Transcription
Hey everybody, Kimosabi here giving you a little update now that we have some price movement. Uh, no matter which price which way price is going, there's always an opportunity somewhere.
Wanted to pull up the Ichimoku cloud on the weekly chart here. I was checking this out this past week and just looked historically at the when when it was time to buy and when it was time to sell. And right now we're getting a baseline signal line cross. I forget the names of them. I don't really uh trade Elliot trade the Ichimoku cloud uh religiously, but I do know how it works. Uh but historically, just looking at it, we're about to get a cross here. And what happened the last time we got the signal cross or the blue line crossed below the red line, we had the bottom was in at 74K. We're about to have the the blue line cross below the red line again as price is moving down. So that could be that could mark a bottom again. Uh we could look back at the previous iteration of that. Your cross came right there. Blue line crosses below the red line. That was your 49k low. That happened. Yeah, right. That was the same week that happened. And we'll keep on glancing back at the chart here. This was the 20 25K low. blue line crossed below the red line. That marked your low. So, it's just data. It doesn't guarantee anything, but it seems to be repeating over and over. Uh we're still above the cloud. So, technically, at a glance, this thing is still bullish. Depending on how you look at it, it could be extremely bullish or the top is in. Um it definitely can go either way. I can make an argument for both. Um, I'm still looking up because of the trend. You do have a higher high and we're looking for a higher low.
Um, let me turn off the Ichimoku cloud now that I got that out of the way. But very interesting. You could back test this yourself on the weekly chart with the Ichimoku cloud. Just normal settings. I don't do any crazy settings on there. Just keep it standard. U, but yeah, about to cross there. Check what happened the previous times that uh that crossed. It did mark bottoms. So, got the Jimokco cloud off. And like I was saying, this is higher highs and higher lows going on from there to there. Your higher low should come in around here on a weekly basis and probably just need to grab liquidity. But previously, the previous iteration of price, we're to draw a box around that and price fell below it. You know, basically the same amount below it. It's just a range from another range. And then kind of doing a similar thing here. The range is a little tighter. And now breaking below the range could potentially get you back to the previous supports here. 93,000. That would take your liquidity right there. It is an area that kind of makes sense around 93,000. And if we zoom into the daily, we can see that that is a likely area for a reaccumulation. This is going to be your spring if it is a reaccumulation formation, which does make sense. It's it's doing the same thing that this is doing. So the angle is pretty similar. If you were to just take a trend line, put it across and you can see you put that to that high, the correction is kind of coming similarly and the rallies kind of they go up similarly in the in a similar angle. When you do have a rally, you know, you have it up and down and the market keeps doing this up and down. So, we'll take it down to the daily chart. here and show you what I was talking about with regards to the range. We're to redraw this box. Lastly, break down below that target 95 potentially 93. Yeah, 93,5 whatever that is. 531. So yeah, that would get you down to these previous little supports, these supports. That is technically where your support is. This is a very common trade setup that I see where price comes down. You did make a higher high, comes back down to previous support. That is your buy setup. Uh we'll see if it plays out or not or if it even gets that low. Um, I do think it probably goes lower than where it's currently at. And that's based upon this range and your range break of there. And this is how kind of a spring would happen if you have your range that high. Break below the range. Your target should be there. So, you're like halfway down. So, this should come down a little bit more.
A pattern that may be happening here. You could draw it with Elliot wave or however you want, but you're just matching the patterns. You're coming down one, two, three, maybe four and five, something like that. And then from the top, you just have an ABC, something like that. I've turned the volume on the bottom here. This has already kind of met my criteria for a spring as far as how high the volume went. Usually, you'll see the initial selling climax give you a volume spike like that. You'll have a secondary test on lower volume and up thrust and then your spring phase. The volume is not quite as much as previously. So, this can make a low right here and we're ready to rip. How do you determine that? Well, it's it it takes time, but essentially it's kind of similar to a trend break. Break that trend line, you're good to go. Or the way I normally look at it is get a higher high close, buy the higher low, and look for a subsequent higher high. But it would have to do it from here. Um, did we make it down far enough? Let's take a measurement and see. Remove this stuff and do a trend based fib extension from the high. Should we do closing price? Let's do regular price. This is going down there. Let's just see where that ends up. The 100 fib extension makes it to 956. That would be an area of interest. And if I turn it into linear scale, the 100 fib extension makes it down to 93,900, which is an area that I'm definitely looking at. Definitely interested in 93,900. And that would get you all these liquidities. Looks like a potentially a wave two, you know, Elliot wave theory. If this is all the wave one, which it does count pretty well as five waves up here and that AB C of some sort, maybe gets down to liquidity, maybe not. There's your wave two and wave three is about to go. But really, it's dependent on trend. If the trend is down, it's down. There's nothing you can do about it. Um, from a trend standpoint, currently the weekly is still making higher highs and higher lows. We will see if the weekly does close down below the previous weekly low. If so, then you do have a sell setup. You have an argument for a sell setup at liquidity, probably up at 118 or something like that. So maybe you come back up here, grab liquidity, and then continue flushing down. Uh but if you don't close the weekly on Sunday, if you don't close down here, that is a spring. That's a very nice spring. It'll just be a wick and then the buy setup comes on the weekly. It comes on a back test of that wick probably at this previous support at 10 104. 104 would probably be the buy setup on a weekly chart. But in order for that to happen, this has to bottom and then close the weekly back up probably at 110 something like that. maybe 108 closes above 108 and then you have this decent wick uh and then the following week you fill in half that wick that would be your buy setup. But alternatively, if the weekly candle closes, you know, under say under 105 or something like that, you do have a lower low and then your your lower high would come into play. Um the lower high would come on a weekly would come with a daily swing high and then the daily will start to turn down and that'll mark your weekly high.
I do find it interesting and you know it's something that I had mentioned back in July or August in in the slice group when I was kind of explaining my thoughts on this range when we were playing around here how the end of cycle is you know it's it's basically coming October November the majority of participants are are looking for from around that area they're looking for a popup and I'm going to sell into the the move up. And if everybody's saying that, then everybody's looking to sell. And the market makers in Wales or whoever's running the market could be banks for all I know. Um they're they're not going to want people selling as they're trying to push price up. They want to be selling. They want you to be buying. So the only logical thing would be well we'll hold price down until everybody sells their end of cycle and then we'll take it up. So, if everybody thinks the end of the cycle happens right on time on October 6th, just as it was it was timed out to be, um maybe it maybe it is going to play exactly like the previous cycles. But from a liquidity standpoint, it just seems like you're building liquidity here. You're taking those orders, flushing them down to the lower orders. And now a little shake out for reaccumulation and move back up. How long would the reaccumulation take if this is the low or if we're working at a low here? Uh could take months. You could chop back around in here and then this becomes a big diamond pattern continuation for later. But whichever low is is made here, assuming this liquidity gets taken here at 97,000, maybe down to 93,000. Whatever low is made there, that should be the low for quite some time because if you break down below that, you're targeting next liquidity down at 83, 82, and most likely 74. So, if this comes down here, makes a bottom, bounces back up, you don't want to see that revisited um because it's likely looking for lower liquidity. And you could see the I kind of was updating in in slice about this as this was coming down. You took liquidity. I bought there, took half profits there, then got stopped out for the rest, but then said, "Well, we've got a I got stopped out of it." And I'm like, "Well, we still do have a lower low, lower high, getting ready for a lower high going on." Um, but any break below that, you're targeting next liquidity. And you did >> just today breaking below that. Actually, it was 105. That was the one I didn't want to see break. I said as soon as 105 breaks, you're targeting the 103 liquidity. And if you keep pushing below that, you're probably looking at the 97 98 liquidity. And we're almost there. This is technically support. You can call it support. I see it as liquidity and likely to get taken out, but it doesn't have to. It certainly doesn't have to. These these legs here, they measure pretty close. They're not quite there, but doesn't have to make it all the way.
All right, speaking of matching patterns, let's match some legs here. This one, I was pretty close on matching this in real time. Um, expected one more little hit up. I didn't like the little liquidity grab that was made there. I did say it's likely going to be a sell. Uh, it did end up being a better sell than I thought. I thought sell it down to maybe this liquidity eventually, but it ended up being a better sell setup than I thought. But if you take those those legs there, you match those. And looking at a closing basis, this does match this pretty well. on a closing basis, you can match that little thing with this little thing right here. So that means we're working on this leg here. So in a daily chart, you could probably get down to a 4 hour. We may be chopping out a low just like this down here. Some kind of reaccumulation right here. There's your spring back test and then start breaking up, find support, and maybe by Sunday it'll close back up 108. And that would that would be a real good sign of a spring. So watch for that pattern to kind of repeat over the next few days. Don't have to rush to get into a position. Right now there's not really a long trade setup just yet. You want to try to knife catch. I think that's what many have been trying to do all the way down here when you don't really have a buy setup. You are in a downtrend. So in order for this to be a buy setup, technically you want a higher high. buy the higher low. You don't have to rush into position. You don't have to try to quote unquote nail the bottom. I think a lot of traders get burned um trying to catch a falling knife, nail the bottom. I personally would like to nail the bottoms. I just know it's not realistic. Um, so I I stick to what I know what has kept me in the game for a long time, which is the setup, the process. uh looking at trend. So you do have a lower low still and that you know your lower here. That's your lower low. This ends up being your lower high. Now you're working on a lower low. So you are in a downtrend until you're not. So the way I look at it is there's your buy setup or let this chop around a little bit. Breaks down makes a higher high than there. There's your buy setup here. Take it up.
So, my basic takeaways from from all the information here is Bitcoin's down but not out. Uh I don't think the top is in. It's not just a gut feeling or whatever. I just I see too much too much bullish stuff going on with regards to the charts. But once the weekly does make a lower low, if it does close a lower low, I'm on guard for a lower high for sure. And if price does bounce and I get a daily buy setup, this is certainly a take profit and then look for potential other buy setup if it wants to give it to me and then take it up until the weekly candles start closing higher highs and higher lows thereafter, which they're they're still closing higher highs and higher lows. Um, but if it does close a lower low, then it has to close a higher high to then get the higher low, if that makes sense. But maybe we'll be able to track that in real time. I certainly will be doing that on Slice, but um on YouTube and my videos have been kind of few and far between just because it's just choppy and I had too many patterns to to say which way this thing was going. Um, I was hoping for a reaccumulation to happen here. didn't get it. Came down and is breaking the lows. It needed that liquidity and it it invalidated my reaccumulation idea here cuz ultimately the corrections happen with time or with price. So, either price was going to chop sideways and make everybody bored or it was going to flush everybody out or anybody who's trying to be long. Um, but yeah, don't be long when the trend is down and wait for the proper buy setup. So, hope that helps. Um, ask your questions. Hopefully, I'll start making videos a little more often. I think it's pretty soon here. It's going to be time to go to work. We're going to get some work done. Um, as soon as we get the buy set up, I think this thing is just going to keep keep going and people are going to be looking for entries, not understanding how to get into the market. So, I'll try to help you as much as I can when I see the uh see the setups lining up. But uh yeah, until then, keep them stops tight and have a good night.