สหรัฐฯปิดล้อมฮอร์มุซเบ็ดเสร็จ ทรัมป์กลับลำยกเลิกแผนเก็บค่าผ่าทาง 20% (ภาณุรัช ดำรงไทย)

Hello, Business Tomorrow Live, The Trader KP. On the morning of July 15th, follow the situation in the Middle East, where US attacks on Iran continue. This is the fourth consecutive day of heavy, continuous attacks. President Donald Trump stated that the attacks will continue until he orders them to stop. The White House also announced that CENTCOM, the US Central Command, has begun the fourth round of attacks, which will continue for many days to come. The scope of targets has been expanded, and there may be a return to attacking the interior of Iran, similar to the period before the ceasefire agreement. Iran has reported explosions in several southern areas, including islands and areas near the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC stated that they have retaliated by continuously attacking US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan.

Another issue is the Strait of Hormuz. The US announced that naval blockades of Iranian ports have been completed. However, what has changed is the announcement of the cancellation of fees. Previously, President [Name not clearly stated, likely referring to a previous administration's policy] had stated that the US would act as a guardian, protecting security in the Strait of Hormuz and charging a 20% transit fee. This fee has now been canceled. It was also announced that discussions have been held with Arab nations, and they have agreed to cancel the fee. Instead, Arab nations, or nations transiting this area, will invest in the United States. This will create jobs and generate income for the US in another way. Meanwhile, US Energy Secretary [Name not clearly stated, likely referring to Rick Perry based on context] stated that the US military is a crucial factor in ensuring the continued transportation of oil and gas from the Arabian Gulf. Regardless of the situation with Iran, America must ensure the world that energy exports from the Persian Gulf will not be disrupted. The more the US can reduce Iran's military capabilities, the more effective it will be in securing energy routes. This is what the US insists on: ensuring that global energy transport routes are not disrupted. The blockade will only target Iran and ships related to Iran; other ships can still pass through. However, the IRGC continues to insist that Iran alone will control and manage the Strait of Hormuz area, both now and in the future. The turmoil in the Middle East, in Iran, and in the crucial energy transport route of the Strait of Hormuz has caused oil prices to surge by more than 10% in the past 2-3 days. Last night, oil prices rose to approximately $87 for the WTI market in America, and are now at $80. The rise in oil prices again has made the world worry once more about whether an energy crisis will return, and whether inflation will return. After prices fell significantly in the past month since the MOU, it now seems the MOU has been overlooked, and war has returned. What will be the direction of global energy? Will Thailand face a new energy crisis? Today, we will discuss this with an energy expert, Mr. Panurat Damrongthai, Chairman of the Working Group on Energy Shortage Response and Adaptation for Energy Security, Ministry of Energy. Hello, P' Pook. Hello, Nong Guitar. Hello, everyone. Hello, P' Pook. The situation in the Middle East has become tense again, and oil prices have soared to $87. Does the situation in the global market show signs of a crisis similar to what we faced a few months ago? Actually, we have to go back to 2-3 months ago when we always discussed this, Nong Guitar. It's not about the news. In reality, to see if global supply is truly coming out, meaning it's leaving the gulf and leaving the wells. This is a statement, like news. When we see that things might calm down, it's good news. And for a period, there was a release of ships stuck in the gulf, which temporarily reduced global supply, but not permanently. Even without war news, global supply is still significantly reduced. Therefore, if we talk about supply, if global demand remains normal, although it might have decreased slightly, if global supply is still significantly reduced, prices will definitely be driven up. If you ask if prices have a trend, I can't say if they will rise quickly, but they are unlikely to go lower than this, due to the news and the actual supply from the Middle East not being able to come out yet. So, crude oil prices first, global crude oil prices, are not really coming out. Refined oil prices, we'll discuss later. But regarding crude oil prices, will they fall below $70? It's likely difficult. But could they go up to $100 or $120 like during the intense war a few months ago? It's highly possible. I have to speak from experience. Why, Nong Guitar? The main reasons, based on fundamentals, are: First, at that time, we knew nothing. We only knew there was a supply shock. Those who needed oil rushed to order it beforehand because they were afraid. So, everyone ordered. But at that time, why did prices not actually go up higher? It's because the Strategic Petroleum Reserve of OECD countries released over 400-500 million barrels, a very large amount, especially in America. As you saw on my Facebook, Nong Guitar, that's the figure of America's underground oil reserves, called STCAR. I'll explain it later. It's one of the projects I think Thailand should... This graph, can you see it? The level of crude oil stored in America is as low as in 1983, when usage was not as much as today. Now, with only over 300 million barrels left in the system, it's almost at rock bottom. Because in the salt caverns, there's pressure. If the volume is low, the pressure might not be enough to push it out. It can't be zero. Simply put, if there's a crisis like this... I'll explain further what I'm afraid of. So, if you ask if it's possible to go up, it's highly possible. Why? Because if you remember the story of the former CEO of MWTH, he said there would be an "oil cliff," where people realize too late that they can't find it and scramble for it. We'll explain this later. But at that time, we were shocked by the oil prices. Last month, we were happy. Now, we are shocked again. But it's a shock mixed with what, Nong Guitar? A shock mixed with, "Oh, the reserves in China's oil storage are gone, and America's is gone too." This will cause great shock. I'm afraid of panic buying. Yes, P'. Now, if we look at the supply side directly, the supply side first. The Strait of Hormuz is closed again. And America has imposed another layer of blockade. This time, America says it will only blockade Iranian ships, and the rest can pass normally. But Iran says they must pass through routes designated by Iran, otherwise they won't allow passage. So, there is still disruption in the Strait of Hormuz area in the Persian Gulf. P' Pook, how do you see this affecting global oil supply? Let's talk about the news first, the supply figures. The news is that Uncle Trump said not to worry, everyone can find it, I'll escort them. Iran says, "No, I'll shoot you, I won't let you out." Both sides will shoot at the opposing ships. I don't know if America can actually escort ships that want to come out. If someone shoots, what will you do? I really don't know. But if we talk about the gulf... I have the figures here. In June, there was a recovery, meaning total exports increased by about 6 million barrels per day. Crude oil exports increased from 10 to 16 from 24. Roughly, all of this oil, about 20-24, came out. But it went to Yanbu, it went to Fujairah, it came out at +-7. Currently, even last month, when the release came out, it was still below about 9 million. So, actually, 9 million is still missing. Now, if we say it goes back to a complete blockade, a complete blockade for both sides, it will be another 10 million missing. So, it will go back to 20 million missing. Ships that have already left are lucky. What will happen? Nong Guitar, just think about it. Let's go step by step. Let me explain the system of getting crude oil out, refining it, and turning it into oil. What is it like, Nong Guitar? It's like cars running on the road. Like cars running on Sukhumvit Road, going on and on, with red lights and green lights. Suppose there's an accident, boom! It can't be cleared for a day, and the cars that are stuck... Do you understand? The oil system is the same. The oil system is like cars. It has to flow, stop sometimes, flow, stop sometimes. What is it? Oil comes out of the wells into tanks. Tanks are loaded onto ships. Ships travel. When they arrive, each country, especially Thailand, Nong Guitar. Ships bring crude oil to tanks. Tanks have 6% of the total usage, roughly 22 days of crude oil. The country's system, by law, but in reality, it's more than 22 days. Refined oil has about 3 days in the system, according to the law. So, those 3 days are a certain amount. But Nong Guitar, think about the system getting stuck. What does it disrupt? When one ship doesn't come to deliver, but the domestic supply... there must be reserve oil for refining. The best is to refine it as it comes in, and as it goes out. It's a system like this. When something gets stuck, everything gets stuck. It becomes a chain reaction. So, what happens? The reserve system of Thailand, which is not more than 22 days according to law, causes the crude oil system that cannot come out to be disrupted. That's why I say what's scary is... There's no news. Confirm this for me, Nong Guitar. There's only news that ships in the Strait of Hormuz are coming out. Why did the price drop? Let's be logical, as I said. Nong Guitar, have you ever ordered goods from the gulf? Not counting Yanbu and Fujairah, because we know they can come out. Three months ago, we ordered, saying it would be delivered, but we didn't know when. Nong Guitar had to find oil from America, Venezuela, Angola, to be delivered on a specific schedule. Then, one day, the gulf opens up. The ships that were supposed to deliver, and the ships we ordered, might overlap. All refineries in the world, Singapore, Thailand, know that it will overlap. We don't really want it, right? Because we don't have storage space. So, the price dropped temporarily. But if, suppose, all ships from the gulf can come out, and new ships haven't gone to pick up the oil yet, it will create a gap for another month. This is where the problem occurs. What about the ships that are stuck now? They thought they could come out, but they can't. Or maybe a refinery says, "America, I'm stopping orders." The gulf is about to open up. Oh, two days, less than a week, it's back again. Will Nong Guitar order from America, or will Nong Guitar get oil from the gulf? They changed their minds again, see? So, for the system, look at this. What does it mean for the gulf to be normal? Not news. Look at this news: a huge number of ships outside the gulf are going to pick up and leave. That's reassuring. But we don't have that news. We only have news that ships, and only a part of them, not all of them, are leaving the gulf. There's no news confirming for me that new, empty ships are going to pick up new oil at the port. This is scary. Yes, it's scarier than whether ships can leave the Strait of Hormuz or not. It depends on whether the ships that leave, or empty ships, can pick up oil again, right? The oil system is not flowing. It's disrupted and congested. Another point, P' Pook. Besides the Hormuz route, people are now talking about Iran's new card: the Red Sea. It's another transport route. How worried are you about the Red Sea area? How important is it for energy transport? If it's closed, what will happen? To speak frankly, I'm extremely worried. More worried than Hormuz. Hormuz, you can't guess. But the problem is, if the Houthi rebels close something... there are two routes. Yanbu is almost in the middle of the Red Sea. The Red Sea is between Somalia, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia. It's long. There are two exits: 1. Through the Suez Canal to Europe. 2. Through Bab el-Mandeb. Think about it. If the Houthis close Bab el-Mandeb... I understand they probably won't close the Suez Canal because it's in Egypt. But if they can close Bab el-Mandeb, what does it mean? It means Saudi Arabia can still send the same amount, but they have to send it to Europe. Who would be crazy enough to go around Europe and come back? It's necessary to pass through Bab el-Mandeb. The problem is, Europe might change its route. So, Iraq might send 5 million to Yanbu as before. But instead of half going to Asia and half to Europe, suppose they have to send more to Europe. Europe might buy more from Yanbu. But what about the rest of the world? Asia, Nong Guitar, look at the map. If they don't get it from Yanbu, where else can they get it? There's no oil around. They have to get it from America. And a little from Africa. But let's say 2-3 million that leave Yanbu, leave Bab el-Mandeb, are gone. Oh, Thailand, Singapore, China, Japan, Indonesia... they'll all be fighting for it, right? It will cause more serious problems. Honestly, oh, even 2-3 million is still good. At least. And this oil is also related to oil quality. Nong Guitar, Bab el-Mandeb is Saudi Arabian oil. It has 3-4 grades: Arab Light, Arab Medium, Arab Heavy, all of them. I understand that refineries, after light oil or medium oil, which has high yields, disappeared, they started using American oil, which is light, or heavier oil from other places to mix to get the same formula. So, the worry has decreased to some extent. They have adjusted themselves. They found heavier crude oil to mix with lighter oil to get the same yield and adjusted their refining process slightly. This is reassuring for diesel. But the problem is, if Yanbu is closed again, will they have to adjust the formula again? Oh, it will be tiring again, Nong Guitar. Yes. So, that's the transportation stage. But some academics say there are actually diverse oil transport routes: the Caspian Sea, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Turkey. Regarding transport routes, besides Hormuz and the Red Sea, are other points normal? Or is the energy industry worried about other routes? Let's not listen to me or academics. Just close your eyes and think. Ships can carry a lot. Seas can carry a lot. Pipelines carry a bit less. Trucks are even harder. What are the two main routes? Fujairah, 1-1.5 million. Yanbu, Saudi Arabia's export, about 5 million, plus or minus. Iraq, Iran, etc., they have pipelines, but they only export a small amount. If they say they can export by truck, oh, Nong Guitar, how many convoys would it take to get to the Mediterranean Sea? That's the future. Nong Guitar, you have to order more trucks. Will you build a pipeline today? Can it be built in time? UAE is also trying. They've already said they will build a new pipeline, right? Because they know they don't want to rely on that. They will get more from Abu Dhabi to Fujairah, transport more. But how many years will that take? Today, Nong Guitar, you say they will send it through other routes. It's not today. Today, the only way is through pipelines. They have pipelines, but they are far away. They are not operating. They are probably trying their best. But the problem is, where will you get the trucks to deliver? It's very difficult to export. That's why I don't see this as the main issue that can be answered today. Yes. And another point, besides the transportation stage, is production. Last time, what was very scary was the attack on energy sources. Today, it's understood that they are still recovering. This time, the US has attacked some Iranian infrastructure. P' Pook, the production stage, energy infrastructure, oil and gas infrastructure, how risky is it this time, and how should we monitor it? Regarding Iran, I don't want it to happen. Don't attack the loading stations where they load onto ships at the Kharg Island. That would be serious. But I think America wouldn't dare to attack. If they attack, they'd be destroying themselves. Because Iran can't export from there. It will take 3-4 years, maybe 2-3 years, to repair. America would be in serious trouble too, because the world's oil supply would disappear instantly. They can't export. Even if they can produce oil, they can't export it. Now, America attacks energy infrastructure. I don't know what energy infrastructure. Natural gas is not a big concern because the main natural gas has already been affected, it was affected in Qatar. But crude oil, if Iran can export it, at least the world can get some relief from other sources. But has America attacked heavily? We've been talking about this for 4 months, Nong Guitar. For oil people, we don't want attacks because others suffer too. And currently, as I said, the underground oil is being depleted so much that it's almost at rock bottom. What will be used for reserves? It's even worse. The world, Nong Guitar, do you see any signs of reduced demand? I have the numbers here. They say China's supply has decreased by about 4 million. Listen carefully. China is importing less oil than usual, about 4 to 5 million. But China is a country where no one knows how much oil reserves they have underground or in tanks. It's highly possible they haven't reduced much, but they are using their own oil, like America, for domestic use. So, they are ordering less oil. They are smart because they have been doing this for 10 years, right? They ordered from Russia, imported, stored it themselves, kept it as reserves. Russia sells its own oil. No one knows how much Russia and China are trading. But the reported figures from the Middle East are missing 5 million. That might not be the case if we talk about demand, meaning people filling their cars, people filling their planes, people using gas for cooking, petrochemical products, oil for ships, oil for planes. It remains the same. It's just that China is importing less crude oil. According to the figures they report, they say demand has decreased. But in reality, demand, meaning people driving cars, might not have decreased. If people driving cars don't decrease, but the inventory in the banks, meaning the inventory in China's reserves, America's reserves, Europe's reserves, is depleted, it's like what you told me before the program, Nong Guitar. It's like we're taking money out of the bank to spend, but we have no income. 20% of the world is gone. What will we eat? Think about the situation, Nong Guitar. Yes. So, if there are attacks on infrastructure, whether America attacks Iran's, or Iran retaliates against oil infrastructure in the Arab world, it will definitely be dangerous, adding to the current situation where global oil reserves are depleted. And what you mentioned earlier, P' Pook, is interesting. It has been said that the global market will eventually rebalance, leading to demand destruction when oil prices are high. Demand will decrease, and the world will adjust. Can this compensate? With high oil prices, could it eventually balance out, and we avoid an energy crisis? Regarding demand, Nong Guitar, normally, supply increases, and demand follows supply. Before the war, it was 104 million barrels per day. If oil becomes expensive, say $200, demand might gradually decrease. But if it goes up to $150 or $200 today, Nong Guitar, it won't drop from 104 to 80 tomorrow. It's normal. People gradually reduce. The rich still fill up, the poor don't. But supply, Nong Guitar, think about it. Supply drops from 104 to 90 within a week. And supply from other sources can increase by 800,000 to 1 million. From 20 million, from 15-20 million that are missing, think about it. Demand is not decreasing rapidly. Supply is decreasing rapidly. So, think about it. Demand will be greater than supply. Supply versus demand. What remains is the part that has passed. Supply cannot come out. It cannot come out of the petroleum wells, from above-ground tanks, from the salt caverns in America that have been pumped out and used. Now, I ask you, Nong Guitar, if it's closed for another month or two, those tanks won't be pumped anymore, or very little. China has also used a lot. Then they will scramble, right? But fortunately, I don't know if it's good luck in bad luck. I've seen the numbers. Thailand is like this. It's normal information that can be disclosed on the Ministry of Energy's website. What is it? During the rainy season, Nong Guitar, diesel oil in Thailand and Asia naturally decreases. The demand for usage decreases. So, diesel, gasoline might not be the same, but diesel will decrease. So, it's a bit reassuring. At least, seasonally, and we are prohibited from exporting, right? We try to limit, not prohibit, exports. But personally, I think some exports might be necessary because it's about oil flow. But with the seasonal period until September, which is the rainy season, demand naturally decreases, while supply might decrease slightly. It's a bit reassuring. For my part, I have to manage, provide advice, and look at the numbers to ensure Thailand gets through the crisis. So, regarding the world, we analyze the world. Regarding Asia, we analyze Asia. But that doesn't mean Asia will lack. If Thailand has the ability to compete with others at a higher price, then it's okay. This answers the question that during our concern, Nong Guitar, Thailand has a special ability to compete with others to some extent. So, it's somewhat reassuring. Yes. So, that's what has happened. But with a new storm brewing, a new war in the Middle East, P' Pook has said we cannot be complacent. The previous crisis is not over, and a new one is starting. What do you think we cannot trust, and what should we do next? Let's be logical. Why did I show only the SPR graph, only America? Let's be logical. Before the war, more than half came from the Middle East. Today, the graph shows a lot from America, 30-40%. Why? Because America has light oil. They have adjusted the formula. Because on that day, Nong Guitar, look at the previous graph, it was higher. What does it mean? It means what we are using is from American wells and from these tanks, the underground tanks. I don't remember the exact number, but I think it's in Texas, in Oklahoma. Normally, they have over 100 million barrels of above-ground tanks. Now, only 22 are left, meaning it's full and at capacity. This petroleum reserve, before, was over 1,000. Now, it's 300. What does it mean? It means in the past month, when Thailand and Singapore didn't get oil from the Middle East, they compensated with America. Now, Nong Guitar, I ask you. 2-3 months ago, we ordered from America because of these tanks, all these underground tanks in America, that were released. Now, Nong Guitar, let's say you are an American. The tanks are empty. Will they still sell to Thailand? That's the source we've always ordered from, because America had oil tanks, underground reserve tanks. America is out. Nong Guitar, think with common sense. If you were the American minister, if you were Donald Trump, would you let your country run out of oil and sell it to foreign countries, or let foreign countries run out? This is what I fear the most. Yes. So, that's our important oil source. In times of emergency, they must protect their national security. And our response? As the chairman of the working group on adaptation, facing shortages... we will have to face it. Do we still have the risk of oil shortages? Will oil prices remain high like we experienced in February-March? Let's take it one by one. Shortage? Today, is there a shortage? Today, I will explain logically. The numbers seen today are figures that the Ministry of Energy discloses daily. It's still okay. Until when? The numbers I saw yesterday when I attended a meeting with them are: legal oil reserves, roughly 25 days. Let me explain. By law, it's 20, roughly. It's 6%. 1% is about 22 days for crude and refined. Refined oil goes to various tanks. But the reserve oil that companies have already stored, plus about 28-30, is domestic. Today, how many days do we have, both crude and refined? About 55 days domestically. But the 25 days according to law, I can tell you, cannot be used. Because, as I said, if there's a problem with war, or a problem with fire engines, it's very difficult to use those 25 days. And it's dead stock, like oil in pipelines. They count it. Oil in pipelines, Nong Guitar, think about it. If there's no refining, if it's truly closed, how will the oil in the pipelines be pushed out? They have to use what's called a "pig," like a dart. They call it "picking back." They might use water to push it out. But it's not operating normally. It has to use oil to push out oil. But for goods that are abroad, with a confirmed schedule for another 30 days, another month. And about 25 or 28 days that are confirmed but no ship has been found yet. Those are likely to arrive. So, all together, it becomes about 30 days of goods that have left the ships, plus another 25-30 days of goods that have been ordered but not yet departed. So, about 55-60 days. But what we fear the most is what has been ordered but not yet departed. If the numbers drop from 30 to 25, 24, 23, 22, oh, that's a bad sign, right? We have to watch that. But for what has passed, of course. This is my duty. I have to calculate in advance how much is used for diesel, gasoline, and other products each season. Tanks stored domestically, not legal tanks, but actual tanks in the country that can be stored. Subtract the usage. Manage it as much as possible. If it overflows, meaning the tanks are about to overflow, and they ask to export, we have to understand them. If it flows and cannot be stored, they will stop ordering. They can't. It has to flow. So, we might have to allow some exports. But for now, we are trying to manage. This is my duty as chairman, and I have to use this information for presentations on when and how we should manage. This is about quantity. As for price, don't even think about it, Nong Guitar. You know the situation. Will it go up or down? It's separate. What is called "premium" now. If we say, "Hey, stop ordering premiums," and they say, "Okay, I won't order." Why? Because it's starting to be hard to find, unlike last month when goods were overlapping, and we didn't want them. That was for future delivery, not immediate delivery. Now, it's starting again. Maybe it can't be found. Maybe, just maybe, Saudi Arabia, which said the premium is $20 above the base price of $0, might add it. The question is, do you want it? The question is, domestically, do you want it? If not, it's okay, they can sell it to other countries. If that's the case, the price will definitely be high. And there must be a premium, meaning for crude oil. There must be a premium. But for refined oil, we are discussing it now. Inside the ministry, we are discussing which ones are unreasonable and how to adjust. Right now, everything, I'm telling you honestly, I'm with the team. Whether it's the energy infrastructure team, which I've met with 4 times and concluded, or the energy structure committee. I can tell you that everything that can be limited has been limited. This is from the heart. But for the measures that will be implemented for limitation, let the spokesperson and the minister explain. But for what we can do, we are doing everything. But the price trend is likely to be higher, Nong Guitar. Yes. To be clear, in the next 1-2 months, we will not have a shortage problem with stock and management within the system. No problem for these two months. Yes, yes. As far as the numbers show, we are still reassured. And it might be good luck in bad luck. Why, Nong Guitar? Because we are moving from summer to the rainy season. Seasonally, domestically, the demand for diesel, yes, diesel, naturally decreases. So, it might allow us to import crude oil plus or minus 1 million barrels, but use less. The tanks will fill up, right? We have to find storage for it. Why? Because after the rainy season, it's winter. We know that in January, cars will be running again. So, at least we will have more tanks than usual for reassurance. This is management. Yes. Regarding the price, as P' Pook said, there's a chance it could be more expensive. This follows the global market price. Diesel is currently around 34.94 baht, so 35. Is there still a risk of it going up to 40 baht? This is transportation fuel, essential for the economy. Let's talk about diesel first. Thai diesel accounts for about 44% of crude oil. Let me explain crude oil a bit. 100% of crude oil entering Thailand, what comes out? About 42% diesel, because Thailand uses a lot of diesel, which it shouldn't. And gasoline, 25%. And 2-3% goes to things that are not car fuel. It's jet fuel, naphtha for petrochemicals, gas, and cooking gas. What is cooking gas used for? Petrochemicals, fuel oil for ships, fuel oil for industrial factories, or fuel oil is cracked again for petrochemicals. So, regarding diesel, what about the price today? I just looked at the graph in Singapore. Crude oil is around $85. Diesel has changed from what? Last week, Singapore diesel alone was around 130. Today, it's around 170. This is called the "crack spread." Thais call it the refining margin, not quite. This is the crack spread for diesel. Subtracting the base price from diesel. Gasoline might be around 130. Subtracting the base price from gasoline. But Thailand uses the refining margin, which includes other product values. So, what about diesel? If it's the Thai structure, and no profits are taken from refineries, do you know what the price would be today? 44 baht. Today, the normal price, the standard price, is 44 baht. So, it's being considered whether we should use the actual oil price. The actual refined oil price today is over $100. That's from last month. It's not like today's price is $85, so let's add it. The problem is, which price to use? I say managing these things is difficult, Nong Guitar. Regarding prices, but today, what is keeping the price stable? It's using the old law to limit the refining margin, called around 40, I don't know the details. Let the spokesperson and the minister explain. But the truth is, it's not being used. If it were being used, the Oil Fund would be used very little, unlike before, when we suppressed the price at 30 baht, and the actual price was 60 baht. That's why you heard that the Oil Fund was subsidizing over 20 baht. But now, the Oil Fund subsidy is very little. Because profits are being drawn from refineries. So, I explain that the price structure has changed. If you use the old price today, the price is high because it's from last month. If you use the new price, which price will you use? If you say, don't use the Singapore price, use whose price? The Thai price? If the price is higher than this, that's why I say it's dynamic, Nong Guitar. That's why I say the price of oil has a tendency to go up. Yes. And actually, if... if the actual price were used, it might be even more expensive. It would exceed 40 baht for diesel. For gasoline and gasohol, the current price... is there still a chance for it to go up further? Gasoline is still expensive at 43 baht. Gasohol is over 30 baht. It's like this. The pricing mechanism, as far as I can see, but I'm not an expert, is like this. Gasoline, listen carefully. The actual content of gasoline in the world is cheaper than diesel. Thailand makes it expensive because gasoline is used to subsidize diesel and cooking gas. Mr. Rotsana, Khun Mhom Korn, I know him well. Professor Panthap, I met him the other day. He said he requests that in the future, it should not be called "cross-subsidy," which I agree with. The committee also agrees. It might take some time, but we agree that gasoline should not be used to subsidize diesel. So, to answer Nong Guitar, is gasoline expensive? If Nong Guitar compares it to the structure, it's not much more expensive than before. Why? Because gasoline is already made expensive. So, it's not as expensive as before. Now, the second question is about all the bio-fuels. Biodiesel. Bio is palm oil. Palm oil is added to diesel. The actual cost is slightly more expensive than diesel. The actual oil content is slightly more expensive than diesel. They add it to B7, now changing to B20. Because they are trying to reduce diesel content. But to motivate people to use it, they have to make the price very cheap, which distorts the mechanism slightly. Back to ethanol. Ethanol is from cassava, etc. The actual oil content is close to the actual oil content of gasoline at its normal, undistorted price. Therefore, ethanol has a chance. In the future, if Thai people understand that ethanol is not much different from gasoline, the price of ethanol will be good if the quantity is large. Like Brazil, they use more ethanol, grow more cassava, and don't need much subsidy. The price of gasoline shouldn't be much higher. But in the long term, I want to clarify that the price structure should reflect reality as much as possible. And also, regarding knowledge, if we use oil derived from plants in the country, it reduces the amount of crude oil that needs to be refined. Nong Guitar. Yes. Besides the shortage situation, management, and prices, P' Pook, during the oil shock 3 months ago, there was a crisis of empty gas stations worldwide. People had to queue to fill up. That situation, it's understood, involved management and an acute crisis. As the chairman of the committee overseeing shortages, will that situation not happen in Thailand again? It's much better. Let me tell you, on that day, I wasn't involved yet, but I saw the news and knew. Everyone knew, right? Nong Guitar also knows. Because we subsidized the price to be low, and the world price went high. Ask anyone, and they'll know it has to explode. So, people hoarded it. That is, what we saw in the news, that in ships, there were seizures. I'm not involved in this, but I heard from Khun Oh, Khun Oh Sudsoi, he told me that he went to catch things. There were lawsuits. As far as I know, I'm not involved, but in the ministry, there are people whose duty it is to catch them, to sue them. I'm not involved in that. But I see two things. I see that they have dashboards, they use GPS, they track the oil system. In the data they have, and with the Ministry of DE. As far as I know, they are trying to track where the oil leaving the refinery tanks is going, whether it's on the route. They have this. What I add is: it doesn't need to be GPS, but I calculate the incoming goods to Thailand and their refined products. This is what I add. It's like, instead of understanding... What is their dashboard, Nong Guitar? They see it and see where it's going. What I add is something that's not yet in the system, but it's like VR, like visualization. Forecasting what might happen based on incoming numbers and how much will be refined. If one day, maybe, if it's truly scarce, maybe I'll consult the refineries, maybe ask the minister for authority, "Should we consult the refineries?" For example, jet fuel. Nong Guitar, you know jet fuel and diesel are similar. When they squeeze, if they see a need for diesel, they will make more diesel. They will squeeze for these two. But if diesel is in surplus, they will refine it into jet fuel and export it. Maybe we should ask, "Can we adjust the formula a bit?" For now, maybe in the future. Yes. Finally, regarding the energy transition, or the need not to face energy shortages again. We talked a lot about it when the situation was at its peak. The situation dropped until it came back again. What is the development of the transition or energy revolution in our country, and what else should we do? Let me tell you. After the UK, Nong Guitar, I called meetings. I ran to every department. They cooperated well, and they were excited. I used my knowledge and some of theirs. Let me list them briefly. I've listed 23 projects. Projects to change Thailand. I sat and listed, using my knowledge. Have you started? Yes, many things are already being done. For example, roughly, how to reduce refined oil. Simply put, don't use it, right? Use electric vehicles instead of diesel. Use gas instead of diesel. Use domestic gas for food. That's the transportation sector. Diesel can be replaced by domestic diesel from plants, but the price has to be good. Like what Nong Guitar asked earlier, ethanol. Ethanol replaces gasoline. This reduces the need for gasoline. When the need for gasoline and diesel decreases, the crude oil that needs to be refined for fuel also decreases. Refineries can still operate normally. Refineries might adjust their formulas to produce more naphtha for petrochemical sales. They will have income if the profit is good. These things have good profits. What else? Another project I'm working on is in the area of... I can publicize this. In the field called "Era Wan," called G1/61, G2/61. Currently, the real owner is the Department of Mineral Fuels, not private companies. People don't know. The real owner, the big one, is the Department of Mineral Fuels, the Ministry of Energy. All revenue, roughly, to tell you, if the production of natural gas here can be increased by 50%, 50% is for expenses, 38% is for the Ministry of Energy, and only 12% is for the concessionaire. That's why I'm looking into it. I'm looking into whether we can increase natural gas production by about 100-300 units, about 15% of domestic gas, within a year or two, but we are trying to speed it up. The minister said, "Oh, this is good, P' Pook. Bring it up." If we can increase it, what does it mean? If we can increase domestic gas, it's better than buying expensive gas from abroad, Nong Guitar. But in the past, it might have been due to a lack of understanding or the price. Because the price was too low, it wasn't worth investing. No one invested. But if we increase the price appropriately, but still 2-3 times cheaper than abroad, Nong Guitar. And this domestic gas, what comes out with it is condensate, crude oil, and non-gas components. This is a good thing. I'm accelerating this. What else? There are things I see with my own eyes and wonder why they aren't done. Biomass. For example, if we increase the production of agricultural products that Nong Guitar thinks Thailand is working on. There's corn. There's rice, sugarcane. They are compressed into pellets. Those pellets are wooden pallets. They are boiled to produce electricity. Do you know how cheap it is compared to LNG? The cost is probably less than 3 baht. LNG is 5-6 baht. And we have biomass. See? Instead of thinking holistically, I've discussed this with the ministry, with the Department of Alternative Energy. They asked, "What are the numbers?" Because every drop we use to generate electricity replaces LNG imports. See? This is for the long term. Some things are simpler. Nong Guitar, some things, for example, I've looked at the data. Electricity. Do you know, Nong Guitar, electricity? We produce about 23,000 billion units per year. We use a little over 200,000. So, 15% is lost. It's technical loss. It's loss in the system. When there's a loss in the system, what happens? We use a lot of gas. Normally, if we have linked data nationwide, and we know when to pay for electricity, when to turn on the lights, meaning the production of the ministry, of the electricity authority. I've attended meetings. If we have a good system, we can reduce losses. Suppose by 5%. Nong Guitar, 5% of the loss along the way, which is technical loss, is a lot of kilowatt-hours, you know? See? Just good data management, reducing gas consumption, transitioning to more domestic electricity production, which is cheaper, and is base load. I'll tell you later about what will happen with dark vehicles and what will be used. See? If we manage with engineering knowledge and correct numbers, Thailand will survive, Nong Guitar. Yes. I'm cheering for all these projects. If there's a chance, I'll invite P' Pook to update. Thank you very much today, P' Pook. Thank you. Goodbye. Goodbye, everyone. Goodbye. Goodbye, P' Pook Panurat Damrongthai, energy expert. And P' Pook is also the Chairman of the Working Group on Energy Shortage Response and Adaptation for Energy Security, Ministry of Energy. But what is worrying everyone now is the new energy crisis. The old one is not over, and a new one is coming. We cannot be complacent. With 4 main issues: 1. The Strait of Hormuz. Previously, it was said to be open legally, but now in practice, it seems to be closed, due to both the US blockade on the outer layer and the closure or control by Iran. In addition, what is very worrying is that we might receive oil, but we cannot refine it because refineries worldwide are still recovering from previous attacks and need time to repair. 3. America's card. The oil reserves are depleted. The SPR graph shows it's the lowest since 1983. Part of these oil reserves was used during the crisis in the past 2-3 months. And now, it's not just America. The use of oil reserves in many countries with strategic reserves has reached its lowest point. So, it might not be possible to release reserves if the world's oil supply is disrupted. Another issue is that now it's not just the Strait of Hormuz being attacked. The Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, another transport route. If there are attacks on important oil export ports or even oil pipelines, it will be a compounding factor. And what we cannot be complacent about is the impact of storms from Asia and China. Previously, demand was forced to decrease due to high prices and disruptions. But if consumption has to resume, economic activity will pick up, and energy demand will return. Therefore, we cannot be complacent about these issues. On the Ministry of Energy's side, and the working group's side, there are many projects. But we have to monitor their progress. At the initial stage, our domestic oil supply for the next 30-60 days is not short. But after that, it's uncertain. Will oil prices increase? There's a chance they will increase after being very expensive and then falling. The chance of them increasing again follows the direction of global market prices. This is what we always need to prepare for, both at the individual, family, organizational, and national levels. Thank you very much for following today. See you in the next live broadcast. Guitar, P' Pook, and the team are signing off. Goodbye.