Transcription
My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a losing trader until I mastered technical analysis. Logic and charts beat hype and narratives every time. Now I teach investors the same techniques that made me a multi-millionaire. This is my trading game plan.
Hey everybody, welcome to my trading game plan. Of course, I am Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist here at verifiedinvesting.com. So we have a lot going on today. The president is actively now giving a speech in Davos. The markets right now are just waiting to see is anything going to be said about Greenland ultimately what is going to happen there. All right, there'll be an interview a little bit later on CNBC with President Trump as well. The markets will be glued to their screens looking for any indication that he may lighten up on his stance towards Greenland and towards the tariffs on those eight European countries. All right.
Now, ultimately, we saw that breakdown occur yesterday, the one that I've been talking about. Let's go check in with the markets right now, and see where things are. S&P futures, you can see we're trading basically just off of our lows of the day. But if you look at where we closed yesterday, right, we closed right around here. We're basically flat to negative. So, again, I think the key here is understanding that the markets for the most part are just waiting to hear from the president, right? We're waiting to hear is there any movement on what he's threatening to impose in terms of tariffs, his stance on Greenland, that will be the driving force of today's markets. All right. If there's no change or if he hardens further, markets will likely go down.
Now, the biggest result of this is the bond market sending another warning signal. Remember the bond market during the April uh selloff on tariffs. Basically, we saw yields spiking, people dumping debt, US debt, and that kind of pulled the president back from the edge of imposing massive tariffs. That is again occurring to some level and needs to be paid attention to. All right.
Let's go to the S&P 500 here. Taking a look, this is what we've been talking about for a while, folks. We have this chart here, which again denotes the big parallel. And I've been saying now for the last month or so that this was going to be massive resistance up here. Sure enough, we've been following this white trend line from the April 2025 liberation telloff sell-off lows and that has now broken. Now, it is technically unconfirmed, meaning that it's not a confirmed breakdown yet. So, we want to see what the price action occurs today, but it is definitely a shot across the bow, if you will, of the overall market. big down day yesterday over 2% on the S&P. We haven't seen a sell-off in one day like that in months. And again, it did occur yesterday, breaking that key trend line.
Now, turning our attention to the NASDAQ. This is the bigger one here, folks. The NASDAQ, if we look at this chart, we can see that we closed below here. All right, this was two days where I should say Friday and then we confirmed yesterday. So, the NASDAQ has a confirmed breakdown to it. Um, again, looking to open just fractionally lower today. All right, so we'll continue to watch this. Where will we'll be first support if we dump out today? A potential technical bounce level would be right at 600 on the QQQ, the NASDAQ 100 ETF. But again, I wouldn't be looking to swing trade that to the long side, just more so that would be a bounce, maybe a day tradable bounce. Overall, we've got to respect the chart. And the chart again tells us that this uptrend in the NASDAQ 100 has now been confirmed as a breakdown. And that again is something we've been talking about in this game plan quite a bit. All right.
Let's move on to the big warning sign. Take a look at this guys. We can see again that bull flag that I've been warning was a bull flag and was telling us rates were actually going to go up. That has occurred. Massive move up. Close above confirmation today. were pausing a little bit of upside in the 10-year. And just to kind of point this out, uh Denmark actually said they were going to a pension, I should say, a pension fund from Denmark said they were dumping all US treasuries. And so again, granted, Denmark's kind of at the the the the crux of the Greenland um you know, situation, if you will. But at the same time it goes to a bigger point that again there's a lot of these pension funds around the world a lot of these countries around the world they own US debt and if everyone starts to dump rates go up not down even in times of uncertainty very important to understand that folks what we're facing here and again we talk about well does this affect the average person and the answer is yes number one it's bad for the stock market number two it does raise interest rates on things like mortgages credit card debt all of those type of loans that's tied to the 10-year yield. That's the important factor here.
Now, after that, we saw this kind of uh unfolding with the tariff threat against these eight European uh nations um over Greenland, we have seen the dollar also falling, right? So, again, usually, and this is very important, folks, because we're seeing a switch or a changing of the guard here. A lot of you guys have thought about ddollarization and I've been saying that ddollarization is occurring but it takes a really long time for it to occur, right? You don't see just countries be able to flip off the switch of using dollars as the reserve currency. Obviously, gold has been accumulated massively by central banks and countries like China in an attempt to move away from the dollar. That will continue. But usually in times of uncertainty, global uncertainty, the dollar goes up as a safe haven asset. In the latest move here, we're seeing the dollar going down. Right? There's your fall the last couple days on the US dollar. Now, the dollar overall is still stuck within this range. But remember, I've said this before, if we look at the bigger time frame, this range is what type of pattern, right? We look at the pattern and pattern recognition is key. And we can see this is a bare flag pattern formation. What does that mean? It means the eventual path is likely a break of a major uptrend on the dollar going back to the financial crisis in 2008 and nine. Right there it is right there. That is not a good thing for the dollar on the longer side of of overall dominance. All right.
So we've got a kind of macro picture. Obviously, we're waiting to see what the futures do here going into the stock market open, what comments are made by the president, but needless to say, we've seen the bond market starting to react uh with yields shooting higher the last few days and the dollar is starting to weaken more and more.
Now, let's switch and look at the earnings news. So, Netflix reported earnings, right? And Netflix here, folks, take a look at this. Netflix again down sharply on the day getting a small bounce here as the markets are bouncing just a tiny bit but ultimately again this is just something we have to monitor here. All right so again I want to keep a very close eye on Netflix in terms of a technical level here. If we go to our daily chart on Netflix I want to show you this trend line. This is a trend line I found yesterday. It goes back to 2022. Look at how it connects through this low. In fact, I'll put little arrows here so we can denote it. Low pivot, low pivot there. And let me just get that tied in there. So, we have our low pivot. Low pivot there. Here we did breach it once and then we reestablished there. And we're coming basically down to it on a pierce of 80 today. On a pierce of 80. I like it. Again, there'll also be additional support right around the 75 level. But you're starting to get into levels where Netflix starts to be intriguing as a swing trade. I think the key is you have to also look at this gap down here where it tells you maybe we go and listen not today. I mean if as a day trade I'm looking to buy the $80 pierce and kind of dollar cost average for a bounce there. But in a swing trade basis it could go as low as 68 here. Uh this would be a major gap fill right there. There's a big gap. Gap would be filled just around just below $69 per share.
Now flipping back here we got to look at the futures. We are seeing a little bit of a pop here. We saw Netflix moving up. So, the futures are getting a little bit of a bid here in the pre-market, most likely on the back of comments from the president, but nonetheless, we'll see where they pan out here. But again, a little bit of a push up here on the S&P futures in real time as the market digests the president's speech.
Going to other stocks here. So, UL United Airlines did bounce on earnings. Now, what's interesting about this daily chart is it kind of got pummeled going into earnings. It was trading around $120. Yesterday it closed around 108, bouncing back to 112. It's not a big bounce in terms of trades. I don't really like a stock that's only moving about 4% on earnings, especially for one that that's kind of in the realm of normaly. I look for the big moves like on Netflix where it's outsized, where it's not normal. That means you have emotion involved in that trade and therefore there's opportunity. Where there's emotion versus logic, then there's opportunity in trading. J&J down slightly on earnings here. Nothing really to write home about. Um again, the stock's been trading in a tight uptrend here. Uh down just slightly. You can see it rally up just over the last week and pulling back slightly. Same sort of deal here. It's barely down on the day. So, it's not going to be a tradable opportunity.
Now, we've looked at day trading opportunities, right? We talked a little bit about maybe a swing trade level on Netflix as well, but I want to now move into other charts that I'm watching, like what's catching my eye for a potential swing trade. And on this one, this one's a big one, guys. We have Micron, which we talked about yesterday. Yesterday, it put in a topping tail. All right. Now, it is looking to gap up a little bit today, but this is a major distribution signal on Micron. An extended chart up 500. Let me repeat this. Micron is up 500% since the April 2025 lows. Incredible move. Partially warranted. I'm not sure if 500% warranted, but nonetheless, it has become one of the darlings of retail, and they've continued to buy those zero-day options on it, which has kept it buoyant. Once that ends, this should pull back. The topping tail on the daily chart may tell us that is on the verge. Let's watch and see. Now, remember, any close above 382 basically negates the topping tail and breaks us above this trend line. But let's watch and see. Right now, trading around $37,2.75.
All right, another one. Apple. Apple. Look at this. This was a level that I told you guys about in this very game plan. I said, guys, huge parallel short on Apple right up here at 285. It was a great trade. We bottomed out yesterday around 246 or so. However, look at the midpoint of the parallel. We're right into that. In addition, we're at this pivot low. This tells me there's a bounce likely here in Apple. Apple down. I think it's about six straight weeks. Let's take a look. Let's see here. One uh let's see. One, two, three, four, five, six. This would be the seventh week down in a row on Apple. Um and again, I don't love it as a longer term trade. Let's be clear. I don't love it as a longer term trade, but as a swing trade for a bounce of5 to$10, maybe 15 bucks, I actually do like it for that. It is a good technical level. A 50% draw down in the price almost in a vertical move based on the parallel right to the midpoint of the parallel and a secondary pivot. And there should be again probability. Remember everything I talk about is all probability. So nothing's obviously guaranteed, but probability favors a bounce on Apple here. All right.
Let's look at gold. Gold continues to move up. It is pulling back a little bit. We did talk yesterday about the strength in gold here. had this trend line that kind of broke above, right? We broke above this trend line here. It is still likely we could get up to about $5,000 per ounce. That would be the upper end of this parallel, but again, gold continues to be robustly strong. Silver. Now, silver's kind of been struggling here, right? I mean, yes, it stayed right at the highs, but I'm less bullish on silver, even more bearish because of this parallel. We've seen how good the parallels work on something like Apple where it had that major top, right? Where we pulled back from the high end of that parallel to the 50% marker. And that on silver again, it's not as good a parallel because it doesn't go back as far, right? The one on Apple goes back five years. This one only goes back a few months, frankly. So, it's definitely not as powerful, but it still could be something to keep an eye on here. And it's just interesting because look at silver here. We're starting to see a bigger sell in silver and in gold. Look at the intraday on gold. The intraday gold starting to come in. And then look at the ES futures. Futures are moving up. And so again, maybe a little calming of tensions. Maybe not so much craziness on. And again, I haven't been able to tune into the speech since the game plan started, but just looking at the data, that would tell me that maybe there's a slight slight softening in the tone against these eight European uh nations on these tariffs, and that's enough to bring a a a risk on trade to the stock market slightly here, and we'll see where it goes later today, right? We don't know. And and by the way, the president will do an interview soon, and that could all change, right? But ultimately, the idea here is that futures, S&P futures up, gold and silver coming down as your safe haven assets. Very interesting to take note of that as well. And again, this is a nice little pop now on the chart of the ES.
Now, let's look at oil here. Oil continues to be up. I continue to be bullish on oil. Um, again, why? Because it broke out, right? And again, part of it is the breakout. Part of it's the technicals. Part of it's also the fact that oil is trading at the same levels it was trading at, you know, basically you could go back to 2015, right? And it was trading at 2015 levels. And so when you look at the inflation in the currency and then you look at the price being the same price that it was trading at a long time ago, to me it tells me that the inflation adjusted price on oil should probably, hate to say this, but probably be around $80 a barrel. Now again, there is more supply and that's offsetting some of that upside, but still should it still be at these lows? Probably not. Should be a little bit higher and we'll see how that goes here on the price of oil. All right, so again, very interesting chart on that, but either way, the chart broke out a little bit of a retrace. Now we'll see if it can take out this 62 and a half level at resistance.
Now, we got to turn our attention to natural gas. Wow. This is why they call it the widowmaker, folks. So, number one, I was long that gas. I did exit yesterday. Wish I hadn't. Needless to say, I mean, we made good money on it, don't get me wrong. But today, it's up another 27%. 60% in three trading days on natural gas, a commodity of 60% in three trading days. Why? Well, I think what happened was, and this is what the chart was telling me, is that people were off sides. Right down here, this fall on Nat Gas was down to a double bottom. So, you had a technical level. In addition, way too much of a fall considering we're still in the midst of winter. And all of a sudden, there's this storm on the horizon, this epic storm here in the US heading to the Plains, then the Northeast, um, and even somewhat of the south, and it's going to dump a ton of cold weather and snow. And traders probably were overshort natural gas down there, and they basically are getting squeezed. I mean, that's why, again, like I said, they call it the widowmaker. Um, incredible move. I would never have been short at those lows. Obviously, that's not the way I trade. I look to buy support, not short down ent support, but um just a remarkable move here, folks, on natural gas. Now, is there a shortable level? Yeah, I mean, after a 60% move, you probably would say it's due for a pullback here. And again, I'm not short at this point, but I mean, you could see why you have these little pivot lows right in here that could act again as our last little area of resistance on NAC gas. And the idea here would also be that as do we get through this next cold period, maybe obviously the short squeeze abates and then price comes in just a little bit as as as weather warms up a little bit and we get through that storm. Um, also I think again part of this move is a short squeeze, right? And when you have a short squeeze, eventually the squeeze is over and then prices adjust naturally. So I' I'd probably expect a pullback to let's say 375. We're currently at around 423 or so. So, I mean, that's decent decent pullback over 10 15% or so uh of this move at minimum off of this kind of current level. All right, so we have that.
Let's not forget Bitcoin. Bitcoin's a big one here, guys. This is big. We closed below this trend line, but remember, we did not confirm it, right? You can't confirm until the next day. That's what the confirmation dictate signal dictates. Now, we're trying to recapture it. Let's watch today. This is a warning sign, just like on the S&P. Remember we talked about how the S&P had not confirmed but it had closed below. This is something we're monitoring very closely as well. Can it recapture support before it confirms? The idea is when something closes below but doesn't confirm the odds that it's a real breakdown are only around 5050, right? Believe it or not. Um so it's it's a coin toss essentially. Uh once you confirm those odds shoot up to about 75% that it's a real breakdown. And so there's a real difference maker and that's why I focus so much on all right do we just close below could it be a whip out or did we actually confirm a breakdown here in the markets in which case it usually signals sure they can bounce but then you have more downside to come. So we'll continue to follow that on Bitcoin here uh in the coming hours and days. Let's see where Bitcoin goes today.
S&P futures are still holding strong here as we head into the stock market open in about 13 minutes or so. Notice where we're up to on the S&P, right up into this level right here, trying to break above the the early morning lows on the S&P futures. And one thing I'll just leave you with is that if there's one thing I know about the president, the one thing that I, as a technician of the charts, he does pay attention to the stock market. I'm sure he saw the reaction in the bond market yesterday, which is what he saw in the liberation selloff in April, and I'm sure he saw the resulting selloff in the stock market, and he's not a fan of that. And so again, it's almost like the presidential put. We talk about the Fed put, right? Um but here you have a presidential put where anything that is negative, let's say. Um if it drives the market down too much, you can expect a softening. It's where the whole, you know, like um tariff and and um you know, essentially, you know, wuss out if you will. That that's where that whole thing came from because he does care about the stock market and keeping the stock market up. He gauges himself and his his um administration off the stock market results.
All right, guys. That's all from me today. As always, thank you guys for tuning in. I appreciate it. Let's get to trading. Have a good one, guys. Take care.