Transcription
Today's number, guys, is five because 2026 has started with a bang, bringing in a positive market for the S&P 500 and, of course, leading into one of the most important stats of the year that happens every January. So, what is it and why do we need to be paying attention?
Well, one thing's for sure, Wall Street is not playing by the same game they did in 2025. And it's different sectors and areas that you're going to need to be looking at, as the NASDAQ notches something very worrying that we usually see before crashes. Negativity, while other markets are actually rallying. So, what exactly is going on?
Well, let's take a look at stocks, commodities, and cryptos in today's video to uncover some of Wall Street's secret moves, including a big rally in Bitcoin. See you soon, guys. This one is not to be missed.
Well, welcome back, everybody, to the Daily Show. My name is Thomas Atinson, and in today's video, we'll be covering the macro, the data, and, of course, what Wall Street doesn't want you to know about the markets right now, including some massive declines in some of the tech stocks and, more importantly, rallies through so many different sectors. So, let's kick things off with the data stats that matter.
And, of course, that is the first five trading days of any year. If you're not tracking this stat, you really need to start doing it because, as you can see here, it's a pretty good predictor of what tends to happen. Now, there are other ones that we stack here on the channel. So, make sure to subscribe because January turns out to be a pretty good barometer. But when we do see positivity, according to Ryan Detric and Subu Trade, we end up with 14.2% on average gain for the year, and that is an 84% chance of finishing positive.
Now, it's not the only stat. So, of course, we need to be paying attention to many other things, but do remember that it is a good omen when it comes to markets most likely seeing dips and rallies throughout the at least first dip of the year, which we expect to potentially happen in Q1. So, what does Mark Newton think? Who is, of course, head of Fund Strat's global advisory, and he is a believer that he sets a target for 7,300 and then warns stocks could see a massive drawdown in Feb.
So, interestingly, a lot of people are playing the data statistical event here, which does tend to happen more in midterm election years, and it points towards potentially this earning season, which is coming up, being a very volatile event indeed. And you can see here some reports, information if you wish to read that. But I want to kind of focus on what Wall Street seems to be doing this year.
During one part of the last session, we saw here that actually tech was down 1.91% while every other sector was up. And you might think, well, you know, what's big about that? Well, it doesn't tend to happen that often. And although it didn't close this way, as some other sectors did end up being slightly negative, you can see here tech at one point was clearly down the most while other sectors were all positive across the board. And it shows that Wall Street continues to play this increased breadth game post, of course, the rate cut seasons from Fed last year in September. This is exactly what we've been covering and exactly what we've been talking about. Metals first, healthcare, oil services, so many different sectors, so much abundance in these markets right now, guys.
So, just remember in '26, look at things differently, and more importantly, start paying attention to some of the canaries out there. One of those canaries being CDS. So, of course, credit default swaps, and also the fact that everybody seems to be complacent when it comes to yields. So, of course, high-risk yielding is very important. And at the moment, nobody seems to think that high-risk credit or basically junk bonds are even considered junk. You can see here compression of the spreads for the yield hunt that is going on right now in markets. And this really bodes badly because remember the last time this kind of thing happened. It just shows complacency and it shows that generally something is actually a little bit wrong with the economy. It's just that no one's talking about it yet. And that is the key. It's always about understanding when it's time to hold something, when it's time not to. And as you'll find out in today's video, it still looks okay for now.
Let's have a look at the U3 unemployment rate, which obviously has been rising. Now, it's gone above the 3-day moving average. And often, this is considered one of the best recession signals out there. However, I would note that this actually triggered quite a while ago and has since not produced a recession. So, you might see this one going around. Uh, it's obviously from Alex over on X. And you can see here that it does look pretty compelling. It's pretty much called every single one, but a lot of those, remember, the unemployment numbers are generally lagging. So, do remember it's a great read. There are several things that we pay attention to here, but it's not quite a cause for concern just yet.
Another interesting fact of 2026 is that we've started off very weak for Apple. It's actually been down seven consecutive days in a row, and it does tend to buck the trend over the next couple of trading sessions. So, day traders and people on smaller time frames may be wanting to look at the charts and, of course, pay attention to what's going on because, according to the latest data from market stats, there's an 80% chance that two to three days later after a read like this, we have a positive Apple. So, certainly something to be looking at.
Some other stats that are interesting: percentage of stocks above the upper Bollinger band actually triggered once again. You might think, well, is this a breadth thrust of sorts? Yes, it is. It's not as good as the ones we used in 2025, such as the trip 70 and, of course, the ZG. But what we do have is a fairly good sign of a broadening pattern. And this often does come even near temporary highs in markets, but it suggests that there's usually a little bit more to come. It's usually not a sign of an instantaneous crash. And you can see that marked out by these red dots here in the markets, uh, at this point.
So, we want to get into the main reason, uh, that I want to discuss today: the idea that there's abundance in this market, and one of them is actually the growth versus value chart that we'll be looking at a little bit later. You can see that chart there from Grant Hawkridge, but we'll talk about it in just a few moments because Wall Street has been playing a very different rotation game. Health services, we've obviously got oil services, we have, of course, metals, materials, precious metals, inflation-based things, stagflation-based things. They've been the best investments actually for the last three to six months.
Now, is it about to change again? While we're seeing Dow Jones Industrials making all-time highs, transports making two all-time highs, and in general, this is a good read, at least temporarily, for a breadth increase, and, of course, a market rotation. So, where could the problems be? Where could Q1 start to get a little bit nasty? Well, according to midterm years, you can see here Almanac Trader actually has bought out their midterm year kind of market, and it does tend to actually be a bit soft leading into the back end of January. Now, that's a lot different to, of course, what a normal January looks like. And if you go and have a look at the stats themselves, when we come off the back of a very good year, which of course '25 was, we do tend to see the back end of January start to show weakness. And we're already getting close to that, if you can believe it. We're almost halfway through the month. So, of course, that's where you want to be watching.
Now, we have spoken recently about the idea that Bitcoin and potentially a lot of other altcoins are starting to show signs of improvement. Well, it turns out that we have started to see actual signs of improvement here with Bitcoin, not so much in the flows this year, obviously ending two negative sessions, but we did see some nice action over the last 24 hours with a good flow increase here, guys. That's starting to put pressure back on that upside. And, of course, that all-important 94,500 level that we've been talking about for what seems like months, because guess what? It has been months. Trapped between 86 and 945. If we break either of these sides, there's probably going to be a decent amount of momentum in the trade.
Let's now take a look at the S&P, and then we'll go over the options. First up, advanced decline line obviously going up because breadth is. Is that a negative signal for the markets? Generally, no. And remember, when the markets are making new advanced decline lines, generally that means higher highs are eventual. So, even if we do get sell-offs, they usually are picked up. You can see here it was a sell into a bit of a rally day, but the main thing was the concern about the NASDAQ, and you can see here that the NASDAQ actually ended up negative. So, while there were other sectors, uh, than the tech sector, such as healthcare, that ended up negative, although I'm bullish on healthcare, you can see here that it is struggling quite a lot with that 25,800, which is a level you'll need to be watching on, uh, the NASDAQ indeed.
Now, we don't have the updated options because this video is a little bit earlier than usual today, but I will tell you that generally speaking, it does seem to be that 6,900 is the major put level that I'm seeing in the options walls. And, of course, each 100 points underneath that are the current levels. So, 69, 68, those are the two levels you want to be watching. And if we do lose 69 by too much on the S&P, expect 68 to be the next potential level. When it comes to Tesla, obviously 430, we believed it was a pretty good zone. It's still fighting around that area. So, of course, we'll be paying attention to that. And Nvidia still looks like a double bottom on the charts.
But before we jump into the charts and look any closer at everything in the markets, I did want to say a big thank you to the sponsor of today's video, and that is, of course, Tiger Brokers. Now, as you guys know, if you've been a longtime viewer, we've worked with Tiger for quite a few years, and they've just been stacking awards because they're offering exceptional service. At the same time, they're also listening to feedback, which, as you guys know, is a huge component of why I'm enjoying working with Tiger over the years because they offer not only incredibly competitive fees to be able to get into one of the best markets in the world, which is obviously the US market, but on top of that, which can be pretty hard for people outside, you know, you Americans out there that are listening right now, it's all easy being in the US dollar, but sometimes it's a little tough, you know, a little tough coming from the Australian peso over into the the American dollar. And, of course, we also get some little bit extra offers as a member of the FX Evolution community. So, if you're interested, click the links in the description down below. But more importantly than any of this, of course, is competitive pricing and fees. But I like, as you know, trade US stocks 24/5 with Tiger Trade. So, yes, we're already getting into the 24/5s in the markets. More importantly, when you come into earning season though, it allows people from overseas that, uh, especially in the world down under like we are, to potentially trade in times that isn't just insane, uh, such as 1:00 a.m. in the morning when the market's open. So, if you're interested in finding out more about Tiger Trade and, of course, Tiger Brokers, check them out in the links in the description down below. And there are quite a few countries that they're available in. So, definitely check it out, guys.
All right, let's jump on over here to high-yield bonds. First up, we always ask ourselves, has the bond market twitched? Has it flinched? The answer is again, no. There is absolutely no reason to say that the bond markets, just yet, are freaking out. Although the Oracle CDs, of course, have been going up. So, credit default swaps there have been widening, which does show there is some concern in the data center side. And I expect that to be more of a story as we go through 2026.
Now, this chart I think is a really excellent one. Basically, what it shows us is growth versus Oh, we need a good pen there. There we go. Growth versus, of course, value. And what you guys can see here is that growth has actually been declining in comparison to value when it comes to US 1000 stocks. So, these are two US1K kind of events, the growth versus the value, and value actually started to improve. And that suggests that actually the market is not only broadening, but it's also turning a little defensive, and something we haven't seen for quite some time. The last time we got this was, of course, before the falloff which happened during, of course, the whole tariff tantrum and, of course, during the period where we saw a sell-off because of concerns over Japanese bonds and everything going on there. We also did get a very similar thing that started in 2020, or actually started at the back of 2021, which obviously led into a serious decline there, and September of 2020, where we got a very different market over this period as well. So, it does suggest a broadening pattern. It also makes us start to question whether the market is sniffing something else. So, it's something we will watch in 2026. A very important chart indeed, and something I'm looking forward to covering with you guys.
So, on to the ones that we've liked recently. First up, oil services. Let's give a clap for oil services. Absolutely smashing a new little high here. Fantastic to see it doing that. And it just goes to show that asset selection is key. While everyone's jumping around clamoring for energy stocks, that was probably not the best trade this week. The better trades were, of course, precious metals, but oil services has managed to hold those highs and continue up. And remember, we saw that way before any of this geopolitical information came out. I also think that healthcare is continuing to look pretty good this year. Although it has come down the last session, it's still kind of pushing new highs, and we've obviously talked about that several times.
But what about US oil? Well, it got a bit of a spike, but it hasn't broken through those key resistances just yet. We will be, of course, alerting 60/50 plus and 30 and looking for that one. And gold, silver, and all of these other metals. They all improved a little bit, stabilizing over the last 24 hours after they hit those, of course, previous peak periods, and then they've sold off a little bit. Now, is it early to tell whether these are actually going to bounce up? Yes, we don't have too much, uh, kind of noise there or information there, but at least it's better than the decline. You can see here, silver almost went all the way back down to 70 an ounce. And, uh, if it does breach through $70 an ounce, guys, that's going to create an almighty double top. And then, of course, you can talk about serious weakness coming into silver. But for now, it is, look, I think more of a pit. We've already talked about this. When you get a move like we saw late last year, it's always going to become very volatile. When volatility enters the chat, the easy money's been made, and instead, we look for pits and we look for replication moving forward. So, I'm kind of, you know, obviously bullish macro-wise, bullish long-term wise, but on the short term, I'm still, you know, I would say conservative at this point.
Copper did decline a little bit after going up, but I still think it's holding a series of higher highs and higher lows, which is obviously positive. And Tesla starting to put a little bit of work in around 430. So, as you can see here, if we get through 440, that's good. We get through 460, that is fantastic. So, um, certainly starting to put some structure in at the exact area that we talked about, and that's because puts are at this zone. So, obviously, we're seeing quite a lot of puts, uh, come into the Tesla trade.
Chinese markets fell off, but they've come back to a level of support. Definitely watch this space. We'll have more on that in the last next video. And you could see defense spending, which is particularly hitting Germany and other markets. That's leading to some serious increases here across the other markets. So, some pretty nice stuff there. US 2K, you can see a new all-time high, which again shows broadening pattern, breadth. We've already talked about this heaps of times together. So, again, if you're a new member, make sure to subscribe, guys. This stuff is so important. And you can see here, these crosses, you know, look at this. This is so significant. I almost made this the video today because it's so big, but probably be the video maybe on the weekend. We'll talk about some more broadening patterns because you can see there's so much opportunity. And if we get through 38, we're getting through that supply structure breaking down with trend lines. It's a pretty big deal. And also remember I said if Russell starts to outperform this year in the last three months, it kind of has been. That's actually a little bit concerning. That's a broadening pattern, sure, and everyone's going to go celebrate it, but actually, it's what we expected. And at the same time, it's not notoriously that bullish actually over a 12-month read. So, once you go past 12 months, it starts to get a little bit nasty.
Let's go over to Bitcoin. Hm. Decline 945. Damn, 945 too tough. But nice little wick up here. And you'll notice at the start of the video, I had these two VWAPs that I've put in, and it did find bouncing off there, which I suspected it may. And I actually did this analysis in our private community over at fxevolution.com where we do the open. So, if you ever want to join that, 2026 could be the perfect year for you to do it. I think it's going to be pretty wild, wild market. So, of course, you get access to the community watch list, and you can ask questions about pairs, and we we cover them and talk about them together. So, uh, that's, of course, with me going through it live.
Now, you can see here nice little rejection. Maybe 92 plus could be kind of strong on the day trade, get above that previous day high, but really, it's all about 945 and 86. Nothing has changed for so long on this. We like this level here to 945. We broke 945. We're probably liking 10104, 106, but we just haven't managed to get there just yet.
Do remember this week, guys, is about unemployment numbers. I had a look at the previous results stuff, but I don't think that's going to help us too much, so I just admitted it from this video. Instead, we need to focus and do a review on, of course, non-farm payrolls. This is probably the most important read of the month. It's going to move yields round. Remember, the first move can be a little bit false. So, you've got to keep that in the back of your mind.
And as always, guys, make sure to subscribe. Click the links in the description down below if you want to follow us along, and, of course, make sure you support the guys that do support us making this show free and, of course, bring it to you on the internet, which is Tiger Brokers. If you're interested in finding out more about their special offers, links in the description. And, of course, if you're an FX Evolution member, there might be even a little bit of extra special for you. Thanks so much, guys. You have a fantastic day, and just remember, for now, it does look like industrials, it looks like XBI, and, of course, materials and everything are going up. So, what we're seeing here is a broadening pattern. It's not inherently bearish just yet, and it does suggest that, of course, the market is just finding new opportunities, and that's what we should be doing in 2026. Abundance mindset. See you in the next one. Bye for now.