Transcription
Alright, let's take stock 24 hours after the crash, to look in a bit more detail technically at what we don't want to see to truly enter a bearish phase. Was it really the ultimate flash crash that liquidated the entire market and cleared all leverage, and we could potentially move on, or on the contrary, are we really entering bearish dynamics with lower price targets? We will try to answer these questions honestly today, strictly graphically. Also, we can't rely too much on Trump's words and so on, on the conflict, etc. So, we will really try to establish a technical framework. Just before diving into the analysis, I remind you once again, you have our totally free algorithm service. You keep 100% of the gains, these algorithms are profitable. We show you the performance all the time in the Discord. You have the performance of the last two quarters which are excellent. To access it, it's free. It's the first link in the pinned comment. all the useful information regarding my content. It will take you to this page. You just have to click on this second link here. This is what will allow you to register on Bitgate, your partner link, because it's on Bitgate that we run these algorithms. So you click here to register, simply because there is a contest that has been set up for Bitgate. There is up to $10,000 to be won. So it's worth participating, it's free. You create your account and then you just have to look at this link Algo trading mentorship VIP Alcoin and crypto, and that will give you access to all of this for free. So the algos, what I just told you, but also the mentorship. It's my most complete training on price action, price reading, and we will delve into that today. And also the VIP altcoin and crypto, where I will share the best opportunities on altcoins from my point of view. All of this will be in the Discord, you will have access to it totally free right here. VIP Crypto, hop, Alcoin VIP, and all these channels here.
Now, regarding BTC, well, we can already see that after this large liquidation wick, significant levels were reached. So these significant levels were simply bought back. There are algorithms programmed to buy these levels. What are called sell stop zones. This is where people will either place their stop loss or have liquidation prices. We can also see this here on Block, there were a lot of liquidations here that were triggered. This is what triggered this large domino effect and this large wick. Uh, well, we can see that there are many lower ones if liquidations occur, there are always, of course, people who take leveraged trades. That's not the most important thing. The most important thing is to look at the market structure, that is to say, switch to larger timeframes and see what's happening there. So, I'm going to remove all the charts for a moment. First, we will also base ourselves on the CME close. What needs to be understood is that the CME closed at $11,465. So, theoretically, we could say that BTC could go back up to this level to prevent the formation of a gap. Now, for me, what will be most important for the price will be BTC's reaction in this large bearish impulse because this is where the sell-off occurred, this is where the crash formed, and therefore it formed what is called a fair value gap. And so here, we know that theoretically there are chances that the market will return, and we will know. If BTC gets rejected in this fair value gap zone between 11,300 and 11,9400 because this fair value gap forms after the top was taken. This is where sellers had their stops, and we talked about it. I'm a little wary personally. So, I repeat, I did not expect it to crash like this at all. It was unpredictable. But, we expressed doubt about the validity of this movement because very often movements that are triggered without taking stops, especially at the beginning of a quarter, are very suspicious. That is to say, when the market came in a straight line here, rushing, thus triggering all the stops here, it is very suspicious. If we had had a liquidity grab beforehand, it would have been much less suspicious for initiating a real movement. But, so I'm not surprised that we're returning to this zone, but I am surprised by the speed at which we've returned to it, of course. We were talking about this zone. Anyway, we don't care about that. The most important thing will be the price reaction in this FVG. So we have the summit of Saturday. If, for example, on Sunday or Monday, we see Bitcoin entering this zone quite quickly and getting rejected, that could be a sign of a retest of the wick. And so, often what the market can do is retest the median threshold of the wick. So that's around $107,000. simply to retest the support. It has already been cleared, so the stops have been taken, but the price could very well come back to test the support, and this wick, what we don't want to see to enter a bearish dynamic, which would be extremely negative for Bitcoin, is the break of this order block here. Now, for those who saw the mentorship, I did courses on this, specifically the free mentorship. You have a course here on order blocks, how to identify them, identify good order blocks, interesting order blocks, etc. Here we have an order block. Roughly speaking, the order block will form a support. Often the price does two things. Either it takes the stops of the order block, or it forms what is called a breaker block. We talked about it here. Be careful, this is a weekly order block. There are chances because I'm telling you, this is a pattern I see very often on BTC. Bitcoin often comes to take the stops of the order block before reversing. And order blocks, you need to know how to identify them. For example, this is not an order block. Okay? So here, we had a weekly order block. The market just came to purge the stops, and well, afterwards, of course, there's the crash, etc., but it was a very important zone. Also here, we have an order block. Okay, here it has the characteristics of an order block. We see that the price came to purge the stops of the order block. What we don't want to see is the following pattern, the breaker block, because that would reverse the weekly dynamic. Where is our last order block and our last higher low? It's here. If Bitcoin settles below this low, there is an inversion in the market structure. A structure that was bullish weekly would become bearish. And at that point, that would be the signal that we are entering a bearish swing, very likely. A bearish swing does not mean a bear market. This week, I will release a video on cyclicity and what I think about it. I personally don't think we are entering a bear market, even if we have a bearish swing. What needs to be clearly distinguished between a bearish swing and a bear market. A bear market is a very often bearish market that will last on average between 12 and 24 months, and more often around 18 months on average. Even on the US indices, for example, that's roughly the measure, the time we've measured for a bear market. Bitcoin is very often the case, usually around 360 days, something like that, before marking the low. Here, 364 days, so about 1 year. Afterwards, we don't immediately start again, there's often a period of sideways movement, etc., etc., but I don't think we're entering a bear market unless the US indices and the US economy plunge into recession, which I think is unlikely to happen because yesterday I gave you the scenarios. I think the most probable is that this conflict between the USA and China will be resolved positively, but not now. So I think the markets will remain a bit turbulent. This is what the January barometer indicated for those who follow the macro reviews. So, that's the barometer, it indicates a big crash on the Nasdaq in October. Are we really entering it? Difficult to say. We can't guarantee it 100%, but it could potentially trigger a cleanup. And again, I repeat, it will be for those who watch the macro reviews, I've been saying it for a long time, the day, and I don't know if the price will do it, but the day the indices return to these price zones, so around the levels, let's say March or May 2025, not April, I don't think we'll revisit this wick, but I think we can revisit, at least fill the fair value gap in the coming weeks, not necessarily now, I don't know what will happen now, but these are long-term investment zones because I still think that US indices will remain bullish in the long term. I don't think we're going to enter a recession and a crisis now. Afterwards, I'm telling you, if it were to happen, I'd say good, because that's what could launch a real season for cryptos afterwards, because when there's a crisis, the Fed lowers rates very, very strongly, which injects a lot of liquidity, and 12 months, 18 months later, well, it's madness because there's enormous liquidity, and investors abuse it, banks abuse it, they borrow, they borrow a lot of money from the central bank, and all of that ends up on the markets. Anyway, and so here, as I was saying, we're talking about a bearish swing, and essentially what Bitcoin does every time it starts a bearish swing in an uptrend, so in a bull market, it's simply retracing the 382. And so that's something we could do again. For example, we did it very well here, we retested the 382. For those who took the school training, we call this the first stop. It's a level that will judge whether the trend remains bullish or not. We assume that as long as this level is maintained, we are still in an uptrend and the most probable thing is to make a new ATH. So that's what was done here when we went from 30,000 to 25,000. That's what was done here when we went from 74,000 to about 50,000. Also, that's what was done here during the crash with, well, the crash, the fall with Trump's tariffs. And then, well, if history repeats itself, theoretically, it's a zone we could revisit. The order block, by the way, is a monthly order block, the last monthly order block, which is around $83,000. Then, when we refine it a bit here, it works well. It's roughly retesting this fair value gap which is still open and which perfectly corresponds to the first stop and which is also the inversion signal we had, that is to say this breaker block. This breaker block marked the inversion. There was already one here, a second one here. This one really marked the price inversion. And so it's a zone we could retest. This breaker has never been retested. I don't know if it will be the case, but theoretically it's a zone we could re-enter, only if our bearish signal is confirmed, which would be settling below the last order block, which would validate a breaker block and allow us to enter a bearish swing with certain objectives. The first would be $98,000 because that corresponds to the monthly fair value gap here which has not been filled. And also, we would obviously have the zone I just indicated. So, roughly around, to give a large zone, let's say around $83,000 to $92,000. And that would probably be a bottom zone for Bitcoin. The day Bitcoin breaks free of this zone, it opens the door to deeper retracements, particularly in 2026, well, the low of 2025. So it will actually be the low of the tariffs, or a reloading zone. But we're not there yet. That's really if we enter a bear market. Again, it's complicated to say, are we on the verge of a bear market here? Personally, I don't think so, again, because it wouldn't make sense with what's happening in the US markets. But that we have deeper retracement phases. Yes, that's possible. If the US markets themselves crash. Okay. And we don't know if we're just at the beginning, if we're really starting to crash or not. For example, we could very well go for the previous month's low, $23,200. But I'm telling you, the real zone, if it really starts to fall heavily here, it would be more the monthly FVG. So, that would be between $22,300 and $22,800 if we really start to trigger a more significant bearish phase. Here, we can see that we are currently, and that's why I'm talking about indices today, it's important. We see that we are closing the fair value gaps of the previous leg. If everything is fine, and the market restarts next week, thank you, goodbye. If we start to settle below the Weekly FVG, so really settle below this week's close, then yes, we can start to say "Okay, the market will go purge the lows towards $23,200 and maybe lower." And so that can create selling pressure on BTC. The risk on Monday is that for Bitcoin, well, the ETFs were closed. That's the thing, the ETFs were closed, and so those who want to take risks on the ETFs couldn't. But in fact, the risk is that on Monday, as soon as the ETF markets reopen, well, we'll have big players selling, simply. And so if they do that, well, it will create outflows, and then the ETF managers, Crooc, etc., will have to sell, simply, the spot backends, and so that will create selling pressure. So that's what actually makes Bitcoin potentially revisit this wick, and that's why we'll then observe if we break this order block or not. Honestly, I'm telling you, as long as this order block is not broken, we have a chance that the worst is behind us and that Bitcoin can slowly rise again, continue to rise, reach its ATH, and try to break its trendline. But that, what will give us the answer to this question, of course, is the price breaking this FVG. That's absolutely what needs to be broken. Okay? If we really manage to break this FVG, there's a high chance that we'll go against this movement, and that the liquidation wave will trigger an acceleration on BTC. In short, everyone got kicked out, there's no one left with leverage, the market goes against it and forces people to buy higher. Second scenario is the following: rejection of the FVG. And there, that opens the door to retesting the wick without necessarily forming the breaker block that I showed you weekly. However, if it forms, expect more of a drop below $98,000, and I'll tell you personally, the zone I think could really form a bottom if we start a bearish swing, it's more between $83,000 and $91,000. Again, I don't know if we'll get there. If we do, it's clearly an opportunity to position yourself on BTC for the long term. Why? It's 2025. Okay, what needs to be understood is that if you invest long-term, you think long-term on BTC. What needs to be understood is that the production cost of a Bitcoin currently is around $9,000 to $53,000. We have reports where some mine lower, but roughly the big average is here. So we already know that at the next halving, this production cost will double. So, to put it simply, I'll take the price range here, I'll go up 100% here, and I'll go up 100% here as well. And I'm telling you, it might even be a bit more than that because by then the hash rate will have increased further. For those who don't know what hash rate is, it's simply, roughly, the current network power. The more chips that are connected to mine Bitcoin, the more the hash rate will increase, and the more the network difficulty will increase. So that increases the production cost. So here we can look, for example, at the total hash rate over the long term, it's just exploding, this hash rate. I'll remove the price. So, this is the Bitcoin hash rate. In fact, the more the hash rate increases, the more the network difficulty increases. We see that the difficulty is exploding. So, the more the difficulty explodes, the more the production cost increases. That's why theoretically, the real production cost, I think it's a bit higher than that. But who knows, let's assume it's really here. That would mean that at the 2028 halving, the intrinsic value of Bitcoin will be between $108,000 and $180,000. That means that theoretically, if you buy Bitcoin again for the long term at $85,000, there's a very high chance that after 2028, you can sell it for $180,000. We agree that this is not a bad investment. We're talking about a 100% return in 3 years. There aren't many investments. Well, you'll tell me, "Yes, my altcoin did X4 in a week." Yes, but I mean investments this safe. I'm not sure that in 3 years US indices will do three times, will do x3, for example. I'm not sure gold will do x3. I don't believe it, even. Real estate with interest rates so high, I don't know if by 2028 there will be x3. Maybe in emerging countries, everything that is Vietnam, etc. Well, I don't know, it's not my area. I'm not talking about that on this channel, where there are emerging countries, where there are really sought-after areas with high returns that yield significant multipliers in real estate. But again, x2, that safe, I don't know many. And it will perhaps even be more than x2. So this is more in an investment mindset. Now, also, it's the impact that this could have on altcoins if we start a bearish swing. That is to say, well, the first quarter of the year was bearish, the second was bullish, the third was bullish, the fourth came to purge the top of the third, marking the reversal, and therefore a bearish fourth quarter. If that's the case, yes, this zone could potentially be retested. The impact on altcoins will depend on the altcoins. For example, yesterday I talked about it, an asset like Solana or Ethereum, well, since they didn't have this liquidity crash, well, they could potentially fall lower than the crash wick we had yesterday. So, for example, I don't know, I'm talking nonsense, but revisiting these supports around $1,300, for example. Ethereum, for example, I'm talking nonsense, but filling the fair value gaps here a bit deeper. So, for example, a reloading zone in the FVGs, I've already talked about it, but well, returning to this price level, I'm talking nonsense, but let's say $3,200 to $2,600, for example, these would be opportunities to position yourself again, buy low, sell high. It's not because we're coming back here that the market is dead. Besides, I'm not even saying we're going to get there. It's to tell you that if we start a bearish swing, these could be targets to buy as an investment. I did a course on this in the mentorship, specifically here, which is the practical accumulation strategy, via SSL and FVG. It's a strategy I give you to do DCA very intelligently to be sure to exit with a gain afterwards. And then, on the other hand, there are cryptocurrencies like, let's say, I took the example of AAVE, which had major liquidity problems. I'm taking AAVE because it's one of the biggest, but of course, 90% of the market had a liquidity problem. Well, them, as I said yesterday, they won't necessarily come back to the very bottom of the wick. What you need to realize is that if Bitcoin enters a bearish swing, we will retrace this wick. And often what happens from experience with these large liquidation wicks is that it often comes back to the RLZ at a minimum. That means that for AAVE, if it starts a bearish swing, expect us to return probably between $140 and $115. And you take all the cryptocurrencies like that that interest you. So, you take the big crash we had. You switch to 5 minutes, you take the bottom of the wick. Okay, let's wait for my TradingView to load. You take the bottom of the wick. Here, you take the top of the rebound. Well, it's a bit annoying with these big wicks, liquidity problem. Let's say, I'll focus more here where the price was really worked. Let's say the RLZ is around $140 to $115. Well, if Bitcoin starts a bearish swing as I showed you, so this is the futures which is closed. But if we retest these price zones, the breaker block and so on, and these fair value gaps, and that could allow things like AAVE to revisit these RLZs. And it's here that the opportunities are, it's not here that you should panic, of course, because in fact, people will sell here, they will panic very likely, whereas these will be buying zones. I'm not saying we'll get there again, it's in case there's just the bearish swing. If we don't enter the bearish swing, then life is good. It's that, roughly speaking, what will probably happen is that BTC will come back into contact with its trendline. Except that since the trendline is an important level, this crash allowed them to clear out everyone who was on leverage and launch a big acceleration on the market. Well, I'm sorry, TradingView has bugs. I think there are a lot of people on TradingView right now, but roughly, this crash we had, it has so much... devalued the market that now we can finally break our trendline. And roughly, well, what happens is that the market liquidated everyone. It goes against it, we come into contact with the trendline, we explode, and then it accelerates, simply. Is this scenario very realistic? Yes, it can happen. Now, as I told you, I don't want to bet on that right away. I want to see how the price will react in this FVG zone because really, if we get rejected, well, it's more indicative of a market that has the potential to clean up a bit more, especially if there's pressure on the indices. After all, honestly, I'd say it's 50/50. How will this conflict between the USA and China be resolved? Will we start to see economic slowdown, etc., etc.? We can see that as soon as the markets are stressed, the probabilities of interest rate cuts increase, which is quite normal. As soon as you see the index market correct, we will quickly give more weight to lowering rates because when the economy, well, if you want, the US market represents the US economy, and the more it falls, the more it loses a lot of money, and the more, to compensate for this lack of money, we can lower rates to stimulate liquidity. And that's why here, for example, the market would already be potentially ready to start considering a fourth rate cut from early 2026. So, for example, if the indices continue to fall, there's a chance that the market will price in even more rate cuts. That's why I'm telling you that if there's a sell-off in the US indices, it's an opportunity, as it was the case here, because in the long term it remains bullish, and that at some point, we talked about it in the macro reviews, this movement has to retrace and correct. There are target zones, 2800, maybe even 21100. But again, that changes nothing at all to the fact that it would remain a bullish market in the long term. These would be opportunities to position yourself because central banks will continue to lower rates, will continue to devalue currency, will continue to inject, to print liquidity, and you know that unfortunately, those who don't invest their money will continue to get poorer, and those who invest their money will continue to get richer. That's the economic model we've been in since the creation of the Fed. I'll let you go and find out when the Fed was created, go to the US indices and see what happened afterwards. And unfortunately, well, we'll remain in. Fortunately for those who know how to play this system, and unfortunately for those who don't, we remain in this system. And so, well, those who know how to benefit from it make money, those who don't, unfortunately, lose their money. That's why I say that these will be opportunities, and it's not the beginning of a crash, a bear market, an economic end, unless there are really recessions and other things, but that's not necessarily the most probable thing right now. Okay? And that's why, if the US indices accelerate, there's a Bitcoin that could also, of course, head towards lower phases because when we look at ETFs, we see that we haven't necessarily had massive outflow phases like we've had. And so there are always these phases with massive inflows then outflows. Massive inflows then outflows. But what needs to be understood is that in the long term, the trend remains bullish. What I mean is that theoretically, in the long term, as long as Bitcoin doesn't break the last monthly low, which is also an order block, we don't fear a bearish market. This means that we are in a higher low, a higher low to seek further bullish continuation. Now, yes, we're talking about a bearish swing. If the breaker really forms here, a Bitcoin settling below $107,000 sustainably would be the validation of a breaker block, and that could mark a continuation of this bearish swing. Regarding ETH, ETH will be very quick, it's mainly Bitcoin that is the master of the market. Ethereum has purged a lot. We came to seek the first stop here. So it's a key level, one not to lose. $3,560 is really key. We have exactly the same FVG. Now, what reassures me in the idea that we will see an ATH again after this bearish swing is what we are leaving behind us. The relative like this, the ATH intact, that's rather positive for the future. Now, that doesn't prevent us from starting a bearish swing if Bitcoin starts one. And so, similarly, what we will need to observe is this bearish FVG right here on Ethereum. So I'll give you the price levels, which will simply extend from $3,887 to $4,271, or rejections in this zone. Yes, that could be a sign of a future bearish leg. And at that point, the objectives are quite clear. It's, well, if we break the first stop, it's to purge the stops below this low, so $3,352, because that covers a monthly vectorial FVG which has a high chance of being retested. And theoretically, we could say that, and this is more thanks to futures that we can see this, by the way. Thanks to futures. Right here, hop, we'll wait for it to load a bit. I'm sorry, TradingView is bugging. I think there are really too many people connected, but we can see that we had purged all the annual lows here, which marked our low. And in fact, this large monthly FVG, well, this is a break and gap, this is a fair value gap. Theoretically, we could say that, I'm saying in theory, that the price can simply come and retest this monthly FVG to make the next upward leg like this. And so, well, this is on the CME, it corresponds roughly to $3,500 to $3,000. I'll give you on the perp market, our market, how much does it correspond to? Because regarding contracts, there are slight differences between futures and perp, which is quite normal. They are not the same contracts, simply, futures expire while ours are perpetual, they never expire. And so here it would be more between $2,008 and $3,300. So it would be an opportunity, simply. This is what needs to be understood, with potentially maybe touching the 618, which would allow us to close the last fair value gap we left here. This is if Bitcoin enters a bearish swing. If Bitcoin doesn't enter a bearish swing, our bottom is here. That is to say, our bottom has formed. We can, at a stretch, annoy a bit those who are buying back, take their stops one last time before really starting to go up again. That wouldn't be impossible at all, but it would mean that the bottom is here or slightly lower. A last deviation, maybe slightly below this low, to then really start going up again. But if Bitcoin enters a bearish swing, there's a high chance that we'll retest the FVGs we've left behind. And so, you have to enter into a buy low, sell high mentality. These FVGs, I buy them. Here, similarly, I place buy limit orders. If we come here, I buy with the intention of selling on the future rise, because what we are leaving behind us is rather favorable for a future ATH. This doesn't really look like a long-term top, honestly. Now, it can take time before we get back there if we really start a bearish swing. It could be, for example, Q4 and bearish, so the fourth quarter of the year is bearish. It ends on December 31st, and then Q1 2026, so the first quarter of 2026 will be bullish and will catch up for the Q4 decline, because often the market evolves from quarter to quarter. For example, if we take the first quarter of the year for ETH, it was bearish until the end. The second quarter started on April 1st, the second was bullish, the third was completely bullish, and the fourth is currently starting bearish. So if the fourth quarter is bearish, potentially the next one could be bullish. So that would mean that until the end of the year, we are more in a bearish market. I remind you, only if BTC validates its breaker block. So if it really settles below $107,000, which is the last weekly level, the last higher low, if it's broken, it will change the dynamic and likely launch us into a bearish swing. I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it, that I've answered as many questions as possible. If so, don't hesitate to smash the blue thumbs, subscribe, leave a small comment. Thank you very much to those who play along. I remind you of all the links in the description box if you want lots of free content. First link in the pinned comment as usual. You also have tutorials on BitGate for those who want to learn how to use the platform, our indicators, well, there's lots and lots of free content. I'll stop here, we'll meet tomorrow.