Transcription
So, there's a war happening that no one's really talking about, and it's not actually in the Middle East.
So, tonight I want to talk about going to war. Going to war, not with China, not with Iran, but going to war with Venezuela, because it could be coming sooner than you think. Take a look at this.
Breaking news. A dramatic US-led escalation in the Caribbean. What the Navy calls the largest warship ever built along with fighter jets heading to the waters off Latin America. So, for a few months now, the US has been working on something that kind of looks a lot like a regime change in Venezuela. And this story caught my attention because as I'm getting older, I see the same story told again and again, but this time it's a lot easier for me to see through the narrative. And it's really interesting to break down the psychology of how a government sells a story and an idea to its people. So, why is the US so interested in Venezuela? Why is it happening right now? Let me explain.
The news tells us it's about democracy. It's about human rights, the war on drugs.
The Maduro regime is not the legitimate government of Venezuela. It is a narco terror cartel.
Nicolas Maduro is an indicted drug trafficker.
I announced $50 million reward for his capture.
But there is another story. The story is about oil and power and the war to stop China and Russia from getting control over the idea of what money will be in the future. And Venezuela is a very important part of this story. Venezuela happens to be a country with the biggest oil reserves on Earth, even more than Saudi Arabia.
But going to war is very unpopular. So how do you sell the idea of war to people? And there's a couple different ways that the government does this. For example, if the drug war narrative doesn't convince you cuz you're like, I don't really care about that, then maybe an economic angle will resonate better. We're doing it to fight the socialists because capitalism is clearly better, right? But if that doesn't work, maybe appealing to your patriotism and your values will. We're fighting for democracy, protecting freedom, stopping human rights abuses. Right? There's always some moral angle to sell an unpopular idea so that we can step in and fix all the wrongs in this world.
This time it's not Iraq, it's not Libya, it's Venezuela, which again is a country that happens to be sitting on more oil than anyone else on Earth. It's also a country that happens to be very closely aligned with China, Russia, and even Iran, which are all against US interests. Because keep in mind this is happening in a time when the US is losing control over strategic resources and losing control over dollar leverage. Every barrel of oil that goes to China, every shipment that bypasses the dollar effectively weakens the influence of the United States. That's what this is really about.
But the official story sounds like something you might have heard before. the president of Venezuela, Nicholas Madora's regime is corrupt. He's starving his people, destroying his economy, silencing journalists and rigging elections. And all of that is true. Venezuela has collapsed. People are hungry. Millions of people want to leave the country. It is one of the worst humanitarian crises out there right now. But the uncomfortable truth is that that's not why the US cares. If this was about human rights, we'd see the same anger toward countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt and other places. So then why aren't we told the real reason this is happening? It's because if you tell people this is about oil and controlling China's access to energy, very few people would support that. But if you say it's about saving people, then you start to feel good. It's an appeal to your morality. And Venezuela, whether it realizes it or not, is caught in the middle of a much bigger story. And that's the story I want to explain in today's video. So, with that said, let's get into it.
Hi, my name is Hri Jick. Hope you're doing well. Come for the finance and stay for the oil. Now, before I explain what's actually happening, I want to first share with you the official story. And it's the story that we're all told about. And the goal of this video is for you to just understand that a lot of things can all be true at once, but some things are more true than others. And you'll see what I mean throughout the video. So, let me start with what we're told. The official story, which is finally starting to be talked about.
The first angle is arguably the one that's going to appeal to most people's common sense values, and that's the war on drugs. The US government says Venezuela has become a hub for narot terrorism. Drug traffickers are using the country to flood the US with cocaine and fentinel. Now on paper that sounds like something we can all get behind because that would be a national security threat, right? But there's a problem because according to the DEA's own data, almost all fentinel in the US comes from Mexico, not Venezuela. And what does come through Venezuela is just a fraction of what's trafficked around the world, maybe 10% at most. In fact, you might even remember earlier this year, the president was punishing Canada for being a proxy of fentinel.
The fentinol coming through Canada is massive. The fentinol coming through Mexico is massive. So, Canada is arguably the bigger offender here. But we're told that Venezuela is the new Colombia, right? And why is that? It's because of the way it's framed. Because if you call something a drug problem, then that's a small law enforcement issue. But if you call it narot terrorism, then that's a pretense for a war. And once you declare a war, you do not need approval from Congress. You don't need evidence. you can just go to war.
On inauguration day, President Trump signed an executive order paving the way to label drug cartels as foreign [music] terrorist organizations. So, it's very important that the first step of any story like this one is that you have to reclassify the threat to a group of terrorists, not criminals, because that gives the US legal and political cover to launch operations in Venezuela and even allow drone strikes, which the US has also been doing. So, step one, always the same. Create a boogeyman, call it a threat, and get the public to support the idea that this is about morality. It's the right thing to do, right?
Okay. But maybe some of us don't really care all that much about the drug problem because it doesn't really personally affect us. So, who cares? And that's why there's another narrative that we're told about, and that's the narrative of socialism. This is the part of the story that says Venezuela is living proof that socialism could never work. The country collapsed because of corruption and bad planning and government control. And that is true. Venezuela has been through one of the worst economies in modern history. Their hyperinflation has destroyed anyone who's tried to save money. Their currency has become worthless. Millions of people have left the country. And yes, that happened under a corrupt socialist government. But here's the part I think less people know about. Because while it is true that socialism and corruption played a role in it, it is also true that the US never really wanted Venezuela to succeed because sanctions made by the US made everything a lot worse. Over the years, the US has imposed more than 150 separate sanctions on Venezuela. It did things like block its ability to trade with other countries. The US did not want it to sell oil and it did not want it to access global markets. By 2020, Venezuela's GDP went down by about 30%. Which is pretty much catastrophic. Now, while all of that was happening, the media was also showing us videos of empty grocery shelves and starving families as proof that socialism has failed and they need to be rescued. But it's also left out that those same families couldn't import food or medicine because US restrictions were there. So yes, it is true the Venezuelan government created their own crisis, but the sanctions made sure that they didn't have the tools to recover, but it didn't really matter, right? Because the story was so effective because I think it fits perfectly into the story that most Americans kind of already believe, which is capitalism is freedom and that countries that reject our system are sort of destined to fail. It's a really powerful psychological technique that reinforces that we were right all along. So when I hear politicians say we got to help Venezuela, it sort of selfservingly a way of saying we got to save them from themselves. Again, it reinforces this idea that there's only one model left standing that could ever work, which is of course our own.
Now let's say you're like, "Okay, I don't really care though about any of this. not the economics, not about the drugs part, none of that really concerns me. Well, that's fine because there's a third narrative that's going to convince anyone who's left. And here's the third narrative. This is the one that's arguably the most powerful of all because it is the simplest. Now, before I explain it, here is something I've been personally doing to stack SATs while this plays out with the Gemini credit card, the sponsor of this segment, and it's a card I've been using for a while now. All opinions are my own, and they were not influenced by Gemini. I use it like any other regular credit card for gas, groceries, and travel, but I earn Bitcoin every time I use it. It has no annual fee, and you can see the rates and fees in the description down below for more info, but you get up to 4% back in over 50 cryptocurrencies instantly, and you can choose which one you want. Personally, I have mine set to Bitcoin, but that's 4% on gas, transit, and ride share, 3% on dining, 2% on groceries, and 1% for everything else. It's a Mastercard World Elite. I've used it internationally with no problems and every time I use it, it adds Bitcoin to my portfolio. The best part is you're investing as you spend. In fact, according to Gemini, card holders who earned and held their Bitcoin for 1 year saw an average appreciation of 279%. Those are not your typical credit card points. So, if you're interested, click the link in the description down below or go to gemini.com/andre to get $200 in Bitcoin when you spend 3,000 in your first 90 days. Thank you, Gemini, for sponsoring this segment. And now, let's get back to it.
So here is the most powerful narrative of the three. [snorts] It's the one that appeals to your morality and values not just as an American but as a human being. The value of freedom and democracy. This is the part of the story that says Venezuela is not just a failed economy. It's a dictatorship and we need to fight for democracy. We need to stand up for people's freedom and their right to vote and the right to live without oppression. It's the kind of story that makes you feel good and noble to support. And that's partially because there's truth to it. Nicholas Maduro has consolidated power. The leaders who opposed him have been arrested. Protesters have been crushed. Elections have been heavily controlled. And there is a long, long history of corruption. Those things are all very real. But here's what's also real. The United States doesn't care about any of that. When it happens to countries that support its interests, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, none of those are democracies, but they are allies. We don't call them dictatorships. We just call them partners. It's very selective in how it goes about it. It's about who's allowed to have power and who's allowed to sell their oil and to whom. Because when a country like Venezuela teams up with countries like China or Russia, then all of the sudden their elections start to become really important for some reason. All of the sudden human rights become a priority and there's an urgency to fix the problem. It's the same pattern we've seen again and again. Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, even Syria. And I remember noticing this first back in like 2008.
The more victories you amass, the easier the next victory becomes. The first victory in Afghanistan makes the second victory in Iraq that much easier. The second victory in Iraq will make the third victory that much easier, too.
Now, looking back at it, it's so obvious how the same story just keeps repeating. The invasion of Iraq, for example, was sold to us partially under the guise of freedom and democracy. Libya, same thing. It was about protecting people from Gaddafi, but it turned into another power vacuum. Then Syria, Afghanistan, which was supposed to end terrorism and rebuild democracy. Every one of these conflicts started with the same premise, doing the right moral thing. And every time the results always the same, instability and another country left in ruins. More immigration and refugees coming to the US to seek asylum. So the point is to sell a story to as many people as possible. There have to be multiple appeals to value in order to convince someone that going to war is a good idea.
So then the question is, if all of those narratives are what they want us to think, what's the real reason then? And the real reason is the same thing I've been mentioning in all my videos. It's about getting control over resources, holding on to influence and keeping oil out of China's hands and sort of reminding the rest of the world, even if the US can't control everything anymore, it can still punish those who step out of line. So, let me explain what I mean by this because it's both complex and very, very simple. And here's the simple explanation.
How about we're buying oil from Venezuela? When I left, Venezuela was ready to collapse. We would have taken it over. We would have gotten all that oil. It would have been right next door. Obviously, it's always been about oil, but it's also something bigger. It's about influence over the world. It's control of who gets to decide the price of oil and the price and the strength of a currency and eventually the balance of world power. Now, Venezuela again sits on the biggest proven oil reserves in the world, roughly 300 billion barrels, more than Saudi Arabia, more than Iran, more than anyone. And that's what makes it so valuable and so important. For decades, the US has relied on this cheap energy and the dominance of the US dollar to settle these oil transactions and it helped reinforce that system. That's where the term petro dollar comes from. Every barrel traded through this petrodollar system has strengthened America's position. But over the last few years, I think we've seen the acceleration of this sort of crack. China and Russia, for example, have been building their own network and teaming up so that they could bypass the dollar. That's why we keep hearing about ddollarization and bricks expansion. And while all of this is happening, the US was sanctioning Venezuelan oil. So, China was like, "Hey, we'll help you out, right? We'll lend you the money." China becomes Venezuela's biggest creditor. So far, it has lent at least $60 billion to keep its economy alive, at least that we know of publicly. And in return, China got long-term access to that oil. So every barrel Venezuela has strengthens China's energy security. It weakens US leverage. That's why when the two presidents met recently, Xi didn't even look like he needed or wanted to be there. That's a position of power. That's a problem. It's not necessarily that Venezuela is corrupt or its economy is bad or that they mistreat their people. Regardless if those things are true or not, when you combine that with what's happening around the world with Saudi Arabia joining bricks and Russia weaponizing its energy exports and China making oil deals and yuan backed by gold, the US sort of watching its influence in the world slowly disappear. That's really scary for a country whose global power has been built on the ability to control the flow of that energy and the value of money.
Now I did say though at the start of this part that the real answer was was both complicated and very very simple. So that was the simple explanation but I also think there's a slightly more complicated nuanced answer for why all of this is sort of happening. So that was a criticism of one of American America's most powerful allies. Now, I'm not saying that that is the reason the US has a bounty on Venezuela's president, which it does, but I think it's one of many powerful incentives that make this story what it is. And in a way, the story is sort of about what happens in the modern day to a country that defies very powerful interests. And what's even more interesting is how the US is going about this because we're not seeing troops on the ground. The US doesn't need to invade anyone. It just has to cut them off. For some countries, that works. Like in the case of Venezuela. And for some countries, it doesn't. Countries like Russia and China. They're just too big and too independent at this point. But by leaving Venezuela out of the global banking system, the US made it almost impossible for the country to trade and to ship oil or even buy parts for its infrastructure. Insurance companies don't want to touch them. Ships avoid their ports. So, yeah, of course, their economy is going to collapse into corruption. We're like, see, you guys need freedom and capitalism. But I think there's an irony to all of this, which is the harder the US squeezes, the more Venezuela turns to countries like China and Russia and Iran for help. That's how new alliances are created here. It's not cuz they share the same values. It's because the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Every time the US pushes someone out of the dollar system, that country joins a long list of countries that are like, "Yo, join the club." Right? So that's exactly what we're watching right now. It's the creation of a new energy/monetary system that runs without the US in the middle of it. Saudi Arabia is joining bricks. China signing oil deals in yuan backed by gold. Now Russia's trading energy through its own payment networks. Venezuela sort of helping energize that system by shipping oil to China outside the dollar. All of it over time, I think, contributes to this chart, the slow erosion of US dollar leverage. And once you lose control of that, you lose control of everything. And every time something like this happens, the story is always kind of the same, right? It becomes an appeal to your moral values, whatever they may be, to justify a conflict that resets this game.
Now, if you made it this far, here's my personal thoughts. I understand that it's really easy for me to be an armchair critic of geopolitics. I can't even begin to understand what it takes to run a country, let alone a superpower. Being a leader is hard, and making those decisions is very hard. And as a completely irrelevant creator that's not even in the top 500 on a particular social media platform, I'm not here to tell you whether any of this is good or bad. That's way beyond my pay grade. But if I had to guess, I think we're going to see more and more of these types of conflicts. Whether or not we declare them as a war or not, I think we'll see more of them. My goal is just to try to understand what's happening to the world generally and directionally speaking, so that I can critically think about these things for myself, and I hope it's helped you do that, too. As always, I hope you have a wonderful rest of your day. Smash the like button, subscribe if you haven't already. I'd love to see you back here next week. I'll see you soon. Bye-bye.