Transcription
Last week on the buyers video, we had Jameson Williams, we had T. Higgins, we had Aaron Jones, and a number of other people. So, we're going to try to give you some more buys this week that help your fantasy team either win your championship or get back into it and make the playoffs cuz either we're trying to make the playoffs right now or we're trying to secure our league championship by making these good trades.
Let's start with Khil Shakir, who I think is flying a little bit under the radar right now. The Chief or the Bills looked dang good against the Chiefs, by the way. Their defense looked good, their offense looked good. They pretty much had their way. And you're looking at Khalil Shakir and the one thing that stands out to me with him especially since week four has been his consistent target volume. 59, 57, and eight targets in the last, um, five weeks from Khil Shakir. Obviously, he had that bye-week in week seven. He's only had two touchdowns in that span though. One in week four and one in week eight. And when you're looking at the games where he did have touchdowns, he's had 17 and 20 points. The games without them, 11, six, and 11 points. So I think we've got a pretty good idea of what Khil Shakir is. And in my opinion, he's a really high floor flex option because I think he's going to score you 10 points almost no matter what. But when he does score a touchdown, you're talking about dropping 20 in your flex spots. And yeah, he is a flex spot level guy because when you're looking at his price where people have him ranked, he is ranked as a flex option right now. In terms of the rankings over on Flock Fantasy, he's the wide receiver 37. He's in the same tier as Terry McLaren. Actually, he's behind Terry right now. Ricky Pieraw, Juan Delale Robinson, Travis Hunter, and Jameson Williams. I would give any of those guys for Khil Shakir. I really would. If Baki didn't have him, I would trade literally have two of those guys in that tier. I would trade either of them for Khlo Shakir. Um, so I do think he's fairly undervalued at the moment. Uh, just looking at some trades that have gone down for Khlo Shakir. And again, a lot of times, you know, just a general rule of thumb that I really kind of live by in fantasy football is buy wide receivers, buy running backs on good offenses. And that's what you're doing when you buy into Khlo Shakir. Um, somebody got, you know, Khlo Shakir straight up for Jakory Krosky Meritt. I think that's a fine trade. Terry McLaren straight up. I, I like that deal as well. That one actually happened today. Uh, somebody traded Jameson Williams for Khalil Shakir. I'm fine with that. Somebody traded R.J. Harvey for Khalil Shakir. I'm good with that as well. Somebody traded Harold Fannon for Khalil Shakir. Yeah, that's beautiful. Um, so lots of trades here that that I would be totally comfortable doing. Um, and I think his price is, you know, these are all trades that happened today in real leagues. I think these are all trades that I would pull the trigger on. And again, I, I like that he's on a good offense. I like that he's getting consistent target volume. I like that he's high floor. I like that he has touchdown upside. I like the way they use him. I like the way they use him in the screen game. There's just a lot to like about him as a guy that really, when you're talking about his price is going as a last level flex option in your fantasy football leagues. And so again, if you have one of those wide receivers in that tier, I would maybe be willing to overpay for Kirs. Again, not these guys on these video, this video in particular are not necessarily buy lows, they're buys at price just because I think we like their price in general. And Khalil Shakir, I think his consistency and his target volume and the fact that he's on a good offense stands out to me. I think if you can go send a trade for Kush Shakir and see what the price is in your league, it's probably worth it because if you're in a deeper league like a start eight or higher, I think Kul Shakir is a very good flex option for you.
>> I also think that uh Jaylen Warren is just going to continue to be a buy. And do I have Jaylen Warren on here as kind of a slight to everyone who trashed me for buying him? Maybe, potentially, kind of. Sort of. Yeah, he had 16 points off of two touchdowns this week and it was the least efficient that we've seen him in quite a while. Granted, it was against a pretty stout Colts run defense, which is what again, defensively they've been known for this season. Um, and he still had 16 points. When you look at the whole body of work this season for Jaylen Warren, I think it flies under the radar because he is Jaylen Warren. And again, we're guilty of this for kind of sliding him because of that, the fact that he's just, you know, always was assumed to have a cap ceiling, wasn't going to get a ridiculous amount of consistent bellcow work. Well, 11, 14, 18, 11, 16, 13, and 16 carries good for 131, 17, 138, 199, and 16 points with the best possible schedule you could ask for a running back over the next five weeks. The Chargers, Cincinnati, Chicago, Buffalo, Baltimore, and Miami have some of the bottom run defenses in the NFL to date and Jaylen Warren is heading into that stretch. So, from what you've seen again through the first part of the season, which was a mixed bag in terms of like going up against Indy, the Jets, New England, Seattle, Cleveland, Green Bay, Cincinnati, right? A lot more uh tough tougher matchups versus like really, really good matchups uh for for him that are super favorable. Like this guy, guys, I'm telling you, he he has a higher floor than a lot of people give him credit for. And right now with expert consensus, he's being ranked as like a mid to low-end running back, too. And I'm just telling you, if you can get any if you can give up any of Crossky, Merritt, Tracy, Monty, Dobbins, Chase Brown, ETN, or Swift, or Jaylen Warren, I'm easily doing it. And honestly, it's debatable if you prefer one of Quinchan Judkins or Jaylen Warren or Bree Hall. Uh Quinnon and Bree are in objectively worse situations. Bree has a higher has a higher ceiling on a week-to-week basis. Judkins debatably does as well, but their floor is much, much, much lower given their respective situations which are some of the worst in the NFL. So again, if you want a floor raiser and you want a really consistent, reliable RB2 option on your fantasy team, by all means, please go get Jaylen Warren, who on a points per game basis right now is right around what Derrick Henry is doing.
>> Actually, he's outscored Derrick Henry this year, but go figure.
>> You look at Jaylen Warren, everybody's like, "That's disgusting." And Derrick Henry's like, "A man, top 12 rest of the season for sure." You can be allergic to Jaylen Warren. Um, I, I am not allergic to fantasy points. I like fantasy points.
>> Yeah. Don't be don't be afraid to buy the players who's who aren't sexy because those are the players that typically win you leagues. Uh Devonte Adams is going to be our next guy here. Look, I think with Adams, there are two main factors here. Number one, he's 32 years old. Still probably the best red zone wide receiver in the NFL. I, I don't think there's been anybody better. There's no one better this year. I mean, Puka, he'll be a Hall of Famer because Puka, we'd maybe be close. I mean, Michael Pitman has been really good in the red zone this year. Um, but again, in terms of just skill set, in terms of the pairing with Matthew Stafford, nobody. And he was the wide receiver 13 coming into this week. He's going to be a wide receiver one after this week because he had seven receptions. He had two more touchdowns. He scored a touchdown in uh five of his eight games. And in, you know, two of those games, he actually had multiple touchdowns. He's had five touchdowns in the last two games. And I know that's not sustainable. And you might say, "Oh, nobody's selling Dvonte or you're buying a high. This isn't a buy low. This is not a buy low." In fact, this is a buy at price because let me just kind of walk you through my thought process right now because that Rams offense is good.
>> That Rams offense is really good. In fact, PFF has it as a top 10 offense in the NFL right now. I might have it as a top five actually.
>> So, it's a very good offense. And again, I tend to lean, hey, if you can buy um if you can buy players in good offenses, I think that's typically a good idea. The Rams are the number one rated offense on PFF, FYI. But when I'm looking at the guys ranked next to Devonte Adams, bear with me for a second. Expert average on the site right now. He is in the C tier as the wide receiver 12. He's already ranked as a wide receiver line. I'm again, I'm not saying he's a buy low. He's not a buy low. He's a buy at price because any of the guys in this tier, Chris, Z Flowers, Courtland Sutton, Lakoni, George Pickkins, Nico Collins, I would trade every single one of them for Dvonte Adams. It's why Dvont Adams is at the top of that tier. And I understand that in most leagues that's not happening. I do think in some leagues that those will happen, but I understand in most leagues that's not happening. I understand that. But I'm talking about the beats here now. And I'm talking about Garrett Wilson. I would probably rather have Dvonte Adams than Garrett Wilson.
>> Yeah.
>> Because Devonte Adams on a much better offense and has much higher touchdown upside every week. So his his scoring upside on a week basis in his situation is more stable. I'd rather have Devonte Adams than Garrett Wilson. So I'm a wide receiver 11. Let's keep moving up. Romans.
>> That one's close.
>> I mean, here's the thing. Here's the thing with Rome. He had a goose egg in the most productive game of the year.
>> Rome, Rome since he's he had a touchdown in each of his first four games for the buy. Since the buy, he has not scored a touchdown. Five, five, 18, and zero points.
>> Yeah.
>> Compare that, compare those to the games where Dvonte Adams doesn't have a touchdown as well. 13, 9, and seven points. So, you're actually seeing Dvonte Adams have a little bit of a higher floor. But in my opinion, the, you know, one of the main driving factors for going and buying Dvonte Adams is that I'm sorry. I simply do not trust Pukanua to stay healthy. I don't. And if Pukanakua at the end of the year for some reason in the playoffs is out, Devonte Adams winning Leagues. So, I think it's worth a shot. And I get he's already going to be ranked as a top 12 wide receiver. Roman Duna, I think it's I think it's very close. Amecha Ibuka, I, I mean, I think it's close. I think it's close. In fact, I think with Justin Jefferson, I think it's close. That's where I'd have him ranked with Ibuka, with Jefferson, um, and with Romo Dunce. I think those are the guys I'm ranking around. And I think there's, you can make a good argument to take Dvonte Adams over those guys. I mean, the target volume is there for Dvonte Adams, but again, I mean, 81, 13, 8, 6, 11, 9, 8, and seven targets. I mean, he's getting elite target volume. So, he's out targeting a Romo Dun this year, right? So, so I think there's a strong argument to be made that Dvonte Adams is still is still just a top nine wide receiver in fantasy football. And again, I'm this is a buy at price. Buy him at his current price after he had 26 points. Yeah, I'm fine with that because I believe in him that much rest of the season. And I do think there's more room for him to even have more upside if does go down. So, I, I don't know. I don't know what the price on Adam's going to be in your league. It's probably going to be expensive. It's worth trying. But in my opinion, if you can entertain any of those guys really, I mean, I'd say Roma Roma Doo and Garrett Wilson. If you can do a trade involving one of those guys with Devonte Adams, maybe you do a two for two, I think that might be good as well. Um, so, so but let's just honestly, just real quick, let's just look at Devonte Adams and the trades that have gone down for him. Quinton Johnson and Jordan Mason for Dvonte Adams and Trey Benson. Aaron Jones, AJ Brown, and Rashad White for Dvonte Adams. Rico Dattle and Jawan Jennings for Dvonte Adams. Dallas got it for Dvonte Adams. Who's doing that? The DK Metaf and Wandale for Dvonte Adams. There's Xavier Worthy and Kamani Vidal for Dvonte Adams. He's too cheap that like I'm he's not even in the range of prices. These these trades happen today. These are one QB 12 team starting full point PPR league completed trades using the trade finder on the site. All, all, every single one of these trades I would take, I would take the Dvonte side. These are real. So I, I think you can do it. I do think it's achievable and based on what I'm seeing his price is too low. I think Devonte Adams is a buy. Go trade for him if you can.
Look, the New England wide receiver room is really ugly. Honestly, every asset not named Drake May and that offense is ugly. Uh, you saw Henderson have like a 12-pointer this week with no room Stevenson and he was splitting the back field with their practice squad level running back because again, they don't want to give a full body of work to Trayvon Henderson when he gets an opportunity. It's maddening. This is not about Trayvon Henderson. This is not about the running backs. It's about Stfan Diggs, who in my opinion, is just the least inconsistent um wide receiver in that offense. And that doesn't mean that he's not going to be up and down. That doesn't mean that he's not going to be inconsistent. It just means that his rate of scoring like double digits or getting a respectable amount of target volume to raise his upside any given week is higher, much higher than like 50%. I mean, you've got 11 point week, 16 points, 24, 13, 10, and 12. Um, 13, 10, and 12 being the last few weeks. So, he's eclipsed double digits against Tennessee, Cleveland, and Atlanta. The next few weeks, the next four weeks, he has Tampa, the Jets, Cincinnati, and the Giants. Tampa, Cincinnati, and the New York Giants should be three very high-scoring games. We'll see with the Jets. They're very up and down um in terms of like what they allow production wise with the receivers. But for the next month, for the next four weeks alone, Stfan Diggs has one of the more friendly schedules for a flex worthy wide receiver any given week. And again, I'm not super big on Stfan Diggs this season as a whole. I'm not super big on any receiving asset in that offense as a whole. But in the near future, I'm pretty optimistic that Stfan Diggs is going to have a real, real nice outlook um for a guy that has been the only wide receiver in this offense that has maintained like five targets a game or more. And again, he's had a couple of like three and four target games, but for the most part, you've seen anywhere from like five to 10 targets a week. And that's pretty solid for a situation where Drake May is getting you the ball. And he does offer enough passing volume and upside for for a guy like Stefon Dix to be productive. You're going to have weeks where Demario Douglas um is, you know, going to drop 20 points like he did this week on six targets, four receptions for 100 yards and a in a touchdown. What is noteworthy um in this offense though is not just in terms of like the production that we've seen from Diggs so far halfway through the season, but also like who's on the field the most consistently. Like this is backed up by his snap count or by his snap share and he is one of the most consistent receiving assets on that offense in terms of routes run, snap share, usage, time on the field, etc. Matt Collins is up there this week with 43 snaps. Stfond's right there with 41 snaps. So they're essentially constantly on the field. Then there's Kyle Williams. Um Booty would have been on there more often if he had not gone down with the injury. But again, all the more reason for uh Stfan Diggs stock to go up because that's one less mouth to feed. And that touchdown upside that Booty offered is now no longer going to him. And Demario Douglas only had 16 snaps on the day. So Dear Douglas was the fluky one this week. I, I would I would expect Diggs to to be a little more consistent from here on out um until that bye-week and then we can reevaluate what his price is afterwards.
George KD has done pretty much nothing this year. And you know when you're looking at his production, he had 12 points on 28% snapshare. He had a touchdown early in that game against Seattle and then obviously pulled the hammer and they were like, "Yeah, he's out." Brock or Brock Party played that week. Brock Py played again in week four. George KD was out. He was out from weeks two to six. And then in week seven, he came back, didn't do anything. In week eight, he came back. He did have 14 points and then this week he only had 6.9 points. Nice. Uh against the New York Giants. Now, um I think a lot of what you know KD's deal is is he's not playing with Brock party. I think Brock Party throws the ball to George KD a lot. And I think M. Jones doesn't tend to throw the ball to George KD as much. And so I think as George KD gets more reps being back on the field and being healthy and as Brock Pury returns to this offense hopefully and it can hopefully stay healthy as well. Um I think that KD is going to project very well rest of season. Now there is another reason that I am buying George KD here. Week 11, they play the Arizona Cardinals. But more importantly, that week, I play George KD in the Flock League. In the last three weeks in the Flock League, Titans have scored 30 or more points against me. And I expect the trend to not stop anytime soon in this league cuz I'm cursed. And so, we know that George KD is going to have 30, 40 points in week 11. We know that for a fact. And so, why not buy him before he does that?
>> Boom.
>> We, we see trends that can be very clearly laid out as facts. My luck sucks and tight ends beat the pulp out of me. So there you go. That's a good reason to buy George KD as well. Regardless, we all know what KD's capable of. Obviously last year he was the tight end three and and with on the field, I mean, looking even from week 12 on last year, 626, 79, 8, and three targets.
>> So, and and didn't really score a touchdown. Uh, last touchdown scored last year was in week 12. But still, 21, 10, 18, 19, and four points were his last uh five games there. So I think KD's going to be training up rest of the season. And I also think that um I, I also think that when Party comes back, he's going to tend to target KD a lot more.
Look, before we say this guy's name, don't come at us for for coming up with ugly um flex options in this video. Okay, it's it's week nine. It's getting really, really tough because everybody's starting to know like, okay, you're you're consistent players, uh, your consistent assets every single week that you got to start. It's getting easier and easier to know who to start every single week. Uh, one guy that I do think has flown under the radar a little bit, and I will back this up by what his uh, current ranking is on the site according to expert consensus is Romeo Dobs. Uh, Romeo Dobs over the last five weeks has been on a low-key tear. And again, it's it's been, you know, a tear relative to like what you've expected from him. So, it hasn't been anything insane, but he had that 29 pointer against Dallas in week four. Then after the buy, he's had 10, 13, 9, and 16 points. What I care about with Romeo Dods is the target volume of 8, 9, 8, 6, and 10 targets. Um, and then you've got an outlook for Green Bay. Now that's Philly, the Giants, Minnesota, Detroit, Chicago, Denver, Chicago, Baltimore, and then Minnesota for the rest of the year. So, a mixed bag there. When someone shows you who they are in terms of target volume over a decent sample size, I think you should believe them. And I, I think that applies to every other wide receiver in this offense. I think we need to stop holding out hope that Matthew Golden this season is going to command an elite amount of target volume. I think we got to stop holding out hope that Christian Watson is just going to be what we thought he could be after that crazy um four-week run with Aaron Rodgers back in the day, right? And coming off the ACL, he's been fine. He's been a nice deep threat. But we know exactly what Watson is, and that is a deep threat, and that's it. There's no other receiving asset in this offense that is capable at this point in time due to injury or just skill set or ability um to to command the amount of target volume that Dobs is right now in this offense. Right now, Dobs seems to be the number one option and I'm going to follow that target volume. Again, he's the most consistently on the field. Um, he's he's not as banged up like guys like Christian Watson, Jaden Reed, Dante Von Wix, etc. seem to be all year. And Golden is just he's he's an up-and-comer, but we don't really know when that up-and-coming is going to happen. Is it gonna happen this season? Uh, it hasn't really showed up this year. Uh, he's had, I mean, his peak has been six and five targets against Dallas and Cincinnati, two of the worst defenses in the NFL. And beyond that, he hasn't eclipsed like four targets. So, I understand it's not sexy, but again, looking at expert consensus, like Romeo Dobs right now is ranked back-to-back with Jacobe Myers, Jawan Jennings, Troy Franklin, Chim DK, um, Keon Coleman, Trey Tucker, Calvin Ridley. Uh, Matthew Golden is ranked ahead of Romeo Dobs right now. There are some guys in the tier above Romeo Dobs that that are injured right now, won't even be playing. Look, I like Stfan Diggs. I don't like Stfane Diggs that much where I prefer him two tiers above where Romeo Dobs is being priced at the moment. Uh, Terry McLaren and Ricky Pearl are ranked a tier above Romeo Dobs. Who knows when they're going to be back healthy. Like, literally, who knows? They always seem to be injured. Uh, Terry's been banged up, reagravated that quad. Ricky Pearl has had an injury history dating back all the way to college. Like, take the production, take the flex option. I mean, you, you just had a week you just had a week where I had to flex Alec Pierce, which I did not feel good about. And honestly, I got lucky because of that game strip game script. Avery just had to flex Kendrick Bourne this week. Uh, I, I mean, I bet you a million bucks he would have felt a lot better flexing Romeo Dobs. Like I tried to trade for him before the game.
>> He tried to trade for him before the game. Again, this is the this is the point in time of the season where you're start have to having to really think about these types of flex options because by weeks are killing you and injuries are, I mean, they seem to be worse than they've ever been, really. So Dobs is more relevant than he would be in most years in in in most normal seasons. Uh, so again, if you can get any of those guys that I mentioned and just move them straight up for DOBS, throw in some some FAB because people value FAB still at this point. Or if you can get them off of waivers as a flex option, like I would go ahead and do that.
All right, I've actually got three buys for you here at the end just to wrap us up. I'm going to start with the uh the two, these are wrapped together. I think the prices of the Bears running backs are going to be up in the air in the next week and a half. And the reason I think that is because, no, first of all, this is a team that's already had their buy. So this is a good and it's an offense that's scoring a lot of points right now. So, I think it is actually a decent offense to buy into at the moment. I think one of two things is going to happen in your league. And I don't know, you can believe in whichever one you want, but either a people are going to say, "Okay, um, you know, Swifty is dead and so I'm done with him. It's going to be Manonga from here on out." And then you can buy low on Swift. Or the Manungai owner is looking at Manungai as a one-week went rental and you can actually go buy Manongi. Whichever one you believe in, I would go buy. That's what I'm going to say. For me, it's Kyle Manungai. I have Kyle Manung on the Flockley, but like when you're looking at Manungai's usage before the injury with Swift, he was already in a 50/50 snap share split with DeAndre Swift. He had started the season getting about 20 to 30% snaps and they worked him up to 50% before the injury. You saw in a game against New Orleans a couple weeks ago, he actually had 17 points because he had 13 carries for 81 yards and a touchdown. That's with a healthy Swift. But without Swift, and I know he was playing the uh Cincinnati Bugles, and I get that they're absolutely cheek, terrible, awful. They literally give up. Anybody can run on them, but he did have 26 carries for 176 yards. He averaged seven 6.7 yards per carry here. Um, I, I think I think personally I think Communai is a better runner than DeAndre Swift is. I think DeAndre Swift's probably better in the passing game than Kanong guy is. It could limit his, I think it could limit his, you know, ceiling a little bit, but I do think his floor might end up being a little bit higher when it's all said and done. When Swifty does come back, I do expect Manai to continue to get some carries in this offense. I think they really like him, and I also think he looks pretty good. Like, I, I think just, I mean, it's, you know, regardless of the Bengals defense, I don't necessarily think a lot of what I saw from a young guy this week was just because the Bengals have a terrible defense. Now, again, if you believe in Swift and the Swift owner and your league's giving up, then maybe you buy low on Swift. I don't know. But um, I think one of them is going to end up being a pretty good value by the end of the year. Um, my guess is going to be Manungai cuz I think Manungai could, I think Manungai could actually take Swift's job there. That's just my opinion. Um, but the other one that actually isn't sexy and doesn't make any sense, but it makes sense when I explain like this is Alvin Kamara. I almost bought Alvin Kamar before this week and I'm glad I didn't because he had 0.7 points this week. Six, six carries for 14 yards. One week ever after having 16, six carries for 21 yards. Uh, two and three targets the last two weeks. I mean, he's he's just fantasy irrelevant bad. And obviously, they had Tyler Shuck in there. But here's the thing. When you're looking at who New Orleans has played so far this year, they've played San Francisco, they play played Seattle, they've played Buffalo, they've played New England, they've played Chicago, they've played Tampa, then they've played the Rams. Okay, let's look at the schedule for the rest of the year. They have Carolina, they have a buy. They have Atlanta, Miami, Tampa Bay again, Carolina again, the Jets, Tennessee, and Atlanta. They're going to be able to run the ball a lot more down the stretch here than they have been, but this schedule gets significantly easier. Significantly easier. That's why I think Kamara should be considered a buy low option. Now, I'm not saying to go send the farm for him, but I just think after this week, I think he's going to be dirt cheap. I think you're going to be able to get him for nothing. I almost gave up way too much for him last week and I'm really glad I didn't. But I think you should be able to get him for almost nothing now and I would go buy because I do think there's a decent chance at the end of the year they run the ball more, that he gets some more receiving work, etc. and he can actually turn it on. And the thing is, if Alvin Kamara sucks, I'm not going to be surprised about that. So, you know, last week the guy we put in the buy video was Jameson Williams and in the comments people are like, "Jameson Williams, are you serious?" J had 18 points this week, right?
>> Yep.
>> On six targets.
>> Uh-huh.
>> Okay.
>> Six targets. Uh, four receptions, 66 yards, and a tub, 16.6 points.
The ugly buys, the ones where everybody's like, "Yeah, this is not a good buy," usually are the ones that pan out because those guys are so frowned upon at the moment that they are dirt cheap. Kamar is going to be dirt cheap after this week. If you can't get him dirt cheap, do not buy him cuz he's not very good.
But if you can get him really cheap, I think it's worth the upside shot. You have to get him cheap enough. And where where this where this price range is in your head, you have to decide for yourself. You have to get him cheap enough to where if he does what he's been doing for the rest of the year, it doesn't hurt you. You're not giving up a starter for Kamar in my opinion. You can't do it. Kamar is not a starting caliber running back right now in fantasy football. So, you need to give up swap a bench player for Kamara because Kamar is a bench player. That way, if Kamar does get more volume and does end up scoring more fantasy points by the end of the year, then you have him on your bench and you could potentially plug and play for by weeks or you can plug and play at the end of the year when in the playoffs is playing Carolina in week 15
>> and the Jets in week 16 and 10, I mean, Tennessee like.
>> That's why you buy them. So, I know it's, I know it's ugly, but again, the ugly buys are the ones that tend to work. So, make sure you drop a like for us. Make sure you're subscribed as well. We're trying to hit 40,000 subscribers. You can help us get there. We'll have a video for you tomorrow. Buy, sell, hold, uh, with some advice to try to save your fantasy football team. So, make sure you uh keep an eye out for that and have those noties on. We'll see you tomorrow. Peace out.