Transcription
All right, everybody. Pretty wild day, to say the least. We're going to get to it. This one's going to be pretty raw and unedited. There's a lot going on here, and I just want to show you this before we really dive into what's happening after hours. And I wanted to see the futures market open before I recorded this so that we go through the names and we look at the under the hood. But there's a lot of moving parts here.
So, the very first thing I just want to show is this 3:30 deadline of there'll be no meeting. We're not going to the special meeting. RN pulls out of the meeting. And then, of course, we get the move right after the market closes. You know, nine minutes after the market closed, indefinite ceasefire as long as they're talking. This is really interesting because the ceasefire, nothing's changed besides the fact that, all right, so there's not anybody bombing, but the blockade. No matter what we're saying out there, some people are saying, "Oh, well, China's not having a problem." How do you know that? China's calling you and telling you that, or you write it on Twitter? So, like, it's very clear that 90 to 95% of what's supposed to be getting through the strait is not getting through the strait, right? And there's a reason that oil is acting this way.
So, I want to point out a couple things before we really get into this. If we take a look at this drop, it's vicious. This is an algorithm. This algorithm moved one minute when it read the word "ceasefire." And since then, you haven't gone anywhere. You can't get above it. You can't break it because the market's scared to short it because they don't know what's going on. Meanwhile, Iran has come out and said, "We don't even understand the ceasefire, but we're going to have a more formal statement."
So, now let's get to it. Make sure you subscribe, click all notifications. What we go over here is extremely timely. I purposely do not run any kind of ads in the middle of this because I find it annoying, but the algorithm likes it. So, by you subscribing and clicking all notifications, it does counterbalance that. Also, you don't want to miss these because they're all linked together and they are extremely actionable. If you've been watching these, you would have been looking at Avis weeks before anybody on Twitter was telling you that Avis is going higher. So, rank nudge. Let's go.
This is really bothersome. This, we're waiting till 4:00 to say something. We're going to say something at 3:00. What's going to happen here on an institutional basis is the market's going to shut down. And I don't mean that it's not going to go higher or it's not going to go lower, but the volumes are going to start dropping. And what's going to happen is your names, the bids are going to start disappearing. And you may have noticed that. I refer to it as depth of book. And why that's important.
And then before I get to anything else, I wanted to stay on the NQ because that's where I am. So, we had this huge drop. They tried to get above that drop, and then you still can't get above that drop. And everything that happened here, just so we're clear again, is a one-minute bar. It is not significant buying because of the ceasefire, even though there's a blockade.
All right. So, this is what we have. And we're going to talk about this because this is not great either. But it's really important to get this when you lose depth of book because people just get to the point where they've had enough. You get massive swings in names and for no reason. For example, AMD yesterday. Nobody wanted to go near AMD because of what was happening. Now, several someone will come out and tell me, "No, they bought it." Okay, good for you.
Now, if you look at this right here, 2027179. So, you come in, you're looking at that, that's your chart, and then you get this, and you get an all-time high close. There's no way technically anybody is looking at that bar and saying, "I know what I need to do. I really need to get involved in the shooting star. I better get involved right now." Because they always reverse. No, far from it. So, you're catching people off positions. If you look at what's happening here, really, all we're doing is running up, breaking down, and then we're taking the stairs up to where we got thrown out the window. And then you're finding yourself that you're rejecting around those levels and the hopes that you're going to get back through them. So, it's literally like two steps, you know, back and then one step forward, even though these things are moving the way that they are. And it's really got absolutely nothing to do with the name and everything to do with what's going on the market because when you, what you're dealing with here is people are just saying, you know what, I'm just going to step out of the way because I don't know what to expect. And therefore, when I don't know what to expect, why play the game? To be clear, it doesn't matter the name.
Before we get into it, you tell me your name's special. So, if we take a look at AOI, and we can see these breakouts and then these wicks retest, and we had great earnings, and then they've come back. We backfilled into those earnings. Beautiful breakout from there, and then you run up. What's happening? We get two hammers in here like we're going to hold, and then what happens? All-time highs, and then we just reverse, right? So, you go from 173 to 150, and then you're supposed to say, "Oh, that's okay. I'm going to hold the 25% move or the 25-point move."
Now, let's just take a look at this so you can understand what I'm talking about here so you get it. That's a 13% move or $24. So, is that a standard move right now in that name? And what you do is just go to the ATR, and then we look at the ATR. That's going to tell you the average true range on the day. The average true range on that is supposed to be $14. So, no news, no nothing, and you're moving $24. That's why with these kinds of names like Light, that's why the stuff is getting so hard for people to hold because, "Oh, we're breaking out. We're getting ready to go again." And I'm not saying that they have to rip because they're breaking out, but what you're getting is you're just getting that return over and over again. Not once, but across many names. 929 to here. And you're going to see it. Okay. What is that? It's 100 points. Is that what we did today? 100-point move on this. All right. There you go. And then you go look at the ATR for a second. You'll see I'm going to tie all this together, and it's an important concept. We'll do it this way, I guess.
All right. So, there we are. And that's supposed to have a 70-point move, and you're at 100, and you don't have any news or any reason or anything behind it. And we, and on it goes, right? So, we can go through these things. So, what we talked about yesterday, and what we're really seeing is that rotation within itself. And we talked about this with like the SOX, and the SOX is hitting highs today, but it's the open and the close. But what's happening out there? Well, today it's AMD, and then then you look, and it's not Micron today, right? So, then it must be the ADI again. No, ADI is actually down. Well, it's probably Texas Instruments because that's what was leading yesterday. No, that's down. All right. So, when we look at the SOX, we notice that the SOX is doing why? Well, the SOX is up. All right. So, what is it today? Well, maybe it's KAC. No, that's down. See what's happening is not only are you rotating sectors really fast, you're rotating within the sectors really fast.
So, one of the things that I mentioned yesterday is the way to avoid this is to go out there and look at SOXL and trade that and trade around that using these 3X vehicles so that you don't have single stock risk right now while we're trying to get through this because it's really positioning and short interest, right? That's why this name's working so well. I see all these articles about, you know, and we talked about this, I think it was three days ago, get ready for the Twitter and get ready for the articles. Why? Because once you broke this level out, everyone's going to start tweeting about it, how they knew about it, and that's the last people that buy. We went through this in the pre-market today, the public one, where, hey, where are you in the food chain, right? This is the tail end when the retail articles come out and the people explain to you. They don't tell you that they didn't buy it at 100, but they're going to explain to you at 700 why it's doing what it's doing. So, like when you see something like this, clearly this is going to end in tears. It's just a function of does it end in tears at 1,200 or 400. You just don't know. I've traded. I'll day trade it now. We had a position in this, and I've been talking about it for weeks, but it was on this break because it hit everyone's run rate and then from there we've done quite well with it. But just to be completely clear, I'm 100% out of this. We had a swing trade on, we did it at 218. We kicked it. I'm going to do the whole thing on Saturday as to why we did this trade. And then we had a day trade on that we did it in the 370s, and we kicked that out as well. And no, I didn't get in the 70s. I got in the sixes. And you know what? I'm okay with that. I had a bunch of calls too. But the thing about this is not normal behavior, right? And so when you start to see this, they start looking for the other ones like I did. And you start looking, all right, is Hertz going to do it? Is Beyond going to do it? They start looking for them, right? And maybe you're going to catch that or not, but they're not the signs of a healthy market, but they are what we have to deal with. So that's what we're dealing with.
If we take a look at IGV today, we tried to break the higher high, and this would have been beautiful. And then we started to see it with names like this too with CRM, which was setting up perfectly and then failed the 55. So, what you want to see now with this, and I'll just show you the level that I'll be watching. You should do what you're comfortable with. But I'll try to see if we're going to get over that level. Cool. So I'll mark that off. I actually did a day trade on this and then just kicked it out when I lost a dollar because I didn't want the risk if you can't close over. You've seen it with Microsoft, and that's actually trying to hold. We've seen it with Oracle, and that's trying to hold. But they all tried getting over their higher highs, and they're all failing. And you know, maybe they'll catch now, maybe they won't because we have this permanent ceasefire, even though we have a blockade, but we expect the other side not to do a blockade.
Okay, let's keep going. So, where does this leave us with drivers? I think we're seeing the rotation. And to me, this is where it gets like, kind of interesting. So, if I go HIGN, and this should get me to New York Stock Exchange highs, and then we're, we'll bring this all back. But what we're going to do is we're going to turn this into a line, and then we'll make it a bar chart. And then what we're going to do is we're just going to focus on where you are. Today's Tuesday, and so the new highs are here, and we're not hitting new highs. Now, if we went and took a look at the lows, the new lows, and you're going to see very clearly that you're starting to make more new lows. So, you're hitting less new highs and more new lows. So, I don't know if this one will let me do it. I have another system I could do it on, but let's see if it, how this gives me here and see if this gives me anything that I can actually work with. Not really. I mean, we can kind of see it here if I blow it up. And what you're going to get is you're going to get that divergence from April 14th to April 17th. And if I take this, and I'll show it to you this way, you can just see this over time how you're going to get these, right? But if I took that over time, and then let's just do it. I love when we can do stuff together. And we'll take the New York Stock Exchange. We'll go NYA and we'll drop it here like it's hot, like the kids say. And then we'll go here. No, that's not it. Come on, Boomer. Move to new paint above. Click this off. Go to this. And Yep. Perfect. All right, let's just drop this down. And then we'll take a look at it. And what you'll see is high, higher, high, lower, high. So, under the hood, you're starting to have some issues. And I think that that's important. Now, is that the be all end all? Not really. It just means that you're not hitting new highs after you went higher.
All right. How about this? Because I do think that this is important. And then we're going to get into some names here. So, we have the 200, the 50, the 20, and the five. And what you'll note here is that the 20 is starting to roll over. Now, do you have a divergence there? No. Do you have a divergence in the 50 or the 200? No. So, what we're going to do is just shrink these down for a minute. And do you have a divergence in the five? Yes, you do. So, you hit a high here, and now you're hitting another lower high here after you're hitting a high. So, you have an issue. Now, there's another issue that you're developing, and I'll show you it. I'd like to do this broader, and then I'll get into the minutia of like the card trade. Maybe I'll do it in a whole video, and so maybe I'll do it like on a Thursday video or something. I'll do the whole thing because I'm not giddy that we're up. And I'll just show, let me show you this way, and then we'll get to the nitty-gritty here.
So, here we are. And I'm going to leave the pre and the post. And that's why it says ETH there. And so you can see this for yourself. Or you can do it this way with the NQ. And I'll do it that way. Right? But you can see it with the Q's. And you see it already, right? Look at it. Look. All right. High hits a higher high. High hits a lower high. If you want to go and stand in front of that and just assume that things are going to be better, great. Historically, that's not the best idea to start playing with negative divergences. And it doesn't mean that it has to happen right away, but it does mean that when you see this kind of stuff like in here, and then you start seeing it in here, that you're starting to set up to come in. Now, what that's going to look like or how long that takes, candidly, it's, they're not that common. Like if I, I'm looking at them here and going back a year, and if you really look at, we have one here, and then you have another one here, and then when that hits, it finally comes in. You have one here, you have another one here, and then eventually it comes in. It takes time for these to come in, right? And there's not really one there. And I'm not going to go back all through the, you know, the ages of time, but if we just go take a look here for like, you know, from the past 12 months when you see them, they're there. And it doesn't mean that, oh, the sky is falling. Far from it, guys. Like, you might literally just come down to something like this, right? Break this, come down 2%, sit down there, roll back over. But you have to be cognizant that this is there. And the fact that you're breaking over it, you need to be aware of that. Now, does that mean that you can't rally back up? No, you 100% can. But you better be aware of this and that you're developing a negative divergence there. It's certainly something that's on the radar. If you go and take a look at the hourly, you'll start to see it even more pronounced, right? Where you see you're here, and then you're here. It's getting there. I don't know how this ends. And it's supposed to end with world peace, but that's not really what's going on.
And so what we're going to do again, real quick here, besides showing you that divergence, is I just want to show you this because I think it's very important. This is what happened to the market right at the end of the day with no peace. You're assuming that both sides want a ceasefire, just so we're clear on this. And I'm not so sure that they do. And so we're going to leave it at that. The other thing that I think we have to realize here in looking at this is that is a one-minute bar, and I'm saying it again for a reason, and the algorithms triggered it because they saw the word "ceasefire," and that was it. And since then, what have you done? You can't even get over it. So, you want to start with that.
Now, once we have that done, this is something else that you should always do when you have environments like this. And it's very simple. A matter of fact, what I'll do is I'll do it through the Qs, and then you guys can do this for yourself whenever you like, right? Or don't do it. Just say, "He's nuts. He has no idea what he's doing." But here's Friday at 8:00. And that's not what I want. I want Friday at 4:00. So, we're going to clean that off. And then we're going to go find. All right, there's Thursday and there's Monday. And Friday 4:00. All right, cool. So, when we get into that here, and that's going to take me to Monday at 9:30, and that's going to take me to Friday at 4:00. All right. The closes on Friday are the most important close of the week. And the reason is because if pension funds want to get in or out, whatever they don't do, they do on a Friday. That's why people always watch Fridays. That's why Fridays will even have people even chart just Fridays and have 52 weeks of a freaking Friday on a chart with the up and the down and the price point on it, right? People will literally do that because institutions that want to get out all week, if they're not out, they say they have, they want to get out of like a million Nvidia. They'll call the broker and be like, "Hey, you're, we got 400 more to go. Like, what are you doing?" So, you have to go. And so, or hey, we got 400 more we want to own. What are you doing? Like, you have to buy it. We need the exposure. Very different than like you and I. Remember, they're the sharks. We're the raora.
So, when we look at that level and we can see it here, how have we responded to that Friday level? Did those people from Friday decide to buy, or have they decided to sell? And so when we look at this Monday at 4:00, right at that level. All right. So, not really. That is that Tuesday 9:30. Then we tried to get over that. And how long were we over that for? Maybe 15 minutes today. And look at what happened. And if you think that's not a level to care about, look what happened when you broke it. That was it for the day. Then we fell apart. No more world peace. Then we got a tweet that tells us we have world peace. All right, cool.
So, when we look at something like that and we can see these bottoms, maybe some of this stuff holds. And again, I'm not saying that you're going to roll back over and go down 10%. Far from it. I don't think that happens unless it gets absolutely goofy. But I don't think you can look at this and say that it's over. You can go and do the same thing with the S&P, like, legitimately the same thing. And you can also go off and mark Sunday's future market and go look at the same exact way. But if I go here to this 4:00, and then we just go look at that level and then say to ourselves, all right, self, like, how did we do from there? All right. Well, you know, we opened up. All right, cool. We tested that. Fantastic. Then we rallied up, and then we hit it, and we broke through it, right? Like a piece of Swiss cheese. I think the kids still say that. So, when you see that, you have to look at that and go, "All right, well, we can't even hold that Monday level. How about Friday's level?" And we'll go to Friday. Well, I'm glad you asked. That looks really similar, doesn't it? Came back to Monday, held that, and then we were up here for a whopping 15 minutes, tried to get back through it. And if you take a really hard look at what happened in here, you have a battle, and then that was it. Boom, battle's over, and they're dumping.
So, if you have institutional selling now, and they're changing their position from Friday, and we're watching them pop names like Light over, right? Like we're watching them pop these names over levels to get us in, and then they're pulling back. Do we really want to get that extended? Here's the larger issue that I see, and I don't think that people are truly getting the larger issue. Trump issues a ceasefire. Okay, this is your special ceasefire bar right here. And someone went, "Larry, I am in no mood." So, like, when you start to see this, it's like, "All right, no, I'm going to do the ceasefire." Well, the other side needs to do it. Has anyone thought about the other side getting so annoyed by what's going on that they just start again? And they very well could. They have a blockade, so they, it's not like they're able to get anything else out either, or we just expect the blockade to go away, right? So, when we start to really look at this, you have a lot of moving parts. And I'm not saying that it can't be fixed, but is it going to be fixed sooner or is it going to be fixed later? Because now what we've done is we've done a ceasefire indefinitely as long as you're willing to talk to us. And now we have to figure out what that means, right? And that's what we're dealing with here.
So, the idea that crude can't go higher from here again, all of it moved within two minutes, and it never moved again. And I think that people are really missing this because they saw the move and they're watching the moves after hours, but you're going to be on top of it because you've watched it during this video. I think that this is something that's very important, and I don't think it's being talked about enough. I think when you start looking at stuff like EWY, which I've owned for a very long period of time, and I'm watching them go back and forth and battle today going, "Oh, will they, won't they?" You know what? I think they're down to three weeks of jet fuel, and there's no boats heading there. I know everybody has like a friend or a brother that's telling them China's fine. Yeah, because China calls them to make sure that, you know, Bob that's in his basement in Jersey knows that China's getting shipments. You know, that makes perfect sense. So, when we start to look at this kind of stuff, we have to look at this and say to ourselves, all right, like, is this an area where I really want to be net long? I I'd love to with Hynix coming out with earnings this week, right? This thing should break out, but I don't know how this is going to go. And I I see a lot of rhetoric out there that, oh, everything's fine, but I'm seeing these divergences. And so, the antenna's up. And I think the antenna should be up for people right now. So, I think we want to watch and wait and go from there. And I really think you have to look at oil.
The other thing that I would say to you is that when we watch the VIX today, now the VIX closed at 4:15. At 4:00, it was over 20. Once that gets over 20 and we start hitting those higher highs, if we do tomorrow, all of a sudden all the CTA buying that the triggered system buying, it all stops. And so, or it slows down. I shouldn't say it all stops. So, this puts us in another precarious position. And I think that that's really where your head should be with all of this. I think it should be head on a swivel trying to understand how this is going to play out and then go from there. It doesn't mean that there's not opportunity, but it's very clear to me that when we look at some of these names like Tesla, that they're trying to buy for earnings, they're just puking them when they rally up. When you're trying to get in, you know, something like a Micron again, they're not lifting. And and people like, "Oh, well, it's resting." Is that what it's doing? I mean, I hope that's what we're doing, but I'm just not seeing that. So, until we start to see that, I think you're better off doing things along the lines of the ETF market. I think that makes way more sense. You know, even names that we saw that were rallying like UNH, which just absolutely crushed and no one expected, net sellers all day. CrowdStrike, they had to buy, right? By the end of the day, they were selling it down. And it should lift here. Like if something's going to lift, like this would be perfect to get through. Same with the PW. Like these names were setting up, you know, perfectly to lift, but we're just not getting that. So, until we do, we have to understand that you're going to have multiple rotations in the market. And on top of that, I don't know how this is going to get resolved as soon as I'm going to clean all this off. I don't know how this is going to get resolved as soon as we think it is. That's it.