Transcription
Hi everybody. Today's Saturday, June 21st, 2026. And our dear friend >> Sunday. >> Yeah, Sunday, right? >> Sunday. Yeah, you're right. I was talking. >> Yeah, today is Sunday, June 21st. >> Actually, actually in >> Actually, it's Monday. >> 1:30 a.m. Monday. And Nema has dragged me online at 1:30 a.m. to do a show. I'm half asleep, but it's just this is >> he's he's ruthless. He's ruthless. >> Mr. Mr. Irresistible. >> Yeah. Let's talk about Mr. Irresistible, which is Donald Trump.
>> Oh boy. I I let's start with as we talk the negotiations it seems that are going on in Switzerland somehow because Iran has somehow we had this some sort of you know news that Donald Trump today was something he did something amazing you know I don't know what was the reason for that what was the necessity but that for that post on truth social you just imagine you send you you send your vice president to Switzerland, then you post Iran must immediately stop the highly paid proxies in Lebanon from causing trouble. If they don't, we will hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder. This is merely crossing the line of the first clause of MOU and that was the main point for Iranians to walk out of the you know talks or negotiations in Switzerland. Professor Mandi and what we've learned since then because there are various news coming out. Some says that Iranian walked out. Some says Iranians are still in this the talks between Iran and the United States. What do we know about what's going on in Switzerland?
>> Well, I must admit I haven't been following the news closely because I was out uh at one of these rallies tonight, but uh and before that I was at Almayadin uh in doing an interview which I did I think last night with Larry. Uh but um but well actually there's another truth social uh post of his where he where I think he's sort of threatens the uh negotiators threatens to kill them >> because he says they so yeah that's Donald Trump. Uh but um I I don't know where this is heading. uh the fact that it uh was about to fall apart and then it didn't. Maybe maybe the United States is becoming flexible. We're hearing some reports, again, this is all online and I don't know if it's true or not, but we're getting some reports that the Israelis are talking about some sort of partial pullback.
>> How credible this is or not, no idea. Um, and I have no communications with anyone in in the Iranian delegation. As I said, I don't even I don't I haven't even been following the news. What I can say is that right now the Iranians are not going to be flexible uh for for a host of reasons. One is that they have a deal and the well they have anou and it's been agreed upon and there is nothing more to negotiate about the the the substance of the deal. It's only the only thing to negotiate is about implementation how to get to where they want to get and therefore there there shouldn't be too much trouble. Uh so they're not going to they're not going to be flexible for that reason. But another reason is that is that in Iran right now there is a divide and there's a segment of Iranian society that believes that we've been too flexible and there's another segment that has no problem with the current um path or or road that this dele that the that the ne chief negotiator is pursuing. So there's been some controversy over the last 2 three days and you can see the div divide on the streets. You can see it in the media. You can see it even on Iranian national TV that there is a divide. And so I think it's that is going to make the chief negotiator even more cautious about being seen as flexible in any way or form. So even though I don't I didn't believe that he was Dr. the speaker of parliament. I didn't think that he was planning on being flexible, but I think that under these circumstances with the extra scrutiny that's um uh being uh that that we're seeing in the general public on what on on what's going on with the uh delegation, I think he's going to be extra tough. So, uh it's it's very important this meeting. Ultimately, it it was supposed to be some sort of technical meeting, but since the Israelis refused to uh end the genocide and to end the occupation of Lebanon and um the Americans have also refrained from removing u Iranian oil exports and energy exports from the sanctions regime and they've also refrained so far from handing over Iran's stolen assets. Um, this would I think is going to be a a key moment. In other words, by tomorrow we should figure out where things are heading. Are we moving back to greater tensions, to war, to siege warfare, or are we going to limp along forward? Personally, I think that Trump does even despite all the threats and despite the fact that Lindsey Graham came out and said, you know, he's going to do, you know, we're we're if the Iranians don't submit effectively, what he was implying was if Iran does not accept uh the a deal, not this deal, some alternative universe deal that there will be war. Uh I personally find it hard to believe though that the United States will move to war because the global economy is in such bad shape. And remember the straight of Hormuz is open or well it was closed briefly again but still even when it was open that the ships that are going through are very few in number. The the mines are still there. It's still uh many of the ships are not prepared to move. insurance companies uh are are not u have not uh given most of these ships insurance yet. So I find it very hard to believe well hard to imagine that Trump will um will feel comfortable to to strike because we are moving closer and closer towards uh because of the few ships that are passing through. we're moving closer and closer towards energy an energy crisis and if he engages in battle then I think the the fate of the global economy is sealed. We will have a global depression not a recession or depression. So, I find it hard to imagine that he'll go in that direction. But then again, it's Donald Trump and you you can't uh rule out anything. And if Netanyahu if he if he is unwilling or unable to reign in Netanyahu, he I mean un unable meaning that he he's unable to use his immense power and and um leverage to force Netanyahu to back down, then we're heading for troubled waters.
>> Yeah, Larry, let me read the first clause of MOU, which is important, by the way, with the case of Lebanon and with the case of what has happened today. It says Islam the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America and their allies in the current war by signing this MOU declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operation on all fronts including in Lebanon and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other and to refrain from the threat and use of force against each other and ensuring ing the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. This is basically what has happened in the last 48 and 72 hours. You see Israel crossing the line or destroying the first line and just ignoring the fact of theou and Donald Trump today doing the same. Go ahead, Larry. Your understanding of what has happened today.
>> Well, we have to go back and ask what led Trump to do his, you know, 180 degree turn last Monday. U and now I think we got the answer with even greater clarity. Uh it's it's all about oil. It's about the strategic petroleum reserve that the United States has, you know, started in 1983. It has grown to like a max capacity of u it's supposed to have 740 almost 800 million barrels in it. Uh it has been drawn down steadily. There are now only 340 million barrels left and you say well that sounds like a lot. But here's what people don't understand. the uh the caverns and these are salt caverns that are on the southern coast of the United States that were built uh specifically to store the oil. If you get below 20% of capacity that very the structural integrity of those caves is threatened. Uh and apart from the fact that you don't have uh once those are gone, you don't have any kind of reserve. you you spent your life savings. Now, why that why is that important? Because the United States military, I'm told, is basically blown through its jet fuel reserves. So, they're now they have no more reserves, per se. So, they're drawing on the global market, what's coming out of refineries as fast as it can. And uh this means the Trump administration's got a made a choice like last week. They were going to they were going to support uh the Americans that need diesel to run trucking fleets as opposed to uh the the jet fuel that runs F-35s, F-18s, F-16s, A10s, etc. Um, so the United States right now because you have to keep a 20% reserve in those ca caverns, it's not 340 million barrels, it's roughly 190 million barrels. And when you consider if if the US was refineries were to rely just on that uh you know, to take take what they could out of the the reserve u we're going to be out and you know, if if it's drawn at a rate of 16 million barrels a week then we're looking at 14 weeks uh which uh will be out uh it may be quicker than that. So, you know, that's what the United States is running up against that. They would desperately like to get control of Iran, get control of the oil. But even if they get control of the oil, there's that time distance problem comes back. The time it takes for oil to get out of the Persian Gulf to its final destination can be anywhere from three three weeks to nine weeks.
>> Yeah, I think that's related totally to this rate of form. And what is the status of this rate of form professor Mandy as we talk. Donald Trump says it's open.
>> Well again I haven't been following the news today that much but uh the straight of hormones was closed yesterday and uh but before that there were there were the number of ships that were passing through were limited. The Iranians have told the the the captains of the ships that they have to uh in order to leave the straight they have to go through a particular go uh use a particular route and they've warned that if they disobey that they'll get into trouble. So um the number of ships that pass through are limited. Yes. ever since the opening of this trade and they're not nearly enough to satisfy the global econ economic needs. Now, uh Vance went on television and was gloating. I think he said that yesterday 17 million barrels or 18 million barrels of oil were exported from the Persian Gulf. I I'm not quite sure what number that is almost all Iranian oil because yesterday Iran uh sent 10 tankers out of the straight of Homos. So most of the oil that was leaving the Persian Gulf both yesterday but and but and the day before is Iranian oil. So the Iranians are getting ahead of the game a bit and so bans by gloating he's gloating about the money that the Iranians have made but um I I don't know if this trade is open now but I if it is because the Iranians after the Israeli regime stopped the killing yes last night the Iranians early this morning they reopened the straight but uh but I my understanding is that the number of ships that will be passing through in the coming days are going to be small in number because of insurance and this is you know we've discussed this before the insurance companies and and the problems that have to do with the uh the straight of hormones and so on and then and then gradually when new ships come in to the straight of hormones and many ships are not all that interested in coming into the straight of hormones at the time for the time being especially with all the threats that Trump's Trump continues to make uh that prevents um countries in the Persian Gulf from producing new oil because if there are no ships then there's no reason to produce the oil. They they don't have any capacity to store it. So the global economic situation is going to get worse and as Larry pointed out US reserves are depleting, other strategic reserves are depleting. Um and the last couple hundred of million couple hundred million barrels of oil in the US reserves are not easily uh uh removable because of the the structure of of those because of the the structure of where they're held. So um there really isn't much left. And then the reserves of the private sector of major corporations, they too are running down. And it's not just by the way oil uh and it's of course overwhelmingly heavy oil because which is ex particularly important because diesel is key to the the global economy and diesel comes from heavy oil and the only place in the world where they have lots of heavy oil except for in the Persian Gulf is Russia and that is another sanctioned country. In fact, interesting fact is that what when Larry was saying that US strategic reserves have been emptied, they've been emptied for two reasons. One, because of the Ukraine war, thanks to Biden, and now thanks to Trump, because of the uh war with Iran. So, these two wars together have combined to to empty US reserves and put the United States in this critical situation. and the other reserves of US ally the reserves of US allies across the world they they follow suit so in during the Ukraine war they emptied their reserves to keep down the price of oil and now they've been doing the same and they've now now they've really almost nothing left so it's a it's a very bad situation and the fact that so few ships are going through the straight of hormones uh means that the US vulnerability will continue to be um high And uh and if the United States in intensifies the hostilities with Iran, well, they can close this trade or they can slow down the pace of ships passing through this trade. it it's it's it's just a horrible situation for Trump and that's why his harsh behavior right now unless there is some flexibility tonight that we're not hearing of from about yet is going to do if he if he carries through is going to do enormous damage to the United States.
>> Larry, Israel put out three conditions in order to abide or agree on the MOU between Iran and the United States. The first one is the withdrawal of all Hezbollah elements north of the Latani River and just getting to starting with the first point they're talking about the north of Leatani River. Is that going to be possible for Hezbollah to agree on these one of the first one?
>> No, not at all. And and let's emphasize there, you know, again, what's going on for the United States with the oil front limits its military decisions because right now the United States is at they're at a point um uh you know, watershed moment where they they're going to have to choose. Do they do they keep producing enough diesel fuel to run those trucks that haul, you know, food and household appliances and things that people need to, you know, from point to point to to, you know, major distributors stores like Costco or BJ's or Price Club. But uh or do they use that fuel to to to fuel do they use that oil to make jet fuel which then supports um the US combat aircraft? What what Trump has been told um and this this friend of mine who's a energy analyst he he summarized it this way. He said the strategic warning is that the United States cannot assume it can fight a major fuel intensive conflict to protect the doic domestic economy without trade-offs. Military jet fuel, commercial aviation fuel, diesel, heating oil, and marine fuel all draw from the middle distillate portion of the refined barrel. Refineries can buy us output, but they cannot instantly maximize every metal distillate product at once. The risk is not that every truck or aircraft stops at once. The risk is that a force fuel priority decision creates cascading shortages and price shocks across logistics, aviation, excuse me, agriculture, construction, and consumer supply chains. So what it's basically saying is the United States has got to make a choice. Guns or butter. Uh if we're going to fight a war, then the domestic consumers are going to be hit and hit hard uh in the United States and in Europe. um if if we come to a negotiated settlement, however, there's a way to maybe avoid some of those shocks by treating um you know, abiding by the the the specifics of that. So, this is um Trump Trump continues to exhibit very erratic behavior. He's all over the issue. You know, he claims that he talked to Iran today. Uh I I've seen no record of that other than him claiming that he's talked to the Ayatollah. Uh you know, someone has suggested that uh what Trump's staff is doing is they're they're recruiting somebody with a good Iranian accent from the United States and they're putting him on the phone with Trump. So Trump thinks he's talking to the Iranians, but not really. You know, it's letting letting him play being president.
>> All right. Who's talking to Donald Trump in Iran?
>> It's not me. I have not I have nothing to do with it. Uh I you know I think that ironically Trump is by by dragging out this whole situation Trump has brought the the United States economy to the brink. The war of course itself led to the closure of the straight of foremost obviously but after the war we had that ceasefire after 39 days when the Iranians effectively won and then we were supposed to have a ceasefire and then Netanyahu back then carpet bombed Lebanon that caused the collapse of the ceasefire and those ships that belong to the Saudis and the Emiratis and the Kuwaitis and the Bahinis and the Kataris that were supposed to go through the straight they were blocked. So, and we've had stalemates since then. So, and then Trump, of course, imposed a siege on Iranian port. So, all the during this period of time, they they've prevented the closure of this trade. And then Trump by constantly saying, "It's almost over. We're going to have a deal." He and by using the strategic reserves he prevented uh uh um consump I I think they say consumption destruction uh and so instead of the price going up and people consuming less uh the price didn't go up that much and consumption remained high. So what does that mean? That means that the the pace of consumption remaining high brings us closer and closer to a crisis. If he had not manipulated the markets for so long, the prices would have would have gradually gone higher and higher and consumption would have been reduced and this could have the crisis well it would have hurt the global economy but the crisis would be a bit further off. But he's effectively brought about a situation where people are just consuming fuel, consuming oil, consuming energy as if there's no uh cliff lying ahead. So he's made the situation worse. And uh so and now at this juncture where he was forced to do a deal because of this crisis, he's still by making these threats, making it more difficult for insurance companies to ensure ships. It's making ships decide not to come to the Persian Gulf. It's creating fear among ship owners which have who have ships in the Persian Gulf from making a move. And that's besides the Iranian government saying that we may shut down the straight or may shut may you know may slow down the the pace of ships passing through. So he's constantly shooting himself in the foot. And of course Netanyahu doesn't care about the US economy, nor did the Israelis. But I think that um this is going to have an impact on on the entire negotiation process. Let us let us assume that the negotiations don't cl collapse tonight, which is a possibility.
>> Although the fact that they I mean I I can't I can't see the news because I'm using my cell phone. If there's any breaking news, let me know. But um the fact that they're still negotiating means that that they're talking about something obviously. So it may be that there is some sort of progress. But let us assume that there is progress and that the Israeli regime begins to retreat partially and then the United States begins to hand over Iranian assets and then they remove the sanctions during the next two two months. the the crisis the energy crisis is going to get worse. So throughout the these two months Iran has more and more leverage. So the first month obviously the amount of oil that leaves and energy and helium and LNG that leaves the straight of hormones or leaves the Persian Gulf is going to be less than the consumption. So the crisis is going to get worse. And the second month, even if it gets better, it's not going to be normal. But also, Iran can if if the negotiations don't go well, they can always cause trouble. They can always tell the ships to slow down. They can always say there's a a mine out there that we failed to find or that's gone missing or, you know, they can they can slow down the ship. So the Iranians have leverage for the negotiating process as well.
>> Let let me let me just add one other thing in there that um the the relationship between Qatar and Israel is pretty extensive and Qatar uh not Qatar I mean United Arab Emirates is very extensive.
>> UAE
>> Yeah. And so with the UAE um it's let's call it a money laundering center. U I I was I received him.
>> Pardon?
>> Yes. They are the money laundering center of the world.
>> Yeah. So I received information yesterday and this this ties into Ukraine and Russia. Apparently, Zalinsk's uncle is traveling every week from Kev to Dubai with bags of cash, uh, US money that from US aid that was sent to Iran or to Ukraine. And so that money makes its way down to Dubai. It's and it's put into all the major UAE banks. So, we're talking millions of dollars every week. Um, then that money is
>> This money or is this is this new CIA money or is this from before
>> This is this is the money from USA ID as well as money uh from the Europeans. Um, right.
>> Then then that money is flowing uh it it's washed through some uh I'll call them Ponzi scheme condos, real estate deals, and then the the proceeds from those deals. So they make it look like the money that was generated from real estate sales that's then wired to Israeli banks and then from Israel that money it goes to people like uh member you know members of Congress the the biggest vocal supporters of uh of uh the Israeli war uh they're getting paid that way and they also they turned out being big supporters of the war in Ukraine. So that that's one way the money is flowing. It's also flowing, you know, it's giving Israel another source of cash. So uh the what but what has happened now over the course of the last 14 weeks is that relationship is now threatened uh because the UAE does they were counting that they they would be able to put enough oil out through Fujara the po port on the Gulf of Oman and and therefore avoid u the the weight of the go the Gulf being closed off that's gone now. So they got a real they've got a real cash cash flow problem. So uh and that's why the UAE it seems to have been you know it may be lip service it may be uh an illusion or it may be real that they went down sat down for talks uh in in tan you know on the 9th of of June so now almost two weeks ago uh to you know they're trying they're trying to keep themselves afloat and they're hoping to cut a deal with Iran that would ease that pain. The problem again the problem is UAE is so heavily compromised with Israeli Zionist firms that are operating in Dubai and in Abu Dhabi. So this is uh you know you got this corruption angle that's going on and the longer the street of Hormuz stays closed uh or they can't get normal traffic flowing uh the worse it is for the UAE.
>> Yeah, it's just so complicated. Professor Mandi, let me let me ask you with with what we've we've said so far. You describe the situation with this rate of formos. How how effectively that is putting pressure the closure the closure of this rate of form is putting pressure on the United States. How what is the calculation on the part of Iranians? Is that sufficient for Iran to put pressure on the United States then on Israelis or they're still considering the operation on Israeli soil? Some sort of sending missiles and attacking?
>> Yeah. >> Yeah. The Iranians were about to fire missiles a couple of nights ago. And if you recall, they cleared the airspace of Iran and then ultimately they decided not to do so. So,
>> The western part of you mean?
>> Yes. Yes. So I I don't know uh what the calculation is now. I think that uh when they shut the straight of Hormos and the Israelis uh immediately uh or almost immediately accepted or or carried out a ceasefire. Uh I think that shows that the situation the energy crisis is so bad that uh the Trump immediately put some sort of pressure on the Israelis. So the Iranians have said that they are prepared to uh carry out military strikes on the Israeli regime if this if if shutting down the straight of hormones is not enough. But actually, as I said earlier, they they reopened the rate of pomros after a few hours when the Israelis uh carried out the ceasefire. So, I I sort of think that the Iranians are telling the the international community and business that look, we don't want to shut the straight of Hormos. This is not our intention, but the other side is um is forcing us to. So that's why immediately after the ceasefire or hours after the ceasefire they reopened the straight, you know, in in order for Iran to be able to justify this, they have to they have to have a good reason. And I think that the Iranians intentionally open the straight of hormones as soon as the agreement was signed, contrary to what the Americans did so that they could be seen as the side that's carrying out its side of the bargain. it's implementing its obl it's carrying out its obligations and then if the other side doesn't do so that they can more easily go back to to uh restricting travel through the straight of homos. Of course Iran if it shuts the straight of hormones I don't think it's going to shut it for all shipping. It's not going to it's definitely not going to shut it for its own ships. And um Larry would know better much better than I. I don't know if the US ships are currently in place to continue um the uh the siege. Uh they probably are not far off, but uh I'm not sure if it would be easy for the Americans to uh flip the switch and and start a siege uh uh without a couple of days notice. I don't know. Maybe I'm wrong.
>> Yeah. >> Well, yeah. My understanding was that the the the so the the 20 what used to be 24-hour 7-day a week crisis action teams that were operating at McDill Air Force Base for Sentcom and uh and other at the National Military Command uh headquarters in the Pentagon and and at other locations that they've been all told to stand down. And so they're not on 24/7, which means they're not doing the kind of planning and activity that would normally accompany a planned uh military strike. So, we can say that's on hold. Um, or at least they're starting to withdraw air assets and that that they don't do that overnight because they have to plan. You know, you think if you're going to fly uh a squadron of F-35s out of that out of Jordan and fly it back to the United States, um, let's just say you got 10 aircraft. Each of those aircraft have to be refueled after about 400 miles in the air. And so they're going to need multiple refuelings just to get back to continental United States. And and so to st get ready for that, you got to preposition tankers all along that route. And they can I I think it each tanker can do one or maybe two refills on total of six planes. So really servicing 12 planes. So that's that's a pretty uh ownorous logistics trail that has to be
>> And that's a that's a that's a lot of fuel at a time when the United States is running out of jet fuel.
>> Yeah. Yeah. No, it's it's going to burn up more fuel that we don't have or the that the the assets are very short. So I don't know if that has started yet. I believe it has, you know, and when they said at least the Navy did lift the blockade. So the United States has complied or fulfilled with that. But again, you had more you had more more truth post by by uh uh Trump today, you know, threat again violating the first section because he's threatening Iran with violence and he was supposed to stop that and didn't.
>> Professor Mirandi, these three conditions by Israel they put out to be part of it seems that they're asking the United States to put them or to enact them toou or whatever comes after which is let me read the three conditions that Israelis are talking about the withdrawal of all Hezbollah elements north of the Lethania River the complete dismantling of Hezbollah's infrastructure in the area south of the Leania River granting Israel full freedom of movement and military actions to thwart and eliminate any future threats which includes ground and aerial operations. Basically they want to achieve whatever they couldn't achieve on the battlefield by using these three condition. Is there any way anybody in Iran accepting these terms?
>> No. But you know, the Israelis, if ultimately they're forced to leave, they're going to obviously do it in a way to minimize the humiliation. So they will say that, you know, we're we're withdrawing. I mean, if that if they do this, we I don't know if they will, but ultimately if Trump does force them to I mean, if we if the deal is going to be implemented, this is going to have to happen. So Trump is going to have to force is going to force them let's say to leave and then what will they do? They'll leave in stages but they won't say that we're leaving under because of Trump's orders. They'll say that, you know, we're withdrawing from this area. Uh this area is secure now. We no longer feel threatened. We'll and then they'll say, you know, we'll strike the we'll stay in the rest of the territory until whenever we deem necessary and then they'll withdraw again. Say this area is no longer of concern to us. I mean, they'll they'll they'll frame it or or they'll say that there's an unwritten let's say agreement that Hezbollah will no longer be in the south of Latan the Latani and we've destroyed all their infrastructure. I mean, if they want if they're forced to leave, they're going to make it look as as as much as possible as if they left in a from from a position of strength. That I mean that I think is is inevitable. But ultimately, the Iranians are not going to accept any any of this. Nor is Hezbollah. The Israelis have overplayed their hand. They are in bad. They're in bad position. So is the United States. And uh if they remain it'll be very costly because of the straight of Hormos but also because of Iran's uh missile capabilities. And Iran is as we speak it's bu rebuilding its uh capabilities. It's it's repairing all the under I mean it's finished now but there now I from what I've heard Iran has far more missiles than it had uh before the war. And uh they're using new technology uh better you know for uh in order to pass through air defenses. Uh they're they're developing their capabilities and they're going reviewing uh the their strikes and and and learning from their experience in the war. Remember the Iranians performed much better in this war than the 12-day war. Why? Because in the 12- day war they they for the first time they waged war with missiles and drones and air defenses and so they learned a lot about their strengths and their weaknesses. Well, they're doing the same now. So, it's it won't end well for the Israelis and I think that ultimately I think that ultimately they'll have to withdraw. I may be wrong. I mean, it it is Netanyahu and Netanyahu if if Netanyahu withdraws that's the end of his uh political career I would imagine already if if you've seen the polls today it's just his approval rating has collapsed and Israeli society overwhelmingly believes that Iran won the war. So, this is not good news for him. And if he's forced to withdraw under duress, then I think I'm I mean, I don't know Israeli politics well, but I would imagine that would be the uh uh the final straw. He I mean, that that would that would end his political career, I would assume.
>> Larry, these three conditions, Go ahead, Larry. These three conditions are so important. And what professor Mandi just said is important as well because I he said about he he described the Iranian position considering these three points by Israelis. What would be how far that they can put pressure on the United States at this current at this particular moment as the professor Mandi said 92% of Israelis believe that Iran won the war. It is a poll a new poll came out today. They by Hebrew University of Jerusalem and AAM Institute and it says 82.9% believe Israel long-term security has been weakened as a result of this war. Among Netanyahu's own right-wing voters base, 93.1% say Iran came out on top and 63.2% 2% oppose the US Iran agreement with only 12.1% in support of MOU. Larry, go ahead. And what is the leverage on the part of Israel to put pressure on the United States to accept these terms?
>> Well, can can Israel produce oil? No. So uh unless they unless they come up with a magical source of oil particular for diesel and uh as professor Morandi noted the major suppliers of that kind of heavy crude are Russia and uh Saudi Arabia then Canada, Mexico, uh Venezuela. Well, the United States is u has great friction now with um the Canadians. Canadians are dealing increasingly with China. So, uh again, Israel could try to put money and try to make threats, etc. But, but they they really don't, you know, it's it's going to be the economy that's going to rule who does what to whom, uh, you know, going forward. now and uh Israel Israel doesn't they're not in a strong position. They're dependent upon the flow of oil via Turkey and the oil coming through Turkey is is going that money is going into the pockets of Erdogan and his family. Now Pakistan has been making some inroads uh with the Turks. As I recall there was a they had another sort of summit today. I believe it was uh Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan. So they're they're trying to coordinate and this this is consistent with what Pepe and I were told by this one source that Pakistan working real in tandem or sort of as the front guy for China is is pushing this new let's call it a a re a regional military alliance of Islamic and Arab uh countries. So you wind up with Egypt, you have Turkey, Saudis, uh Iran, you Ron gets in there. Um, so that you know this is this is a more of a mid to long-term change that's coming down the pike. U the source had reported a week ago that Qatar was going to tell the United States you got to close Aluded and be out in nine months. Well, h have you seen did you see the film clip where the uh JD Vance uh the the Qatari rep walks in and and Vance tries to shake hands with him and the Qatari guy just ignores him thinking, "Oh boy, that that's significant."
>> Are you muted? Yeah, here is professor man. The foreign ministers of Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan met in Cairo to discuss regional developments and to and and review the US Iran agreement implementations and what do we know about the position of these countries coming together? We know that Pakistan is totally in favor of the agreement between Iran and the United States. And what is so strange, Professor Mirandi, I don't know if your understanding is the same. My understanding is that Al Golani is somehow better than the prime minister of Lebanon when it comes to Lebanon and understanding of the region because he says we have to he said we have to negotiate with Hezbollah as well as part of Lebanon as well. We cannot ignore them and we are not he said today we are not going to do anything militarily against Lebanon to destabilize Lebanon and this is not the case when it comes to the Lebanese prime minister and president they basically against Hezbollah
>> Well Golani has more than enough trouble as it is huge huge amounts of territory has been taken by the Israelis and uh he has he's shown don't no intent of uh to try to take it back. Also the economic situation in Syria is catastrophic and uh this it is in some areas they say it's close to starvation and also we have something something is happening in parts of Syria and that is that the Americans have been uh striking uh some senior figures in al-Qaeda and and and these and these Haki groups. And some believe that Golani is cooperating with Americans to uh to to kill some of the the his former allies in order to consolidate his own power and also to to strengthen the US uh the the Trump Golani relationship. But um he he has more than a trouble enough trouble on his hand. And the the Iraqi resistance has also warned him that if he tries to make a move towards Lebanon that they will enter Syria. And I have no doubt that if he tries to attack Lebanon, then Iranian drones and missiles will target him. If the Iranians can deal with the Americans and Israelis, they can easily deal with him. So he does not have the incentive to go into Lebanon. But he is trying to shut the border and he he has been cooperating with the Israelis and the Americans to make sure Iran cannot smuggle in uh weapons or uh food or money or anything supplies to to the resistance. That I do know. So um he is he's he he knows his he has no capability. He doesn't have an army. He doesn't have the money to even create an army. He's thanks to him and the Israelis and the Americans and Erdogan and and the the the Syrian army is destroyed. The air force is destroyed. The the uh the air defenses are destroyed. The everything is destroyed. It's just a bunch of uh uh al-Qaeda groups and which which are not even united. They are like different factions
>> And there are some parts of Syria that has has no protection and the local mafias are in charge and my Syrian friends who I don't contact my friends but when they do send me messages um they they say that security is horrible that there's a lot of uh infighting between the groups themselves or the different police groups or the different security groups because the there's no real united uh um united uh force. It's they're just different factions that uh work as a sort of coalition. It's a horrible situation right now in Syria. He's he's no in no position to project power beyond the borders of the country and the the the whole world is cheering for Hezbollah and people see Hezbollah as the only force that is the only you know in in the in that part of the world that is fighting against Israel and defending Palestinians who are Sunni and so it it won't it it won't look good for him at all if he goes beyond a certain uh you know a certain amount of obedience
>> And also I just going to say also you're not um Galani does not have uh a professional army number one and to invade Lebanon you're going to need a professional army they don't have the logistics you're not seeing miles and miles of trucks carrying fuel loading up to follow in tank columns and armored vehicles you know So Galani's basically I'm taking a pass on that. Thanks for the invite. We'll be doing other things.
>> Larry, today Ben on channel 14, he said that Lebanon, all of Lebanon should become our playground. All of Lebanon should be our target. And they told me, wait a second, there is Lebanon and there is Hezbollah. I don't accept it. I don't accept this sort of division that they're trying to make for me because they he sees all of Lebanon as the same as the way you know you need the government in Lebanon is trying to do the same by the way and it says that you know Hezbollah is not part of us you know when they're negotiating today we know they're going to Washington today Hezbollah announced that these sort of negotiations between the government in Lebanon and the United States and Israel it doesn't They're not important for us.
>> Professor Mandi and how I think the before wrapping up this session I want to here is the head of General Guani says the epic of year 2000 will be repeated if you don't leave South Lebanon voluntarily. And is that a direct message for Israelis or is somehow hoping the negotiation is it a political message or a something military is related to the military decision in Iran?
>> Asking me or
>> Mary?
>> Yeah.
>> You ask you ask me.
>> Yeah. No, I'll say yes. All of the above. you know, it is uh um it's intended to be a broad-based message. And um you know, the thing the thing the United The United States is trying to they're they're playing strip poker. They don't have any cards. Uh they've got uh you know, Iran really does hold the cards at this time. And part of, you know, there's been a lot of criticism directed at Iran for, you know, not retaliating immediately against Israel. But, you know, I think what we're seeing is Iran's playing a smart diplomatic game. They are working with uh Pakistan, working with Qatar. Again, I you know that that vi that dissing of vice president Vance by I think that was the Qatari foreign minister just you know blew him off. Um, you know that's saying something. Uh this is about a changed relationship. So the the meeting of Egypt, Turkey, Saudis and Pakistan that's not just that's not a coincidence. That's part of an organized plan that Russia and China both are backing to eliminate US hegemony from the region and to again take so these countries are neither no longer beholdened or can be blackmailed into having to adopt a particular policy because the United States is freezing their assets. I nobody's focused on it much, but uh it looks to me like the the the purchase of oil with the Chinese, that's not using petro dollars. That's using Chinese dollars.
>> Yeah, Professor Mandi, we know that the head of IAEA today was in Switzerland to talk. Iranian said, "We're not going to talk to this, you know, to the head of IA GCI, Rafael Gi." And here is the latest news from the negotiation. It seems that basically Iran said on the nuclear program of Iran and before getting there to talk about the nuclear program of Iran we have to talk about the clause number one 410 and 11. What is that? The clause number one we talk about extensively today about it the Lebanon and the threat of the United States against Iran. The number four is about Iranian frozen assets. number 10 about you know how to the United States is going to facilitate the whole process of you know receiving the frozen assets lifting the sanctions on Iranian oil sector and energy sector and the number 11 is the sanctions so before getting there there would be no negotiations on Iranian nuclear program is that the case because today as they're talking about the differences between the two sides, the basic would be let's talk about the first line then four 10 and 11 then go after Iranian nuclear program.
>> Yes, the Iranians have made that clear that until these issues are resolved, they're not going to start negotiating about the nuclear program. And what the Americans want to do is to to refrain from carrying out their obligations and then have the Iranians begin negotiating over the the second phase of the deal, meaning this the sanctions and nuclear program issue. But that's not going to work. The Iranians have been very clear about that that they're only going to negotiate over those issues that have already been agreed upon to see if the Americans are going to comply or not. If they don't comply, then they don't move on to the nuclear issue uh and the uh the the sanctions regime issue. If they do comply, then they can move on to that. So again, this is everything is stuck. We're we're we're still at uh we we haven't moved forward. The only thing that has happened as as uh Larry has rightly pointed out is that the United States have removed the the siege on the straight and that's because the Americans need all as much oil as possible to flow through the straight. And as I said, uh Vance was gloating that I don't know 17 or 18 million barrels left and this was a record. Well, almost all of that was Iranian oil. I mean, if you 10 if it was 10 Iranian tankers, I would definitely more than half of the oil that that went passed through the straits, if not all of it was Iranian oil. But he didn't want to say that. So, it's they're just desperate to get the oil out there on the market. But at the end of the day, as I said, the Iranians can slow down the flow of uh of ships through the straight. They can choose non-tanker ships to go first. They can choose many of those empty ships that bring in automobiles and other consumer goods that are empty and want to return to uh other ports to bring to take new goods. They can they can they can play with the uh flow of the of ships through the straight of Homos in a way to intensify the uh the crisis without blocking shipping. So the Americans are in a very tough position. Uh if they try to the more they threaten Iran, the more uncertainty there is there there is for insurance companies. If they don't cooperate with Iran, the less cooperative the Iranians become. Even if they don't shut the trade of hormones, they can make it h they can make it more than half shut. So it's it's a it's a difficult situation for Trump. the only way forward the only way forward is for him to implement the deal and even then we're still I mean uh Larry um has discussed this uh and and so have I uh even if there is a deal and you know I've said this earlier even if there is a deal and tonight and everything is resolved and the Israelis swiftly leave Lebanon it's not going to happen that way But even if there was and the Iranians did their maximum effort to help as many ships go through the straight of homeless as possible, we're still going to have a very bad economic crisis. It's going to hit in a few weeks from now and it's going to be longlasting. So, um, so it's going to be bad anyway, but the the more the the Trump regime harms the chances for normalization of of shipping through the straight of hormones, the deeper the crisis becomes and the longer lasting.
>> Yeah. >> Yep. Thank you. >> I agree. Yeah. >> Thank you so much. All right, my friends. Hey, >> thank you. Thank you. >> Thank you very much. >> See you tomorrow. >> See you tomorrow. It is >> It is 2:32 a.m. I don't Nema owes me something. >> Yes. >> Some some sleep. All right, my friends. Take care. Bye bye. >> See you. Bye for now. Bye.