Transcription
Now everybody, I'm Cantonese Cat. Hey everybody, Cantonese Cat here.
Nvidia and AMD. What's going on?
Daily yellow candle broken down underneath the ribbon. We're still holding a number of support over here, especially around the U bottom over here around 178. We have held that particular level over here to close the day and also close the week. Right now, we're just hugging this big giant volume shelf over here on the right. And so far, we're finding support here at a support zone, which is not a bad thing.
Now, wellish momentum has significantly declined. Yes. Retail momentum has significantly coming in. Yes. Although the momentum seemed to be slowing down to the downside. You starting to see a little bit of red light over here on Thursday which means that hey maybe we have a chance to reverse this trend of downwardness over here. The yellow candle here is still active but we also are finding some pretty decent wick over here saying that the hey I think we are finding some um you know demand down here underneath. So, uh, even though Welsh momentum is plumbing down here, we'd like to see some stabilization here on the Wales momentum to help stabilize the trend and potentially reverse it.
Now, looking at the weekly chart, unfortunately, last week we've had a yellow candle and so far it's been working out. We have um so far have price gone down inside the red ribbon here. We're still on top of the volume shove control uh point control volume shelf over here and we're still inside the ribbon. So, there's not really any, you know, sign is necessarily going to have to break down underneath yet. Although, the yellow candle here is a warning sign.
If you're one of those folks that like to buy red candles and sell yellow candles, you would have sold last week and you would have done okay. Um the the Welsh momentum is still quite high though. So the yellow candle here may or may not work out. You see how sometimes when the W momentum is high you have yellow candle it just get reversed right and sometimes because on the on the weekly here we get a little bit choppy over here but we've just basically been rangebound here for months. Um you can get some weakness here but it could potentially get reversed. So we will see.
With that said, I do think if you want to trade in and out and if you like the system and you like the yellow and the red candles, then last week was a sell signal for you.
Now, looking at my chart whether I think on the monthly chart here, you can see that Nvidia and this is lock scale. It's gone through multiple cycles, right? And the cycle didn't die because it bounced off the 20-month moving average, not like the other couple cycles over here. So we have a renewed bullishness over here. Price bounced off the 20 went to the upper Ballinger band. The upper Ballinger band haven't expanded fast enough yet. So price is just correcting here sideways.
We have also gotten price who um basically found support here at the kitchen, the red line over here on the monthly over the Ichimoku cloud where previously it didn't, right? Broke down, went a lot further, broke down, went a lot further. We found support. We bounced above the tenkin which is the blue line here. And right now we are a little bit overextended. You see sometimes when you overextended you just kind of stay up for for a few months overextended. Stay up for a few months sideways. Overextended stay up a few few months and sideways. We might end up doing that and just wait for the tenken to kind of catch up here. And this month is a little bit of a correction sideways if you will. That's as far as I I'm concerned what this price action is to me.
Now looking at the fib levels here, what I'm really seeing from the previous high and previous low here of 2020 and 2022, you do a fib sequence here. You can see how the 2.272 log fib is a very important level. Once it gets there, that could have potentially be a cycle top there. And it did got me worried, you know, um last year that hey, maybe maybe we are hitting a little bit of a cycle top over here.
Now with that said, we have broken through that. We haven't really back tested it. I don't think we necessarily have to, but we've broken through that and so far we are also not just broken through 2272, but also broken through 2.4 and four here. And we're doing a little bit of back test and finding some solid grounding here around 179 before we uh you know potentially go up higher. If we don't, 150s is always a possibility of back test. That's when we haven't really hit that yet. Who knows what this sinister market has in store for us, right? We'll have to see.
With that said, also looking at a, you know, a little bit of a lower time frame here. If you look at the top here from 2024 and the bottom here in April, you can see how we form a fifth sequence over here. We've broken got close to 1 618. Not quite there, but we've broken through to 1.272. And right now 1.272 is still holding at support. Again, if it breaks, is 150s a possibility? Sure. Would that be a great buying opportunity? Yeah. Um, are you going to get that? I don't know. Right.
It's also kind of around the 20week moving average. Is holding that level last time when it touches it, it might dip down a little bit below, but not too far. If it goes down underneath, can it get to the 150s where the the 50we moving averages? Sure, it's possible, but it hasn't really shown previous behavior it would necessarily have to happen. Right now looking zooming in a little bit more. I was I was telling you the 1.272 was an important level. You can see how is important level here on the daily chart. Hold hold hold. Right. The more tested the more I do get worried it might end up breaking down. But so far we're seeing some demand here. So just prepare for the possibility of it breaking down and prepare for the possibility of 150s which is always there but is not necessarily have to happen. Right.
Nvidia has a confluence of support around 178 and it's finding support there as I've shown you with all these fib levels on decent volume. You have a rising 20week moving average and also have a hammer daily candle look to it which shows demand underneath. Now while 153 is always a possibility current confluent support is holding well let's take one level at a time. With that said 153 would be a great area to consider adding if we end up being back there again. And although at that time I think most people would be probably too scared to add and there might be some liquidation cascade that might bring the the number down below 153 if it happens. Nobody knows. Um and then people would be like your level your support level has been broken you know and so so on and so forth. But that's kind of where I'm seeing you know what um I think it's going to hold if it doesn't consider you know adding 153 is still a bullish stock cuz it's still forming higher highs and higher lows.
AMD, what's going on? Did you expect this big giant move to not cool down? Uh, I mean, I expect it to cool down. Do you think this big giant gap down here is going to close around 170? I'm not sure. I'm still not sure if it has to close or not.
Looking at a very important thing here on the point of control on the right, you're seeing purple here. Purple means that AMD is oversold here on the daily. We're also a little bit over far overextended to the downside here with this hammer candle over here from the ribbon. Momentum is still going down, but Welsh momentum seem to be stabilizing here, which means that we might be at the process of trying to find a bottom. We are still hanging around. We did end up closing a little bit below this momentum bar over here, but we're still hanging around this momentum bar over here, which might mean something.
The entire thing is that we have basically have this really bullish candle. The red candle on the weekly is still in place by the way, which tells us that the bias is still to the upside until proven otherwise. Right? Basically, you push through all the way up, wait for the ribbon to catch up. You're back testing the ribbon right now. You're also getting back to this um zone of support over here on the volume shelf. None of this is really anything particularly concerning. You do have a little bit of loss of momentum here. Obviously, you do also have loss of whales here, but it's still in the 80s. So, as far as I'm concerned, good support level, little loss of momentum here to watch out for. Closing the gap is always a possibility, but I just don't necessarily see it, you know, have to happen.
Now, looking at my FIT level here, what happened? Well, we end up getting rejected here at the 1.414. That's what happened. We tried to push above that for a few weeks. We weren't able to. So price ended up having to come back down. Um it ended up not holding the 222 level, the 1.272 lock fib. So you know what happens? Well, here it ended up getting rejected there. That could have potentially been a breakout in a back test, but so far we end up losing that level. So what happens? Do we have to close the gap all the way down here? Um I I don't again I don't necessarily have to think that it has to close all the gap gap all the way down to the 170s but you have to take that into consideration before it even gets to 170.
You can also look like right now 200 is a pretty strong support level. It's basically a breakout and back test of 0.86 is still holding so far. If it breaks below 200 180 is a possibility. If it breaks below 180, 170 closer gap, 165 is a possibility. But again, one level at a time and it's holding strong support here.
If you are changing the fibs here, instead of looking at the fibs from the current up and down, if you use the down level over here at the bottom of 2022 crash, you can also see that it's basically getting close to 0.61 86 here. So, does it get down further to like the low 190s? You still can find support down there too, right? On top of that, 180 uh 187 is where the rising 20week moving average is at right now. You can potentially find some support there.
Overall, this is still a bullish stock, right? Higher highs and higher lows. Right now, you have a very bullish candle last month and right now it's correcting because things are just way overextended. This is not a bad thing. You can also see how what it's doing right now. It pushed through the 0.77 0.6.8 8 um sorry 0.77 0.76 0.86 pushed through the all-time high here. It needed to cool down, right? Push through one one, two, three, four fib levels coming back down and back test the the the second one. Not a bearish thing here at all.
To summarize, AMD is finding support at 200 as expected. While I don't think the gap below on the weekly chart necessarily have to close, 180 would be a good fib level support below. 170 would close the gap below. 165 is the fib level below that. But all these levels would be good levels to consider adding that may not you know depends on whether or not the market gives you that opportunity. Trend continues to be strong on a higher time frame and I expect a little bit more time either weeks or months to consolidate the recent big move to push through four fib levels before pushing higher to levels about. I do believe that in 2026 because it's a bullish stock a higher level anywhere around 300 335 is possible in 2026.
Thank you so much. Have a good one. Right.