Transcription
Happy January 1st, 2025! What a year ahead we have, my friends. JLD here, and welcome to Micro Strategy Today, where we will be talking about Samson Ma's prediction for Micro Strategy this year: a $35,000 Micro Strategy price prediction that is considered bearish by the individual who gave it.
We're going to discuss Micro Strategy's biggest competitors, how volatility is vitality, and so much more. Micro Strategy Today is the only daily show bringing you Micro Strategy updates and insights seven days a week. I mean, here we are, it's January 1, and I'm kicking out a video for you to prove that we did it on Christmas. I'll do it on Easter—every day for you, my friends!
All that I ask is that you comment below about where you're watching this video from. I'm compiling an epic list of Micro Strategy investors worldwide, and I'm actually going to submit this to Michael Saylor at a future date. So comment below; I'd love to know where you're coming from.
This video is my opinions only; it's not financial advice. Now, let's dive in!
Here we go with the MSTR D Tracker. Again, I announced this yesterday, but for those who maybe didn't see it, I'm going to be interviewing the founder of this site right here—the creator of this site. We're going to be walking through every single one of these metrics. It's going to be a good time, so stay tuned for that.
The stock price is at $289—what a gift that I believe we were given at the end of the year! You better believe that I tapped that buy button. We are now 142 out of 500 in the S&P 500. Currently, Bitcoin's price is at $93,600. We have a $170 Bitcoin value per basic share, so for every share that you own, it's $170 of Bitcoin value within that.
The NAV premium is at the lowest that I've seen since I've been covering Micro Strategy at 1.7—like a coiled spring, my friends. We have unrealized profit loss at 13.93% return, and the Bitcoin year-to-date is zero, and the quarter-to-date is zero because it's a brand new year and a brand new quarter. I'm excited to report those numbers to you as we go forward because they're super valuable to you, the shareholder, and to me, the shareholder.
We're going to have a lot of fun seeing that number go up and to the right. How fast? Time will tell, but it's going to be a lot of fun regardless.
So let's dive into the C Tracker. I've been skipping this for the past few videos because we had a lot of holiday stuff going on, but now that we're at the beginning of the new year, we have some awesome countdowns.
The historic 2025 OI expiration (options interest expiration) is just 16 days away. You don't really have to know exactly what that means, but I will give you a little insight and do a deeper dive on this in a future video shortly within this week, probably.
Basically, a lot of options are going to be expiring, and people are going to have to make big decisions, which are going to have a big impact. Most people are saying a very bullish impact on Micro Strategy's price, but again, as always, time will tell.
The presidential inauguration is just 19 days away, and the January Fed meeting is 28 days away. So we'll see what happens there. Are they going to remain hawkish? Time will tell.
The FTX estimated repayments of $16.5 billion are in 30 days, and we know what a lot of those individuals are going to do with that money—they're going to FOMO into what's been going on in the crypto, Bitcoin, Micro Strategy world.
And then my favorite: I can't wait! It's 39 days away. I wish it was closer—the earnings report for Micro Strategy. This is just an estimated date; I don't think it has actually been announced yet, but this is what we're thinking the date's going to be for the Q4 earnings report, where I'm expecting Michael Saylor to announce huge and amazing things for 2025 and beyond. So we'll do a live watch party for that, so stay tuned!
Here's an article about Bitcoin reaching $1 million in 2025. This year—this isn't like next year—this year, says Samson Ma. This guy has been very bullish for a long time when it comes to Bitcoin. He also talks about Micro Strategy surging ahead, and I'm going to skip down to that part where he says Micro Strategy's big gains and predictions for 2025.
Micro Strategy, the business intelligence company led by Michael Saylor, is making waves in the crypto space with its aggressive Bitcoin buying. In his year-end tweet, he reported that the company's treasury operations had a 47.8% return and added 12,600 Bitcoin to the balance sheet, valued at around $11.6 billion.
Ma also predicts Micro Strategy stock will go big, forecasting it to hit $2,000 by the end of 2025. So that's about a 9x, give or take, from here. So 9x sounds pretty good; I'll sign up for that. Actually, more like a 7x from today's value, but it's still pretty exciting.
We'll see what's going on here. With Micro Strategy's commitment to Bitcoin, the stock will continue to benefit from the rise of Bitcoin's value and solidify its position as a major player in the crypto space. Boom! Shake the room! Let's go!
Even the Motley Fool had to chime in here. This is how much bigger Micro Strategy's Bitcoin stash is than the next largest corporate holding. This isn't even against the competition because this is the beautiful thing about this process: nobody's in competition with Micro Strategy for number one. They're just too far ahead; they have too big of a stash, too big of a moat.
And guess what? We're welcoming all copycats. We're welcoming all individuals who take the Micro Strategy playbook because what does that do? That increases the price of Bitcoin, and the price of Bitcoin increases the value of Micro Strategy, and so on and so forth. Everybody's going to win that adopts the strategy, in my opinion.
Micro Strategy's stash of Bitcoins hits 4,464 on the last day of 2024. No other company comes anywhere close to holding as many Bitcoins as Micro Strategy does. Co-founder Michael Saylor sees no problem with buying more of the digital currency, even as it rises to new heights because it's at $0.1 million right now. We're going to a million, my friends! Let's go!
This article says Micro Strategy holds 10x more Bitcoin than the next largest position, which is actually Marathon Digital (MARA). They hold over 40,000 Bitcoins, so way down there. Then there's Tesla at 9,720 Bitcoins. I mean, come on, Elon! Get with it!
Let's move on to the tweets of the day. Michael Saylor says, "Freeze your assets now." You can interpret this in a lot of ways. I'm just going to say what this means is: hold your Bitcoin, hold your Micro Strategy. That's how I'm interpreting this.
Michael Saylor, looking good, brother! This article from Ethan says, "When in doubt, zoom out." The principles of Bitcoin do not change. Bitcoin is still the hardest asset the world has ever seen, and Saylor is stacking it. Just got to wait.
Volatility is vitality. If you do not like the volatility, then you will struggle with the ride. Volatility is the life of Micro Strategy; it's the life of Bitcoin. And my friends, let's do this together!
MSTR updates—a great channel here. I've been going back and forth with the creator of this channel. They're just doing some great things, so I highly recommend following here. They say, "Happy New Year! 2025 is here; it's time to lock in!"
If you've been leaning back and just saying, "What's been going on here?" well, it's time to lean forward and lock in because 2025, in my opinion, is going to be quite a ride.
Let's get into Matt from Mattor UTXO. Okay, so Bitcoin needs to be at like $96,000 by March 31st for Micro Strategy to be eligible for the S&P 500. Book it! This is one reason why we should actually be a little happy—not like thrilled, but a little happy—that Bitcoin kind of struggled at the end of the year.
I'm actually kind of glad for this specific reason: that Bitcoin didn't stay up at like $108,000 or go to $110,000 or $115,000. It's going there, of course, but the fact that it took a little bit of a dump—as people were tax harvesting, by the way—and that's what happens at the end of every year. People sell their losses to offset gains that they had, and so there's a lot more sellers than there are buyers. That's called supply and demand, so there's downward pressure on the market typically at the end of most years.
Bitcoin experienced that, of course, as everybody does. And guess what? Now it's going to be so much easier for Micro Strategy to be eligible for the S&P 500 inclusion. As Matt points out here, Bitcoin only has to be at like $96,000 for when the FASB rules kick in—the fair accounting rules kick in—for Micro Strategy to have that income eligibility requirement checked, which is the last check that they need to be eligible for the S&P 500. That would be monumental!
Now, of course, there's still a committee that has to decide, and they're probably going to shun Micro Strategy for a quarter or two, possibly like they shunned Tesla for a couple of quarters. But inevitability, my friends, inevitability!
Dan Hilarious is a great person to follow. He's been getting a little more active recently. He says, "I know that a lot of people have been saying that they round-tripped. They wrote MSTR up and down. I completely agree; it was euphoric. But there is no down based on all the metrics we find valuable. The company is stronger than ever. The price doesn't reflect the new developments, but time is the antidote. Time is the antidote, my friends. Time will always win out, so just stack harder."
Speaking of stack harder, Stack Hodler—I just love his tweets here—says, "This Bitcoin bull run is just getting started. The market makers have been keeping everything remarkably orderly. They're cooking this bull low and slow like a great barbecue brisket. As soon as the indicators start to get a bit heated, the market makers jump in to systematically exterminate degens on both sides and give things time to cool off. Spot holders benefit as usual—that's you, hopefully, and that's me for sure. I'm a spot holder. I just buy and I hold. I'm not using leverage; I'm not buying MSTR, MSTRX, or MSTRY. I'm just buying Micro Strategy.
It's clear that the powers that be want this to go higher. Bitcoin will soon be big business for them. Don't fight the mega trend in 2025. Don't fight it, my friends! Let's just enjoy it.
Now, I have a couple of video clips from both American Hodl and British Hodl. They were interviewed, and specifically, British Hodl had some really interesting things to say about a $35,000 Micro Strategy price target and that being bearish by him.
Take it away!
"Personally, I think that you're going to see a ton of MSTR copycats, but MSTR will be the biggest gorilla. There is not going to be a bigger company that's valued more than MSTR today that's going to be bigger than MSTR when it comes to their Bitcoin holdings. It is done. MSTR has a first-mover advantage. That's why you want to own the one that has the first-mover advantage. To me, there is no way anyone else can catch up with it. Why? Because they cannot shut off their main business. Microsoft would have to shut off their main business to buy that amount of Bitcoin. And by the way, while they buy that amount of Bitcoin, it increases the value of MSTR because they're buying the same asset.
So I think MSTR is the one and done as far as the biggest one in the biggest gorilla in the cage. And there's not going to be a Microsoft or someone like that that comes in to compete with MSTR because these are very, very strategic businesses—very important businesses that you cannot just turn off. So that's what I think is going to happen. I think MSTR has won this by a mile. Now you just got to drag along with MSTR's rocket ship."
So then how high does this thing go? How high does MSTR go? How much Bitcoin is it dependent on how much debt they could essentially scoop up? Because Michael Saylor keeps getting billions and billions of dollars more worth of debt to keep scooping it up, it seems like weekly now.
So how much can he scoop up at this point? Well, they've been selling down stock right now, which is problematic for the average person that's buying deep out of the money two-week call options—short-term calls.
Yeah, but basically, they've been given permission to sell $21 billion worth of stock. He said it was going to take three years to do it, and he's done it in three months. I think they're on to the last $7.7 billion. Based on his Bloomberg interviews, it looks like they're going to pivot from that and focus more on the debt markets coming up in the next ones, which is good, right?
So how much is my price target for MSTR? I put it out there as $35,000 a share at the current dilution levels within 10 years.
And what's the implied Bitcoin price?
A million dollars.
Yeah, yeah.
So, alright then, $35k MSTR share—I'm bearish because if you take Saylor's own calculations when he said it's going to get to $13 million or grow at 29%, if you just grow that, his estimation last time I checked was like $90,000 a share.
Yeah, work out!
Sheesh! And that's in like a 10-year time period, is that correct?
Yeah, I mean, that's what it would turn out to.
Well, there you have it, my friends! Another episode of Micro Strategy Today. If you haven't commented yet, please do about where you're watching from. Even if you've already commented on prior videos, do it on every video because I'm collecting video-specific data from where people that invest in Micro Strategy are watching videos like this from.
I'm going to compile the data, I'm going to share it with Micro Strategy, and I'm going to share it with you as well. Remember, this video is my opinions only; this is not financial advice.
I will end with thank you for watching this. If you found value, you're going to see a subscribe button pop up right here. Subscribe to the video, and you're going to actually see the complete history of Micro Strategy pop up over here. It's a 1 hour and 40 minute presentation that I created of the complete history of Micro Strategy from Michael Saylor's perspective.
It's an hour and 40 minutes, so maybe you watch it in bite-sized pieces or go for a long walk or a long drive. It's pretty visual, though, so you're going to want to probably be able to view things as well.
Thank you, my friends, for watching. Your subscribes, your likes, your comments—they're all seen, they're all appreciated. I'm here working hard for you to get Micro Strategy out to the world, to let people understand what this mega trade is—the Amazon of fixed income.
A little teaser for the complete history of Micro Strategy video coming up. And until then, remember: Michael Saylor says there is no second best!