Transcription
What happens when people demand more from leaders they see as failing to deliver, running out of patience and running high on desperation? Are parts of Asia a tinder box of protest and upheaval? When a single move can ignite change from the top down, I'm Puja Pant in Nepal. They've called it a Gen Z revolt here in this Himalayan nation. Protests against established corruption, nepotism, and the ban against social media turned deadly. Dozens killed and hundreds were hurt. The prime minister quit and the army has been deployed. And there are burning questions about the future shape of civilian rule in a country that has had its share of political turmoil since the start of the armed conflict in 1996.
For Nepal, it was an attempt to regulate social media that was the trigger. For the Philippine government, there might still be time to diffuse anger over billions of dollars poured into building projects that have disappeared. I'm one Bernal in the Philippines. Probes here by the president and Congress showed anomalies in state flood control infrastructure projects, some existing only on paper, even as perennial flooding persists. Rights groups have ramped up protests, riding on the momentum of public clamor for clean governance, but their demands have been cluttered so far, from higher funding for state universities, even to the resignation of all government officials. Outrage has been largely online, targeting those derogatorily called NEPO babies. Can this translate to tangible reforms, or will this simply be? What experts fear are performative probes that fail to exact accountability, performative or purposeful policy and push through.
Indonesia under pressure to show it is serious about leveling a playing field that many feel is far from level. I'm Chani Vadvani in Indonesia where President Prabuanto is facing his toughest challenge yet, less than a year since he took office. Mass protests broke out in August over lavish perks for lawmakers amid a sluggish economy. Controversial remarks by a number of politicians further fueled the public's anger. Now, in response, lawmakers benefits were revoked and shortly after, President Brau announced his first major cabinet shakeup. He's also urged his party members to be mindful of their words and behavior. But the crisis runs deeper than salaries. It's raising questions about the independence, legitimacy, and relevance of lawmakers in Indonesia's democracy. Indonesia's lawmakers chosen in elections last year.
Democracy in principle giving people the power to pick who leads them. Or hence the outrage in Thailand when the winner at the ballot box is not the same person that ends up leading as prime minister. I'm Sax Zombat in Thailand where we just had our third prime minister in two years now. This country has its fair share of political upheaval. A seemingly neverending cycle of democratic elections, mass protests, military coups, rinse and repeat. This time it's been a triple whammy for the powerful billionaire Shinwat family. The youngest daughter, Patton, she was never able to shake off allegations that she was too young or inexperienced. She got ousted as prime minister. Then their pertai party lost control of the government and finally their patriarch the former prime minister Tuen he's in jail. Does this mark a sea change in Thai politics or is this just same same but different?
As Japan looks yet to set to pick another new prime minister. Concerns are it's again same same and no different. I'm Isida in Japan where the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party is in the middle of another leadership change and therefore Japan is awaiting its fourth prime minister in 5 years. Voters are tired of political funding scandals, the high cost of living over tourism and for some an influx of foreign residents. Far-right populist politicians are wooing the electorate away from the establishment. And Asia's second largest economy feels as though it may be at a political pivot point.
[Music] [Applause] [Music] [Applause] [Music] [Applause] [Music] [Applause] And I'm joined by Dr. Shashi Jakuma, executive director at SJK Geo Strategic Advisory and Angela Manchini, partner and head of the global risk analysis practice for Asia-Pacific at control risks. Well, thank you for joining us this evening. Thank you for having us. Great to be here.
Now, let's pick up first because the final soundbite was from our correspondent in Japan. So, four prime ministers in 5 years before that Thailand, three prime ministers in two years for Japan and there are many reasons and you will both remind me throughout this discussion that very local reasons why each has the governance problems that it has. But in Japan's case, let's take that as a see if there any parallels. It is striking that not just the change of prime minister but the LDP the ruling party that has essentially dominated since its founding in the 1950s with very brief periods of not dominating this time whoever becomes its leader may not also become prime by its own admission because it has failed to engage with the Japanese public.
Yeah, I find it it's a very interesting time politically in Asia as we well know and I think your correspondence did a wonderful job laying that I think you know what's interesting is there is a push for political change in many of the countries the triggers for unrest or unhappiness are all different that immediate trigger but the underlying trends are similar in the sense of you know what is the unemployment rate what are the economic opportunities what is the ability especially for the next generation to actually not just live as well as their parents did but maybe you know participate politically in the case of Japan I find it interesting because that is one country that you actually do see some nimbleness with the political system so the change that's happening there is not a result of protests on the street or kind of a snap change driven by you know the youth but rather you know unhappiness at the polls and then Prime Minister Sheibba choosing to step down and then you're seeing the party potentially have its own generational change as probably most countries are need to have or are having. So I think that's an interesting one to watch because it seems quite um uh not so un uh unexpected in terms of self-driven.
Yeah, it's self-driven and it's also more controlled and I think it it you know when you look at who's actually potentially going to be leaders in the LDP and whether or not that person becomes prime minister is a question. But there are people that are younger, there are people that are more popular, not populist but also popular. And actually, if you look at the the person that's um out front, you know, 85% of the people that vote that pulled her for for her recently, it's because she has a will to make change. So, it looks to me like that would be and that would be uh Sun, the the former economics minister, right? So, what that tells me is that voters want change, but they want the right change, right? They want someone that's going to make reforms ideally in a way that's not going to also cause a lot of destruction to the country. If you can do it within the political system you have, it's so much better.
I would I would tend to agree with what Angela is saying. If you look at the sense of voter and youth and Gen Z disenfranchisement and unfortunately in some of the countries that your correspondents have covered, it has led to to violence, looting and and pillage. But we need to layer on to that fact that there are also very local and particular reasons in terms of what's happened. If you look at Nepal, the ban on on social media which was quickly quickly reversed in Indonesia some sense I think a creeping sense which has been there for some considerable amount of time that certain parliamentarians and certain people in the political elite class are out of touch or indeed flaunting their their lifestyles. This also happens a little bit in in Nepal. So we would have seen this hashtags right Nepo kids which is the elite entrenched class and their kids flaunting private jets expensive holidays overseas in Dubai. So not just a sense of youth disenfranchisement but a sense that the ruling elite class is oified captured in cronyism and patterns of behavior which are just completely out of touch with what the youth want to do. you layer on on this in certain of these these countries themselves the indicators are actually pointing to some sort some sort of middle class contractions which you have in Indonesia the youth unemployment figure for for Indonesia it's not great figures would suggest 14 15%. You look at the equivalent figure the same figure in in Bangladesh Nepal much higher actually 20 21%.
Okay. So fundamental sorry to interrupt but I'm going to sum it up because so many factors and and uh it would help if we have a structure for that. So I may take some liberties with that. So the real economic issues that have been resolved and that would include failing to provide the right kinds of jobs and therefore the right kind of hope for an economy into the future. Young people don't see a future for themselves and for the generation after that. Okay. Uh that's one and social media amplifying these lifestyles that in themselves are not an issue but set against hardship in the country and the way social media tends to portray that kind of lifestyle. It makes it problematic.
Social media is positive and accelerant as well. If you look at Nepal, I mean Telegram and Discord in particular was used to organize protest when the government moved to regulate social media because of fear about disinformation that could have been not because of self-interest but because there's a very real danger of misinformation and disinformation.
Well, yes, there absolutely was. If you look at Indonesia, for example, fueled by perceptions of corrupt or elite lifestyles, whether or not that that was true, to what degree, we can have a discussion. But if you look at some of the false news online that was purveyed on a very wellrespected Indonesian finance minister Sri Mulani alleging that she had said things through through deep fakes which actually she never never said and she was targeted and she's lost partly partly on account of that.
But what if I can jump in and add I think part of the issue with social media is of course it's the disinformation but to your point earlier it's the it's that youth want good economic opportunities. they see they have sensed I think for some time the inequality but when you have social media as you mentioned the nepoaby hashtag that it's the perception of that vast inequality and also the perception of the inability to to climb out of where they currently are so it's a combination of there aren't enough job opportunities the inequality is stark and in the perception of it is that it's getting worse and then you layer the corruption on as well because you do have a path but only if you're related to a minister as it would seem to be in some of these countries, right? So, I think it's these things all layered together that if you're in working within a system that some of these countries have where there's just no other choice to get integrated into the political system or to actually help try to drive economic growth, it's very tough. And I would add to it, unfortunately, I think the pressure is only going to get worse because we are in a situation, unfortunately, that the global economy is under some strain with all the new tariffs coming on. If you take a look at Thailand, it's only got a 2% growth, but we just now have a 19% tariff coming on from the states. So, there are increasing economic pressures. At the same time, we have AI coming in. And so, if anything, what we're hearing, of course, is that that may pressure job growth for the youth as well.
So it's easy to make demands of leaders but if you were a leader hypothetically of a South Asian country so for example Bangladesh or both have seen very large changes I think finally last year Sri Lanka is getting some grip on its situation with a leader that does seem to have political support and public support as well. Bangladesh looking ahead to elections but holding out for real change before they have those elections. What would you do if you were a leader?
I think this is a tricky situation. Finding ways to engage on not quite an equal platform, but what has seen to be a co-equal way of finding dialogue and understanding youth grieviances is actually very very important for for those countries and in a way you can say that that's actually happened in Nepal because the Gen Z movement led by this young 36-y old DJ Gurung is actually not just influential it is if reports are to be believed. The 36-year-old who former DJ. All right. Who leads who leads the uh the Gen Z movement in Nepal. Okay. Right. He actually he's the Catandu mayor. No, exactly. And he's done a few things in his life, but DJing is is one of them. I thought to thought to mention this, but apparently not just influential, but having a role in picking the new leadership. What I think is particularly interesting is that for Nepal's case where the new leaders uh is a respected former chief justice and if you look at what happened in Bangladesh a year ago, Muhammad Yunos very very respected Nobel laurate. These are people who you could say do not have a taint of being associated with the the previous regimes whether they actually have the technocratic chops to lead the well I think the jury is still out but I think it's very very important because in Bangladesh the youth also had some say in picking the the next leader I think they just want someone new maybe even untried and untested and dysayaka in Sri Lanka who's actually has pro Marxist leading leanings also makes something of his of his youth um youth appeal I think partly because they they are not seen to be attached or linked in any way to the old regime.
All right. Uh I'm afraid we have to take a break. But this is a good point to take a break. So uh Bangladesh uh the leaders the student leaders of that protest have a say because they actually have representation in the interim leadership government right now. But when we come back, let's look at what exactly young people want. Do they want new leaders that give them a chance for a better life or do they want to be part of any political leadership? There's a very big difference there and not that either is easily achieved. Stay with us. We'll let this discussion continues out of the brain.