up, and then another three down that got us into the summer. This time, we've had three red months. Um, but there is a slight difference between these three, three red months and the ones in 2022, as the ones in 2022, each red month led to lower prices, right? Whereas this time around, the lower price actually occurred in November, and in December, price didn't really go anywhere.
Additionally, if you look at 2019, if you look at 2019, what you'll see is we also started off here with three red months, and then a single green, and then another two red. Right? So, this is one of those difficult times where, you know, if you want the bull market to continue, there's still a lot to prove. And if you're a bear, and, and you think, okay, this is going to play out either like 2019 or like 2026, then you're speculating that it'll lead to sort of this like lower high that'll then lead to a lower low. But I think we need to quantify, like, what, what would be a reasonable lower high to then lead into a lower low versus what would more so signal a more durable breakout that would then question the validity of the four-year cycle.
One of the things I told you guys throughout Q4 was that in early 2026, there would likely be a bounce, right? And one of the reasons for that is because a lot of the times when bear markets start, you get those first three red months where people, the first batch of people believe it's the bear market, right? That's when they start to believe, and then after they're gone, you get your bounce, sort of like the return to normal type type of move, and then you get a, a bigger drop shortly thereafter. Right? So, if the view that I've expressed is correct, then whatever eventually happens here would likely lead to a lower high. But we need to discuss, like, what would have to happen for that view to change? What normally happens is that Bitcoin revisits the 50-week moving average. So, we've mentioned that a few times. There is an example where it didn't, but if you look at 2022, you can see that Bitcoin revisited that 50-week moving average and went slightly above it and then back down. Same thing in 2018. In 2014, we didn't quite make it there, but by the time that occurred, and we were basically through the bear market at that point anyways. But you can see the last two bear markets, we did test that 50-week moving average. And in fact, in 2018, the test occurred in July, and then last cycle, it occurred, uh, in March, March. So, July, March. So, maybe this one occurs even earlier in the midterm year.
Okay. So, when we look at this, one of the things I mentioned throughout Q4 is that the counter-trend rally to the 50-week would likely not even really get underway until 2026 got here. Now that we're in 2026, I think we have to be a little bit more mindful that it could be occurring. And I think it made a lot more sense to sort of fade these moves because we just hadn't gotten into the midterm year yet, which was when those counter-trend rallies really start to manifest.
Now, if you look at the year-to-date ROI of Bitcoin, one of the things you'll notice in 2026 is it looks pretty good so far, right? I mean, it does. There's no doubt about it. Bitcoin's been moving up. How does 2022 compare? Like, what did Bitcoin do when 2022 started? It just went straight down. So, it already looks better than 2022. What does it look like compared to 2018? Okay. Okay. Well, in 2018, you can see that Bitcoin actually started to go up, and then it went up a lot, right? It went 20% above the early open before ultimately dropping back down by mid-January. And if you compare it to 2014, you can see that by this point in 2014, Bitcoin had added a bigger, an even bigger rally. So, if you add the average of all prior, uh, midterm years to the current year, you can see that Bitcoin is actually still tracking the average of prior midterm years. You can see that, and, and you can see that historically, on average, um, you know, Bitcoin went up about maybe 10, 15% from the early open on average before then dropping down later on.
What, what's hard about this though, is that, you know, if it were to drop that quickly, it wouldn't really leave, leave room for a more durable test of the 50-week. Therefore, if that's what happens, it would kind of push the 50-week test further out into the midterm year. Um, but that's at least, you know, like what I'm looking at right now as, as sort of like the, the things to consider going into 2026, like, what, what do these things look the most like? I think you could argue that sort of this lower volatility area. You could argue it looks a little bit like this in late 2019 going into 2020. Again, I mean, that led into the pandemic, but you still had a nice rally. You could also argue you had a lot of low volatility right there before a nice rally and then dumping into a slightly lower low. Right? So, there are times where the market has looked like this where you have sort of lower volatility, kind of like right here as well. And then after you have those few weeks of lower volatility, you then get a nice move up. So, you could argue that perhaps we've entered into the counter-trend rally. It's just that, you know, will we get past here?
My argument is this. If you get multiple weekly closes above the 50-week moving average, then you could argue, okay, maybe there's something different. We said that in 2022 as well when we got above this one, you know, but it, but it ended up only being like, you had one week above it slightly. Second week, no, no follow-through. Technically above it, but no follow-through, and then we came right back down. So, you have to be careful with it. 2014, sorry, 2018, no weekly closes back above it. 2014 also no weekly closes back above it. So, in 2014, I mean, I guess we were above it for part of 2014, but once we got below the 50-week moving average, by the time we got back above it, the bull market had already begun. Like the bear market was over. In 2018, once we went below the 50-week moving average, once we got back above it, the bear market was over. Okay, in 2022, the bear market was over once we got back above it, except for the fake-out we got in late March. Again, the way I try to make sense of that is when you get a move above a critical level, if you don't get follow-through the next week, it can be a fake-out. What you want to see when you sort of break out is you want to get a lot of follow-through on, on the move. And, and so I think that's what you would look for is if we do approach the 50-week moving average, you know, do you get that follow-through or not on the following week?
Now, right now, the 50-week moving average is over 100K, but again, you have to remember it is a moving target. So, if we go up right now, that would correspond to a little above 100K. If Bitcoin were to then dip down again and then try again in a couple of months, it would obviously start to come back down. I do think there's a reasonable chance Bitcoin will test 100K, um, at some point in, in, in the coming months, but I mean, again, like there's no such thing as a sure thing.
The thing I think that you have to look at right now is that Bitcoin is basically bouncing off its 100-week moving average. So, if you wanted to compare this to say, the last cycle, you can see that Bitcoin came down, held the 50-week for a little, right? Same thing here. Came down, held the 50-week for a little, then dropped to the 100, then rallied up to the 50 before getting the deeper drop. Right? So, if it's the same thing down to the 100, perhaps we're in that rally to the 50 before then getting the deeper drop. My expectation, as I've said before, and on, I would say on, on multiple weekly closes above the 50 moving average, I'd have to reassess. My expectation is that Bitcoin tests the 200-week moving average before this year is over. That's my guess. And the reason I say it is because it's what always happens in the midterm years, right? Below the 50 takes you to the 100, which eventually you break and then go to the 200. Right? Same thing, 50 to the 100 to the 200. And then here, 50 to the 100 to the 200, and then it actually went below it. So, here we are again, 50 to the 100. Again, my expectation is that Bitcoin will test the 200-week moving average. I would say by the summer or October 2026 at the latest would be how I expect this to play out. And it could play out any number of ways. You could have a counter-trend rally back up to a lower high and then a deeper drop. Um, maybe we don't even test the 50-week, like 2014. But that is how I expect this to play out.
Now, if it plays out like 2019, you can see that we did get back above the 50-week moving average, and then yet we still went to a lower low on a pandemic-induced recession. The point is, is like, I'm not asking you guys to consider this as a sort of a base case. But the interesting part of all of this, right, is that every time, regardless of how it happened, every time Bitcoin goes below the 50, it then goes below the 100, and then goes to the 200 eventually with counter-trend rallies along the way. Okay? So, that is my guess. I think we are currently in, like, we're currently in this counter-trend rally, and I would be looking for a lower high. If Bitcoin reclaims the 50 from where it broke down, I would have to reconsider my view. I would, right? Right. I mean, I think any good, any good investor would have to reconsider their view if the market were to sort of prove that, hey, maybe something else is happening. Again, we didn't top on euphoria, so maybe something else is happening. But for me, I'm going to go with, if it's not broke, don't fix it, and assume that it likely yields a lower high. Um, and I, I, I, I would guess it would either be at that 50-week moving average or potentially at the bull market support band, which coincidentally right now, the 20-week SMA and 21-week EMA are on either side of that 50-week moving average. So, those are the things that I'm looking at going into the next few weeks, going into 2026, to see Bitcoin's reaction if we make it here.
I do think Bitcoin will backtest it at some point. It's just a matter of like, does it go up now and then we check, we, we sort of check it, or are we kind of in like a little bit of a fake-out, we drop, and then we test it? I don't know exactly how that's going to play out, but I do think Bitcoin will backtest that at some point, and if it is a rejection, that would then sort of be the nail in the coffin on, on the, um, on sort of the end of the, this bull market, right? But what I've said before, and I, I will say it again, one of the reasons why I think you get these counter-trend rallies back up is there's a lot of like super cycle guys that are calling for new highs. And it takes about three months after a top before you get all those initial sellers out. And so it gives the, the super cycle guys, you know, a month or two to try to, you know, to try to see if their theories are right. Right? After you get out the first batch of sellers, um, the market gets, gets exhausted, the buyers take control for a little while.
The thing this time that I want to caution people towards, right, if you are a believer in the super cycle, is that because we topped on apathy rather than euphoria, if you look at the social interest, and you color code Bitcoin by social interest, right? Because we've topped on apathy like 2019 rather than euphoria, there is a chance that if this is a rejection from, like, if it plays out like this where you go up and then down, the next rejection could be what makes the super cycle guys convinced it's a bear market. But because we topped on apathy rather than euphoria, that might actually end up being the low, because you could even argue that those are the last guys you'd even have to convince at this point. The reality is that there's not a lot of new retail investors around to convince, um, not a lot of new ones. And, and again, you can see that by the social interest. And that's why in 2019, we, we had one macro lower high, right? Right. We just, I mean, I guess we had a few early on, but then after the bear market be, be, you know, was underway and where people were accepting of it, we had one rally to a lower high and then one final lower low. And yes, we ended up getting the pandemic. But let's just pretend like, let's just ignore that and say, look, you had a lower low, a rally to a lower high, and then another lower low. That would have convinced people that this bull market was over. But then arguably, that could have been the end of that, of that bear market had the pandemic not occurred.
So, that's all I'm trying to say is that, you know, have a plan. That's my, that's my idea of how this is going to play out is a backtest eventually, a drop to a lower low. You finally convince the holdouts, it's a bear market, then we put in the low, and then we try to grind up from there. That's my guess as to how this is going to play out. I don't know exactly how high Bitcoin can go before it gets a, a lower high. Um, but usually the bull market support band, uh, is an eventual target in, in bear markets, right? It is an eventual target. You can see in, in 2028, or sorry, 2022, and in, um, 2018, and in 2014, you can see while it didn't make it to the 50-week, it did make it back up to the bull market support band. And right now, the bull market support band ranges from around 99K to a little over 102K. So, those are the places to watch for in the coming months.
If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and check out Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com. I'll see you guys next time. Bye.