Transcription
Like, if you roll the clock back to 2007, Steve Jobs invents the iPhone. People thought, "Oh, it's a toy." By 2009, the iPhone's got an app store. If you understood anything about software, the iOS is a new operating system, and it's going to be its own ecosystem—at least as important as the web—and it's going to spawn an entire new generation of applications. The mobile wave is responsible for what, like 5 to 10 trillion dollars of wealth over the next decade? Can you imagine someone saying, "Oh, I get mobile device technology," and trying to time the market in Apple stock in 2011? Like, you're buying and selling Apple stock in 2011? Are you out of your mind? I'm trading Facebook stock back and forth between $8 a share and $4 a share and $12 a share, and you just want to do this? Do you not understand that one day every single person on the planet is going to have one of these things in their pocket, and it's going to go up by a factor of a hundred? You're trying to trade Apple stock between $125 and $170, bragging about how you bought it at $125 and sold it at $211? Have you figured out the consequences of being short a share if it goes up by $100? Are you out of your mind? Because, by the way, I spent 30 years in the business, and I obsess over this every single freaking minute of the day, and I wrote a book on it. I predicted the future; I made $500 million investing in these things. I started with a small amount of capital, and let me tell you one thing, John, I can't time the market. I have no freaking clue.
Welcome back to the channel. That was Michael Sailor discussing why you shouldn't be timing the market on all these stocks, on Bitcoin, on MSTR, and you should just be consistently buying whatever you think the best assets are. For us on this channel, that is Bitcoin and MSTR. That's not financial advice. But here's a tweet we got from Sailor this morning: "Get a better logo." So we know on Sundays we normally get Sailor showing the chart of all his buys over the last couple of years, saying, "We need to add more dots to this chart," which is kind of him saying, "Hey, we bought Bitcoin over the last week; we're about to announce another buy on Monday." But instead of that chart, we get this. So it's looking like MSTR might not have bought any Bitcoin over the past week—they weren't able to buy the dip, potentially. Now, it's still pretty early, and normally Sailor tweets this early in the morning that chart, but there have been some times where he tweets it later on in the day, so we may still see him tweet that chart; we just haven't seen it as of yet.
If we look at the most actively traded US stocks here—this is going to be for Friday—we can see MSTR is still in the top 10 with around $5.79 billion of volume. Now compare that to the companies it's trading with. If you look at the market caps of all these companies here that are trading around it, these companies are all bigger than MSTR, but MSTR is trading just the same amount of volume. That could show you where MSTR is going in the future, potentially. I like to show this and kind of give you guys updates on this because it's a really interesting thing to see such a small company like MSTR trading with more trading volume than something like Google or Netflix. If you are a trader—now Sailor talked about not trading earlier in the clip—but if you are a trader, you can see the MSTR IV rank is down to some of the lowest levels it's been at over the past year, and you can see it's coming back up here. It's up to 10 right now, but over the past year, this is historically low implied volatility. So if you are an options trader and you think that we've hit the bottom right now, might be a good time to get into some LEAPS, some call options. Not financial advice, but you can see IV is down pretty big there. We had MSTR close on Friday at around $255; we're up around 6% there. BTC is currently sitting at around $85,000; it hasn't really moved too much this weekend, so MSTR may open on Monday flat if Bitcoin remains with this same price action.
If you guys don't know, we have an affiliate link with Mumu. If you sign up with them, you can get up to 30 free stocks valued up to $2,000 each per stock, potentially. They also give you things like 8.1% APY on any cash that you hold on there, so you guys can check them out. That'll be in the description below. Then let's get into some Bitcoin updates here. We can say Bitdeer is still increasing their Bitcoin holdings; they have an increase of 178 Bitcoin compared to their last week's holdings. So now they hold over 1,390 Bitcoin, and that is a pretty big milestone for them; they're over that 1,000 mark. We know we have that Bitcoin Equity ETF tracker where all equities that have more than 1,000 Bitcoin will be added into that, so this is going to be big for Bitdeer because they'll probably be added into that ETF index. Then, looking at the Bitcoin ETF flows on Friday, we had $94 million flow into the ETFs. We've been seeing outflows for the past couple of weeks, as you saw; we have some pretty big outflow days here. Now we finally had a green day; we saw some money flow back into the ETFs. My speculation on this is if we get a good jobs report, if inflation starts to come down, we get a lower CPI number, and the traditional market starts to become less fearful, we'll start to see more inflows on the Bitcoin ETF. We have the jobs report on March 7th and the CPI report on March 12th.
Talking about CPI here, true inflation has been a leading indicator for actual CPI. If you look at the US inflation index, it's been falling off a cliff here. So we've been seeing, over the past year or so, true inflation has been a leading indicator for where CPI inflation is going—the reading that the Fed does. So if that's any indicator, we could see the CPI number drop substantially over the next couple of readings because we've seen, since the beginning of February, inflation fall off a cliff from 2.7% all the way down to 1.46%. In this chart we've been looking at, the global M2 Bitcoin has continued to follow global M2 to a T here. It looks like we potentially could go down a little bit more into the mid-70s if this chart plays out, but you can see this has around a 10-week lag for BTC, so it is looking like global M2 is starting to go back up. So Bitcoin, if this chart continues to play out like this, Bitcoin will be going up pretty soon here over the next couple of months or so to follow that global M2. March—the last four Marches for Bitcoin—have been green. If you look before that, March was normally red for Bitcoin, but recently, ever since 2021, March has been a pretty good month for BTC.
Then, to talk about the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill for Utah, you see Utah is here in chamber two—their last boat before it's potentially enacted and they start to buy Bitcoin. This is Bitcoin Laws weighing in on his thoughts on if this Bitcoin bill will be passed or not. But we can see right here, if this bill is passed, they're looking to acquire around 13,890 BTC, and that number would actually be around a month's supply of Bitcoin that is released every single day. We can see here this is what he says: He's saying for the potential of this bill to pass, the Utah Senate is strongly Republican, 22–6, and this is a Republican bill. The bill moved through both chamber committee processes quickly. Utah has historically been a leader among all states in adopting progressive attitudes towards Bitcoin. What's unclear is that HP230 has been circled, and the vote potentially is going to be delayed. The House vote was much closer than Republican dominance would suggest; there is likely some Republican opposition, so it could potentially pass; it could not. It's looking like there are some pros and cons to whether or not this bill will pass or not, but we'll keep you up to date as this all progresses. But it looks like Utah could be the first state to be putting Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset at the state level, so we'll see if that happens or not. Then I have a clip here from Sailor talking about the US potentially buying Bitcoin at a federal level and creating that Bitcoin strategic reserve, so let's go ahead and check it out. Quick video here today. Appreciate you guys watching all the way to the end. Like, subscribe for more content. We have new updates coming out every single day. Let's go ahead and check out this clip. You see a day where Donald Trump has a US reserve in Bitcoin. I do actually—I think that Bitcoin is emerging as the world's reserve capital network. It is the dominant capital network of the world. So the dollar is the world's reserve currency, and you recall I said money is currency of its short-term medium exchange; it's capital if it's long-term store of value. And if I wanted to send a billion dollars from one point on the earth to the other, right, the choice is ship a billion dollars of gold, move a billion-dollar building, or send Bitcoin, or send a billion dollars of paintings. You can see paintings aren't fungible; they don't make good money. A building isn't portable; it doesn't make good money. Gold—you know, gold failed as a capital network 400 years ago when the king of Spain tried to send a bunch of gold to the Netherlands to finance his army; it got blocked by Queen Elizabeth. She bankrupted the Spanish army, and that's why the Netherlands is Protestant and not Catholic today. So it's pretty obvious Bitcoin is a great capital network and it's a great capital asset. It makes sense for the US to own it because if the US owns that capital network, then anybody that wants to sell their Russian real estate or their Chinese natural gas fields is going to buy Bitcoin. So if you know where everybody's going, if you know everybody in the rest of the world is going to Bitcoin, and if you know everybody in the 20th century is going to trade their 20th-century assets for 21st-century assets, you might as well buy a big chunk of the network so that when they get there, you're the beneficiary of it. And I think Trump is a pretty good businessman, and this is an economically brilliant stroke. So I think that they get it; they understand it, and we will see the US move very, very aggressively into Bitcoin at some point. [Music]