Transcription
Live from Singapore. This is Insight with me, Haslinda Amin, a show where we dive deeper into the stories that matter, with crucial context and shock analysis.
Asian stocks and U.S. futures drop after NVIDIA reveals new U.S. restrictions on chip exports to China. President Trump is also moving towards adding duties on critical mineral imports. China’s economy expanded at a faster pace than anticipated in the first quarter of 2025, but that was before the tariff turmoil, and now the outlook is rapidly worsening. And we’ll speak to political scientist and trade expert Scott Kennedy about why Beijing thinks it can win the trade war with the U.S.
Our top story today: investors on edge as tensions between the U.S. and China escalate further. Traders were whiplashed by news that the U.S. is putting new restrictions on Nvidia’s chip exports to China and moving towards tariffs on critical mineral imports. The White House is putting the onus on Beijing to resolve the trade spat, calling on President Xi Jinping to pick up the phone. But I do have an additional statement that he just shared with me in the Oval Office: “The ball is in China’s court. China needs to make a deal with us. We don’t have to make a deal with them. There’s no difference between China and any other country, except they are much larger. And China wants what we have, what every country wants, what we have: the American consumer. Or to put it another way, they need our money.”
But a former top Chinese economic official says Beijing is unlikely to accept Washington’s conditions. Li Wei told us exclusively that China will only engage in talks if the U.S. shows some respect. “You ask about ten? I totally accept the U.S. proposal to accept your conditionality. I think that that’s a no-negotiation and must be under the mutual respect and realize the don’t movement situation.” And we’ll have more from my exclusive interview with former Chinese deputy finance minister Zhu Guangyao later on in the show.
Let’s take a look at how Asian and British suppliers are doing on the back of additional tariffs on Nvidia, especially those A20 chips, which have been pretty essential for China. SK Hynix is in negative territory, down by 2.8%; losses also for the likes of Samsung Electronics, Taiwan Semiconductor, and Hon Hai, currently down by more than 2%. That limit on China’s exports to, of course, Nvidia is five and a half billion dollars. Of course, we saw how that played on Nvidia’s shares in particular: losses for the stock. We’re also keeping an eye on those minerals, rare earth stocks, the likes of Paladin and G, currently in negative territory, but gains for the likes of Lynas Rare Earths, China Northern Rare Earth. Of course, this is one area which China is dominating, much to Trump’s ire, of course.
Now, speaking of rare earths, Malaysia, one of the key countries caught in the crossfire between the U.S. and China’s trade conflict, the Southeast Asian nation is a hub for chip manufacturing. Also a key producer of rare earths, Chinese President Xi Jinping is there right now, urging Malaysia to work with Beijing to protect supply chain stability. So in April, Hong is in Putrajaya for us.
A lot at stake for both leaders. Absolutely. I mean, you’re hearing today, right, how China is trying to shore up domestic growth with an action plan. At the same time, it is trying to shore up global supply chains. The Chinese leader is coming to the Southeast Asian region, Malaysia, the second leg of the tour. And this is only the second time in more than a decade that he’s actually visited Malaysia. So you can just tell the optics: there is a lot at stake here. And keep in mind, when we first got wind of this visit by the Chinese president to the region was in late March, and at the time it was kind of touted as a way for China to show its clout in the region since the tariff announcements from April 2nd. It’s really kind of pivoted into a way for the Chinese leader to try and convince Southeast Asian countries that they shouldn’t be cutting trade deals or tariff-related deals with Washington at the expense of Beijing. And amid all this, also a chance for him to promote China as a more stable partner than the U.S.
Now, Malaysia also has a lot at stake here. You remember how, when it comes to trading partners, China is still at the top of the list, its biggest trading partner. And indeed, trade between both sides just last year, the value exceeded 100 billion for Malaysia. It’s a very fine balancing act, of course, as is negotiating with Washington. It also needs to come across as friendly to China and indeed has been rolling out the red carpet for the Chinese leader on the way from Kuala Lumpur, the capital, to Putrajaya, the administrative capital, where, of course, just a day ago the Chinese leader led to include we saw all these banners and billboards that really showcase the warm welcome for the Chinese leader. And if you can see behind me as well, it is a hive of activity, preparations at this complex, the official residence for Prime Minister Anwar, and really just preparing the stage for the Chinese leader. So a lot that we’re keeping an eye on, especially given the expectations of you as between the two sides to come. Also, just to put it in some context, around Southeast Asian nations are among the countries slapped with among the highest tariffs by the U.S., Vietnam in particular, 46%, and Malaysia, in excess of 26%.
Now we know chips, commodities, a key focus here. What’s in play? Absolutely. I mean, you raise a really good point, right? It’s no small coincidence that the two countries that are also part of these two are Vietnam, Cambodia, were slapped with the highest tariffs from the U.S. for this part of the world. And you keep in mind as well that how chips, commodities, they are really figuring high in the equation in U.S.-China rivalry. Think about these China chip restrictions, but also the announcement of this probe into critical minerals. And you see how rare earth they are. Also a key commodity for Malaysia. It has a lot of it, but it’s still kind of reliant for the Chinese technology in processing these rare earths. And on top of that, when it comes to the text, you think about how data center investments from China in Malaysia have been building, gaining steam over the years and its prominence as well as a massive player in low-end semiconductors. So that’s the context. That’s the subtext as well, that these discussions between the two leaders are kind of taking place. And that’s right, Malaysia benefiting from a China plus one. Now it is in the crosshairs of U.S.-China tensions. April Hong from Putrajaya, we thank you so much for joining us.
Well, our next guest is a leading authority on Chinese economic policy and U.S.-China commercial relations and has been traveling to China close to 40 years. Scott Kennedy is senior advisor and trustee chair in Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Thank you for joining us, Scott. Put this in perspective for us. We see China digging its heels, almost ready for the long game. Why such confidence?
Well, China wouldn’t have done this if the U.S. hadn’t imposed so many tariffs on them in the first Trump administration, the fentanyl tariffs, and then the reciprocal tariffs. I think the Chinese are showing some confidence because over the last several years they’ve been able to expand their capacity and abilities in technology. They have still a lot of fiscal room left for a stimulus to counter the fall that’s going to happen from a drop in exports to the United States. They have a lot of countries around the world that depend on them for trade and investment. And Xi Jinping’s trip to Southeast Asia, as you pointed out, is trying to solidify and expand those relations so that China avoids being isolated. Also, some of the problems of China’s economy actually, actually work to its advantage. China’s financial markets are pretty small, about 60% of GDP. The United States financial markets are now 140% of GDP. So when U.S. markets went down, that was a huge hit on the American economy. China’s financial markets can go down some and they can get away with it. And I think just the last thing is resolve for this conflict. For China, it’s existential. For Trump, this is a trade war to show that he’s powerful. But this isn’t an existential fight for the United States. This is a war of choice for, for Washington.
Scott, isn’t it also about standing up to the U.S., whom the Chinese has termed as a bully? I mean, China is, after all, the second largest economy in the world. And in my conversation with a vice minister of finance, a former vice minister of finance, he didn’t say about, you know, China unwilling to come to the table for negotiations unless it is shown some respect.
Sure. Well, you if you remember, in the first Trump administration, the pressure and the tariffs were all and the concessions were all in one direction from Beijing to Washington. And I think the Chinese decided that they wouldn’t go through that again. And now that they’ve been singled out relative to everybody else, they’re definitely going to stand their ground. I don’t think that this is just strictly about respect. I think it’s also about China’s economic future and the rules of the international system. So I think whether it’s about respect or about their belief that they can withstand this longer than the U.S., I think we’re in for a significant fight.
You talk about how this is about China’s future. China has its own issues. Yes, its economy is slowing down. But the other big issues as well, like are corruption, widespread corruption, political purges. These are barriers to its own development. I mean, how confident can it be when it is facing multiple huge issues?
Sure. China is facing a lot of headwinds. The pandemic was and since the pandemic, growth has not been high. There’s the business confidence. Consumer confidence is low. There’s a lot of governance challenges. And the Chinese aren’t sure how this is going to turn out. But one of the things that’s really interesting about this is a lot of the pressure that’s coming from Washington and others pointing to China’s very large global trade surplus, which was over a trillion last year, is pushing the Chinese to reconsider much more seriously the need for structural reform of their economy to shift from depending on high-tech exports to domestic household consumption. That would be good for China in its own self-interest. It would also relieve some of the trade tensions that they have with others around the world, including Washington. So I think actually there is a potential landing zone for Washington and Beijing and others for eventually. We’re not near that yet, but you can see a possibility of a potential deal.
But what would it take for an off-ramp?
Yeah, well, I think first both sides are going to need to feel enough pain that they feel that they must come to the table, not that it’s something that they’d like to do. And as we’ve seen from Washington, the Trump administration says that they’re not feeling pain despite the huge drop in markets last week. China’s first-quarter numbers just came out stronger than expected, though, depending heavily on exports. Private investment grew barely at all. So we can expect in quarter two and three, China’s numbers are going to probably go down significantly as their exports to the U.S. tail off. And then you’re going to have to see where they’re willing to compromise. It’s going to be about exports and trade. Is it going to be about the exchange rate? It’s going to be about investment. Tick-tock might be on the table. There’s a lot of different issues that they could discuss. And at some point, not right now, not next week, they will try and figure out they will pick up the phone and they will figure out how to sit down.
Scott, you talk about how this is about China’s future. China has its own issues. Yes, its economy is slowing down. But the other big issues as well, like are corruption, widespread corruption, political purges. These are barriers to its own development. I mean, how confident can it be when it is facing multiple huge issues?
Scott, you talk about how China’s tech breakthrough is giving it the confidence for the future. Break that down for us. We know that Deep Sea has been able to do AI at a lower cost, but it’s not so much that it is the fact that it is open source that actually gives it the confidence that that can be more innovation in this country of 1.4 billion people.
Sure. This is this is hard dollars and cents and tech issues, not just strictly informal confidence. So going to China over the years, I’ve watched their technology capabilities grow dramatically. For many years, Chinese companies were just partners in auto companies that were really run by their foreign partners. Now, Chinese are world-class auto makers themselves, in many ways ahead of their Western competitors in information technology and devices, from cell phones to pads to all different things. The Chinese have done a lot better in semiconductors, where the U.S. restrictions have been the greatest. The Chinese are beginning to make some headway in even some of the most advanced chips and equipment, and so they have some staying power. So it’s going to be very difficult for the West to impose some kind of technology boycott and greater China’s economy the way they might have before. China still the place where the U.S. still has not gone and where China has not gone is in the financial world. Restrictions on Chinese financial institutions, access to the dollar that would turn the problems into those with the big billions into those with teeth. But that could invite tremendous blowback on the American economy as well. So for the moment, it doesn’t look like they’re going in that direction, although they could if need be.
Hmm. I want to delve slightly deeper into the democratization of A.I., which is what we’re seeing in China right now. We had Deep Sea. We have manners. Where does it go from here?
So you know, the A.I. world has originally been a world of global R&D. Microsoft, other American companies with labs in China actually were the source of China’s original A.I. entrepreneurs that are so famous today. And American companies have turned toward proprietary solutions. The Chinese, facing those kind of restrictions, ironically, have moved in the open-source direction and looked for ways to deal with these kinds of restrictions and in some ways have been very successful. The Chinese have also been amazingly successful at applying A.I. to cars, smartphones, medicine, manufacturing in a way that we’ve not seen with, with others. And so the strengths and weaknesses that the U.S. and China have an eye are asymmetric. They’re both going to be A.I. powers. And I think even though they both have tremendous capabilities in separately, they actually are going to depend on each other to continue to grow and also to build the rules and norms to make sure A.I. is primarily used for good and not for bad purposes.
And Scott, even as we talk about how China currently is on the receiving end, how are you making sense of how the U.S. is looking at it? I mean, why is Trump and the U.S. trying to unravel a multilateral trading system that has been so beneficial to its own country, has made its country rich?
Sure. You know, in general, I think you’re absolutely right that over the last 50 to 70 years, the American economy has blossomed and prospered because in part of connectivity with the rest of the world. But those benefits have been very unevenly shared in the United States. The two coasts have done a lot better than the central part of the United States. And manufacturing workers have not done as well as those in services. And the U.S. has not provided a lot of support for worker retraining and to make the economy more beneficial for others. And so the U.S. and like many other places, is rethinking its relationship with globalization. Trump is the latest incarnation of that. And in their mind, trade deficits represent losses. And so they decided that they it’d be better to blow up the international trading system, then try to tinker with it. They obviously felt the results of that themselves last week and adjusted and are now on Plan B or perhaps Plan C. That’s just at least what that’s done is at least got everyone’s attention. So there are challenges in how the economic system is designed. There is reform that is needed. Even the Chinese say that global economic institutions need to be reformed, but exactly how they should be is going to be up for debate over the next few months as they negotiate and try and find an off-ramp to this crisis. But it’s also going to be with us for a long time figuring out what is the WTO going to do? What was the role of TPP and our RCEP be in there in Asia and beyond? These are all huge questions for which we don’t have clear answers right now.
Well, another huge question is whether it makes sense to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. I mean, there’s some misconception out there that, you know, companies go to China because of cheap labor, but labor in China has not been cheap for years now. It’s really about skilled labor. Some say that only Chinese workers can do, not the Americans. And I think that is something that’s been voiced by even Apple CEO.
Sure. You know, I think in a world where there are not major geostrategic tensions, globalization and pursuit of efficiency make total sense. But when you have geostrategic tensions intersect with globalization, then you have challenges like pandemics, climate change. Resilience is really important, and having your own capabilities are as well. And so it’s not unsurprising that the U.S. would want to increase manufacturing somewhat relative to services. There are now about 13 million people who work in manufacturing in the United States, compared to 140 million in services. That’s a quite a shift from where the U.S. used to be. But the U.S. can try and modify that ratio some, but they’re going to continue to depend on the rest of the world that China included. So I don’t think we should discount that the U.S. has a right if it wants to try and expand manufacturing, that it could strengthen its abilities in other parts of the economy. But that doesn’t mean that it can act all alone in a castle without collaboration with others. That is is very far-fetched. Right.
Scott, I know that you’ve been going to China for decades now. What’s the mood on the ground right now? Is there a sense that the people are backing Xi Jinping and pushing back on the U.S.?
You know. You know, as I mentioned before, China’s economy has really struggled the past few years. China’s political atmosphere has gotten a lot tighter. Its relations with the rest of the world have worsened, that fears about a potential cross-strait conflict have risen and that soured public confidence in China. But when I was there just last month, even without a huge improvement in the economy, most there has been a sea change in attitude, in part because folks look across the Pacific at the United States and really have a hard time understanding why the U.S. is doing what it is doing, its political tensions, changes of fundamental policy about the U.S. role in the world, attacks on political institutions. These really weigh on people’s consciousness and they look at their own country and although maybe not perfectly happy with it, say, well, at least we’re stable. We’re predictable and we don’t like being hit with 145% tariffs. And so even from between, even hawks and liberals in China all think that China needs to defend itself. They don’t know what the ultimate solution for China should be, but they’re ready to push back on Washington right now.
Scott, Great insight. Scott Kennedy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, thank you so much for joining us today. Now we have that China data dumped slightly earlier this morning. Old data coming in better than expected with GDP coming in at 5.4%. Retail sales and, and industrial output is also stronger than anticipated. Bear in mind, though, that this data has come in before that 145% tariffs imposed on China. People are expecting that impact to be seen in the next data numbers. Q1, GDP coming in at 5.4%. The estimate was for 5.2; industrial production, 7.7% versus 5.9 estimates; and retail sales also improving up by almost 6%. Expectations were 4.3%. And China’s property market also has a big room to grow, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
Now, still ahead. So, General, joining us for more insight on China’s economy and the measures Beijing is taking to boost consumption. Keep it here with us. This is the. We’re keeping an eye on Asian currencies, the yuan in particular, because PBMs see keeping an easing bias on the currency as the economy struggles to gain traction. We have the Chinese yuan trading at 7.3331, down about 6/10 of 1% versus the U.S. Coming up, our exclusive interview with a former Chinese deputy finance minister, Zhu Guangyao. Keep it here with us. This is Insight.
Welcome back. You’re watching INSIGHT. Former Chinese deputy finance Minister Zhu Guangyao says Beijing has full confidence in meeting its growth target of around 5% this year. That’s despite risks from the escalating trade war. Zhu also told us exclusively about President Xi’s main principles for dealing with Washington: “A single for this specific negotiation, it should be based on real instruction by two presidents, presidency. Highly emphasize the release of the United States presidency. Always emphasize peace on three principles of mutual respect, all exist, and then seek to use it to develop a healthy, stable and sustainable relationship with you. Unless there is a change of policy, there is a presidency group clearly instructed to all they were all the time is now. That’s based on that. We have what before to deal with U.S. economy. We fully respect the U.S. We fully follow the instructions by President Xi’s presidency. We do everything when to the healthy, stable and sustainable relations with the U.S. But this time we must take action and retaliate because we don’t want the whole world return to the jungle of jungle law.”
So just to be clear, right now, the two sides are not on speaking terms. Officials on both sides are not discussing possible solutions to the trade war. But that’s not subject to how do you define that? You’ve lost the lump sum on ten. I totally accept the U.S. proposal to accept your conditionality. I think that there is no negotiation and must be under the mutual respect and we don’t movement situation. What does mutual respect look like? Would the U.S. have to reduce the tariffs to 85%, 60% to bring President Xi Jinping to negotiations? And all U.S. team always think the President Trump. But the top negotiator U.S. at our for deal is a book written by President Trump and let’s do this now it’s country to country relations. We should certainly follow the law all for WTO to deal with bilateral trade dispute this piecemeal rather than to use law to ask them. So since People’s Republic of China founded the tenor, may well they will yield to outside pressure. So that’s why I hope real negotiator for trade imbalance issue should be based on mutual respect, not to use less pressure. And let’s the other side access to all these inanity is by us and that’s impossible.
Mr. Zhu, what’s the impact of the tariffs on China’s GDP? Currently, the target is around 5%. We’ve seen a lot of downgrades in terms of projections. How confident are you you can achieve the target of around 5%?
We have full confidence to achieve the economic development goal this year. Round of 5% this year is very important for China. This year is the last the awful time, the 14th Five-Year Program. We have the 2035 prospect you there times make time to build China into basically modernize the social needs of the country that will drive growth. What will get you to close to 5%? You take a look at exports. Yes. Number the number was very strong for March, but that was front-loading. You need consumption to drive growth going forward and consumption is weak. You are right. Chinese market is a super large market. We have 1.4 trillion people. We have more than 300 million middle class, but 1.4 billion people are not spending to drive the economy, but to know that we have this fundamental change and we encourage people spending and expansion, domestic consumption, we have full confidence that domestic consumption will be increased. And we last saw productivity as we last the technology development and particularly digital economy. Last year, our digital economy put the total capacity of our economy is already more than 40, 44.6%. This year, if you I expect to spend 10 trillion yuan.
Do you have the capacity to spend to boost consumption and physical capacity?
We have a large role, but we also, to be honest, that we also should deal with some tended local government that that issue. So that’s why say were months ago we took action to increase ¥14.3 trillion mainly to deal with local government. Not that easy. Does this we do actually already. And we hope that kind of result can strongly support the time is economic development. And we also we continue to contribute to global growth and since 2009, all putting people from that tiny area contributed to a new growth of global GDP is more than 30%. I think that’s a good idea. But the world should understand is and you my personal mail on the list demonstrate that global coverage should become more important.
Mr. Zhu, when you take a look at the markets, there’s a lot of…
Preocupação com a possibilidade de a China vender seus ativos em títulos do Tesouro. A China fez isso? A China faria isso? Já considerou despejar os títulos do Tesouro americano?
Em minha experiência profissional, temos comunicação muito próxima com a equipe do Tesouro dos EUA. Entendemos isso muito bem. O Tesouro dos EUA é muito cuidadoso com o rendimento e com o preço dos títulos do governo dos EUA. E agora, se houver dez anos, governo dos EUA, o título é superior a 4,5%. Acho, francamente, que isso é uma grande pressão para o governo dos EUA, porque no ano passado, 2020, de todos os pagamentos de juros dos títulos do governo dos EUA, há US$ 1,12 trilhão e comércio dos EUA que há US$ 0,2 trilhão. Isso são mais dois trilhões, eu entendo. Isso é uma ação que deve ser tomada para corrigir o, mas ação correta, não uso muito frequente de poder recíproco.
A China consideraria despejar e vender títulos do Tesouro dos EUA para contra-atacar a guerra comercial? Digo a vocês, eu costumava estar na coletiva de imprensa e disse muito claramente: Há um chinês no meu governo chinês. Eu, como um investidor muito responsável, entendemos o quão importantes são para o mercado global a capacidade. No entanto, as necessidades dos EUA são baseadas em entendimento mútuo, respeito mútuo e cooperação mútua. Eu realmente espero que os EUA e a China possam, com base no respeito mútuo, retornar à negociação para resolver o problema de cada lado e assim por diante.
Quero tocar na questão do yuan chinês. Estamos vendo as fixações diárias sendo mais fracas do que o esperado pelo mercado. Estamos vendo os sinais, o início dos sinais de uma desvalorização da moeda e do acordo de dez anos? E nossa política é muito clara. É relativamente estável. É nossa verdadeira política de reequilíbrio. E você pode ver nas últimas semanas ainda menos grande turbulência no mercado. Mas isso pode significar que você mantém isso relativamente estável, mesmo. Isso é 3,7.304 e o Dow, e essa é a flutuação do mercado. Mas, em geral, vemos que a política relativamente estável é nossa política. Alguns dizem 7,5, 7,57 menos três. E isso é pequeno, pequeno por falta de uso, porque temos um nível central e preço final e o banco do povo nos mantém muito cuidadosos para gerenciar seu fornecimento. E é por isso que temos plena confiança, mesmo a velocidade do mercado internacional. Pode ser que teremos estabilidade relativa e a China contribuirá para o mercado global para sua capacidade.
Ally foi o ex-vice-ministro de finanças chinês Zhu Guangyao falando exclusivamente com a Bloomberg. E temos algumas manchetes para contar a vocês. O presidente Donald Trump usando o True Social para dizer que os EUA estão recebendo um número recorde em tarifas, com o custo de quase todos os produtos caindo, incluindo gasolina, mantimentos e quase tudo mais, ele diz. Da mesma forma, ele diz que a inflação está baixa. Promessas feitas, promessas cumpridas, segundo o presidente. Novamente, o presidente Trump no True Social está dizendo que o custo de quase todos os produtos nos EUA está caindo. A inflação, ele diz, está baixa.
Dando uma olhada em onde estamos em termos de ativos chineses após a NVIDIA ter sido atingida por restrições adicionais e mais rígidas em suas exportações de chips. Vimos o índice CSI300 atualmente caindo cerca de 1%, Hong Kong mostrando uma queda maior em cerca de dois e meio. E em termos do yuan chinês sete 3329, vimos uma fixação mais fraca do que o previsto pelo PBOC. Veja, é claro que estamos vendo uma depreciação gradual dessa moeda para talvez refletir a fraqueza de sua economia. E novamente, as vendas de varejo industrial de março da China superaram as estimativas para o PIB chegando mais forte do que o esperado. Mas esses dados chegaram antes das tarifas de 145% serem implementadas pelos EUA. O consumo é fundamental e é nisso que o governo chinês espera se concentrar daqui para frente.
Agora vamos obter a reação aos dados econômicos dos líderes da China com Wei, nosso chefe de pesquisa e economista-chefe da P&G, Société Générale. Wei, dê-nos uma ideia dos números que vimos hoje. Sabemos que foi antes das tarifas entrarem em jogo. Esse é o melhor que veremos? Vai ser uma ligeira queda a partir daqui?
Bem. Então, obviamente, no segundo trimestre, tomaremos um golpe. Acho que isso é inevitável com todas as tarifas dos EUA. A economia foi bem. Houve um carregamento antecipado, houve ajuda política. E agora definitivamente precisamos de mais apoio de políticas de saúde para amortecer algumas das quedas. O segundo trimestre começando para mim. Segundo trimestre. Sim. Quanto apoio político. Alguns dizem que o estímulo fiscal é fundamental neste momento. Não se trata apenas de política monetária, e os números sendo apresentados variam de ¥2 trilhões a ¥10 trilhões.
OK. Então, então nós apenas revisamos para baixo nossa previsão do PIB de 4,7% anteriormente para 4%. E isso é uma suposição de que o governo chinês estará disposto a entregar um estímulo fiscal adicional no valor de 3 trilhões de P&D. Claro, se eles estiverem dispostos a fazer mais, seria melhor. Mas, você sabe, quando você olha para a estratégia da China, certo, então eles decidem não recuar nas tarifas, o que é apenas lógico esperar que eles irão aumentar seu estímulo fiscal. Portanto, achamos que eles pelo menos entregariam uma quantia significativa para amortecer a dor.
Sua suposição é que o PIB chegará a 4%. A suposição da China é próxima de 5%. O que será necessário para que ele chegue perto de 5%? Quanto estímulo é necessário para isso?
Bem, para chegar a 5%, eles precisam fazer mais. Claro, antes disso, há uma pergunta, você sabe, se teremos mais, mais tipos de isenções de tarifas. É provável, mas é incerto. Na frente do estímulo, você sabe, as coisas óbvias que eles precisam complementar são, com certeza, muito mais o consumo. Em segundo lugar, eles realmente precisam fazer muito mais em termos de estabilização do setor imobiliário. Então, todas as opções, eles estavam pensando que estava crescendo, mas estava indo lentamente, como, você sabe, removendo ações do mercado para estabilizar o setor imobiliário. E eu sei que, você sabe, eles sabem que agora todos têm que acelerar significativamente.
Então, é justo dizer que vimos o pior do consumo, vimos o pior para o setor imobiliário. Estamos vendo, você sabe, o ritmo de queda em termos de preços das casas diminuindo um pouco também. Não. Acho que, a curto prazo, ainda haverá um obstáculo, certo? É uma questão de quanto estímulo eles estão dispostos a fornecer se eles entregarem e as coisas começarem a se estabilizar e melhorar, talvez para o final do ano ou segundo semestre. Mas eles têm que fazer isso. Eles têm que fazer isso agora.
Sim. O que você vê o PBOC fazendo? Acho que ser mandão ou, claro, eles poderiam cortar as taxas de juros ou o R tripla, mas o mais importante é, um, como eles vão gerenciar a moeda? Somos da opinião, você sabe, alguma depreciação em relação ao dólar americano é provável, mas não significativa. Porque, você sabe, muita depreciação também pode ser negativa para a confiança doméstica. E o segundo para o PBOC é como eles gerenciam os rendimentos dos títulos, que é essencialmente, essencialmente, você sabe, uma espécie de extensão de seu trabalho de gerenciamento das taxas de juros, de forma ampla, porque a emissão de títulos certamente irá disparar a partir daqui se o estímulo fiscal for seguido. Então, de certa forma, esperava-se que o PBOC gerenciasse mais ativamente o gerenciamento dos rendimentos dos títulos da curva.
Vamos abordar como ele está gerenciando a moeda. O yuan caiu 8% em relação ao euro, cerca de 6%, eu acho, em relação aos EUA. Vimos uma depreciação gradual da moeda. O PBOC está gerenciando bem a depreciação? Tem sido bastante estável no lado negativo, certo?
De fato. Até agora. Até agora, tudo bem. Você sabe, dado que, afinal, os EUA impuseram este nível muito alto de tarifa sobre a China, a pressão sobre a moeda para se depreciar ainda mais é grande. Mas dado, você sabe, o quão estável é, você sabe, eu acho que eles estão fazendo um trabalho bastante decente. Mas, você sabe, estamos apenas no início de ver alguns efeitos da tarifa. Você sabe, pode haver mais coisas acontecendo. E, você sabe, eu não acho que a pressão acabará muito rapidamente.
Então, quanta mais depreciação na moeda é necessária sem desencadear o tipo de resposta que vimos em 2015, quando a depreciação e desvalorização da moeda levaram a uma venda de ativos chineses? É, você sabe, é definitivamente, você sabe, eles não deveriam fazer uma desvalorização de grande porte. E acho que não esperamos que eles façam. Não é uma boa escolha para eles. Em segundo lugar, você sabe, falando sobre taxa de depreciação, acho que, você sabe, menos de 5% provavelmente é tolerável, mais de cinco. Pode ficar complicado. Mas, você sabe, é uma situação muito fluida no momento. Então precisaríamos ver.
Wei, sabemos que a China está tentando mudar a maneira como impulsiona o crescimento no país, agora impulsionado pelo consumo. Mas este é um modelo que leva muito tempo. O que você vê impulsionando o crescimento nos próximos quatro anos dentro da administração Trump? Parte de você, eu suponho. Quero dizer, o que pode ser esperado na história de crescimento da China nos próximos quatro anos?
Acho que agora eles não têm escolha a não ser apoiar o consumo. Certo. Entendo, você sabe, há muito do roteiro que é surpreendente se a China pode fazer isso. Nossa opinião é que eles definitivamente podem fazer isso. Então, o que o sol pode fazer? Ele é, você sabe, eles, acho que agora existem opções que eles não estavam tão dispostos a tomar. Eles terão que tomar agora, ou seja, você sabe, mais tipo de apoio à renda para talvez ainda direcionar a população, população de baixa renda, mais subsídio de consumo e provavelmente mais importante é acelerar o desenvolvimento do sistema de seguridade social. Então, se eles puderem avançar concretamente nessas frentes, juntamente com a estabilização do setor imobiliário, podemos ver a participação do consumo na economia crescendo, finalmente crescendo novamente. Acho que isso é realmente bastante plausível.
Agradecemos seus insights, Wei, Société Générale. Muito mais pela frente. Fique conosco. Esta é a Bloomberg.
Bem-vindos de volta. A Reuters está relatando que a Tesla está suspendendo seus planos de enviar peças da China para o caminhão semi-elétrico Cybertruck. A medida pode interromper o plano da Tesla de iniciar a produção em massa dos modelos muito aguardados. Não está claro quanto tempo a suspensão vai durar. A Tesla também parou de aceitar novos pedidos para os modelos S e X, já que a China impõe uma tarifa de 125% sobre produtos americanos.
Agora, permanecendo com os automóveis, o principal executivo da Hyundai Motors espera que os preços dos carros permaneçam relativamente estáveis nos próximos meses, apesar dos custos adicionais da guerra comercial global. O presidente e CEO, Jose Munoz, disse-nos exclusivamente que a melhor maneira para a montadora responder é aumentando a produção nos EUA. No caso da Hyundai Motor Company, produzimos nos EUA, não produzimos no México. Pode ser muito pequeno, mas tomamos a decisão consciente de investir aqui nos EUA. O resto da produção vem principalmente da Coreia do Sul. Bem, fazemos parte da Aliança para Inovação Automobilística. John Bozell, o presidente, representa a indústria e está transmitindo ao governo as necessidades que temos na indústria, que são praticamente comuns em todos os setores. E então sabemos que existem algumas discussões entre o governo sul-coreano e a Casa Branca, das quais não participamos ativamente. E, obviamente, não posso revelar o que eles conversam. Mas definitivamente todos queremos garantir que haja um campo de jogo plano para todos, para que possamos competir em bons termos no mercado. E queremos ser competitivos, ou seja, manter essa mensagem para o consumidor. Seremos competitivos e o mercado decidirá, dependendo da oferta e da demanda, se haverá algum aumento de preço ou não. Mas novamente, precisamos ser competitivos, certo? Então foi isso que eu estava me perguntando. Quero dizer, o que significa competitivo? Isso significa que você está absorvendo o custo para manter sua participação de mercado, você sabe, mantendo seus custos que os consumidores pagam, os compradores de carros pagam e estão dispostos a levar o golpe ou, você sabe, como essa dinâmica funciona?
Essa dinâmica não é diferente da maneira como tem sido feita nos últimos 30 anos. É simplesmente, a curto prazo, um fardo adicional a ser gerenciado, dadas todas as implicações do excesso de oferta. Novamente, nosso trabalho é focar no que podemos controlar. O custo é algo que podemos controlar. Como estamos respondendo ao aumento das tarifas, localizando e investindo mais no país para não sermos atingidos por tarifas? Essa não é uma solução simples. E então, do lado da receita, teremos que ver como o mercado reage se tivermos a oportunidade de talvez reduzir alguns incentivos, aumentar o preço aqui ou ali, o faremos. Mas você não verá um aumento enorme de repente. Mas não estamos planejando remover carros do portfólio simplesmente por causa das tarifas, etc. Novamente, o mais importante é um bom produto, produto seguro, boa qualidade, bons recursos e ser competitivo no mercado. E o resto é nosso trabalho tentar otimizar.
Então, localização. Hyundai Motor CEO Jose Munoz falando com Katy Greifeld da Bloomberg.
Nos mercados, estamos de olho nos fornecedores asiáticos da Nvidia após as novas e mais rígidas restrições aos chips H20 que a NVIDIA exporta para a China. E disse que custará bilhões de dólares, cinco bilhões e meio de dólares em termos de baixas, em termos de como está se saindo entre e vários fornecedores na Ásia caiu mais de 3%. Samsung Electronics. Também está sendo afetada agora. TSMC caiu 2,5% juntamente com os avanços. Claro, isso reflete uma expansão na guerra comercial entre os EUA e a China.
Vamos virar a página de onde estamos em termos de futuros dos EUA, é claro, trepidação para os investidores também. Futuros apontando para uma abertura mais baixa. Futuros do S&P caíram 9/10 de 1%. Esse risco sendo refletido em onde o ouro está sendo negociado agora. É um dos ativos que está realmente sendo negociado perto de outro recorde.
Antes de irmos, aqui está uma olhada em nosso programa de amanhã. Teremos uma análise de mercado fresca com a Aberdeen Investments. Isso enquanto monitoramos os riscos e aguardamos decisões de taxas da Coreia do Sul e do BCE. Isso é tudo para insight. Fique conosco. Este é o retorno.