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[Music] [Music] Hello, Tomorrow Live with Tod. It's 11:00 AM on Monday, July 6, 2026. Let's follow the situation in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global energy transport route, which is now recovering and seeing more and more shipping. There are recent signs of oil tankers and cargo ships continuously departing from the Strait of Hormuz area. The improvement in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has caused oil prices to fall. NEX oil prices are currently at $68 per barrel, while WTI oil prices are around $71 per barrel. However, what we need to follow today is the signal of relaxation that might turn into a tense situation in the coming days. This is after some indicators have led geopolitical analysts and experts to believe that the Strait of Hormuz area is still untrustworthy and carries the risk of renewed clashes. This is especially true in the period after the funeral ceremony of the former Supreme Leader. Currently, there is another noteworthy news item: the Red Sea area near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, where there have been reports of attacks on cargo ships. This report comes from UKMTO, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, which stated that a cargo ship was attacked off the coast of Yemen in the Red Sea. This is the latest attack following the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz and the Middle East. The attack, according to reports, was carried out by armed assailants of unknown affiliation at a distance of about 30 nautical miles, or 55 kilometers, southwest of the city of Mocha. This is the latest attack, but there are no reports yet linking it to the Strait of Hormuz or the conflict between the United States and Iran. This is one indicator that the transport situation in the Middle East is not yet normal. However, the more frightening point is the Strait of Hormuz, which shows signs of potential renewed clashes. Why is this happening, and what should the world remain vigilant about, even though the peace MOU has been signed and is currently in effect? Today, we will discuss and analyze with Professor Chirachai Phuvananurak, former Minister of Finance. He has honored us with his presence again today. Hello, Professor. >> Hello, Guitar. >> Hello. Before asking the Professor to analyze the Strait of Hormuz, where he has observed the risk of renewed clashes, there have been clashes and attacks in the Red Sea, which is a high-risk area that the world fears might be the next flashpoint after Hormuz. Professor, do you see this latest attack yesterday as frightening or as a dangerous signal? >> Previously, I viewed attacks like this in the Red Sea as being on a different battlefield, a different war, from the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. This is because the Houthi group has a long-standing animosity with the Yemeni government and with the Saudi Arabian government. In the past, Saudi Arabia attempted to use aircraft to bomb Yemen to eliminate the Houthi group, but it was unsuccessful. This is because the terrain in Yemen is not unlike Iran; the areas near the Red Sea are very mountainous. The Houthi forces can hide in caves or crevices in the mountains, making it difficult for aircraft to find targets. This type of decentralized warfare, as practiced by the Houthi forces, is something the United States has also experienced. For a period, the US and UK also tried to bomb targets there, but they couldn't find specific targets and ended up bombing cities, causing hardship to ordinary Yemeni civilians. Therefore, what I see now is that Yemen, and the Houthi group, and Yemen itself, are trying to open up the country more normally. Recently, a commercial aircraft carrying passengers arrived in Yemen from Iran. Saudi Arabia tried to pressure the situation by sending two fighter jets. However, after that, they didn't dare to do anything, and the passenger plane landed in the capital of Yemen as usual. Yemen has been trying to communicate that trade, travel, and other activities with Yemen are now normal after extensive bombing. Reconstruction and repairs are underway. Therefore, the current conflict, I suspect, is the Houthis wanting to send another signal to Saudi Arabia. They are saying that if civilian passenger planes are allowed to enter, and then fighter jets are sent to pressure them, they will retaliate by attacking ships. I just checked the news to try and find the nationality and owner of the ship. Do you have any information, Guitar? >> Just a moment, Professor. >> Please let the team read it. But from what I see, it appears to be a demonstration to Saudi Arabia that they can indeed block this strait whenever they wish. If they block it, ships trading with Saudi Arabia will have to enter and exit through Yemen, and if they want to transport oil from Saudi Arabia, they will have to go around Africa, a very long detour, through the Mediterranean, then the Suez Canal, and only then can they proceed. After getting the oil, they would have to go around again, meaning the costs would be very high, and the number of ships capable of doing this would be insufficient. Therefore, the attack on the ship in the strait, if it is an operation to threaten and show Saudi Arabia that it's time to back down, then it is a threat that will definitely be effective. >> Yes, but Professor, how do you see this connecting to the signals regarding the conflict between the US and Iran? >> I don't see any connection. I see this as a case between Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and the Houthis. Specifically. >> It has not yet been specified which country the cargo ship belongs to. It is only reported as a commercial ship attacked by unknown armed forces. The UKMTO also advised other ships to proceed with caution. However, this incident has been viewed as a parallel operation, with Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz and the linked Houthi forces controlling the Red Sea area. This might be just one attack, but do you think it could escalate into more severe attacks or a larger conflict, or will it continue to be attacks of this nature? >> Whenever Iran tightens its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, it is possible in the future that they will do so in conjunction with the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, using the Houthis to apply pressure. However, to do that, I believe that if Iran wants to signal that they will close both straits simultaneously, they must first show signs at Hormuz and then signal that they will close them together. But this happened first. Iran hasn't done anything yet. So, I see this as a separate issue, like a minor play, a small drama, a staged fight between Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Iran. But it's not yet part of the larger play. >> Yes, but what would be a signal, Professor, that the scene is changing, that it might connect to the larger play or the operations in the Strait of Hormuz? What else should we be vigilant about in the Red Sea area? >> After the 9th. The period of the funeral ceremony extends until the 9th. After the 9th, if Iran decides to escalate, they will start to put pressure on the Strait of Hormuz again. That's when, if there are operations in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, whether announced by Iran or not, if they happen together, it clearly indicates a joint pressure. And such pressure would likely focus on oil tankers. >> This sounds like a very important issue to watch. The Professor mentioned after July 9th, after the funeral of the former Supreme Leader has passed. What is the indicator that something will happen after the 9th, Professor? >> This is my opinion and analysis based on my personal knowledge and expertise. It may not align with everyone's views, and ultimately, it may not reflect what actually happens. Therefore, please listen and gather more information to weigh it further. >> But if I am correct, I am concerned that starting next week, there will be an escalation of tension in the Strait of Hormuz, which will lead to oil prices skyrocketing again. And I believe this will cause the global economy to be in a state of panic once more. Here's the thing: we need to go back to when we saw the MOU, all 14 articles, if I recall correctly. Most analysts immediately declared that the US lost, Trump lost, and Iran won. They said Iran gained everything, with only one loss: agreeing not to develop nuclear weapons. But the uranium that has been enriched to a high purity is still kept, and they haven't decided what to do with it yet. So, Iran still holds its cards. Therefore, many people thought that Iran had won this time and that the tension in the Strait of Hormuz, the clashes, would cease. I myself thought that this would bring relief to the world, at least until the midterm elections in the US in November. But then, the latest information came in, which I find concerning. Here's the situation: if we look at the 14 articles in the MOU and interpret it as the US only losing and Iran only gaining, upon closer inspection, it's not that straightforward. It's not automatic. Because, you see, there are two things that Iran is very focused on, very hopeful about. One is their money that has been frozen. This goes back to the fact that this is Iran's money, not American money. It's money from the time of the Shah, over 40 years ago. The Shah imported goods from various countries and used dollars, money obtained from selling oil, to deposit in central banks of other countries to prepare for importing goods and making payments. Then, the revolution happened, and not just any revolution; Iran seized the US embassy and took hostages. The US froze Iran's money scattered around the world, forbidding anyone from returning it to Iran or releasing it. This means no one dared to do so, because if they released money to Iran, that country would be cut off from trading with the US banking system. So, no one dared to do this for a long time. I wasn't sure of the amount at first, but from what I've seen on social media, they talk about hundreds of billions of dollars, perhaps up to $120 billion or even $100 billion. This negotiation has been reported from the beginning that Iran was hoping to get this frozen money released, perhaps up to $12 billion, with the first installment of $6 billion, and then another $6 billion shortly after. There was also an incentive mentioned: once an agreement was reached, the US would actively seek funds from Arab countries to establish a fund for investment in Iran, a large sum of money. Since they had destroyed their property, this would give them an opportunity to receive funds for reconstruction, totaling $300 billion. All of this makes it seem like this is what Iran might have dreamed of. Furthermore, the US has temporarily suspended sanctions on Iranian oil exports for 60 days. Iran might have someone who hoped this would lead to a permanent and complete lifting of all sanctions, both primary and secondary. Frankly, I see it clearly that all of this is just a lure. Because the decision-maker, the one who controls the goalposts for Iran to get money from frozen assets or the $300 billion investment fund, is the US. Therefore, they will keep moving the goalposts, making them bigger or smaller. It will never be clear that this will actually happen. Besides the sanctions, after 60 days, there is no guarantee that the sanctions will be permanently lifted. I see this as a two-tiered situation. Initially, the general public would cheer, saying Iran won, the US lost. >> I don't think so. Trump has a hidden strategy. It's like he's tricking Iran into being happy, but in reality, it can't happen. But I'm confused, why would Iran agree? Because if they put pressure, if Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices will rise. And when they rise to a certain point, Trump will also be in trouble because a high oil price will lead to a global economic downturn. Trump will be blamed for the global economy. Furthermore, when the global economy worsens, it will affect the US economy. The worst part is that when global oil prices rise, it inevitably affects retail oil prices in America, making them higher too. I'm thinking, is there something that made Iran agree and sign this deal? There was news, published in The New York Times on July 4th, and in the print edition on July 5th, yesterday. If you, Guitar, can show it, you'll see. Information leaked from Iran states that the Governor of the Central Bank of Iran wrote a letter to the current leader, his son, stating that the country is facing a major problem. The biggest problem is that by the end of August, in two months, July and August, the people will have no food and no medicine. Basic necessities will disappear. This is because of the US blockade. Therefore, they said they believe the deal should be accepted to lift the blockade. With this information, I can see clearly that this is a clear indication that if the US does not lift the blockade, Iran will face severe internal unrest soon. People will have nothing to eat. Some reports on social media show families eating only one meal a day in Iran. They are in dire straits. And we must not forget that they have been under sanctions for a long time. I sat and wondered if it was really that bad. I looked into what Iran imports. They import a lot of food annually, worth $6 billion, $8 billion, $9 billion. This includes wheat, rice, cooking oil, and various food items. With the blockade, these cannot enter. Before this, Iran was under sanctions, causing problems in importing goods from various countries. When making payments, they had to devise mechanisms to circumvent the system because their money, frozen in various banks, central banks, in dollars, could not be released. So, they had to use roundabout methods, which seemed quite complex, but allowed them to import food and medicine, and hospital supplies, by using indirect payment systems to the extent possible, avoiding the US system. However, when the blockade was imposed, and the US blocked ships, it not only physically prevented ships from entering but also made suppliers concerned. Even if the US lifts the blockade now, will they receive payment? There is no guarantee because Iran cannot open Letters of Credit normally. Wow, looking at this, it seems like a major weakness for Iran, forcing them to accept the deal. But in return, what Iran gets is that they are preparing their oil tankers. They have them ready at the Strait. Once the agreement is made, they will release their ships first. So, Iranian oil will be exported. But what they have to exchange is not just their oil; oil from Arab countries in the Gulf will also be exported. Therefore, oil from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, etc., will start to be exported. This makes Trump look good because oil prices have fallen. But looking at this, I try to imagine the future from Iran's perspective. It's clear now that they have a weakness, and this weakness has been exposed to the world through The New York Times. Trump must also know this. So, by nature, when Trump sees a weakness, he will exploit it. Therefore, as of today, Trump is playing for time, because the longer he drags this out, the more Iran will be forced to its knees by the end of August. They will not be able to clear their import system and will have to surrender. Wow, looking at this. >> I think if Iran has reached this point and surrenders, I don't think it's possible. This is not me supporting any side, nor am I wishing for chaos or trouble in the world. But I am trying to weigh the national interests as the primary factor. If I were an Iranian administrator, >> I would seize this opportunity to put immense pressure on America. Right now, exporting oil has given me some breathing room. Iran has reportedly sent out 20 of its own tankers. They are sailing to Asia. To sell oil again, they have to wait for these ships. These ships take about a month to reach Asia, unload the oil, and another month to return. So, to actually sell oil, it will be by the end of August. In the meantime, they gain nothing. Previously, they were selling oil and getting money. Now, if they sell to China, they get yuan, which at least allows them to import some goods from China. But if they continue to open up, the ones selling oil will be Arab countries, not them. Therefore, their enthusiasm to open the Strait of Hormuz further, I think, has decreased. If I were them, I would start thinking about using the pressure on the Strait of Hormuz to make oil prices skyrocket, to turn the game around and gain an advantage. >> So, from the current situation, they have become the disadvantaged party because of the limitations on importing food due to the US blockade. >> Exactly. Therefore, it has become a situation where Iran is desperate. And if I were them, I would show my strength after the 9th. Showing strength means fighting primarily over the Strait of Hormuz. Now, looking at this map I sent, Figure 3, this map is interesting. As I've mentioned before, the Strait of Hormuz, in the middle, between Iran above and Oman below, is the original channel. Iran placed mines there, so ships entering and exiting must deviate to the northern channel, which is the yellow line, or the southern channel, which is within the red oval. The northern channel is Iran's, and the southern channel is Oman's. Now, the US has coordinated with Oman to open the southern channel. Trump himself has tried to use social media to tell cargo ships that they can pass through the southern channel safely, that there are no mines. However, ships passing through previously did not use it because Iran was still using drones to attack. Later, after the MOU was signed, America realized that if the MOU was signed, Iran would not attack them. So, they organized ships into convoys, perhaps 3 or 4 ships at a time, sailing continuously. They would deploy aircraft, surveillance aircraft, fast and slow aircraft, and refuel them to escort these continuous convoys of 3 or 4 ships safely through Oman's channel. As seen in this picture, recently, most ships passing through have used Iran's channel, the yellow line, which is said to be linked to Iran, UAE, or Singapore. However, there are some ships, as you can observe in the two oval shapes below, that the US has pressured to pass through the southern route. You can now remove this picture. Now, looking at this, if Iran is to start applying pressure again, they must find a way to stop ships from passing through Oman's channel. We will have to see how they do it. There are several ways. It might not even require sending drones to attack, as before. They could use GPS jamming, which would cause disruption. Or they could threaten. Or, more severely, they could declare a military exercise zone and deploy drones to that area, blocking the Omani channel from both sides. We will have to watch next week if Iran starts to return to this approach. It will manifest as closing the southern route, while the northern route is open. Iran will then tell America that if the $6 billion, which was promised, has not arrived yet, they will collect fees for ships passing through. So, based on this, the risk of escalation of tension next week is quite high. >> Yes, but Professor, if Iran returns to using pressure tactics by operating in the Strait of Hormuz this time, will the outcome be different? Because the world now seems to have hope that this area should be used for transport, and we have gradually seen allies of America participating, such as France. Will Iran's operations this time not be as easy as before, Professor? >> Of course. If Iran's operations are to increase pressure, it will be a pressure because they themselves have agreed and signed the MOU to some extent. Therefore, they will have to create a scene, create a situation that doesn't make them look like villains, but ultimately, I think they will maintain their stance that they did not attack Israel first, they did not initiate attacks on America first. >> These two countries suddenly came and bombed them, continuously for many days, using bombs, hitting over ten thousand points, causing their property to be damaged. The estimated damage was $300 billion, and they said they would bring investment funds. Now, even their own money, Iran's money, that is frozen, is not being released. So, looking at it this way, I think they will try to create reasons, excuses, and necessities to make the world see that they have been wronged. And their need to close the Strait of Hormuz again will be for this reason. The difficulty for Iran will be in creating legitimacy. If we go back, if Iran had not been attacked, and not just in the first day or two, but their leader was beheaded, and then they were bombed continuously until their property was severely damaged, then if Iran, out of the blue, disrupted the peaceful world by controlling the Strait of Hormuz, the world would definitely not accept it. But since Iran has been attacked, it's as if America, Trump, has opened a special door for Iran. With this door open, I don't think Iran will back down easily. However, if they don't back down, and if asked what they will do to prevent ships from passing through the Omani channel effectively, they can do it. Iran still has immense drone capabilities. Just sending 10 or 20 drones a day, even as a threat, by announcing specific targets, if they send them every 2-3 days, or every day, insurance companies will refuse to cover them. But this will create tension with America again. >> Yes, but Professor, do you think Iran will only operate to pressure America by closing the Strait of Hormuz, and not escalate to using military force in other areas, or not intend to restart a war? >> I think Iran has been significantly damaged. Therefore, what they will do now is just enough to maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz. Perhaps the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will also be involved, we will have to wait and see. But in this manner, I think they will act with restraint. Even America, which attacked Iran, has seen its offensive weapon stocks, like missiles for attack, depleted by half. They used so much against Iran that it will take 3 to 5 years to replenish some of them, given the current production speed. >> Therefore, if they fight again, their remaining 50% stock will be further depleted, and the military will not be happy. >> What about the impact on the global economy, Professor? The last time the Strait of Hormuz was closed, oil prices rose by over 30%, exceeding $120. Now, it has returned to the previous level before the war. Will this new closure cause oil prices to skyrocket again? >> If it's closed, it will skyrocket. They close it to make it skyrocket. If it's open, it means they want it to skyrocket. And when it skyrockets, it creates pressure. We can only hope that if it skyrockets, it will be in Iran's interest to make it as high as they can. We can only hope it's not for too long, because if it's just for a short period, the global economy might be able to cope. >> And what is your assessment of this round's impact? We are still unsure how definitive the closure will be, or what the impact on oil prices will be. What should the world prepare for in the next few days? >> If it closes, and let's assume everything is resolved by July. If it's resolved by July, it means Trump has conceded. In other words, "Okay, the $6 billion you mentioned, your money, let's release it, but not directly into Iran's account. Let it go to a neutral country, like Qatar, with a verification process." Because now, they are being attacked, and they want to protect themselves from accusations, like Obama releasing money, or Biden releasing money, and being accused of Iran using this money to build weapons. Therefore, they will say that if an agreement is reached, then $6 billion will be released and held in Qatar's account. The use must be strictly for purchasing food, medicine, and other necessities, and must not be related to purchasing weapons. However, I think if Trump concedes, it might stabilize things, and Iran might agree to release oil again. But if Trump does not concede and drags this out, I believe that if Iran starts this way, oil prices will definitely rise. It depends on who dies first. >> Both are in critical condition. It depends on who dies first. >> As for oil, Professor, how high do you estimate it could go? During the previous turnaround, it was $120. But the IRGC mentioned figures as high as $200. >> It probably won't reach $200. But I think this time, if Iran wants to be effective, they must make it rise quickly. And remember, the oil futures market has many short sellers. >> A lot, historically high. >> If an event occurs, this short covering will cause prices to jump. So, it depends on whether the events will cause the US economy and politics to ease their stance against Iran, perhaps because oil prices have risen so high that Americans have to pay so much that they say, "Let's just compromise." But there is still an unknown factor. There is another unpredictable event: Netanyahu in Israel. That is very difficult to predict and could change the situation. >> We have news that Netanyahu has requested a one-on-one meeting with Trump, and Trump has agreed to a meeting next week. >> That's right. We have to wait for events after the funeral ceremony. >> Yes. >> Netanyahu requested a meeting with Trump. He must have something in mind. It's probably not to ask America to attack Iran again, as before. But this time, Netanyahu has a problem with his poll numbers in Israel. His popularity has dropped. Currently, according to polls, he is losing in the upcoming elections. Israeli politicians are trying to build sentiment among Israelis. If a survey is conducted on whether people support Israel in waging war, whether against small or large entities, the support has risen to 90%. This indicates that Israelis are concerned about their survival and believe that offensive warfare is the way to survive. This is why Benjamin Netanyahu's popularity has declined. His opponents, led by a more hardline figure named Bennet, are more aggressive than Netanyahu. This might be why people are leaning towards them. Therefore, Netanyahu's political future is hanging by a thread. If he loses the election, which will occur by the end of October, his future will be bleak. So, he will be desperate. As for Trump, from what I see, he has a very close relationship with Netanyahu. Why? Because his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, his father is Jewish, a wealthy man in New York. There are reports that when Netanyahu visited New York, he stayed at the home of Trump's father-in-law. The owner of the house had to give up his master bedroom to Netanyahu and stay in another room due to full security. This shows that Trump has a deep relationship with Netanyahu through his son-in-law, and perhaps through their philosophies and mutual admiration. There are rumors, whether true or not, that he might be blackmailed over the F-35 case. Because F-35 is said to be an operation where Mossad, Israel's intelligence agency, has embedded agents to obtain secrets from important political figures in America and other countries. All of this suggests that Netanyahu's request for a meeting indicates he has a plan to do something. If he does, it will further anger Iran, leading to more severe responses. >> Yes. >> Professor, what is your assessment of the impact on the Thai economy this time? During the initial Iran war, when oil prices rose, we saw a crisis in Thailand. Now, everything seems to be improving, but if everything erupts again, it means we are not out of danger yet? >> I think we have to keep watching. We can only hope that the eruption will lead to a compromise. Trump, I hope Trump will concede. >> Release the $6 billion, or perhaps even $12 billion. >> And some actions related to Iran's money, so that they can use the system to purchase goods with confidence. I think Iran will have to plan how to apply pressure to get what they want. It's not that the US will easily cancel it. If that happens, there will be an impact, but perhaps not to the extent of a crisis. However, I still believe that after the midterm elections in November, there is a chance of increased tension. Because then, Trump will not have to worry about the elections. >> Yes. >> Yes, Professor, besides praying, do we have any strategies to cope if the situation takes a turn for the worse? >> Here's the thing: I think the government is providing very little information to the public. This includes information about incoming oil. They should provide information, looking 30 to 60 days ahead, about how much oil is confirmed to arrive. But when this information is released, they must warn and strictly control speculation. This will be a bit difficult because last time, there were shadowy figures who speculated, and they still haven't been found. So, that's a bit problematic. Ideally, the government should provide full information and encourage the public to think and plan ahead, to prepare. Given the high uncertainty, in my opinion, everyone should consider scenarios. Scenario 1: how will our company prepare? Scenario 2: if this happens, how will our company prepare? There should be continuous adjustments to align with the evolving information. >> Yes, thank you very much, Professor. After the changes, we will surely invite you to analyze, especially next week, after the potentially risky days we discussed. Thank you very much, Professor. Thank you. Goodbye. >> Goodbye. >> Goodbye. Observations and analysis from Professor Chirachai Phuvananurak, former Minister of Finance, who has made observations based on the available information, particularly the pressure on Iran's imports and its economic difficulties, which might lead it to be pressured by America again through the MOU. Also, the disadvantage in terms of economic damage and the need to wait for the lifting of the freeze on funds, which might force Iran to regain leverage with America by closing or conducting military operations in the Strait of Hormuz again. Whether this will be more severe depends on whether America concedes. America also faces political pressure from the midterm elections. If both sides concede, they will return to negotiations and discussions. However, if they do not concede, clashes or confrontations might occur in important areas like the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices could skyrocket again. Furthermore, there is the variable of Israel, where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has requested a meeting with Trump. It is uncertain if there will be any special operations this time. These are the geopolitical risks that extend to energy and the global economy, which we must prepare to face. This live broadcast has ended. Thank you to everyone who has followed and watched. We will meet again in the next live broadcast. Guitar and the team bid farewell. Goodbye.