Transcription
Hi, this is Kri Arttech with Wicked Stocks, bringing you your daily Nvidia report for Tuesday, February 18th, 2025.
Coming off the long President's Day weekend, where to begin? Well, I think I could start with this chart. It's not exactly what I've been saying, but it's pretty darn close. What I have been saying, actually, is that this channel structure—excuse me, I'm going to sneeze. Bear with me. Sorry about that.
Anyway, these rising channel bottoms at 13647 and 13879 on the daily chart, in combination with this descending channel top at 14198, this area will be narrowing through the week. It'll all come together Wednesday and Thursday. It's a range now, and I really just am picking the upper point at 13879 and the descending channel top at 14198 as an area that may well contain buying through the entire month of March.
From here, the market can grow overbought and fall away, all the way back to 10574 over the next, I'm going to say, month or two. I've been saying three to five weeks, but we're still in this process of retracement. The question, of course, is when will the retracement process be negated in favor of outright longer-term bullish continuation? That would come with a settlement above 14198.
Now, we have our spots on the weekly chart; it's 14245, and I have that as a minor point only. You know, but they're so close right now. For the day, anyway, at least for Tuesday, you could round up to 14245 if you want to, but I'm just—this is really what I'm queuing off of: 13879 and 14198, narrowing daily, able to contain buying through the month of March.
From here, we can fall back to 10574 over the next month or two. Now, if we do close above 14198, I still don't have that shown. I keep saying that I'm going to, but here's a good image. Actually, this could be the big picture: 18110.
Now, there's another channel structure inside of all this that I think is our 3 to 5 week target upon settlement above. I've got 14198, the same exact formation on the weekly chart at 14186. If you can imagine, if I draw a trend line across these lows and project against this extreme high, that takes us into the mid-160s and climbing.
So, it is stair-step. If we close above 14198 today, it is the mid-160s as a 2 to 3 week objective. But as we continue into later Q2, into the middle part of the year, over the next 3 to 5 months, this 18110 formation wouldn't surprise me if we close above the low 140s.
Until then, holding below 14186—once again, this is the weekly chart—will keep this market prone to bearish rotation as we continue through March into early April. Over the next month or two, 10613, which is the same formation on the weekly chart that we find on the daily chart at 10574.
So, that takes us back to the same idea here: you're selling the upper 130s, low 140s. Now, working our way down, we do have a newly formed rising channel bottom at 13227. Is this in reach today? Possibly. I mean, we have been, after all, testing meaningful channel resistance in the mid to upper 130s.
So, the market is prone to falling away, although we settled at our highs basically on Friday. It kind of depends on where we open. I think if we break 13647 today, I could have made this an intraday support level. I'm just keeping it as a minor point right now.
13227 is not out of the question. 13227 is a 1 to 1.5 week channel bottom that can contain today's lows. Solid day trade support. Also, if you're into the 3 to 5 day swing trade dynamic, this could be a level to buy into later in the week. We could round back up from here to 14198.
The market never moves in one straight direction for a prolonged period of time, and so that's the beauty of the swing trade, right? You can have really like a 3 to 5 day swing trade buying 13227, anticipating once again the low 140s, upper 130s, while still holding to the overall idea that this market is susceptible to falling back to 10574 over the next month or two.
Closing below 13227 is a good high for the week. 129 even has been reduced to an intraday support level only. I do think if we settle today, if we close today below 13227, we have a 1 to 3 day objective at 12364.
This is an extreme rising channel bottom. There are 50% and 5/8 Fibonacci down in this zone, and so we'll be watching that closely. I do think 12364 may well contain weekly selling pressures, and from here we could round up within a week or so back into the upper 130s, low 140s.
Finally, it would be a settlement below 12364 that I think is the 2 to 3 week sell signal down to 10574. But I do think, you know, you can sell this 13879 to 14198 region. I know you're selling on strength, but you can sell this in anticipation of 10574.
That might mean reaching for 105, 110 strike out of the money puts that don't expire. I go 3 to 4 months out on that expiration, given that 1 to 2 month time horizon possibility. If you want to sell on weakness after having tested meaningful resistance, then you can sell a settlement below 13227.
But just know that I'm only expecting short-term 12364, where we could actually bottom out through the rest of the week and possibly into next. Finally, if you're going for the 2 to 3 week sell signal on weakness, it is selling 12364.
If you want to sell the 2 to 3 week time frame on strength, we are right there right now. I guess what you're holding out for then—and that's not 2 to 3 weeks; it's more like 1 to 2 weeks down to 12364, where profits can be taken.
A 1 to 2 week swing trader could actually go long at 12364, knowing though that the bigger picture still maintains a susceptibility to 10574. Closing below 12364 is a 2 to 3 week sell signal down to 10574.
Upside, I can cover this: if we happen to—and I don't see us reaching that today—but if we did close today above 14198, this steeply rising 1 and 2 week channel top at 14648 is then likely. It'll be in the 150s as we continue into later week.
This is our short-term kind of 1 to 3 day swing trade above 14198. But if we close above 14198, here it is actually—it's exactly what I was talking about before. 16315 becomes our 2 to 3 week objective following a settlement above 14198.
So, if you're looking to buy the market on strength over the 2 to 3 week time frame, it is a settlement above 14198. Until then, we can top out here and fall away, as I've said a few times already in this video.
And long-term, you know, it really is a settlement—let's just say a weekly settlement Friday above 14186—and we can begin looking at the low 180s and climbing as a possible 2 to 3 month objective.
I think that pretty much rounds it out. I'm going to leave it at that. Please click like, share, subscribe. Check out wickedstocks.com. Last week, we put out two stock picks: Super Micro Computer and Voodoo Holdings.
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Alrighty, I'm going to leave it at that for Tuesday's daily NV video report. I'll be back tomorrow, of course, with Wednesday's, and you have a fabulous day.