Transcription
After you, Mr. Trump, posted that you would immediately begin an operation to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, the whole world probably has questions, professor. Will it really be a blockade, or is this a threat to initiate negotiations? >> Therefore, to blockade like this, we have to see if the negotiation points have ended. Therefore, this may not be over, it still exists, but they are playing a strong card, which is a blockade. A blockade for what? To pressure Iran. Iran, Iran cannot collect revenue from this. And at the same time, it is called what? Pressure to lead to negotiations. Both sides are in a state of political fatigue. It's just like something is ripe but not fully ripe. This is what makes this negotiation. And another thing, we will observe. >> This kind of negotiation in Obama's time took 2 years, the same issue, to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons in exchange for various things. It took 2 years and was always bumpy. Trump will probably do this. First, what is it? Continue to fight. When fighting continues, Trump's economy is also under pressure from the country. Gas has doubled. There will be an election. Trump is under pressure. The second way out is to continue negotiations. And find a way out. The third way is what is being done now, which is what? 1. Increase pressure on Iran. Don't forget that the strait is what? It is leverage that Iran must keep, because if this is released, the leverage will disappear completely. Therefore, it will be a switch to turn on and off. So Trump will use this to pressure. >> But Trump said that the blockade that will start immediately, professor, will have other countries participating. Does that mean there will be a deal with allied forces to jointly pressure or to jointly open fire in the area of the Strait of Hormuz, professor? After you, Mr. Trump, posted that you would immediately begin an operation to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, the whole world probably has questions, professor. Will it really be a blockade, or is this a threat to initiate negotiations? >> A blockade is a form of threat. And denial has two aspects. But if it is a blockade, does it mean that the nuclear deal has ended? The nuclear deal means that neither Iran, Israel, nor America will attack Iran. But the actual agreement may be viewed differently because Iran says, hey, including Hezbollah, including America, including Israel, does not include Hezbollah or Lebanon, they are still fighting. Therefore, to blockade like this, we have to see if the negotiation points have ended. Therefore, this may not be over, it still exists, but they are playing a strong card, which is a blockade. A blockade for what? To pressure Iran. Iran, Iran cannot collect revenue from this. And at the same time, it is called what? Pressure to lead to negotiations. Simply put, this negotiation, which lasted 21 hours, let's analyze it carefully. It is the first time since 1979 that there has been a meeting at such a high executive level. This is since 1979, which is the first time. In 2015, there was a similar negotiation, the six-party agreement. At that time, it was a meeting between high-level executives, but not face-to-face, it was by phone. Obama. So this time, it means what? Both sides see the necessity to talk. To what level? Vice President. And this is Iran's proposal. Because Iran does not want to talk to Trump's son-in-law, does not want to talk to Wickoff, because they don't understand each other very well. Therefore, they want to talk. And another thing, the Vice President knows that he disagrees with Trump's policy of waging war. So he hopes to get the Vice President. But the Vice President also knows that his life, his future, depends on Trump. Therefore, whatever he does, even if he disagrees, he must accept that this is something he may disagree with, but as Vice President, whatever the President orders, he must do. Therefore, this is a part. But what is interesting is that the high-level talks from Iran are also very high. The Speaker of Parliament and the Foreign Minister. Therefore, both sides came and came. Negotiated. They came in large numbers. The city was closed. It was like a ghost town. They stayed for 21 hours. So if we analyze it like this, we ask why I used the term "both sides" to create this situation of war weariness. And this war weariness, how does it happen? It means that both sides, in English, call it deadlock or stalemate. They fight back and forth. America, simply put, misjudged the situation, thinking that Iran was very comfortable and it would end quickly. So Iran, it turns out, has fangs and can fight back, but uses its fangs to create costs. Create costs by using a strategy called what? We have talked about what? Defense Strategy, which is Decentralized. Placing thousands of points and being able to command to attack costs, which means attacking American forces, attacking allies, from oil, gas, to the most important thing, which is tourism. Everything. And most importantly, they got it without initially thinking of closing the strait. They didn't close it, but in reality, they had to ask them. Therefore, this is the highest bargaining chip. Therefore, in this case, Iran is in a strong position. You observe the sky, they can't fight directly. They are still hesitant to play outside, but they can't defend themselves. They are bombed. Trump came out and said, I bombed Israel, bombed thousands of times. Therefore, if it is like this, we can say that both sides are in a state of political fatigue, but it is like something that is ripe but not fully ripe. This is what makes this negotiation. And another thing, we will observe. This kind of negotiation in Obama's time took 2 years, the same issue, to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons in exchange for various things. It took 2 years and was always bumpy. And you observe, in books, which we don't see in Thailand if we don't read Iranian books, they say that in this case, they don't trust. But what they say is that this is the beginning. >> They say this and then say what? They continue to say, where is it? It starts and ends. So, simply put, they continue to say it has just begun. So what does that mean? It's enough. They continue to say what now? It's going to reach the end. Do you see? Therefore, if you read the Economist's new issue, it will say that the wind is still a part of it. They are still facing problems. The meaning is that the negotiation is not over, it can continue. Therefore, when we understand this, why is there so much excitement? It is because we must admit that both sides are top negotiators. Iran is also very skilled. Because negotiators, they negotiate very difficult things. They will start with what they call maximalism, which is to set the bar very high. But deep down, there is a part that is minimalism, which is that if they get this much, it's enough. They don't have to set it high, asking for 100 points, saying I'll get 100 points, but in reality, just passing is enough. And both sides are like this. Therefore, in the initial stage, there will be problems and conflicts. But what we need to continue to look at is whether this minimalism can find a way out. This is important. Therefore, what is important is why they cannot agree. This is very important. First, America is pressuring Iran. Iran, first, you must not have nuclear weapons. And importantly, Iran has never said it wants to build nuclear weapons. This must be understood. Iran says it wants to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes. But America wants an affirmative commitment, do you see? Commitment, meaning sign it, saying, hey, I will not have nuclear weapons. This is where Iran feels dissatisfied. You are pressuring them, because they themselves have never said they want nuclear weapons. This is one thing they say, hey, you are pressuring me. Second, what is it? Enrichment of uranium. This is something that will take a long time to discuss, because Iran says it must enrich uranium in its country. But America has clearly stated that if this commitment is made, it means you must not enrich uranium in your country. And importantly, you must return 800 pounds of enriched uranium that you made when you violated the six-party agreement, when America withdrew. So you increased enriched uranium from the prohibited 3.67% to 60-90%, which is a weapon. And kept it all. America bombed it. But when it was bombed, did it go underground? Because America demands that you return it, not return it, but send it to me. They are pressuring here. And another thing is that America says the Strait of Hormuz must be under American control. Therefore, when it is like this, Iran says, hey, you are giving us an ultimatum. It's like a surrender. Therefore, it ends with refusal. Because Iran feels that in this game, it's not just me who is injured, you are also injured. Otherwise, you would surrender. Would you stop fighting if you were comfortable? In this way, Iran simply says, they use the method of withdrawing. They say, if so, but Iran says it's not over. In the sense of, hey, there is still room for negotiation. Now, what should America do? America has two options. The first option is three options. The first is to fight. If they fight, is it not a trivial matter? If they fight, will America win? They will bomb all the bridges, bomb the electricity. It will go back to the Stone Age. In fact, Trump said this, and Iran doesn't believe it. The world doesn't believe it either. But you must admit that Iran and the world say, hey, we don't believe Trump, but Trump is a madman. Therefore, playing with a madman, no matter how much you don't believe it, don't underestimate him too much. He can be crazy. This is why Iran. >> Iran doesn't believe it, but in the last 2 hours, they agreed to a ceasefire and met. This is the reason, do you understand? Therefore, playing with Trump, it is beneficial to show that I have a madman there, I can bring him out. But Trump, first. >> Yes. >> Yes. Therefore, in this case, Trump will probably do this. First, what is it? Continue to fight. When fighting continues, Trump's economy is also under pressure from the country. Gas has doubled. There will be an election. Trump is under pressure. Therefore, this means that the cost has increased. The second way out, what to do? The second way out is to continue negotiations. And find a way out. This is another way, where the issue of the ceasefire has not ended, right? It's just a ceasefire, but waiting for the situation to talk in two weeks. And in two weeks, the professor said it won't end, but there will be a continuation. The third way is what is being done now, which is what? 1. Increase pressure on Iran. Do you understand? Increase pressure, do what? Do what? Block the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz and prohibit all ships from entering here so that Iran cannot collect money. Because Iran insists that it must collect money from the Strait of Hormuz. America says, hey, I control the Strait of Hormuz. Because Iran does not agree. Don't forget that the Strait of Hormuz is what? It is leverage that Iran must keep, because if this is released, the leverage will disappear completely. Therefore, it will be a switch to turn on and off. So Trump will use this to pressure. At the same time, there are two points: pressure, but the bombing is still stopped. Simply put, the ceasefire agreement still exists, but they want to use this to pressure to find a way to negotiate further. The second pressure, when pressured, what happens? Oh, they don't negotiate, they don't respect it, they bomb. Do you understand? In this case, it means that they say that currently, we have to see if the pressure they are applying is still related to the nuclear deal. If it still exists, it means that both sides are playing poker. And again, even stronger, which is what? Pressure, and what? The ceasefire agreement is not respected. This is risky. Because if it escalates, it means that what Trump fears most is the stock market falling, the price of oil rising. Therefore, this will make the situation worse. Therefore, this is a part. But it is not surprising if this is released, it will not be long before they must find a way out together, both sides. That is, a temporary ceasefire. But what is important is that if there is a blockade and the nuclear negotiation is still being maintained by both sides, this does not include one side. It means that both sides are playing poker. What is important here is that I want us to read this. This is very important. When we talk, go read books, read articles. It was just published about 2-3 days or 3-4 days ago. Written by an expert in global negotiation. This article is in Forbes, not in a book. Forbes has two parts. One is online, including books. But there is one new article published every week. This one just came out. I understand it's only been out for 2-2 days. Professor, I've read it since I first came in, 2-3 days ago. The title is "The Deal Must Continue." It means that the nuclear deal must continue, and it uses the theory of the "One Dollar Auction" to explain it. They give this reason: expert negotiators. What is an auction? There is a one-dollar auction. Two parties bid. The first person says $1.10. The other party says $1.15. The other party says $1.20. They compete back and forth, almost $2. Imagine this situation. If two parties know that if they continue to fight, both will lose. Because, simply put, they create pressure and increase their own costs. Therefore, what must both sides do in the end? They call it "Gai Xi" in Chinese, which is compromise. Compromise must happen. They are outbidding each other, right, professor? >> What? >> After, after, after they outbid each other, right, professor? >> Yes, yes, exactly. Therefore, this is what has come out. Now we are in a game called the dollar auction. Therefore, now America is pressuring Iran, but Iran does not agree, does not pressure, does not agree. Therefore, they do not agree to the extent of 21 hours. This is equivalent to saying they do not agree. Now, what will America do? 1. Does Trump dare to start a new war? And don't forget, if Trump starts a war, the Yellow Sea forces cannot stay here for long. Because, what? The forces are taken from the Indo-Pacific or other areas. Therefore, Trump himself must think that the cost of a new war is very high now. Why should he have to surrender? Because the second option is what? It is to pressure. This is what they are doing. Pressure to lead Iran. Another thing that makes it very exciting is pressure combined with what? The issue of the ceasefire. It's not called not respecting it. There are three parts. Therefore, if the ceasefire remains, this makes the fatigue of both sides even clearer. >> Yes, but Trump said that the blockade that will start immediately, professor, will have other countries participating. Does that mean there will be allied forces to jointly pressure or to jointly open fire in the area of the Strait of Hormuz, professor? >> Yes. >> We see that Trump is pressuring NATO member states, but not all NATO member states, led by France, Britain, Germany, and several other NATO countries. And that's not all. At that time, he pressured NATO to help. Now, these 3-4 countries have gathered other countries. Now there are about 40 countries. These 40 countries will exert diplomatic pressure, other pressure, but will not participate in the fighting. But they say they will pressure to open the Strait of Hormuz. When there is a ceasefire, this is another part that Trump is using to his advantage. That is, is the ceasefire still in effect? It might still be in effect. And if it is still in effect, then use this to pressure to play poker, to pressure Iran. This is what is happening now. >> Yes, but before that, on the day of the negotiation, there were reports that a US destroyer entered the Persian Gulf, and there were also reports from Iran that they had fired at pirates. It seems that the situation has been tense there since the negotiation. This means that the US military is indeed there and has come to test their strength in the area. What the world fears is that they will fight. They fear that after talking, they will stop talking, the ceasefire will fail, and they will go back to fighting again. Professor, how likely is it that fighting or war will occur in that area? >> This news, as Guitar said, is very confusing. From America, they say, hey, I went in. I went in and came out. From Iran, they say, hey, you didn't come in. I chased you back. >> At the time of negotiation. Therefore. >> You have to look at the news I told the professor to look at. So who should we believe? But at least, there was a test. If it was a normal situation, they would definitely fight. Do you understand? They brought ships to challenge ships. But Iran did not fight. But Iran said they chased them back. Because what happened? It means that both sides are doing something that is softening. Otherwise, they would have fought. This is clear. Why didn't Iran shoot? You came to challenge like this, right? America also wants to test this. And this is the center. America has gone so far as to say, hey, I have passed through completely, both ships. And at the same time, they are going to do something new, which is what? They are going to dismantle all of this. This is a part. But now America is using the blockade. Blockade for what? To pressure the Strait of Hormuz. Pressure, and maybe use what? Use pressure. But 40 countries, they have said they will exert pressure, but how much they will participate in this is another matter. But they are ready. But how much they will participate is another matter. But they will not participate in the fighting. This is clear for the 3-4 countries that were mentioned. >> Yes, but on the other hand, from a military perspective, they said that yesterday might have been a test of strength. If they sent troops in, would the IRGC or Iran resist? Before starting the actual operation. Is it possible, professor, that the US tested their strength, and if they think they can invade, they are ready to invade? >> They tested their strength. But observe, there was no fighting. Regardless of the different news, but don't forget, this is equivalent to saying that the Speaker of Parliament, Mr. Gib, is the one with power now. If it wasn't for this person, they might have fought already. Therefore, the fact that they controlled it so that there was no fighting yesterday is equivalent to saying, hey, they used a softening measure. A softening measure. If it wasn't softening, they would have fought.