🚨Bitcoin : le Verdict de l'Inflation Arrive : Préparez-vous au Choc !

Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in good shape, that you are happy to meet again for this Bitcoin journal this Thursday, October 23, 2025, in front of a slightly green crypto market today. It decided to make a small rebound, whether it's for cryptocurrencies or for the traditional market. You see with the big tech stocks that are a little bit green today. So we have the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the Dow Jones which are slightly in the green. Everything will be decided directly tomorrow with these magnificent inflation figures that Robert and Alfred will pull out from their couch while watching Netflix because they have been at home since the government shutdown. But it's okay, it will be quite folkloric. So for now, the markets are also waiting a bit for tomorrow. Yesterday, Bitcoin ETFs sold for about 100 million dollars. Ethereum ETFs for 18 million. We are still in fear. Well, it's normal to be afraid. Robert and René are sipping a small Coke Zero or a Coke not zero while eating a small burger, you see, in front of Disney Plus. So, and it is they who will dictate the direction of the market tomorrow, Robert and René directly, because we will tell them, "Come out with the inflation figures," and Robert René will say, "Well, where do we get them from?" You're kidding. Robert and René will take dice, they will throw dice like this, they will do, "It's good, René, he rolled a 2.8." Well, there's no decimal point, and you understood the idea? Today, altcoins are making a small green candle. Very good. However, well, it's nothing very bullish yet. We're not even managing to pass the resistance at 746 billion, which has been the average over the last 9 days. It's quite weak. To start thinking, "Ah, that's not bad, let's break this little resistance that has been acting as resistance here since Sunday, approximately, to go look for the 50-day moving average." So a small, a small +10% +11%, you see, that would be good to go look for the 50-day moving average here for altcoins. Well, and for now, the bears are tiring, so will they succeed? Well, it will all depend on tomorrow's figures. The structure doesn't change. So we have a small A, small B. Is this the small C that is starting, and in that case, has it broken this high? But as long as it doesn't break, unfortunately, the last high around 834 billion dollars. I'll put it here a bit bigger, well, it could be a small A, a small B. Ah, the small Z, you see. So you've understood that tomorrow, the inflation figures will validate this small structure, 7 B to then make 7 A, well, 7 B and boom, finally 7 C, but well, after that it will be A, my God, you see. Well, so, or tomorrow's figures, if they are good, it will directly push, push, explode. We'll say, very good, small A, small B, the small C which is a bit weird. Well, after, if I have to look in terms of structural beauty, a more natural structure, for it to push directly like that, it would be very ugly, huh. An A, a B, a C like that, and the C doing something a bit weird like that. In fact, the structure would be cleaner if we have this wave here that breaks the bottom here. And then we will really have something prettier in terms of structure. So in short, you will have a small A, the B that zigzags, boom, the wave C that does this. All of this is a big wave B for this A, this B. And then there will be a wave, a rising wave, you see. Well, so we'll see tomorrow with the inflation figures. Well, for now, the bulls are a bit tired, so well, the bears are tired, so maybe the bulls will come back. We'll see the figures. Bitcoin is also a bit green today, aiming for $109,824 to say, "This is good, let's go all the way up." We need to hit this whole resistance zone above $116,000. Well, $116,000, that's good, that's the high. So it's the same story for Bitcoin. In short, well, if Bitcoin explodes with the inflation figures above $105,000, it would mean that we have A, we have B, all of this is C. C which is underway, boom boom boom, you see? And that's good news. It's good news also because in short, it will tell us even better. It will tell us that here we have this big wave that we took a hit on. It will be the big wave A, and from there a big wave B will start, and later, we will have a big wave C. But it would mean that the structure is progressing. It's the same structure, a small, medium corrective structure. You see, that's the idea. However, if tomorrow's inflation figures are not good at all and boom it falls, it means we are still in the big wave A. And so that means that the correction, we haven't even started wave B, it would mean. And so what does that mean? The correction will last a very long time. It will last several months, clearly. So let's hope it breaks $116,000 so we can say, and I can tell you clearly every day, it's good, wave A finished. Wave B is starting, and wave B can last several more weeks, then wave C which will also last a few weeks. But in any case, we are on the second wave. We are starting to move forward. But if tomorrow, boom, we break $103,000, oh dear, oh dear, that would mean we haven't even finished wave A, we will spend the winter in this corrective structure which will last many months. Remember that last year, we spent 8 or 9 months in a corrective structure, but well, these are continuation structures, and once they finish, boom, they explode upwards. We did that last year, well, last year for 8 or 9 months. We did that at the beginning of the year, from December to April as well. Well, silence, it's back to September to January, well, well, it will be as usual, but these corrective structures are a bit annoying. That's why if it breaks the low, it would mean that well yes, we are starting a big structure because wave A isn't even finished, you see. We'll have to set up a tent and bring out the picnic baskets. Well, for now, the bears are tiring a bit. So, at the level of liquidations here, we can see that well, unfortunately, the big cluster is to the south, you see. So, can tomorrow be tricky? Tomorrow the inflation figures come out, let's say exactly at 3.1%, you see, a small increase of 0.2, people will say it's going up, but we are, as I think the market, you see, the market can also think of inflation at 100,000, we'll still be at the bottom, well, and so it grinds, it grinds a little bit there, and then boom it goes down, well, we have to be careful here because if you want, if the market goes for example to $102,000, there are 8 billion to eat, if it goes to $116,000, there are 4.5 billion, you see, so be careful, it's true that seeing the big cluster to the south, seeing that the consensus expects an increase in general inflation, seeing here the structure that tells us well, it's still a small corrective channel that can do this. If I have to wet my hat in lukewarm water, you see, because I'm cautious, I would tell you it doesn't smell mega, but giga, you see. Well, after, we'll have the answer tomorrow. At the Ethereum level, same thing. It's, well, if it continues to fall here, we are still in the big wave. Or else here, we also have a big corrective channel here for a small A, for a small B, and as long as we don't break the low of A around $3464, boom, we will aim for above $4300. But all of this will be the big B of this big A. We will have to endure a big C. There you go. So you've understood that these are structures that last a long time, but the good news is that if we don't break the low tomorrow like Bitcoin, it would mean that very well. If it does that, it means we are well on the big B. You see, the good news for tomorrow would be Bitcoin breaking $116,000, breaking $4300, and we can say, "Okay, it's good, wave A is finished, and all of this is wave B, you see, small A, small B, boom! Small C, all of this is a big wave B. The structure is finally progressing, so it won't last 3 or 4 months, you see, but if, like Bitcoin, tomorrow it's a descent, well, it means we are still in the big wave A, and because you can't say this is A, this is B, this is C, no, no, that doesn't work, you see, so we hope that tomorrow the figures will be rather kind, you see, otherwise for Ethereum, it's a minimum of looking for $3000 here, 239 moving average 200, see the gap at 2853, the structure is becoming big. For now, the bulls, the bulls are starting to regain some momentum, you see, the bears are tiring, it's rather good news. And if we look at liquidity, well, Ethereum is a bit more filled to the north. Why? Because you see that there have been more shorts recently. Ethereum, since around September 19th, has been more short than long. So you see, you have more liquidity to the north, while if I take Bitcoin. For him, it's the opposite, he's more long than short here since October 2nd, you see the green line above the red one. So since it's more long than short, Bitcoin, well, there's more liquidity at the bottom. And Ethereum, since it's more short than long, well, there's more liquidity at the top. Shorts are at the top and longs are at the bottom, and who is in the middle? Well, it's quite funny. Well, so for now, can Ethereum, well, it can go both ways, huh. So it's clear that if tomorrow it goes badly, can it go below $3464? Yes, clearly it can go below $3464. There's about a little more than 3 billion. It also has 4 billion to aim for above, around $4003. After that, it's tricky, in short, there's that, you see. So it can do small A, small B, small C. It can do another little push like that. But well, I think if it starts to break that, it means we are on the big B. So it won't break, it won't break $4300. Unless we go for the big B and Bitcoin breaks $116,000. These are really the levels, 116 and 4300, the levels that would tell us, well, it's going well, it's progressing, and we won't last, we won't stay 10,000 years in the structure, you see. At the Solana level, well, for now, it's holding its little resistance. It would be good if it went to its 50-day moving average here and passed the 213, because that's the high here around 211, 212, 213, not to mention 3 dollars. Well, and it's the same scenario if Solana starts to boom, to break that. Ah, then it will start to feel good. It would mean we are in wave B. So when it did its nuclear descent from 238, boom, to here. So wave A, we'll say it's finished if it doesn't break 211 and all of this is wave B. Zigzag, zigzag. It can zigzag however it wants, but it would mean we are in wave B, and after that, we'll just have to wait for the end of wave B and wave C, and the structure is finished. There you go, for a month, a month and a half, you see. Ah, it won't last 3 days, huh. But on the other hand, if tomorrow, with the US inflation figures, because there are the US inflation figures, there's also Japanese inflation coming out, huh. These two are bound to create volatility, you see. So if tomorrow the figures are bad, both inflations, rising inflation, and boom it falls directly, it means we are still in wave A, we haven't even started wave B, and then we are off to download Netflix series. You see what I mean? So it's going to be, it's going to be tough. Well, for now, if we look a little at the liquidity clusters, well, there's more to the south than to the north. Why? Because Solana, since around August 28th, has been more long than short. It has been long for a long, long time, more long than short. So there's more liquidity to the south than liquidity to the north. And so what we don't want is for it to break 170. Does liquidity tell us it can break it? Yes, it can go there. If tomorrow it's not good, it will be yum yum yum yum yum down to 170. And then, well, it won't be great. At the XRP level now, well, it's the same as the others. If we look at the clusters here, there are more. There's a bit more liquidity. Yes, it's almost a tie, huh, because you see why it's a tie? This also shows us. It was more short than long, in short, from August 13th to around September 18th. Then after, it's more long than short since September 23rd. So one time shorts dominate, one time longs dominate, and in the end, it puts, well, approximately, the same clusters, 2500 million to the north, 250,000 to the south. It's balanced, this little XRP. It wants to eat a good little cluster with big leverage up to 2.45. I wouldn't be surprised if it goes there. So it's exactly the same. If XRP breaks $2.64, it will be good news. That is to say, the structure will take less time. After all, the structures all evolve together, so you can just remember $116,000 for Bitcoin. That's the main thing, the rest will follow. You see, XRP, the bears are tiring, it's good news. So, can it climb towards 2.45, or even its 200-day moving average at 2.59? I think so, because at 2.59, it's to eat all of that, so it could quite possibly go there. Be careful, inflation, the figures are sometimes tricky. It's that at the beginning it pushes, it goes to look for a little resistance there to eat all of that, and in the end, bam, it reverses, you see. So be careful with volatility tomorrow, it will be on both sides. It's a double-edged sword. Well, let's move on to the traditional market. Well, Wall Street is doing pretty well. We have the Magnificent Seven which are rather green. The Stock 600 is rather mixed, which is normal. It's waiting for tomorrow's inflation figures. 2:30 PM, and 2:30 PM is bound to cause swings. Anyway, we'll keep each other informed, of course. Tomorrow, we'll be here. For now, the S&P 500 is a bit green, the Nasdaq too, the Dow Jones too, the Euro Stoxx 600 likewise, European tech is open in the green, it's being bought back a bit. Everything Asian, it's not moving much. It's waiting for tomorrow's big figures. Gold is making a small rebound after two days of red, but a very, very timid rebound. And silver too. The barrel is regaining strength, huh. That's not great. The barrel might test its 200-day moving average around 65. If it manages to break that, it will be quite inflationary. At the crypto-stock level. So companies doing mining or like Coinbase, MicroStrategy here, or Coinbase, well, for now, it's not very good. MicroStrategy is in freefall, to hell, since when? Since July 16th. Since July 16th, MicroStrategy has gone down -38%. It stings a bit. No wonder they are unfortunately only buying in batches of 100 bitcoins now, not 10,000 bitcoins. For now, big sell-off, big sell-off on the bond market, on US Treasury bills and a bit on European ones too. We have yields rising a bit. Well, that's not too serious. It's just, I think people are returning to cash a bit, you see. The dollar is slightly in the green, waiting for tomorrow's inflation figures. These will be the important figures. There you go. So for now, well, the structure is still evolving calmly, and no new developments. Tomorrow, the inflation figures will move the structure. I think we will have confirmation if the structure will be shorter, will be short, or if the wave B is underway, or if we will fall lower. Everyone dares to do it. Bitcoin below $103,000. And that would mean that we haven't even started wave B, and then it's going to be long. It's going to be long, huh. After, when it's long, it's not a big deal. Does it bother me to have long corrections? No. Last year, for 9 months, GDCA for 9 months, and the structure was a bearish channel that told us at some point, I'm going to explode upwards. Not wrong, last year it went up to 48,000, 48,000, 50,000. Many capitulated, but after, boom, we ended at over 100,000, you see. It's the same here, if it takes 3 or 4 months to calmly consolidate in a correction, it's not a problem. I continue with a little DCA. DCA on Bitcoin is easy. After, you can't DCA everything that's floating around, huh. There are altcoins, we don't DCA them, you never know. You can DCA into a black hole, it just sucks your money and that's it. So you just have to be careful what you DCA. But in any case, long corrections are opportunities to load up, load up, load up your portfolio. It's not an investment, you see, and to then take off again. For Bitcoin, I'm talking about Bitcoin, okay? I'm not talking about, you can't reload all the time. There are altcoins, you reload them, you think, yes, it's too great, it's too great, I'm too happy, I'm buying too low. It's just dying, you see. So just be careful what you reload. For Bitcoin, you can reload with your eyes closed, in mode, yes, what's happening? You can reload as you wish. The rest, well, same. Kisses. Thanks for listening, and I'll see you tomorrow. Bye bye. He.