Professor Jiang Xueqin: The World Is About to Change

I see geopolitics as a game um among different players. These players have their own strategies, have their own interests, and they're trying to optimize the outcome using their uh strategies.

You know, if you look at Putin and Trump together, it's clear that the two are good friends. You know, this interpersonal relationship between Trump and President C, it's very important. And I think that once the two meet and once the two start, you know, being friends again, then I think we will see an a repulsement. I I'm really optimistic about the China US relationship because I think that Trump and Presidency are great friends and eventually they will um come to a a resolution that benefits both countries.

This is Professor Tanguin, one of the fastest growing geopolitical YouTubers on the platform. Professor Jang uses game theory to predict the future of world conflicts and gained enormous popularity earlier this year when he correctly predicted the United States would bomb Iran. In today's episode, we discuss why the Middle East is the center of global conflict, how using game theory explains exactly why Russia invaded Ukraine, and why using the same game theory logic, we can predict that China will not be invading Taiwan. If you've ever wanted to understand the logic behind great power competition, this episode will open your eyes to why there is so much conflict in the world and how we can prepare for the future. Let's dive in.

Well, everyone, I'm very honored to welcome into the studio today, Professor Jangin from Beijing. Uh, Professor Jang, you have been one of the fastest growing channels on YouTube, an incredible geopolitical insider, obviously a professor uh there in Beijing. Professor, welcome to the show tonight.

>> Thanks so much for inviting me, Osiris.

>> Absolutely. Absolutely. Well, uh, professor, you know, I think what a lot of people have really taken notice on your YouTube channel is really started to gain a lot of momentum, you know, right around the time that the United States attacked Iran and you have some very amazing videos, you know, that you're using game theory to predict, you know, the future of geopolitics. I'd love for you to just explain that to our audience and, you know, a little bit more about your theory and how you're using this to, you know, you know, analyze what's going on, but also to predict the future.

I see geopolitics as a game um among different players. These players have their own strategies, have their own interests and they're trying to optimize the outcome using their uh strategies. If you just look at the Middle East, um you look at Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel, United States, Turkey, uh these are the major players and um each side is trying to seek leverage over the other side. So by studying each nation's history, their internal politics and um what they believe is the best outcome for them, then you can basically predict their behavior. And that's what I've been doing for the past couple years. And that's why I was able to um predict that the United States would attack Iran.

>> That was an amazing time to see that, you know, that the United States would attack Iran. How are you looking right now with the situation in the Middle East, you know, as far as this new peace deal, you know, that's going to be between Israel and Hamas? I'd like to get your thoughts on that because I think this is a much complicated issue. Obviously, Donald Trump saying, "Look, I've solved another war. Eight wars in eight months. I'm the peace president." How are you analyzing that?

>> Trump is known for overstatement, right? He said that he's achieved Middle East peace for the first time in 3,000 years or 500 years depending on, you know, his his his mood. So, quite the accomplishment. The reality is that the Middle East has been at war for thousands of years. And there's some particular reasons why. Okay, the first major reason is that it is the hub of global trade. You had anywhere around the world, you have to go through the Middle East. In ancient times, um the Levant was white control access to Anatolia, to Egypt, to Mesopotamia, the three wealthiest areas in the world at that time. And today it's still true. So you look at the Middle East, it's it controls um access to China's belt and road initiative, right? So China is very interested in the Middle East. Europe has something called the European um India Middle East corridor. Russia has something called the north south corridor. So all the major trade routes run through the Middle East. So whoever controls that area is able to control trade and and collect taxes and and levies. The other issue uh today of course is oil. China the uh East Asia receives most of its oil from the Middle East. If there was a war to break out in the Middle East, then these East Asian economies would suffer a great deal. And the last um ingredient is esquetological religion. Three of the world's major religions um Christianity, Judaism, Islam, all focus in the Middle East. There are many extremist elements within these traditions who believe that the that World War II will break out in the Middle East and this will cause the return of Jesus or the arrival of the Messiah or the creation of a world government depending on your esquetology. But these religious traditions believe that the Middle East is the heart and center of their religious worldview. And in many ways for them um they have a mission to achieve biblical prophecy. So the Middle East is going to be the center of global conflict for the next 10 20 years because of these three reasons. One uh because it's a center of global trade, because of oil and because of esquetology.

>> So do you think that right now what you know how do you predict the future with like say Israel and Hamas? I mean do you think that this will be a you know as far as right now we're seeing that there is some peace in the region? I mean you know I mean the hostages have been returned. you know, there's speculation that there's going to be a new government coming to rule Palestine. I mean, obviously, Donald Trump has a very big plan that, you know, potentially includes lucrative investments and, you know, really, you know, changing that entire area. Do you think that that's any possibility for that or do you still think there's just going to be a lot more uh, you know, continuous conflict like you just, you know, said?

>> I think everyone hopes that the peace will be sustained and prolonged because the the Palestinians have suffered so much these past couple of years. Um, you've have systematic starvation. I mean the people have suffered so much especially the children. So I think everyone's praying for peace. Uh we're all hoping that this deal will u be lasting but look the reality is for these past two years there's been this is a this this is a third ceasefire. Okay this is a third ceasefire. Uh Israel has never um had any intentions of maintaining peace because their society right now uh it's fractured. Uh remember that before October 7th Israel was on the brink of civil war. Nanyahu wanted to reform the judiciary. There were these protests involving hundreds of thousands of people calling calling for his overthrow. Uh there's talk that if the war is stopped, there's peace, Na will be charged with corruption. He will go to prison. Look, the reality is that Israel cannot afford a peace. Uh especially N Netanyahu. Um and what's even worse is that after each ceasefire, Israel has devastated Gaza to an even more extreme. If you just look look at the history, you just look at game theory, there's very very little hope that this peace will last much longer. And in fact, quite honestly, um the conditions already set for Israel to resume strikes because one important ingredient of this peace uh agreement is that Hamas surrender all its arms. Hamas would never do that. That that's just that's just that insane. So So I I don't know how much longer this piece will last. I mean hopefully another few more months um you know it's very important for these at trucks to get into Gaza and make sure that people are well have have enough to eat. Um but the reality is that there are many extremist elements in the IDF that do not want to see peace and they want to see this war to its logical conclusion which is the ethnic cleansing of Gaza.

>> Yeah, I think that's an unfortunate reality of the situation. I mean we this has been well documented with Netanyahu certainly we're not wanting to prolong that war because he is facing those corruption charges even many people speculating that, you know, he knew that October 7th was going to happen. Obviously, Israel has an incredible defense system. So many people are questioning how could they not have predicted this or seen this attack coming. Many people speculating that, you know, potentially I Netanyahu let it happen because this again allowed him to continue this war and certainly take away from the distraction of the corruption charges and potential imprisonment for him. So, it's a situation we're definitely going to have to keep looking at. Professor, I want to go to the most important, you know, probably conflict that we've seen, you know, in the recent years. This is, of course, Russia, Ukraine, and how this has certainly influenced Europe. We've seen the United States obviously has been dragged in. I mean, it has been the number one supporter of NATO, but we've seen an interesting dynamic with Trump recently, you know, now saying that Europe, you're on your own. You know, you're going to have to, you know, continue to fund this war. You know, give me your thoughts on Russia Ukraine. And I mean feel free to go back as far as you want, but I'd like to understand a little bit more this con conflict, you know, through your eyes and through game theory.

>> Yeah. So according to game theory, Russia had no choice but to um invade Ukraine Ukraine in 2022. And the reason why is NATO expansion, right? So NATO was essentially encircling um Russia. Ukraine was a was a red line. And I think that um Russia was extremely patient with NATO for uh many years. But the final uh step um was the 2014 mining coup when um the government of Ukraine was overthrown by C CIA backed coup. And um you have these belligerents in the Doness region who are trying to ethnic cleanse Russ Russians from that area. And so Putin has expressed it very clearly. He went into Ukraine to defend ethnic Russians who were who were crying for help. And if you look at what's happened in Ukraine, most of the frontline fighters are ethnic Russians who lived in Ukraine all their lives. And so they're fighting really for the safety and security of their families. So that's something that we have to remember that Russia was really provoked into this war by NATO. We also have to remember that really Russia's been fighting NATO all this time. I mean it's the troops are Ukrainian, but look at this. The financing is NATO. The technology is NATO. Special forces NATO. Um command and control NATO. Uh targeting NATO. When when a bridge is blown blown up in Crimea, that's not Ukrainians. They don't have the technology. They don't have the expertise. It's NATO that's doing this. When the Northstream pipeline was blown up, that was not the Ukrainians. I mean, the Ukrainians got the blame for it, but that was certainly not the uh Ukrainians. So, uh for the past few years, Russia has been fighting NATO all this time. And if you just look at what's happening in Ukraine, Russia is winning this war. It's showing that NATO is really a paper tiger. Um, and I think a lot a lot of it is is just that Russians are fighting for their civilization. Russians are fighting for their homeland, for the motherland, and NATO has become this overreaching bureaucracy and it's not very popular even in Europe. As to what's happening between Trump and um NATO, I I I think it's very simple. I think that the empire is in debt. Uh America has $37 trillion in debt. Can it can no longer finance these wars. So it wants NATO to fight these wars on its behalf. Another way of saying this is that um what we've seen is that America has quickly devolved these past few years into a mafia state. It's a mafia empire. And the way that mafia works is it extort its allies. You know JD Vance goes to Europe and he says, "Hey guys, you're going to have to start, you know, doing real work. you know, we we we the Americans are sick of, you know, saving our ass all this time. And that's just the attitude of the Trump administration. So, it's not like this war in Ukraine is going to end. It's just that uh these European countries are supposed to now foot the bill. They're supposed to, you know, have pay at least 3% of their GDP. They have to buy all these expensive weapons from America. Eventually, they have to draft troops and send them off to Ukraine to die. Now, what's really important to remember is that at the end of the day, this war is hopeless and it's pointless. you cannot possibly beat uh Russia in the battlefield against Ukraine. They have too many advantages and ultimately at the end of the day uh Russia has nuclear weapons. Okay? So you can't push Russia too far and it's pointless because Russia has no intention of threatening Europe. Russia just wants to maintain its security. So why are you sending Europeans to die off in Ukraine for no particular purpose? And I think that this is going to cause tremendous political disscent within Europe. I I I it's possible within five years you'll have major civil clashes throughout Europe because uh NATO's trying to draft soldiers and the European Europe young European men refuse to do so.

>> Yeah. Oh, I can I can definitely see the future of that because um you know, ironically, you know, I'm here in the United States and you know what I've we're actually living very close to a US Army base here in u here and and actually I've talked to you know, many people in the in the area and and one thing I always hear is, you know, the Ukraine is the actual best case scenario for us because we get to fight Russia and we don't risk any US lives. No troops on the ground for the United States. So, it's the best case. And and I always kind of counter that question. And I say, well, what about the Ukrainians? You know, what about these people that are, you know, risking their lives and losing their lives and and actually getting slaughtered and young men, you know, having to leave at a very young age? I believe it was the United States or maybe another European ally who had actually asked Sinsky to lower the age of the enlisted soldiers, you know, saying, you know, I think you need to go from 21 down to 20, you know, to get more soldiers in there to fight this war. So I mean it's a very hard thing to on one sense to be in the United States and hear oh this is a great thing for America because we get to fight Russia um you know without risking our lives but then you know not really think about the Ukrainian lives and and also the Russian lives that are being lost. I mean I think you really hit the nail on the head there. This is a pointless and useless war.

>> Look look I mean like Ukraine has no future. Ukraine is finished as a nation. Okay. So let's go over the reasons why. The first is the number of casualties uh on the Ukrainian side. Like the estimates are between 1 and 2 million uh men. That's the future of Ukraine. Second is that you've got millions of these Ukrainians who have fled the country uh as refugees. They've s they've sought refuge in western countries. Um and they're not going back because there's no future for them, right? And and the third thing is that so Ukraine is divided into western Ukraine and eastern Ukraine. Eastern Ukraine is historically Russian. Western Ukraine is traditionally Poland. And uh the reality is that Putin is only interested in eastern Ukraine because it's ethnically Russian but also because that's where all the resources and agriculture are. You know if Russia is able to control DES then the war is over because Western Ukraine is not sustainable um it doesn't have its own agricultural and industrial resources. And what will end up happening is that Western Ukraine will become a welfare state for the Europeans. I hate to say this but the Europeans really sacrificed Ukraine with this war. Ukraine by by choosing to fight uh Russia, it's basically doomed itself as as a nation.

>> I think you're spot on with this analysis. Um, professor, in regards to, you know, what we hear in in mainstream media and what we've certainly heard from the US government is, for example, this domino theory uh very much that uh actually that Putin has much greater plans. You know, if Ukraine falls, that's the first country. You know, Western Europe's going to fall. And I think this is almost similar to the Vietnam Vietnam war, right? where where the US government had preached, you know, you know, if if Vietnam remains communist, you know, one by one, you're going to see communism spread throughout Asia. Of course, we never saw that happen and that was certainly manufacturing consent, you know, for the Americans to go into Vietnam. Do you see this, you know, I mean, analyze these these comments from the US government? Is this is this just them trying to sell this war and manufacture consent to Westerners?

Look, look, listen for the facts, okay? The first fact is that when the Soviet Union fell, when the Berlin wall fell, the Americans gave the Russians asurances that NATO won't expand, that NATO won't take advantage of the fall of the Soviet Union to expand throughout Europe. America has broken these promises. Okay, that's fact number one. Fact Fact number multiple times. Fact number two is that Putin has made multiple overtures to join NATO. Putin said to multiple um American presidents, you know, if NATO is a defensive alliance, um if it's alliance based on peace, then Russia wants to be part of that and then whatever conflicts that will arise, we'll just settle it within NATO. He was constantly buffed by these US presence. Okay, that's the second fact. The third fact is a relentless expansion of NATO. NATO already has 32 members even though the Soviet Union had failed a long time ago. NATO already has 32 members. There's talk of Moldova become the 33rd member. Okay. So um so so these are three facts that that we're faced with that throughout that these past 20 30 years after the fall of the Berlin wall Berlin war after the collaps union NATO has been um relentlessly expanding towards Russian sphere of influence and Russia has been extremely tolerant. You you see what's happening um in Russia's southern southern flank, right? Georgia, Armenia, Arjan. It seems as though NATO is intent on encircling Russia just to protect its own sovereignty, just to protect its sphere of influence, just to protect its own internal cohesion. Then Russia had to act.

>> That makes it makes complete sense. How do you see this war between Russia and Ukraine ending? I mean, do you see it ending anytime soon? I think the data as you've mentioned already and as many military analysts have has now seen is that Russia is winning the battle. I mean it is a war of attrition right now. And so again if you just you know simply take your emotion away from this and look at the reality you look at numbers. You know obviously it's um a lot of casualties and a lot of a lot of wasted resources but you know Russia does have the upper hand. Do you see this as a conflict that President Trump, you know, is going to try to I mean, he's, you know, he famously said, "By day one, I'm going to be able to end this war. Obviously, that hasn't happened." Do you see this a conclusion within the next 6 months, year? Is this going to be another forever war? What is your thoughts on that?

>> I think you've talked to most military analysts actually say, uh, the war is lost. Uh, Russia has been able to establish battlefield dominance. That's air superiority. It's soldiers extremely well disciplined. Um, they have they're they have high morale. They're very innovative. If you if you just go and look at um online videos of interviews of these frontline soldiers in Russ in Russia, I mean they are extremely disciplined. They they want to see this thing to the finish and they're highly motivated. And it's the complete opposite for the Ukrainians. Um the decision rate among the Ukrainians is very very high. And so at this point I think that what's best for Ukraine is to cut your losses. Unfortunately, in geopolitics, geopolics and especially in game theory, there's something called a sunk cost fallacy, right? So, you go to the casino, you know, you win $100,000 and you feel great. At the end of the night, you lose a million dollars. You can't leave now because some cost fallacy. You have to get it back. Okay? So, that's that's the situation the Europeans are facing. They've stuck in billions of dollars of dollars in Ukraine. Uh Ukraine has promised uh the Europeans, especially the British, all these rare earth minerals, um all this wealth untapped in Ukraine. It's it would be a complete loss of faith if NATO were to surrender right now. So because of some clause fallacy, unfortunately we can expect that this war uh will drag on. Now what's really important to understand is that your the Russians even though they're winning this war, they fight it really slowly because the Russians use trench artillery warfare, you know, so you have to move these um artillery pieces into place. But also, you know, what's what people don't really understand is Russia is trying to minimize both civilian casualties as well as as their own troop casualties. They're trying to cause as little damage to the critical civilian infra infrastructure as much as possible because at the end of the day, they still believe that this is part of the Russian homeland and they want people to move back and rebuild their lives in in this area. They have to make this liveable. So Russia faces a governance problem after this war ends. And that's why Russia has been extremely strategic, methodical, and slow in the process. But unfortunately, this gives time for the Ukrainians and for NATO to regroup. And so I what I think is going to happen is that um Russia will slowly advance. Putin will constantly call for peace, call for an end to the slaughter. Trump will also call for an end to the slaughter. But because of some cost fallacy uh because uh the Europeans have basically deluded themselves that this war is still winnable then they will establish new front lines and I think that the final battle will take place in Odessa. I think um the fate of Ukraine will be decided in Odessa. Putin and his generals have already stated that Odessa is is the is the end goal. Once they have Odessa control eastern Ukraine um Ukraine becomes landlocked um and Russia will be able to control the Black Sea access. So Odessa is the main goal of the Russians. NATO knows this and NATO will will uh basically invest a lot of resources in Odessa. So I predict in a few years time um Odessa will be the uh final battle. But but unfortunately because Russia uses artillery warfare because NATO is very stubborn, this thing will last for a long time.

>> Yeah, I think so. I think that's definitely um you know certainly what many analysts are saying and I think I mean looking at that it has now become a war of attrition. I think that is what is going to happen. Interesting thought about Adessa I can see exactly why uh Putin would say that and and why that would be the end goal. Uh professor I want to go now to you know the most important geopolitical relationship in the world. Uh this is definitely China, the United States. Uh we have seen no shortage of you know groundbreaking stories this year in 2025. Um obviously, you know, we can go back to um even you know a story that I first covered was deepseek you know back in early you know 25 that was really amazing you know that you really showing a lot of Americans wow China is you know able to invent this incredible technology on par with the United States and many factors actually better than you know an open AI on many models. But we're also talking about the trade relationship. Obviously, Donald Trump launching a massive trade war with the entire world, not much, you know, on this famous liberation day back in April. We've seen now this an escalation leading to the rare earth minerals uh import controls and export controls, you know, from China, which is obviously the dominant player in rare earth uh mineral processing. Uh professor, give us give me your general thoughts on the United States and China relationship. I'd love to hear your theory and how you're looking at at this relationship through your eyes.

Well, I mean, I hate to repeat this, but America is behaving like a mafia state. Um, for the past few years, America has been constantly bullying China, imposing all sorts of restrictions on semiconductors, on technology. Um, and so with this earth mineral blockade, China has basically signaled to United States that it will no longer put up with this bullying. And that's the only way to deal with bullies, right? You have to stand up and punch the guy in the face before he starts to negotiate. So, but I think that both sides are committed to peace and prosperity. I I I think that eventually Trump and Presidency will meet and apparently they're supposed to meet at the end of this month um at in South Korea. I personally think that the two have a great interpersonal relationship. You know, if you look at Putin and Trump together, it's clear that the two are good friends. And I and if you just look at videos of Trump and President C together in Trump's first term, you know, when um when President C visited Trump, you know, Trump introduced President C to his family and his grandchildren are learning Mandarin, they can recite, you know, tongue poetry and you know, and I can't do that. So, so, so I think that, you know, this interpersonal relationship between Trump and President C, it's very important. And I think that once the two meet and once the two um start um you know being fronts again then I think we will see an a repulsement. I I'm really optimistic about the China US relationship because I think that Trump and President C are great friends and eventually they will um come to a a resolution that benefits both countries. I I I'm I actually share your very uh bullish sentiment as well and it's something that I constantly talk about is is in my theory I believe that you know the United States and China you know when we look at trade relationship is even so important. I think there's many aspects that both economies are very dependent on each other. We've also spent, you know, 50 years building an incredible relationship with China. And obviously, even from the United States perspective, we've benefited tremendously from recruiting incredible minds and incredible intellects, you know, from China to study in our universities to become naturalized American citizens to, you know, start families, build businesses, and very much live that American dream. Uh, and obviously our country in America is built on immigration, uh, which is, you know, we've had incredible success stories, you know, coming from China. So I I I do preach that as well that I think that there there is you know a great potential you know for these two countries. Um how do you look at the tra

>> Sorry I I hate to interrupt. Okay. But and like like you you know this right? I understand that the media plays up this China US rivalry but if you're an American you you will know this right if you're just an American in China. Chinese people love Americans. uh Chinese people are extremely friendly towards Americans, you know, like like like it's it's even today um Chinese have a deep seed respect for American innovation, for um you know, this this American attitude toward towards work. Like even today you you've got these millions of Chinese families who want to send their kids to America to experience American dream to learn in America. So at the very top you have this very strong relationship between uh President President Trump and President C. But at the very bottom among the American people, among the Chinese people, there's genuine friendship and respect for each other.

>> I I couldn't agree with you more. And you know, it's interesting. I I first went to China in 2007. And you know, I often get question, you know, what's it like being an American in China? You know, what was your experiences being there? And I said, you know, in the 18 years that I've been going to China, I have not had a single bad experience. And it's very common, you know, being the tall, you know, white foreigner in China to ask, you know, where are you from? you know, you know, and it's anytime you respond with, you know, America, you know, it's it's always like, oh, you know, you know, America is great, you know, it's it's always, you know, very endearing. So, I can 100% agree with your statement there. And I think it's something that I want more people to know about as well. And this was also really interesting when the Tik Tok ban, you know, was coming into um, you know, you know, existence here in the United States. I think actually for a day Tik Tok went black. A lot of Americans were very upset. They went to Xiaoong Shu and actually downloaded a real Chinese app. But that was amazing because you actually saw millions of of Americans exchanging with millions of Chinese. And I and I always say I think it's very important for Americans to, you know, to experience China. I mean, if they could actually go to China and experience it firsthand, it's going to be a very different perspective than anything that they've seen in our media. And then also probably just going to realize how friendly Chinese people are and how welcoming Chinese people are. You know, welcome to China. Thanks for being here. It's great to have you. I and I predict that that'll be one of the tangible outcomes of this meeting between President Trump and President C where they announce uh this partnership to bring more Americans over to China and more Chinese over to America because it's this peopleto people exchange that's the basis for any solid geopolitical relationship.

>> Yeah, absolutely. Peopleto people is is so important. I couldn't agree more. But let's get back to, you know, one of the things that we hear in Western media is certainly, you know, China is the biggest threat to American democracy. You know, the Chinese government, you know, they want to infiltrate into America. They want to see they want to become number one in the world. I mean, this is this is literally the daily message that we hear in the United States. And it's it's actually what inspired me to make a YouTube channel because I said, look, this is not China's intention. You know, China has 1.4 billion people. you know, President Xi and the government, they have enough problems and and you know, it's a big responsibility dealing with that many people, you know. Um, what what are your what is your thoughts on uh kind of the rivalry, you know, this rivalry and kind of this interesting relationship between US China?

>> Well, look, I hate to be cynical, but look, the reality is that you have one the 1% in America who deeply corrupt um who um will try to um create all these like false dialectics in order to pro protect themselves, right? To distract people. I mean, Americans are suffering under tremendous um wealth wealth inequality. There's tremendous corruption in Washington. The government doesn't really work anymore for the American people. And that's a concern and that should be the concern of of the American people. How to make government more responsive. And look, the reality is this. You live in America. America has always been protected by two oceans. It's a fortress. It's a continental fortress. It has all the resources you could possibly need. The American people are extremely hardworking, extremely talented, um extremely motivated. And if you just unleash that entrepreneural energy of American people, you remove that bureaucracy, if you move that inequality, you move that corruption, America will be invincible. There's no there's no power in the world that can challenge American supremacy.

>> That's a that's that's well said. I like that a lot. Um, professor, let's talk a little bit. probably I think the biggest um you know potential problem you know would probably be the island of Taiwan you know and I think that's something that we often hear that, you know, I think the USChina relationship it obviously centers on Taiwan because this is the first thing that um you know, that I think it was Joan Lee you know when he when he said to President Nixon, you know, we can talk many different policies but there's one policy that's most important to us is that you recognize Taiwan as part of China the one China policy which has become the the cornerstone of the USChina relationship. You You know, this is another talking point that we often hear that, you know, China's military is ramping up. 2026 is the year. 2027 is the year they're going to launch this attack against Taiwan. They're going to forcefully take the island, you know, and and obviously that would cause, you know, a very big strain in the US China relationship. But how are you and game theory and in your how are you looking at the situation of Taiwan and how that influences the US China relationship?

>> Okay, just from a game theory perspective, it would be idiotic to go invade Taiwan. Okay. So, so let's go over the reasons why. The first reason is that in East Asia, China is surrounded by nemesis. Okay. So, Japan, Russia, India are all geopolitical threats to China in the long term. America at the end of the day, it's it's far away in the Pacific. Um, and at the end of the day, from a game theory perspective, you want the United States, if you're China, you want the United States in East Asia in order to balance out the other threats because what happens if United States were to lead? Well, Japan now has to rebuild its military. And historically, Japan has had the most powerful milit the most powerful navy in East Asia. And once and if if you unleash Japan, then Japan is able to control all the straight routes uh trade routes, especially the trade of Malaa. And you know, China is very dependent on trade right now. China imports one of onethird of its food from overseas. So if Japan were to rebuild its navy and blockade China, China would be in a lot of trouble. Um you have India and China competing for control of the Himalayas in the Tibetan plateau which is a very important source of fresh water. Russia and China share a very long border. There are there are parts of Siberian the Siberian far east which was historically you know China and Russia shown itself to be very aggressive. So from a game theory perspective, you if you're China, if the United States were to leave, then you have to deal with all three threats. Um, and your entire uh the entire East Asian geopolitical landscape would be altered overnight. And so you don't want the United States to leave, you know, you you want the United States to stay as a balancing force to to maintain a balancing act. Also, we we have to remember North Korea is also a problem because North Korea is a revisionist power. You know, North Korea has been sending troops to Ukraine to train them up and North Korea wants to build up its arsenal, wants to build up its military. Why? Because it's poor and it's been blockaded out of the global financial system. So, from a gameplay perspective, you if North Korea, you want to be the rogue state. You want to be the bad actor because that's how you that you're incentivized to be the back bad actor. So like let's just assume that North Korea were to threaten South Korea and says listen if you don't pay us a billion dollars a year we're going to start shelling Soul and destroy you know like 90% of South Korea. Well then that creates problems for China as well because China doesn't want that want North Korea to be like this road actor in um in uh Southeast Asia. So you know United States and China benefit more from helping each other than they do by competing against each other. Okay. So just from game theory perspective, China's happy with the way things are. China, you know, if the were to leave, China would have to be the hedgeon. It would have to invest more in its military and more its navy. It would it would create all these conflicts with its neighbors which would disrupt its economy which would lower prosperity for its people. First the communist party first and foremost is concerned about maintaining peace and prosperity for its people and and that's it overriding geopolitical goal. It's not interested in hijgemony. It's never been interested in hijgemony. Second thing is that um an invasion of Taiwan would be costly because remember um China's industrial base is based off the coast. So it would take exactly the American Navy I I would say 24 hours to destroy China's industrial base. So why give the Americans a reason to do something like this? Also the Chinese economy is based on global trade. So China's image overseas is important. So why come across as a belligerent? The Taiwanese don't really see China as a threat. The Taiwanese people themselves don't want to declare independence. The Taiwanese people are very happy with the status quo. Right now, Taiwan benefits a great deal from its trade relationship with with China. So, look, if if you are China and you're concerned about Taiwanese independence, then you have all these economic leverage that you can apply. Why would you use the military which is risky, which is counterproductive, and which could make you a pariet state. So from a game theory perspective like like like Chinese policy makers aren't even considering the possibility of of invading Taiwan.

>> Yeah, I couldn't agree more. I think all of those reasons are uh very similar to the analysis that we've done on our channel as well and it just doesn't make sense. And I think we another important thing for many Westerners might understand is for 1.4 billion Chinese people, you know, they're looking at Taiwanese people as their neighbors, their brothers and sisters. You know, this is in their eyes it's already united, right? It's already a province and it's already um you know, these are the brothers and sisters. I don't think they're just going to start bombing Taipei and, you know, trying to, you know, kill people. I mean, that just doesn't make sense for Chinese. And Chinese are very peaceful, you know, I mean, they they certainly want peace and prosperity. And I like what you said there as far as the Chinese government, you know, peace and prosperity for the nation and for the citizens. That is the overwhelming goal, not to be a hedged, not to be we want to be number one. It's it's about, you know, serving the society and and creating a more peaceful and balanced society and hopefully one that continues to improve over time. You know, Professor Jung, we're coming to the end of our interview here and I've learned so much from you. I absolutely love it. What is the biggest threat that you think, you know, in the future here? You know, for example, we often hear headline of like, you know, World War II is starting next or, you know, this is the next thing that's going to do uh that's going to happen in the world. In your eyes, what is that conflict? What is that that that you're worrying about for the future?

>> Well, I think in the short term, the geopolitical conflicts are an issue. Uh I think that both Ukraine and the Middle East will be the two two flash points. I think that uh Venezuela, it's sort of overstated. I don't think the Americans would would actually send ground troops into Venezuela. They would want regime change, but they would use covert shadow uh mechanisms to to um um uh drive regime change. So So I think the two major flash points of going for the next 10 years will be um um Ukraine and the Middle East. But beyond that, what worries me are is a major geohysical event. I think that humanity has been very lucky for this past 200 years. We've had very good weather. We we we we've we've been able to avoid major catastrophes. But if you just look at history, if you just look at the history of humanity from a macro perspective, um ice ages are a common thing. Um so so I think that uh we are looking we're moving towards towards an ice age and and that I think should concern people because uh changes in weather are much more destructive than than wars actually from a historical perspective. There's talk of a polar magnetic shift. So you know like like every um you know now and then the north and south pole they shift their axis. So so the north goes south the south and and and this creates all sorts of uh anomalies all sorts of catastrophes, flooding, earthquakes, all that. I would say like the biggest concern is how do we get humanity to focus on our common enemies wi-i which is how to make this planet peaceful and pro prosperous for everyone because these geophysical events they are coming. I mean it's just part of our history. Um it's just how the planet earth works and the only way we can survive it is by working together.

No, that's a you know what I think that's a perfect way to end because that's something that I often say when I'm talking about US and China. You know, when US and China work together, the whole world wins. And I would extend that obviously to every region in the world, right? We only have one planet. And I love that you brought up these um you know, climate change and the change in the weather and how that could be potentially um you know, a catastrophe for the future. Professor Jung, I want to say thank you so much for coming on our show and I certainly hope to interview you again in the future. I think today's chat was absolutely inspiring.

>> Yeah, I I mean I'm a big fan of what you do. I think what what you do is so important because you're helping to bridge this relationship between uh the United States and China and you know as everyone knows this is the most important relationship as long as you know China and the United States is willing to work together then it's possible to resolve a lot of issues. Um I I think you know um you know once Trump and President C they they rebuild a relationship it's possible China plays a very important role in maintaining peace in Ukraine and in the the Middle East. Um and and so so I think I think it's so important for Americans and Chinese to maintain dialogue and especially to meet each other and uh and and get to know each other some more.

>> Yeah, I couldn't agree more. I couldn't agree more. Well, Professor Jang, I appreciate your time and thank you so much for spending time with us. I'm going to put a link to your YouTube channel that again is growing so fast and also you have an incredible Discord community um and a great Substack as well. So, we're going to put those links down there so everybody can follow along and again you so much for your time and our wonderful conversation today. Everyone, I hope you enjoyed today's conversation with Professor Jang as we both agreed the world would be a far better place if major powers like the US and China could find ways to work together. I love the professor's thoughts about President Trump and President Xi and the fact they do have a large mutual respect for one another. I hope the meeting between these two world leaders at the end of this month results in positive changes for the USChina relationship and our entire world. But whatever the future holds, make sure to follow our channel to stay updated on the evolving state of these global flash points. And if you enjoy the professor's insights, I've linked his work in the description down below. Thank you all for your incredible support and we look forward to seeing you all in our next episode.