Transcription
In 2024, Rio Grande do Sul faced one of its worst crises in recent history. The floods not only destroyed homes and businesses but also cast a shadow over the future of the state. It was one of those moments when reality brutally exposes the weaknesses of a place.
Today, there are signs of recovery. Things are slowly getting back to normal. But the truth is that the impact was profound. It was a stark reminder of how fragile – and, perhaps, stuck in time – the state has become.
Seven months after the disaster, at the end of 2024, a headline caught my attention: “Five of fourteen bridges destroyed by flood still had no start date for construction.” That’s right – not even a deadline. This made me think: what can we expect from a state that delayed a project planned for the 2014 World Cup by ten years? The 2018 and 2022 World Cups began and ended... and the work was still there, unfinished.
But the problem goes beyond delayed construction or devastating floods. This state, once a symbol of prosperity in the eighties and nineties, has been facing a painful transformation. The good times gave way to economic insecurity, mass bankruptcies, and, with that, a growing exodus of people – professionals, young people, families – seeking new opportunities.
And the issue is not just about floods. Between 2011 and 2019, more than 700 thousand Gauchos left the state. And here's the number that took me by surprise: in 2024 alone, another half a million people decided to migrate. It's a lot of people. I know this because I live here. And over the years, I have seen friends, family, and acquaintances pack up and leave. Some go to São Paulo. Others to Santa Catarina. Many simply want to escape – not from gaucho culture or identity, but from the cycle of stagnation and crisis.
So, this brings me to two questions I can't get out of my head: Why are so many gauchos abandoning their homeland? And where, exactly, are they going?
Between the 60s and 80s, Rio Grande do Sul was practically the symbol of economic success in Brazil. This was the state that pulled the country forward, fueling the economy with its production of soy and meat. We dominated essential sectors. At that time, the state's GDP per capita was at the top – among the three largest in Brazil. It was thirty percent higher than the national average.
And what's more: the literacy rate was over eighty-five percent, with an educational system that was a reference for the rest of the country. In health, the scenario was equally impressive. The life expectancy of the people of Rio Grande do Sul exceeded the Brazilian average, reflecting a quality of life that seemed unattainable in other states.
All of this made up a narrative of greatness that, unfortunately, would not last forever. In the 90s, things started to fall apart. The state, which was previously Brazil's economic locomotive, faced agricultural crises, competition from more modernized states, and growing debt. The Gaucho hegemony began to disappear.
In the 2000s, Rio Grande do Sul resisted, and some indicators were still positive. The HDI remained high, and health and education continued to be strengths. But economic growth was no longer keeping pace with the rest of the country. Even so, there were moments of resilience. In 2009, while the whole of Brazil was facing a drop in the number of jobs, the state managed to create almost eighty thousand new jobs. In 2013, we recorded growth of 8.5% in the first half of the year.
Still, challenges continued to pile up, making the future increasingly uncertain. And then came 2024. The torrential rains earlier in the year weren’t just a weather event – they were a catastrophe. A catastrophe that exposed the structural weaknesses of the state.
The floods devastated everything: cities, houses, bridges, roads. The infrastructure that sustained day-to-day life in Rio Grande do Sul simply collapsed. Entire cities were isolated. Many Gauchos had no other option but to leave everything behind and start over somewhere else.
Agriculture, which was once the driving force behind the economy of Rio Grande do Sul, suffered billions in losses. Flooded roads prevented the transportation of products, while crops and livestock were devastated. And the worst part: the state road network was the most affected. Of the 14 damaged bridges, ten were the responsibility of the state government.
The federal government, on the other hand, immediately began the recovery of the four bridges under its administration. This discrepancy further delayed logistics and increased costs for residents and business owners, who now have to resort to alternative, longer, and more expensive routes.
Meanwhile, the industry in Rio Grande do Sul is following a path that many are already calling “deindustrialization.” The lack of investment, the scarcity of innovation, and the classic Brazilian problems have ruined the sector.
In Vale dos Sinos, where I live, we were once one of the largest footwear hubs in the world. In the eighties and nineties, factories here produced shoes that were exported to all continents. But time changed things. International competition, especially from China, combined with high production costs and bureaucracy, practically destroyed the sector. Some factories closed. Others moved to cheaper areas.
And look how ironic: at the time, China hired professionals from Vale dos Sinos to teach the Chinese how to make shoes. These same professionals are now outside of China because even it has outsourced part of its production to countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia.
Today, Vale dos Sinos is trying to reinvent itself. The economy is betting on technology, education, and services. But the services sector, which has always depended on agriculture and industry, is also suffering from the drop in demand. The feeling in the state is one of uncertainty. It seems like the problems are piling up like a snowball.
And honestly, this disconnect with the state – this sense of loss – didn’t start with the 2024 rains. I’ve seen it for years. I have friends, family, and acquaintances who left Rio Grande do Sul in search of new opportunities.
But the big question remains: where are these people going? When natural tragedies happen – like Hurricane Katrina in the United States – we usually follow a pattern. First, we see solidarity. Entire communities come together to help. Then, the exodus begins: many people migrate to safer regions. And, finally, companies also move, looking for places with fewer vulnerabilities.
In Rio Grande do Sul, this cycle is nothing new. And with the floods of 2024, the exit movement only intensified. Meanwhile, Santa Catarina is emerging as one of the most attractive destinations in Brazil – especially for people from Rio Grande do Sul.
Santa Catarina is often mentioned as one of the best states to live and work, even by the UN. But it's not just the compliments that get attention; the numbers prove this reputation. In 2017, while Brazil faced an unemployment rate of 12%, Santa Catarina recorded half that. Now, at the end of 2024, with national unemployment at around 6.9%, the state remains impressive: only 3.2% unemployed.
For many Gauchos, this difference is not just statistics – it is a real opportunity for a new beginning. Santa Catarina is a few hours away by car, but crossing this border is much more than a simple trip: it is a chance to rebuild your life in a more stable place.
And it's not just the economy that attracts. The cost of living in Santa Catarina, although it varies, offers options that suit different profiles. Florianópolis and Balneário Camboriú are expensive choices, perfect for those who want modern infrastructure and a life by the sea. But cities like Joinville and Chapecó offer properties with a much more affordable cost-benefit ratio while maintaining quality of life.
Moving to Santa Catarina represents more than economic stability. For many families, it is also a lifestyle change. After years of facing crises and instability in Rio Grande do Sul, the promise of a more balanced place becomes irresistible. The flood tragedy only made the situation worse.
According to the Brazilian Institute of Planning and Taxation, around 95% of jobs in the state were impacted. Although the numbers are improving, the feeling of instability still hangs over the people of Rio Grande do Sul.
And then there is the challenge of the aging population in Rio Grande do Sul. The state has the highest proportion of elderly people in Brazil: 115 for every 100 children, according to the IBGE. This data points to a complicated future. An older population means fewer people of working age, fewer opportunities for economic growth, and – most worryingly – fewer incentives to attract investment.
This cycle creates a harsh reality: limited options and a future that seems increasingly tight. Santa Catarina, on the other hand, offers a different path. It's a place where personal effort seems to have a more guaranteed return.
And for many Gauchos, this change makes sense. A few hours on the road to visit family in Rio Grande do Sul during the holiday is still possible. But for those who choose to cross this border, it is not just about changing address. It is a decision to seek a better future, a place where economic stability and quality of life go hand in hand.
In 2024, I spent a few days on some beaches in Santa Catarina. I liked the climate, the people, the atmosphere. But what caught my attention the most was the quality of the roads, with works underway that clearly show that the state is investing in infrastructure.
And every time I see more people going there, I can't help but ask the question that keeps coming back to my mind: What will happen to my Rio Grande do Sul?
"It has improved a lot. Both in the professional area and in quality of life." These are the words of Luã Ciceri, a gaucho who, in 2016, packed his bags and left Rio Grande do Sul for Florianópolis, in search of new opportunities. Luã doesn't think about coming back. Even far from family, the choice to stay in Santa Catarina is clear.
But when the desire to leave is not just individual, when entire families decide to cross the border, this becomes a reflection of something bigger – of a reality that many in Rio Grande do Sul are facing.
The numbers tell a clear story. The drop in school enrollment is just one of the signs. In 2008, more than one million and six hundred thousand students were enrolled in elementary education in the state. By 2023, that number had plummeted to 1.2 million. There are almost four hundred thousand fewer children in schools.
And the reason? It is a combination of factors: a drop in the number of births, an increase in the number of women living alone – the highest in Brazil – and a constant exodus. More and more Gauchos are seeking a life outside the state's borders.
Even the Secretariat of Planning, Budget, and Management recognizes the problem. According to them, Rio Grande do Sul has not been able to attract – and much less retain – young people. The state may, in the future, have to “import” people to fill this gap.
And meanwhile, Santa Catarina continues to gain strength. It is almost like a shadow that pulls towards itself the talents and hopes of Rio Grande do Sul. In economic terms, the difference is glaring.
Santa Catarina leads in job creation, maintains a growing manufacturing industry, and, in tourism, had an impressive performance in 2023, having the second-best index in the country. Meanwhile, Rio Grande do Sul continues to face structural challenges. The state is mired in a public debt of almost 94 billion reais.
Even when temporary solutions emerge, such as debt suspension, implementation is slow, almost paralyzed. And then I could say that investing in small businesses and startups, inspired by successful models from countries like Scotland and Northern Ireland, could be a way out of the crisis.
I could say that investing in creating new jobs and stimulating the formation of a more dynamic local economy could even attract back some of those who left. But the truth is that these are generic happy endings with a fairy tale feel, and things are unlikely to change.
To give you an idea, at the beginning of December 2024, a storm that hit Porto Alegre caused flooding, especially in the central region, due to the large volume of rain concentrated in one hour and the lack of energy at the pumping stations. The pumps were only working with generators, and as not all of them have generators, they operated in a limited manner, around 50% of their operation, while problems in the manholes worsened the situation, despite 70% of them having already been cleaned after previous floods.
If seven months after the worst disaster that RS has experienced, little or nothing has been done, what tells me that something will actually change? Tired of this slowness and apparent lack of interest in fixing the state's problems, many Gauchos simply leave in search of a life that is anything but generic, betting on other opportunities and more favorable environments to make things happen in their lives, even if it means leaving behind something they love.
But wouldn't that be the tone of Brazil as a whole? How are things there in your state? Comment below and don't forget to tell me what you thought of this video.
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That's it for this video, a big hug and see you later.