Transcription
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to an incredible interview with the one and only Ben Cowan.
Ben, it's a pleasure to have you on the Cryptic channel.
Uh, it's it's a real honor. I've been watching your content for now three to four years. So, uh, thank you so much for coming on. How are you doing, Ben?
I'm doing great. Thanks for having me. It's a it's a pleasure to be here, and um, I'm happy to see uh, you know, someone your age right doing this stuff right. I feel like you're getting you're getting pretty far ahead of of your peers.
Thank you so much, man.
So guys, for um, just for you watching, uh, this interview is going to be uh, separated into five different questions. We're first going to cover Ethereum. Uh, now that Ethereum has officially come home, I want to ask Ben uh, if he thinks that this is a good time to buy, and then we will switch into some dubious speculation on Bitcoin, uh, talk about the global liquidity and Bitcoin correlation and if it's actually relevant, and then go into the S&P 500 outlook and finally end with the Bitcoin dominance and its effect on uh, the altcoin market.
But before we get into that guys, make sure to head to intothecryptoverse.com. Link is down in the description below to get your uh, plan. Uh, I've been using it. It's it's an incredible platform. I've been tracking all sorts of different Bitcoin data, and if you use if you use code CryptoKid when you're checking out, then you'll get a 10% discount if I'm not wrong. Actually, we can test it out. Click apply and see exactly how big of a discount we receive. Uh, there we go. It loads. Uh, wow, $15. So check it out guys. Link is down in the description. It's 15%, not 10%.
And with that said, uh, Ben, I'm going to switch over to your screen, and why don't you mind telling us about Ethereum and where we're heading next?
Yeah. So the whole idea with Ethereum, right, was that it would eventually come home. Uh, what's really interesting about it this cycle is is like every cycle throws us a curveball, right? Like last cycle, I I think you could really argue that it it really came home um in the posthaving year right of 2019. The cycle before that, you can see it did the same thing in the having year of 2016. This is the first cycle where it's doing so in the posthaving year, so I I think a lot of people kind of gave up on this idea because it just wasn't happening. Um, but what what typically happens is that ETH goes through this phase where it goes up during part of the market cycle but only because Bitcoin is going up, right? Only because Bitcoin is going up. And and actually you can see that it you know you can see how true that statement is when you overlay ETH Bitcoin onto this chart. You can see that every cycle there's this period where ETH kind of trends higher as ETH Bitcoin goes down, right? You can see it happened in 2016. It also happened over here in like 2018, 2019 where it had this rally up while Bitcoin was going up, but ETH Bitcoin was bleeding, and then it went home, and then of course it's happened again, right? ETHUSD was going up, which led a lot of people that were bullish on ETH to celebrate, but the reality is that it was getting completely devalued on its Bitcoin pair. You know, we saw ETH Bitcoin go from 0.08 to less than 0.02, 02. Um, it's gone down pretty far at this point. And so the whole idea is that at some point Bitcoin breaks down from like what would normally what you would normally assume, right? Like for instance, last February and March we saw Bitcoin go up, right? Um, the February and March before that we saw Bitcoin go up. This February and March we've actually seen Bitcoin go down. So it's deviated from some of that seasonality and it's sort of breaking that structure, which is allowing ETH to go home. And normally what has happened is that after it breaks down ETH drops, you know, 50%. Uh, here it was 50% with the pandemic; it ended up being 60%. And so far, you know, it's dropped about 40, I mean not quite 50. Uh, I guess it depends on how you measure it, but pretty close, right? I mean pretty close uh, to that to that idea of of a of a draw down, you know, 40 to 50%. And the question is is like, well, how far down is it going to go? I think what is relevant to look at in this situation is to think about Ethereum, and you can always stop me if I'm if I'm rambling too much, but um, I I think what's relevant is to think about Ethereum as sort of re-repeating a larger version of what happened over here because if you look at it through the lens of monetary policy it makes a lot of sense. Okay. During this period when ETH USD was going up, ETH Bitcoin was going down, and we were in quantitative tightening where the balance sheet of the Fed was going down. You can see that the balance sheet of the Fed started going up after ETHUSD went home, right? So QT ended after ETH broke into its logarithmic regression trend line. Now if you read the FOMC minutes from January, well they released in February, but if you read them, um, the Fed the average view is that quantitative tightening will end sometime about mid-year. Now they released that before this meltdown in the markets. So it's possible that they end QT sooner rather than wait until later on in the summer, but my guess is that you'll see quantitative tightening come to an end sometime in the next few months, especially given the current meltdown by the markets. Now I could be completely wrong about that. Um, but it it does seem like a a likely outcome. And so what I've sort of looked at on this chart are just how how many similarities there are in the lows, not the highs, but the lows. If you look at this uptrend over here that occurred during quantitative tightening last cycle and you compare it to the one that occurred during this cycle, what you'll notice is that every move this cycle has just been a 10x from what happened last cycle. Right? Instead of bottoming at 80, we bottomed at 800. And then the next higher low was at 100. If I zoom in, you can see what I'm talking about, right? If I zoom in on this, you can see we had a low at 80. We had a higher low at 100. We then had another higher low at at 150. And then ultimately it broke down just over 200. Now what's interesting is that ETH has been doing the exact same thing this cycle, just on a larger scale, which has caused many people to believe it's not playing out. But it first bottomed at 800, and then it had a higher low at 1,000, and then it had another higher low at 1,500, and then ultimately it broke down just over 2,000. Now I suppose it deviated a little bit here because it did get one more bounce, but ultimately this looks very similar, right? It looks really similar that you're just sort of seeing the same move. It's just 10x the move we had from the prior cycle. Now what happened last cycle is that ETH then dropped down to around 130 to 140, around 130 to 140. Note ETH just went to 1400, right? So again, it it feels like almost identical to what I remember happening in 2019, right? Where like it just felt like ETH was dying, and it felt like there was no coming back from it. In fact, further evidence that market conditions are similar include the fact that if you look at at something like ETH dominance, right? If you look at ETH dominance, one of things you'll note is that it's almost at the exact same level that it was at here in 2019, right? Like ETH dominance in 2019 went as low as 7%; it was technically 7.09%, and just this week we saw ETH dominance go to 7.39%. Right? So to me, it seems like things are playing out in a somewhat familiar fashion. And so the whole idea was that Ethereum would eventually go home. Once it breaks down, that will force looser monetary policy by the Fed. Right? That's the idea that it will force the Fed to to end quantitative tightening maybe sooner than they wanted to. And at that point, you might start to see altcoins go up against Bitcoin, right? But not until that happens. And and there's been a lot there's just been this idea, I think, where a lot of people keep seeing the Fed say they're slowing QT, and then people think it's alt season, but the problem is the wind's still blowing in the wrong direction. Right? Just because you're slowing quantitative tightening doesn't mean you don't have it. It just means the wind's not blowing as hard. And so I I I think we've gotten to the point now where Ethereum, and look, I could be wrong. It's important to always remember like, you know, it's completely possible that I could be wrong about this. It's possible that Ethereum is a relic and it won't recover. But I'm trying, you know, I'm more optimistic about it than that. I think it will. Um, but I think that if you look at a chart like this, what you can say is that Ethereum for the first time since 2020 is fairly valued, is right. It's fairly valued at this price. I know that seems crazy because, you know, a lot of people would say this seems cheap. It seems um, you know, it just seems so low. You know, how is the fair value not higher? But the cycles go through this weird thing where they like go up for a long period of time, and they they completely change in our mind like what we perceive as the fair value, right? Like in in 2018, ETH was at like 80 bucks, right? Like it was at $80. Um, and and then we went all the way up to like $4,800, and now it feels like $1,500 is so cheap. But remember this here is still a 10x from where we were around the same time through the lens of monetary policy last cycle, right? So I just I just have I just have two questions. I mean, incredible uh, that that was an incredible. I mean, I I was always I always had a question mark about, okay, what what does it actually mean that Ethereum is coming home, and this kind of breaks it down very well. Um, the first question I have is so you can see that in the previous cycle when quantitative easing begins, Ethereum has another drop before rocketing to the upside. So do you think with quantitative tightening ending and quantitative easing beginning, it's possible that Ethereum suffers one more draw down uh, probably to maybe the uh, the support line of the log band um, and then continue seeing the rocket uh, to wherever it decides to go?
It's possible. Um, you could also argue that the drop down there could occur before quantitative tightening ends. Um, I think that it's a great question honestly because I think a lot of people like most people completely gloss over that idea, right? They just think like QE means that the markets go up, right? But that's not always what the what QE means. Like it what QE can mean is that the macro is awful and and therefore the Fed's having to come to the rescue. But I don't in this case unless unless the markets just outright crash, right? The the S&P is already down 20%. You know, if it if it keeps dropping then it's possible the Fed could could start QE back up. But right now that's not my base case. My base case is not for QE to start. Jerome Powell said they will not start QE until interest rates are back at zero. So what I would argue right now is that the most likely outcome is not for QE to start, but it's just for QT to end. If you look at 2016 and 2017, right, the balance sheet of the Fed was fairly constant, right? You could just go into a situation where it it goes down, but then it just kind of flattens out, but you don't you don't get this right away, right? You don't get that. And you probably don't get something like that until it's more obvious that you know we're in like a full-blown recession or something like 2020. Um, so I I would Yeah. So I would I would probably argue that you'll likely see QT end before, you know, like there'll probably be some transition period before QE actually starts.
Okay, so that makes sense, and that means that, you know, altcoin season, I mean, I initially expected altcoin season to be a lot sooner, but um, you know, it could even extend, and this is my personal take, it could even extend to Q1 of 2026 before uh, we see like a proper altcoin season, but you know, uh, for my personal breakdown of of this analysis is that it's definitely a good time to be dollar cost averaging into Ethereum, but um, there is definitely more room for dropping. So I actually wanted to ask you uh, as a next question, do be speculation on Bitcoin, but since we mentioned uh, the stock market crashing, uh, would you mind if we went into the stock market first, the S&P specifically, um, and if you gave us your take on uh, if that was the final drop or would you be expecting um, more of a downside risk before continuing upwards?
Well, the first thing I would say is that anytime the market drops 20%, you at least have to be open-minded for it to be a low, right? Because and and you could argue like, well, what if we're in a recession, right? Could it drop more? Absolutely. Right? Absolutely. It's possible that we're in a left-translated cycle where the peak's already in and we drop another 20% from here, right? That has happened before. Not in my lifetime and certainly not in your lifetime. Uh, but if you look at like the 1970s, there's times when the market topped out around the change in administration and you got sort of a left-translated peak, and then the market went down for two years rather than a right-translated peak where basically the market ends up dropping like 30, 40%, sometimes even 50%, like you saw in the dot-com crash and the uh, financial crisis. But what a lot of people don't realize, and while it makes sense to be open-minded to those outcomes absolutely, like I'm actually already hedged. I hedged back in January. Um, you know, if you look at modern portfolio theory, it suggested going to like, you know, get making sure you were you were properly hedged like 1/3 cash, something like that. But there are plenty of recessions even like if even if we are in a recession, there are plenty of recessions that are only 20% drops, right? I mean, you had one in 1990; you also had one in in uh, 1990 or sorry 1981 when Reagan took office, there was about a 20 to 30% drop. In 1980, we had a recession that was a 20% drop. Right? So you you can certainly have lows after only 20% drops. I I'm so sorry, I want to answer your question, but I'm so super sorry to cut you, but just now that you mentioned Reagan, so I I don't know American history too well, so I can be completely wrong, but just to ask you so when Reagan was president, he was also heavy on tariffs. Is that is that correct?
Oh, I think he he wasn't he wasn't heavy on tires. I think we're we're losing you a little bit.
Hello for a second.
Okay, now you're back. Can you hear back?
Yes, now I can hear.
Yeah.
Um, from what I remember, again, I wasn't even born in the 80s. Um, but from what and maybe my history is wrong, but from what I I mean I've seen plenty of clips of him talking bad about tariffs and saying that uh, tariffs are are not a good thing. So I mean it's possible he implemented some tariffs. I'm not saying he didn't implement any, but I don't think it's nec I don't think it's anywhere close to the scale that what we're currently seeing.
Okay.
Okay.
Yeah.
Cool. So sorry for cutting you.
No, that's fine. The last time that tariffs were implemented at this scale was probably like a hundred years ago or something. Um, it hasn't happened in probably anyone's lifetime on on earth right now uh, for the most part. Um, but yeah, basically like you get these like 20% draw downs, and and before we move on, I mean, I I know we've moved on from ETH, but before we fully move on from it, I just want to mention one more thing, especially since we're talking about the stock market. Um, there's this pattern with the S&P 500 that that actually played out, and I've been tracking this for probably like over a year now where you basically have like a triple top on the S&P, right? And then you have a low and then a lower low, and then the final low is a recession low, right? Like that was the recession was that final low, that final tag of the trend line. So when I look at something like Ethereum and I look at that same pattern, it looks really similar, right? It really does. You see a same like sort of that same triple top, and then you're getting these lower lows. And I'm just wondering, you know, as you pointed out earlier, if we do go further into the regression band, like what if that is a recession low and everyone thinks the recession is sort of like ahead of us, you know, but then what happens if that ends up being it, right? Like it's possible because if you actually look at uh, the Atlanta Fed, they're projecting we're in a they're projecting negative GDP for Q1 already, right? So I mean it's possible we're already in one. And it's possible that's already playing out for Ethereum right now just like it did for the S&P 500 back in um, 1990. And and and the way that I found that idea was if you look at I mean basically through the lens of of of interest rates and whatnot, if you look at at interest rates and you subtract out the 2-year yield, what you'll notice is that this is exactly what this is. I mean, it did basically the same exact thing that it did in 1990 where interest rate the you know, US interest rates minus the 2-year yield spiked up to that level right there. That's the recession, right? That's that 1990 recession. And I'm just wondering, are we repeating that now? Obviously, the other comparison is the financial crisis, but I want to be optimistic, right? I don't want to assume that we're going into something like that. That would be very bad for everyone. I mean, it would mean prices go much lower than anyone's currently thinking. Um, so I'm I'm truly hoping that that doesn't happen, right? I really hope that that doesn't happen and that it ends up just being, you know, more of your garden variety recession if in fact uh, we get one. But what are the interesting
Yeah, go ahead.
So I mean, if if you're I wanted to ask so if that is the case, right? So if if we are going into a full-blown in recession, if that is what we can expect, what are the levels that you would be uh, seeing on the S&P, and then we can pivot into Bitcoin and look at what you would think uh, Bitcoin would do?
Yeah, I mean, any even recessions, sometimes they just bottom out at 20%, right? So you have to be aware that that could be it. Um, I would I would basically just look every like 10% down, right? Like 20%, 30%. And then some recessions can get pretty bad, uh, 40 to 50%. Um, so I would just kind of look at at those levels. What I mostly look at um, when it when it comes to to the S&P 500 is I would just sort of defer to this risk metric that I have for it, right? So like right now the risk metric on on the S&P is 0.5, right? So it's kind of like right in the middle. But you can also see that like historically while it can go lower, it doesn't spend that much time at the lower wristbands, right? So it's you know, whenever it does drop down to these levels, like I generally think it's a good idea uh, to DCA, especially cuz you know, for people like you and I, we're we're not looking to retire anytime soon, you know, so might as well just uh, get it get it for the long run. But the the last thing I want to mention here on the S&P 500 before we move on to Bitcoin and and this is sort of the optimistic view, right? This is sort of the optimistic view that what if we're repeating what happened in uh, 1998? Because what what's interesting is if you look at the the stock market divided by the money supply, what you'll notice is that this this bull run started right here in October of 2022. Um, and you can see a similar area in 1996, and then it rallied up to the same level that it got rejected at, right? So the the area that it just got rejected at in February is the same level it got rejected at in July of 1998, and then it it basically got a 20% drop. I mean, it it technically dropped a little more than 20%; it was like 24%. But what's really fascinating is that the drop we just got was actually that first wick. And if if you zoom in here, it was that first wick down by the S&P against M2 against the money supply, right? It went up, and then it came back down, swept that low, and then it went even into a large
I think we lost lost you know, irrelevant.
Yeah, you're back.
So I was going to say that that's also that's also a relevant thing I think to consider. I mean, the counterpoint of course is if you know this was April of the uh, post-election year back then. So I think a lot of it's going to be come down to like there's probably going to be a bounce at some point in the spring. Um, and whether it leads to a a higher high or a lower high depends on two things. It depends on um, how long we stay down here before we get a bounce because the longer we stay down here, the more companies will be forced to lay people off. And if people get laid off, that can lead to a negative feedback loop where then risk assets go down because you know, people are getting laid off, therefore they're not investing as much, and it just kind of goes into a ne a really bad cycle that's hard to get out of. So that's kind of the sort of more optimistic view is if it's just kind of repeating what it did over here where it hangs out here for a few weeks and then gets moved back up.
Makes perfect sense. So I mean, again, yeah, it's impossible to call the exact bottom, but from all the things that Ben has showed me in the past 10-15 minutes or so, it just looks like a very good idea to be dollar cost averaging, and obviously not going like 100x leverage into anything. But um, if you're an investor for the long run and you can tolerate that risk, um, I think buying at these levels and holding makes perfect sense.
So with that, um, Ben, what do you see um, as your dubious Bitcoin speculation? What do you see on midterm and macro? Uh, where would you expect Bitcoin to be by the end of 2025?
Well, I think a lot of that depends on how low it goes here before it bounces. Obviously, people have looked at the correlation between Bitcoin and like the global money supply, right? Or an approximation of the global money supply. I think everyone's seen that correlation at this point. Um, I I think a lot of that question kind of depends on if Bitcoin stays above the 2024 high. Okay. If Bitcoin stays above the 2024 high or even if it just wicks below it, like you can see in 2017, Bitcoin had a correction, and it tested the 2016 high, right? Um, so the way I'm operating it is like this, right? And I think it's important it's really important here to not be deterministic, to not go into this saying like it has to play out like this because I've been burned many times in my past thinking like this is the way it has to play out, and I'm going to focus on that. So it's an if-then statement, right? For me. For me, what it is is if Bitcoin holds support up here, right? While the S&P is struggling with the whole tariff stuff, right? You know, and I don't know how long that's going to go on for, but if Bitcoin can hold support above the 2024 high, then it bodess well for later this year, and it would likely there's a higher chance you could see new all-time highs for
Bitcoin, if it can stay above that 2024 high. If it can't, and it instead gets a drop to this trend line here, to the low 60s, right to the low 60s, unfortunately, it would, to me—and I could be wrong, right—but to me it would likely signify a left-translated cycle. Meaning what would happen is you would, you know, you would see it drop down here; it would get a big rally into August, you know, to a macro lower high, and then it would just be downhill from there. Like that's what a left-translated cycle would look like.
So what I'm looking for right, like I de-risked some back in January and February, what I'm looking for right now is where does this bottom out? Because if it, if it bottoms out above the 2024 high, then it, it bodes well, right? It, it, it, it supports the idea of a right-translated cycle. If you're not, if your viewers are not familiar with what a right-translated cycle is, it's basically where you get a peak in Q4 of the post-halving year. Right, this is Q4 2021, Q4 2017, and Q4 2013. Right, so all the major peaks by Bitcoin have been in Q4 of the post-halving year. If history repeats, it'll be Q4 of 2025, right? That's what everyone hopes for. I'm just saying, like, hope for the best, plan for the worst, right? So just remember, if it does drop into the low 60s, while you would still get a really big rally uh out into Q3, um, it would more likely result, unfortunately, in a lower high for this cycle, and then we'd have to just wait, you know, through, you know, probably until 2027.
Oh, dude, that, that sucks, because I mean, I've been waiting for like a massive, massive, you know, parabolic super cycle type thing since, you know, basically 2021. And it sucks that we may not get that. And you know, I can tell that, you know, obviously with diminishing returns too, there is unfortunately a high probability um of that happening. But um, yeah, you're really young though, like it doesn't, you know, when you're young, it, it pays to be more optimistic and to take on more risk, right? Because usually, usually what happens is the bears sound smart, and the bulls make money, right? You know, normally happens, the bulls make money. Um, and even if, even if we don't get that, my long-term view is that Bitcoin will still go to 300K, 500K. It'll just take another cycle or two to get there. Yeah. Like it'll just take. So like, you know, in, in 10 years, you're still going to be, you know, younger than I am now, right? Like Bitcoin's probably going to be a lot higher at that point. Um, and it kind of just makes it so the short-term stuff just doesn't really matter, right? And, and by the way, like the, the reason I even am talking about this is because I, I noticed this comparison back in, in March of 2024 with the launch of the QQQ. And this is something that I did not experience because again, I was, I was, you know, in elementary school when, when the QQQ launched. But the, the reason why I've been a little bit on edge and, and even thinking about left-translated cycles is because the QQQ, when it launched, it was an ETF tracking tech stocks. It topped exactly 54 weeks later, right? And then what happened is it got a big drop, and it bottomed in mid-April, right, which is about where we are right now. And then it got a large counter-turn rally into August before we went into a recession.
Right now, you could still get this rally that leads to a new all-time high, as long as the market doesn't drop too much. But look at this right here. If you look at a, a, um, we put a price label on this, this wick right here is 63, right? And what I was mentioning with Bitcoin, you don't want to see it go down to that level, right? Because that's basically the low 60s. It would, what it would look like to me is it would just look like it would look too closely related to the QQQ. But remember how I said the QQQ topped 54 weeks after it launched before the recession, you know, before it entered into a downtrend that led to a recession? Unfortunately, right, unfortunately, uh, you know, you might be surprised to know that Bitcoin topped exactly 54 weeks after its ETF launched. Um, and, and that happened to just be January 20th, which was when Gary Gensler was resigning and Trump was taking office. And you know, you're just pricing in perfection, you're, you know, you're pricing in a strategic Bitcoin reserve, you're pricing in deregulation, uh, you're pricing in a whole lot of stuff. So this is why I de-risked back in, in January and February was because I was worried about a left-translated cycle. But I have to be honest, so far Bitcoin has actually held up better, a lot better than the QQQ, at least up until this point, right, up until this point. Because what happened when the QQQ topped is it actually got [Music] an almost a 50% drop, which that I think broke confidence in the market, right? And that is what we're struggling with right now is that confidence so far I don't think has been lost, right? I think there's still enough optimism um where it's possible we still get a right-translated cycle, because I mean, look, Bitcoin's only down what, 30%? Right, like, I mean, who cares, you know, it's down 30%? Even in 2017, you know, in 2017 when it tested the 2016 high, guess how much it dropped, right? I mean, it was, yeah, like it was, it was just over a 30% drop.
So if it is a right-translated cycle, so again, sorry for cutting you. So we, I mean, I, I completely agree. If it is a left, then we probably retest 66, and then we see a bit of a bounce and then enter a bear market. But if it is a right-translated cycle, then, then what would you be expecting for the price? Yeah. So if it's right-translated, I would, I would generally expect it to find support around this level, probably over the next like month or so, right? Um, and kind of like what it did over here, right, back in 2024 where it kind of just hung around. I think we've lost you again. There we go. On these low levels, it, it found a reason to go up, and that was because the unemployment rate. Am I back now? Uh, yes, you're back. You're back. Let me know when I'm back. Okay. Yeah. So I was just saying like, I, I think a lot of people are more, more so blaming tariffs right now for why Bitcoin's going down. And honestly, that's probably the reason. But the only thing that I, I, I look back at with 2024 is that one of the reasons Bitcoin went down was because the unemployment rate was going up. And note that Bitcoin basically topped out around the time that the unemployment rate started going up again. So we could just be repeating that. So if, if it is a right-translated cycle and Bitcoin stays above the 2024 high, and by the way, if it wicks to 69K, I think it's still okay, right? Like I don't think you have to just say, all right, it's a left-translated cycle because it goes into the 60s, because even in 2017 when it got that drop down, um, it did technically go below the 2016 high, but just on a wick, right? It was just for like a day. So if, if Bitcoin were to test say like the 2021 high, even though it would be technically below where it was in March, I still wouldn't operate deterministically, you know, I still wouldn't. And one of the reasons, I mean, like the NASDAQ is already at that level, right? I mean, I think the NASDAQ already tested the 2021, yeah, like it already tested it, um, so you know, I, I think that if, if it can hold support there, then what you would generally expect would be some type of rally kind of like later on in the spring and summer. Um, I know a lot of times like seasonality, a lot of people think about like the summer as not being a great time for crypto, and, and actually usually they're right. But if you look at quarterly returns for Bitcoin in, um, you know, throughout the years, what you'll notice is that in, if it loads, uh, what you'll notice is that in, from what I remember in 2017, you know, Q1 wasn't really that great, right? But as you got into the middle part of the year, uh, the markets did a lot better.
So if it's a right-translated cycle, the funny thing is is whether it's a right-translated or a left-translated, there's probably going to be a rally sometime in like the spring, summer timeframe, right? Like regardless of whether it's right-translated or left-translated, because if it's left-translated and we go into the low 60s, there's going to be a massive bounce more than likely, right? Um, if it's right-translated and we just hold support above 70K or even 69K, you're still likely going to get a rally. So I, I think there's a good chance you'll get a rally regardless, kind of in the as we get later on in the spring and the summer. Sort of mid-April was what I was thinking. I mean, it could extend into May, but, um, yeah, I mean, so I, but, but I still would expect diminishing returns. Like I, I wouldn't, I wouldn't go into it thinking that like Bitcoin's going to go to 300K this cycle. Yeah. Yeah, I actually went into, I went into a 0.5 Bitcoin bet with Carl U because he expects it's going to go to uh 300K, but it's, I think it's, I mean, even, even if I don't expect global monetary debasement happening in like this cycle, um, and everybody shifting to a Bitcoin standard. So yeah, like I think we're just going to see diminishing returns, right? And like that's an unfortunate side effect. Um, and maybe, maybe eventually the market evolves and does something different. Um, but I think that's the most likely outcome. So like, you know, even 120, 130, 150, I mean, those numbers are possible, and diminishing returns still be a thing, right? Like it doesn't even break diminishing returns. Um, this is, you know, the ROI from the low. So you can see we're already currently below the last two cycles. If you look at it as measured from the peak, by the way, we actually just crossed below the 2016 cycle. So it, it goes to show you that things aren't that different though from, from like the 2016 cycle. It feels different because the price has been going down. But you could almost argue that we just got ahead of where we should be because of all the ETF hype and the strategic reserve hype. We just kind of got maybe too far ahead of ourselves. So, if you, if you, if you, if you include the all-time high being created before the halving, then technically we are on par with 2017, right? Yeah. So like what I hope, what I hope happens is I hope that Bitcoin can, you know, can, can find support no lower than say 69K, right? No lower than that. If it can, I'm going to assume that there's still a good chance we get a right-translated peak, right? If it can, if it can start moving up and, and, and not go below that level. If it goes below that level and goes in the low 60s, I, I think like while it's not impossible for a right-translated peak to still occur, it would be, it would just be very difficult, because you know, if you think about like the four-year cycle, like we don't have that much time left, you know? Because normally what happen, and I guess things can change, but normally the midterm years are not good for crypto, right? Like 2014, 2018, and 2022. So the next one's 2026 theoretically, right? Um, so if you operate deterministically and assume that 2026 is a bear market, you know, we're just running out of time, you know, to really get, to really get moving. So I, I think that's the reason why if it, if it goes into the, the low 60s, I just don't know that there'll be enough time to repair for the structure to repair itself before 2026. Yeah. Like before the bear market year, 100%.
That was incredibly explained, I think. Um, I mean, the audience understood exactly those targets very well. So thank you so much for that. I'm actually going to skip the global liquidity question because we already did, uh, you already did analysis with uh M2 and the S&P. So I think it's irrelevant. Um, but the final very quick uh question that I would like to ask is obviously it can't be a Benjamin Cohen interview without Bitcoin dominance. So uh, what is your, what is your takes on dominance, and um, depending on what your analysis is, how would it impact altcoins? Yeah. So, so I'm still the opinion that altcoins are going to bleed against Bitcoin. Um, I, you know, I haven't bought, like, I haven't, like, I mean, for 2023, for really 2022, 2023, 2024, and up until very, very recently, like my portfolio was basically just Bitcoin, right? Um, in terms of my crypto portfolio, right? But I mean, I also have stocks, I have precious metals, I have, you know, I have fixed income. Like I'm diversified, but my crypto portfolio was basically just Bitcoin because I got bullish on Bitcoin dominance back over here. What I think is going on though, I, I think that we're, we're about to enter an inflection point where a lot of what I've talked about on my channel is about to change, right? Where I think Bitcoin dominance is getting close to the end of the rally. Right, it's getting close. I'm not, I'm not saying that it's there just yet, but it, I think it's getting close. And I want to explain why. First of all, if you look at something that's maybe even more important than Bitcoin dominance is to, because if you think about it like last cycle, the reason why Bitcoin dominance was important was because like we didn't really have stable coins, right? And so Bitcoin was sort of like the flight to safety. Okay, this cycle stable coins are more of a thing. And so when you, when you actually include, when you look at Bitcoin dominance plus USDT dominance plus USDC dominance, you get a chart that looks like this. Right? And what you'll notice is that last cycle this metric topped when it hit 74 to 75%. Right, when it hit 74 to 75%, this is when Bitcoin dominance topped. And it topped when the Fed ended QT. Now, as I've said before, the Fed doesn't care about your altcoin, doesn't care about my altcoin, doesn't care about anyone's altcoins. But I do think that the crypto markets, I think the altcoin market can give us insight into the health of the, you know, consumer, you know, um, if people are buying alts, they're probably doing okay in life, and they don't need, you know, they're not struggling as much. Maybe they're, they're, they're doing that. But what you'll notice is that this metric just went all the way up to almost 73%. Okay, what's interesting about that is that when it hit that same level last cycle, the Fed ended quantitative tightening one month later, right? Well, there's a, there's an FOMC meeting in May. And by the way, if you look at um, the FOMC minutes from January, they already said they're, they're probably going to, in the average view is that they're going to end quantitative tightening midyear. Now that was before the stock market dropped 20%, right? So my guess at this time is that the Fed will end quantitative tightening in either May, June, or July. That's what I think. Either May, June, or July. And I think that this final move by this metric, right, this final move by, you know, this is the Bitcoin dominance plus USDT dominance plus USDC dominance, that final move will probably be accompanied by Bitcoin dominance going to 66%. Okay, so if you look at, at a fib retracement, you can see that, you know, every time it hits one of these milestones, it gets rejected, and then eventually it breaks through. I'm thinking that that next milestone is going to be right here, that 66% level, which is kind of a nice number because it's two-thirds of the cryptoverse, right? Bitcoin would be worth approximately two-thirds of the cryptoverse. That's my target, right, is 66%. Now, in order to get there, in order to get there, there has to be a little bit more pain in the altcoin market on their Bitcoin pairs. And what I think needs to happen is that all Bitcoin pairs, this chart is total three minus USDT divided by the market cap of Bitcoin. What you'll notice is that for the last couple of cycles, this metric tops out when the altcoin market cap reaches par with Bitcoin. So like whenever the altcoin market cap collectively is worth the same value as Bitcoin, that's when they top out, right? Like that's the end of alt season. And it bottoms out when the altcoin market cap is approximately 1/4th of Bitcoin's market cap, right? So 25%. So what I keep thinking is that it's going to go to that level. Now this is an approximation. It might not go all the way down to 0.25 because USDT is, I mean, I think it very well could, but USDT is not the only stable coin, right? If you include USDC as well, you can see that it's already at 33 rather than say 37. Okay. So, and, and by the way, it would still imply going to 0.25. So what I think is going to happen is I, I think there's going to be one, you know, there's going to be another drop by altcoins against Bitcoin, maybe down another 20 to 25%, you'll probably see the Fed pivot where they, they end quantitative tightening, and then at that point, my guess is that all Bitcoin pairs will bottom, right? Because that's exactly where they bottomed last cycle, right? When the Fed ended quantitative tightening. So that's my base case right now. Um, and by the way, for the people that, you know, if you've given up on this idea, one thing to consider is that in the 2016, 2017 cycle, all Bitcoin pairs went to the range low in November of 2017, right? November of 2017. And somehow we still miraculously got an alt season, right? And even though there wasn't much time left, there was just two months left, but it, it, it happened nevertheless. What really happens in crypto is that we get an alt season that lasts one or two months, and then people dream about it for the next four years, you know? Yeah. Um, yeah, it's brutal. It's brutal. But I would say the reason why I keep saying no alt season is because I think in order to get alt season, you need to go down here first, or at least get closer, right? Once you get down here, then it doesn't mean it has to happen immediately, but it's at least in the cards, right? Like it's a possibility. Yeah. And especially now when you look at, u, I mean, you said it perfectly with the average consumer, I mean, um, credit card debt per capita in the US is an all-time high. Uh, savings per capita all-time low, whereas in 2021 it was completely the opposite. So there has to be some sort of economic stimuli before altcoins can go to, uh, go into altcoin season.
But Ben, I mean, dude, this was the most incredible video I've made ever on my channel. So uh, really thank you so much, um, your points were incredibly clear, and um, I think you're going to see, I mean, if, if you guys are watching the live shows and, and the videos in the future, I think you'll see a lot of inspiration and influence from what Ben has um, you know, conducted as his analysis over on uh this video. So Ben, thank you so much for watching. It was fantastic. We actually did 44 minutes, so a classic Ben Cowan video. Perfect. I like it. I knew, I knew we were going to do it in 20. We couldn't have done it in 20. So thank you so much for joining, man. Hope to see you in person in Vegas. Guys, if you're not going to Las Vegas for the Bitcoin conference, definitely head there if you can. It's going to be incredible. Nashville was fantastic from what I've heard. So guys, thank you so much for watching. Thank you Ben for joining. Uh, Into the Cryptoverse link is going to be in the description again, code cryptokid for 15%. And also link to Ben's channel if you're somehow not subscribed. So guys, thank you for watching. Take care, and I'll see you all on the next video. Yes, tell me. One thing. Yes, if you're here, guys, and you're watching from my channel, make sure you subscribe. Uh, thank you so much, channel as well, because you know, I mean, we want to, we want to bring new people into the space, we want young people in the space, we want to see crypto grow in the future, and the way to do that is support people like him who are making videos when they're um, you know, pretty young and they show an interest in this stuff. So make sure you subscribe and show support to him as well. You're incredible, Ben. Thank you. Thank you so much. Thank you. It's, it was, it was an absolute honor. Um, I love what you do. So u, yeah, thank you so much. I don't know what else to say. Uh, thank you for watching, and guys, I'll see you on the next video very soon. Take care, and as always, bye-bye.