Week 9 Fantasy Football QB & TE Rankings (Top 26)

Week nine, quarterback and tight end rankings. We always use this as a preview episode. Get a little loose with things on top of it. And Hayden, I'll start off with a statement. I think we need to savor this moment. We need to savor in 10 years we'll look back and say, man, those Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen games were something special. And that's where we kick things off with Patrick Mahomes as your quarterback one, Josh Allen as your quarterback two. This one in the 425 slate. Two and a half point favorites. Actually down to one and a half point favorites. The Chiefs are at this point with both teams projected to score over 25 points.

I think this matchup is a little bit different than what it was in previous iterations because the Buffalo Bills defense is just not what it was back when these two teams I thought were really even. Uh Ed Oliver, their defensive tackle star, uh he's not going to play. Daquin Jones, uh he's also not going to play. Their secondary starting to get some pieces back. Matt Milano is starting to get back into form, but just in general, the safety play, the defensive tackle play has just not been nearly as good this year as it was in previous uh iterations. And on top of it with Patrick Mahomes, this offense just feels so fast. Like there was like three or four years in a row where the offense did not feel fast. It's not just Rasheed Rice coming back, Xavier Worthy was an added element uh versus a couple seasons ago. Even their rotational players, Hollywood Brown being healthy, Taekwon Thornton, and then I'll even say Travis Kelce wins a a race this year versus Travis Kelce last year on top of that. So, I think it's going to be a high-scoring affair here. I don't think the Chiefs defense is also as good, but I think on that side of the ball, I'm just worried about the speed of the two teams, Chiefs offense versus Bills defense. Bill's defense is slow and Andy Reid can weaponize his own speed, whether that be horizontal stuff with Xavier Worthy and Bashard Smith. Some vertical stuff if they want to get a single play to Tyler Thornton, Taekwon Thornton I should say, as they previously have. And then what Pat Mahomes did so well early on this season was run the football. It was, you know, less passing production on top of it. And then now obviously when Worthy gets back from his shoulder, Rice back from suspension, it's all been passing production. He has three plus passing touchdowns in three straight games. But let's not forget that in these pivotal moments in his past, Mahomes runs. He scrambles and the Bills have allowed the most rushing yards per game to quarterbacks at 31.1 across the league. So, he's going to be able to do both, I feel like, against this Bills defense.

>> Yep. And yeah, like you said, that's made Patrick Mahomes the top fantasy quarterback. So, I do have Patrick Mahomes ranked one spot ahead of Josh Allen, but both of these guys are the best remaining options by far. Pickum lobby agrees that it's basically at 22.5 and 22.7 fantasy points. Everybody else is like at 20 flat. So, like these are the elite quarterbacks as we know it. Um, on the Bill side of the ball, the they have issues still in the receiving group. And I think the name to watch for me this week is actually Dalton Kincaid and his box scores have been very kind of up and down just in general. Uh he did not play a full game this last game, but he's fully practicing and I was looking at it. He's actually second in fantasy points per route. He just doesn't run that many routes because he's a part-time player. But also because the Bills offense has been very very balanced and run-heavy. I do think that their safety play, their nickel corner play in general, uh, has kind of fallen apart and they put Trent McDuffie on on the outside and I do think working over the middle of the field with somebody like Dalton Kincaid, who I think's been a little bit better of a receiver this year yards after the catch-wise. Um, that's one of the options and obviously Khalil Shakir. So, I'm expecting a lot of just stuff over the middle. The Bills really don't threaten deep and I think that's where the Chiefs defense has been good at. But, I think working over the middle, dinks and dunks, I think that's going to be how the Bills are going to try to move the ball. I don't mean to just talk about the running elements that both of these quarterbacks bring to the table because obviously they're both outstanding passers on top of it, but Josh Allen, this is pretty nutty from the worksheet, has averaged 10.4 runs per game against the Chiefs with double-digit rushing attempts in seven straight matchups. Double digit rushing attempts. Uh, and the Chiefs just behind the Bills, or I should say ahead of them, uh, 30th in rushing yards per game allowed to quarterbacks at 27 right now. What if, Hayden, we had a peak Keon Coleman first week game, he does absolutely nothing for seven weeks, and then again, he pops his head out there and says, "Oh yeah, this is my Gabe Davis moment."

>> Yeah. And I have that one outstanding performance that I have about four of those every single season. The thing is they kind of have to have that, right? It's either a Khalil Shakir broken tackle like you're saying, Dalton Kincaid down the field, maybe James Cook. He's not catching any passes this season, but his rushing performances has been fantastic. They have no one else. And when they have no one else, Keon Coleman, in order for them to, I think, beat one of the elite teams, has to do something elite or even fluky, some might say. And if that's the case in this one, to me, the spotlight is on him to make a difference.

>> Yeah. And I think for the ground game, I would be pretty surprised if Keon Coleman has the big game here just because he's going to be on the outside facing Trent McDuffie and I just don't think he's been good enough to kind of beat those. The James Cook part of this is also a huge deal obviously. But the Chiefs are just 22nd in rushing EPA uh right now and their success rates right in that same area as well. So this is an opportunity where I think how the Bills have wanted to play football this year on offense. It's super balanced. They're like bottom five in neutral pass rate. They've been that the entire season. Win with explosives on the ground. They have two guys to do it with. Uh, like you mentioned, Josh Allen obviously going to be a part of that. Um, but yeah, the Chiefs defense, I know I was just kind of ragging on the the the Bills defense. The Chiefs defense is no longer that juggernaut unit. I think they're closer to like the eighth best defense in the NFL. Um, but yeah, very familiar offenses and defenses against each other. If I just had a lean here, I I kind of just like the higher. I think that the Bills are just too expensive points. I know, but this Chiefs uh I don't think the Bills are ever really pushed on offense. This is a game where I think they will be. And I think this Chiefs offense is looking really, really good on tape, and I think that we're just going to be in for one of those games.

>> 52 and a half total. It is right now. Okay, let's go to your quarterback three. That is Justin Herbert at the Tennessee Titans. I mean, simple question here. Uh the Chargers are 28th in red zone touchdown success rate this season, which is pretty nutty for how good they've looked on offense this year. Uh this is one of those games that it could easily be at like 75% like be number one in week nine of the season. They are projected for 26 and a half points on the road. They are nine and a half point favorites against this Titans defense.

>> Does this start everybody week um including Justin Herbert? I thought you were going to ask me um name a Titans defensive player that's active challenge and

>> because that would be a struggle.

>> Yeah, Simmons hasn't practiced this week. Arden Key hasn't practiced this week. Even with players like Chig Qwano is on the injury report. Calvin Ridley's on the injury part on the other side of the ball. They just traded away another one of their corners. L'Jarius Sneed their top corner on the outside. He's on injured reserve. It is I mean there's just nobody on the roster right now.

>> DeAndre Sweat playing. I think he might be the only one. Yes, he was uh he was in the news recently for a pretty funny quote that he had talking about Justin Herbert. So, um yeah, this is should be a blowout unless the Chargers do some Chargery thing, but I think that this team has too many answers. We talked about their four wide now that they have Quentin Johnston working as like a Darren Waller in the slot. I have no idea how the Titans defense, which has been problematic, and they're down coaches on the other side of the ball. I I question how this one's even going to get close. I'm surprised that it's only a nine and a half point spread in this one. The Joe Alt and Trey Pipkins both being back for Justin Herbert uh has made an impact. And then I'll also note just watching Herbert this year, it seems like they're telling him to get out of the pocket a little bit more. That sometimes means scrambles. That also means just like throwing the ball to Keenan Allen for first downs out of structure too. So, I think any of these receivers/Quentin Johnston is going to have a big game. And then even Kamari Vidal in the ground game has been clicking a little bit more now that they have a more functional offensive line.

Drake May is your quarterback four. This is against the Atlanta Falcons. So far this season, he has two weeks of quarterback two overall, one week of quarterback four overall. What if this is the week at home against this Falcons defense that does not travel well uh and is just super hot and cold? uh if this is the one that he scores as the number one quarterback. I mean, Tua just threw four touchdowns against this Falcons defense and that was when they were at home. I understand that they're averaging like 205 passing yards per game. I think it's actually might be the highest that they've allowed so far this season. But to me, that just speaks to one them turning the football over inside their own territory, their run defense not being as good. And like here in this one, they blitz at a ludicrously high rate and Drake May leads the league in completion rate against the blitz at 76.6%. Uh I I'm expecting Drake May to have an incredible game and kind of shocking to me it's only a five and a half point spread right now.

>> Yeah, we talk about these defenses that are very chaotic and that's what the Falcons defense is, but Drake May has just handled everything so well and Josh McDaniels has been around the league forever. So I'm not like that concerned about all the wild card stuff that the Falcons uh bring to the table. It's I'm guessing Rhamondre Stevenson with that toe injury is not going to play. So now you're going to have like more of just a personnel grouping that makes you just want to pass the ball more, get out to the perimeters, win with speed, win with these downfield shots. Uh K.J. Osborn against A.J. Terrell and with Jessie Bates over the top, that's a challenging uh matchup, but I think all the rest of it, Divine Diabate over the middle, he's out for the Falcons. I think crossing routes, uh maybe Hunter Henry this week, maybe it's a big Stefon Diggs week, maybe it's Trevon Diggs actually like on big wheel routes. I can see double moves and stuff fun stuff like that out there. But the Patriots, aside from like being literally dead last and running the ball, their offense is still really good. And that's just because Drake May is playing like an MVP candidate.

>> I mean, Miles Garrett got five sacks last week and it didn't even matter.

>> I know. Didn't phase him.

>> You know, >> if the Falcons get two or three sacks and have like a nice pressure rate, it probably still doesn't matter. Uh Drake May has more touchdowns on 20 plus yard passes than he does incompletions on 20 plus yard passes this season.

>> That's insane. Yeah, that's insane. Hopefully the regression doesn't fully hit all in in one game and like that's how you you can have like an upset happen here, but um yeah, right now they're projected for for 25 points. That makes sense to me.

Quarterback five currently is Kyler Murray at the Dallas Cowboys. Let's have a conversation here because >> it certainly seems like Jonathan Gannon and Drew Petzing might be having a conversation behind closed doors. Just to open the timeline up for everyone, it's basically been a month since Kyler Murray injured uh was injured on the field. Okay, we know he's missed a couple of games. They're coming out of the bye-week. He got in a limited practice and was seen throwing with the starters out there. At the same time, if you dig into the practice clips, Jacoby Brissett is the one getting the first reps. than Kyler Murray is coming in and getting the, you know, also reps with the starters. So, he's getting more work than he has in the past. However, if you also dig into the timeline, this is a Monday night football game. Yesterday, Kyler was supposed to speak to the media and instead the Cardinals tell local uh beat writers and such that, hey, a quarterback is going to be speaking to you later on in the week. So reading between all of these lines, Hayden, are you certain that Kyler Murray is going to be the starter here in week nine?

>> Completely uncertain um about that. And then that would be is this a soft benching or is this just the injury? It's a mid-foot sprain, which is like I think a somewhat serious injury, but when asked Jonathan uh Gannon was asked if he's preparing for Kyler Murray to start, he said, "Yeah, but based off the first practice, he just might not be ready to go or maybe they don't want to rush Kyler Murray back because Jacoby Brissett has been playing well." Either way, I do not know if he's going to be playing on Monday Night Football. Uh the team total is still really high at 25 and a half. So, there hasn't been like some like huge market adjustment. Now, that brings you to what you want to say. Should there be a big market adjustment going from Kyler Murray and Jacoby Brissett. So, we'll find out a lot more. I I would be very surprised if we don't know who the quarterback is uh before Sunday morning. But this is one where if you want to go conspiracy uh corner uh I will listen to uh some of that.

>> Yeah. I mean my read on this is they can say that Kyler's injury is lingering and play Jacoby Brissett to continue to see if his hot streak continues without saying oh we benched Kyler Murray.

>> This has happened before.

>> Correct. Uh now who knows on a personal level because these guys know how injured someone is. And even Marvin Harrison was asked who the starting quarterback is and he says, "I don't know." Um,

>> at the same time, it can also be Jonathan Gannon playing with people like me >> who read into this stuff a bit too much.

>> I mean, with that said, >> some very diehard and great people at their job that cover the Cardinals even looked into the warm-up snaps and Jacoby was throwing to Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson and uh Kyler Murray was throwing to like the most random dudes on the end of the roster. So again, this is out of a bye-week when it's been a month month since his mid-foot sprain and Jacoby Brissett has played really well, I thought, against the Green Bay Packers. Seven of 14 on third downs, stood very tall against pressure. And look, this Cardinals team has to win. And so based on what they saw these last two weeks with Jacoby Brissett playing against better defenses and performing admirably against arguably one of the worst, if not the worst pass defense out there in the Dallas Cowboys. To me, I would have trust in him getting the football to our best players, namely Trey McBride.

>> Yeah. And this is an opportunity where you're just going to pass the ball like crazy against Dallas. They're dead last and and passing EPA by a mile. It's like their defense is equivalent to like the Chiefs offense, which is tough to do because they haven't even played like some like daunting schedule for the most part. Everyone gets home against them. So, if Kyler Murray could play, I would still view him as a quarterback one. If Jacoby Brissett can play, I think that he would be like an upside quarterback two streamer like right in the category next to like guys like Jordan Love and Jared Goff and Sam Darnold and kind of that tiered quarterback because the team total is so high and they're not going to run the ball like that effectively. Um, so it's going to be a lot of passes through the air. Uh, on top of that, like Donovan Wilson, a safety, hasn't practiced for the Cowboys. Trevon Diggs is on injured reserve. Jack Sanborn, that linebacker that we've kind of picked on the show, he's not practicing as well. So there's they've got a lot of issues uh on defense, like even more so than even a couple weeks ago right now. Um so it's a great spot for whoever starts. Um and yeah, it would be it would be a pretty big deal if they flat out said Kyler Murray is benched. So I think that if if even if they are leaning that, it will just they will say it's the mid-foot sprain, which I correct.

>> I would guess it's probably it's probably injury related. But

>> uh and I I could have a total misread on this. That's just how I'm viewing it right now on on Friday. And like you said, the Cowboys are allowing a league high 20.4 passing points per game. If you're in Superflex, start Jacoby as your quarterback, too. It's really that simple.

>> If he starts, okay, Matthew Stafford is your quarterback six. Um, this is against the New Orleans Saints. Typically, pure pocket passers who don't offer any rushing upside don't rank in the top six. And I guess seven because we have Lamar Jackson from Thursday Night Football that we're not talking about here. Uh but why does Stafford deserve that with this total just being slightly under 29 points?

>> Yeah. Uh they're projected for 29 points, the most uh of the remaining teams here. Uh the Saints defense has has like showed some fight, but they just do not have enough star players and they've got rid of a lot of their talent the last couple off seasons and particularly the last uh uh calendar year with the Marshon Lattimore trade and Paulson Adebo gone. So yeah, they're just missing bodies. They have nobody to defend either of these uh wide receivers. Puka Nacua is expected back uh for this one. He says he feels good, ready to go. Um and this team in the last month has a 70% neutral pass rate. So they drop back like crazy. They throw the ball in the red area like crazy. There's a reason why Davante Adams has four more targets inside the 10 yard line than anybody else in the NFL. Keep in mind, he's already played on his bye. So Matthew Stafford's are one of these guys where his passing touchdown rate is going to be at the very top of the NFL this season for as long as he stays healthy. And I've not seen any play where I thought his back has made an impact at all.

>> Totally with you. And he took some sacks earlier in the season and just bounced back and is totally fine. There we go. Dak Prescott is your quarterback seven on the week. This is on the opposite end of that Arizona Cardinals discussion. Again, this is Monday Night Football. Um, they are at home in home games this season. He's finished as the quarterback six, quarterback one, and quarterback eight. And this Cardinals pass rushing unit has been quite poor. I mean, they're 25th in pressure rate. They are finally getting their first round pick in Will Anderson Jr. out there, but I don't think that's going to drastically change anything.

>> Yeah, I was going to mention the the Cardinals defensive players like Garrett Wilson or Garrett Williams has been on injured reserve. He's kind of like their third safety corner type. uh he's at least limited in practice. And then like you said, Will Anderson calf injury, he's limited in practice. B.J. Ojulari also limited to. So, we'll know about the final injury report. Those guys like kind of move the needle like in general, but for the most part, this is a good uh matchup for the Cowboys at home. They're projected for 28 points u which is fourth highest uh on the slate. Supposed to be a close game. I I can see uh the Cardinals showing a lot of fight on the other side of the ball here. Um, but yeah, in general, they just can't rush the passer. And now that the Cowboys have most of their offensive line back now, uh, they're in a good spot. It's hard to defend when you have Pipkins plus CeeDee Lamb and then Jake Ferguson working underneath. This team's really tough to beat. Um, so, uh, it sounds like we're going to get Cooper Beebe back, their center full participant off of injury. So, that would be their starting five back, ready to go. So, I mean, good luck trying to fade the Cowboys right now.

>> Yeah. And this Cardinals defense are playing zone coverage on 75% of their snaps. Dak is completing nearly 78% of his snaps with 10 touchdowns and one interception against zone coverage. So Nick Sirianni has done some really cool things. He throws some funky looks at opposing quarterbacks.

>> Guess what? Dak Prescott has seen them all and especially when facing against, you know, the >> Philadelphia Eagles, John Gannon coming from that, so on and so forth. So, uh, this is just to me another one of the air it out moments for Dak Prescott when the total for this game is also at 53 and a half,

>> which I believe is the highest of the weekend.

>> Yeah,

>> there's a bunch of crazy ones. Yeah, 53 and a halfs. We have 52 and a halfs, 51s, 50 and a halfs. Like, that's it's going to be some some fun shootouts.

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Next up, Jayden Daniels. We hope as the quarterback eight against the Seattle Seahawks. I mean, Seahawks are, and I'll say this, only three-point favorites in this game. You couldn't really have more of a different vibe state between them. Uh,

>> some Commanders fans might be upset based on how the team has looked this year. I would say that last season was such a shock that you should just kind of feel good about what happened and say you're going to have some growing pains, especially with how old this roster is and it looks slow, especially on defense. We'll talk about Sam Darnold a bit later, but then on offense, you know, the Terry McLaurin, he's once again out. Jahan Dotson is probably out for this game after going in and out of the last one. And then Jayden Daniels is super banged up and so he's taking some real negative plays. I mean again, yeah, the worksheet pointed out that 19% of his drop backs have lost one EPA or worse, which ranks 27th in the league. And he's just not balancing them out with the extravagant, awesome, downfield, explosive plays like he was last year.

>> Yeah, this downfield threat Terry McLaurin has just not played like Terry McLaurin. He's not going to play this week and I think he's a candidate for injured reserve. We'll see about that with his quad injury and then Jayden Daniels because his legs have been so banged up, he's not hitting those 40-yard rushing plays uh out of structure, sometimes in structure, too. So, the explosives are not there. Um, Laremy Tunsil hamstring injury went DNP limited to start the week. Uh that's not going to help your pressure numbers as well. And then I I think for the other side of the ball, the Seahawks defensive line's like always been really good, but they've also been dealing with injuries in the secondary early on the season. And they drafted a second rounder, Devon Witherspoon, who I think was kind of a boom or bust safety project, but a great athlete. He's gone to the right uh coordinator and scheme here. And he's being a chess piece. D.J. Reed's back and ready to go here. And we've seen this defense in second half of seasons kind of experiment early on and in the second half of seasons go crazy. We've seen that with the Ravens before with Mike Macdonald. And now going back to last year, the like last couple months of the season for the Seahawks, you're like, whoa, this team's getting really good. I can see this team going like everyone knows they're the best defense right now, but they might be just like a tier above everybody else down the stretch. So this is a pretty aggressive ranking for Jayden Daniels. to like show how much like I value him. For him to even be in like the low end quarterback one discussion right now is pretty incredible.

>> And at the same time for Seattle, this isn't like a 1:00 game near Washington. It's a Sunday night game. So you don't have to adjust your clocks as much here. Uh Jayden though in healthy games this year only has one top 12 scoring week. So I don't know. I mean I can totally see why he belongs here. He obviously did it plenty of times last season. It just feels not just one thing going wrong, but multiple things going wrong here for the Commanders. And at the same time,

>> I think Seattle could kind of bleed this clock a lot, too. Like, yeah, make it a really quick game.

>> Yeah, it really just comes down to how healthy is Jayden Daniels because the team's only projected for 22 and a half points, which is lower than uh the average this week. So, if he's not running like he usually does with the hamstring injury, then um we're going to be facing an uphill battle. By the way though, for pick and lobby, he was up at 21 points, which is higher than like the previous like five quarterbacks that we've talked about. So, okay, I've got him ranked lower than our engineers.

Daniel Jones, uh, against the Pittsburgh Steelers is your quarterback nine. Uh, Steelers are allowing 18 passing points per game, 31st, only ahead of the Dallas Cowboys. They're allowing 11 yards per completion. Justin Fields was a top 12 score against this defense. So was Carson Wentz. So was Joe Flacco. Uh I mean how Shane Steichen is carving up teams out there and especially bad defenses. This should be an awesome Daniel Jones week even if it is on the road.

Let's flip him and Jayden Daniels. Agree with your entire intro there. This team is projected for uh 27 points and on a per drive basis, this is like as good of a team as the freaking like 2007 Patriots. So I believe in it. I think that the Steelers have a lot of issues. We've talked about it. I think on pretty much every recap show, even when the Steelers are winning games, we're like, have you seen that defense how slow they feel and they're not rushing the passer all that well and there's coverage busts and they're not doing anything schematically that's making you like nervous about anything? They're kind of just like hanging out there. I don't know. This feels like an option for the the Colts to just like really pound the ball in the second half, but there's kind of this like narrative brewing that this Colts team is like just really run-heavy. In the first half of games, they're one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league and it really works. And then you get Jonathan Taylor to close out games and he's ripping off 80-yard touchdowns. I This is one of these teams where the Colts aren't like blazing fast, but they're so sound and they get the ball to to space so quickly that they actually like operate pretty quickly. And that makes me nervous against the Steelers, who I just think are like very old and washed. Pass to lead, then you run to win. I mean, the Colts have created the most yards on first downs in the NFL this season. So they create explosives on first downs, too, with the running game, but especially the passing game. I mean, when you don't know what's coming at you, when the full playbook is available on first and 10, then Shane Steichen is just destroying defenses along with Daniel Jones. I we give Daniel Jones a lot of credit every single stat. So, don't don't make it seem like

>> I don't want to be interpreted that I'm just giving all the credit here. Uh, okay.

Jackson Dart is your quarterback 10. This is against the San Francisco 49ers. Um, they are two and a half point underdogs here at home in this game, but a nice total of 23. 49ers have one of the worst pressure rates of any team in the NFL. And as we've talked about it, the Giants have two of the best tackles at their respective positions. Yep. With Andrew Thomas and although Germaine Ifedi has missed some practice this week, he has told the local media that he is going to play.

>> Bryce Huff on the other side of the ball has not practiced yet with that hamstring injury. So it's not just the superstars that like the next level players. Bryce Huff who was stepping up for a week or two without Bosa, he's probably not going to play here. So, Jackson Dart, what has he been really good at after the first read? Is he was only trailing Patrick Mahomes last time I looked it up on first downs uh per uh play after the first read. So, out of structure, you're getting the scramble drill stuff, but also you're getting like downfield shots. We've seen that in every single game. And this is, I think, an opportunity where he's going to have time to create downfield shots. And the linebacker play isn't nearly as good because they're missing Fred Warner. Um and Darius Slayton, I think, is going to be a better element. Like it sounds crazy. He's not some superstar player, but Lil Jordan Humphrey went two weeks uh as a full-time player without getting a single target. So there's there's an opportunity for, you know, uh some more explosives here with Jackson Dart.

>> We're going to bring Lil Jordan on as our third chair at some point at that rate.

>> Yeah. I mean, this 49ers defense just got torn apart by the Houston Texans in their passing game. Yeah.

>> And there had been questions in six other games for that Texans passing attack, basically. Uh, now do I think the Giants right now have Jayden Higgins, Jaylen Hyatt, and Xavier Hutchinson? No. Do they have maybe some Braxton Berrios? Possibly. But even Braxton Berrios was like breaking a bunch of tackles uh against this 49ers unit. So, yeah, this is a nice one. Obviously, the rest of the season is just all about Jackson Dart looking good and playing good football. Uh that is the entire mission statement for Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka for the remaining nine or so games.

>> and Brian Daboll can go to ownership and just play that Kyle Shanahan clip about where he was talking about Jackson. Did you see that? He was this guy's >> pretty damn good. So if Kyle Shanahan believes it. Now obviously these coaches always talk up opposing players but what he was saying specifically like the out of structure plays and like the aggressiveness down the field um that's was the case at Ole Miss and that's been absolutely the case uh in the league.

Caleb Williams is your quarterback 11. Four passing touchdowns over his last four games. Uh that could have been five if he and DJ Moore were on the same page in the final snap last week. Um and that's despite facing the Raiders, the Saints, and the Commanders defenses. Now, we know in a couple of those games, like the Saints and the Commanders, if my mind is correct here, the running game really got back on track.

>> Yes.

>> But that said, Ben Johnson is hired. He beats up on the worst defenses in the NFL. This is one of those matchups. I understand it's on the road. I understand that in some games this season, Caleb has not played that great. For a large majority of last week, he played above average to good football. So again, we highlighted some stats versus film quotes this week of he and Ben maybe not being on the same page at all times. This should be the one with how terrible, utterly awful this Bengals defense has played that the Bears should just dominate them. And it's kind of shocking to me that it's only a two and a half point spread here.

>> Yeah, I think that's totally totally fair. Uh in terms of the team total, just to put it into perspective, the Chiefs are projected for 27 points. The Bears are at 26 and three-quarters points. They're projected for more points than the Chargers, than the Bills and the Patriots. and all these other teams, too. So, this is like a week where we should be looking to play as many Bears as we can. The injury report is pretty lengthy. They they're also kind of like pretty lenient with their injury reports. Like D'Andre Swift hasn't practiced yet, but he's also hasn't practiced much this entire season. Rome Odunze, DJ Moore both been DNP limited. I'm expecting both of them to play. Luther Burden will not play because of concussion protocol. Uh and then Cole Kmet limited with a back injury, too. So, uh it's really just going to depend on exactly which skilled guys they have out there. But like you said, it's been a lot of weeks uh this season where Caleb's like down to down play has been all right, but it's just been the three like really just kind of dumb plays, whether that's sliding in bounds, throwing a bad interception, just airmailing a pass uh out of structure. So, we got to clean all that stuff up. But in general, since the bye-week, the Bears have turned into a run-heavy offense, and uh it's been largely uh working enough. Um but they're 24th with a neutral pass rate coming out of the bye. I think that's kind of explained why Caleb Williams has been more of a quarterback two than um having the quarterback one potential.

How many straight weeks do you think this Bengals defense has allowed 27 points plus?

>> Oh man, five.

>> Seven.

>> Yeah.

>> No excuses.

>> Again, Bears projected for 27 points basically this week.

>> Yep.

>> Okay. Jordan Love is your quarterback 12. This is against the Carolina Panthers. Um, the Packers so far this season when just watching them on Sundays, then going back and watching them earlier in the week, they're slow starters. I mean, again, Jordan Love went 16 of 19 for 214 yards and two touchdowns after halftime last week. This could easily be one of the games where they get it going immediately from the jump. Three straight quarters because they don't even need the fourth quarter of just great offensive play. Because on top of that, while this Panthers defense has been better against the run in some games this year, their pass rush has been non-existent unless you're facing Justin Fields.

>> Yeah. And you're not facing Justin Fields here. So, this is a spot where I like all the Packers is just taking your shots on which ones we can start. And the Jordan Love stuff, he's super efficient. If you're looking at offense right now, the Packers are second in EPA per play. So, it's the Colts, the Packers, then it's the Chiefs, Bills, and Cowboys. So they're really strong there. Same thing with success rate. They're top five there. It really just comes down to who's scoring the touchdowns. And Josh Jacobs is usually the hammer once they get to the five-yard line. So Jordan Love has to get it with the explosives. And for a while there, he was running pretty cold with the explosives. Uh mainly to Matthew Golden, but now you have Matthew Golden and Christian Watson, who I thought looked really good last week. And for a stretch there, the offensive line was was battered. All their guys are at least getting in limited practices uh up front, too. So, this is should be a spot where they absolutely roll.

>> Yeah. I mean, the Panthers have played two really good teams this season in the Patriots and the Bills, and they allowed 42 and 40 points in those games. So, I could see the Packers getting around that 40 mark this week.

All right, Brock Purdy, is your quarterback 13 or is it M. Jones at the New York Giants? I mean, Kyle Shanahan has taken this to another level every single week. Uh, I think his quote was, "It's not a long shot for Brock Purdy to play." That doesn't tell us that much, does it?

>> No, it doesn't. And then the reporters have said that Brock Purdy looks better this week than it has previously, but also too early to tell. The team total is up at 25 and a half. Um, but M. Jones could be projected for a lot of points against the Giants, too. So, too early to tell. Uh, a lot of the Brock Purdy stuff that's valuable is that him extending the play and picking up some first downs, but also just like kind of throwing on the run. I hope that we get that element back right away. Um, but in general, the Giants are just so beat up on defense. So, uh, like players like Paulson Adebo didn't play. There's other uh like their backups uh at corner left last week's game. So, you have a corner uh in the concussion protocol here. So, Paulo is not going to play with an MCL injury. And then even like their safeties have been limited. Xavier McKinney like their big um guy in free agency limited participant. Art Green another corner DNP. I mean, it's just a terrible secondary right now. So

>> if either one of these quarterbacks is ready to go then they're projected for a lot of points and for the most part the the 49ers have been getting it done through the air. So like in this month they are fourth in neutral pass rate. They've had like one game where they really ran it well, but the other games all of their production has been through the air.

>> Yeah. I mean, the Flott and Adebo injuries are a pretty big deal. And obviously the 49ers wide receivers have not been consistent. We get a Kendrick Bourne thing. We get Jauan Jennings being super up and down. Ricky Pearsall had a very hot start the season, but he's certainly not going to play this weekend. So, uh, yeah. I mean, at the same time, I feel like they can just beat them with George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey and call it a day.

>> Yeah. The one thing like what can go wrong here? Their center is still not practicing and like at some point Dexter Lawrence is going to turn it around. You would like to think and the rest of the offensive line is just not very good right now. But, um that really hasn't I mean that's been true for this entire season. The 49ers are still putting up a lot of points with like largely backups.

Jared Goff is your quarterback 14. This is against the Minnesota Vikings. Uh Goff is only dropping back 31 times per game, which is 28th across the league. Um Minnesota, this defense allowed top 10 scoring weeks to uh Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert. And most importantly, we have seen Jared Goff versus Brian Flores multiple times in his defense. And against the blitz versus Flores defense, Jared Goff is one of the best producers in the league.

>> Yep. Uh he has completed 80% of his passes for nine yards per attempt. And so while this is a different coordinator, it's not Ben Johnson. I'm certain there's going to be some carryover there, especially a lesser version of that Vikings defense this year versus years past.

>> We always talked about it. Chaotic defenses are a problem for inexperienced uh quarterbacks and play callers. That's not the case in uh Detroit. So we've mentioned that Amon-Ra St. Brown splits like he's like what is 105 yards uh in a touchdown in three of his last four games. In the other game, he's had 77 yards. Sam LaPorta, we'll get to him in a little bit. He's had some spike weeks, too. And then Gibbs went absolutely crazy against them. So, they score a bunch of points against Flores, so I'm not knocking him at all. Just the same story for for fantasy purposes is just they run the ball a ton. And Jared Goff doesn't run the ball himself. So, he's kind of average over the last couple years like the quarterback 10 in rankings despite the Lions being really high up there in points. So, um there's a couple injuries ahead of him where he might climb a couple spots here, but for the most part, this is a really clean spot for passing yards here.

>> I really don't think there's anything else to add. We talked through the Jameson Williams stuff yesterday. Amon-Ra St. Brown stuff is simply incredible and you have Sam LaPorta and then on top of that, I mean, with the Vikings rushing defense being so so bad, I think you're going to feel the speed of the Lions like of Jahmyr Gibbs uh and everyone else on top of it. Before we move on, I want if this is kind of like a preview show and we kind of let it fly.

>> I think the Lions beat them by like 21.

All right, next. Sam Darnold. I never can get Mark Cesario out of my head when I say Sam Darnold's full name, you know.

>> Yeah, I love Cesy.

>> What a legend. Uh, okay. This is at the Washington Commanders. And to me, this is one of the worst combinations of running game and passing game that the Commanders defense can face because we know this Seattle team uses multiple heavy sets. We've seen it with tight ends, you know, AJ Barner and Elijah Higgins. Now they get their all-world fullback back in O.J. Howard on the field.

>> Their rushing success is at its best on these edge perimeter runs. We've seen and spotlighted Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu being horrible at that. The Commanders continue to lose edge rushers. They are old and slow. And so to me, off of that rushing attack, these windows that Sam Darnold has threaded are going to be even bigger to hit down the field.

>> Yeah, they've placed three different uh defensive linemen on injured reserve in October. And then looking at the injury report right now, um Jer'Zhan Newton, defensive tackle, he has not practiced this week on top of it. And then Javon Kinlaw is playing through an injury and then like Von Miller's eating up a bunch of snaps and You know, it's it's a really bad defense and they're very static. And what has Dan Quinn done historically against the Shanahan kind of tree? Just get absolutely dominated like every single time. Just dominated, dominated, dominated, dominated. And guess what? You're going to get that once again. And Sam Darnold and JSN, uh, it's very difficult to stop them. And then we think that this could be a Kenneth Walker week, uh, getting to the perimeter. So, yeah, this feels like a great spot for

Seattle. And we talked about how good their defense is, and how like it feels like already a good defense about to take another kind of turn up. So, yep. This could be one of these games where it's like, oh yeah, the Seahawks are like the fifth best team in the NFC and like they're going to be a total problem in the wild card round. Um, and like we should take them serious like a top 10 team.

At the same time, if you and I are such believers in the Seahawks team, and it's only a three-point spread, maybe this is where we get snake-bitten a little bit.

Yeah. I mean, yeah, the NFL is just a total kick in the nuts when you're trying to project these things.

Joe Flacco is up next as your quarterback 16. This is against the Chicago Bears. Hopefully, he plays because this Bears defense struggles to pressure the opposing quarterbacks. And on top of that, Flacco is getting rid of the football so freaking quick that it's basically impossible for him to be pressured on top of it. Uh, he's dealing with an AC joint injury in his throwing shoulder. We'll see what type of medication the uh Cincinnati Bengals can throw at him. Uh, but you know, I think maybe a 40-some year old responds differently than a 20-some year old to that, too.

Yeah, I mean, they have really good Beaver tranquilizer, so I wouldn't put it past him to that he plays. Um, but yeah, I think for the most part, I'm expecting get the ball out quickly and throw the ball to Jamar Chase and see what happens from there. And I can see the ball not traveling as far down the field. But that's good enough for this Bengals offense to to keep it going. The Bears uh are really banged up in the secondary. So, uh, their top corner has been out for most of the season. Kyler Gordon, their slot corner, a good player. He was just placed on injured reserve uh this last week as well. So, um, they're missing a lot of people up front. I I will note though, the team total has dropped like a point and a half because of the Joe Flacco uncertainty. So whether that's there's a chance he doesn't play uh being factored in or just this is not the same version of Joe Flacco. I think either way it's kind of fair. So teams also at 24. Um, but this is not like expected to be some like crazy crazy game.

Trevor Lawrence is next for you as quarterback 17. Just before we started recording this, the freaking terrible news that Travis Hunter suffered a non-contact knee injury on Thursday's practice. uh then was confirmed and he's going on injured reserve and missing at least four games. And Liam Cohen said when asked about January in a playoff push if he'll be healthy, they're saying they're still assessing things. So yeah, to me it seems like there's some swelling and they're not sure how significant this non-contact practice injury is. Just as by everyone was heralded to be this team's, you know, key piece moving forward. Wide receiver one. Pete Prisco, who is very in tune with this Jaguars team, even said that he was going to play close to 100% of snaps on both sides of the ball, giving up multiple first-rounders and a second-rounder to take him at number two overall. Uh, and then now Hayden, we're back to Brian Thomas Jr. and Parker Washington catching passes here from Trevor Lawrence.

Just a brutal injury, non-contact. I'm guessing it's like a meniscus injury. They don't know if it's going to be a trim or a repair. We'll find out. But that quote at the end where it makes me feel like we might not see him for the rest of the season. So that just takes a huge huge amount of the fun that we've been h I mean I guess fun that we've been having with theoretical Jacksonville.

Yeah, it's it's fun to talk about I guess. Um, yeah, there's so much pressure on the rest of the wide receivers and Brian Thomas has been limited. Uh, all their players have been limited. Diami Brown has been limited in practice. They've been wearing non-contact uh jerseys in practice and then we'll see. They have dropped too many passes. Bren Strange still missing. So, it's a tougher spot for for Trevor Lawrence. So, the team total has dropped a half point since the injury news has has come out. Um, but yeah, I think just like big picture-wise, we're going to go into this offseason like even if Tra, let's say Travis Hunter returns to like the final three games coming off of injury. Like that's going to be kind of hard to assess him with that. There's going to go into this offseason, we don't have answers. We have the same questions that we're having. It's like, all right, is he too skinny and too many snaps to handle the NFL workload? Right now. He's missed time with the non-contact injury. Is he better at corner or wide receiver? I think he looks pretty good at both. What is the snaps on each side of the ball? I still have no idea. So,

Can he graduate from just an F slot role? Like, if this whole first half of the season prior to the buy was supposed to be a ramp up for the second half, now we don't get a second half.

It's brutal. It's beyond brutal. And yeah, they've traded a bunch of picks on it. So,

Lots of questions right now. They desperately need Brian Thomas to act like the player that he was last year. And right,

Who knows? This could be in one of these situations where we get the the reports like, "Hey, did you know he was playing with a fractured wrist and a the shoulder was this and that,"

Torn labor, so on and so forth.

It's going to be all that stuff, too. So, I I think that they could go back to trying to get Travis ETN going because of game scripts. They have not been able to do that recently, but the Raiders are just miserable on defense right now. And uh, as of Wednesday, Max Crosby had not practiced and uh, yesterday he was limited. So I'm guessing he's going, but he's probably not the same level of Max Crosby fighting through an injury right now. So no excuses still with the Jaguars. You're playing the freaking Raiders.

At the same time, I also wonder if they come back from Las Vegas with Jacobe Myers on their team playing

And making the move to

To, you know, solidify have some type of like baseline at wide receiver rather than the high variances that they've gotten so far this year. Uh, yeah, I mean, this Raiders team has just been unbelievably bad to watch and that's been on both offense and defense. So again, the Jaguars were winning some games this year that they shouldn't have based on, you know, the opponents. The Chiefs game, as we know, that final drive from Trevor, the 49ers game, Travis Hunter was a major part of that with that big catch from their own end zone.

If you don't beat the Raiders, then like this season could be like go in the tank kind of. Yeah.

Uh, you have to win this game. They're only two and a half point favorites here on the road and both teams are coming out of a buy. So

Win this game, you know, I mean, you lost the bye week with this Travis Hunter injury. So, uh, win this game.

Yeah. Right now, Jacksonville, their EPA per play 0.0001. I mean, they are at as basic as you can get on offense right now. So, more pressure on Trevor Lawrence to like elevate the surrounding cast. Now, he can't catch the ball for them, but correct, it's go time. No excuses. This team was supposed to be in the in the playoffs. They were getting they were talking spicy uh at the end of September. So, let's let's see it.

Final point on Jaguars real quick.

They created a ton of turnovers to open the year and that is an obvious regression candidate which did hit.

But at the same time, they're facing Gino Smith.

Yeah. Y

Who was gifting interceptions to just about every defense out there. So, that can be a huge factor in them winning future games and this one on top of it.

Bo Nix quarterback 18 for you this week. Uh, Houston Texans defense, great pass rushers against a great offensive line. Uh, man, Bo needs to find that like Goldilocks zone of not moving too much and moving just the right amount. And also don't try no-look pass on your first drive of the game, too.

Hopefully, he learned his lesson. He at least settled in last game doing that. Um, but yeah, this is a big-time challenge right now. The uh, Broncos have a 39% success rate allowed and the Texans is at 41%. So, we're talking about two top four defenses uh in that category. Yeah, it's it's going to be I think a fun like game to watch like all 22 wise and see the wrinkles each defense is doing and see which uh edge rushing duo steps up to the plate the most. Um, but both these quarterbacks have been very up and down. And with Bo Nix, he throws a lot like intermediate downfield to like Courtland Sutton and um, Troy Franklin, but now you have to do that against Derrick Stingley, uh, Kamari Lacader with like quality safeties over the top. So, I don't have a bunch of expectations here uh, in this one. And the team totals agree. So, the Broncos projected for only 19 and a quarter points. That's less than the Falcons. That's less than the JJ McCarthy uh Vikings. It's uh bottom four for this week.

Well, let's talk about Aaron Rodgers next. He's your quarterback 19 against Indianapolis Colts. Uh, what what do you want to discuss here? Uh, I mean, to me, there's like nothing left to say about the Steelers team. They can run the football sometimes with Jaylen Warren. They can have some cool passes to DK Metcalf uh in the red zone and after the catch. But the most intriguing element to them is their tight end usage with like Darnell Washington and Pat Freiermuth and John Smith. And while Aaron has made some fantastic plays this season and they're actually projected for a decent just under 24 points in this game, uh, he should not be fooled by like the things that Lou and Rumo throws at him.

Yeah, Lou's, bless his heart, he's just dealing with I mean, nobody's in the secondary and that's been the case the entire season. So they're not he's not going to get help all of a sudden. uh for Aaron Rodgers center Zack Frazier calf injury DNP limited is probably going to play but through an injury and then Isaac Samalu has not practiced with a pec injury uh either. So this offense I think has been like largely pretty solid. They do some funky things uh and it feels like largely unsustainable, but I think Rodgers been all right and they're 10th in EPA per play. Um, I think they're probably about an average offense. And what the Colts have done this year, and I mentioned with DK Metcalf, they've allowed the most receptions to wide receivers uh by like 10 uh this season. So, I think you're going to get some dinks and dunks going on here. And then hopefully the the shot plays DK Metcalf like that determines if the Steelers are going to have a fight or not because I just don't think their defense is going to be able to slow down Indianapolis. So, we're going to have to see like a vintage like it can't just be dinks and dunks like Darnell Washington's not going to win them the game this year like or this week. They need DK Metcalf and Calvin Austin and maybe a big explosive play to John Smith uh to kind of like keep this one close.

A total of 50 and a half in this one. So, it's one of those games of over 50. By the way, California, Texas, many states out there. We're in 41 of 50 underdogs. Prediction markets, some sports book states, too. So, go and use the Dog app along with your pickums, along with your battle royale drafts. Use promo code the show. The link is in the description down below. Uh, play $5 your first time and we'll hand you $100 in bonus credits. So, go and play in the Dog app if you never have before.

Next, let's talk about CJ Stroud. Best week of the season against that San Francisco 49ers defense. Now, Denver Broncos defense. A slightly different conversation since Patrick Surtain is not playing, but still only projected for 20 and three-quarters points here. To me, it's like Nick Bonito's like just even without Pat Patrick Surtain, like what's the plan there? Are they gonna do the six offensive lineman stuff? Uh, they're gonna get Nico Collins back. Do they pivot to the fast version of the offense where you're going to have Jaylen Noel in the slot uh and Jaden Higgins/Hudson flanker with Nico Collins running the vertical routes? Um, that would be more fun. Or is it going to be Braxton Barrios and who you name it out there? So, we'll see. The the offense looked better and CJ Stroud was moving around the pocket a little cleaner um in the last couple games here, but u this is a totally different test and they got defensive tackles that kind of collapse pockets as well and that's been a massive problem for Houston. So, I'm worried about their second-round rookie Ursery against the Broncos edge rushers uh on top of that. And um, they need Nico Collins to like really step up because this team like historically plays a lot of man coverage. We'll see if they still do that without Patrick Surtain. I'm guessing that they do because it's just Vance Joseph. Um, but Nico Collins is capable of just running right by people in the secondary. So, if they can hit on some of those that can decide the game here.

Yeah. And you know, this team can also just pull in a first-round pick that they weren't using >> uh to play in the secondary in J.R. Baron, you know, so >> he's played a lot of slot corner. >> Uh, I'm assuming maybe McMillan shifts on over to the outside along with Riley Moss and like that's how they fill in here for Patrick Surtain. >> But like they just get to pull the lever of a first-round talent and uh include him in this defense. So, I'm not as worried as I would be with other teams losing their best and arguably defensive player of the year in some other seasons. >> Because like you said, it's like Ursery versus some of these pass rushers. It's the interior that's been a mess versus some of these pass rushers like Zack Allen. And then in the back half, you you have this too. So, >> yeah. Baron was interesting as a prospect because he was like viewed as a slot player. He looks like a slot player, but final season at Texas was playing on the perimeter and like actually was able to hold up. So they've got a lot of, you know, answers uh and kind of to experiment here. And even like players like Dre Dre Greenlaw, full participant, he's been in and out of the lineup. He's ready to go in this one. >> Yeah, just 17 to 18 snaps for Baron over the last two games. That could go up to 30, 40, >> something like that this week.

Okay, JJ McCarthy is back in our lives. Quarterback 21 is at the Detroit Lions. Uh, barely anyone watched his second game. We all remember his first one because it was a spotlight one. It was that awesome fourth quarter. He had a rushing score on top of it. I'm not sure if we're discussing the rushing element here as much, probably because uh of the ankle injury he's coming back from multiple multiple multiple weeks. Uh, and now he gets the Detroit Lions and a Lions secondary that's been banged up all season long. Yet Calvin Shepard in company has the Lions playing at an awesome awesome level. So this is kind of a difficult one to come back from.

Yeah, Terry Arnold is going to play here. Brian Branch is going to be back um as well. So yeah, I just think big picture for the Vikings, it's I thought they slow-played this injury and the fact that he was medically cleared uh by the doctors to be available for the game and he's, you know, hurtling Justin Jefferson on the sideline and they wanted Carson Wentz to go like collapse on the field, I think is a data point. I think the way that the his teammates have kind of talked about JJ McCarthy is a data point. I think the flirtation around Aaron Rodgers and everybody else um has been data points. So, I think it's just on JJ McCarthy to kind of prove it. Um, otherwise, it's been um like everything is kind of signaling that he's not ready to play. And that's what they've been saying in the media that they've been like reworking his his feet to like line up to throws and whatnot. So, I think on top of that, the reason why they went with JJ McCarthy this offseason was to have enough money to spend on the offensive line. Well, guess what's happened? They're all injured. So, even like Christian Darrisaw coming back from injury, he's been in and out of the lineup. He was not able to practice on Thursday. He sometimes starts games and not finishes them. Ryan Kelly has been uh on injured reserve. Uh, Brian O'Neill has been in and out of lineups with the knee injury himself. Uh, they just got their first-round pick back at guard, too. So, it's it's not a good offensive line uh right now, and that makes me um a little bit nervous, especially if J.J. McCarthy gets into like bust-throw situations because the Lions have put up a bunch of points. Like, this is one of these games that just like makes me nervous.

While we're recording, Mike Silver just posted a lengthy column on The Athletic about the Vikings quarterback room and the decision they made last offseason. Here's an excerpt of it. Quote, "In that context, bringing back Sam Darnold was problematic. He and J.J. McCarthy did not forge an especially close relationship during their time together, and it would have been hard to envision the untested youngster winning a fair competition. The vibe didn't seem right for such an arrangement." And then just his lead and his post overall says, "Can J.J. McCarthy redeem the Vikings decisions? If not, the fallout could get messy."

Yeah. The Kevin Cipher from ESPN also had a pretty interesting quote at the end of his column where he was like speaking to somebody like close to the team was like, "You can't you couldn't bench Carson Wentz in that game because they don't want Max Brosmer to like look good." And like all of a sudden there's another quarterback controversy. It's just weird. It's just it's just weird. If J.J. McCarthy is good, and I thought he was going to be a good prospect that would need some time because if he was so inexperienced, then awesome. But everything else has been weird. We don't see this around the NFL. Like they're the way that they word things, it's it's odd.

And he needs to play well in order for this to be an obvious decision heading into next season. And if it's not, then you're going to see kind of the same flirtations that you discussed with Aaron Rodgers uh this summer.

So, okay. Next is Gino Smith, quarterback 22. We talked about his interceptions against this Jaguars defense that had a bunch of takeaways earlier this season. He's getting Brock Bowers back without the knee brace. Let's go.

Yeah, I'm I'm excited for this. I haven't seen Brock Bowers like himself in a very long time. Uh, at one point >> had 100 yards in like three quarters in week one and then we basically haven't seen him since.

Yeah. Uh, Jacobe Myers full participant. This could be the last game where everyone's ready to go here um before the trade deadline which will be next week and we'll we'll obviously cover that. Yeah, Gino Smith, it's the offensive line has been a total just fart. They we'll see if they're going to have Jackson Powers-Johnson in the lineup after getting benched before the buy. Um, and then their receivers have been dropping the ball and then they they've missed Brock Bowers. They can't run the ball because the offensive line and then Gino Smith three times a game just loses his mind. So, it's hard to trust. Um, I think matchup-wise I think it's okay. The Jaguars second or uh their secondary is okay. They don't have Deon Lloyd with an injury. Sounds like he's at least only limited in practice. Um, the problem is they have aliens on the defensive line. So, it's like one of like the biggest trenches mismatches of the week, but at least you have Brock Bowers to like quickly get the ball out too.

Okay, we can go through these because these guys aren't really like fantasy relevant, but we can talk about Michael Penix at the New England Patriots. Obviously, he's coming off an injury. So was Drake London. Uh, Kirk Cousins stepped in. Offense looked quite similar. Um, Michael Penix on the road has been terrible. I mean, he's had games of zero points and like seven points scored. Uh, and now he's against the New England Patriots who have difference makers at every level. You have Milt Williams up front. You have linebackers that can run. You have Christian Gonzalez, uh, and, you know, Jones and some other players, too. So, good luck to you, Penix.

The Falcons are 25th in EPA per play on offense. They are one spot ahead of the Jets. It It has been, it's been a failure on offense this year. I think we've seen glimpses of the right tackle missing. That's been a problem. The offense, I mean, Bijan's like fumbles have changed games even though he's been electric when he's not doing that. And then they've been struggling with how to use Darnell Mooney and Drake London at points. So, there's a lot of things to to worry about and I think that the matchup for the Falcons is is bad because the Patriots run defense has been elite and like that was their entire point of the offseason was to fix that up and then the Falcons don't throw the ball over the middle because Michael Penix has never done that. And on the perimeter, they got two corners that are pretty dang solid. Like if there's a spot to kind of like nitpick through the air, it's safety and linebacker. Well, when has that ever mattered for for Michael Penix? So, I think there's like some big issues with home >> grub.

Yeah, exactly. I mean, did Roma Dunce stunt Michael Penix's growth? That's the conversation we're having. Um, and he plus that knee injury. I don't think he's gonna be fully himself.

All right, here's Bryce Young uh at the Green Bay Packers. He will be the starter for this team. Um, the Panthers season in a nutshell this year is they need to beat the beatable teams as we saw like against the Falcons, the Dolphins. Heck, they even beat the Cowboys coming up. I think after this week, it's like the Saints and the Falcons again. But against actual good quality teams, they're going to get absolutely destroyed. Uh, we saw that against the Patriots and Bills >> Bills last week and then now you get the Packers. So, like I said in the Jordan Love thing, this might be a 40-17 shellacking here.

Yeah, 17 points. I'll take it for for the Panthers if they can do that. Um, they have no prayer. It's Bryce Young coming off of an injury and then all of the um offensive line reshuffling due to injuries, too. So, it's it's a tough spot. We just give Ted Karras McMillan 11 targets and let's keep this thing moving. I would like to see him in the slot just as much as they did last week. Like move around. Don't just ask him to be this like sideline boundary presence. And he can work the middle of the field too and win after the catch and all that type of stuff.

Um, yeah, I mean, the last time that Bryce played Micah Parsons, he did try to escape like he does against all these other teams and then Micah just hawks him down. Uh, I think we'll get at least one of those. Like again, backup offensive lines against the Packers is like a no-go. Twists and stunts. If I I dare anyone to watch this game, but Chandler Zavala is going to get like fall on his back without even getting touched because he can't move his feet against like these loops and everything.

So, next Cam Ward might be somewhat of the same thing against the Los Angeles Chargers. I will say this morning I went back and watched some Cam Ward stuff just because, you know,

Yeah.

We like what DK has done.

Mhm. I think the coaching's actually been better since Mike McCoy came in. You see the plays that you want to see from him, like the long elongated uh rollouts to the right and then kind of throwbacks to the left.

Yeah.

See some tight window stuff over the middle of the field. So, the arm is still there, right? The only thing is one, he doesn't have answers when he's hot and that leads to sacks. Two, five versus five offensive line versus pass rushers with the blitz. they are flat-out losing along the offensive line.

And then three, there are other times he just simply runs into pressure versus not staying in a clean pocket and kind of hitting that second or third progression into the second and third window over the middle of the field on these crossing routes. And so while there are definitely some positives, there's also some major negatives that you don't want the negatives to continue to kind of snowball for the rest of the season.

Yeah, I think they probably will just snowball for the rest of the season. He looks exactly like how I thought he was going to look. And I don't even think that's necessarily a bad thing. Um, obviously like record-wise and fantasy points-wise, it's horrific, but I think that's largely because of the the surrounding parts. And he's just going to need time to, like you say, he was very loose with his feet. He would drift around and in college, you have a little bit more space and the pockets are a little bit wider that you can do that. And when he was a tad late on some throws, he had the arm talent to to still win on those. In the NFL, it's just much harder to do. So, I've seen the same things. There's like big like out routes uh from inside the pocket where his arm talent is just like really really sick. Um, and I do like how they have the explosiveness out of the slot now with Jamir DK. They've not like leaned into that until the last couple weeks. Um, but at least he has like a little bit of an outlet there. But yeah, the pass protection plan has been really bad and then their one-on-ones. Um, they can't handle that either. Um, and then he just got to clean up his feet over time and that's going to take a long time. So hopefully they don't like absolutely bury him uh before it's too late.

We did say during his evaluation process that he's going to have some Will Levis moments, you know, and he has this year just letting the football go in two straight games out of his hand, some backbreaking interceptions on top of it.

And again, those plays just get amplified when you're on a terrible team.

That's Yep.

The environment you're in, the platform that you're on. Um, you mentioned it, the Ty Spears stuff. He looks pretty fun. So, I would not be surprised if this is the week where it's like full 180. Ty Spears, you're getting 60-70% of the the touches and snaps. And Pard, thank you for your services. We'll see if we can get a conditional 2028 seventh-round pick.

Okay, last one is Tyler Shuck. I mean, this is a pretty brutal first start for you on the road against the LA Rams. That pass rush. Are they coming off a bye week, too?

Yeah, the Rams. Oh, yeah. Of course, they they've never been more rested than this >> against Tyler Shuck who is going to get the football out so quickly. And I mean so quickly, but at the same time, some of that stuff's not going to be open. And he's going to feel Jared Verse and Kobie Turner and Byron Young and all these guys up front. Yeah, Shuck's probably thinking you couldn't have let Rattler get one more game and I can face the Panthers next week. He really had me go on the road against the absolute menaces that they have. And it's not even just um Verse, like Byron Young is a hell of a player. I mean, he's really high up there in sacks and they traded for Roger McCreary in the secondary and that's been kind of like their one like weak spot. Um, and it's one of the best defensive game plan teams week over week on top of that. And they run a lot of funky zone coverages and they can bring some pressure on occasion, too. So, it's it's a problem. Um, they're projected for 14 and three-quarters points. So, if they get to 20, that would be a major surprise. Um, and and you don't have your freaking center.

Yeah. But you have to do this. And they already said that Tyler Shuck is going to start for the rest of the season because he's 26 years old and he's the 40th overall pick. So, you have to >> you have to do this.

All right, let's quickly go on over to the tight ends. Um, your first tier, Trey McBride, Tucker Kraft, Tyler Higbee, Brock Bowers, George Kittle, Travis Kelce. Pretty good.

I mean, where would Trey McBride be if I was just doing wide receiver rankings? Because I think it would be top 12.

Yeah, especially if Jacob Eason is the quarterback.

Three touchdowns in his last two starts. I'm just saying. I'm gonna keep saying it.

I I'm here for it. Um, I don't think either either quarterback he's going to dominate against the the the Cowboys.

Yeah. But he might get more touchdowns if it's Jacob Eason as we have seen with more TDs with Jacobe than we have with Kyler.

I will say this, the top seven are in a really nice spot uh just in general. So like Aronado Gadson being my seventh option. Like the only reason is because there's more depth um in this the skill group around him. And I don't think the Titans are going to be able to push and make that a close game where with Kelce, I do think that will be a close game. Same thing with the other guys kind of around them.

I nearly just made the top one a top seven and the next group of five because Gadson kind of belongs up top.

Oh yeah.

Um >> Oh yeah.

But 7 through 12, it's Gadson, Kincaid, Ferguson, LaPorta, Loveland, and Z. And then we'll close things out with Theo Johnson, Cole Kmet, Hunter Henry, Evan Engram, and my guy AJ Barner. Anything else you want to add of this group?

Um, just going back up to the top here just because it's Brock Bowers's return. Where where would he go in drafts? Like the first part of the season has not happened. Like it's just all right, we're drafting for the this point forward now.

Got it.

George Kittle, are you taking Gadson over him? Like where are we at? Tyler Higbee, Kraft, like >> it's I think there's a lot of like fourth, fifth round tight ends right now. I I would put Trey McBride in the second round, but like Tucker Kraft, Higbee, Bowers, Kittle, I think those are all round three, four turn level tight ends. Same thing with Gadson.

Yeah, unfortunately, this Raiders team as we know it is quite poor and the Chip Kelly, Gino Smith stuff has not worked. The offensive line is more injured. And if we're looking at their schedule, it's the Jaguars, then the Broncos on Thursday night, so short week. Then you get the Cowboys, which is really nice. Then it's the Browns and then you're going to have another game against the Broncos, another game against the Texans and you also have the Philadelphia Eagles in there. So, it's a rough stretch here from here on out from just a defense to offense standpoint.

I think I would take Kraft, Higbee, and Kittle ahead of Brock Bowers for the entire season. Um,

And McBride.

Yeah. Yeah. McBride is like not even close. I I think McBride is going to be a total smash. And then I think Gadson and Bowers and stuff would be like interesting. I would probably take Bowers because the the floor is pretty damn solid, but Gadson's so real.

Yeah. At the same time, like, you know, Bowers can post 100 yards and three quarters too.

Absolutely. Absolutely.

So, if you have any of them, I would feel good about it. There's like a true have and have-not among tight ends, I feel like, right now.

Yes. Uh, quickly on the other ones, Dalton Kincaid. Yeah. And you can have two of them like we talked about in stats versus film of like I have Kittle and Kraft and I'm starting Kraft in a flex in one of these spots like don't be afraid to do that at all.

Yep. Yeah. I got like >> for example. Yeah.

Gadson versus Quentin Johnston and Xavier Worthy and my my brain is in a total pretzel for a flex spot. So um Dalton Kincaid is interesting this week because he's second in fantasy points per route run and they're just going to probably have to drop back more often when you get the Chiefs. I think it's a good bounce-back spot for Dalton Kincaid. Ferguson, like you we've said previously, I think he's going to take a hit because of CeeDee Lamb and Brock or and George Pickens. Like he's the the tertiary option there. And then uh with Cole Kmet, I'll have to drop him if Cole Kittle returns. Um, but did want to mention the Bengals have allowed 18.3 PPR points per game to tight ends. Easily the most in the NFL, but I looked it up because that's that's so many. 18.3. 18 NFL defenses have allowed uh uh less than that to fantasy quarterbacks this year. So it's it's a great spot if if Cole Kittle is not going to be out there for Cole Kmet.

There you go. All right, that does it. We'll be back here on Sunday morning for the start show for Hayden can ask himself Gadson versus QJ versus Xavier Worthy. Prediction. Who do you think is going to be the big flex conundrum player?

Man,

Uh, you're gonna get a lot of Travon for the flex.

Um, I think that one might be obvious. Reminder didn't start again or practice again today.

Yeah. Still >> I I I think it's going to be Rico Dowdle.

Rico Dowdle. Yeah. Some BAM Knights there. Yeah. It's usually the running backs.

Yeah, I think it's gonna be Rico Dowdle because uh that might go terribly, terribly wrong for them as a franchise. All right, thank you all for tuning in. Shout out to Weeds and Mosho up the villa. We'll talk to you all soon. See.