Transcription
Bitcoin is at 937 dollars at the moment I'm speaking to you, and we're going to take a step back because we have a lot of interesting things to say about Bitcoin. There's a configuration that's particularly interesting right now. We're practically back on our famous trendline that has rejected us since our ATH on October 6th. So we're going to try to look together at what's happening, take a step back because psychology is starting to play a preponderant role during these phases, these rebound phases after a massive bearish trend. And we're going to look a bit at what's going on, see what our indicators are telling us. I remind you that here we have a strategy that is a quantitative strategy. Our objective is to understand the market and apply a strategy worthy of an investment fund, that is to say a strategy based on risk management, on rational capital allocation to be able to invest serenely, coldly, in the long term and not be caught by our emotions, our biases, etc. So currently, we are back around 93,000 dollars. We had two good bullish candles yesterday and also today. We are back here at the resistance levels that we broke through upwards. And what's interesting to see is that we still seem to be in a really positive, really bullish dynamic. There are no reversal signals for the moment, there is a relatively strong trend. If we look a bit at what's happening with the order flow and on a slightly shorter term, we see that we have precisely here the rally that had so far been driven by spot markets. You see here, we are on spot markets, meaning it's real buying. And well, you see that since yesterday, and yesterday at the start of the day, we started to see demand here on derivative markets. So, we had a confluence between derivative contracts, derivative contracts here and spot markets here, which means we have massive demand and so we are liquidating all the people who had their shorts just above their price and in this case, just above the previous highs, sorry, and the previous high was right here at the 93,000 level. So that's it, we've broken through this area, feeding on all this liquidity. So, we had talked about the fact that we had liquidity to recover here. We've made a price structure that Bitcoin used to do quite a bit back then, you know, like Bart Simpson's hair, meaning hop and here, tick tick tick tick tick tick tick and we go back down. Okay? These are configurations that are quite classic and were very classic at the time. Well, you see that here this area is an area that we systematically pierce. Bearish candle, bullish candle, bearish candle, bullish candle. So well, you see here Bitcoin has a lot of strength. You see that the RSI has already gone into overbought territory on a 2-hour time scale, and we'll come back to that in this video. Here it's a momentum indicator, as is the case for many, many indicators, and there's a huge confusion on the subject, so we're going to debunk that together. Well, first, let's look a bit at what's happening on the daily. You see that currently we are back not very far from our bearish trendline. We talked about it with a price target that is currently around 95,000. Well, anyway, the trendline is bound to be broken, even if only by a wick. Okay? So to trap as many people as possible, whether bullish or bearish, we will very likely break this trendline. Okay? We have accumulated a lot of liquidity below, you know that many people trade trendlines, especially when they are obvious like this one. We already have three points, we are approaching the fourth. So, in fact, we have two types of traders. The somewhat beginner trader who will trade breakouts. So, in fact, he will simply place his order here to enter a position on the breakout of this trendline. He will place a stop order, let's say below the next, below the next support. If the next support, let's say it's this one, okay? Hop, he'll place it just below this previous support. And he will potentially target a 2:1 or a return to the next, to the next resistance which is here. Okay? So this is a bit of the trade for beginners who don't know technical analysis well. You know the Dunning-Kruger effect which tells us that potentially, well, people when they learn a field, they feel like they master that field very quickly and they say, "Well, trading is super simple, this or that field is super simple." And well, in fact, it's generally these people who, full of certainty, realize shortly after that it's actually much more complicated than that. So here you have beginners who are here, and conversely, you have short-sellers who will take short positions saying the trend is bearish. And it's true, the trend is bearish. So we will position ourselves here with short orders right here, place the stop order above the previous resistance levels and a price target at the support levels, for example, here. Okay? So, in fact, you see that we have an obvious move to make when it's like this. It's a move that will allow us to liquidate both sides. Okay? So it's simply a breakout. So we get everyone on board, okay, who bought the breakout. Okay, we also get everyone on board who sold here. We break the previous support level, so here with an upward movement. And then, we reverse downwards. And in that case, you have liquidated them first. So the shorts here, we went for their stop orders. So they are already out of the race. And then, you see that those who entered right here through this breakout. Well, then we liquidate them with a downward movement and thus we also get them out. Which means that in a single move, okay, just by doing this, so let's say just by doing this, we will liquidate a lot, a lot of people. Okay? Buyers and sellers. Okay? This can happen in both directions, it can happen in both directions, but obviously it's more interesting to do it on the break of this bearish trendline since we will bring in the longs. Okay? Hop, we bring them in, hop, we get them out, and hop, we rebuild like this. And there, it's great. You've gotten rid of the sellers, you've gotten rid of the buyers, and you can rebuild a trend by having liquidated as many people as possible on derivative contracts. Which means that exchanges feed on these kinds of movements. So, it's quite perfect for them. You see from a momentum perspective, precisely, that we have bullish momentum, okay? We have buyers, and that's visible on the RSI. We have two troughs with, you see, highs that are starting to become ascending. Okay? So we have a real W structure. This indicates that we have momentum, and this is where a big, big problem for the majority of people comes in. Okay? The majority of people take indicators as absolute values, whereas that makes no sense. Okay? Again, I'll tell you. If you take the RSI this way as an indicator, like, okay, below 30, I'm in an oversold indicator, and therefore, oversold means I'm smart, I buy the fear, I'll position myself at that moment. If you buy here, okay, when we cross 30, or even worse, when we are at 30, you buy here. Okay? This is a momentum indicator, it's a trend indicator. It tells us that the price dynamic is bearish, it's oversold. Okay? So here, during this entire phase, you see, we will make lower, lower, lower, lower prices each time until we reach our climax level. But it could last much longer. And in the past, well, I don't know if I have examples here recently, but what's certain is that on Bitcoin, we could stay for a long time in oversold phases, for example, here, you see, we started to be in oversold territory around here on this candle, then we stayed there for quite a long time, okay? for almost ten days. And what's important to know is that what matters to us is not entering an oversold state, but exiting it. Okay? Exactly the same for the bullish side, and we'll talk about that just after on the part of precisely oversold, if you want to reposition yourself, what you need to do little by little is to look at when we will leave this oversold zone. Okay? We entered this oversold zone, and you see that here, we started to leave the oversold zone. At that moment, it indicated to us that the sellers were, so to speak, out of breath. They had given their all on the bearish side, they maintained strong pressure, and well, little by little, they had more difficulty maintaining a bearish trend. And there, it's already a good signal, an interesting signal. And this is the case for many, many indicators. Okay? We will have, for example, indicators, even social indicators, okay? If we talk here about the fear and greed index. If we look at it a bit, you see that we can sometimes stay in bullish trends for a very long time. If you look here during this bull run phase of 2020, we started to be in extreme euphoria zones, 89% fear and greed index, that makes you dream, I know, because we haven't had it for quite a good few months. Well, 89 fear and greed index, at the time we were at 16,000 dollars. Okay, we had a fear and greed index that remained in levels between 80 and, well, between 90 and 100% until reaching a climax around 40,000 dollars. Whoever sold here thinking, "That's it, we're in a euphoria zone, I'm taking my profits, I'm getting out of the market," well, they got out with a missed gain of potentially 120% performance. Okay? So obviously, it's important to take this into account, but it's very important to see when the trend is weakening. When do we go from euphoria levels of 93? Ah, you see here 84, 78, 88, etc. Here, little by little, we are decoupling. Okay, this tells us that despite the extreme euphoria period we may have had, there is a stagnation of price and a euphoria level that is starting to decrease a bit. This is danger. Okay. Exactly the same when we are at the RSI level. If I show you a bit what's happening from the RSI perspective, right here on the overbought zones. Okay. Here, we enter an overbought zone at that moment. Okay? Should we sell? No. However, you see that here at that moment, we are leaving the overbought zones a bit. Here, it indicates a danger signal. Okay? We don't settle below. We immediately resume the overbought levels. And you see that when we truly leave the overbought zone on the RSI, we are here, you see, right here. And we find ourselves here at a time when it is indeed necessary to take profits. So, you have to accept selling the top. Okay? And this is again, this will be the parade with the fact that we are precisely in a bullish recovery. We will have all the people who said, "Yes, I told you to buy and so on." Well, we also said on the channel that we should start buying, positioning ourselves, and so on, but anyway, it doesn't matter, all of that is a matter of ego, or precisely of reassuring ourselves about what we did well, and so on, FOMO, and so on. All of that is a matter of emotions in reality. So it's useless to say, "I did better than others," or "I'm well-positioned," or "I sold, but this rebound is a rally of disbelief and anyway it's the last rebound before the bearish trend, and so on." It doesn't matter in reality, okay? What matters is to move forward rationally, and here, rationally, we see that we have a recovery of buying momentum. So, indeed, if we wait for all the confirmations to be positioned, again, we will be positioned far too late. And this is a big problem that I also see in the majority of content available on YouTube, which in my opinion misleads many beginners. Okay? Because I'll explain simply here, during these phases, there's a lot of panic. Okay? At the beginning of bearish phases, many people say, "It's okay, it's just a dip in a bullish trend, we need to reload, and so on." Then, as time goes by and losses accumulate, there comes a point where there's a psychological switch that makes the majority of people who were bullish, well, we move into a phase where the majority of people are bearish. Okay, this usually lasts for a while, and during these phases, we will have many people who, on every bearish movement, say, "Well, actually, I'm right to be bearish, and so on." So it will really validate their feeling of "I am bearish and I am right to be." Okay? And so you see that here, for example, we had in the same way a very powerful bearish trendline that was rejecting us for a long time because we had created it similarly from January 20th, the date of Donald Trump's inauguration. We retested it here on January 31st. We retested it here on February 21st. Here we got very close to it on March 2nd. Here too, we worked on it in March. End of March. Okay. And finally, we finally broke it at that point. When we break it, you see that at that point, I can tell you, for those who weren't there or don't remember very well, at that point, there was a lot of disbelief. Okay? Okay, it's the beginning of something. We go from 74,000 to 86,000. Okay? We gain 12,000 dollars in a straight line. This reminds us a bit of the current configuration, doesn't it? Currently, we were at 80,000 our low point, and we rose to 93,000. Okay. We gain 12,000 dollars in a straight line. Well, here, it's the same thing. Here, you see, in a straight line, we reach this area. And here, once again, although well-intentioned, people will tell you, "No, I'm waiting for confirmation. I'm waiting for confirmation because we're just breaking the trendline. It's probably a trap. We need to be careful. We could have a reversal. I'll buy back when we're in the discount zone between 79,000 and 76,000 dollars. I'll buy back then." Well, consequently, the market, of course, traps the majority of people, so it sends a very strong bullish impulse, and we find ourselves at the 94,000 dollar levels. At that point, we find ourselves under resistance and under the famous order block right here which had propelled us downwards. I'll take the liberty of going back a bit on these phases because it's extremely important to understand what happened, to understand precisely the mistakes of the past so as not to repeat them. Okay? So, doing a bit of pedagogy on past events is really essential for me. At that point, we were really under this big resistance. It's the same, you buy on support, you sell under resistance, it's not the time to buy. Okay? If there's a rejection, well, it's this famous rejection that will be the most powerful. It's not the time to buy. We could have precisely the famous hop and then here, buy back from that point on a return to this accumulation zone, and so on. Well, ultimately, the market sends an impulse, and at that point, we say, "Well, ultimately, yes, probably we are in a good zone to enter, and so on." Except that you missed the best part of the performance. Here you missed 40% of the rise in Bitcoin. You find yourself again under resistance right here. So potentially, it's not a good level to enter either, because you're entering after a 40% rise and under resistance. So it's not really ideal. Then you see that ultimately you are quite close to what will ultimately be our top. Okay? And when you start to re-enter, when you say, "That's it, it's the right time," and so on, you enter here, you're happy, you make a bit of performance, then the market reverses, and then here you say, "No, we're at a support level, it's not time to sell, we have a breakout, hop, we create a bullish trend," you say, "No, it's not time to sell." Finally, hop, you say, "Here we've broken the 100,000 dollar level." Yes, but it's not really the most interesting, the most important level because you have to wait for confirmation of that level right now. For example, we're waiting for confirmation of the bear market, which is 74,000. What do you do? That means you sell at 74,000. We were at 126,000. Okay? I mean, if you wanted to sell, you have to sell before, okay? When we sold, we sold at 110,000. Okay? In our investment circle, when we started to enter, we started to enter at 102,000 a bit. We also re-entered here at 87,000. We made gradual entries throughout this bearish phase to be able to regain the upper hand and to be able to resume the bullish trend at times when the risk-reward becomes interesting. Obviously, after such a significant bearish trend, okay? Well, obviously, we were going to have a rebound. I mean, many people predicted that. The question was, would the rebound happen here? Would it happen here, or would it happen here? Okay. So obviously, you shouldn't be too hasty or too greedy. And so, for that, you have to segment positions. And that's extremely important. Investing is not an on/off switch. Okay? You shouldn't just say, "I'm buying 100% of my stablecoin capital, I'm putting it into crypto," or "I'm selling and putting 100% of my crypto capital into stablecoins." No, you have to modulate. Okay? And that's the added value we have in our investment circle. It's precisely about making positions typical of investment fund risk management. When you hear an investment fund say they've priced in news, what does that mean? Okay? When we see, for example, that there's an 89.2% probability of a rate cut at the meeting next Wednesday by the US Federal Reserve. Well, that means we probably have good news coming within a week. We have a 90% probability of getting this good news. So what are we going to do? Well, we buy in anticipation. That means we say, well, if we have a rate cut, then we'll have ease in the monetary system. What does that mean? It means banks will be able to grant loans at lower rates, will be able to refinance at lower rates. And so that will help to lubricate the economy a bit. It means companies will be able to take out loans. If they take out loans, they'll be able to buy equipment, hire, and so on. So it will gradually lead to their development. They will thus generate profits. And these profits, you know, in the stock market, they are valued, what we call the P/E ratio, the price-to-earnings ratio, which allows us to say that a company will be valued X times its earnings. So if we increase the X, the value of the stock will rise. But if we increase the earnings, the value of the stock will also rise. And so we find ourselves in a situation where stocks should be able to rise due to the increase in rates here. So this is precisely the underlying reason for what's really happening, because when we say that a rate cut is positive for risk markets, yes, but it's through the mechanism I just explained. Okay? And so, this is important because it will tell us that if we have a 90% chance of this good news, well, I have every interest in starting to position myself. I won't wait for successive confirmations, and so on. You need to understand that trading, but also investing, is about moving forward in an environment where we have partial information. Okay? And partial information means, well, we're not sure we'll have a rate cut. We're not sure who Jerome Powell's replacement will be. We're not sure about Donald Trump's news on macroeconomics, and so on, about the fact that we will potentially have a significant tax cut. You see, Trump is starting to announce that we will have the end of income tax soon. Well, you see, all of this is uncertainty. But this is somewhat positive uncertainty. We say, well, if we estimate that there's a significant probability of such a movement, then we need to start pricing it in. And what does that mean, pricing it in? Okay? When you say, "Yes, this or that news is already priced in." What does that mean? It means that the most intelligent investment funds on this planet, and especially the most structured ones. It's not really a question of intelligence, it's a question of strategy and structure. That's why, on our end in the investment circle, we're not smarter than others. We just try to apply a strategy that is defined, reliable, and especially rational. Rational, okay? We are not subject to our emotions, we are not subject to our biases, okay? To a certain extent, at least, we try to be. So obviously, here, what we need to do to price it in is to say, if I estimate that I have a 90% probability of a rate cut, then I will allocate, for example, 90% of my capital to risk assets. Okay? And if this rate comes down, okay? If I go from 90% to 50%, I will lighten my positions little by little. Okay? All of this will always be in the direction of probabilities. Okay? We have several scenarios currently. You see that we will gradually arrive at this trendline. Currently, we have broken this support level. There is still a high probability that we will recover the zone we have been targeting for a long time, which is the 96,000 to 98,000 dollar zone. Okay? It is very likely that we will recover this zone. So at that point, there will be several scenarios. Okay? The scenario here, which is the first scenario, is to go for this zone. But there is also the scenario of rejection. You allocate probabilities to each scenario and then you decide yes or no. Do I decide to be positioned at X percent on my portfolio? Do I decide to lighten up? Do I decide to shift more towards Bitcoin, more towards altcoins, and so on? Okay? So this is obviously all this pedagogy that I'm trying to explain to you. Well, this is precisely what we will apply coldly and rationally in our investment circle. Okay? If we look a bit at our indicators, you see that here on the Bitcoin ETFs, you see that we had inflows yesterday. Well, it was offset by Ark Invest, which sold quite a bit, but you see that IBIT, BlackRock, bought a lot. Okay? Now, it's not yet significant. Be careful, on significant days, we could go up to almost 1 billion in purchases by BlackRock in a day. Okay? So, we're at 10% of the biggest days. It's not exceptional either. However, you see that it comes at a time when we had quite low volatility, quite low inflows and outflows on the ETFs. Here, you simply have the translation in histogram of what you had here in table format. Okay? So here, we see that we have strong buying pressure, strong selling pressure. It's calming down, okay? It's calming down with a structure inversion. We have a reversal in the structure, a reversal in momentum, we are at an interesting location. So obviously, when you have these three parameters: location, structure, momentum, it's a good time to become a buyer again. Okay? Now, obviously, it's not done all at once, it's not the time you buy 100%. It wasn't the time I bought 100% when we were at 102,000. It wasn't the time I bought, or rather, put all my chips in when we were at 87,000, or 86,000, and so on. It's obviously something you need to keep in mind, you need to structure and segment your positions. Okay? That's the only way to average your purchase price downwards and average your selling price upwards. Okay?
Okay. So let's go back to the news, and in fact, we've had very interesting news from Bank of America, which recommends its clients to add up to 4% of their portfolio to Bitcoin and crypto. So this is exceptional news because you had, in fact, two major institutions that were still anti-crypto. You had Bank of America, which is now changing its tune and saying, "Well, 4% is still enormous. 4%, I remind you that traditional finance operates with sums that don't make any crypto investors envious." Okay, we're talking about trillions. So obviously, here 4% represents truly astronomical sums. Okay? And we also have Vanguard, okay, which was also on the sidelines. You know that Vanguard is one of the main ETF issuers in the world, along with BlackRock and all its other competitors, who have now passed the Bitcoin ETF hurdle. Well, they are now authorizing spot trading of crypto and crypto ETFs on their platform. So this gives access to more than 50 million clients to ETFs that have already been accepted. So Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana. And again, this adds leverage for Bitcoin to find buyers. Again, and I'll never say it enough, the price of Bitcoin, like the price of any asset, only rises by the law of supply and demand. Liquidity, all of that only matters because it creates demand. Okay? To see Bank of America offering its clients a portion of their portfolio in Bitcoin. Whether it's Vanguard, whether it's BlackRock in the past, whether it's whales, whether it's anyone. Every time we have this kind of behavior, it creates buyers. Buyers then trigger purchases with new money. This new money is injected into the market and buys, creating an imbalance between buyers and sellers. And this imbalance will create this price increase. Okay? So this is obviously what needs to be managed. So this is good news. Now, it won't happen the day after tomorrow. It's rather positive in the medium term. It's not what determines our buying strategies. You should not buy at this moment, today, Wednesday, December 3rd, because you saw the news that Vanguard will allow its clients to trade spot crypto ETFs on its platform. It should not be the case with this Bank of America news either. If it is, obviously, it must be based on much more precise indications. Okay? For example, you see here that the funding rates here, the financing rates, what we were managing at that moment, right here, you see here the funding rate curve on Binance. Well, here what you see is that we have a slightly bearish trend for a long time. Now, we have bullish rebounds that correspond to the moments when we have large imbalance zones. Okay? So here on this bearish phase, here on this bearish phase, here too, hop, on this bullish phase, and so on. So we have imbalances, but you see that the structural trend is a decrease in funding since, well, precisely our bottom on November 21st. So this is very positive. It also means that from a derivative market perspective, from a derivative contract perspective, we especially have sellers who remain in position. And that's positive because precisely when we take a step back, we'll take a month of trading here on Binance perpetual contracts. You see that here we have quite dark colors, dark blue. This indicates that we have quite little liquidity between 84,000 and 93,000 dollars. We have liquidity below, between 80,000 and 67,000. But we have quite a bit of liquidity precisely above us. Okay? We have it here, which should bring us around 100,000 dollars, and then we have a wall of liquidity here at the 110,000 level, which could precisely mark our reversal zone. Okay? So reversal or consolidation, meaning that potentially we could go for this, okay? And at that point, well, either we build a range, okay? Like this, perhaps, or we just consolidate and go back up. In any case, what needs to be done is to manage, that's the principle of active management, it's to manage as we go. Okay? It could be a moment where we just turn around and go back down, okay? But anyway, we can't know that here. It's not a question of "I don't want to tell you what I think" or "I have several scenarios, but I don't want to explain the ins and outs of the different scenarios." No, here it's just that I don't know exactly what will happen because I will look at my indicators. If here we are, let's say, December 17th, and we are at 109,000 dollars, on December 17th, I will adjust based on the indicators that will be given to me. Currently, nothing could have predetermined me to say that my indicators would be positioned in such a way on Wednesday, December 3rd, when we are at 93,000 dollars. Currently, my indicators allow me to say whether I'd rather stay in position, whether I'd rather exit, whether I'd rather lighten up a bit, whether I'd rather strengthen my positions a bit, and so on. You see? So, well, this is obviously, this is obviously the object of your strategy. You need to define a strategy or adopt someone's strategy.
Hey, that's the principle of our investment circle. Once again, well, precisely that's our strategy, it's to be able to take all these indicators, to centralize them to precisely make them clear information that allows us to make decisions. You see that at the level of euphoria a little bit on altcoins, here we still have a global loss of euphoria and here you have a bit of a global and long-term picture of what I'm showing you as a table. Here, we have the funding rates, so the financing rates with the different assets. Okay? So here, we have one line equals one crypto. You see that here, we have the phases in red which are phases of euphoria, alright? The moments when fundings are very positive, hey. That was the case here back in March 2024. That was the case here back at the time of Donald Trump's election between his election and his inauguration between well the months of November and January 2025, well November 2024 and January 2025. And you see that there, we are in phases of extreme fear, phases of fear that we hadn't reached since the beginning of the cycle, alright? Phases of fear that are well generalized across all altcoins. We had semblances of similar phases around here at the bottom in August-September 2024. We also had these phases during the Silicon Valley Bank bankruptcy phase around August, September 2023. So here, these are phases we've had, but you see that we've never had so much concentrated fear on altcoins because here, we have a phenomenon that is a bit different, it's that Bitcoin has largely performed and for many that means that there will simply never be any altcoins. In fact, it calls into question the very existence of these altcoins. It's positive because people haven't understood that well altcoins are nothing more than startups. Alright? They are startups in the crypto field, but they remain startups. So in fact, they are extremely correlated to an American index called the Russell 2000, alright? Which you can find right here on TradingView. If you look at the Russell 2000, well currently, it is under resistance. Here, the resistance of 2450 points. You had it here this resistance which blocked the price in November 2021 following precisely well the resurgence of inflation and so on. Here in December 2024, following Donald Trump's election, we had a new drop uh following well Donald Trump's election which led the American Federal Reserve on all of this in fact which led the American Federal Reserve to fear its tariffs and therefore to stop the rate of rate cuts. And once again, well the least liquid assets which are well startups, altcoins and so on, they benefit enormously from the influx of liquidity because well when you only have 100 dollars in savings, hey, if you meet a friend who tells you "I only have 100 dollars to invest", you won't tell him "Bet it all on this little crypto". you'll tell him "Well, maybe bet it all on the MSCI World, bet it all on S&P 500 ETFs", I don't know, assets that are rather well capitalized and especially things that have less risk of capital loss. Alright? So obviously, it will only be when you have capital of well I don't know, if you have someone who tells you "I have a million dollars to invest", you'll tell him "Okay, well, you can invest 900,000 dollars in such a way and then the remaining 100,000, put them in altcoins because if it performs, you'll make enormous performance. So in fact, it's this pool of liquidity, you have to reach it and to reach it, you need a lot of buyers. And to have a lot of buyers, generally, you need a lot of liquidity. And liquidity often comes from rate cuts. Alright? So often, that doesn't mean always, but it often comes from rate cuts. That's also why we look so much at rate cuts. So here, to think that there will never be any more altcoins, it's like thinking that there will never be any more seasons in which American small caps will perform. You see that we have quite a bit of pullback on this Russell 2000 index. We have news, we have data going back to 1987. So that's quite a few years and you see that here, over these 40 years of trading, we still have a trend that is beautiful and more or less a parabola. Alright? So here we obviously have phases of range, phases of consolidation, phases of expansion, phases of correction and so on. Here we are under resistance so we've come a long way here obviously between well the bottom of September 2022 which roughly corresponds to our bottom in the crypto part. You see that during this bull run phase of the crypto part, well in fact we had a bull run on stocks, it's on American small caps. Now, we might have the impression that well we are in our little crypto world and so on and that well the entire crypto part is very different from the American small cap part. If you think, I don't know, about a logistics company in the US that has its clients in the US and so on and is listed on the Russell 2000, well you say "It has nothing to do with my little crypto, with my meme coin and so on." Even if in fact, it has a connection which is liquidity, which is that buyers position themselves mainly on this type of asset when they have money. Alright? And so this money, it comes well here, it came from the fact that the Biden administration at the time had precisely increased its pace, had taken a somewhat somewhat dovish position of monetary easing. Alright. And so that was seen at that time when we had precisely a monetary easing policy. Then, hop, a hawkish policy. Finally, we stop cutting rates. We came back to our support zone. So, we had a huge correction on American small caps. Huge correction that we experienced in altcoins, alright? That we experienced during all these months from December to April until the Liberation Day period and so on in the United States. Well, you see that during this period, we suffered enormously on altcoins and that was the case for American small caps. We are back to our famous highs and you see that in the past, well it's precisely the breaks of these major resistances that allow us to trigger really interesting phases of expansion and bull run phases. That was the case between November 2016 and August 2018. I remind you for those who were there, hey, I was there in the crypto sector at that time. Well obviously at that time, you remember that we had exceptional performance on altcoins. Exceptional, alright? Here, same between November 2020, October 2020 and this period which was April 2021. Alright? We had enormous performance which is bull run performance but we didn't have altcoins before, alright? Because altcoins started around that time. In reality, they really started. We really had accessibility to altcoins from 2016-2017. Here between, well, you see the period from October 2012 to January 2014, we had a bull run on Bitcoin but we also had at that time a bull run on small American stocks. And once again, you see, we had a structure with a resistance, a resistance, a resistance. we break that, we have a bull run and so it seems that we finally only have three bull runs in crypto history. But in reality, this is the crypto history curve. Alright? If Bitcoin and cryptos had existed back in the 90s, okay, or in the 2000s, well here, we would very certainly have had a bull run between September 2003 and June 2007. Alright? And here, what does that tell us? It tells us that at that time, we are under resistance and therefore that we are on the verge of breaking through this resistance and starting again on a bull run phase that could take us much higher in the US Small Cap market and therefore in the crypto market and altcoins in particular. Alright? So I'll stop there for this video. I hope you enjoyed it. We've done a little educational recap for those who want to go a bit further, especially well, the application of all this pedagogy, the entire strategy part. Don't hesitate to join us in the investment circle. You receive every time you sign up, even for just one month, you receive two training courses. A first training course in technical analysis, alright? which will really allow you to understand well what we've talked about, Fibonacci retracements, order flow, funding rates, open interest, all these things, you will learn them in this training. We really start from zero, from creating an account on TradingView. So if you're a beginner and so on, I know some of you are. Don't be afraid, we're going back to the basics anyway. And the second part is a more strategic part, alright? Here, we will develop the part on how to create a balanced portfolio, how to analyze cryptos on-chain, how well how we will place orders on an exchange, alright? the difference between limit orders, market orders, well all of that in the same logic. Understand my strategy, understand how to apply it, try to progress in the areas of quantitative analysis, so graphical analysis, but also all technical indicators, on-chain analysis and so on. You see here for example, I haven't talked about it, I don't really have time, but you see that here we have interesting news. We have exchanges showing that we have a descending curve, that means that bitcoins are leaving the exchange platforms. So that's positive again in a buyer and seller logic. It means that if this curve goes down, we have fewer bitcoins available for sale. So for equivalent buying pressure, we will have as much as we will have less selling against equivalent buying pressure. And therefore, we will have a price increase. Okay? Well, these are things we cover. If you have questions, if it's not clear enough yet, if you don't know if it can bring you something, if you still have doubts, you can simply discuss it with me. I mean, there's no obligation to buy or anything. Here, as a reminder, well, I am certified by the AMF. I am not a financial investment advisor, which means I cannot give you recommendations on your portfolio, personalized recommendations. However, I can help you with the construction, the structuring of your portfolio, answer your questions in a somewhat occasional and pedagogical way. Well, you have doubts about this or that crypto, you have doubts about this or that structure, you have doubts about your portfolio, well don't hesitate, I can at least look at it and then give you a little overview of my point of view on the subject. Alright? So I hope you liked this video. Thank you very much, hey. You are a very very engaged community, very very present and it shows whether in the comments but also in our stats and so on. So thank you very much for that and I wish you a good week. Well, thank you.