Transcription
Is fear driving this metals rally, or is it greed? Hi everyone, welcome to the Market House. I'm Maggie Lake, and today I'm talking markets with Tony Greer, founder of GG Macro. Hey Tony, how you doing?
>> Maggie, how are you doing today?
>> I'm doing good. I have a feeling probably a little of both in that answer, but, um, I'm super excited. Listen, talk about timing. I'm watching all these parabolic moves in the market, and I'm so excited to have you on today. I think a lot of people have been texting and, um, posting on X and in the chat already saying, "I can't wait to hear from you," because I know you have a lot of experience watching these kinds of moves. But I got to say, I'm also so excited that we're going to be in Nashville together this month because it, I don't know, I've been talking to a lot of people, and it feels like we're at a really important inflection point, and I can't wait to hear what Grant Williams and Brent Johnson and Duneberg and everyone has to say about this. So, like, luck or not, great timing on that.
>> Yeah. Yeah. The inflection point, I, I get that from a lot of my clients, you know, like everybody wants to know what direction, you know, what's, what's the direction we're going in this year? You know, everybody feels the regime change.
>> And I feel like not everybody has the tools to analyze it, perhaps, or the history with markets to be able to analyze it, perhaps, or something like that. Yeah.
>> And so that's where we come in handy, doing this job for the last 10 years, you know what I mean? And with the experience that we had before that, trading the metals, stocks, metals, >> commodities, etc., etc.
>> Yeah.
>> So, >> yeah.
>> Yeah. So, there's a lot going on there. Um, >> so talk to me a little bit about what you're, and I think we're gonna, we're gonna flip back and forth to this, because I think this is like when experience really matters, and there's a lot that makes me nervous, but I know there's a lot of opportunity here, too. So, we'll, we'll try to thread that throughout. But, uh, we got to start with silver and the metals, because I mean, every time I blink and I look, silver's up another 8% today, gold at new highs. It's been a long time since we've seen these kind of price movements. Um, how are you feeling about what's happening?
>> Well, you know, always trying to figure out what's driving it, right? And there's, there's a lot of factors in motion. First of all, it's a raging bull market. We can just stop there and hang up the conversation, right? Because those go on for all different kinds of reasons. I think what we've got going on that's forcing silver to new highs is Mercantile Exchange raises margins again, right? Um, it's a flat percentage now of your position. So, they kind of shaved it a little bit, and that's going to cause shorts to have to cover because they don't want to put up more collateral. So, you've got a little bit of that going on. You've got people looking across the Atlantic to Iran, right? That it looks like there's a combusting situation going on over there. You know, it's combusting because the media doesn't dare say a word about it, right? You have to go, you have the bifurcation of the story that the media is trying to get everybody to believe, and then what you're learning through the news on your phone, which is probably a lot closer to the truth, right? We're just in that period of of history. So, with that kind of stuff going on, you know, it doesn't shock me to look at, you know, you know, I've always been obsessed with the year-to-date leaderboard, right? And I always, my, my, I guess my superpower, or what I try to accomplish, is to have my clients in all the winning sectors at the end of the year. And it takes a while to get that sorted out, >> but I feel like we had a leg up this year coming into the start of the year with the right stuff on, right? We, we managed to get into industrial miners, gold miners, you know, we're, we've been in precious metals for a while, but being in those for the start of the year has been rewarding. And it's one of those things that you have to number one, perceive the signal. Number two, not get excited that you're right, because it can still all go wrong tomorrow. But number three, if you're getting the signals that are telling you that you're right, you better take the chances to step on the gas at some point during that trade >> because it doesn't matter how good of a trader you really are. It's how much money you make when you're right.
>> So, every trader, >> super important. So, one thing we hear all the time is that "I got out too early." Um, but, you know, you also don't want to be trapped when, when, if it feels like this is on, you know, thin air. So, it sounds like you're, you're letting these positions run that you think there's more upside, even though these gains are sort of exponential that we're seeing. Do we pull back at all here?
>> Yeah. You know, I was thinking that I was thinking in the mid-50s in silver that that sentiment was getting absurd, right? All the silver bulls, uh, to their detriment, they have to cheer every new handle like they're five years old. I don't care which one it is. You can name any one of them out there. They're all guilty of it, right?
>> It tends to throw a, a crooked sentiment signal, right? Maybe a sentiment signal that where you think it's all overheated sentiment, but it's really not. And the reality is that the mechanics of this market are, silver is on its way to a new destination, you know, and whether I like that or not, it doesn't matter. That's what the, the tape is saying, right? It's constantly higher auctions, new highs, new high prices. It's trending to a new level that it hasn't found yet. So, luckily, we're, you know, while we haven't been one of those chest-beating silver bulls, you know what I mean? We're just kind of watching the developments. The rally is getting steadier, and it's doing things that typical bull markets do. What do typical bull markets do? They form a double top and then they blast through it a week later. They have an outside reversal day and then they make a new high the week later. You know what I mean? They just throw topping signals, right? They just buck them right off their back fast. So, when you see silver start doing that, you have to adjust, and that's when you respect it and say, "Yeah, this thing's going to another zip code, and we haven't gotten there yet. We're in the car driving there. We've got the tunes cranking, but we have not gotten to the place where we're going to pull over and take a rest yet."
>> That's how I'm looking at it, Maggie. Gold is doing the same thing. You know, gold is, you know, you can call it whatever you want. You know, call it puts on irresponsible government behavior. You can call it puts on irresponsible central banking. You can call it, you know, uh, safety insurance, you know, a flight to safety insurance kind of thing where you have Iran bubbling, and you see gold go right to the highs. Like, none of that should shock anybody. So, you know, with, with, with that going on, I just sit here and say, we are in a bull market that is going to work this year, just like it worked last year. That, that's really what I think. You know, we're getting a confirmation. Look at, look at the leaderboard, like, like I'm saying, like this is why I don't take my eye off of this thing from day one, because this is the most exciting race in all the land to me. You know, we've got this year, we've got double, first of all, silver's up 30%. It's January 14th. I mean, it just, just let that sink in for a second. Since January 14th.
>> We're two weeks into the year. Silver's up 30%. Right? So, it's going to make another statement this year, like up 10 and something or whatever. We don't know what. But look at the rest of the leaderboard. We've got at the top, uranium miners, industrial miners, oil services, all of a sudden elbowing their way into the leadership pack among gold miners and aerospace and defense, right? Which has just taken off and gone since we plucked Maduro out of Caracas in a sweat suit.
>> So, all of this stuff, you know, this is just like signal and not noise to me. When you're kind of expecting this to happen, and you turn the calendar into the year, and you know there's going to be beginning of the year allocation, and there's still a chance that that's what we're seeing, and then we see a pullback, but I'm still in the mode that these bull markets are healthy, and the dip is going to be bought, >> that kind of thing. So,
>> So, does it feel like it's, uh, widening out to the rest of the commodity space?
>> Yeah. Well, you know, so that's the thing is that crude oil, all of a sudden, in six days, has gone from its 25-day moving average through that, through the 50-day, through the 100-day, and we're testing the 200-day. You got that's sit up in your chair behavior for any oil trader in the world, right? When you look in the rearview mirror in oil, we just had the most bearish set of headlines that we could have had.
>> Venezuelan oil, it's ours now, and we're selling it into the market. It's like, "Oh my God, this is Trump getting gas to a buck a gallon or whatever he's trying to do." Whatever he's trying to do, this is it, right? Telling everybody we've got Venezuelan oil that's going to be sold onto the market. Oil does these little dip and dunks to the lows, and then turns around and and rallies. So, when you've got that negative headline set that doesn't cause a breakdown into this week, where all of a sudden oil is kind of scooting right to moving average resistance levels, that's when you're saying to yourself, "Maybe now is oil's turn in the baton race. Maybe oil just got the baton in the commodity bull market," >> right? I've been talking about it. If you, you know, every, you got to remember that silver, when gold was breaking out to new highs, silver was $35 an ounce. Nobody cared for, for quite a while, right? And we were looking at it going, "Look at this. Gold has gone berserk, and nobody gives a flying about silver at $35 an ounce." Well, I'm not going to buy it either because nobody cares. Next thing you know, it's a triple, >> right? So, things happen really fast. But what I'm obsessed with, Maggie, also at the bottom of the leaderboard, if you're a tech investor, you got to be quaking in your boots right now. The bottom of the leaderboard is software, cloud storage, internet, cyber security, and now financials with Trump capping interest rates, all negative year-to-date.
>> So, you start to see like, is this the rotation where everybody in the world says, "I think we have too much tech," >> right? We've been buying tech for five years, and it never has got, it hasn't dipped once. Maybe this is where people want to sell some tech to buy some more platinum, palladium, or they want to sell some tech to get in on this copper rally at all-time highs and say, "What happens if we have this huge copper shortage?" Has anybody thought of that? Right. And now all of a sudden, while it wasn't on anybody's mind at, at, at LME copper 9K, at LME 13K, everybody's like, "Wow, we might have a problem on our hands."
>> Yeah.
>> You know, so there's a lot to think about. There's a lot of, uh, of, you know, money and hot air going into and around this, this market, but it's a bull market that's going to be with us. That's, that I have confidence in, right? We're going to ride the volatility, and we're going to stay bullish, and we're going to buy the dips, and we're going to make the money.
>> Uh, hey everybody in the chat on Substack and YouTube, great to see you. Um, we have folks who are, we did a poll, and half and half, did you buy silver? So, half have exposure to silver, half don't. If you don't, Tony, is it too late?
>> Never too late, Maggie. Never, never, never, never, never too late. Bull markets. You know, I, I, I'll always preach it to anybody that listens. You know, a trader's two most ferocious tools are patience and time. And in a bull market, things are happening so fast that it just makes you feel like you missed it. And the reality is, is just that price is outperforming expectations. So, nobody can really get a handle on what's going on.
>> Mhm.
>> What's going to happen is, like anything else, silver is going to get ahead, ahead of itself, and it's going to come plunging back to some kind of level of support, and everybody's going to be throwing in the towel on it. That's when you're going to get a chance to buy silver. And I don't know, unfortunately, if it's the first quarter, second quarter, or fourth quarter of '26. And if it's the fourth quarter, as a trader, you got to say, "Great, patience and time was on my side. The fourth quarter is when I have dry powder for the silver trade for, and here comes silver hurling to the bid that I'm putting out there." Right?
>> We're gonna get that. It's just not a question of it. So, we're going to be chasing it for a little while. We're going to be behind on performance if we're not in it. And when silver presents itself, and you know there's an exit moment for somebody, and it dips to the bottom of the channel, which is now down at like $60, $70, that's when you're going to get your chance. Then you're going to have to buy it and then manage the risk.
>> Yeah. Uh, I think that's great advice. And listen, um, you know, if there's distress somewhere, people sell their winners, too, right? And so, you know, maybe that, that's the, the, the trigger for >> we just saw the ultimate winner sale in October of last year when that Bitcoin whale saw Bitcoin try to go through 125K six times and fail.
>> Right? That, there's a trader on the other end of that decision. I don't, I don't care why he bought Bitcoin, but he's looking at that chart going, "This top is not going to be overcome anytime soon, and I don't want all however many billion dollars worth of Bitcoin I have. So, let's diversify, right? $9 billion is going into something."
>> Maybe silver. Who knows?
>> Oh, I'm sure he bought silver with it. Are you kidding me? That, that trader knows what he's doing. [laughter]
>> Um, which is funny to think about. Um, uh, Doug saying, "Tony, uranium is also making a move. Are you bullish the metal? Will it hit an all-time high?"
>> I can't, you know, I, I, I've got all this, the, there's bullish tailwinds in the commodity space right now. If you want to be in the performing assets, you got to figure out how to get into Bitcoin. I, excuse me, into the commodity space. And I'm saying, I'm thinking BCOM, and I'm saying Bloomberg, uh, Bitcoin. I'm sorry. But Maggie, that's the big chart that we've been looking at that had a four-year cup and handle base, and we're now breaking out of the flat top. So, within the, the realm of everybody chasing down commodity exposure from first B, like nobody had it on, and now people, you can see are finally putting commodity exposure on. Is this the big allocation when mutual funds go from 50 basis points worth of metals exposure to 1%? I don't know. It might be the very beginning of it, but it's definitely not the end of that. So, people are starting to get into these sectors. Yeah, you can stay bullish uranium. Anything that's got, you know, a deficit out on the horizon in four or five years, like uranium has, it's easy to stay bullish. It's also easy to mistime the trade.
>> Yeah.
>> You know, and, and get sucked into the story at the highs and have it come crashing down on you. That seems to be what's, that, that's a feature, not a bug, of the uranium mining market. So, yeah, you got to be careful, but I'm bullish as well. You know, I don't, I, there's not going to be a commodity that's going to get left out if this whole rotation happens. Just like there's not going to be a sector of tech that's not going to get sold. There's not going to be a vertical in commodities that's not going to get bought. I won't be shocked when they start buying grains. You know what I mean? And that'll, that'll be, that'll be nowhere at the end of the cycle because grains have been in a downtrend for a couple of years now.
>> We had a question about grains. So, great that you brought that up. Um, is this a, with uranium, is it a time frame issue? Because, you know, we know the dynamics. Again, we'll talk to Duneberg more about this, uh, down in Nashville, but if you have a, you're a trader, so you're really thinking about this, this pattern that you've seen, but if you're a long-term investor, um, and you're looking at the larger energy story, is, is that, is that where patience and a longer time horizon perhaps helps when it comes to uranium?
>> Well, that's the one that's kept you in it, right? If you can weather the misposition shakeouts on the downside, is, you know, is actually, you know, the answer there, Maggie. There's nothing fancy. It's the people that have been right about uranium for a long time. And like I've always said, this is not my trade. Right? When uranium was down in a hole, what is it, three, four years ago, I had 20 guys DMing me telling me about uranium, and I'm looking at it, I'm like, "This, I'm staring at it, and nothing is moving." And you're like, "Okay, I hear you, and I hope it works, but it doesn't fit my perspective for things to buy." So, when it does, I'll call you for help, you know? And God bless them all for being right. Right. Like, they, they deserve the win on this trade. And it just seems like to me that we're going to get continued tailwinds out of the administration. And I think that'll be helpful. You know, they just committed like $2.5 billion dollars over the next 10 years. And I just got a feeling that there's more where that came from, right? There's, we're going to get to that stage where there's more uranium partnerships with utilities and things like that. Then the complex, the whole energy landscape is going to change in the US. So, we got to kind of keep our eyes peeled and see what the winners are going to be. Uranium is certainly teed up to be in that portfolio.
>> Yeah. Um, it's great we're talking about this. Just a heads up for all of you that are interested in this. Um, the, for the record, our latest "For the Record" is coming out on Thursday, and it's with Jed Dorschimer, who leads the energy group at William Blair. Um, and really interesting, um, conversation about really energy being the center of the economic universe, and what the investing implications are for that. Again, maybe less of a trader perspective, more in of an investment, um, thesis. So, if you're interested in that, um, check it out. Um, it was a really great conversation. Tony, we're getting a lot of questions about Nat gas because as we're talking about commodities and energy, it's like, talk about the the outlier and the laggard.
>> Yeah. You know, I put it this way. Natural gas is not something that you want to mess with, Maggie. I mean, that thing, it changed the face of the whole commodity complex in November when it ran from four to 550, and then it just turned around and dumped to $3.
>> Right? So, this is, I look at that thing and I'm like, "I'm scared." Right? I'm, I'm, that thing is not a potential trading vehicle. That thing is, you know what I think that is now? That's a, I hope it stays dirt cheap because it's bullish industrials, and I got enough of those on the pad to figure out how to make money here.
>> You know what I mean? Like, I'm not going to sit here and try to mastermind natural gas. I'm not going to say that it's a buy on the dip. The thing just came down from $5 through 350 to $3. It looks like it's going to zero, right? I don't know what else, I don't know what else to tell you. So, I don't have a handle on that, and I can't predict what's going to happen there at this point. I'm just rooting for it to be a continued cheap input to the base load power energy complex here in the US. And the, the cheaper that goes, the more they'll use that for AI data centers.
>> Yeah, that's a, that's a great, that's a great way to think about it. If you can't figure out the answer, and I know why everyone's asking, and again, I talked about this with Jed because >> and, and right, and, and Duneberg has said this for a long time. It is the natural sort of bridge to get us to energy, and we're in a resource-scarce environment. The whole macro thing lines up, but that has just not, not jumped on. And so, great way to think about it as like, in the interim, let me think about what I can do with the fact that it's >> think about what what happened to you if, if you decided to pile into natural gas, you know what I mean? Like, you had a lot of risk on your hands, and then it really wasn't a pleasant trip to get out. You know what I mean? Like, you, you got pretty much wiped out unless you traded it really, really smartly. And that's why when I look at that chart that says, "Oh, I would have got in here and expected a rally," and then it got mashed in my face. Man, [snorts] that could have been an expensive one, and I'm glad I missed that boat.
>> Yeah. Yeah. And this is the, you know, this is the thing about commodities, right? They can have, as parabolic as they are on the way up, that the way down can be brutal. Uh >> yeah, that's it, man. And, and who knows where we are in that cycle with, you know, gold, silver, platinum, all of it. But it still does, to me, I mean, with the way the auctions are going consecutively higher in, in these metals, it feels like this is real money being put to work, you know, like part of it is obviously there's a little bit of futures short covering with that margin raise, but I don't think that that tells the whole story. You know what I mean? Shorts get out eventually. They, they don't ride things forever. And so, you can't tell me that like there's still shorts from $5 in silver. I, I just won't believe that. So,
>> We'll see what happens. We'll see what happens, man. But at least, at least we've got a great story to tell, right? This year. And that, like the rotation already is commodities up and gone. You know, like oil just woke up, oil services are in the mix. There's an interesting tell to me where home builders and home construction are all of a sudden quietly up 10%.
>> And Yeah, exactly. And that's with rates really not going much lower. So, I'm just wondering if that's kind of telegraphing something else that Trump is going to do, you know? And I think that that's your, that's going to be a lot of your risk if you're a bearish trader trading things from the short side, is that, you know, just recently Trump came out and pulled about five cards on the table for Main Street.
>> You know, he, he capped, he capped credit card rates. Uh, Robert Kennedy Jr. turned over the food pyramid. We're down to 11 mandatory vaccines from 72. Trump said the consumer is not going to have to pay for the rise in energy prices due to the AI power generation, right? Like he's coming to bat for Main Street all out of the blue, and this, the commodities and sectors are responding accordingly. And so, it's like one of those things, if you're short, and Trump is out going on a run, I, you better have a plan.
>> Yeah. It's so interesting because I think you just brought up one of the real risks in this environment is that, um, it's, it's a very different political landscape. It's a very interventionist administration, and then there's the headline, and then what happens, and what does it really mean? Like, that, that's a big triangle, and sometimes it's not so obvious at the beginning. You know, we're still waiting, by the way, for those of you who might not be in the US, we're still waiting for the decision, the Supreme Court decision on tariffs. A lot of people surprised it didn't come again today, but we're watching for that. So, there is a lot of headline risk in this environment.
>> I have an angle on that, Maggie.
>> What's that?
>> If you want to hear. So, we don't have the decision on the Supreme Court versus Trump yet, right?
>> What we do have is a Trump tweet basically daring them to overturn the tariffs, right? Saying this is going to be a total mess if they turn up, if they do.
>> Oh, I got a better one. If I wind up, forget about it. But my point is, Poly Market has had the Supreme Court at like above 65, 70% to turn down the tariffs >> for the last several weeks.
>> Everybody knows that. The market knows that. My, my view is just that if this was going to be something that could binarily completely overturn all of Trump's tariffs, I think the S&P would be 6,700 offered.
>> And it's 6960 bid on the close. It rallied 40 handles into the bell because it seems like everybody, you know, not everybody, there's a short contingent out there thinking that this is going to knock Trump, set him back on his heels. It's going to knock the market over. Everything that he just did is going to come undone. And with the, with the existence of Poly Market today, and the stock market being a future forward-looking market, I think that, I think it's priced, I think some kind of amendable solution is kind of priced in, and not, not a disaster.
>> There's been time to adjust, and we know they'll just go country by country. So, it's like, unclear that it's going to be some big sort of like, I, I, I agree with that. Um,
>> There's no tsunami coming. I don't think the S&P is down 400. Like, no way. Not to say that you, you may not see some knee-jerk reaction, but I think a lot of that has already been priced in.
>> Good question coming from Baris, um, which is, if you take profits in metals, where would you invest into? And I'm just going to point out that we other, we have this other dynamic we haven't talked about, which is that, um, we had the NASDAQ getting hit again today, but you had the Russell up, small caps up. I don't know if that's a trend. Um, but I know it's something people are wondering if you get small caps finally participating, and if you do, is that a sign that you're close to a blow-off top?
>> So, without being too much of a wise guy, if I take profits in metals, I'm looking to reinvest them in metals. I'm, I'm not, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm literally looking to say, like, I've, I've sold a tiny portion of my XME into this rally because it's blasting away from the 200-day moving average, and I was upsized for a portion of this trade, right? I mean, I wrote about it for months. I think at turn of the year, we're going to see this, and we got this. So, I was upsized for that, and so now into this XME rally, I can get back to regular size, right? My point is, I guess, with the money that comes out of here, I'm looking to get back into XME with that money. If XME doesn't give me the chance, I'm going to get that money into GDX. And if GDX doesn't give me a chance, I'm put it into OIH because it looks cute right now, and it looks like it's going to do something. So, like, if you want to make me rotate into another sector, I'd say oil looks like it might be a better bet. XLE just woke up, and XLE is another, you know, exploration production ETF. That's another ETF that has been consolidating for half a decade. And when that mother scratcher breaks out, it's going to rally for half a decade. And we're right to the top of the range here with oil at 62.
>> So, oil goes to 75, this thing is gone. And it breaks out of a range that it's been in since, good grief.
>> Let me, let me call it up here. It breaks out of a range that it's been in since, call it 2021.
>> Okay. So, interesting question from Dave. Why oil when all the talk is about a supply glut?
>> Because markets go that way. You know what happens to supply gluts? People that want risk on the pad buy the glut >> from the people that are saying, "Hey, we got all this oil over here." And somebody makes a decision and says, "I'm not smart enough to know how, >> but just say the economy does a lot better than we thought, and there's not as much oil sitting around in a month, then where's the price if I want to buy all the oil?"
>> Yeah.
>> It's not here. So, I got to buy it right here if I want to buy it. Right. If this is the value play right here, and it seems like you got a pretty good stop loss if you're buying a speculative position. You can risk the recent low.
>> Yeah. And, and, and Dave, some people, um, including Dale last week, he'll talk about it again on Friday, pointing out that there's a very low probability of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz when you have what's going on in Iran, and that they seem, that seems like maybe a risk worth taking. So, if you get a disruption, it doesn't take much to call into question, at least short-term, that supply glut, because it's not the supply, it's the transit, like the supply chain that is, is more fragile, I think, than the supply. So, that may, um, be a little bit of an explanation from a fundamental point of view what's going on. But as Tony said, a lot of this is also based on price. Um, WTI, higher lows. It's been marching to sort of making higher lows. And so, for a lot of people, that's a trigger.
>> Um, absolutely, Maggie.
>> Uh, Tony, the VIX looked like it perked up a little today. I mean, still very historically low, but, um, 10% at one point this morning. You know, the VIX is respecting the VIX is respecting that there is going to be volatility with the Supreme Court decision. I think that's totally fair. You know, I mean, [sighs] with the headlines that we've been through, there's a lot of world-changing stuff. Like, we're in the middle of a regime change administration. He just threw five curveballs at the market, right? All of a sudden, you know, he reschedules cannabis, it goes up and straight down. He says he's capping credit card rates. Financials get repriced. Banks and things like that get repriced lower. He makes another headline, this is going higher, you know? So, volatility is like, yeah, man, you know, being long options, you can probably realize the volatility if you're long a put, long a call, whatever it is, man, things are firing all over the place. So, that translates to me, like whenever I see like there's literally a scatter rotation, like minor rotation, that it's been taking me like two or three days to figure out, like, what is this going on here? Is that going to work? Where is that leave financials? Are they still in a bull market? And
>> Now, what about financials, Tony? Because bank earnings, I, I don't want to wrap before we talk. Bank earnings season started. Banks first out of the gate. The, the news seemed pretty good, but the shares are down.
>> Yeah. You know, this is, this is, we know, I think that getting long financials. I, I, I saw a great headline that it's going to be really bullish for like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan once the all their AI gets applied to to investment banking and their trading policies and this and that, and they may have a slightly smaller headcount and a smaller footprint over the next few years as AI creeps into their platforms, but they are going to be supremely profitable after that. And you're like, "Wow, that is a, that's a real idea, man." Like, I remember what it was like working at Goldman Sachs and knowing that you were running ahead of the pack the whole time. Now, give them this AI tool with all the information that they have. I mean, that, that's a powerful thing, and I think it explains why Goldman was jumping out of the gym for the last couple of months. So, they ran into a bearish headline for the financial sector. Is Goldman Sachs going to get crushed if we cap interest rates? No. But the credit card banks are going to get crushed, and that's going to be, you know, a whole reset of the sector. So, I think that's what's going on. I don't think any of this derails the bull market.
>> You know what I mean? Like, if you were sitting there waiting to buy financials, now, now's your chance.
>> You know what I mean? Just like the same way if you're sitting there buying silver and it gets repriced into the bottom of the channel that it's surfing higher.
>> Stick the bid in, manage the risks, darling. That's what the market's there for.
>> Yeah. And maybe, maybe be a little, as we've been talking about in this environment, maybe be a little selective and nuanced, right? You make a great point about investment banks. They're not really exposed to some of the headlines coming around government intervention when it comes to Main Street programs. Um, and there's a headline, City's M&A fee haul surged 84%, record dealmaking year. And I think a lot of people are going to continue that. So, you might want to look at the area of business those financials operate in. And I love, and I love the fact that David Sachs on the All-In podcast, who is Trump's crypto and AI czar, he is mad bullish the IPO market in 2026. And man, >> we haven't had a hot IPO market in years, Maggie. And if you remember what that is like, that is like sentiment signals on steroids, because there'll be a hot IPO that comes out, the S&P will come out up a percent, and open up a percent and a quarter.
>> Yeah.
>> Right? The whole index. Why? Because this is exciting.
>> Yeah.
>> This trade is exciting.
>> I used to be down at the floor when those IPOs were >> Oh my God. I mean, it was literally >> giving out swag. I mean, it was like >> it was like New Year's Eve. Every IPO is a mini New Year's Eve on the floor. So, you know, that, that'll be, that, that'll be a level of, that's when you'll see CNN fear and greed pinned in extreme greed.
>> And it'll be with the S&P going vertical for a couple of days, and you'll be saying, "I wonder when this is going to stop."
>> Yeah. Right. Hot. Right. Uh, real quick before we go, a question about Bitcoin and Ripple. Are you looking at crypto? Is that on your book at all?
>> Yeah, I bought the dip at 82K, Maggie, on the pad. We, we, we put the bid out ahead of time before it collapsed. I just drew, I just got diligent with some charting and said, "Okay, how about here? We'll buy some Bitcoin." And we got it $2,000 off the low of the move. As I said to my Slack group members, when it got above the 50K, even though I above the 50-day moving average at like 88K, I didn't love the price action, but that is a, that is an emotionless add to the position. So, I added a little bit more Bitcoin. I didn't have the biggest position, I'll be honest with you, but I added to it, and now I'm getting rewarded for that. And for me, I was looking for, I was looking to catch that bottom and trade the retracement back up to 100K. So, in between here somewhere, in a 106, I am a seller, and I will be out.
>> And if Bitcoin continues on from there, God bless it. That's great.
>> You know what I mean? I, we had a, we had a 25% trade in a month, and that's all I care about.
>> My job.
>> Yeah. Um, Paul says, uh, I have to, I have to talk about this, um, comment. "TG is the Usain Bolt of Traders." [laughter] I love it. Out of the starting block, no slowing down, which I love. Um, it, Tony, you mentioned your Slack channel, and, um, in all seriousness, um, this is, there's a lot, these are big moves. Uh, it, we talked about it earlier. It feels like it's an inflection point. You know, there, there, it's been many years since people traded anything but a straight-up bull market in equities. Most people were in equities for a long time. What are you getting in terms of incoming? I worry about the momentum and people jumping on and just getting slaughtered in some of this action. I mean, you can make a lot of money, but there's, you know, there's a lot of risk when it's moving this fast. What are you hearing on the incoming?
>> Look, I, you know, there's, there's the cool part about having a business in this industry is that you feel the impulse of the client demand and the draw, right? So, we've, we've had several people step up to the sailor's deck product in TG Macro, right? That, that's the product that, that's my most expensive product. It costs $5,000 a year, but what it gets you is one 30-minute per per third, 30-minute session per month, one-on-one. We talk about risk management, or we talk about the markets, right?
>> Half the people there have been a, there's been a rise in subscribers to that package lately. I spend a lot of my day on the phone and on calls just like this >> with other investors and traders.
>> What's, you know, everybody wants the same thing. They want handholding in the metals markets. They, they're starting to see the light. This looks like where to be.
>> And they want to help figure out what the administration means. And I think that, like, because that's what I've been preaching, that's why they're stepping up and they were like, "Okay, I need you to talk about what you wrote about this morning today. I want to understand that better. And how do I manage the risk on this thing that I bought here, and I'm, you know what I mean?" And it's like, "Just relax.
>> Just relax. This is nothing we haven't seen before." But, you know,
>> Well, it's nothing, it's, it's, it's stuff you've seen before, but I think with, especially when it comes to commodities, this is not, this is not, uh, something that most of us have had exposure to, so I can understand why people are sort of stressed out about it, you know?
>> That's true. That's true. But to, you know, to, to go one more length, like this is what, what the people in that, what the people are doing by signing off for that, they're doing the same thing that I'm doing, throwing this conference, Maggie.
>> Yeah.
>> Right. We're throwing this conference down in Nashville. The people that are coming to it are the people that I request 30-minute sessions with every once in a while. Right? Like, "I want to understand energy. Duneberg, I need you for a half hour this afternoon so I can pick your brain."
>> Yeah.
>> You know what I mean? If I'm going to put on something that has to do with that, that I have interest rate risk, I call JD because I have to know what he thinks of the bond market. He's a way better bond trader than me. So, that's what this is, is kind of like, you know, part one of the things in markets is, you know, take a partner.
>> It's a lonely job. So, when you take a partner, and you have a sounding board, and you have somebody to bounce things off of, or you have somebody bouncing things off of your sounding board,
>> There's a lot of synergy there. Like, that's where the value of being on a trading desk was for the entire '90s. You know what I mean? And those communication networks have all been chopped to bits.
>> Yeah. So, what's cool is that I feel within TG Macro, I'm organically rebuilding a lot of those sort of client to broker conversations, client to manager conversations, and people are getting a lot out of it because you can, you know, it's kind of like, why is the Joe Rogan show better than reading a tweet? Well, you can get all the nuance you want out in two and a half hours, right? And so, some people are looking for that.
>> I think, I think it's so true. Um, because the first two weeks of this year have been insane, and I've been having a boatload of conversations, and I'm, um, it's, it's given me so much to think about, and I'm, I'm actually going to do a Substack for you guys. Um, "Reporter's Notebook" Substack, just pulling together some of the threads. But you're right, it's like, it's a, it's a lot more dynamic. Um, but I think this is a time when we all have to make sure that we're really plugged in, because things are just moving so fast, and >> people need to kind of protect, if you've been right and in the right trade, you want to protect that. So, I think it's really important for folks who have experience to share that. Um, a great chat, everybody. Thank you for, um, for being so active and participating, um, and sharing while we're on air. Appreciate it. Tony, always great to catch up with you. I'm actually talking to Duneberg a little bit later in the month. So, it'll be really interesting to hear what he thinks, because again, so many of these people have been calling for some of this for so long. Um, I mean, I talked to Luke Groman, I talked to Larry Lepard, I talked to all these people, and, and Mark Faber, and they're kind of like, "But wait, this is kind of the inflection point we've been waiting for." There's a little bit of disbelief. It's interesting. Um, so it's going to be wild to see where they think it goes from here. So, we'll be following along with you, and I will see you next month in real life down in Nashville.
>> Big hug. A big hug in Nashville, Maggie, and I'll buy you. It's going to be great. I hope a bunch of you can join us. If you haven't gotten a ticket yet, uh, just go to tgmackro.com/conference. We'll put the link in the description in chat. I'll be back on Friday with Dale, who did call that turn in TLT and oil. I tweeted about it today. We'll get his next upside targets. In the meantime, everybody, thanks so much. Take care, and good luck out there.
>> You're the best, Maggie. They some