Transcription
Week 10 is here, and we have five weeks left of the fantasy football regular season. It's crunch time. We're getting through the last batch of byes, and it is time for us to book our spot in the fantasy football playoffs. Whether you're in a bye-week situation, whether you're trying to claim for one of those wild card spots, it is crucial that we get inside the top six, and every win is magnified from here on out.
But before we waste any more time, before we get into the tier list, we go through the "Will They Play" tier and the two main guys in that tier this week: T.J. Hockenson and Matthew Stafford. We'll start off with T.J. Hockenson of the Carolina Panthers. He came down late week with a hamstring injury, and Dave Canales does seem concerned about that injury. I would, by all accounts, guess at this point that T.J. Hockenson will be out for week 10. So, if you have T.J. Hockenson, we'll talk about a replacement option later in this video, but obviously, he's going to be a huge loss. If he was expected to play, he would have been a top 20, top 25 wide receiver, but he's a rookie. He's fighting through this hamstring strain. It makes sense that the team wants to be precautious with this.
Matthew Stafford, similar situation. Rookie wide receiver. He's been battling with a shoulder injury all week. And Matt LaFleur said he's reportedly fighting to play for week 10. We'll see what that ends up meaning. We'll talk about Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson in this video, but Christian Watson specifically is the guy volatile to losing value. If Matthew Stafford is playing in this game, slight dock towards Christian Watson.
And outside of injuries, we also have a few crucial byes in fantasy this week. Obviously, your Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Tennessee Titans, all on bye. So, if you have, you know, Ja'Marr Chase, T. Higgins, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, all of those wide receivers are going to be on bye. And of course, if you want to throw some of the Titans guys in there, Treylon Burks, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Calvin Ridley, of course, they will also be on bye. And like I say every week, don't be the doofus who leaves them in your lineup.
But moving on to the tier list and going back to a tier of his own player, S-tier, Puka Nacua, wide receiver of the LA Rams. Very simple. He's the wide receiver one in PPR points per game. Especially if you isolate out the game that he left early, he is completely crushing the rest of the wide receiver position. In fact, if you isolate out the game he left early, he has scored 20-plus PPR points in every single other game this year. And that's including last week where he scored 22.8 points on 49% of the snaps and 65% of the routes. He's automatic. His role is the best in the entire NFL. And this Rams offense is humming. We've seen Matthew Stafford play MVP-level football. We've seen Cooper Kupp take a ton of pressure off on the other side. But it's pretty clear this is Puka's world, and we are all just living in it. And on top of that, this is a great game environment. Second highest game total of the week, second highest projected pace of the week. Puka Nacua is set up to crush yet again. And I talked about the fact that he hasn't scored less than 20 PPR points in every single game he's been healthy in. When you actually look at his 17.35 half-PPR point projection on Underdog, his lowest half-PPR performance in the games he didn't leave early was actually 17.3 points. So the fact of the matter here is he's only gone lower than 17.35 one time, and that was when he scored 0.05 less than his current projection, which is why I am smashing the "higher" on Puka Nacua until he proves me otherwise. He's a guy I'm inserting in my lineup and expecting 20-plus half-PPR points every single week.
Moving on to the next tier, and in my wide receiver two through four, Jackson Smith-Njigba, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Justin Jefferson this week. And at two, with Jackson Smith-Njigba, you can make the case on an even matchup perspective, maybe he should be in the Puka tier. But I just think with Puka's matchup combined with a lesser matchup for JSN, you should factor that in and make Puka Nacua a tier of your own. However, JSN has been the clear number two wide receiver in fantasy so far. 22-plus PPR points per game. Only three wide receivers have done that so far this year: Puka Nacua, Jackson Smith-Njigba, and Rashee Rice, who missed the first six games of the season. And even though this is only an average matchup on paper, it's the fact that the Seahawks are implied for nearly 26 points, and Jackson Smith-Njigba scored 20-plus in each of his last four games. He's automatic. And like I said, if any wide receiver is going to be knocking down on the door for Puka Nacua, it's going to be JSN in these coming weeks.
And a guy not far off of JSN. In fact, a guy that I would consider similar to JSN in terms of the usage. We have Amon-Ra St. Brown, wide receiver of the Detroit Lions. He's the wide receiver four in PPR points per game this year, and he's averaging 20.7 on the season. But if you look specifically since week two, keep in mind week one, they're getting used to Ben Johnson. We didn't really see the idealized usage for Amon-Ra St. Brown. Since week two, we've seen him at a completely different level: 22.4 PPR points per game. That would rank as the number two wide receiver across a full year. And when you combine that with a 29-plus implied point Lions offense, with Amon-Ra St. Brown posting 10-plus targets in each of his last three games, he's automatic, man. This is still one of the best offenses in the league. And Washington just allowed 129 receiving yards to JSN.
Number four, we got Justin Jefferson going up against the Baltimore Ravens. And I would say this is the projection, this is the rank that maybe needs the most explanation because you would say across the full year, I mean Puka Nacua, Jackson Smith-Njigba, Amon-Ra St. Brown clearly at a different level than Justin Jefferson. However, with Justin Jefferson, man, he scored double-digit PPR points in every single game this year. And specifically in his last four, he has commanded nine-plus targets in every game. He just simply hasn't had that big-time spike week. But at the same time, as we know, this is a generational talent. This is one of the, you know, five to 10 best wide receiver talents that we have ever seen in the NFL. And I think Jordan Love is going to keep improving, man. It's his second start coming off the ankle injury. And this is a very good game environment. 49-point game total, and the sharps are hammering the over in this game. Sure, Jefferson, he hasn't had a spike week this year. Of course, you look at the overall raw points per game, not on the level of these other three guys, but I feel like he's due, and I feel like this is the game environment to be able to get him there.
But moving on to the next tier, and this is going to be my wide receivers 5 through 8: Drake London, Davante Adams, A.M.E.C.H.I. Igbuka, and Michael Pittman Jr. of the Indianapolis Colts. We'll start up top here with the Berlin game, the 9:30 a.m. kickoff time. Shout out the, you know, European schedule here. But all jokes aside here, we got Drake London of the Atlanta Falcons going up against the Indianapolis Colts. Of course, we'll talk about the flip side with Pittman later, but Drake London, what else to say other than being a target alpha on this team? We just saw him have his third week of 25-plus PPR points this season, and he has posted elite number one wide receiver metrics across the board: 33% yearly target share, 41% yearly air yard share. He's proven himself as one of the clear target hogs in the NFL. And I have respect for Sauce Gardner, but Drake London showed he is matchup-proof last week going up against Christian Gonzalez. Tough matchup on paper against the Patriots. And we saw over 38 PPR points from Drake London. It's the way he's used. It's the way he's playing. And we see Michael Penix willing to rip him the football in tight areas. He's averaging 19.1 points per game on the season. And I truly think Drake London has arrived.
But moving on to wide receiver six, we have Davante Adams of the LA Rams. And don't get me wrong, he's been a monster all year, but I really think last week just proved how dominant he can be even when Puka Nacua is in the lineup. Even with Puka Nacua playing, even when Puka Nacua scoring 22.8 points, we see a spike week from Davante Adams. And it's pretty simple, man. He's got a great all-around checklist, great involvement, great offensive situation, and 60% of the Rams' yearly end zone targets. This is exactly the environment we want to see for a Hall of Fame aging wide receiver. Adams, like I said, although he is not the number one in his offense, he's getting number one caliber usage. And to me, as long as he's playing like this, as long as the Rams offense looks like this, he is a wide receiver one in fantasy.
But moving on to wide receiver seven, we got A.M.E.C.H.I. Igbuka of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And he had the full bye-week to recover from his hamstring injury. And quite frankly, he's still scoring 15-plus PPR points per game despite failing to record 10-plus points between week 6 to 8. Before that happened, weeks one to five, when he was fully healthy, operating in a high-octane Tampa Bay offense, he was averaging over 20 PPR points per game, he was averaging 89 receiving yards per game and a receiving touchdown per game. This offensive line potentially getting Luke Goedeke back. Maybe Baker Mayfield gets healthier out of the bye, but more importantly, we need healthy. The bye-week he had to fully recover. And now with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out of this game, he is going to be relied upon as a 10-plus target option.
Now, wide receiver eight, we got Michael Pittman Jr. of the Indianapolis Colts. I talked about the flip side with Drake London. Now, we'll talk about Michael Pittman. He's been playing at an extremely high level of late. 30 targets in his last three games and six touchdowns through nine weeks for this Colts offense. We'll talk about a couple of his teammates later on, but it is very clear Michael Pittman Jr. is the number one alpha target in this offense and he is the number one wide receiver attached to an offense we believe in. The Colts offense has looked great all year, and I do think this is a bounce-back spot after a kind of underwhelmed pass game kind of struggled against that Pittsburgh defense last week. With Michael Pittman Jr., 20-plus PPR points in three straight games, and he is finally back looking healthy after battling that back injury in 2024. And a healthy Michael Pittman Jr. is going to be a top 12 to 15 weekly wide receiver.
But moving on to the next tier, and this is a tier I'd classify as the wide receiver one-twos, guys that you consider backend wide receiver ones, high-end wide receiver twos in fantasy. We head on to Ladd McConkey, Zay Flowers, Jaylen Waddle, Rome Odunze, Garrett Wilson, and Courtland Sutton, who of course played on Thursday Night Football against the Raiders. But we're start off the top with Ladd McConkey of the LA Chargers. And while Ladd had that bit of a hiccup in week nine, you know, 9.66 PPR points. Not quite what you want to see. But if that's a low, a stretch where he scored four straight games of 14-plus PPR points, we'll take it, man. Because coming into that game in the last month, he was averaging over 18 PPR points per game, and he is still number two on this team in routes across the last month of the season. The Steelers, they are bottom 10 in EPA against the pass, and they allow the fourth most wide receiver points in fantasy so far. With Ladd McConkey, I think he is the number one of this wide receiver trio. You can argue whether him or Quentin Johnston is truly the number one on this team, but to me, out of these three wide receivers with him, Quentin Johnston, and Keenan Allen, my money is on McConkey to lead that group in targets. He's the most talented player in that receiving core, and he is getting the best usage. So, wide receiver nine, I understand there's target competition, but to me, he is the clear alpha of this wide receiver trio.
Wide receiver 10, we got Zay Flowers of the Baltimore Ravens going up against the Minnesota Vikings on the road. With Zay Flowers, we saw in Lamar Jackson's return, he produced five receptions and 64 receiving yards and 11.4 PPR points. But we do have to contextualize just how much went against him in this game. For starters, the Ravens, they were bludgeoning the Miami Dolphins. We only saw 23 Lamar Jackson passing attempts. And even despite only 23 attempts, he was the clear alpha on this team, 64 of the 203 passing yards. He just was unlucky in the touchdown department. Like we saw a couple touchdowns to Mark Andrews. We saw Lamar Jackson throw four touchdowns in this game, but none of them went to his number one wide receiver. With the Vikings defense, they started the year extremely strong, but they have been extremely more pass-funnel as of recent weeks. And we've seen teams really take advantage, man. For example, we saw what the Chargers did to them just a couple of weeks ago. So, for me, when I'm looking at this Baltimore offense, I trust Lamar Jackson and I trust his number one wide receiver to be able to bounce back.
But moving on to wide receiver, I love when we got Jaylen Waddle going up against the Buffalo Bills, and he's been phenomenal since Tyreek Hill went down. Since Tyreek Hill went down, he has scored 14-plus PPR points and commanded a 20-plus% target share in four of his last five games. This is the single highest over/under on the slate. And as we know, given the game spread, Miami is going to have to be playing a lot of catch-up. We saw what that looked like last week: ton of volume operating to Jaylen Waddle. With Waddle, he's getting wide receiver one-level usage. There's a lot of question marks with this Miami Dolphins offense moving forward. I think that's more of a long-term issue than one that should be expected to halt him in week 10.
Next up at WR 12, we got Rome Odunze of the Chicago Bears going up against the New York Giants. And look, I understand if you started him in your lineup last week. You got the goose egg. It was not feeling good if you had Rome Odunze in your lineup. But Caleb Williams, he looked good. This passing attack, it looked good. Ultimately, when we look at the overall peripherals when it comes to this offense, they played at an extremely high level, and we're really starting to see this Ben Johnson offense come to fruition. Chicago this week implied for nearly 26 points against the Giants. And to be frank, I just think Rome is due for that big-time spike week. We saw him drop a touchdown last week. Drops have been a concern of late, but his hands were one of his biggest assets coming out of college. His hands were one of his biggest assets even last season. Earlier on the season, we were talking about a wide receiver one-level ascension. To me, that talent, that player is still there with Rome Odunze. And as this Bears offense continues to project better and better, I am trusting Rome Odunze to be able to bounce back. He scored 15-plus PPR points in each game prior to the bye-week, and he has only done that one time since. Like I said, I ultimately think that evens out, and I think he is due for a big-time performance. So, give me the higher on his 10.05 half-PPR point projection over on Underdog.
But moving on to wide receiver 13, we got Garrett Wilson of the New York Jets. And prior to getting hurt, he scored 19-plus points in five of his seven games. He was off to a scorching start. He was a top-eight level wide receiver in fantasy. And now the Jets defense just traded their two best players. There is some volatility. Obviously, we've seen Justin Fields' accuracy really up and down as the Jets starting quarterback, and this is a very difficult matchup. Cleveland Browns defense has been no joke this year. 38-point game total, not the game environment we want. However, I'm just willing to give Wilson his benefit of the doubt, man. He was so automatic prior to getting hurt. He's a PPR scam given the level of involvement he gets, and he is the true alpha number one wide receiver for this team. We'll see what ends up happening. Maybe Mason Taylor takes a big role out of the bye. They just traded for Adonai Mitchell. But all that being said, all it can do is impact the level of offense we see because Garrett Wilson is the undisputed number one.
And then finally at 14, we'll keep it very brief. Courtland Sutton, he was a big hole in your lineup this week. Four targets, three catches, 224 receiving yards, 5.4 PPR points. Not what you wanted to see. I mean, the Broncos offense really struggled. Bo Nix looked bad. I'm sure there'll be better days, but you really wanted him to take advantage against a good matchup like the Raiders represented.
But moving on to my next tier, this is what I would call the high-end wide receiver twos. Nico Collins, DeVonta Smith, A.J. Brown, Marvin Harrison Jr., Romeo Doubs, Chris Olave, and DK Metcalf. Wide receiver 15, Nico Collins, and man, I want to have him a tier higher, possibly even two tiers higher. Nico Collins' talent should be a top 10 wide receiver. The issue is that the offensive projection just simply isn't there. The Texans offense hasn't looked good, and now we have Davis Mills starting. However, I will give you guys the positive of the situation because last week, returning from that concussion, we saw 11 targets and 14.5 PPR points, even despite C.J. Stroud leaving the game. And in the time that we saw him play with Davis Mills two years ago, he got six targets on 47% of the snaps. It's very clear when Davis Mills is in, we can see him hyper-fixate on Nico Collins. And while the target quality is not going to be there, the overall offensive projection is not going to be there. We'll see if he can take advantage of a Travis Hunter-less Jacksonville secondary. He scored his most fantasy points of the season against.
Moving on to wide receivers 16 and 17, we have the Eagles duo of DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown. With this duo, we have actually seen the Eagles rely upon more of the pass game as of late since week three: 57% neutral pass rate, which is 13th in the NFL. Top pass in the NFL for a team that was the clear bottom last year. We saw last year the offensive approach wanting to rely upon Saquon, wanting to rely upon that ground game. This year, they just simply haven't been able to run the ball at that same success. So, we've seen them air it out a little bit more. These two wide receivers clearly top talents with A.J. Brown. He's been at 15.4 points per game, but DeVonta Smith has been even better: 16.8 PPR points per game. He's been a legit wide receiver one since week three. And to me, until he proves that he is not the number two on this team, I will take him as the preferred option to A.J. Brown, which is also why I'll take the higher on his receiving yard projection. 52 and a half receiving yards. I will take the higher. In three of his last four games, he has gone higher than 52 and a half. And the only game he didn't was when the game was out of reach against the Giants. We got this week going up against the Packers. I expect this to be a close game, and I expect the Eagles to rely upon their two wide receivers.
Wide receiver 18, we got Marvin Harrison Jr. of the Arizona Cardinals coming off a seasonal high 22.6 PPR points, 10 targets against the Cowboys, but we do have to get the elephant out of the room. Doesn't take a special performance to beat up on the Cowboys. Like, full transparency, the Cowboys defense has been horrific all year. But I do have to give Marvin Flowers because quite simply, even in spite of the easy matchup, even in spite of DaRon Bland falling over himself on the other side, Marvin Harrison Jr. played some good football. Marvin Harrison Jr. was high-pointing the football. Marvin Harrison Jr. was attacking at the catch point. Marvin Harrison Jr. was looking like Ohio State Marvin Harrison Jr., and that's my claim here. I really do think Marv mentally, physically, just overall as a developmental player has really taken the next step. And to be honest, even in spite of a tough matchup, Seattle, no joke, in the secondary, Mike Macdonald really leading a stingy defense, Aiden O'Connell their new defensive coordinator, really taking that defense up a notch. But to me, I'm just trusting the Marvin Harrison Jr. breakout. Like I understand it is not the Dallas Cowboys this week. He's probably not going to score 22.6 points, but I do think he can establish himself as a top 15 wide receiver rest of the way.
And at 19, we got Romeo Doubs, wide receiver of the Green Bay Packers going up against the Philadelphia Eagles. On the other side, I obviously mentioned DeVonta Smith, A.J. Brown. But I do have to give Romeo Doubs his love because holy crap, he has been fantastic since week four. 26-plus% target share in that stretch. 15.8 PPR points per game. Now he has an opportunity for even more work. Obviously, the tragic news, Tucker Kraft goes down with the ACL tear last week. I think we see more and more Romeo Doubs involvement. I wouldn't be shocked, man. Number one X wide receiver, high-scoring game environment. He's going to play 85-plus% of the routes and he's probably going to flirt with around 30% of the targets. So if he's getting valuable outside targets, end zone targets from Jordan Love, I think we need to be treating this guy as a wide receiver two in fantasy.
At 20, we got Chris Olave. And on face value, you'll see, wow, Romeo Doubs over Chris Olave. That's pretty crazy, right, Danny? Well, no, because I honestly think that this projection for Olave is very difficult, man. Carolina defense has been no joke this year, and I truly think Tyler Shough is a big downgrade from Spencer Rattler. Bad game environment, 17-point implied Saints offense. The only saving grace for Chris Olave is the fact that he's a 30-plus% target share without Rashid Shaheed. Shaheed obviously traded at the deadline, goes to Seattle. But I also view this as a negative for the offense because if you don't have your field stretcher, if defenses are playing you a lot more man-up, how are they going to get consistent space to operate on offense? Especially with an inexperienced quarterback that I don't believe in. So with Chris Olave, he has to be a top 20 wide receiver. He's far too involved. But I have significant concerns in regards to this offense.
And at 21, we got DK Metcalf of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pretty simple. Going on the road to play the LA Chargers. He's been very up and down this year. To me though, the limiting factor has just been the overall offensive passing volume. Because when we look at Metcalf, he's averaging 13.2 PPR points per game, but he's only posted three games of 60-plus receiving yards. He's only posted one game of eight-plus targets. He's not your standard target hog. He's not a Amon-Ra St. Brown, a Ja'Marr Chase, a CeeDee Lamb. Like when when DK Metcalf gets nine targets, that is like a peak week for him. We're realistically looking on a weekly basis, 5 to seven targets, hoping he spikes on a miscoverage because that is the DK Metcalf experience. And that'll work sometimes. Again, 13.2 PPR points per game. That's more than a guy like Nico Collins, but it's just not sustainable unless he can really prove he can command eight-plus targets on a weekly basis. To me, DK Metcalf's going to be stuck in this range because at least earlier in the year, we saw an evident 25% target share in his first five games. But since that, we've seen Metcalf post three of his four lowest single-game target shares in his last three games.
But moving on to the low-end wide receiver twos, we got Stefon Diggs, Jordan Addison, Quentin Johnston, Deebo Samuel, and Khalil Shakir consisting of that tier this week. Starting at the top, Stefon Diggs of the New England Patriots. I want to rank him higher because he's one, when he's on the field, he commands targets, gets valuable red zone looks. We have seen him score a touchdown in his last two games. In fact, he's scored 10-plus PPR points in each of his last three games. It's clear when he's on the field, he's the number one target for Drake Maye. The issue with Stefon Diggs is that his route share just simply isn't consistent. However, I do think it could be more consistent this week. Tampa Bay, they are one of the biggest pass funnels in the NFL, and this is a sneaky shootout environment with no Rhamondre Stevenson for this game. And to me, Trevon Henderson's best attribute being his contribution out of the backfield. I think we see the Patriots air it out a little bit more than usual. And I think we see them trust the right arm of their quarterback in Drake May.
At 23, we got Jordan Addison, wide receiver of the Minnesota Vikings, going up against the Baltimore Ravens. And he did have a down week in week nine, but he has scored 14.5 points per game since returning from his suspension. I mentioned it with Justin Jefferson, but this is an extremely favorable game total. And the raw targets are really the only concern for Addison because we've only seen eight in the last two games. But Addison has that big-play upside, touchdown equity. And what's a well-projected Vikings offense this week? And on top of that, with Aaron Jones banged up entering this game, maybe we see some more opportunities in the YAC game for Addison.
24, we got Quentin Johnston, wide receiver of the LA Chargers, going up against Pittsburgh. He got back on track in week nine, but he's been the clear number three option in this Chargers passing game after Ladd McConkey and after Quentin Johnston Jr. But like I mentioned with Ladd McConkey, this is a defense to target with this Pittsburgh secondary. Bottom 10 in defensive EPA against the pass. Like I said, top four in terms of fantasy points allowed against wide receivers. The Cowboys, the Bengals, they're up there as well. The Steelers are just on that level. They allow a lot of fantasy points to wide receivers. And Justin Herbert is playing MVP-level football. To me, when I look at Quentin Johnston, he's still got the size. He's still got the speed, and he plays 85-plus% of the routes for a passing offense we believe in.
25, we got Deebo Samuel, wide receiver of the Washington Commanders. And I'm willing to still give him some benefit of the doubt because if you just look at his on/off splits when Jaden Daniels is playing versus not, it's going to be a lot less appealing than you would want. Like if we look at those splits specifically, and the games that Jaden Daniels played versus Jaden Daniels didn't play, and the games he played, 15.7 PPR points per game for Deebo, the wide receiver 13. And the games that Jaden Daniels didn't start, he was only at 9.7 points per game as the wide receiver 47. Like I said, I'm willing to give him a little bit of the benefit of the doubt. There is still no Terry McLaurin in this game. Sam Howell, sure, even though he's starting, this is still the second highest over/under on the slate. And the Washington offense is still implied for over 20 points in this game. Even despite not having Jaden Daniels, the market still thinks Sam Howell can lead a tenable offense. And as long as this offense is tenable and Deebo Samuel's healthy, I do trust him as a top 25 level wide receiver.
And at 26, new entrant to this tier, but we have Khalil Shakir of the Buffalo Bills going up against Miami this week. And I have to adjust, man. And I wanted to say, okay, he's a fringe top 35 wide receiver, top 40 wide receiver, but he's been so much more in these recent weeks. 24-plus% target share in four of his last five games, and this is a great game environment for Shakir, over 29 implied Bills points. The clear number one option for this Bills passing game and seven-plus targets in each game after the bye-week. There is some risk. Maybe the Bills go up big. We see a lot of, you know, running back touches, less Josh Allen passing volume because they're just up in this game. But to me, Shakir has been the engine of this passing offense, and Josh Allen is just simply way too good to not have his number one wide receiver as a top 36 guy at this point.
But moving on to the wide receiver threes, we got Jahan Dotson, Josh Downs, Rashid Shaheed, Alec Pierce, Parker Washington, Jauan Jennings, and Jameson Williams of the Detroit Lions. And at 27 with Jahan Dotson, he goes up against the Chicago Bears on the road. He posted another 11-target game, man. Like I cannot hate on the fact that he is the true number one layup option in this offense. Even if maybe the overall downfield looks get lessened when Darius Slayton is on the outside. We'll talk about Slayton later on in this video. He's going to be in the flex tier area. But I do have to give Jahan Dotson his flowers because this offense is actually quietly good. 20-plus offensive points in four straight games. And we just saw Chicago get lit up by Joe Flacco. So even though we don't get the downfield looks, even though we don't get the most valuable targets, if Jahan Dotson is in a game environment where he can command 10-plus points and this Giants offense is going to be moving the football like they have been, I think we have to consider him a top 30 wide receiver.
And Josh Downs of the Colts comes in at 28. He's been a top 35 weekly wide receiver in each of his last four games. And we just saw him post a season-high with 73% of the routes in week nine. We saw with the Colts, they went down against the Steelers. We actually saw them really open up their passing game. And it's pretty simple. When Josh Downs is on the field, Josh Downs gets targets. And Josh Downs has been one of the best performing players on this team. Like although he's only in this slot-only role, he's got a 24% seasonal targets per route. And the Colts offense, like I said, still one of the best units in the league. Sure, we saw the hiccup against the Steelers, but as long as he continues to score points in this role, he needs to be considered as a top 35 weekly option.
And 29, this is where I figured Rashid Shaheed should come in. Going up against the Arizona Cardinals, obviously newest Seattle Seahawk at the deadline, at the deadline from the New Orleans Saints. They acquired him in exchange for a fourth and fifth round pick this year. And when we look at this situation, Tyler Lockett, he's doubtful to play. Cooper Kupp, he is expected to play, but keep in mind, he's coming off a hamstring injury as an older wide receiver that was quite frankly losing his efficiency even prior to getting hurt. There was a reason why Seattle made this deal. They wanted to get Rashid Shaheed, and we saw Rashid Shaheed play the best football of his NFL career when Clint Kubiak was his offensive coordinator last year. It's very simple. If he's able to even get 65-70% of the routes, I really trust his role given the status of the other Seahawks wide receivers. We know JSN's going to eat, but that's really the only question mark I have. Is Shaheed going to play 60% of the snaps, 70% of the snaps, or even 80% of the snaps? It really just depends on how much he knows the playbook at this point. But all I do know is the first things he's going to learn in the playbook are going to be the most valuable downfield routes, and he is a threat to score on any touch.
And Alec Pierce comes in at 30. Um, you can debate amongst yourselves Josh Downs versus Alec Pierce. Very, very close in my rankings. They're nearly back to back here. But I do slightly lean Josh Downs in full PPR. In half PPR, I probably lean Pierce because with Alec Pierce, he was initially, you know, a sacrificial X. He was on the field, but because he was 6'3", 210, 4.3 speed, all he was really doing is threading vertically. But we've really seen the Colts expand his passing game role. 28 targets in his last three games. And he's quietly averaged 72 receiving yards per game this season. I already mentioned just how strong this Colts offense projects. One of the best offenses in the league. But if he's going to continue seeing this level of uptick in usage, I think we need to consider Alec Pierce every week wide receiver three. I know I've said that pretty consistently in this video, but Pierce is playing some extremely good football, and this is a great matchup for him to get in behind with Atlanta. Sure, very, very good defense overall, but his involvement is just simply too good to ignore.
And at 31, we got Parker Washington of the Jacksonville Jaguars going up on the road to play the Houston Texans. There's no Travis Hunter or Brian Thomas Jr. for Washington, and he has posted 19 targets and now operates as that full-time Z, full-time slot wide receiver for this Jaguars team. He's played 85-plus% of the snaps in two straight games. And although it is a challenging matchup, it's a bad game environment. This is simply too much usage to ignore. And Parker Washington, if he continues playing in this role, is going to be a weekly strong PPR flex option.
32, we got Jauan Jennings. 19 targets in the last three games, and he scored his second touchdown of the season against the Giants. With the Rams defense, they are a challenging matchup on the other side, but the 49ers are still implied for over 22 points. And Jauan Jennings, he has operated as that true number one wide receiver with Ricky Pearsall and Brandon Aiyuk sidelined for the 49ers. He is volatile, but he looks a lot healthier than he did a few weeks ago. And he has gotten a 23-plus% target share in three straight games.
Now watch for 33. We got Jameson Williams of the Detroit Lions going on the road to play the Washington Commanders. And we saw another Jameson Williams spike week, like four catches, 66 yards, receiving touchdown coming out of the bye-week. You want to have Jameson Williams higher in your rankings. But when I contextualize the fact that he has only scored double-digit PPR points in three games this year, that he hasn't scored a single game with over 20 PPR points, what really are we looking for for Jameson Williams? Sure, he got there on the box score last week, but at the same time, he's a nine-point per game scorer and he has less than 40 targets on the season. You're hoping for the big play, but even the big play, if it nets you 16, 17, 18 points, is it all that worth for? Like realistically with Jameson Williams, you're making this bet as if you're hoping a side bet hits on your blackjack hand. That's what Jameson Williams is. Sure, against Washington, there's big-play opportunity. Like I mentioned, they ceded a lot of production in the passing game to Sam Howell last week, but at the same time, Jameson Williams, go prove you can do it consistently. And in the G-tier, we'll keep it really brief. Wide receivers 34 through 40 in my rankings, aka the Flexes at the top.
T.J. Hockenson of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers going up against New England. To me, he's got the inside track to be this Bucs wide receiver two. And he has big-play upside in this offense. Baker, like I said, should be healthier out of the bye. Luke Goedeke activated off of injury reserve should be able to add to this offensive line. And the Patriots can score on the other end. I can see this being a high-scoring game environment and T.J. Hockenson catching a big touchdown just like he did a few weeks ago.
But a 35 DJ Moore going up against the New York Giants. He scored two of his three best fantasy days in his last two weeks, and he still runs all the routes for this Bears team. However, I do have my question marks. Cole Kmet coming off the concussion. Does he eat into some of these DJ Moore routes with Chase Claypool? He's looked great. Obviously won them the game last week. Maybe he becomes the number two progression in this passing game. However, with DJ Moore, this a very easy matchup. And DJ Moore simply playing well, man. If he's going to play like this, I do feel obliged to rank him as a top 35 wide receiver.
36, Troy Franklin. He played on Thursday night. Pretty simple here. Nine targets, five receptions, 40 receiving yards, and receiving touchdown. He ends up getting there in your lineup. 15 PPR points, you'll never complain. It was ugly to watch the Broncos. They end up winning 10-7 in this game. But at the end of the day, if you didn't watch football that day and you saw he scored 16 PPR points as the wide receiver 36 in my rankings, you're probably pretty damn happy.
At 37, we got Christian Watson of the Green Bay Packers. And I already mentioned it earlier on, but obviously if Matthew Stafford plays, I'm probably going to rank him a little bit lower than this. But at the same time, with no Tucker Kraft, I think we can expect more wide receiver targets for the Packers this week. We've seen him with Watson, he's had a deep completion in each of those first two games and he has four targets in both games despite a limited snap share. If Stafford doesn't play, maybe we see Christian Watson 70, 75, possibly 80-plus% of the routes. And if that were to be the case, like I said, he's got the big-play upside to win the slate on his own.
A WR 38, we have Jaylen Coker of the Carolina Panthers. And I am recording this with the expectation that T.J. Hockenson is ruled out. Of course, if T-Mac's ruled in, T-Mac would be a top 25 wide receiver. Jaylen Coker would not be making this list. But if T-Mac is out, to me it's very clear Jaylen Coker is the next man up for this team. He's a clear best separator on the Carolina offense when T.J. Hockenson's not playing. And he has the frame to operate on those in-breakers, on those YAC concepts that really made T.J. Hockenson an incredibly high weekly floor. With Jaylen Coker, we've seen him really get ramped up. First few weeks coming off the hamstring injury he suffered in preseason, we've really seen his usage go up. 79% of the routes last week. We do have reports this week that Carolina wants to make it a point of emphasis to get more designed looks for Jaylen Coker in the offense. If T.J. Hockenson's not playing, I think Jaylen Coker has big-time spike upside. And we could be looking at the guy that I was really high on coming into the season.
39. And coming after Jaylen Coker, we have Keenan Allen of the LA Chargers. And it's very simple why I'm lower on Keenan Allen. He's been under 60% of the routes in back-to-back games. And he hasn't scored higher than the wide receiver 40 in four of his last five games. And he is the final entry of our wide receiver pick 'em this week, and he is the lowest of this video. With Keenan Allen, he's crossed lower than 9.35 half-PPR points in five of his last six games. Since Quentin Johnston's broken out, we have seen less and less reliance on Keenan Allen, and the fact that he's still projected for 9.35, we are smashing the lower on it.
And finally at 40, pretty simple with Darius Slayton. I talked about his teammate with Jahan Dotson, but we really did see his involvement increase this past week. 92% of the routes and he's commanded a 23-plus% target share in back-to-back weeks. This a good matchup, and there are valuable targets to be had for Slayton operating as the vertical wide receiver for Daniel Jones. But either way, if you guys enjoyed, make sure you leave a like down below. And I mentioned my pick 'em entry over on Underdog this week. We'll be taking the Puka higher on his fantasy points. We'll be taking the Rome Odunze higher on his fantasy points. We will be taking the DeVonta Smith higher on his receiving yards and the lower on Keenan Allen's fantasy points. You put those all together, Taylor Fay my picks a day, promo code FSE. The links are in the description. But with that being said, peace out. Good luck in week 10. Secure those W's. And like I said at the top, let's secure those playoff spots.