Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse! This is your Thursday AMA premium video.
Um, let's go ahead and jump in.
So the first question: In your dubious speculation video earlier this week, you went through different narratives. Could you go over the inflation "if this, then that" narrative again?
Basically, let me share my screen here. Um, I'm not even sure honestly. Like, I'm not even sure what you're talking about. I don't... it's not that I don't believe you; it's just that I said a lot of things. I'm struggling to remember exactly what I said, but I also don't necessarily believe everything that I say.
But I would say that if this, then that... what I'm arguing here, I think, is that in the 1970s, you know, we had these waves of inflation that were separated by like four or five years. In 1972, after the first wave of inflation, you can see that it bottomed out, and then we had a second wave of inflation as we got into the post-election year.
Now, the market didn't really care about it. You can see here inflation started to go back up, and the market didn't really care about it. Then you got a big move up by inflation where it went from like 3.8% to 4.8% in a single month, and then the market sold off again.
So, like today, inflation has started to go up, and the market hasn't really cared that much. But if you were to see a big move up with inflation, then I think the market would likely not like that.
But again, the counterpoint to the comparison between now and the 1970s is that in the 1970s, during the times when inflation was going back up, the unemployment rate was going down. We've seen the opposite, right? We've seen the unemployment rate go up. So I don't really think the 1970s is even the best comparison, but it's at least something to keep in mind.
Especially, it's always possible that the unemployment rate could start going back down again, right? That could always happen as well.
When in QT? I have no idea, right? I have no idea. I mean, I would assume it'll be sometime this year, but I honestly have no idea. And it's going to depend on, obviously, the data as it comes in. As long as the markets hold up, as long as the data is not too scary, I mean, the Fed doesn't really have a strong reason to end it.
If you were to look at the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, you know, they've basically been reducing the size of their balance sheet really since like the early part of 2022. It's actually now below where it was when they had, you know, after this initial move up. Then they started to slowly go up with it. It's actually below that level now. It's getting into the sort of this initial pump of QE that occurred earlier on, like right after the pandemic started.
So, they'll keep it going a little bit longer, but if the market spooks them or something like that, then that could certainly be an easy reason to end it.
Is it safe to say that if ETH/BTC closes two weeks above its bull market, we're in the bottom end?
There's a good chance that would be the case. But we haven't actually seen that yet. Right now, it's still below the market support band.
And, you know, I think what essentially is happening is like the market is trying to hold on to the idea that maybe it's bottomed and hoping that QE returns. You have a lot of people sort of betting on that. And with QE still not yet returning, that might be the reason why it's still under the bull market support band.
But I will remind you that even in 2017, ETH/BTC stayed below the bull market support band and didn't get above it until really it was like the last week of February going into the first week of March, right? So, the week of February 27th, and then going into March, that's when ETH/BTC actually got above its bull market.
So that could still be, right, seven to eight weeks away, right? It's possible.
Could the historical risk level chart be updated to see other coins in their BTC pairs?
Yeah, we actually are working a lot right now on some of these, you know, the risk stuff, especially for all BTC pairs and whatnot. So we'll try to get you guys that stuff this quarter.
Could inflation scare the market into a selloff and trigger QE, or would QE cause more inflation?
It's not just as simple as like... I mean, look, yeah, it's true that a selloff could introduce QE, but you might not even get QE. You might just get the end of quantitative tightening, right? Like what I mean by that is like if you look at ETH/BTC in 2017, it didn't even go up with QE. The balance sheet of the Fed was actually relatively constant during that time, right?
Like the balance sheet of the Fed, if anything, was going very, very, very slightly down, but nothing, you know, it wasn't dropping nearly as quickly as it is today. So you might not even see QE come back. It might just be, you know, at some point, they might just try to level it off so that you're not getting any tightening, but it's also perhaps not to be considered easing either. It's just kind of something in between.
Can you add risk levels to other precious metals like gold?
Yeah, I think we're going to try to get a silver risk metric here in the next few weeks.
Do I believe there's going to be a final selloff in alts?
Alts always sell off, right? I mean, you know, there's no such thing as a final selloff by alts because, you know, altcoins do what they do best, and that's to bleed against Bitcoin.
But, you know, if you look at any individual altcoin, like I mean, if you look at like ADA, we talked a little bit about how this move was likely just mimicking, if anything, right, was just mimicking what it did last year.
And sure enough, it seems to be doing just that, you know, where you get sort of an initial rally, and then it just sort of sells off, right? So it seems like it could be, you know, potentially repeating something like that right now where it, you know, maybe goes back down and actually sweeps that low.
So I would argue that, you know, if you look at prior post-halving years, Bitcoin can stay weak for a lot of January.
And so, you know, if that's the case, then obviously it would not be great for altcoins. And even right now, you could see that alts are struggling.
What is your expectation for the price?
Price of what? You got to be more specific. I mean, if you're talking about Bitcoin, you know, price predictions are not really the best way to navigate the market.
Again, I think it's more so just about managing your risk, buying at low risk levels, selling at high risk levels, not really focusing too much on the price.
It's hard to know. I mean, it's possible that it could go as low as 60k. It's possible it could go much higher, right? It could go much higher into the 100s, right?
When people ask me, you know, like is something possible, what I would say is at any given point, if you want to know if it's possible, I would look at the risk levels, and that is what is theoretically possible, right?
So as low as 23k and as high as 224k. So that is what is theoretically possible. Now, chances are you're not going to see 23k this year. Chances are you're not going to see 224k this year. But those just show you kind of like what the extremes are.
You know, it makes more sense to say to maybe ignore the lowest and highest risk bands on either end. Not to say they can't happen, but say they're just less likely.
And then say, all right, what's more realistic? It's anywhere between 33k and 187k, and that kind of narrows it down a little bit more.
But realistically, you know, if you're going to go back down to the lower risk levels, oftentimes that would happen in midterm years, which would be in 2026.
So, you know, I would say, I mean, like talking about like best case scenarios, worst case scenarios normally just get me into trouble.
But, you know, it's possible to retest that, right? It's possible you retest that at some point this year. But it's also possible that, you know, you see Bitcoin go higher as the presses on, and maybe especially if we can get a reason for QE to come back.
But in the short term, and even guys, you got to remember that even when QE comes back, it doesn't mean the markets have to immediately pump, right?
I mean, last cycle when QE returned, it returned in September of 2019, and actually, you know, shortly after QE began, Bitcoin sold off for a little while. So there's no guarantee that just because QE comes back, it doesn't necessarily mean that the market has to immediately rally.
Your thoughts on the ADA/ETH pair?
Unfortunately, ADA/ETH seems to be a bleeder, right? And it just is what it is.
You know, I think that if you look at it over a long enough period of time, you would come to that same conclusion. That doesn't mean you can't make money off of it occasionally. It does get a rally up, and you can see they just had a rally up.
But I think the problem is that if you look at this over a long enough time horizon, it looks just like it's in a macro downtrend, right, with occasional spikes up.
Again, you could make money on the spikes up, but it is important to recognize that this has been a bleeder. It's possible it could turn it around at some point, but that just hasn't happened yet, right?
If you just look from one cycle to another, ADA/ETH is going to like lower valuations.
If Bitcoin drops to the breakout point, would the cycle be over in your opinion?
Not necessarily, right? You could get an example where it drops and then gets a big bounce off of that level.
And I'll show you an example, right? So the question basically is if Bitcoin were to drop back down here, would the cycle in fact be over? But you can actually look at another example. We've talked about this one a few times, like the ADA/BTC example, and see that, you know, sometimes you can get that, right?
Where it breaks out, and then it tested it again in November, right? So it was three months later, and then it still got a bigger bounce up.
So you could get a situation where it does do something like that, but it doesn't even necessarily mean the cycle has to be over.
Can we please review Bitcoin days since percentage declined?
Sure! So if you look here at days since percentage declined and you look at the number of days since Bitcoin has had a 30% drop, technically speaking, Bitcoin has had a 30% drop recently.
If you look last year, you'll notice that it did drop 33-34%. But the reason it's not picked up on that chart is because that chart is just looking at daily closes. And by the daily close, it was only down about 26-27%.
So if you're just looking at daily closes, it's been about 793 days since Bitcoin had a 30% drop. My guess is that we will see a 30% drop this year. Oftentimes in post-halving years, volatility can pick up in both directions.
So it would be my base case that we do see Bitcoin get a daily or a 30% drop on the daily this year. But if you look at like days since a 50% drop, you can see in 2017 there was a period where it went over 1100 days before getting a 50% drop.
And it's possible that we are repeating something like that, right? We're already at almost day 800. But again, I mean, even if Bitcoin were to drop back into the 60s or 70s, that still wouldn't even be qualified. It wouldn't be considered a 50% drop, right? It'd be like a, you know, 40% drop or 30-40% drop depending on how low.
Someone's 50% cash, so they deploy after the unemployment rate on Friday or wait for some confirmation the bull run has started?
Well, I mean, I think sort of the first thing to remember is that, you know, this has been a quantitative tightening bull market for the last couple of years. So you want to think about like where do you put the money? Obviously, Bitcoin has been the better play for a long time.
It certainly could change if QE comes back, but I would also... my argument would be that, you know, you're essentially attempting to try to time the market, and usually that doesn't really work out as well as you think it's going to.
And so I think the right answer is to just kind of remember that no one knows what's going to happen, right? Like I don't know what's going to happen on Friday. You know, the unemployment rate could come in at 4.4, and the market could go up, or it could come in at 4.1, and the market could go down.
Or the reverse could happen. It could come in at 4.4, and the market goes down, or it comes in at 4.1, and the market goes up. There's always a narrative to explain.
I would argue that the better solution is just to DCA at a risk level that you're comfortable with rather than worry too much about trying to time the market.
You know, one way to think about it is if it doesn't matter in a year, it doesn't matter today, right? So like if in a year you're not going to really care whether you bought it, you know, today or on Friday or next week or next month, if you don't really care about that, then I wouldn't spend a lot of time thinking about it.
I would just do whatever makes sense for you and DCA at risk levels that are comfortable for you. Okay, that's my suggestion.
Update on Tesla?
Yeah, Tesla had a little bit of a pullback recently. I mean, I have my position that I got. You know, and just so everyone's clear, you know, I picked some up here and here. Or yeah, I think I mentioned right here. Yeah, right here, it was a pretty good buy. Pretty good buy here as well.
That's what I said. And I mean, I remember picking some up just a few weeks ago, and now it's up about 2x just since that buy. And right now, I think, you know, what I said was, you know, if it goes back into the mid-300s or below 300, it's probably a good opportunity.
It hasn't gotten there yet. I would keep an eye on the bull market support band because, you know, a lot of times when it gets these rallies, occasionally it will check back in with the bull market.
I mean, sometimes you have to wait a little while for it to happen, but currently, the bull market support band range is from like 309 to 327. You see it back there? It probably would bounce off of that level.
What are your thoughts about tomorrow's meeting?
Um, what meeting? The FOMC meeting isn't until the 28th and 29th. The Bank of Japan isn't until like the 26th. So, um, I don't know. I don't really follow the news that much. You're going to have to be a little bit clear on what you're talking about.
Chance of a big drop on the S&P?
Uh, could be considered a soft landing. Yeah, like I mean if you had like a 10-20% drop in the S&P and then they just turn the printers back on, I think you could argue that's a soft landing.
That would be kind of like, you know, the S&P divided by M2 idea. Like if it just gets rejected off of that level and then it like falls back down here, you know, it might seem scary, but I still think that would just be a soft landing.
For someone who hasn't picked up TLT, would now be a good opportunity to get positioned?
If you want to get TLT, I think, you know, you slowly DCA into it. But I would argue that when you look at TLT historically, it'll double bottom, right?
So maybe that's what you're looking for, right? Where it kind of gets these double, sometimes even like triple bottoms. Sometimes it like sweeps the low, so it kind of seems like maybe that's what's happening right now.
So, you know, the closer it gets to here, the more likely it is going to be a good opportunity to pick some up.
How to best track inflation?
If copper, then why is it not going higher right now?
Um, so I think you're talking about this chart we have on the workbench: US inflation versus copper.
Yeah, it looks like, you know, copper has gone up recently, and inflation hasn't really tracked with it. I think one of the reasons that inflation hasn't tracked with it is because the unemployment rate has gone up.
And again, remember, normally wage inflation is a big driver of overall inflation. And so maybe copper is just kind of, you know, it's deviating from what it normally does. Normally, it leads the overall inflation rate pretty well, and maybe there's a delay, right?
Maybe there's a delay on it. I mean, you can see that previously there are times where copper goes up, and then headline inflation continues to go higher even after copper tops.
But I think the biggest thing to look for with inflation is just following the labor market and seeing the weaknesses or strengths there.
If in wealth creation mode, your thoughts on 50% Bitcoin, 35% ETH, and the rest alts?
Yeah, I mean, I think that's fine if you're in wealth creation mode. I think your percentages are okay as long as you're willing to, you know, weather storms for, you know, maybe for a couple weeks or so.
I do think ETH/BTC will go up this year. I would think all BTC pairs will also go up, but there are cases that all BTC pairs go up while Bitcoin USD goes down.
But usually, I mean, last cycle that didn't happen until QE returned.
Do you set alerts on any stock or crypto so that when it touches the bull mark, you get a notification?
Uh, no. I mean, I feel like I just look at the charts so much. I generally know where the things... like if there's something I'm interested in, like I'll know if it's close to it or not, generally speaking.
But I mean, I just check them enough, right? This is like what I do.
No, it's not.
Based on the 10-year and DXY charts, do you see an inflection point in the S&P and Bitcoin?
At what point will you feel Bitcoin's market structure is broken for the bull market?
I would argue that if Bitcoin were to fall below sort of the breakout line from last year, then I think the bull market would certainly be over, right?
So like if it were to fall below that, then it's probably over, and then you're just looking at a left-translated cycle, right?
Like if Bitcoin drops here, bounces, everyone's like, "All right, now to the moon," and then it just kind of rolls over and goes down like that, and then the cycle's probably over.
But again, like I would say hope for the best, plan for the worst. I mean, over the long haul, it's better to be more optimistic than pessimistic.
But that doesn't mean that you shouldn't at least consider some of the other scenarios.
Are you familiar with Paly about global equity and its impact on the cycle? What are your thoughts?
Um, I'm honestly not that familiar with it, but I would assume that it's, you know, looking at the rate of change of the money supply, and I think that is probably what he's tracking.
And, um, yeah, I mean, look, there's no denying that liquidity has important impacts on the cycle, right? Absolutely no denying that.
And I'm sure he is aware of that too. I think I've heard him, you know, I think he's a big proponent of that as well. I just don't know exactly what his thoughts are at the current time, so I couldn't tell you that.
But, um, I mean, I think he has some, you know, good opinions that are worthwhile to sort of check in on and see what he's thinking.
MATIC/BTC 2025 outlook, possible oscillator and target in toshi, please.
So with MATIC/BTC, you know, I think that the question is going to remain: can it get above the bull mark? Is it trying to set up a double bottom here?
Is the question. I think what's happening is that like all BTC pairs got this initial bounce sort of in anticipation of QE, and then QE just still hasn't returned.
Now they're like struggling because it never really came back, and now I think you're basically seeing market participants sort of hold out for the hope that it will.
And if it does, then you might see MATIC/BTC just put in a double bottom. If it doesn't, then it's always possible it could just go to a lower low.
Base case for the euro/US dollar over the next six months?
So I was certainly bearish on the euro against the US dollar a few months ago, but I would argue my base case would be that it puts in a higher low would be my base case.
Okay, so this low from September 2022, I would assume that it's going to put in a higher low.
But I, you know, I certainly could be wrong about that idea. We have seen this pattern so many places, right? Where you have the higher low structure, it then falls below that and then bounces back up and then sort of bleeds down.
ETH/BTC did that same thing, right? If you could think about like the ETH/BTC chart, it did the same exact thing.
But I don't think it's going to get back down here. It might just do something like that where it just kind of slowly bleeds out until the macro improves.
If the euro is dropping against the US dollar, that's a headwind for risk assets.
We add an Nvidia risk metric?
I think the goal is to add a lot of risk metrics this quarter.
Is there a bigger altcoin reckoning coming that can result in lower USD pair prices?
Yeah, like it's possible. If you look at all BTC pairs, I mean, even in 2017, all BTC pairs found themselves at 0.25 even as late as October of 2017.
Fortunately, back then, it was while Bitcoin was going up, so all USD pairs were doing pretty well.
But yeah, I mean, there could always be another sell-off by alts. I think the one thing to consider is, you know, like... and I'm sort of picking on ADA because it kind of seems to be like kind of an in-between one where it gets these rallies, but it also sells off kind of with the market pretty.
I mean, like it's sort of in between. It looks like it's in this expanding broadening wedge, kind of like all BTC pairs are.
And so last cycle, it was eventually able to break through the wedge, right? This cycle, it has not done that yet.
Now, last cycle, it didn't break through the wedge until right January of 2021. So, you know, you could argue, right? You could argue that maybe it's just kind of doing that same thing right now, right?
But if it's not and it just gets rejected up here again, then, you know, and then it just bleeds back down here again by Q3, then absolutely, right?
Then you really... that would be very unfortunate for the altcoin market.
Is Alibaba a good buy?
Because China's going through... China's been struggling recently.
But I was... my thought process originally was, you know, sort of come up here, sweep this high, come back down, and form a higher low.
I could be wrong about the higher low, but that was at least sort of my base case.
I think like, you know, within a couple... within a few years, this is probably going to be seen as a good price.
But I can't really say in the short term.
What are your thoughts on the British P making a double bottom today? Euro already made it. Could it spell into a USD rally?
Do you think the USD rally will continue?
Um, I honestly don't really track that one as much.
But, but yeah, I don't know. I'm not really seeing a double bottom. I mean, I guess you could... you're arguing that maybe this is a double bottom and it's just sweeping the low.
Yeah, that's possible. I don't really expect the dollar rally to continue for too much longer.
I think it might continue for, you know, but I think it'll top out this quarter, right? If it falls 2017, it would top out any time.
If it, you know, but it's always possible it could go on a little bit longer into the quarter.
Do I think CRB/BTC put on a double bottom?
The reality is, is like until you get QE, there's always going to be a chance that these things just sort of bleed back down.
And, you know, with this kind of stuff, this is a good example of looking at the pound against the dollar, how sometimes you can kind of sweep a low and then get a big rally, right?
So you could easily see that on the dollar on the pound versus the dollar, which would send the dollar back down.
But the problem with this is really a lot of times what you really want to see is like a double bottom or a higher low, not where you're going below the low.
There's a lot of times where like that happened last year on ETH/BTC, where it just went slightly lower and then it bounced.
But then eventually it just came back down and put in a lower low.
What you really want to see is like a, you know, one like this where it doesn't actually go below that low, right? Where it just kind of tests the candle body.
And so for something like ETH/BTC, ideally it wouldn't go too much below that, right? You don't really want to see it going back down there because not that it could still bounce, but if it were to come down here, then the implication is that while it may bounce, it could still just eventually lead to a lower low once again.
Can you give your opinion on ADA/BTC?
You know, until QE returns, I think you always have to be open-minded that it could just continue to bleed.
The reality is that like I know a lot of people sort of feel like they're getting left behind on all BTC pairs at various phases of the cycle.
But when you look at the chart like this, you know, you can kind of see what's been happening, and that's just sort of a slow drop down.
The good news is that it's leveling out, right? Like it's not... it doesn't look nearly as bad as it used to.
The bad news is that it really hasn't gone through a period yet where it has clearly put in sort of a macro bottom.
This could be a low, right? But it's not as obvious as that one there where it was holding that low for several months, if that makes sense.
Someone says they're afraid the cycle peak is in. What do you think?
There's always a chance, guys. You know, in the 70s, you had left-translated cycles.
I'm not saying it should be your base case, but there's a chance that that's the case.
I don't think it's like necessarily the highest probability, but you know, picking the exact top is nearly impossible, right? And the market doesn't know yet, right?
A lot of that will depend on future data that comes in.
We got a MEA update. A lot of the miners have struggled recently. They also struggled last cycle after rate cuts for a little while.
If anything, they're doing better this cycle than last cycle.
But what I think I would argue is follow this higher low trend line here. Let's look at it maybe on a regular scale and see if it looks any different.
But I would argue to follow this trend line. If it breaks down, my guess would be that it forms a higher low and then gets a big bounce. That would be my guess.
Same idea with Clean Spark. You know, this is one of those things where like I think it makes sense to have some exposure, like kind of like maybe like one-third.
And then like if it breaks support and then does something like this, that would probably be a higher low, and then it would get a big bounce up.
Or if it just sort of breaks through the bull market support and holds it as support and continues higher, then you could like increase your position.
But that's kind of my argument right now for this kind of stuff. And there's plenty of arguments where you can kind of see the market do similar things.
Tesla was certainly a good example of that this past year where it was putting in these higher lows and eventually broke down, put in a macro higher low, and then got a big move up.
Is there a scenario for QT ending without a big drop in the S&P?
Please talk about historical times. QT isn't... we don't have a lot of data, guys, for QT because, I mean, like it's not like it's been around forever.
But I mean, I guess there's always a scenario where that happens, but it would probably require a pretty bad labor market print that would somehow lead to the market going up and not down.
And maybe the market would go up because, you know, it's on the back of the idea that you're going to get a lot of like rate cuts and QE, so the market isn't as spooked.
But I do think the problem with that is that the Fed's going to be worried about sort of a second wave of inflation.
So I feel like you would probably see some type of spook and, you know, spooky thing happen in the market for the Fed to really want to end QT.
Is there an ambition for ITC to add more European and Asian data to the site in the future?
Yes, I think we're planning on doing that this year.
Could I chart the WGMI ETF against the Russell and Bitcoin? Where is it going?
I don't... is that one on TradingView?
Um, okay, it is.
So it looks like it kind of looks like it's in a wedge, right? It sort of looks like it's in one of these real, like kind of macro wedges.
Usually, ascending wedges like this break down eventually, but I mean, again, like that doesn't mean that it couldn't slowly grind higher until the end of the year and then break down, right?
So yeah, that's probably what I would say. I would say it's probably going to eventually break down out of the wedge, but it can still be six to 12 months away.
And it's also possible that it actually breaks up first, fakes out, then breaks down. A lot of times you'll see that with wedges where, like, you know, when like SOL/ETH is a good example of that, where like, you know, you get this wedge and it like eventually breaks up, and then it breaks down.
Thoughts on the AI sector in crypto?
I don't really have any strong opinions on it. I mean, like, look, any cycle, whatever the narrative is going to be, crypto is going to latch onto that narrative.
So my guess is that anything that's just kind of putting AI in the name of its coin is probably going to be overvalued.
But I don't... you know, they don't necessarily have to sell off immediately.
But I would say they're probably trading for a lot higher than whatever their fair value is if they're just trying to run with the AI narrative, especially if they're not actually implementing anything along that nature.
What indicators would you be looking to start taking profits?
I again, again, I would just say the risk metric.
Um, you're saying excluding the risk metric? I just stick to the risk metric.
Beyond that, you could look at other indicators, potentially like the P-Cycle top. But remember, I wouldn't look at it assuming that the P-Cycle top's going to trigger because if you look at like the moving average division, every cycle is in fact a lower high.
So if you extrapolate that out, it might be around 0.9 right now. It's sitting at around 6.
So if you see this go up to 0.n, that would probably be a good reason. Other things could be things like the RSI, although the RSI is dubious at best.
But if you were to look at something like a monthly RSI, you know, if you ever do see the monthly RSI back up at that level up here, that'd probably be a good reason to get out.
And also if you see the two-week RSI kind of at a similar level once again, which it already went to back at 73k, but we just thought that was a mid-cycle top, kind of like 2013.
And then, of course, Bitcoin went higher since then, so it was... you could look at things like that.
You could also look at something called the terminal price. So if you look at the terminal price, you can see that, you know, historically, Bitcoin has topped out around the time that it gets to that.
The counterpoint is if you look at price divided by the metric, it looks like maybe it's putting in lower highs.
So I wouldn't necessarily wait until it hits one, but that's another metric that you can in fact look at.
Do you ever change up strategy away from risk levels for a narrative?
Uh, Howard New Commerce Secretary has hundreds of millions of USD exposure to Bitcoin?
No, I don't really look at that stuff because I don't really think that stuff matters.
Chainlink odds in 2025?
The thing with Chainlink is you just kind of got to go to its BTC pair to try to figure out what's going to happen. And so far, it hasn't really been able to change anything.
I'm watching it because I own some Chainlink. I'd like to see LINK hold. LINK/BTC hold this level. If you can hold this level, then I would get optimistic on it.
If it just falls below the bull market support band, then that would, you know, be very unfortunate because it would just kind of be the same old thing.
But I would watch LINK/BTC. If LINK/BTC can hold the bull market support band, then it's probably a good thing for 2025.
If unemployment comes in low, then the market's up. But if unemployment is low, no QE, so the market's down.
This is again, it's one of those things where like sometimes good news is bad news, and sometimes good news is good news.
Um, that's why there's a narrative to explain anything. If the unemployment rate comes in low, you could argue the market could do either thing, right? It could sell off, it could go up.
The reason you would assume it goes up is because, hey, labor market's okay. Why doesn't Bitcoin go up?
If the labor market comes in high, then you could argue that that'll lead to QE, so the market might like that too.
But again, if the market, if it comes in too high, then the argument also could very well be, well, what if you have a recession?
So again, like there's going to be a lot of narratives. It's hard to know exactly how the market's going to react.
Um, it kind of seems like the market's selling off in anticipation of the labor market data, so I wouldn't be that surprised to see it, you know, get a very quick reaction whenever the labor market data comes out based on what it's going to do.
I mean, it seems like Bitcoin's a little worried about something with the labor market data.
The goal is to accumulate as much Bitcoin as possible. Other than buying Bitcoin, is there another way to accumulate?
Buying double bottom?
Yeah, I mean, if you're going to buy alts, the goal is to use them to increase the Satoshi valuation of your portfolio.
So like if you buy alts, I would convert them back to Bitcoin, you know, before, you know, probably before February of 2026.
When you say MATIC/BTC will be higher next year, does that also mean MATIC/USD will be higher?
That's going to depend on Bitcoin/USD. If Bitcoin/USD is still at the current levels, then yes, probably MATIC would be a lot higher.
If Bitcoin's half, you know, 50% lower, then MATIC would not do as well.
Speculation on the bottom for Bitcoin this cycle?
We likely go below 100k.
Um, we're already below 100k, and I do think whatever the macro bottom is in 2026 will likely be below 100k.
What's your take on influencers already calling for a top?
What are the chances we get one without all indicators firing?
Yeah, I mean, like it's... if you get a left-translated peak, it's possible, right?
And I think, you know, that's one of the things where like if you go back to, um, like inflation, right? If you go back and look at inflation in the 1970s, right? You had left-translated peaks where it topped out early on, where the market topped out early on in the cycle.
You see these like December, you know, January '73, um, November, December '68, right? That was the end of the election year or the early part of the post-election year.
So it's always possible that that happens.
What we've seen so far is a right-translated peak.
AVAX/SOL double bottom?
Are you talking about the AVAX valuation against SOL?
Um, yeah, maybe. Maybe because see, the nice thing about this one is that like you can see the low here was not a lower low, right?
And it held support at the candle body. So yeah, it's possible. See if it can hold the bull market support band, and if it can, then you're probably onto something.
Someone says they're afraid we've already peaked, and we might be heading into a bigger bear market. What do you think?
That just sort of goes back to what I just said, right? Like if, if you know, if you do have a left-translated cycle peak, then that's possible.
But again, like the counterpoint, right? If you look at QQQ, even if that is the case, right? Even if that is the case, like what the QQQ did back in March 2000, even in that case, it still got like, you know, it dropped from 120 to 60, and then it still got a nice rally up until Q3 of that year.
So even if it is a left-translated peak, it's not going to be... it's probably not going to be obvious until Q4.
Do I think quantum computing is something to worry about for people holding Bitcoin?
Not really. I don't right now. I could be wrong, but I don't.
If the top for the cycle is 120k, what percentage drop would you expect to see after that?
70 to 80%, probably.
How can you trade the Bitcoin dominance chart?
I heard you mention it before in Telegram.
There's some exchanges where you can trade it. Like, I actually think you can trade it on Binance. If you look at... if you go to Binance and you look at tickers, I think Bitcoin dominance is actually one of them.
If inflation returns, would it mean the cycle's over in your opinion?
Yeah, it could be. If inflation starts to go back up quickly.
Thoughts on OM/BTC?
Okay, I mean, like this is one that's just been on an uptrend for a long time. So I would be a little cautious with it because, you know, some of the times you'll just basically see them sweep their prior highs.
Some of the times, you know, and I've gotten in trouble for this before, is I'll sort of assume that it'll just be a double top, and then you'll get something like INJ/BTC where it like, you know, it looks like it's going to be a double top like that, and then it just gets a big move up and then sells off.
So I would be careful about it because it seems like it's getting pretty extended.
And so I think the base case is to say, well, like it's probably just a double top. But if it follows INJ/BTC, you could get, you know, one sort of final rally and then sort of a macro sell-off.
Why would QE return?
There's still a lot of liquidity in the markets and interest rates not close to zero.
I think the only way it's going to... I think the only way you're going to get QE to return is if you get a larger sell-off in the markets.
I think the initial claims data just came in, so I'm not really sure. It came in at 201k, so it came in pretty low. It's pretty low.
Do you have an opinion on Snowflake? Could a scenario like the pound here develop there?
Greetings.
Um, I honestly don't really have an opinion on it. I can try to look more into it, and maybe you can ask me again next week.
But I don't really have an opinion on it, and I don't really want to, you know, talk out, you know, just randomly talk about it and pretend like I do.
So I will get back to you on it.
Isn't it a KNE and toe pattern on the Litecoin chart?
I think you're probably just sort of talking about the Head, Shoulders, Knees, and Toes.
Um, I don't know about Litecoin. I mean, like it... you know, it's a macro bleeder.
I think the sort of the optimistic scenario right now is that it's still above its bull market support band. So if it can stay above that, then, you know, there's no issue.
Did I have a good time at Sailor's party?
Yeah, it was a lot of fun. I love to meet a lot of people.
Social risk update, please.
Um, when we had the TikTok, I, you know, I asked you guys for people to track, and I feel like you... no one really had anything.
I think maybe a lot of you guys are like me because you don't really care about TikTok. I mean, like how many of you guys honestly... I'm like curious, like how many people actually watch TikTok?
I mean, I know it's a popular thing, and I know a lot of people watch it, but I'm like curious how many of us are in crypto.
And I mean, I know a lot of us are, you know, male between the ages of 18 and 45. Like how many... like what percentage of those people are actually watching TikTok?
I don't know. I know the younger generation is watching it more, but I also don't really know how many of us are even there.
I feel like people want to track it because they know that there are people that watch it. When I ask people for opinions on who do I actually track, I didn't really feel like a lot of people had a great answer.
Social risk, you know, all it did was sweep the 0.4 risk level and then come back down. It's getting a little bit of a bounce here in the short term.
Let's see why.
YouTube subs, it looks like kind of got a little bit of a bounce right there. YouTube views bounced a little bit. Analysts on Twitter, yeah, a lot of them are sort of bouncing.
But the thing is, social risk is still not really going above the 0.4 risk.
Update on Nvidia?
Nvidia actually just put on a new all-time high, I believe.
Yeah, look, I think with Nvidia, you know, I would say as long as it's above its bull market support band, it's hard to be the person calling for a crash.
But if it loses that, then I would certainly be on the lookout for it.
What countries have I been to in Europe?
Um, I've been to Austria, and I've been to the Czech Republic. I think that's it.
I mean, I was in an airport in Belgium, but that's it.
I've also been to Uganda, and where else?
I mean, I've been to all over, you know, North America, like Canada, Mexico, tons of the Caribbean islands.
I'm sure I'm forgetting some places, but...
ETH vs. MATIC, which will perform better?
I don't know. That's a really tough call.
You know, if you look at like the MEA/ETH valuation, it looks like it honestly looks like they just really haven't done much of anything over the last two and a half years.
If anything, it looks like MEA occasionally gets these big spikes against ETH, but it's so hard to know exactly when that's going to happen.
We had a spike in April of 2021 and in December of 2017.
So, you know, normally at the end of a cycle, MEA spikes up against ETH and then it sells hard as ETH then rallies.
How low can ETH go in the short-term to medium-term base case?
Um, I think that, you know, it kind of seems like it's still following this pattern from, you know, from last year where it, you know, where it basically like goes up and sweeps this high and then it comes back down to this level, right?
So you can kind of see what I'm talking about: like high, high, sweeps this low, right? Goes down to this low and then goes back up to that high and then comes back down.
So look, I think that worst-case scenario, and the only reason I'm mentioning it is because it's always there and it never happened, right?
Worst-case scenario is that it goes home to the regression band.
But, you know, I would have said the same thing two years ago, and that never actually happened.
So that's worst-case scenario, where it like, you know, falls below the higher low structure and then gets a big bounce out of it and puts in an all-time high.
That's worst-case scenario. It doesn't have to go that low. It could just go back down here and then bounce, right?
But I would say worst-case is back down there and then a big bounce out, kind of like Tesla's.
Is it going to... do you feel Bitcoin will break above the trend line on the log price?
The deviation from... oh, log, the natural log of the price over the 20-week EMA?
Um, I don't think it's going to break above it this cycle, no.
I don't already provided an update on the Clean Spark.
As far as entries, I mean, I think like, you know, sort of like one of those things, having like, you know, one-third entry can make sense.
And then if it breaks down, maybe 2/3, and then if it breaks down a third time into a higher macro higher low, then maybe the rest.
Looking at Bitcoin monthly chart for December and January, do you think the cycle top is...?
You know, the monthly chart doesn't really look that great if we're being honest, you know?
Especially if you look out on a regular scale. If you look out on a regular scale, it doesn't really look that great, you know?
But you could also argue, you know, here in 2021, it didn't really look that great, and then somehow later on, it went to a higher high.
If you look at it on a log scale, it barely looks like anything, you know? In fact, it doesn't look even as bad as what happened over here.
But yeah, I mean, I would certainly watch that because that could be... I mean, like if we're being honest, like that doesn't really look that great because you got these like long sort of topping tails or whatever they call them way up here.
And so that's why it's at least why I think you're kind of... we're getting that January post-halving correction at the very least.
Can we look at top predictions?
There, two and a half log lines get us to 140k.
Well, it's going to depend on when, right? It depends on when.
So if you look at the rainbow for the logarithmic progression rainbow for Bitcoin, normally we drop two and a half log lines down from one cycle to another.
So half one, two, we're already above that, right? I believe half one, two, we're already above that.
But the caveat is that last cycle, we also only dropped two at one point, and then the final cycle top was two and a half.
So we're above it now, but you have to remember that if we get a right-translated cycle, then, you know, where's that going to be by the end of 2025?
And by the end of 2025, it could be, you know, a little bit higher than where the price currently is right now, like maybe you'd be around 120, something like that.
If it's just two log lines down, then that's basically where we are right now.
Okay, Japan will raise the interest rates. If they raise three times, which means the market crashed three times?
Yes, they raised rates previously, and if they raise them again, like, I mean, they raised them in July, they raised them again, then yeah, like it probably would lead to some unwinding of the carry trade.
ITC roadmap and plans for 2025?
Right now, we're trying to get some of the risk level stuff out. Is the focus to improve the app to improve the risk metric notifications?
Um, I'd like to get more worldwide macro data and not just the United States.
Has your base case for all BTC pairs changed?
Not really. I mean, I think that they could still drop to 0.25, but I do think they will go up in 2025.
It's just that they don't have to go up immediately.
All right, guys, I got to get going. We're going to be doing the NFA live stream here in just about 15 minutes or so.
But I do appreciate you guys tuning in, and I will see you guys next time. Bye!