Transcription
Have you ever wanted to create your own infinite money glitch? I'm going to show you at the top of this video exactly how to do that. I don't care how many people watch this video—whether it's 50,000, 100,000, or 200,000 people—I want everyone to know exactly how this works. I was fortunate enough to learn this; somebody taught me this back when I was a little before I turned 19 years old, and I've been adapting the policy ever since. I can tell you it definitely works very well, so I'm going to teach everybody that in this video here off the top. Then we're going to get into some major buys and sells I have coming in the public count: a $2.8 million-plus portfolio, and I'm going to tell you exactly what I'm planning on buying and selling in this portfolio. I have some big moves up, and I'll explain why in this video here today.
Okay, now I'm recording this the night before Thanksgiving, but this video is actually going to come out on Thanksgiving night, so I want to wish everyone that is celebrating a Happy Thanksgiving. If you watched this past Thanksgiving, I hope you had a great one with you and your family, and thank you for letting me be part of maybe your extended family by joining me for these videos. I appreciate all you guys as always, and instead of sending me turkey or stuffing or mashed potatoes, the only thing I ask from you for Thanksgiving is one thing and one thing only, and that's for you to smash that like button. I appreciate y'all being here. If you want to subscribe to the channel, you can go ahead and hit that subscribe button. I appreciate y'all being here, and I think this is going to be a very good video for a lot of folks out there.
Okay, now additionally, since this video is going to be coming out on Thanksgiving night, I thought I would give you guys early access to the 1000x stocks.com sale, so I'll put that as the pinned comment down there. If you watch this video on Thanksgiving night or you watch this video on Friday, it will work. If you watch this video on Saturday or after, the link will essentially no longer work, and you'll be just kind of redirected to apply for x stocks.com. Okay, that is going to be the pinned comment down there. That is for full access to the education portion: how to decode a balance sheet, income statement, cash flow, how to perform SWOT analysis, strong mode versus weak mode, how to value a dividend stock, growth stock, dividend investing 101, portfolio management. The way I said THX stocks.com, it's mainly a product that's for people that have been investing for a little while, but I wanted to create the product in a way that even if you're in your first year or two of investing, you can learn this sort of stuff, and so you can get on a much higher level much more quickly than you would be able to without the product, right? So that's why I created the whole education portion of it, and the metrics portion that teaches you exactly what all these different metrics mean and things like that. Full access to the search feature with mandatory metrics on all the stocks curated exactly how I want it to be curated, the advanced metrics as well as our ability to compare three companies side by side. That used to take me an hour plus to do all these different calculations on a stock; now it's done in less than two seconds. Not only mandatory metrics but advanced metrics on all three stocks. Type in whatever ticker symbols you want, compare all the companies versus each other, access to the earnings call tab, access to the SEC filings so you can read all the different annual reports, quarterly reports, and see if insiders of companies are selling or buying stocks that you hold currently, right? And then we have maybe my favorite thing, the projections tab, where you can run projections on a stock so you can figure out what your likely compounding annual growth rate is on that stock over the coming years, right? Our charts feature, which is absolutely beautiful—oh, I love the charts feature so much!
Okay, once again, that will be the pinned comment. I hope you guys enjoy that; I hope you enjoy it for a long time to go in the future. I am very thankful to have been able to build that product out over the past year or two, and I'm very happy with what we have, and we're just going to keep expanding it and just making it greater and greater into the future. Okay, once again, pinned comment down there.
All right, guys, so infinite money glitch. I was fortunate enough to learn this as a young person. I was able to learn this while working at Walgreens, making $8.25 an hour in the photo department, and I was able to—part of it I learned from my great accounting teacher I had in college, who I was very fortunate to have. Part of it was just kind of like researching other places as well, and I figured out kind of this infinite money glitch. I'm not the only one to figure this out; basically, almost everybody in the top 1% figures this out over time.
Okay, so you have your job or your business, right? It throws you off income—boom, your money comes in. Right now, what you want to do is your expenses need to be focused on things that appreciate or help you make more money. That's where you really want to focus your expenses. The more you can do that, the better off you're going to be. Essentially, the more your expenses go toward stuff that does not help you make more money, the more your money goes toward things that don't appreciate over time, the more you're going to make your life harder and harder when it comes to the money game, right? The more you focus on investing into products, services, whatever that help you make more money or assets that appreciate over time, the better off you're going to be long-term, essentially, right?
So for me personally, if I look at my own life, where's a ton of my money go? Real estate, right? Mortgages on three different homes: the one I live in plus my two real estate investment properties. Right? Software—I mean, THX stocks.com, it's not for free; like, that's a very expensive product I've been able to build out, and I have a great developer team involved in that, right? But it's very expensive. I also pay for a ton of other software. I probably pay for at least, my guess is, at least 10 different software every month, right? So a lot of times I'll sign up for like a yearly plan or a multi-year plan with a lot of software so I get like a bigger discount, essentially. But there's probably like 10—literally like 10 different software I pay for. It's a lot, but I can tell you what I pay for all those—it's well worth it. It's well worth it. None of those software—like, if I spend $500 a year on a software, it saves me or makes me a lot more than $500; I can tell you that much.
Okay, I spend a lot of money on people, right? For my real estate investment properties, they have landscapers, they have people that clean the pools, and all those sorts of things, right? Same thing with my own home. Anytime there's a problem, I get it fixed right away because these are assets that appreciate over the long term, and I need to keep them in great shape all the time, right? I pay for the fastest internet. I'm not going to use some slow, laggy internet because it's going to save me $20 a month. No! The world's on the internet nowadays. I want to load up THX; I want to load up now. I don't want to wait like, "Oh, you know, let me just wait an extra 10 seconds each time," or "5 seconds." No, no, no, no, no!
Okay, because you add up all those seconds you have to wait all the time—it adds up to a lot, right? Don't cheap out on things that help you build your health or build your wealth. There's a lot of places you can be cheap in life, right? If you don't want to eat at the super expensive restaurant on your anniversary and you want to trade down a little bit, okay, fair play, right? But I can tell you when it comes to your health and your wealth, you don't cheap out on those sorts of things because your health and your wealth is everything in this game. It's everything, right? So that's where you want to really focus your expenses.
Where a lot of people get caught up is they add a lot of expenses to their life that ultimately is not helping in these sorts of situations, and they set themselves up where they're not able to get to higher levels because they spend so much money on things that are not helping them make more money, right? Or on things that appreciate. So then once our expenses go through from there, we're going to have a certain amount of money left over, right? Now that money needs to go into stocks; it needs to go into new real estate properties. If you're going to put any in the sideline for cash, it needs to go into something that's yielding like 4% plus, which can be treasuries, it can be high-yield savings accounts, high-yield CD accounts, okay? It needs to be generating you money, cash flowing, right?
So that's exactly what I do from there, right? Then from there, you should make money on your stocks. Like, if I invest in a stock, I expect to make money 80% plus of the time, right? So over time, you're going to take stock gains here and there, right? And hopefully some good profits. I know I've taken some amazing profits this year. Dividend money is going to pour in, especially as your portfolio builds bigger and bigger and bigger. The dividends get more and more substantial. I estimate that likely within the next few years, I can start making $100,000 plus a year in just dividend income, and that's going to likely be in the next few years if you add up all my different portfolios and all the dividends that will be incoming, right? Rents coming in if you have real estate properties from there, right? All that money—you pour that money right back into stocks, real estate, and cash yield.
Now what you have essentially done is you've created your own money glitch, separated from the job, business, and expense profile because then that goes right back down here, right? And then you get right back into stock gains, dividends income, rent coming in, right? Pour it right back in, and you get into this beautiful part of the money glitch where essentially that just starts throwing off insane amounts of money that then if you want to go buy fancy homes and fancy cars and all those sorts of things, you can do that once you've built up to a substantial level.
I can tell you my first two or three years of doing this infinite money glitch, you're not going to see a lot from it—not in your first, you know, two or three years. I knew I was on the right track, but it's not like you really start to see a lot, right? When I started reaching like 22, 23, 24 years old, I started to feel the effects of the infinite money glitch, and I was like, "Oh damn! Like, okay, like we got something here." Like, all that work I was putting in over the last several years, I felt like I wasn't really seeing much; now it's starting to add up. Then my late 20s, I started to feel it even more. Now I'm 35 years old, and I start to feel it a lot more nowadays. I'm like, "Oh man, when I take a profit on a stock, many times it's tens of thousands of dollars of profits at a time, if not, you know, 100K plus." The dividend money is starting to really pile up, the rent's coming in, right?
And then you have the fortune enough to be here another decade. Can you imagine when I'm 45 years old, like the amounts of money that would be incoming and whatnot, right? And that infinite money glitch. So you got to understand, whatever level you're at, I don't care if you make $8.25 an hour like I used to or whether you make, you know, $180,000 a year, you got to understand that's how you structure to essentially create this infinite money glitch that over a 10-year span, 15-year span, 20-year span, you look back, you're like, "Oh my gosh! Like this thing I did here paid off huge," right? And if you build it enough, like, you know, eventually the amounts of money start to become so silly you couldn't even spend the money in your lifetime, essentially, right?
Which kind of creates a beautiful thing because as a human, I think we should enjoy life, right? And, you know, enjoy the homes we want to live in and the cars we want to drive and, you know, the lifestyle we want to have and the vacations and see the world and those sorts of things and enjoy our life. But additionally, if you can, when you go to leave this place, right, if you can have a substantial nest egg, I think that's beautiful because you can either create generational wealth or you can give that money to a lot of charitable causes that you see as, you know, maybe there were some injustices in the world while you were here, and you want to help fix those, right? And I think that's a beautiful, beautiful thing. Like, I think it should be every human's goal to make this place a better place than when you got here, and I think if we're doing that, we're winning, right?
And so, you know, I just want everybody to understand that's how the game's played, and over 10, 15, 20 years of playing this game this way, you start to look back and you're like, "Woo! Like, did I create some wealth there?" Right? So that's how it's done right there. I hope you guys got a lot of value out of just that portion of the video. We're about to talk stocks and all that, but I just think that's so important that everybody understands that part of the game, okay?
All right, so let's talk some stocks, right? This is the public count; this is what we're looking at here. We're going to talk about each of these stocks, which ones I'm thinking about buying, selling, holding—all that good stuff, right?
Meta here off the top—it's a huge weighting in the portfolio, obviously 34% of the portfolio, $967,000. Of that, $766,000 is just gains on the stock, right? Remember when I told you the compounding starts to get fun, right?
Tesla's a pretty shocking one. It's the current value of my Tesla shares, and by the way, it's a little under 12% of the portfolio. $332,000 is what my shares are worth; $319,000 of that is gains. Like, let that sink in for a moment—like, woo, could be fun!
Palantir—a little less than 12% of the portfolio, about 11.2%, right? $330,000 of current value; $289,000 of that $330,000 is gains.
PayPal—$268,000 position, a little less than 10% of the portfolio; $74,000 of that is gains.
Amazon—$228,000 position, 8% of the portfolio; $104,000 that gains.
Elf on a Shelf—$127,000 position, about 4.5% of the portfolio, and $119,000 of that $127,000 is gains on that stock.
Cheesecake's up to a $30,000 gainer; that's a little less than a 4% position, $110,000, so I have a good amount invested in cake. I like it; I like it a lot where I'm positioned there.
Revolve—$99,000 of current value; $65,000 of that is just gains, right?
Nike down $110,000; that's a $96,000 position, 3.4% of the portfolio.
Estee Lauder—we're slightly positive on that one; it is positive $843, $60,000 position here, 2%.
I'm looking forward to speaking about that one.
Sofi—up $33,000, up 127% on a $59,000 current value, now 2% of the portfolio.
Celsius—right around break-even, 2% of the portfolio, $56,000 position.
Fubo—down $15,000, down 33%, about $30,000 of the portfolio, 1% weighting.
Planet is a 1% weighting, down 69%, down $67,000.
Monster—up $1,000, up 4.5%, $24,000 position, a little less than 1% of the portfolio.
And then two Brother put options—about a half percent of the portfolio, down about $5.5K there.
I'm just on these shares here—$1.7 million plus in the plus, and that does not include dividends.
So let's get into the stocks. So I really want to focus in on these top positions here at first, okay? Because there's some huge differences here. You could look at my portfolio, you know, and obviously the top is Meta, 34%, and then Tesla a little less than 12%, and Palantir about 11 and 11.5%, right?
Now the thing you got to understand about those positions is one, they've gone up so much—that's how those stocks became such ridiculously huge positions, right? It's not like I put crazy money into those stocks; it's just they went up a crazy amount. Palantir up $289,000; we're up $319,000 in Meta and $766,000 in gains on Meta, right? Or Tesla was at $319,000. So when you're up that much on those stocks, that's how they became such big weightings.
But what's interesting is two of those stocks—you can make an argument that are very overvalued, right? If you were just looking at forward P/E to forward P, trailing 12-month P/E, right? And those are Palantir and Tesla. And it's very clear when you look at Meta, right? It's very clear Meta's got the most attractive risk-reward profile out of those three stocks, right? Because it trades at a forward P of 22 with double-digit top-line growth and double-digit bottom-line growth, right? And they have an insanely diversified business because they own Facebook, they own Instagram, they own WhatsApp, they own Oculus, they own Threads, they own the Llama model, which is just taking over in regards to AI, and they're actually one of the very few companies that's actually benefiting massively from AI outside of maybe Palantir and Nvidia, right?
So Meta is the best risk-reward profile in terms of like what are the chances you lose money in Meta over the next three years? Extremely low. What are the chances you double your money in Meta over the next three years? Extremely high.
Palantir and Tesla represent bigger upside, right? Palantir—the growth rates continue to accelerate from this company, and look at the trillion-dollar month earnings per share growth. The current year expected earnings per share growth—it's off the charts; it's insane. I mean, we're talking about 200% plus numbers, right? Current year expected revenue growth—27%. But keep in mind they just did a 30% number, and analysts are at about 25% for next year. Palantir could come in with a 30% plus number next year, right? And Palantir has been consistently upping their revenue growth rates; it keeps accelerating. At some point, that's going to break, but we don't know when, and that's the upside risk if you want to think about Palantir. What if this company just keeps accelerating these growth rates, and next quarter is 33% revenue growth, then 35% revenue growth, then 37% revenue growth, then 40% plus revenue growth, right? Like maybe we're not at the top. A lot of people want to call a top on revenue growth; maybe we're not at a top yet. Maybe we still got, you know, a bit to go here. And if this one reaches a 40% or 50% type revenue growth number, people are going to lose their mind. Like, next thing you know, Palantir would be $100 if that happens. But that's a big question.
So this is why I look at a stock like Palantir here—it definitely comes with a lot bigger risk than a Meta. But Meta is likely growing revenues 15 to 19% now next year, in my personal opinion, right? Analysts are kind of in the 16-17% range; I'm more toward the 18-19% range in terms of what Meta's going to grow. I don't think it's really a debate. It's not like Meta's going to magically grow 30% plus next year. I would love that if they did because, holy smokes, like Meta is going to $1,200 quick if that happens, but that's likely not happening, right? Meta is likely going to be, probably in my numbers, 18-19% revenue growth. P/E is a complete wild card; we don't know, right?
So that's why that one's trading so insanely rich because the numbers are just off the charts, and they just keep putting up better and better growth. Tesla has a little bit of a different story than Palantir here because Tesla, we're likely going to see finally good numbers coming from this company in 2025-2026, which the numbers have been pretty depressing from Tesla in 2023-2024. You're likely going to see revenue growth coming in the stock again—double-digit revenue growth—which that revenue growth has been sleepy at best for the last good bit of time here. You're likely going to see margins expand rapidly—I'm talking gross margins and net margins—because of full self-driving software and more and more subscription plans there.
Additionally, Cybertruck is going to go from basically a headwind for the company to a tailwind for the company in regards to profits. And, you know, with a better consumer backdrop, I think that could be very, very good for Tesla overall. So Tesla is going to likely see, I think, major gross margin and net margin expansion in 2025. Now additionally, there's a robo-taxi opportunity, which is just a complete wild card. We don't know, you know, we don't know when that starts to come to fruition, but whenever it does, it's going to be a very exciting day and a very exciting time.
And then, you know, always Tesla is so much in the pipeline that the stock's always going to trade very rich. Like, Tesla's always going to trade at pretty much a forward P of 50 plus as long as Elon Musk is leading the company and they have this sort of DNA at that company. Like, it's always going to trade extremely rich compared to the market in general just because people are always so excited about what Tesla has coming down the pipeline. And to be quite frank, you've got to respect it. Like, you've got to respect it. Like, what are you going to say? They've done everything people said they couldn't. People said when I was buying this stock many years ago, right? People said this was going to be a bankrupt company. Let's not forget that. People were calling $5 price targets; they were saying it's going to zero; they were saying it's not going to make it, right? They were saying they can never produce a lot of cars. Now the company's going to do what? $100 billion plus in revenue in a year? It's crazy! People said they could never figure out full self-driving. Dang, they've come a long way, and they're almost there now at this point in time, right? They're pretty freaking close. We're in that last inning now; we're in the ninth inning of this game, and once that's solved, that's solved. And, you know, full go all over the U.S.
So they've said this company couldn't do this; they couldn't do that; they couldn't do this; they couldn't do that. And every time people try to talk down Tesla, they can't do this; they can't accomplish—they get it done. And so can you imagine what Tesla pulls off over this next 3 years, 5 years, 7 years, 10 years? You already have your flapjacks flipped in regards to that one, right?
So yeah, that's my views here. Palantir—a hold for now. If the stock goes $70-$75, I might consider selling 1,000 shares of Palantir and taking my position sizing down to 4,000 shares. If it goes over $75 this year, I mean, you know, here before the end of 2024, I could sell 2,000 shares of Palantir because the risk-reward profile just will not be nearly as attractive. So we'll see what happens in regards to that one. I kind of hope it doesn't go up because I would love to just hold the current shares I have here, right, and continue to see those growth rates come in and then kind of make some adjustments if I want to continue to hold or buy or sell, right?
Tesla, I've already sold what I wanted to sell in regards to Tesla, so now these 1,000 shares are just holds for the long term in regards to Tesla. I already drisk in regards to that one, so yeah, my 1,000 shares now I'm just riding with that longer term.
PayPal, Amazon, Elf—so PayPal, 9.5% position; Amazon's about 8%; Elf on a Shelf about 4.5%. So in regards to these ones, right? These ones are honestly all easy buys. You know, Palantir and Tesla—those are debatable, right? Those are harder stocks to buy because it's like, what if growth rates all stagnate or go down or something? You know, those stocks could get hit huge. I honestly think all three of these are easy buys. Like, it's not a lot of risk, right? PayPal—like, they just threw out their numbers and put up great numbers, and the cash flows just continue to build; the operating income just continues to build. It's phenomenal! And trades at a P/E of 18 for a stable business model like PayPal with PayPal, Venmo—I mean, you know, just a good company, good numbers, a money-making stock, right? And yeah, the money is starting to pour in in regards to PayPal now—up $74,000 in regards to that stock, right? I wouldn't be surprised if, you know, before no time, we’re up $100K plus in regards to PayPal.
So this is an easy hold. Alex Chris is doing a great job so far leading this company, and, you know, he's only been in the job for a year. Imagine, you know, after he gets two years in, three years in, the team's starting to innovate very quickly; they're starting to run that company very lean. I think they're setting up really well for 2025-2026 for PayPal.
Amazon's just always a buy. Amazon's always a buy. I don't know what any time period Amazon hasn't been a buy other than debatable like during the Rona hype when everybody was forced to be home and buying stuff online. Outside of that, Amazon's always been a buy—always been a buy. And it continues to be a buy. Forward P at 34 in the stock for how much growth Amazon Web Services has over this next decade, the e-commerce business, the advertising business, all the new products and services down the pipeline for Amazon—oh my gosh! Like, always an easy buy for this one. Earnings per share growth next year should be 20% plus for this company—double-digit revenue grower on revenue as far as I can see. Like, I don't know when Amazon doesn't grow double digits on revenue, but it's not anytime in this decade; that's my opinion on that.
And Elf's honestly an easy buy. Forward P is down to 33 on the stock for the type of company it has been growing. The way this company's growing—keep in mind, 2025-2026 are going to be huge years in my opinion for earnings per share expansion. This year has sucked when it comes to earnings per share—not the case in my opinion at all in regards to 2025-2026. So you're likely going to still see nice revenue growth but also much, much, much nicer earnings per share growth than revenue growth in 2025-2026, in my personal opinion.
Additionally, the business is very diversified now. It's not just Elf; they have Atorium and many, many other brands at this company. And not only that, the company's well positioned for any environment. They made it through high inflation; they made it through lower inflation, right? They made it through recessions; they can make it through anything, right? They made it through Rona when people said no one was going to wear makeup anymore. Like, they made it through to the other side, and they emerge stronger and stronger and stronger. The company's a one-on-one—like, very, very special company.
Cake, Revolve, Nike—let's talk about these. Cake's a little less than a 4% position; Revolve's around 3.5%; Nike's 3.4%. So Cake—easy buy in regards to Cake. Cake, it's just so easy. It's just so easy! I mean, I'm just buying as many Cake shares as I can for—I thought I'm only going to buy Cake in 2024. I'll probably still be buying Cake shares in 2025, and I made good money on the stock. Now we're up $30,000 on the stock plus all the dividends. This doesn't even count for all the dividend money, you know, they obviously pay out each quarter. I want to continue to buy Cake shares. Like, there's still not even be until the stock trades at a forward P over 20. It's not reflecting the real growth profile. North Italian in Flower Child—Wall Street hasn't even caught on to this yet. I'm way ahead of Wall Street on this one. They'll start catching on, in my opinion, in 2025, and I think they'll catch on a lot more in 2026-2027, but they haven't even begun to catch on to this story yet. They will; they will!
So, oh my gosh, Cake—I love that one. Revolve, you know, the stock looks a little rich, and I think that's fair, but the growth rates Revolve might put up next year might shock people. They might be much stronger than a lot of people are anticipating in 2025. So Revolve is a stock I thought about taking some profits in, but I am kind of—I kind of do want to see what their next quarter they do here because I think the consumer backdrop is going to be a lot better in 2025 than it's been over the last few years, and I think that sets up very well for companies like Revolve and for a company like Nike.
Nike—easy money buy. The stock has, you know, just been a joke compared over the past 5 years. Very rare you can get a stock like Nike at, you know, 5, 6, 7 times discounts. That's what we're getting on Nike. Analysts are so bearish on this stock. Look at the earnings per share expectations for next year; look at the revenue, you know, non-growth expected for next year. The numbers are just—I mean, analysts are very bearish on Nike. I think they're too bearish. I think Nike's revenue will be up in the 2025 calendar year. I think Nike's earnings per share is going to be up substantially in 2025 because of all the cost-cutting measures they have going through this year. You're really going to start to see come to fruition in 2025. So Nike—just an easy money buy.
Now, as far as these smaller positions—Estee Lauder, 2% position; Sofi, 2%; Celsius, 2%; Fubo, 1%; Planet, 1%; Monster, 86%; Toll, 59%. So as far as these go, Estee Lauder—you know, still a buy. I don't know how much more I want to buy that stock because it is a turnaround play. I don't want to get too overexposed to it, you know? I don't mind being a 2 or 3% position before it starts to go up, so, you know, I could maybe add a little bit more.
Sofi—I'm kind of upset with Sofi. It's going up so fast that I haven't really got to build out the position I wanted to build out. I wanted to get to 5,000 shares of Sofi in the public count, and I'm a long way from 5,000, right? I'm 1,300 shares short. I'm at 3,700, and the stock is just relentless. I mean, it's now at $16 plus, so it's frustrating me. I'll be honest with you guys—very frustrating. I mean, if I held my 5,000 shares, I'd be perfectly happy. Okay, I'm good! Like, that's what I wanted to hold. But the fact that I didn't get there—that's a little frustrating for me.
Celsius—2% position here. I could definitely add some more Celsius. I don't want to make that a massive position in the portfolio, but I wouldn't mind adding another thousand shares roughly of Celsius. Fubo—I'm probably good with what I have in regards to Fubo. I could maybe add a little bit, but I'm probably good with what I have there. You know, that's of those, you know, crazy risk-reward profiles. You know, it's a dollar-something stock; it's priced for bankruptcy. If they don't go BK and they get to profitability, I wouldn't be surprised that stock goes $5, $10, like 12 within 12 to 24 months.
So yeah, it's got its risk, but it also has crazy reward potential. Planet—you know, management team's done a good job there, but unfortunately, Florida voters did not come through with recreational in regards to that, so that definitely hurts Planet a little bit in regards to Florida opportunity there. I'm assessing whether I want to just continue to hold these Planet shares or whether I want to start buying Planet again, so that's something I'm currently going through right now. I'm trying to figure out.
Monster—a little less than 1% position. This is just a hedge on Celsius. So Celsius is a 2% position; Monster is a little under 1%. I'm trying to keep those roughly in line, so let's say I take Celsius to a 3% position, then I'll probably take Monster to a 1.5% position of the public count there. Not the biggest money-maker stock; it's just a really good hedge just in case I'm wrong on Celsius, right?
To Brother puts—I think I want to add some more to Brother puts right here before year-end. You know, my hope is just the market drifts higher in December, pushes everything up, and to Brother goes right along with it, and then I'll add more to my puts for next year. I don't think the high-end real estate market's in a good place, guys. I mean, I look at—and then we're about to get into a new stock I want to add in the portfolio and add some substantially, but I don't think the real estate market's good on the high end. I'm looking out at what I see in Vegas; I'm looking out at what I see in Arizona. It doesn't look like a good, healthy market to me. It looks very weak. And when I say very weak, I'm talking the weakest I've seen it since before Rona—since before Rona. And honestly, it's even weaker than it was before Rona, in my personal opinion, in regards to the higher end of the market.
So I don't think To Brothers sets up well at all. We'll see; maybe I'm wrong, but I'm just like, if there's some place you could see some real weakness, I think it's in some of these home builders, especially at the top, like that with Toll. I think people are piling in money there because it's kind of like Toll Brothers is in, you know, a lot of those home builder type ETFs, and I think people have kind of been flooding in money there because it's kind of like part of the Trump trade, right? And construction and small caps and those sorts of things. So I think it's been benefiting here in the short term, but I just think investors are getting—I don't think they're going to be right in regards to Toll. I think the numbers are going to be, you know, I think their order numbers, their new order numbers in 2025, I think it's going to be weak.
And the craziest thing about that is you look at the stock market doing so well; you look at Bitcoin doing so well, and you would think like, "Home building has to be booming." No, no, no, no, because the problem is mortgage rates have gone up quite a bit as well, right? And now there's just being so much inventory starting to flood the market. Like I said, I pay attention—I pay attention to three markets heavily in regards to real estate. I pay attention to Arizona, the Phoenix metropolitan area; I pay attention to my city, Vegas; and I pay attention to New York City. Those are three markets I pay close attention to on Zillow all the time, looking at how many listings are out there, are these properties moving, what are they priced at, are they price cutting? I'm telling you guys, it's bad. It's bad. And from everything I hear out of Florida, bad. Texas, bad.
So yeah, I don't think the setup in the short term, meaning over the next 12 months, is good for a luxury home builder like Toll Brothers. I really don't.
Now, a new stock I want to add to this public account is this one: it is AMD, a $136 stock. I just bought some shares recently. I'm sure you guys saw a video from a few days ago. I bought some shares in what was that? My Ally account, but I haven't bought anything in the public count yet, which is through Fidelity, right? I would love to add an AMD position here because here's what I'm looking at for AMD. I think AMD from 2025 to 2028 could easily put up an average of 30% revenue growth. Some of the years are going to grow faster; some years maybe a little bit slower, but I think 30% average for revenue for AMD is easy peasy lemon squeezy.
So it puts their revenue around $73 billion in 2028. As far as net income, I think they'll be able to do about a 40% clip there, and so that puts them at net income margins about 15%, which is like a mile and a half away from Nvidia. Nvidia's like ridiculous—like 50% net margins right now; it's insane, right? But since AMD is a chip company, they usually, you know, they kind of get dinged for that unlike SaaS companies that kind of benefit. So I don't think the P/E they'd be able to command is nearly as high as they should.
So I think like a 50 to 70 given 30% top line, 40% bottom line. Keep in mind, if this was a SaaS company, they'd probably be commanding 80 to 100 plus, but since it's a chip company, AMD will be seen as not being able to command a crazy P/E even though the growth rates are ridiculous, right? So it puts a stock price in 2028 somewhere between $346 and about $485, which gives me a compound growth rate on the low end about 26%, on the high end about 37%. It's very attractive, and I think this is a very realistic case in regards to AMD. Yeah, I think that's very realistic.
Now, a bear scenario for AMD—this is not my ultra bull case, but this is my bear case. I think a bear case would be 20% revenue growth. That'd be extremely disappointing. If AMD only does 20% revenue growth, they lost—let me put it as frank as that. If AMD only averages 20% revenue growth from 2025 to 2028, Lisa Su and the team, they lost that. Like, with how much data center growth is in AI chip spend, gaming coming around, embedded coming around, right? The new acquisitions, ET systems—like, I'm telling you guys, if they somehow only put up 20% on average for those four-year span, disaster. That's why it's called a bear case, right?
30% net income growth would also be a disaster—net income margins, you know, 15-16% range. So maybe they command a 40 to 60 P/E if they grow on top line 20%, bottom line 30%. So it would be a compound growth rate of 11% on the low end and 23% on the high end. So even in my bear scenario, this can still be a good money-maker stock over the next four years, right? Just it wouldn't be as exciting of a money-maker there, right?
Now, in terms of, you know, I really wanted to cash 200 Meta shares before year-end and kind of deploy some of that money into some of these lower positions, but Meta hasn't trouble making a year-end run. We'll see what happens in December, but my hope was Meta went $700 plus, and I would cash 200 shares and redeploy that elsewhere. Now, I do believe—and I think I did a video two days ago or three days ago on here on the main channel speaking about Meta—I expect that stock will be $1,000 plus in either 2025 or 2026, and then it will double up again to $2,000 plus. That will be like 2029-2030, in my opinion, based upon the numbers, the valuation it should be able to command as far as P/Es go and those sorts of things. That would make sense.
So, but yeah, I really wanted the stock to go $700 plus before year-end and cash out 200 shares, but I don't know if I'm going to get it. And so if I don't get it, it's fine. Like, you know, it's not the worst thing in the world as far as a portfolio. You know, maybe we hit $4 million in 2025, especially if Meta can go on another big run, right? Tesla can hold, Palantir can hold. I don't really need to get great gains from those stocks; I just need them to hold. In 2025, if Meta pulls through, that stock finishes 2025 at $800, $900 a share, something like that, right? Or maybe close to $1,000 a share, which would be a lot of fun. Palantir and Tesla just kind of hold together. PayPal keeps running; maybe that stock gets over the $10-$120 level in 2025. Amazon goes on a run to $250-$275. Elf comes back to that $200 range. I think we could easily be $4 million, if not $4 million plus, in 2025, and then maybe getting up to $5 million plus in 2026 for the portfolio, which would be a big milestone for this portfolio overall.
But definitely happy with where I'm positioned—happy with where I'm positioned for next year, regardless of whatever happens with the market. And so, yeah, yeah, yeah—definitely a happy camper.
Okay, appreciate you guys joining me as always. Thank you so much for being there. Once again, that THX sale is on the pinned comment down there to get it. If you watch this video Saturday or after, the deal will already be over. So when you click the pinned comment, it'll just redirect you to fill out an application. But for now, it is on. I hope you guys enjoy that; I hope you learn a lot from it. I hope you really enjoy the product over the next few years.
And additionally, these just came in the mail—the new steel membership cards, the 2025 Edition 4000x stocks.com. Very exciting! So we still have some 2024s left, so some of you guys that get the sale, you might get 2024 sent to you; some of you guys that do the sale, you might get 2025 sent to you. So yeah, I hope you guys really enjoy that.
Okay, all right, guys—much love as always, and have a great day!