Transcription
Hello, this is Cryptolie. I hope you are doing well for this week, a very important week that awaits us. Jérôme Poë is preparing for the week after. We are also expecting even more news this week on customs duties. Next week, there will certainly be the meeting between Shinpin, President of China, and Donald Trump, President of the USA. We should have an agreement that should be reached, or at least a reduction in customs duties. Although, a priori, today, we will have an increase in customs duties for Colombia and perhaps also for India. In short, you understand where I'm going with this. We have an ongoing international standoff against a backdrop of interest rate cuts. All of this will strongly impact us, and you will see that in terms of crypto news, everything revolves around this and the news that will come out this week. So, we are 10 days after the monumental crash we experienced, and we will have to hold on tight this week, and perhaps positively. But before we start, for those who don't know my new channel Thibo Invest, I released a new video on GTA V and the principle of inflation applied to GTA 5 and the great reset of GTA 6 and the impact that could have. And that's a bit what we are seeing on our end in terms of the economy. If you're interested, the video is directly in the comments or description. Let's get to the news with 67% of institutions being bullish for the next 6 months for BTC. Be careful, it's Coinbase that conducted the survey, so it's likely a bit biased. But nevertheless, the reality is that we still have on BTC, ETH is still a bit separate, but we still have many companies investing heavily directly by buying Bitcoin. And in the long run, it's certain that the liquidity brought by these ETFs by institutional investors will be positive. However, as I said in the introduction, we are 10 days after the crash. We need to understand the impact of the crash. It's a crushing of liquidity through liquidations, but also market makers who took a big hit in centralized exchanges, and of course, that hurt a lot. But hey, we still have some who buy with strategy, like Michael Saylor, who bought $100 million worth of Bitcoin directly during the crash, which is still very much present. And we also see many companies that continue to buy, and it's very important to see how much this directly impacts the market. On the other hand, we still have this fear about China blocking access to Terra (LUNA) in the USA, and here also a blockage regarding the dollar, and we have a very interesting analysis that explains that globally this could directly affect BTC and gold for a simple reason: the fundamental issue behind this is the fact that we are reducing the impact of the dollar and the strength of the dollar globally, and we have a structural problem with the dollar. This structural problem is mainly linked to monetary printing, which will play a significant role. Well, one way or another, this put us in a bad spot on October 10th with the liquidation cluster we experienced, but we should have good news by the end of this week to prepare for next week. Next week, where we will have the meeting between the two presidents, certainly an agreement will be defined, perhaps not fully validated, but at least elements of an agreement, and that will allow the market to breathe. And especially, we will be preparing for Jérôme Powell, Jérôme Powell with his interest rate cuts. A very important moment next week, but it's being prepared in advance. If we need to go a little further to talk about this liquidation we experienced on October 10th, this liquidation also explains that decentralized finance protocols like Aave and Morpho were very solid, even much more solid than traditional finance and centralized finance (CFI), meaning centralized like Binance, etc. This shows us that we had infrastructure problems related to the excessive leverage we experienced. If you follow the channel, you know this very well. I covered it extensively, particularly in a video called "The Great Reset." But what's interesting to see here is the reflection they have on this and what I told you in the introduction about market makers taking a big hit in CFI, in centralized exchanges. So, that means there is much, much less liquidity. Less liquidity means more slippage, meaning a bigger gap when you buy and sell, and any movement can be amplified, whether up or down. Market makers are the ones who truly provide market liquidity, especially in centralized finance, where there aren't many choices. It's mainly big market makers, and some of them took a real hit due to the difficulty in covering open positions, meaning leverage. This is an explanation for the crash, but it also explains why it always takes a little time to recover and have this re-accumulation phase before acceleration. Another thing that doesn't help, let's be honest, is also the $1.2 billion that has left BTC ETFs. So, we will also have to see this week if we have the same dynamic or if we will have a recovery dynamic. It's worth noting that in the last two days, $530.6 million has left. So, we will see if we are heading towards something positive or if we are still in between, with red and black, meaning inflows and outflows, or if we will be in full outflow. So, a lot of exits, and this is something quite classic when we look at the structure of liquidity injections in ETFs. We see it very, very clearly. I will even zoom in to give you a little more visibility. We indeed have phases of hyper-injection, as we can see here, phases of breathing with quite a few outflows, small plateaus. Similarly, acceleration, plateau, acceleration, and perhaps a plateau before moving again. In other crypto news, we have Stripe's blockchain, Tempo, which has just raised $500 million in a Series A round, meaning a first real fundraising round at a valuation of $5 billion. And yes, the giants of fintech and traditional finance are starting to enter the blockchain space, and of course, there is a lot of money at stake. In the meantime, Donald Trump is once again using customs duties, the combination I told you about, but also India, a priori, to try to force actors to stop buying Russian oil. I don't think it's a sure thing, but in any case, what is certain is that it greatly impacts the economy. We find ourselves exactly as we experienced in March 2025 and April 2025 with the use of duties as a political weapon, and it hurts the market, not the traditional market, but especially the classic market because when we look at the NASDAQ, we see that we had a rather good recovery last week and we are also starting rather positively in an acceleration phase, but what will be crucial to watch will clearly be the dollar index, which is rather falling, which would explain why we have an acceleration phase at the beginning of this week for BTC, which was also very positive over the weekend. Oil is falling. Oil is very important because it's also huge pressure on Russia, on the various countries that buy from Russia. We are breaking $56. So, if we break $56, it means oil will fall. And oil is a source of growth, we agree. But I think we should not underestimate the "drill baby drill" that was launched by Donald Trump, which pushes to exploit American resources to the maximum, and therefore a significant influx of oil onto the market. Hence the downward pressure on oil, which is rather positive for international pressure on Russia. In the meantime, gold continues to rise. Although there was a small plateau, to the point that we see queues to buy gold at various institutions. Here it's in Australia, but it's a bit everywhere. When we start to see this, we can wonder how far it can go and whether or not we have reached a plateau where everyone is in the streets to buy this asset. It's starting to be a sign of a local top, at least. In the meantime, BTC has made a good recovery this month. We see it clearly, we are around $111,000. A rather positive reaction. We have a resurgence in the RSI. So, this is a point that will allow us to push even higher later. We have a good start on the CME, even though we had a small gap in 4 hours, but we see that the RSI remains relatively low, but we are not far from 50. This reminds us a bit of the zone we touched during the March-April 2025 period, and yes, the communication is identical, the structuring of the RSI is also similar, and we are in a rather positive acceleration phase. When we look at the 4-hour chart, we see this phase with the very good rebound around $103,000-$104,000. Upward re-acceleration. We are regaining the trendline we had lost, and we will really need to break the $116,000 level to be very positive. For me, this is truly the trend reversal where we will have established a bottom, a lower bottom. We break the high. We might retrace and then move again. Then we will have a perfect scenario of a re-acceleration phase. However, it's not yet decided. We need to be patient this week. Trump has shown that he is capable of greatly influencing traditional markets, and we are currently being pushed in this acceleration phase by a significant short squeeze. $307 million in shorts liquidated in the last 24 hours. So, a relatively large amount that can be found on the market. And the key level that must be broken is $116,000, as I told you for the reversal, but the level to watch for short reinforcement will be $114,000. At $114,000, there is a risk of a downward continuation. We need to price this in at some point, especially when we look at the weekly chart. Unfortunately, it has not yet fully exited this bearish phase. And again, with the lack of liquidity from market makers, we know it will take a little time, we have to accept it because, of course, it takes time for people to return, mobilize capital again to come back to the market and have a positive phase, that's what will interest us here. Especially if we see an increase in fear, which remains very present, we will certainly see good news that will not be sufficient, and we should see an upward acceleration during this reinforcement of fear. This is a bit of a prelude that we are starting to see here. We just need to be careful not to be in the same situation as before, before something happens like this. So, we should have the answer this week. And this week is precisely why it is important. Before you go, don't forget the short video on GTA V, I'll put it at the end. Very interesting if you want to understand the principles of inflation directly through a video game and the explanation of the impact a great reset could have. And before you go, don't forget to like, subscribe if you liked the video, and I'll see you very soon. Co?