Transcription
Many of you are asking me for specific altcoin analyses, but today, I'm going to give you a new update on the Coin 50 analysis. So, this is really the index I use every day to analyze the altcoin market. Roughly speaking, it will really give a complete picture for the altcoin market, and in fact, you can simply redo this analysis on your own altcoin. So really, it will cover all altcoins in a single analysis. Just before we start, I remind you that our algo service is available. I've put on the screen what it means in numbers. The SPT algorithm last week generated over 15.41 R, and simply, this means, for example, that on a capital of $1000 that would risk $5 per trade, we would have made a performance of 15 R. So that would have generated $75 in profit, which allows for a net return of 7.5% last week. So again, past performances do not guarantee future performances. We are giving you a big summary of the 4th quarter of early 2026. Also, the performances for the 2nd and 3rd quarters are already available in the Discord, and they are excellent. I invite you to consult them. I remind you that past performances do not guarantee future performances. To access it, it's the first link in the pinned comment. It's free, it's accessible to everyone. The only thing you need to do is register on Bitgate. Vi, our partner link, it's on Bitgate that we run these algorithms. So, you need to click on this first link. Currently, Bitgate offers you 10% cashback. This means, for example, if you deposit $1500, you will get an additional $150 bonus. Simply, you create your account. Once that's done, you just need to click on this second link. Algo Trading, Mentorship, VIP, Altcoin and Crypto. It's a short 10-minute video in which I explain absolutely everything to you. You will have free access to the algos, the mentorships, and also the VIP Altcoin crypto. This is where I will share the best opportunities in the altcoin market from my point of view. There is also a new algorithm coming soon. I will tell you about it very soon.
So, to come back to the Coin 50, you have Coin 50 below. I remind you that it's the Coinbase index weighted by Coinbase. So, they have mainly included Bitcoin and so on, but it's really a very good market indicator. And we also have Bitcoin here to see the correlation, the decorrelation, and so on and so forth. So, it's extremely important to have an analysis of Bitcoin, obviously, to understand where the altcoin market might go. And so on Coin 50, for several weeks now, well, not several weeks, sorry, yes, it has been several weeks that we have been working the same price zone. It's this large fair value gap zone right here, within which we had a low in the volume profile that theoretically extends up to $422. We are starting to flip back under this zone. This is really the flip zone. Why? Because in fact, when Bitcoin, well, sorry, when Coin 50 returns below the $422 zone, it will come to seek a major support. And contrary to what we think, major supports have a role; it's okay to support the price, but often what happens at a support is that the price goes below the support and then it can mark its bottom. And that's why very often, large high-volume zones on the volume profile, we pierce them before re-entering them. And so here, we are working this low zone. So, in fact, consider that the interesting zone is here. This doesn't mean the market will bottom here, but we are working an important zone, precisely, which is a real support, and if we manage to establish ourselves below this zone, so here you see, we are at the last levels, around $420. On this index, we are at $408. If we manage to establish ourselves below this zone, I'll be more precise, $418. The next zone of interest for the market is to come and retrieve the stops that are below this low. It makes you think that the market will always go to seek stops and execution orders, well, order executions. It's very important to understand this. And so the next intermediate test zone will be right here. It's a vectorial fair value gap, so with high volume, which is open at 100%. And very often, these zones are filled. Not always, I can't give you statistics, but at least 7 to 8 times out of 10. And so, if the market doesn't react here, the next zone of interest is between $389 and $382. This means that from an altcoin market perspective, it will depend on your investments. I'll take an example like AAVE, and then I'll take a weaker example. For example, AAVE risks coming to take the stops of this low at $176. Why? Because it's still in a bearish dynamic. It's making lower lows and lower highs. So its next objective, knowing that it made a lower high, is to come and retrieve a lower low. If your altcoin looks like this, it has a very high chance of going to seek the low of last week, well, of early November, November 4th. So yes, that was last week. And so again, I told you about this, but take your wicks; it doesn't mean we'll go there, but they can be reference points for you. You take the low, the high of the wick with a Fib, and you locate the 0.5 zone. This is a zone that the market can often come back to test. So on AAVE, it would be around $150, for example. If I take another example like ROSE, which is quite bearish, ROSE, which has a very bearish dynamic here, for example, ROSE currently has a sort of exit. Well, I consider this an exit pump, meaning we came back to close the previous fair value gap, but the movement was not supported at all. So for those who remember, at the end of last week, we had a big pump across the entire market, but it was probably an exit pump. Basically, they shake out the shorters before taking a bearish direction on the entire market. This is what is happening. For example, on ROSE, note the last low. Well, not the very last one, but the second to last. Basically, the lows from early November are probably the market's target if Coin 50 goes to seek the zone I indicated. So you locate the lows from early November and tell yourself that there's a high chance we could go there potentially. This applies to any altcoin. Last example, I'll take Dogecoin, for example. Here, we do exactly the same thing. The dynamic remains bearish. The price rejected in the fair value gap zone to continue falling. So here, hop, next objective, the last low that formed in early November. And also, don't forget, you can even add your little wick, the 0.5, 0.75 are often zones we seek. So here, it could even be around 14.13 cents. So this is applicable to all your altcoins.
Now, let's talk about other zones on Coin 50 because there are others besides this one on Coin 50. We will note, of course, the next big low zone because what I'm giving you here is an intermediate zone, and to be honest, there's not a very high chance of bottoming here if we accept below $418. The zone where we have more probability of bottoming, well, it's clearly visible, this huge low that we have here. This is where, in fact, if we were to really seek a precise zone, it's more here, between $340 and $328. What does this mean? It means that this index has a minimum potential decrease of 5%. This won't significantly impact altcoins if this index loses 5%. However, the zone with the highest probability of being retested and marking a bottom is more over there. And here, it's between -15% and -20%. So that's -15% to -20% on this index. Let's see what that would look like on an index like Oders. So now, let's analyze to see where we are. On the one hand, we can see that we have a favorable divergence, meaning that Bitcoin here is making a lower low, and the altcoin market is making a rising low. So positive, yes and no. It's positive, but historically, unfortunately, what happens is that a capitulation in the market, well, I'm not talking about capitulation at the end of a bear market, etc., but a bottom that forms to rise again for several weeks, because you know that market flows are not unidirectional. There are bearish movements, bullish movements, bearish movements, bullish movements. The question is, will the next bullish movement on Bitcoin make a new ATH, or will it just make a lower high? For example, we do this, and then we do this, for example, or will we do something like this, or even something like this? I don't know, or maybe it bottoms here, again, everything is possible, and we'll make a new high. That will depend on, well, on Bitcoin, simply. Will we continue to make highs in this market or not? And so, this has an impact on Oders. But you need to understand that generally, a low forms in panic on altcoins, often with bearish accelerations that then mark the bottom of Bitcoin and altcoins, and we have several weeks of gains afterward. Currently, the fact that we have divergences like this shows that there isn't necessarily panic in the altcoin market, simply currently. And very often, it accelerates a bit. So theoretically, if Bitcoin, for example, comes to seek these weekly fair value gap zones that we talked about in the briefs, so between $85,000 and $91,000, the target zone here on Oders is to come and retrieve the previous low of November 4th. So this is correlated with everything I indicated at the beginning of the video with your altcoins. You can correlate this with your altcoins and also this 0.5 to 0.75 zone, but it would mainly be simply to come and seek the long-term support. The long-term support is now here. We see that the market has reversed here twice already, several times even. You see that in candlestick bodies, it's really a zone that is strongly defended. So this, again, corresponds to the discount zone of this wick between $180 billion and $200 billion. So on average, if Bitcoin goes to seek its fair value gap zone, we have a potential decrease of 12% to 25%, let's say 22%, between 12% and 23% on average for the altcoin market on Oders. Now, the target would be to come and retrieve the stops. But it's an index, unfortunately, it's an index. We won't necessarily retrieve stops on an index. This encompasses a lot of different assets. But from a technical point of view, for example, if this were an altcoin, I would tell you that there's a good chance of revisiting this zone. That's a 36% drop, but for now, we're not focusing on that because, as I said, it's an index. Okay, so it would be to retest the wick and retest the support, possibly from a technical point of view, and I think it would align perfectly with a Bitcoin that comes into this FVG. There's the scenario, it seems too early to me, but there's a scenario where Bitcoin makes a huge knife under the last low. That is to say, basically, everyone will start leveraging in this zone, and ultimately everyone will put their stop there and get liquidated. Let's say, 15% chance, let's say 20% probability that this happens, chances out of 10. And on the other hand, if this were to happen, it would mark a new liquidation leg on the alts, probably. I don't know how far we would go if this were to happen, but I'm telling you about it, just in case. If there's a huge knife that falls and ultimately everyone gets liquidated and stopped out here. It can exist in a world; it's not the end of the world if it happens. Why am I telling you this? Because BTC likes to seek the extremities of order blocks. And in fact, there's a monthly order block. Now, we haven't done this on a weekly basis in this cycle. For example, on this order block, we haven't sought the extremity of the order block. But here, maybe we will, I don't know. We'll see. Because in fact, the market has respected the monthly fair value gaps. Now, if we go to seek the weekly fair value gap, it would be the first time we haven't respected the monthly fair value gap on Bitcoin. And maybe, consequently, it will go to seek the order block stops. That's why I'm telling you, there's a 20% probability. I don't believe in it too much, but it's not that I don't believe in it too much; for me, it's a scenario that is clearly possible, that can happen, and that would be an extraordinary entry, moreover. But it's not certain that it will happen, so I don't want to put that in your head. For me, from a technical point of view, if we respect the monthly dynamic, the bottom zone is around $85,000, approximately, in my opinion. Now, I'm starting to see this zone. In fact, it's always like this: something that works once, twice, three times, four times. So, for example, the fact that the first stop allowed us to bottom each time, well, after a while, everyone knows it, and it doesn't work anymore. And I have the impression that this time, everyone knows it. It worked once. Well, it worked, sorry, once, twice, three times. Here, we didn't come. Four times, five times. Will the sixth time still work? I don't know. If that's the case, it's at $84,000. If we just want to annoy those who will play this scenario, who will buy here and put their stop there, you know that Bitcoin is a bit tricky. We can very well make a wick and close at $382, it's entirely possible. Okay. Uh, now, that's the scenario to keep in mind, just in case. But what you need to remember is that the objectives are lower on Coin 50. If we lose $418, which we are doing, with lower objectives, and I'm giving you the price zones. It's true that I forgot, for those who want to look at this index, the first intermediate zone would be from $389, and the real low zone to rebalance is $344 to $330. Then, on the Oders side, in terms of capitalization, to come and take the lows of November 4th. So this is roughly for all altcoins, but also the support and discount zone between $202 billion and $180 billion. When we look long-term, again, from an altcoin perspective, and again, it depends on your altcoins, I gave you a tip to observe altcoins that outperform the market. Generally, we are entering long-term reloading zones. So, in fact, long-term on the index, if we could buy it. Unfortunately, we can't. If an exchange one day wants to list Oders, honestly guys, do it. Make a synthetic product, it will be a hit. It would be to come into these zones, and so theoretically, well, reloading zones would be very interesting zones, and so what you do is you take your altcoin and you see if it outperforms Oders or not. For example, Hyperliquid, you take it, you divide it by Oders, you see what it looks like. Well, for example, Hyperliquid outperforms Oders by a lot. So it's about saying that Hyperliquid, for example, can be bought, not now, but when it's in interesting zones, we might consider buying something like Hyperliquid because it outperforms Oders. There aren't many tokens like that, so you have to find them. Same for things, I don't know, AAVE, no, that underperforms less. The chart won't be the same. Uh, I don't know why it's not working here. Maybe I made a mistake. No, I think TradingView has a problem. But well, on your end, it should work. It can't not work here. I think yes, there was a problem. TradingView is having trouble loading. I'll try with another coin. For example, GLD. If it doesn't work, it means TradingView is down. But well, on your end, it will work as long as it comes back to me. Yes, I think TradingView is down, but on your end, it will work. Normally, my scales are correct. Well, I do it all the time. So no, it must be a TradingView problem that has a small bug. It's okay. It works with Hyperliquid, it will work with others. But I'm spoiling it for you, it underperforms Oders. So it's important to observe this. Okay? And so this can give you an idea of which coin to buy, for example, which coin not to buy, and so on and so forth. It's very important, because long-term, I repeat, we would be entering zones that would be really not bad. Now, retest zones on Oders, if it were to go down sharply, they are here between $150 billion and $120 billion. I'm telling you, it seems very low to be honest. It seems much too low for now, not in a straight line. For example, if we were to go there, maybe do something like this. You see, I doubt that suddenly, we go back in a straight line here. But again, what you need to understand is that when there's panic, when you feel the urge to sell, in panic, that's when it's time to buy. Because in fact, if you feel the urge to sell, it's because others feel exactly the same. And if everyone wants to sell, it's time to position yourself to buy. But again, you have to choose your coins well. And it's not because you buy something at a good price that you will necessarily make money. Because a good price can simply trigger a rebound and offer you even lower prices afterward. That's why you need to manage your risk and possibly find assets that have decent dynamics. That's why Hyperliquid, for example, it doesn't make lower lows and lower lows and lower lows. Hyperliquid in a reloading zone is not bad. So the reloading zone is there, on the wick, maybe we'll go back there. Let's say between $28 and $19 for Hyperliquid, in this zone it's interesting. This is not investment advice, it's just that from a technical point of view, correlated with Oders, it's not too bad. Correlated with Bitcoin, it's also good. And it doesn't mean you have to put your house on it and go all in. But it means that we can place buy orders in a staggered manner and then potentially keep others lower because it's possible that in the coming months, it will continue to fall, it will continue to be in a bearish dynamic, who knows. So you need cash just in case this scenario happens. I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to smash the blue thumbs, subscribe, and leave a comment. A huge thank you to those who play along. I remind you of all the links in the description box, our algos, mentorship, VIP altcoin, all of that for free. Don't hesitate. We'll see you very soon.