Transcription
All right, guys, welcome back.
So, Paler, I don't remember when I talked about this one, but I'm sure I was talking about this one somewhere around here or somewhere around here, saying that possibly 100 bucks. Maybe, uh, we went as high as $84, and now from its highs, the stock has pulled back, and it has pulled back 20%. So, pretty much correction territory.
Do you like this discount? A 20% discount? I mean, it's for everybody to decide. But I want to take a look at option activity in general and what's happening with insider activity. I know a lot of people have posted that insiders are dumping, but just instead of going into individual orders of who has sold how much, we know nobody's buying this in terms of insiders. They have been selling since August, where this stock had, in September, 1.34 billion dumped by insiders.
In September, October, 400 plus million. In November, they sold almost 1 something trillion, 1.3 close to 1.4 billion. And then right here in December, another 400 million. And 2025 just started, and they started selling again. So, this is insider activity.
When it comes to looking in general, I like stocks that pull back towards their 50-day moving average. When a stock is in an uptrend, it is a good area to be bullish and to basically long the stock. But I'm not really a fan of the stock in general with these prices. I like to trade it as a breakout.
By looking at what's going on in general with the overall market, we have a market basically in indecision mode, where either it's going to take a hit, and it will be pretty bloody, and all of these growth names might get hit a little bit more. And Paler, why not? If it cracks this 50-day moving average, it can come down to these $60 levels. It can come down a little bit more, eight bucks.
We have a gap. I don't know if it's going to fill this gap, but it has an earnings gap from somewhere around 41 to all the way to 47. I don't know if it's going to fill or if it's going to drop all the way to these levels. Well, we'll have a look at it once it cracks these levels.
So far, the only clue I can have is, since I trade a lot of options, check the links below for all the socials. I'm putting together a little options course, but I trade only options.
Today's stats, which is tomorrow, is off. So, by looking at this, by looking at the stats of just today, I'm just looking at today's data: 395 total calls, 368,000 both in thousands K puts came in. So, pretty much the put-to-call ratio is not significant. Nothing is outstanding. Crazy, a little bit more calls.
But if you take a look at the Delta, this is what gives me a clue: what contracts traded at the bid, what contracts, what percent of contracts traded at the asking price. You can see 46% of these calls that traded from today's volume are calls between the Delta of 0 to 20, which means those are pretty far outside of the money.
Usually, those are sells. People just do covered calls, spreads, and they just take advantage of it. They just let that contract expire worthless and collect that premium. But if you take a look at the puts, it's a little bit different: 32% at 0 to 20, 32% at 20 to 40, and then 23% of that volume came in pretty large volume, actually, 41 to 60.
So, which means, yeah, there could be some put buying. Let's take a look at orders, and then what I do is I come take a look at the filter out by the biggest orders that came in just for today and see what people are doing.
So, stock technically speaking, sitting at the support, we might see some sort of a relief bounce going into the next week of pretty big option expiration. But on Friday, we have an employment situation as well. There are going to be a lot of reports coming out within it, so payroll and all that stuff.
So, somebody's playing maybe a buy, maybe to sell. I'm not sure. So far, by looking at the orders, anytime I see red fills, it could be sells.
$75 calls, and then if you take a look at the puts, I mean, there are some puts: 65 puts, 75 puts for February. There is also a June $60 put. June, this is 2026, actually. This is pretty expensive, so this is definitely not a sell.
When you see a contract that is a leap, that has one year, one and a half years, and it is purchased as a put, it's usually not a sell. People, if they have an intention of buying a certain asset, they sell naked puts, pretty much saying, "Okay, so at this price, I'm happy to own this asset, but in the meantime, give me a little bit of a premium."
And pretty much, they collect the premium and they get assigned if that stock price trades below this track. But June 18th next year, that is pretty big. A put, 1,000 contracts at $13. What is it? How much is it? Is it like 1.3 million, something like that?
For summer, another one, $40 for this. But calls that I'm seeing that are being thrown here are ultra short-dated, which means either it's just traders like me who are just wanting to take advantage of the pretty much maybe relief bounce and just trade it ultra short-term. But I'm not seeing longer-dated calls so far among these large orders that came in.
There are a bunch of puts: June 45 put next year. Okay, this five put, that doesn't make sense, but okay. March this year, $60 put. January 55, June 45. There are some February 80 calls. Okay, this is a spread. I'm not sure what the next leg of this is. They could have sold a put and bought a call. Not sure, but it is a spread.
Overall, just by glancing, I don't want to go through every single order, but just by looking at this put-to-call ratio, I can say the option market today was slightly bearish. Longer-dated but shorter-dated contracts looking a little bit bullish.
So, maybe we're going to see a little bit of a relief bounce. But anytime stocks go below their five and 20-day moving averages, I like to watch them to the downside. But the 50-day is a trend watch. This is an uptrend. It hasn't traded below that 50-day ever since that fluke in August.
Since summer, it hasn't traded at its 50-day moving average. Actually, this stock, so this is the first time it's testing it, this yellow line on my chart, which is 66. So, I put an alert. Let's see what happens with 65.
But I'm interested if the overall market starts taking a hit, maybe to play this name to the downside. But so far, this is what I'm watching. I also keep an eye on maybe MACD. Maybe I'll throw it in there. I'm not seeing any sort of negative divergence to play with those people who are going long 75 calls.
But we'll see on Friday. I mean, since it's expiring next week, I can just follow it daily, and if there's going to be some sort of momentum, I can just go in and out. But so far, yeah, 20% down, is it a discount or is it a buy? You tell me.
So, this is the divergence I wanted to show: MACD divergence. The stock started going higher, and then you saw the correction.
So, that's the video for Paler. Thanks for watching. I will see you in the next one. Peace.