Transcription
Well, there's no question whatsoever that power is shifting from west to east, and the relative positions of Asian powers and European powers have changed significantly. So, let me begin with one statistic. In the year 1980, the combined GMPP of the European Union was 10 times bigger than China. 10 times. Today, the European Union is about the same size as China. And by 2050, the European Union will be half the size of China. So, for the European Union to go from being 10 times bigger than China to becoming half the size of China is an indication of how power is shifting dramatically to Asia.
But in the same time, the US economy is doing very well. It is still the largest world economy. Well, the United States economy was eight times bigger than uh the Chinese economy in the year 2000. Now it is only 1.5 times bigger. So, even with the in the relativity between US and China has changed, of course. But I completely agree with you that the American economy, unlike the European economy, has done well and has grown solidly also. But if I if you ask me to make a prediction, I would say by 2050 the Chinese economy will still be bigger than the American economy.
But when we discuss Asia, you again start with China. Why don't you see any other power in Asia? Why only has to be China? Well, you're absolutely right. Actually, I believe that the future growth uh in Asia is going to come from the new CIA countries. CIA doesn't stand for Central Intelligence Agency. CIA stands for China, India and ASEAN. and China, India and ASEAN. ASEAN, by the way, is the association of Southeast Asian nations. China, India, ASEAN will be the main drivers of growth uh in Asia.
And you know, if you look at the uh you know, there are 3.5 billion people in the CIA countries. Out of this 3.5 billion people, in the year 2000, there were only 150 million people enjoying middle-class living standards in the year 2000. By 2020, the number had exploded 10 times to 1.5 billion, and by 2030 there might be 2.5 to three billion people and joined middle-class living standards in the CIA country. So you can see how dramatically the growth story is beyond China. It also covers India and Southeast Asia too.
So what do you what what are you suggesting is that the key for the growth is really a middle class which is shrinking in the west, both in the EU and the US, while in Asia is exploding? Absolutely. And of course, I mean, as of now, the United States and Europe still remain uh wealthy, affluent countries. Your living standards, I must emphasize, are still higher than those in uh Asia, and many many in Europe still many in Asia still admire uh both the United States and Europe. But of course, we can also see that the future trajectory of especially Europe is not positive at all.
And if you want me to add another statistic which every European should know, in the decade 2010 to 2020, even though the European Union's GMPP is five times bigger than ASEAN's G&P, EU GMPP is five times bigger, but in the decade 2010 to 2020, ASEAN added more to global economic growth than the European Union did. So I want to ask you, in the future, maybe not now, but in the future, do you think that Asian countries, Asian powers, not only ASEAN but also China, India will do without Europe at all? Europe will be irrelevant for you? No, we want Europe to be relevant. We want to work with Europe. We want to partner you in businesses and other things. But for this to happen, Europe has got to start to uh start to learn how to treat Asians as their equals.
I can tell you honestly, in my in my memo as Living the Asian century, which I've just published, which I hope to come and launch in Poland sometime, I describe how European diplomats were extremely condescending in talking to Asians. Oh, you poor countries, we successful wealthy European countries. Now the era of condescension is over. I mean, sadly, if you look ahead for the future of Europe, I fear a very sad future for Europe because you clearly are not making the strategic adjustments to live in a much more competitive world and develop independent autonomous strategic policies of your own. Functionally, the European Union, which used to be an independent strategic pole in the world, has become, in many ways, in many critical ways, an extension of American foreign policy. In some areas that may be good, and it's good that you have a good, it's good that you have a strong transatlantic alliance, but it's also good for Europe to develop its own autonomous strategic identity, what it stands for, and how we will work with the rest of the world. In some ways similarly as the United States, in some ways different. So, for example, we in Southeast Asia, we have very close ties with the United States. The United States invested more in us, as I said, than China, Japan, South Korea, and India combined. But we also know how to create an independent positions of of our own. So we will develop our independent policies towards China. And our policies towards China are not going to be influenced by the United States. So you see this is what you need to develop some degree of independence and sophistication in managing the new world that is coming.
It's important for us to understand the longer history of Asia, and you know, uh China has been the is the world's oldest continuous civilization, 4 to 5,000 years, and China's links with Southeast Asia go back at least 2,000 years, so there are long historical relationships between Southeast Asia and China, and by the way, also with India, and something that may surprise uh your your viewers or listeners uh is that among of of the 10 ASEAN countries, Southeast Asian countries, nine have an Indic. So, culturally, the Southeast Asian countries are closer to India than they are to China. But today, definitely uh China's influence in in Southeast Asia is much greater. In fact, the China's trade with Southeast Asia in the year 2000 was only $40 billion. But by 2020, that number uh had reached $975 billion. Can you imagine going from $40 billion in the year 2000 to $975 billion in actually in 2022? And that's amazing. An amazing. So what does it mean for you? What don't you see that that's a domination instead of a friendly relationship? No. Well, it's you know, uh unlike Europe which doesn't know how to manage its neighboring great powers, we have managed to enjoy good relations with our neighboring great powers. And you know, I'm sure you heard of Vietnam. You know, Vietnam has had a very long relationship uh with China. And and Vietnam has been, by the way, Vietnam was um occupied by China only for 1,000 years. The Vietnamese understand China. You know what they say in Vietnam? They say that to become the leader of Vietnam, you must be able to stand up to China and you must What does it mean? What does and you must be able to get along with China.
But what does it mean in practice? How how a little Singapore or much larger Vietnam, how you see the right relationship with this giant? Well, we have we have I can tell you as of now excellent relations. China's growth has enabled the ASEAN countries to also grow. Let me give you another statistic. In the year 2000, uh Japan's economy, you mentioned Japan earlier, was eight eight times bigger than ASEAN's economy. Now Japan is only 1.3 times bigger. By 2030, ASEAN will be bigger than Japan, you know. So what Europeans got to understand is that there's a culture of pragmatism in among Asian countries. We don't make loud statements. We don't give speeches. We don't claim we're going to save the world, but we just perform better than any other region in the world. So you know, there Europeans will find it difficult to accept the idea that they should now begin to learn lessons from Asia. But actually the time has come for Europeans to learn to be as pragmatic as Asian countries because if Europe if the if Europe does not become pragmatic, you it will have a very difficult future ahead for Europe.
What do you mean to be pragmatic uh from the European side vis-à-vis China? Oh, not just vis-à-vis China. It's important for Europe to work out a comprehensive long-term strategy of what are the biggest threats and opportunities for Europe over the next 10 to 20 years or 30 years. And the biggest threat to Europe is going to come from the demographic explosion in Africa. Right? In the year 1950, Africa's population was half that of Europe. Today, Africa's population is two and a half times the size of Europe. By 2100, Africa's population will be 10 times the size of Europe. So you should focus your strategic sites on how you develop Africa. And here, even though Chinese investment in Africa is creating jobs for Africans and keeping Africans in Africa, the Europeans, instead of sending a thank you note to China for saying thank you, China for investing in Africa, you are joining the United States in criticizing Chinese investment in Africa when it is against your own interest. You're being unpragmatic. You're sacrificing your own interest, which is bizarre. Why are you doing that? And Asians look at Asians look at Europe and say this 100 years ago, this continent could run the world, right? I mean, European countries, I know Poland didn't colonize any countries, but you know, the British, the Dutch, the French, uh the Belgians, they colonized the world. And today Europe can't take care of itself, which is a very, very strange. So I think what Europeans need to do is to become a bit more humble and modest and ask itself whether it can learn lessons from other parts of the world on how to manage things.
I would say it would be a huge mistake to choose India or to choose China. You should embrace all of Asia because remember Asia is still the most populous continent. It has 55% of the world's population, and Asia is becoming integrated in many ways. But if you knock on the door of China and you knock on the door of India, it'd be very difficult. You knock on the door of ASEAN, ASEAN opens the door to Asia. And you got to you got to understand the chemistry within Asia, how Asians think, how Asians operate. And this is where you'll find Southeast Asia the most congenial place for you to do business and to integrate uh with Asia. So we, by the way, are working very hard to ensure that we grow uh with the rest of Asia, and we want Europe to be part of the growth story, and you should definitely improve your ties with China. You should definitely improve your ties with India. But I would say that if you want to understand Asia as a whole, it's easier to do it through Southeast Asia because Southeast Asia is, by the way, the most diverse region on planet Earth. Out of 750 mill 700 million people, you have 250 million Muslims, 150 million Christians, 150 million Buddhists, Mahayana Buddhist, Hinayana Buddhist, you have Taoists, you have Confucianists, you have Hindus, and you have lots of communists too in Southeast Asia. So if you want to understand the chemistry of Asia, how people think, how people see the world, come to Southeast Asia.
Relations between China and India, they're not bad. They're very bad. Indeed, they are very challenging. And you see, we know that. But we also know how to work with both China and India, even though their relations are very bad. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has just come to Southeast Asia, you know. So, I think this is where you got to understand it's a very complex world. But at the same time, India wants to become a manufacturing power. Now, for India to become a manufacturing power, you know, in any field, chips, computers, washing machines, refrigerators, whatever you know where the components come from, they come from China. And even though relations between China and India are bad, trade between China and India has grown because India knows that it has to get components from China. So this is an example of Asian pragmatism. But in the same time, India banned TikTok and other Chinese applications. Absolutely. Absolutely. That's not surprising at all. And you see nothing is black and white. So you see that India is also a member with China in BRICS. Now the G7 is a sunset organization, and BRICS is a sunrise organization. That's the difference. And India and China are members of BRICS. The ASEAN doesn't just doesn't have ties with China and India. It also has very close ties with the United States of America. And one let me give you one statistic that will shock you. Okay. The Chinese economy is much bigger than ASEAN's economy. Japan's economy is still bigger than ASEAN's economy. South Korea is, you know, not not not not that big, but the Indian economy is the same size as ASEAN. Do you know that the United States of America has invested more in Southeast Asia than it has in China, Japan, South Korea, and India combined? Isn't that shocking? So where is Europe? Why is the United States of America investing more in Southeast Asia than China, Japan, South Korea, and India combined, and Europe is not here? So this is what I mean. You got to understand the complexity of Asia. We we know how to handle the giants. We we have, by the way, also very close relations with Japan. You'll be astonished. So you know, you must learn the art of being able to handle many different powers who are very different but with a sophistication and a delicacy that Europeans got to learn because you see the world in very black and white terms. The world is becoming a much more complex world. You know, I I say that the future of the world will be a 3M world, will be multi-civilizational, multi-polar, multilateral, and you know what the best multi-civilizational laboratory in the world is? ASEAN, Southeast Asia. All the major civilizations you can find in Southeast Asia, you can't find them in Europe. Europe only has one civilization, so you got to enter Europe has now got to change its mind and enter a multi-civilizational world, and and you know what the best place to learn to handle different civilizations is? Southeast Asia. So this is quite amazing how ignorant uh Europe is in general about this region.
The US-China contest will accelerate over the next 10 years, and you're absolutely right that it will affect all of us, and we have to work out our policies. So we in ASEAN have made it very clear that we want to be good friends with the United States, and we want to be good friends with China, and we won't take sides. And I think this is where Europe's got to figure out how it finds an independent policy of its own because, at the end of the day, it would be unwise for the European Union to be caught in a in a hostile relationship uh with China. You know, the New York Times just published an article describing how, surprisingly, the New York Times published an article saying how China is saving planet Earth with its investments in green technology. Now, with China working so hard to fight against climate change and with Europe working so hard to fight against climate change, your natural partner in fighting climate change, one of the most important ones, is China. So there are many areas in which China and Europe can still collaborate and work together, and you but you what you do need to have is leaders in Europe who are farsighted, who can think long-term, strategically, and have a sophisticated understanding of the world. But unfortunately, in my last one-on-one conversation with Henry Kissinger in his office in October 2022, I can tell you now that he's passed away, he was very pessimistic about the quality of mind of European leaders. He felt that they're not thinking long-term, not thinking strategically about Europe's future. So this is where I hope that the comments I'm making are intended to help Europe work out its future in a much more difficult and challenging world.