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N EXPECTED JOBS REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT. REBRANDING THE PENTAGON, WE TURN OUT TO THE ANALYSIS OF DAVID BROOKS AND JAMEL BOWIE. JONATHAN IS AWAY THIS EVENING.
AS WE REPORTED, THE AUGUST JOBS REPORT IS OUT TODAY AND THE NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY BLEAK. THE EMPLOYMENT RATE KICKED UP. >> THE FED SET A TARGET OF 2.0. 25 BASIS POINTS IS HARD TO SEE. AS AUSTEN GOOLSBY SUGGESTED IN THE PROGRAM, THIS IS CAUSED BY TARIFFS AND ALSO THE CUTS IN IMMIGRATION. IT COULD BE THE FIRST YEAR IN AMERICAN HISTORY THAT YOU LOSE POPULATION. IF YOU DO, YOU TAKE AWAY A SOURCE OF ECONOMIC STRENGTH. THE NUMBER OF MANUFACTURING JOBS WAS 12,000. THAT IS NOT WHAT HE WAS PROMISING WHEN HE WAS RUNNING SO HE'S REALLY NOT HELPING.
THE MOST DEPRESSING THING FOR ME, AND THE MOST CONCERNING, IS ATTITUDES ABOUT WHAT IS HAPPENING. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL HAD A PULL OUT, "DO YOU THINK THERE IS ANY CHANCE YOUR LIVING STANDARD WILL GO UP?" ONLY 25% OF AMERICANS SAID YES. SOMETHING WEIRD HAS HAPPENED ABOUT PEOPLE'S VIEW OF THE COUNTRY AND THE ECONOMY. THERE IS A WAY TO PREDICT HOW PEOPLE WILL VIEW THE ECONOMY BASED ON ECONOMIC STATISTICS, AND UP UNTIL COVID, THE STATISTICS AND CONSUMER SENTIMENT ROSE AND FELL TOGETHER. AFTER COVID, THEY ARE TOTALLY DIVERGED. STATISTICS ARE PRETTY GOOD, BUT PEOPLE'S VIEW OF THE ECONOMY IS CRATERING, AND THAT IS A GENERALIZED LOSS OF FAITH.
GEOFF: FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2021, THERE ARE MORE UNEMPLOYED AMERICANS THAN JOB OPENINGS. HOW DOES THAT SHAPE THE LARGER POLITICAL DEBATE?
>> THE LABOR MARKET IS CLEARLY WEAKENING, AND IT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL BE A REAL CHALLENGE FOR THE ADMINISTRATION. TRUMP WON REELECTION, OR WON THE SECOND TERM, ON AN ECONOMIC ARGUMENT: LOWERING THE COST OF GOODS AND SERVICES, ENSURING PROSPERITY, AND HE WON NARROWLY ON THAT BASIS. HE HAS BEEN CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWDOWNS AND RISING INFLATION. THIS TO ME SIGNALS THAT THE ADMINISTRATION AND THE PRESIDENT'S PARTY INTO THE END OF THIS YEAR AND NEXT YEAR. SAY NOTHING OF THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS IN NEW JERSEY, AND WITH REGARD TO REPUBLICAN GOVERNANCE.
>> THE PRESIDENT SEIZING ON THESE JOBS NUMBERS TO HAMMER THE FED, HOW EFFECTIVE IS THAT?
>> I THINK IT PROBABLY PLEASES PEOPLE. THE REPUBLICANS DON'T LIKE THAT THEY ARE UNEXPECTED, BUT TO GIVE JEROME POWELL CREDIT WHERE IT IS DUE, HE DID IT ALONG WITH THE OTHER FED GOVERNORS. NO PRESIDENT LIKES THE FED. THEY DON'T WANT THEM TO PUMP DOWN INTEREST RATES IN ORDER TO GOOSE THE ECONOMY FOR AN ELECTION, BUT THAT IS PRECISELY WHY WE HAVE AN INDEPENDENT FED.
GEOFF: PRESIDENT TRUMP'S NOMINEE FOR THE OPEN FED PRESIDENT ROLLS THAT HE WOULDN'T FULLY RESIGN HIS POSITION AT THE WHITE HOUSE WHILE FILLING THE VACANT SEAT ON THE FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD OF CONFIRMED. HOW TROUBLING IS THIS DUAL ROLE ARRANGEMENT FOR THE INSTITUTIONAL INDEPENDENCE OF THE FED?
>> I WOULD CALL IT VERY TROUBLING. IT IS CLEAR THAT THE PRESIDENT WANTS TO UNDERMINE THE FED'S INDEPENDENCE, AND HE IS TRYING TO DO EVERYTHING HE CAN TO MAKE IT HAPPEN. THE ACCUSATIONS AGAINST LISA COOK, THE FIRING OF LISA COOK AS PART OF THIS, AND I WOULD CONSIDER THIS ANOTHER ATTACK ON FED INDEPENDENCE. HE WANTS TO LOWER RATES, HE WANTS THE FED TO ACT AS A BACKSTOP TO HIS OWN IRRESPONSIBLE SET OF ECONOMIC POLICIES.
GEOFF: SAY MORE ABOUT THAT, THE FACT THAT THE PRESIDENT IS TREATING INDEPENDENT ECONOMIC BODIES AS TOOLS OF POLITICAL STRATEGY RATHER THAN TOOLS OF TECHNOCRATIC GOVERNANCE.
>> HE THINKS THE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENCY BELONGS TO HIM, NOT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE. THE IDEA THAT SOME THINGS ARE SACRED. WE ARE NOT GOING TO BE JOURNALISTS AND RUN FOR OFFICE AS A DEMOCRAT AND REPUBLICAN. THE FACT THAT THEY WERE NOT INTUITIVELY APPALLED BY THAT LINE IS ENORMOUS IN A WAY.
GEOFF: PRESIDENT TRUMP SIGNED AN EXECUTIVE ORDER TODAY RENAMING THE DEFENSE DEPARTMENT THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR. HIS LATEST MOVE. WHAT DOES THIS REBRANDING SUGGEST AND HOW SHOULD WE UNDERSTAND THE SYMBOLISM BEHIND ALL OF THIS AS WE LOOK AT THE ADMINISTRATION'S POLICIES AND APPROACH?
>> YEAH. [LAUGHTER] PART OF ME WANTS TO SAY THAT THIS IS JUST KIND OF SILLY. FIRST OF ALL, THE EXECUTIVE ORDER SPECIFICALLY SAYS YOU CAN CALL THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR IF YOU WANT TO, BUT OFFICIALLY IT WILL BE THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE. I SUPPOSE YOU CAN SAY, BEYOND THE P.R. THING, IT IS SUPPOSED TO SIGNAL THE RETURN AS SECRETARY OF DEFENSE PETE HEGSETH SAYS, "MAXIMUM LETHALITY." I SUPPOSE DEMONSTRATED BY THE RECENT ATTACK ON THE BOAT ALLEGEDLY OF VENEZUELAN DRUG DEALERS. BUT AS HAS EMERGED OUT OF THAT, WHAT WE SEE ARE A LOT OF QUESTIONS ABOUT THE DECISION-MAKING. IT ALSO APPEARS TO BE A P.R. THING. I DON'T SEE ANYTHING STRATEGIC OR INTERESTED IN THE NATIONAL SECURITY INTERESTS OF THE UNITED STATES. I SEE A PRESIDENT WHO UNDERSTANDS THE WORLD AS A TELEVISION SHOW, AND SECRETARY OF WAR SOUNDS BETTER FOR TV THAN THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE.
GEOFF: DO YOU SEE A THROUGH-LINE OF THE REBRANDING OF THE PENTAGON AND THE STRIKES OF THE BOAT OFF VENEZUELA AND THE PRESIDENT SENDING FEDERAL TROOPS INTO L.A. AND D.C. AND THREATENING TO DO THE SAME IN CHICAGO? WHAT IS THE PRESIDENT TRYING TO TELL A STORY?
>> I DON'T GET RISES TO TV, JUST CALL OF DUTY. [LAUGHTER] THE PENTAGON WAS RENAMED IN THE LATE 1940'S, AND THE PEOPLE THERE WHEN IT WAS RENAMED, GEORGE MARSHALL, THE GUYS WHO WON WORLD WAR II. I FOUND THE PEOPLE WHO HAVE SHOWN TOUGHNESS IN COMBAT, THEY DON'T NEED TO BRAG ABOUT IT. YOU WILL NEVER HEAR ONE OF THEM SAY, "LET'S TALK THAT WAY." THIS CREW, ESPECIALLY PETE HEGSETH, THAT IS A LONG WAY. I'M A CONSERVATIVE. I BELIEVE GOVERNMENT SHOULD BE CAREFUL ABOUT ASSUMING WHAT IT KNOWS BECAUSE THE WORLD IS REALLY COMPLICATED. SENDING A MISSILE AT A SHIP IS FOOLISH WHEN YOU DON'T EVEN KNOW WHAT THEY ARE DOING. THERE IS A REASON WE BOARD SHIPS BECAUSE YOU WANT TO HAVE SOME EVIDENCE YOU ARE GOING AFTER DRUG DEALERS RATHER THAN RANDOM 11 PEOPLE ON A BOAT. THE TARGETING OF THE SHIPS USING WHAT SHOULD BE ACTS OF LAW ENFORCEMENT WITH ACTS OF WAR DOES CROSS THE LINE.
GEOFF: TALKING ABOUT THE NEW YORK MAYOR'S RACE LARGELY BECAUSE ERIC ADAMS SAID HE WILL STAY IN THE RACE AMID REPORTING THAT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS CONSIDERING NOMINATING HIM TO SERVE AS AMBASSADOR TO SAUDI ARABIA TO PROMPT HIM TO EXIT THE MAYORAL RACE TO CONSOLIDATE THE OPPOSITION TO ZOHRAN MAMDANI AND ENSURE ANDREW CUOMO'S STATUS IN THE RACE.
>> I THINK DONALD TRUMP MIGHT HAVE LIKED TO BE MAYOR OF NEW YORK CITY. HE IS IN MANY WAYS A BIG CITY MAYOR THAT ESCAPED CONTAINMENT. I THINK HE SEES THE ELEVATION OF ZOHRAN MAMDANI TO THE MAYORSHIP AS SOMETHING THAT WOULD BE BAD FOR NEW YORK. I SUPPOSE HE BELIEVES IT WOULD BE BAD FOR THE COUNTRY. HE WANTS TO SEE ANDREW CUOMO, WHO HAS GIVEN EVERY INDICATION THAT HE WOULD COOPERATE WITH THE ADMINISTRATION IN THE NEW YORK MAYOR'S OFFICE. I THINK THAT THE STRATEGY HERE IS PROBABLY MISGUIDED. NEW YORKERS DO NOT APPROVE OF TRUMP, AND GIVING ZOHRAN MAMDANI BASICALLY A CHANCE TO RUN AGAINST TRUMP, WHICH ADAMS DROPPING OUT WOULD DO, WOULD ONLY SERVE ZOHRAN MAMDANI.
GEOFF: YOU HAVE A RIGHT POPULIST IN TRUMP TARGETING A LEFT-WING POPULIST IN ZOHRAN MAMDANI THAT YOU SAY IS -- IN AN ERROR THAT YOU SAY IS DEFINED BY POPULISM.
>> THESE AMBASSADORSHIPS, THIS IS NOT THE FIRST TIME SOMEBODY HAS USED ONE AS AN ATTEMPT TO GET RID OF SOMEONE POLITICALLY INCONVENIENT.
GEOFF: GOOD TO SEE YOU BOTH, HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND. ♪