Transcription
So, the Warriors are on a mini streak right now. They have won three straight games, and this was a semi-nervous win at home over the Dallas Mavericks, a depleted Mavericks team who also lost AD early on in the first half.
Now, Al Horford has missed a whole bunch of time this season due to various ailments as well as sitting out back-to-backs. He's missed a whole lot of games, but he finally made a comeback in this one, and he looked really good. He was hitting all of his three-point shots to start in the first quarter. And there are slight adjustments being made within the rotation. And I would say that these slight adjustments are certainly better than no adjustments. There are definitely some key things happening slowly over time. Like I said in the last breakdown video, things are moving at a snail's pace in terms of the changes that the Warriors need to make in order for us to see the greatest version of themselves with the roster that they currently have. So what exactly are these subtle changes? And is it going to be good enough for us to see the Warriors play more consistent basketball? We'll be going over those nuances and, of course, we'll get into the film room and look at plenty of things that happened throughout the course of this game, both good and bad. And if that sounds good to you, be sure to subscribe, hit the notification bell, and that like button so that this video gets out to all the Warriors fans out there.
Sorry I couldn't get this video out to you sooner. Obviously, it was Christmas Day. I had to attend to family matters. But merry Christmas to you all. I hope you enjoyed your time with your families and your loved ones. And I do hope that you enjoyed the fact that the Warriors were able to win a Christmas game. As we all know, Steph Curry historically has not been very good on Christmas games. But in this one, he was just good enough to ensure that the Warriors would come away with a win. So, let's get straight to it.
What was different in this game in terms of their rotation? Well, there were 11 players in rotation. Once again, 11 is too many. But the good news is that five of the six guys coming off their bench weren't all guards this time. This time, Al Horford got into the rotation. And of course, the concern was that when Al Horford comes back, TJD would be taken out of the rotation, and that did not happen in this game. Both Trace and Al Horford were coming off the Warriors' bench. And as a matter of fact, they even played a couple of minutes together in that first quarter. Of course, that ended up being nothing but a little tease because those minute and a half or so that they shared in that first quarter, that was the only time that these two were played together.
Since we have such a small sample size, I won't be able to show you much. But I'll show you this on offense. For example, because Horford is a three-point shooter and because TJD is a rim roller, the inside-out tandem of these two bigs really works and it will work really well with TJD and Quinton Post as well. And here's a really simple example of that. Here you can see the DHO between Melton and TJD. TJD is rolling to the rim. Cooper flag sags off of Horford and Horford is immediately able to make him pay.
Now let's take a look at what the defense looks like with both Horford and TJD on the floor at the same time. There's a high pick and roll on the play. Gafford is cutting to the rim, but Horford has great length and is able to bother this pass. TJD also slides over from Flag from the corner just in case he's needed at the rim, but ultimately Horford is able to hustle to the ball here for the steal. And I just love the way the defense looks with two guys capable of switching with each other as well as the fact that the both of them can play the anchor role. You have two anchors on the floor at the same time. You have two guys capable of sliding their feet really well out on the perimeter. And this has the potential to make the Warriors' defense look very imposing.
And of course, there's a way to make this defense look even more imposing if the Warriors didn't have three point guards on the floor at the same time. That being Steph, Curry, Pods, and Melton here. But at least Melton is a really reliable POA. And that means ultimately the Warriors have three surplus defenders on the floor at the same time. You want to make sure that you have three surplus defenders and not two. Because if you have just two, that means you have three deficits on the floor at the same time. Those are the types of things that the Warriors need to avoid. And at least Pause has really been picking up his own play as of late on the offensive end of the floor. In this particular game, his playmaking was actually quite good. He threw a bunch of lobs, which throughout his career, historically, he's just not been a very good passer. He's not consistently shown that he's capable of throwing lob passes and creating easy buckets for his teammates. But in this one, he did a lot of that. Like look at this play in transition after Horford got the steal. It's P and TJD is running the floor. There's a quick two-on-one opportunity here and P does the right thing. Throws up the lob to Trace and hallelujah, TJD finally gets a lob from P and he gets the two points.
And I've been saying this a long time when it comes to Trace Jackson Davis. It is so easy for him to score if he just has some capable guys that can just throw him some lobs. If the team can simply create a few opportunities in a game where they throw like three to four lobs per game to Trace, those are three to four free buckets at the rim. And as you know, we have been harping about the importance and the impact of points in the paint. And Trace is one of the very few guys on this team that is capable of giving you that because he's capable of playing above the rim while also providing the team with anchoring ability. He is a major asset to the Warriors. As a vet's minimum player, he has a lot of capable similarities as a player like Gafford, who the Warriors apparently might be interested in trading for, which just doesn't make any sense. What a waste of resources. Gafford gets paid like $18 million per year. TJD gets paid 2 million per year and he can do a lot of the things that a guy like Gafford does. If you want to call TJD a poor man's version of Gafford, that's fine. But you're getting like value from TJD for 1/8 of the cost. That's why it's such a waste of resources for the Warriors to try to go get another center. You have three viable centers on the team already. Go get a wing with size, preferably one that can shoot so that the Warriors don't have to bring four guards off their bench at the same time. Ideally, if the Warriors are going to play a 10-man rotation, you want three forwards coming off their bench and two guards coming off their bench. At most, you bring three guards off their bench. Certainly not four.
But yes, Steve Kerr did a great job making sure that TJD stays in rotation because he's been playing so well. And when a guy makes such an impact, you want to make sure that you reward him and not punish him as Kerr has been doing to Ge Santos all season long. Gez Santos is still needed more than one of the guards that are still coming off their bench. That's the move that is going to take the Warriors to the next level. The Warriors won this game barely by double digits. They won by 10 points. They could have won this game by 20, 25 points if they had Santos in there over one of their guards. So that's the next big explosive move that we are looking for from the Warriors for them to reach the next level. Unfortunately, if an injury doesn't happen to one of the guards, I just don't see that happening because Steve Curry is not capable of making a move like that.
But yeah, here's another one for Trace. Steph Curry is coming off the curl here and Trace is rolling. Steph makes a very simple pass to a cutting Trace and Brandon Williams is not even going to bother trying here. This is a dunk for Trace. And again, how comically easy was that? No complicated multiple passes. It's just one simple pass to one cutter and it's an explosive finish at the rim. To pretend that they don't have this to almost never run this and treat TJD like he's Cavan Looney has been utterly ridiculous over the last three seasons.
But the bigger story for the first quarter was about Al Horford and his return and his ability to stretch the floor by hitting his three-point shots. Obviously, he struggled out of the gates. I think everybody has been struggling from the three-point line for this team in a variety of ways, especially over the last five games or so. But Horford came out guns blazing as Jimmy Butler to Horford every time in a two-man game. And Horford has enough space, he launches it, and he's just simply knocking it down. And again, I think what's important is the simplicity of it. When the Warriors are passing, passing, passing, passing, passing, and then somebody finally gets open, that puts a lot of pressure on the shooter to convert that shot because they did so much to get that shot. You understand what I mean? When it comes from a much simpler play like a Steph Curry pick and pop or Jimmy Butler drawing two and dishing to an open shooter, that's much more simple. There's much less pressure because they didn't do so much to get an open look for that three-point shooter. It's just one simple pass and the catcher is like, "Oh, okay. Well, this is easy enough. There's not a lot of pressure here. The main option gave me the ball to shoot this, so this is fine." So, there's much less psychological pressure for that open three-point shooter to shoot that shot versus a gazillion passes and somebody finally gets open. And now that shooter ends up being the main guy, the entire offense worked to get an open shot for it. This is a very nuanced point, but I hope that you can understand what I'm talking about in terms of the difference and the pressure that the shooter feels as he shoots the shot.
But yeah, with Horford hitting four three-point shots in that first quarter, the Warriors get all the way up to 40 points in that first quarter. Obviously, that made a giant difference in this game because the score was 40 to 28 in that first quarter. The Warriors won the game by 10 points.
Now, for the second quarter, I would say the main players that we have to focus on are Pods and Draymond. And I want to say this about Pods. A lot of the issues that I have with Pods, outside of his inconsistent play, is more of the fact that he's involved in a whole bunch of three-guard lineups where I just feel like, okay, you're good, but is the compromisation on the defensive end of the floor, is that worth it for this team? And to me, it's not. So when he starts playing inconsistently on the offensive end on top of that, then what exactly is the worth of having him in these three-guard, four-guard lineups and really small lineups in general if he's not good enough for you on offense anyway? But ultimately that's more of a Steve Kerr issue than a Pods issue. But obviously Pots has been permanently coming off the bench and I feel like he's really found his rhythm in terms of how he can be effective for this team. He's just been a lot more decisive. Certainly more decisive than a guy like Moses Moody. And his playmaking has been coming around a little bit more as well on top of being more confident as a scoring threat.
But yeah, Pots got out in transition many times in this game. And I'm pretty sure this is the best game of his career in terms of throwing lobs and creating easy opportunities for his teammates. And throwing lobs, believe it or not, is a skill. You have to make sure that the defense doesn't see it coming. You have to make sure that you are a threat driving to the rim. And obviously, the pass has to be accurate. These are a lot of the things that Pod has been having problems with over the years. But as you can see in these replays, a successful lob to Jimmy Butler, a successful lob to even Moses Moody. I don't think I've ever seen that. A Pod's lob to Moses Moody. And the one that he has most trouble with most often times, a lob in the pick and roll situation. And here he is converting one of those with TJD, which again is a rarity for TJD and Pots to have this kind of connection. And I'm telling you, if the Warriors can simply involve TJD some in their offense and run simple pick and roll plays like this and allow him to finish lob plays, that's going to energize him on both ends of the floor and it's going to give him the confidence that he often doesn't have because the team often never runs anything for him.
It's also refreshing to see the Warriors run a lot more pick and rolls because the pick and roll can be a very effective play for this team and they often don't run it and they run the motion offense to the ground because that's what Steve Kerr prefers. But we saw a lot of pick and rolls in this game and almost always when they do we see the value of it. And if Pods can remain an effective player out of the pick and roll, that's where you have much less of a need for a guy like Pat for a guy like Pat Spencer who was in rotation in the last game. I mean, imagine having five guards coming off your bench. And one of them also includes Pat Spencer. It's absolutely ridiculous. You should not have that many guards on the floor at the same time. So that is another adjustment that we saw. Pat Spencer is out of the rotation and he needs to remain out of the rotation because there are too many guards for this team as it is.
But yes, Trace got a whole bunch of opportunities in that second quarter and his defense just makes such a difference for this team. And this guy Brandon Williams was very problematic for the Warriors. The Warriors guards had trouble staying in front of him. Like here as well, Melton just completely gets blown by, but Trac is right there to block the shot at the rim. And here it is once again. And Brandon Williams is able to create separation from Melton out of the pick and roll and he's point blank at the rim. And this is not an easy situation for Trace. He has to gap between the ball handler and his own man. If he gets off of his own man, Gafford is going to end up with a lob. So he does a subtle feint here as if he's going to contest the shot and he ultimately doesn't, but that throws Brandon Williams just enough and somehow turning this layup into a miss. It's subtle, but that's powerful presence by Trace. And I hope you can see the beauty of Trace's intentions always on the floor as the anchor of this team. He's always seeking and looking to help a teammate. And that's the type of mentality that powers any great defense.
So here Naji Marshall has a mismatch advantage on Pods and he's going all the way to the rim. But Trac is once again right there. And that help turns this shot into a comical miss. Preventing easy shot opportunities in the paint area is vital. And having a guy like him out there makes a huge difference for the Warriors' defense. And a guy like Naji Marshall is a really good offensive player and he's out in transition here and he sees TJD and he goes to attack him and actually he gave a little push off to Trace and he created enough separation to be able to make the shot. But Marshall ends up leaving this shot well short at the rim simply because of the intimidation factor of Trace being there. I mean if you had a guard in the place of Trace or even Draymond, Marshall is 100% scoring on this play. And if you can't quite picture that, well this is exactly what that looks like. Yeah. When it's somebody else on that floor and especially when it's a guard, things can look completely different and it can look comically easy for a guy like Marshall and even a guy like Cooper Flag completely had his way in this game offensively. But you can see on this play, Trace has Cooper Flag and Cooper goes all the way to the rim. Trace is there all the way. And again, just having a larger body and a guy who's capable of blocking shots there, it alters what type of shot Cooper Flag would end up taking and this turns into a pretty bad miss.
And yeah, instead of Steve Curry going to some tiny lineup to close the second quarter, he actually ended up playing with this unit a whole lot. It was Pots, Melton, Moody, Jimmy Butler, and Trace. And once again, you got three surplus-ish defenders on the floor, that being TJD, Melton, and let's add Moody in there. And then you got two neutrals and Jimmy Butler and P. And that's another example of a formation where the defense works. But I'm telling you, man, if they simply dwindle this down to two guards, let's say Melton, Moody, Butler, Santos, and TJD, oh man, could a unit like that do some massive damage. Or even if you want to do Melton Pods, Jimmy Butler, Santos, and TJD. That is another unit that would do a lot of damage.
But yeah, you see here once again, another pick and roll for Brandon Williams. And usually he has an advantage here, but he does not see an advantage with Trey, so he can't go anywhere. And he ends up throwing this lob and Melton does a really good job of giving Gaffer some trouble here. So Gaffer can't just catch a lob and throw the dunk here. And then there's a scrambling situation and Trace is able to get a hand on the ball and the Warriors are out in transition. And look at more two-way play for Trace who's once again running the floor. Jimmy Butler has an advantage in the paint, but he sees the bigger Trace cutting in. And this guy Christy is simply too small to contest TJD at the rim.
Now comparatively, I like to show you some Draymond stuff here. Draymond makes a nice cut out of the split action, but he gets blocked at the rim by PJ Washington. Draymond is nowhere near the finisher in that paint area compared to a guy like Trace or even Quinton Post, honestly. And Draymond ultimately ended up having two turnovers in this game, but the wildness of his passes continues. This stuff is going to really hurt the Warriors if they keep going to it, let's say in the playoffs, for example, because Draymond's hand-eye coordination is off the rails as he gets older. I mean, some of these passes are truly just wild. And he's like a robot sometimes with some of these passes. Like here, he's trying to back door Steph Curry into a pass, but Curry is getting top-locked by his defender here. This is not necessarily the easiest cut. So, it's a gamble for Draymond to make this pass that goes to nobody and it's a really awful turnover. And look at this play by Draymond out of the pick and roll. He has a free pass to the rim essentially. And if he goes off strong enough, maybe he gets a dunk out of this play, but instead he makes the pass to the corner, which is not a bad idea, but he's throwing the pass that's basically going out of bounds. And forget getting an open shot, Moody has to save this ball from going out of bounds. And it's just really bad execution. And here's yet another one. To close the second quarter, the Warriors are running that stupid tiny lineup. And he makes the pass to a cutting Jimmy Butler, which again is the right idea. But this pass is not high enough and Christy is easily able to pick off the play. It's not that Draymond doesn't have the right intentions, but where he's placing these passes just isn't good enough. And he's consistently placing these passes in an errant way where the other team is either able to get to it or the pass itself is just really awful to begin with. And that's why on offense, I would rather see Draymond take on a diminished role, stay in the corner, stay at the three-point lines, and if either Jimmy Butler or Steph Curry chooses to make the pass to him, well, then take this shot and make sure you knock it down and work on your efficiency. I'd rather see Draymond get a shot up than watch him just throw the ball away.
I just want to show you a few more Draymond stuff. He continues to show that even on the defensive end of the floor, he's just not quite the same anymore. Like look here, he's guarding a pick and roll and he's just not as good as gapping a pick and roll play as Quinton Post or TJD. I think Quinton is number one in terms of being able to gap that play, guarding the ball handler and his man at the same time. Trace comes second and then is Draymond cuz see here he's not really gapping. He's just double-teaming PJ Washington at this point. And there's no way he can recover on his own man going to the rim for the dunk here. And this one is extra unfortunate because here he's sharing the floor with Quinton Post. So, it's not like the Warriors failed on this play because they were too small.
And look at this play in the fourth quarter where Draymond has PJ Washington all alone by himself. And look at the position that he allows Washington to get here. Look at how far down he gets into that paint area. And look how easy this shot looks over Draymond. Not good. And watch this play here in the fourth quarter. The Warriors are still running that small lineup. It's not working well. Cooper flag is out in transition and he's attacking Steph Curry. And then it's Moody and P trying to protect the paint area. This is absolutely silly. Draymond is at the three-point line trying to guard Klay Thompson. So, Moody does his best to try to be a presence here, but Cooper Flag is too big for him. He's able to easily get this offensive rebound. Draymond is too late and he ends up fouling Flag at the rim. And look at this play going down the stretch of the fourth quarter. Once again, the Warriors are electing to go to a small lineup and Brandon Williams here is able to split both Melton and Jimmy Butler. Jimmy Butler is not in a good defensive position here. He needs to get lower. He doesn't need to be guarding Flag this high up. So flag is going full head of steam to the rim and Draymond cannot do anything to deter him and it ends up being a free layup.
Thank God Steve Curry elected to bring Trace back into the equation in that fourth quarter in the middle of the fourth quarter. Here's an example of Trace gapping the defense. Initially he's making sure that Nemhard does not have a path to the rim blowing by pods and then he gets back on his man PJ Washington and he has the size, length, and athleticism to bother this shot enough into a miss. This is the same shot that he easily made over Draymond earlier in the game. And this play right here is absolutely disgusting because Trace was able to play amazing defense. Grouper flag is attacking in transition going right at Moody. And Trace follows and times it perfectly and blocks the shot. But the refs call a goaltend on this play, robbing Trace of a block shot, robbing the Warriors of great defense.
But here's another play on offense. It's about 6 minutes left in the fourth quarter. The Warriors are clinging to a seven-point lead. So, they need to make sure that they continue to build upon what they have. And Melton is able to get all the way to the cup, but Gafford is there and his presence forces the shot into a miss. But Trace is right there and he's able to guide this shot into the rim. And yet again, this is another example of a play that a guy like Draymond Green simply cannot make. Draymond is not putting this ball back up over Gafford.
And you know, one thing I'll say about the closing lineup that Steve Kerr ended up using in this game, which was Steph Curry, Melton, GP2, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green. I would say that closing with Melton and GP2 is better than closing with Pots and Moody. There's just more force on the defensive end of the floor. That's the kind of lineup I would say is capable of playing neutral basketball rather than completely outplaying the opponents because once again, it's just a little too small. You have Steph Curry 6'3, Melton is 6'2, GP2 is listed at 6'2. And again, you have Jimmy Butler and Draymond playing out of position at the four and the five. And this kind of lineup is heavily reliant on a guy like GP2 to execute really crisply on the offensive end of the floor to make it worth it. And that's a bit of a crapshoot. You know, you're playing against a Mavericks. Okay, GP2 is playing really well. Their defense is not good enough. AD is not even in the game. But if you're playing against better opponents with more size, more imposing defense on all these things, GP2 is not just going to be able to live in the paint all day and night and the lack of size there is eventually going to get overwhelmed. But again, at the very least, GP2 and Melton, that's the two best POAs the Warriors have on this roster. So, in that sense, they're definitely providing Draymond some help defensively. There are three surplus defenders out there in Melton, GP2, and Draymond. I do think that with a lineup like that out there, it just makes more sense to have a bigger player at the center spot, be it a Trace or Quinton Post. You just can't have your tallest guy on the floor be Jimmy Butler at 6'7.
Like look at this play. Cooper flag sets a nice screen on Steph Curry. Christy is cutting to the rim and the Warriors' defense essentially here is broken. GP2 does his best to slide over and contest leaving his man Naji Marshall wide open. Christy, all he had to do was make this pass and this might have been a three-point shot for the Mavericks. And this is the kind of defensive breakdowns that the Warriors cannot be having in the final three to four minutes of the game. But Christy chooses to keep the ball. GP2 is out of the play. And Melton also does his best to try to contest this shot at the rim. And luckily, because it's Christy and not some bigger guy, this layup attempt just came up short. So, you can see how a small lineup like this, it ended up working out on this play. But against a lot of better teams, this is not going to work. And again, this is not a knock on GP2 or Melton, obviously, by any measure. These are players that are capable of being fantastic if they're put in the right position with the right group of players. And not to say that this is not the right group of players, but it's not quite good enough. Although it worked in this game. And again, GP2 was really fantastic. Here's an example of where he's such an explosive player next to Steph Curry. He initially sets the pin down screen and then he just cuts so fast to the rim. Draymond makes the right pass and GP2 is able to finish above the rim.
But yeah, let me cap this off by showing a couple of Steph Curry highlights on defense here. He's guarding Brandon Williams, and he does a better job against this guy than just about any other guard was able to on him. And look at Curry. He's just up in Williams' space, not making it easy for him to dribble the ball, not allowing any blow-bys, just staying connected to him. And then Draymond is there to help cut the driving space, and then he recovers on his man Christy. And the Warriors are able to get a stop. And then Steph Curry on the other end of the floor. He was really off his game as usual on Christmas Day, but he hit the one that mattered the most. He sees some daylight here with Cooper flag in front of him and he just launches it and hits [clears throat] this shot and it turns into an 11-point lead with three and a half minutes left to go. And that was enough of a lead for the Warriors to hold on to and they were able to get this win.
So to conclude, the Warriors still are relying on too many guards on the floor, too many smaller players, still too many minutes with Draymond at the center spot, especially to close the game. And I'm telling you, it is impossible for the Warriors to be the best version of themselves with this type of basketball. So, we'll see how much longer it takes for Steve Kerr to play bigger lineups, and we'll see how long it takes for him to play the absolute right combination of players. But again, for now, a lot of the headaches in the rotation that makes no sense are out. Buddy Heel is no longer in rotation. Kaminga obviously has been out of rotation for a while. Pat Spencer also is now out of the rotation. And again, that is not a knock on Pat Spencer, but you just can't have five of your bench players be guards that are 6'4 and under. And we'll see if the trend of Al Horford and Trace both being in rotation at the same time is a thing. And we'll see how long it takes for Geese Santos to finally permanently be in rotation because they are going to need him in order to keep their defense connected to the max. Woo, that's a lot of coverage. I hope you enjoyed that for what it is. Thank you so much for watching. As always, next game up is on Sunday. I'll see you then.