Transcription
Hello to all of you. I hope you are doing well. We are meeting for the Tuesday, November 25th brief, it is 8:43 AM. Today, we will talk about economic news, the long and short ratio, funding, open interest, and liquidations. We will look at what the whales are doing, finishing with a technical analysis of Bitcoin. But before that, we will look at what happened yesterday. Yesterday, we had an upward movement on Bitcoin, a bit as I predicted in this FVG. If we haven't made the downward movement that I expected, I think it could be postponed to later, or even compromised to come and get it for good reasons, simply because we have validated our trend change. We are currently taking liquidity to the north. So, this means that if we are rejected by the H4 FVG and we come to seek this zone, there will be very little chance, in my opinion, of bouncing back. In my opinion, it will be to make a lower low. So, this means that if we come to seek this zone, do not necessarily look for a long position. Simply because logically it will be compromised and we will go almost 80% to seek $80,546. On the other hand, we still have quite a few bullish biases. Currently, the data is rather bullish. We are technically rather bullish. We have validated a trend change right here. We have created an FVG. We have come back to seek this H4 FVG perfectly in this zone. So clearly, currently, we have no interest in coming to seek below $85,250. If we come to seek below this zone and close below this zone, logically, we will turn bearish again and we will almost certainly go to seek $80,0573. So ideally, the plan is either we make a close below this zone and therefore we will look for a short. In the meantime, as long as this zone holds, we must prioritize a long position to come and seek liquidity to the north, which is located between $97,500 and $98,700. I think that this is a plan that can be really very good to come and seek this zone of $99,000 or between $97,500 and $98,700. Logically, we should come and seek this zone. Now, let's look at the data. Regarding economic news. Today, we will have the main retail sales at 2:30 PM as well as the producer price index. Monthly retail sales as well as consumer confidence. So, same thing, consumer confidence has a direct impact on inflation. So, we risk having quite a bit of volatility, even if tomorrow is the most important day because we will have the PCE core, and that is a really huge indicator of inflation. So, consequently, this news is highly anticipated, but today we risk having quite a bit of volume at 2:30 PM and 4:00 PM. Regarding crypto, what we see is that we have green everywhere. Altcoins are regaining color with the rebound on Bitcoin. Notably, Rain is up 113%, which is quite impressive in one day. We have Kaspa up 25%, Bonk up 9%, Pengu, so these are really shitcoins that are currently rising, so it's not necessarily the most bullish. So, what we see is that shitcoins are really regaining color, and generally, it's not necessarily the most bullish sign for a market; it's rather what pumps at the end of a cycle. So, we will have to be careful about that. If I see altcoins, shitcoins pumping for a week or 10 days, it will mean that we are at a top again and that potentially we are on a fake rebound and we could go much lower. Regarding funding and open interest, what we see is that historically, when we have negative funding, it never lasts very long, and we see a rebound. For example, as we see here, we had negative funding, and then we had a rebound. This doesn't mean it's a bottom; it simply means we will rebound. Same thing here. Negative funding. We had a rebound. Negative funding here, we also had a rebound here. Negative funding here, we had a rebound afterward. So, we have funding that is more than negative. So, logically, we should have a rebound very soon, and then later establish a top or not. But currently, we are really at a capitulation in terms of open interest. We see that absolutely nothing is happening, and yet, well, nothing is happening on the price, and yet there is a total lack of interest in open interest. This means that people are not trading, and therefore, logically, when people are not trading and funding is negative, it means there are no longs, and so we can move forward calmly without too many people on board. So, logically, if we move, we could have quite a few shorts opening because they will believe that we are still validating a bearish trend, and we could go a bit higher. So, this is really interesting. Regarding liquidations, what we see is that we have a cluster of liquidity to be taken at $94,000, and we have a second cluster between $97,000 and $98,300. So, this is the zone I was talking about. So, it is probable that we will go there, knowing that if we go there, we will have liquidated $2.8 billion. And if we go down, below the low, we have $1 billion to liquidate. So, currently, we have more interest in pumping than dumping, even though we still have a nice cluster of liquidity around $83,176, we would liquidate a total of $808 million if we were to go there immediately. So, that would also be interesting. Regarding liquidations in the last 24 hours, we have liquidated $338 million, which is not exceptional either. This is due to the volatility we currently have. Regarding what the whales are doing, the whales are currently buying this movement. They are massively buying this dump. So, this is rather interesting. Retail is doing absolutely nothing, while micro-whales are slowly buying back, really very slowly. But, we see that whales are starting to show interest again in buying Bitcoin. So, perhaps they are precursors of a movement to come. We will know more later. In any case, it is rather interesting. So, technically, what I think is that we have this zone to hold. This zone of $85,221. If this zone does not hold, clearly we will turn bearish again and, in my opinion, we will liquidate below $800. On the other hand, currently, we are simply experiencing a rejection of this H4 FVG. We are in an H4 FVG currently. So, we are blocked between these two zones, and clearly, what I think is that we could completely fill this FVG to then be able to rebound and come and seek the first liquidity cluster, which is located right here. We have $94,000. So, this is located exactly in this FVG zone. So, we would be between $95,200 and $94,300. And I think we will have a rejection in this zone, but it will be for upward continuation, to come and seek $98,000, and then, well, we will see what happens because clearly we cannot know without the data we will have at that time. Ideally, everyone will start shorting, believing that we are in the OTE zone, the retest of the trend, etc., liquidations to be sought to the south, and finally, we continue to pump because everyone has shorted, and that has triggered an upward movement. But, currently, the data indicates that we could head towards $97,500 at a minimum, and then, well, we will see what happens based on the data. So, I will provide you with an update, of course, as every day, when the time comes. But, technically, logically, we are bullish. So, if I decide to take a long position, I will tell you directly on the public group, which is available in the description of this video. So, you simply click on Discord, you check the little green logo to simply accept the Discord rules. So, no spam, etc., these are simply simple rules, and then, well, you will have access to the calls. So, I hope this video was enjoyable. If so, I invite you to subscribe, like, and comment what you think. We will meet again tomorrow at the same time. Take care of yourselves.