Transcription
Bitcoin, where are we in the rally? Are we overbought yet? Uh, no. No, we're near overbought. So you guys are like, "When's the top? When do I sell?" Calm the down. Cycle tops finder. This spells calm the down all over it. Just hold, do nothing. Stop PTSD. Oh my God, oh my God, oh my God, oh my God, I'm going to lose everything.
In the latest episode of Raul Pal, the journeyman, we explore how global liquidity and potential Fed rate cuts could shape Bitcoin's price action. Raul Pal shares his predictions for Bitcoin reaching $100,000 and discusses the influence of central bank policies on the broader cryptocurrency market. At the time of this discussion, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $90,000, reflecting a 1% increase over the last 24 hours and a 37% gain in the past 30 days.
Before diving deeper into this fascinating conversation, make sure to like, subscribe, and share this channel. Now, let's hear more from R. Pal, the one that matters.
We've started the banana zone. You can see it breaking out on the chart. We ain't even accelerated yet. Lots more to come. It's banana city lies ahead in the banana zone. Elon is sending a rocket to Mars with bananas on it. What more do you need? We've got the institutions buying, we've got the ETFs, we've got regulations changing. Chill the out. Do nothing. Hold your bag. If you're new to the game, get in now. Don't wait too late because too late will be too late. So just do your best.
This, my friends, is the banana zone. This is when we've had eight months of consolidation. You've all lost your minds, and then the simple God candle arrives, and suddenly we feel good. Lord Fishnu blesses us with the God candle, and we can all go about our business thinking we're the smartest people in the world, but we're not really. It's actually driven by global liquidity.
You've all seen this chart before. Every time global liquidity breaks out, it goes through this consolidation pattern. As liquidity tightens, it breaks out. Crypto breaks out with it. Now, global liquidity is contracting right now, but it did break out to a new high. It's expected to break out going forward, and I'll show you that in a second.
So we're at the point where crypto does really well, which is the banana zone. Crypto follows global liquidity and does it really well. It's got an 87.5% correlation. Global liquidity is forecast by our models at Global Macro Investor to keep going forward. Global liquidity comes in these seasons: spring, summer, fall, winter. Again, I've covered these a lot. We are in summer. If you look at the summer periods of that weird mustard orange, we always have a strong market in liquidity.
So that's the basement of currency that makes our number go up. Our number go up is Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the benchmark asset. And again, we go further out the risk curve. Late summer and fall is all about the risk curve. We'll come on to that. But if you look at the buster periods, it's always gone up in summer. In fact, so has the Nasdaq. All risk assets always go up in election years. Same thing. Presidential election cycle, all the same thing.
And then in fall, we tend to have a good rally, and then we top out eventually. Twice it's been at the end of the year; once it's been kind of towards the end of the year with that weird double top pattern, which I don't think will be repeated. But everyone has PTSD. For all you who have PTSD, because once it didn't extend, everyone's like, "Oh my God, I need to sell early. I need to sell early." I get it. I get it. I get it. I will help you with this. You'll see some of the things, the indicators that will help you. I will try and get you to get that right.
I didn't get it right either. I bought call options at the high, expecting to go. I mean, luckily it was only 5% of my portfolio. I get trolled on Twitter endlessly, like, "He went max long at ETH at the high." No, I didn't. I bought call options, 5% of my portfolio, failed miserably. But I'll do my best to help. And again, I can't promise anything.
Global M2, another indicator of private sector liquidity, Bitcoin, and that very good. We're having a little correction now. I don't think it comes back to $80,000, but who knows? But either way, it's doing exactly what it's supposed to be doing, even better. GMI total global liquidity 10, we lead. It's been spot on, kids. Spot on. Will it always be spot on? No idea. But it tells us that we should be early to mid-December, hit $100,000, and then have a bit of a correction. That makes sense because a lot of people square their positions, take profits, etc., particularly now that the institutions are there. They do their rebalancing.
So then let's say we'd have a 20% pullback from, I don't know, $100,000 back to $80,000, and then you have the face-ripping rally as everybody comes in with the fresh pinl at the beginning of the year. By kind of the first week of January, we just start ripping, and it becomes an unbi period of the banana zone. This happened last year, actually.
So Bitcoin halving seasons, we're in the pinky one at the bottom. It's now in line with the 2016-2017 halving, which is, I think, the most likely outcome, and dragging behind the previous halving because the liquidity was front-end loaded because of the pandemic, and then back-end it got taken out early. This time around, it's more normal. It's very similar to the 2016 cycle where liquidity was given by the Chinese, and the US didn't add an enormous amount of liquidity. Very similar this time around, trading very similar to that time.
Here is that cycle versus today's cycle, and as you can see, very, very similar. As we just heard, R. Pal delved into the impact of global liquidity on Bitcoin's price. Now, let's explore his insights on how potential Fed rate cuts and central bank policies could drive Bitcoin to new highs.
Let's hear what Raul Pal has to say. Bitcoin seasonality, blah blah blah, up bananas. Bitcoin last year versus this year has been playing out very similarly. Bananas. Ethereum now versus the previous periods is following the last cycle in Bitcoin. Now, whether it gets to the target here, $20,000 ETH, who the knows? It doesn't really matter, but directionally, you can see what happens. ETH should accelerate from here. I'm pretty confident that it will.
The other thing is back to the macro because the macro drives everything. The Institute of Supply Manager survey, the ISM, that's the guide to the business cycle. You know how much money is your business earning, how much money are you earning? It's all hidden in that thing, and it's still low, which is why a lot of us feel like, "Oh, the economy is not really working yet." But the forward-looking financial conditions, which is based on rates and the dollar and oil prices, are forward-looking and very positive for the business cycle.
So we should see a lot of kind of economic activity and feel-good factor within ourselves ahead. So that's very important because it drives altcoin season. We care about altcoin season. CU, that's when you make the big bucks. Altcoin season, here's altcoins' percentage of Bitcoin's total market cap. We are likely to follow the ISM. As the old ISM I've shown you is going to pick up, well, what we're going to see is altcoins' dominance rising massively and Bitcoin dominance falling, allowing us to make a lot of money in the smaller stuff rather than Bitcoin.
For me, the bets are Solana and Sui, but you will choose your own, whatever that may be, and that's fine. I don't want to argue about what tokens are what here. I'll leave that to you, but don't go out too much out of your ski tips, out of the risk curve. Bitcoin, Solana, everything else is more speculative. Remember that.
So even when I talk about Sui, and you know I'm on the board of Sui, and so I am shilling it, but I'm actually not shilling it because I actually care about buying it in the open market myself because I think it outperforms everything. You still shouldn't, if you're not a professional and you don't know what you're doing, for God's sake, don't overweight this stuff too much. I don't want you to mess it up because I mentioned Sui a couple of times. Do not do that.
Altcoins as a percentage of whether they're outperforming Bitcoin, blah blah blah. No, not yet. We're just starting. We had the basing pattern. Now we're going to start. It might be a bit more chopping around, but alt season is here. That's banana's own signature. Crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin and ETH is breaking out. We should see a gigantic acceleration. Look at the acceleration we had back in 2020. It just exploded from $80 billion to a trillion dollars, and we will see something more extraordinary this time, I believe.
So let's look a bit of price action just because you want to know what's happening. Bitcoin, banana on banana on Solana. Banana hasn't broken the all-time high properly yet. It's kind of messing around, but the all-time high is higher. But banana central, Solana versus Bitcoin. So we showed you the Bitcoin chart looks great. Look at the Solana chart. It's been stable, but it's been going up since October 2023 or December 2023. It's been outperforming Bitcoin. It's the bet I've had from that period, and it's been a lucky great bet.
Solana on-chain activity is huge. The applications are being built. It's got everybody's attention. This is a wedge pattern. It will break, and it will wildly outperform Bitcoin in the back half of the cycle, the alt season. So that's the one thing to notice. My other bet, and I haven't talked about this publicly, and I haven't done anything publicly really on Pro Real Vision, Pro Macro yet, or even GMI because I've just noticed this chart pattern.
This is Sui against Solana. This is one holy mother of God inverted head and shoulders. If this actually breaks, then we've got a gigantic move in Sui versus Sol. So that tells you if it breaks this, then Sui is the chosen one. You know, that's my hunch, and I'm now thinking, do I, and I'm more of a professional risk-taker, move more of my assets into this? I do not urge you all to do that because R talked about it. It's speculative because it's early stage. It hasn't got full adoption. There are a lot of caveats. You'll all go, "Oh yeah, but they've got lockups." Yes, we all know. It's all public. That's known knowns. It has a low free float, so it goes up well in the bull market and goes down a lot in the bear market. But I like it. I like what they're building. I like what's going on. I am on the board.
But anyway, I look at that chart. Nothing I can do about that chart. Me, R, shilling it makes nothing. That chart is that chart. That chart makes me very interested. Doge, this is another one that's in my portfolio, published in Pro Macro and Global Macro Investor. It's a killer. Doge, like clockwork, captures the attention. Like clockwork, and every time this part happens, it goes bananas. So Doge probably has a long way to run. That's in my 10% bucket of speculative stuff.
The other one is obviously Lord Fishnu himself from the smoking chicken fish. This chart is the giraffe looking over a zoo fence. It is one of the most famous technical analysis patterns of all time because obviously, Gold Fishnu made it so. And if that is the case and it breaks the top, this giraffe is going out of the fence into the moon.
To watch the full interview, click the link in the description. R. Pal shared valuable insights on Bitcoin's trajectory, the impact of global liquidity, and how central bank actions could shape the crypto market. We'd love to hear your thoughts. Do you think potential Fed rate cuts could have a significant impact on Bitcoin's price? How do you see global liquidity shaping the future of cryptocurrency investments?
Thank you for watching. If you found this discussion insightful, don't forget to subscribe, like, and share our video for more content exploring the innovative world of decentralized technologies. [Music]