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Whenever inflation surpasses the Fed's interest rates, we will see the reality unfold: 1. The US bond market will be turbulent. 2. The stock market will be turbulent. 3. The US economy will face problems. And 4. Gold prices will fall. The US can control many aspects of the game well, even though they are being fought by the "big bloc" and "Global Sound." But if the next stage is anything, it's because of Donald Trump. I think it's a game where Trump has bet a lot. But actually, at that time, I think I'm not worried about Trump. Netanyahu, with his personality, will surely have problems again.

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I'd like to ask P'Moo first. First, where is the US economy heading? If the Fed on the 18th-19th has a meeting and says they will cut interest rates, what will happen? I think the chance of the Fed cutting interest rates this time is low. Very low. The reason is that inflation in the past 2-3 months has risen by about 1% plus. From about 2-something, right? Now it's up to 3.8%. And many people might not know that 3.8% is not that high for some people. It used to be much higher. I have to explain this: 3.8% is the level that matches the Fed's interest rate. The Fed's interest rate is around 3.7-3.8%. This means they are equal. Now that they are equal, let's look a little further ahead: will inflation rise in May? From April? We have to go back and see if oil prices in May will be high. The answer is yes, mostly around 100-something. Right? That means US inflation will rise from 3.8% to 4%. With some fluctuations. When that happens, it means US inflation will surpass Fed interest rates. Whenever inflation surpasses Fed interest rates, we will see the reality: the Fed will have a very high chance of having to raise interest rates to follow inflation. And if that happens, what will happen? 1. The US bond market will be turbulent. 2. The stock market will be turbulent. 3. The US economy will have major problems. And 4. Gold prices will fall. They will fall because when interest rates rise, gold, which doesn't generate returns other than price fluctuations, cannot compete with interest rates. Therefore, gold actually likes zero interest rates, but it doesn't like high interest rates or rising interest rates. So, what will happen? It will cause problems for the US economy and the US stock market. Therefore, I think the chance of the Fed cutting interest rates is low, but the chance of raising interest rates is still not there. This means they will probably keep interest rates as they are for now. But I will say beforehand that my belief, in terms of economics, geopolitics, and finance combined, is that June will be a month with a very high chance of the Iran-US war ending. I have to ask P'Thani about this. P'Thani has interviewed many gurus on geopolitics and matters related to the Iran-US war. Do you think the Iran-US war will end? Will it end soon? I think Donald Trump, from the messages he has posted, reflects one thing in his heart: he won't fight anymore, he can't stand it anymore. But what he announced most recently is that the US economy is very good, so why is the stock market so red and falling? I also look at Iran in a way that Iran is not really involved in such significant matters. It's only involved with oil. So, when oil prices fall, the chance of the US recovering is very high. And Trump has also hinted a bit. If Kevin were to cut interest rates a little, it would stimulate the US economy well. This means that many people say Kevin is a creation of Donald Trump. The more Trump talks like this, will Kevin dare to cut interest rates? It's like Donald Trump is ordering Kevin. So, I think Kevin will not cut interest rates, just like P'Moo thinks. They will keep interest rates as they are. But Iran should stop. It should definitely stop. It depends on Iran, not on Donald Trump at all. So, Donald Trump can't do anything. He can only wait for Iran. "Damn it, Netanyahu, how can you do this? You're not following my orders!" And then he says, "We must stop fighting with Lebanon so that Iran can return to negotiations and end the war as soon as possible. If the war is not ended by the 15th, global oil stocks will fall to a point where they cannot be controlled. Oil prices will rise to $150 to $200, and the US will suffer greatly. Because oil prices rise, inflation will increase, as P'Moo said earlier, maybe 4-5%, and the Fed will have to raise interest rates. When the Fed raises interest rates, the US stock market might burst its bubble." What do you think, P'Moo? I agree that the US, in reality, can control many aspects of the game well, even though they are being fought against by the "big bloc" and "Global Sound," who are separating themselves, like China, clearly with Russia, and there's the BRICS group, and the decline of the petrodollar. This is true, right? And US military power is declining. But let's observe: the dollar index is stable at 98-99. That's the first point. The second point is that the US economy and the stock market are still rising. They have risen a lot so far, meaning the US is controlling the game well. Inflation has indeed risen, but it's not considered high yet; it's just equal for now. But in the next stage, I think if anything happens, it will be because of Donald Trump. Because if Donald Trump prolongs this, and oil prices surge, and inflation exceeds 4%, forcing Kevin to raise interest rates, right? It will be a chain reaction. This will cause problems for the US bond market, the stock market will fall, the US economy will be bad, and he will definitely lose the election. In the upcoming midterm elections in November. Therefore, they will lose the majority in both houses, the Senate and the House. So, all in all, I think it's a game where Trump has bet a lot. He will have to lose something. And in my opinion, it has reached a point where Trump has gained a lot. He has become the first US president in history to get rich from his portfolio. His portfolio has increased. This is a portfolio increase, right? If I were him, I'd say, "I'm rich now, okay, I can withdraw, but withdraw gracefully." But actually, at that time, I think I'm not worried about Trump. Do you know what I'm worried about? Netanyahu. Why are you worried? Well, you see, most of the problems come from Israel. Israel attacking Lebanon this time, so it hasn't ended, right? Therefore, the problem is really just how much Trump can control Israel. Yes. Ah, that's it. Yes. I think it's like that. I think there's a chance to some extent, but it won't be permanent. It won't be permanent, because believe me, Israel, in the end, with their personality, they will surely have problems again. Yes, yes. I'm confident it will be like that. Yes. But let's focus on this round for now. Let's not think too far ahead. Thinking too far ahead will make your heart tremble. Let's think close by, and your heart will be calm. For now, I believe that June will be a month with a high chance of the US-Iran war ending. Ah, because of the domestic political pressure in the US, economic pressure, investment pressure in the US stock market, US bond market. And the pressure I see this month, energy prices, as you said, if it goes beyond the end of the month, there's a very high chance that global oil stocks will fall very rapidly. So oil prices will surge a lot. So I think before that day comes, Trump will have to decide to stop here. For whom, I don't know. But I think he will stop. Yes, I strongly agree with P'Moo. We've heard a lot from many people. When people say the same thing, we start to gain confidence. But if people say different things, we might not be confident. But what P'Moo says makes me even more confident that Trump will give in. But the one who won't give in is Iran, and the one who has problems is Netanyahu. We can't predict yet. But what we can predict for sure is that there will be many IPOs. On June 12th, will SpaceX crash the stock market? P'Moo, please analyze this. How will the US stock market be affected if large companies go public? Will it cause money to disappear? Let's start with this. First, I think the US stock market will experience ripples, and the gold market will experience ripples from what? From fund flows. Ah, fund flows. We just talked about interest rates to some extent. That's a shock, not a ripple. But this ripple, we're talking about fund flows. Fund flows mean money will move. Where will it move? Some of it, from assets A to B to C, or from stock A to B, stock to C. What will likely happen is this: some money that is withdrawn from, for example, US tech giants or US memory stocks, etc., that are starting to rise, might be moved partly into SpaceX, which will come on the 12th. Ah, because SpaceX's IPO is around $1 trillion, $1.5 trillion, $1.7 trillion. The current market is around $70-80 trillion. Think about the scale, how large it is. And this year, there will be two more big IPOs, right? OpenAI and Anthropic. These two will be smaller than SpaceX, less than $1 trillion each. But combined, they will be around over $1 trillion. You're going to combine 2-3 of them? Uh-huh. It will exceed $3 trillion. Is it big? We have to compare it to the market capitalization. Nvidia's market value is over $4 trillion, around $5 trillion. And Google is also over $4 trillion. So, the combined value of these three is actually still less than just Nvidia alone. So, we're thinking, "Will all this money flow there?" I don't think it will be that much. Another thing is that the US economy is not bad right now, right? Good. So, the global economy, for the most part, I think it's good. Okay. Therefore, the money coming in to invest from the stock market, out of the bond market, I think it will increase. Oh. Do you know why? Because I think US bonds are not risk-free anymore. They are, they are, they are. Before, we used to say US bonds are risk-free. Really now? Not anymore. Second, if the interest rate trend is not rising, it's stable or falling, bonds are even less attractive to buy. True. So, many people don't know that the stock market is huge, $70 trillion. The US bond market is many times larger than the stock market. Therefore, if even a portion of the money comes out of the US bond market, that's enough to cover those three giant IPOs. So, people think simply, "Oh, money must flow from the stock market, within the stock market, from A to B to C." It's not like that. It's not necessary. Money might flow from P'Thani's pocket. P'Thani says, "Should I buy a share of SpaceX for my son?" Oh, can't I? Yes. Why not? Do you want to buy space? Ah, right? Let me ask you, space is the future. Many years from now. I ask, is space important? Important. Is space important for warfare? Important. Ah, let me ask you simply, if you don't have space, what are your missiles? Just scrap metal. Yes. Shoot them and can't find them. Don't know where they went. Ah, right? And is space related to telecommunications? Related. Is space related to business? Related. Related to automation? Related, of course. Related to everything. Related to data centers? Ah, and I ask, can the space business not be good? Very good. Therefore, I want to say that for the new money coming in, don't be too afraid. I'm telling you the truth. For the past 3-4 years, I've heard people fear that the world will end, debt will explode, World War III, oil will go to $200, inflation. How many stories have you heard? Oh, I've stood here for a long time. Why are we still well and alive, coming on the show? Because it didn't happen. Because it didn't happen. Do you know why? I like to use this phrase. Most people who think or analyze tend to think like AI. Think how? Think using past data. Right? Because AI knows that past data, when combined, if it's real data, facts, history, etc., it's very good at that. Yes, yes. But if you ask it about something that changes, "Wait for it to train first." Right? This is why AI models need constant training. Uh-huh. But do humans need training? Yes. We train, and we must not be stagnant. If we are stagnant, we will not be intelligent. In all contexts, I think like this. There will be ripples in stock market prices. But when SpaceX comes, OpenAI comes, or even others. It will create tremors in the fundamental profits of most stocks in the stock market. Let me ask you, AI. What businesses does it affect? Everything! Everything! This is the first time in history. I say this. Right? I ask you, when the internet came, did it affect every business? No, right? It only affected some. And it took a long time to spread worldwide to every business. Do you know why? Because the world wasn't ready. Ah, okay. Try to think with me. Today, there are no smartphones. No. Today, there is no high-speed 5G. No streaming gaming, no e-commerce, no search engines. Can't live without them. And AI has arrived. What's next? It will supplement. What will you use it for? To supplement. You'll press it and wait 5 minutes. Will you wait? No. AI thinks, it thinks, but it takes 5 minutes. Can't do it. Can't use it. Uh-huh. That's why I tell you, today AI still has a lot more to offer. So, don't think that money must move from A to B and cause the market to fall sharply. It will only fall for a while, and in the end, what comes in will create profits and growth for businesses, right? And another thing, new money might move from the bond market. Uh-huh. Maybe from the gold market, some parts. Maybe from somewhere else, who knows? Or think simply. You think. Ah, if I think simply. The sovereign wealth fund of GCC might buy SpaceX. Ah, how do you know? There's a chance. See? Therefore, don't interpret it simply. In economics, there's a term, P', called ceteris paribus. Uh-huh. Ceteris paribus means what? Do you know? No. It means you analyze everything the same, changing only one thing. Uh. That is, you're saying, the only factor changing is SpaceX coming in. Yes. Ah, like before. So, everything is the same. Money must move from A to B. The stock market must move from Nvidia to SpaceX. Uh-huh. Isn't that too simple? That doesn't happen in the world. That's a thought that's too simple, isn't it? Ceteris paribus like this doesn't happen in the world. It's difficult. What is it? Ceteris paribus. Or, simply, if you've studied, if you remember, when we studied in school, there was something called regression. Do you know regression? It's taking data, running it, and getting an equation like y = ax + b. Does that work in the world today? It doesn't work. That doesn't exist in the world anymore. That's why I tell you, in reality, analysis, don't think about things. In slang, it's called "see pang tao." Oh, "see pang tao"? Square head. Yes, square head. You think in a box, the same way. Actually, people are like this. P', for the past many years, most analyses, over 90%, have been like this. Uh-huh. Yes, I feel that way too. It's like that, P'. No one is not "see pang tao." That's why I believe this: I don't know my belief, SpaceX is coming. The stock market, some stocks might fall first, partly. But in the end, they will rise again. I think the risk is not SpaceX. What? The risk is you dealing with Netanyahu not ending it, causing oil to go to $150. That's more risky. Okay. That's more risky. So, if you ask me, what is the most risky thing in the world today? Uh-huh. Will oil go to $150? Oh. Oil will go to $150 because the war won't end. Because there's a chance. Uh-huh. This is the risk. So, what will I be watching most closely right now? I'll be watching this. Uh-huh. But honestly, P', what I might be doing in a different style is that I listen to people talking about the Iran war. I'm tired of listening. Because it's the same. We'll have this weapon, that weapon, but in the end, what's most important is whether Trump is willing to end it. Willing. Can Netanyahu back down? And importantly, is Iran willing to end it? Ah, but how will it end? That's all, P'. Don't analyze too much, it's a headache. P'. This one shoots there, that one shoots here, bombards that airport. I listen and get a headache. So, I'd rather use my time to do something else, like look at SpaceX. It's easier. What I'm saying makes me feel immediately: nowadays, no one watches the news. P', it's not. And have you noticed something else? Why does the longer the war drags on, the more oil prices fall? Ah, because people are starting not to believe it anymore. Ah, here. Oil prices now, from over $100, are now $92. Starting to fall. Uh-huh. If it's not long, it will break the FM band. How much is the FM band? How much? 88.0 MHz. Who listens to the radio knows? 88.0 MHz is the FM band. Oh, really? Ah, you understand FM. Difficult. The meaning is, beyond this, there is nothing. If it breaks 88, there's no frequency. There's no frequency. Uh-huh. If it goes beyond 108, there's no frequency. This is a very difficult joke. This joke is difficult. This joke requires knowing the FM radio first. Listen, P'Moo, it's like, who listens to FM? Well, sometimes I bring these jokes because people of the new generation don't know. When they listen, they say, "What is this?" FM band. Uh-huh. This is in a museum. But that museum is in my head. That's all. Okay, so it means we'll wait and see if the FM band will exceed it. But I'm still confident that Donald Trump is a smart person and he will stop the war. But whether it can stop or not depends on Iran. [Music] Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe to the Dee Sua Tao channel to not miss interesting clips [Music] and watch new clips first.