Transcription
Things are about to get crazy, everybody. I'm talking about in the next couple of days, within the next week. Buckle your seat belts for extreme volatility, for chaos, for elevated unknown in the crypto space.
Whether it's this others BTC chart, I want to take a glance at. I want to do some Ethereum analysis for the purpose of just altcoins in general. I want to dig into the chart. The next couple of days, even the next week, is going to be very volatile, and I want to explain why in this video. So, just hit the subscribe and the like on the way in, and let's just jump into this.
So, let me just first start off with a bit of news that I think is really important for context on the macro. It's, it's, I just have to mention this news. Morgan Stanley brings Wall Street to Ethereum. Morgan Stanley has filed for a spot Ethereum ETF that would track ETH's price and distribute staking and rewards to shareholders. This is another fundamental macro bullish thing that's happening right now. And I'm about to talk about why Friday is just probably going to be very volatile. But I want to keep these things in mind as we start pivoting to talk about those things.
In relation to Morgan Stanley, it's not just Bitcoin. They filed for an ETH ETF as well, following its BTC and Solana filings. Will be the first major bank to offer all three if approved. I just want to make mention of this because this plays heavily into my bull thesis for Bitcoin Runes, the Runes protocol, and Dog, the number one coin on Bitcoin besides BTC itself. Here's Mark Yusko reposting basically saying, "Probably a fad," uh, reposting James who's saying, "Look who's filing for a Bitcoin trust. Looks like Morgan Stanley is going to replicate MicroStrategy." And here's the founder of Dog, Leonitis, "Probably nothing." And here's the filing. Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust filing. This is what was in it, referencing the Runes protocol. Everybody, the, the Morgan Stanley news is for the industry just massive. It's some of the biggest news. I know it doesn't seem like it because price is down, crypto is not rebounding, but from a macro zoomed out perspective, the Morgan Stanley news is big. They ref, they, they reference Runes protocol, and that is Dog, for instance, in their filing, and that is just so bullish for me in my thesis for Runes and Dog itself.
All right, let's start with the potential manipulation that's going on right now. But then I want to talk about why Friday is going to probably be very volatile, and even going into next week. So, I saw this posted. "Morgan Stanley pull off the biggest crypto manipulation." On October 10th, MSCI, originally Morgan Stanley Division, announced a proposal to remove digital asset treasury companies from its global indexes. If you remember, there's just not a good headline at all that came out that includes firms like MicroStrategy, Metanet, whose balance sheet holds billions worth of Bitcoin. Minutes after the announcement, Bitcoin dropped nearly $18,000, erasing more than $900 billion from crypto's total market cap. You might remember this. During this period, Bitcoin dropped about 31%. Like after this all happened, altcoins even more. It was the worst quarter for crypto since 2018. If you remember the 2018 bear market, and then January 1st, sudden pump starts out of nowhere. This is just the other day, a week ago. First, Morgan Stanley filed for its own spot, Bitcoin, ETH, and Solana ETFs. Then, in a few hours, MSCI announced that it would not remove the crypto-heavy companies. After all, the exact rule that caused three months of selling pressure was suddenly withdrawn the same day Morgan Stanley launched a product that benefits from a recovering market. Isn't it so interesting? And you can just see kind of the, the timeline of all this happening. And it does just look like, you know what, besides the liquidity struggle that we have through this entire bear market, finally the liquidity on the Fed balance sheet is starting to tick upwards. And beside the record-breaking contraction in business cycle, which is, I think, why we have not gotten a bull move for crypto, besides it all, we have these games that I think are being played right now. And as far as I know, this isn't illegal at all. But manipulating headlines and, and really manipulating kind of sentiment, sentiment with all of these speculations, is it just seems like a pattern at this point.
Now, let's talk about the volatility that is to come, and then I want to look at some charts. So, I'm not going to read this whole post, but this is Marty Party. He's been tracking this WOFF accumulation, and it's looking pretty crazy. Now, as we go into the rest of this week and into next week, this playing out looks, I mean, it just, I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it's looking so possible and likely.
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So, what he's referencing is Thursday, January 15th. And by the way, this is not the right date, but it's so important what he's saying. He's saying, "Possible key tariff Supreme Court statement." That's number one he's talking about in terms of volatility that could take place in markets. And then there's also the ruling and market structure initial committee vote to proceed. This is next week, and I want to discuss that. But he's basically mentioning, however these things play out will drastically impact the price action and what happens here. And I agree. I think it's going to be very volatile. Here's the thing. It's not January 15th. It's actually in two days. The sup, Supreme Court rules on Trump's tariffs. This has been such a longstanding narrative that has just been manipulating and moving markets up and down all over the place. Supreme Court to rule on tariffs this Friday, everybody. And there's a 20, only a 24% chance for ruling in favor of tariffs. So, if they strike down Trump's tariffs and there's refunds that need to be made, what happens to markets? I just, I don't know. I'm not, I'm not going to talk about or speculate if this is long-term bullish or bearish for markets. This, if that gets struck down, but one thing that I am very sure of, when we start looking at something like an Ethereum chart or altcoin charts or Bitcoin charts, it's going to be so volatile. We might just absolutely crash, and then all of a sudden, something is like looking bullish with the decision, and boom, we rebound. I don't know how it will play out, but just note this is another thing happening now this week that I think is going to just, and, and it gives so much ammo to the market makers and the exchanges to manipulate price. So, that's happening.
And then we have this. We've had a lot of false alarms on market structure bill markups this cong, uh, this Congress, but it looks like we're really doing this next week with it. The rumor mill is running full speed. So, there's a lot of rumors in terms of how it's going, how it's looking. I'd caution against reaching any conclusion until there's public text to discuss, hopefully soon. So, this could be a very bullish catalyst next week, uh, in terms of just market structure clarity. These are huge topics in the crypto space that this, that the market in general has been waiting for. So, how does this play out? Are we going to crash on Friday or over the weekend because of the tariff decision? And then are we going to bounce next week? Because there's like, kind of just this all of a sudden bullish narrative with market structure bill markups happening next week, and what that means for crypto, and maybe the tariff situation isn't as bad as it, as it seems. I don't know. But again, I think there's going to be a lot of volatility. So, these are some things that we have going on in the markets right now.
And I want to look at Ethereum charts. One thing I just want to make a note of. I just, I know it's all I've been talking about, but all we can do, because I have this monthly chart, others BTC. All we can simply do is look at the correlation with the PMI in terms of bull markets and bear markets. All we can do, and all I'm doing, is I'm just like waiting for the, the PMI, this green line, to start turning up. And I guess there, there's never any guarantee it will, but you know, if you go to the PMI chart, I mentioned this in the previous video, you zoom out all the way back to the 40s on this chart, it has always rebounded and recovered. And just look at it. Bounce, bounce, bounce, bounce, bounce, all the time. And I think we're going to get stimulus. I think it's going to bounce. And just waiting for above 50 on this PMI. This is so massive for others BTC. It's so massive for an Ethereum bull market, a crypto bull market. So, we're monitoring this as well.
One thing I wanted to mention in terms of Ethereum, especially as we're talking kind of short term, I have a note, $3,600, right there, just because I think it's an area of interest that I'm watching. If Ethereum can somehow manage to get into this range up here, it's kind of breaking out of this apex of this multi-year triangle, but that 20-week moving average is right there between $3,600, $3,700. And it's notable to me because we had QTN last, uh, last cycle in 2019. And after it ended, you can see Ethereum was bouncing to the 20-week, and then it put in one more big multi-month drop before finally PMI expanded. So, I'm curious to see what happens this time around. This, the structure, the setup, even the moving average momentum is so similar. Is Ethereum going to make a move to the 20-week? If it does, is a rejection? And if it does, does it actually start closing candles above? This could kind of diverge from what it did last cycle. And I think that would be meaningful data to just evaluate on a price action perspective for Ethereum.
So, here's the thing that I wanted to bring up about this. Yeah, $3,600, $3,700 to the upside for Ethereum. Let's monitor to see if Ethereum can make the move. We're at resistance at this multi-year apex to begin with. It might not. So, that's the thing. We're in the middle now because there's the move to the upside, but the move to the downside. And this could play into the, the next coming days or even the next week. Are we about to just crash? Is crypto about to crash once again? Everybody calling the bear market once again because of the tariff decision on Friday, and boom, we're testing the 200-week moving average. So, it's like we have $2,400, $2,500, the, the 200-week moving average. And then we have $3,600, $3,700, the 20-week moving average. We're right in the middle, and this thing could go either way. The volatility is there.
One thing I'd like is, with all of this speculation, we don't know. We have to prepare for all of these scenarios. I just like that this PMI chart, I think, acts as a nice solid macro compass. And that's why I'm continuing to track that data. We just printed, like, you know, the December data. So, now we have to wait weeks now to see how January comes out. There's, you know, we might tick lower. I don't know when this will expand, but that is something that I am very much using as a foundation to my analysis for this cycle. And all the while, in the meantime, I'm just trying to just survive the volatility and really just the continued, you could call it a bear market, the continued bear market that we've been in.
So, uh, I just wanted to bring all this up to you. I hope you got some value from this content. If you did, please consider subscribing if you're not a subscriber, and hit that like button if you did enjoy the video. I will see you all in the next video. God bless.