Transcription
What's going on, guys? I hope you all had a fantastic 3-day weekend. But guess what? It is time to step back into the office, load up tools, and get some setups going.
In today's video, I want to break down four setups that I think look fantastic heading into this next week. Three of them look like no-brainers, and one of them is a name that's very volatile, so we'll have to see what happens. But I want to prepare you with at least four names that I really think you should be looking at heading into next week. Hope you guys enjoy it! Press that like button and subscribe to the channel if you do. Let's jump right in.
So, guys, the first chart we are looking at today is Amazon. And man, when I look at this daily chart, I just cannot get out of my mind how clean this is and how perfect this breakout would be. I really don't see what's holding this back. There seems to be a bullish vibe in the market right now. We have a nice uptrending market, and we had a nice reversal last week after a little bit of concern, but a strong breakout heading into the coming week, heading into inauguration and heading into Trump taking office. It seems like there is a recipe for a breakout here.
Of course, technicals and price are always king, so we're going to have to see how this plays out. We're not going to get biased by all that stuff going on, but the technicals are just firing here. In my opinion, this looks fantastic. This looks like a daily chart break and retest, a daily chart bull flag, and maybe, just maybe, and I don't want to say this with too much confidence, but maybe the Nancy Pelosi buy that we saw come in this weekend is the cherry on top that sends this thing higher.
We'll see what happens in the overnight session tonight, but right now, I would say and I would expect Amazon to be looking at a gap up here into Tuesday morning. For now, let me just go through the technicals and show you why I like it, why I think it's a great setup, and you can take what you want out of this video today.
So right here, guys, I mean, this just looks like a flag, right? That's a beautiful bull flag. You got your very clean little flag pull right here, you have your flag right here, and man, that consolidation just looks very, very nice for that potential breakout move. Not only is this a bull flag on the daily chart, but where it's setting up is just perfect. We have a previous all-time high right here at $216, which turned into the exact low of last week, right at the daily 50 SMA.
So you have a previous all-time high break and retest, the retest coming back down to the exact previous all-time high, coming right into the daily 50 SMA, creating a bullish consolidation bull flag. All we really need, in my opinion, is a break over these flat highs right here around 229, which I will break down in just a second, and I think you will start to see this sort of fire to the upside.
Now, of course, in this type of consolidation, we could always need another move to the downside and sort of get tighter in this flag before a breakout. So is it potentially still pending? Yes. Does it have to happen next week? No. Is the setup still alive if it doesn't happen next week? Yes. Even a pullback at this point to 216 is still a very bullish setup that is forming.
So we'll have to see if it does fire this week, but I think you definitely need to at least have eyes on this. The fact that we came on a break and retest of the exact previous all-time high, the fact that you came back down to that daily 50, and the fact that you're looking at a very bullish consolidation after a major move, I think is priming something here.
If you look at what's happened on Amazon in the past, you guys can see right here is a very similar chart setup, right? And this one actually had less consolidation. So you have a break, retest, break of this high right here, retest of that high right here of $195, which led to a measured move of around 20%, 18%. Now, of course, I don't really use measured moves too much, but if you pull 18% from that low, you're looking at around $255 as the potential measured move of a breakout here on Amazon.
Of course, anything can happen. I'm unsure if that's really what my target will be on this trade, but for now, guys, this looks like a beautiful setup, and I would be paying attention.
Now, if we jump into the 1-hour chart, I want to go ahead and break down some levels that I think you need to break before this really gets going. There's one last level, one last level that I think really sets this off, and it's between, you know, it's not perfect right now, it's between 228, definitely 228, and of course 231, which is these highs here.
So I'm watching between the 228. I'm actually going to watch the 228 to 229 zone. I think that's a proper zone to be watching, right? Anywhere between 228 and 229 might get a little bit heavy, right? Because we can see previous rejections here. We can see a rejection right here. We can see failures here, right? Which was a previous attempt of a hold and previous failure.
So we definitely can see that the 228-229 zone is going to be very heavy. Let's be careful of that, right? Because this could just sort of pop and reject just like it did here, right? We sort of saw that push here into 228-229, and that failure came in, right? So we need to, of course, be aware of that as we step into this week.
We're not looking at setups today and just mindlessly longing and blowing our accounts because we're longing into supply. Okay, let me make that very clear. Now, we still have this supply here at 228. Let's be careful of it, right? But let's also understand when we're looking at this chart, right? And this is something I've talked about in my last video.
While we're looking at this chart, make sure we understand still the magnitude of the daily chart, right? The magnitude of the daily chart being a potential breakout is absolutely there. So let's not forget about that, right? I wouldn't technically be looking to short Amazon at these supply highs around 228-229. Really not interested in shorting into a daily chart bull flag setup, right?
But at least let's be cautiously long short term as we approach that supply. Let's at least be understanding that that could be a rejection point if we are trading into it, right? So let's be careful there. 228-229, if we get above 229, I think you're rocketing to new highs, 231, probably 233s up here, right? I think if you clear out this 228-229 zone, that would really just sort of set the buyers up for that all-time high push and probably a breakout at that point if the market is strong.
We shall see. So, moral of the story here, guys, Amazon is the top watch of next week. I'm already exposed to it. The Discord's exposed to it. You guys know if you're part of the group, we've been long this thing for a few weeks now. You know, not a few weeks, but a week, week and a half. We've been sort of monitoring, entering, exiting, taking some profits, and just positioning ourselves correctly to be long Amazon in this daily chart setup. I think it's the proper read.
Let's go ahead and see what happens. If this bull flag does break, this is going to get really sexy really quick, and maybe, just maybe, we're on the right side with Nancy Pelosi here.
So that's number one, that's Amazon. Number two, guys, is Google. And funny enough, it's another Nancy stock. I don't know, maybe Nancy's watching the technical analysis videos. Maybe Nancy is just a technical analysis trader because the two things that she just bought, Amazon and Google, look absolutely fantastic in terms of technicals for me, right? It just looks great.
So let's go ahead and talk about this right here. Let me go out to the daily chart real quick. I'm going to pull this out a little bit more, and we're going to go ahead and take a look at this retest level that Google has been sort of staying above. It hasn't tested it perfectly, but it has absolutely been staying above it, and that is this zone right here, this 184 to 186 area.
This was this major previous high. You guys see right here these major previous double top highs. That was a major previous high on Google, right? This was also a very failure point back here in June and into July. What we can see here is we have just had a beautiful consolidation just right above this level, right? It's right here. You guys can see this consolidation right here, just a beautiful bullish consolidation above that previous high, and that to me is bullish all day.
The fact that Google has been able to squeeze above these double top highs and just bullish consolidation right above it, using these highs as a floor of this move, is A+ to me, right? And so this looks like a very strong bullish consolidation. As long as Google's over 184, this looks like the floor that needs to hold. I don't really think you're going to see that floor break. If you do see that floor break, then yeah, the market's probably looking pretty ugly at that point.
But for now, a beautiful floor at 184. You could go ahead and talk about this 193-194 level over here, which I'm going to go ahead and put on the charts right now. If we take a look at this, right, we have this 194 previous high back here. This is back in July. This was sort of that peak high at $194.
Let me go ahead and show you just what happened last week at $194. Take a look at this hourly chart. Last week, we had that 190 double bottom low. We had a 194 high. That 194 level broke here on Wednesday, and look at how that 194 level turned into the perfect low both Thursday and Friday.
So both Thursday and Friday, we had a low form on Google right above the daily 20 SMA. Let's not forget about that, right? Let me go ahead and make this a little bit thicker for you guys to see. Let's not forget that is right above the daily 20 SMA, right above these previous highs right here, turning that into a low. And guess what? That is not just an hourly higher low forming here, right? This is not just a beautiful, I mean perfect stair-stepping formation above 194.
That is 194 from back here, right? And so that hold above 194 last week into the end of last week and that push higher, I think, is incredibly important, right? We can see the bullish action coming off that 194, and if this thing can break these very clear flat highs at $200 per share, I would absolutely be paying attention to this.
Now, here's the caveat, right, guys? And this is what I talk about all the time, and this is what, as traders, we need to always remember. No matter how bullish I may be or someone you hear online may be, you still need to understand technical analysis and where your risk-reward is, correct?
This is something, of course, I will pay attention to here if I do take this trade. There is no room to be entering Google at the current spot. At the current spot, right? This is not an entry point on the long side on Google. It never has been, and it is not now, right? Right here, rejection, rejection, rejection, rejection, rejection.
So we need to be aware of that possibility next week. We're not just mindlessly longing into that 200 level. But what I would look for, right, is the higher low attempt that is trying to create itself here, right? And so what you need to see here is potentially a hold over 197 or a pullback long at 194. Those are your entry points that you can look for.
Look for a solid push over 197 to long into that supply, right? Potentially taking profits into it, or look for a pullback long back to that 194, back to that daily 20 SMA, setting up maybe that higher low, right here on a double bottom. That could be very nice.
So look for those pullback long entries into 200. Don't just start slamming calls as you hit $200, right? If we break over 200 and we turn this into support, then yeah, right? We're going right. That's the okay. Google's going to new highs. If we hold above 200 next week, that's for sure a setup you would be looking for on a break and retest of this very, very clear triple top sort of flat top high right here. Very, very nice.
So we can look for that break over 200 and that break and retest. But what I would prefer to look for is probably a pullback to 194 on a 20 SMA retest or even a pullback to this 197 and a strong maintain of that level right there. So those are my two levels.
And of course, right, of course, I don't think we're going to get this, but of course, if you get a gift back at 190, then you're absolutely looking for that long down here to see if Google can remain on that sort of demand low down at 190.
So either way, if you zoom out here and we look at the bigger picture, once again, the fact that Google has been consolidating above this very clear previous high, bullish consolidation here, you get a break of those highs, this thing looks like it's ready to go. Let's go ahead and see what the market has to say next week.
All right, guys, so the third setup that we're going to be talking about here today is Costco. Team COST, man, do I love this stock. I was just at Costco today. I spent about $600. Costco, man, that money goes quick. And then it was packed. I know a lot of people are spending. Costco is just a beast, a behemoth of a name. And when you get pullbacks on Costco, you better be paying attention, right? That's at least what the chart has shown you.
If you look at this chart, look at the chart, right? Zoom out, look at this chart over the last 15 years, right? You know, this is really—I can't get all 15 in here for you—but this is 2018. This over here is 2025. Look at the chart. Pullback longs every single day. I mean, not every day, right? But you get the story. You get my excitement behind this chart, right? Look at this thing. It's a beautiful chart, a beautiful company. When you get a pullback, you better pay attention because there are opportunities out there.
So let me go ahead and just zoom in the last year, right? Let me go ahead and zoom into just the last year, and let's go ahead and take a look at the uptrend that we are looking at right now. Since April of 2024, you have been on this perfect uptrend, and every pullback back towards that uptrend has been a buying opportunity.
Every pullback back to that uptrend has been a buying opportunity. Every pullback back to that uptrend has been a buying opportunity. I think absolutely 100%. Why not again, right? Look at the pullback opportunities on this Costco chart right here, right here, and why not here? Why not take that risk-reward? You're taking that 10 out of 10 times. You cannot second guess that. That looks fantastic.
Now, not only did every pullback long—I don't want to use that squiggly line—not only did every pullback long come right into that uptrending move right here, but what else did it come into? It came right into—and I'm going to go ahead and hide these just for visual purposes—it came right back into the 100 SMA every single time, right? Right here, 100 SMA uptrend. Right here, 100 SMA and uptrend. And right here, 100 SMA and uptrend.
Now let me add one more thing to that pie to make it even more sweet, and that is the fact that this is a previous major high right here that has turned into support. That, my friends, would be the break and the retest, right? And so right here, you have one, a break and retest. That's number one. That is a break and retest.
Number two, you have an uptrend, right? Uptrend, very sloppy, but you get the picture. Uptrend, where's that? Right here. Number three, you have the 100 daily moving average. I don't know why I put a B daily moving average. That is right here, here, and here.
So for me, that is called risk-reward, right? Every day of the week, I'm already long Costco. We had a fantastic day on this trade on Friday. I would be absolutely watching this one into next week. Let's see if this continues. It looks like we're going to need sort of a break above this 950 spot. This looks like to be the next major spot.
So go ahead and put a little level here at 950. That looks like a very major level right there, all right? At the 950 supply, 947-950. I'm going to go ahead and pop it up to 950 just to sort of tail that full whole number, right? That 950 potential supply. I would go ahead and pop it up to that. Above that, I think you have this 960 spot above that. I'm looking at this 980 spot, and above that, I think you're headed to the 1,000.
So right now, I would be thinking risk-reward off that 100 SMA, off that 910-900 area. Watch out for 950. Watch out for 960. Let's see what happens here. The only caveat to this one is there's a strike that's going on this weekend. I'm not sure how this affects Costco's stock price. Let's be careful of that heading into next week. Let's just make sure we understand that.
So, guys, the last, and I know the favorite of everyone, is Tesla. Right? Tesla. What's Tesla going to do? Let's go ahead and take a look at it. It had a rip on Friday, did give back some of its move, but man, is there something I think very clean going on here? Let me go ahead and break this down.
So since the lows, right? Actually, let me go and start with the flag. Let's start with the bigger picture. Let's start with the flag. Let's go to the daily chart and take a look at this. Now you have a very, very clear breakout of this downtrend on Tesla last week. Now, the only thing that's sort of iffy to me is that I would have loved for this breakout to happen on a retest of 360 right here. I would have loved for it to exactly hit that level.
Now, it didn't do that. It went down to a low of 373, so it was about 10 points off that low. Do I think that's a big deal? Probably not. Would I be like just fully, fully much more confident if it did? Yes, let me make that clear.
Now we can very easily and clearly see that it did break the downtrend that it was sort of sitting in. You can see this sort of downtrending move. It created that double bottom low, created that retest low around that 360 spot, and has now seen a breakout move.
Now, the sell-off into Friday close, as of now, I want to say I'm not concerned about that. I don't think you have to be. I think it overextended itself into the day, right? It was really overextended, did on the intraday sort of got some, I guess, FOMO into it, and you started to see that sort of end-of-day sell-off that sometimes is very typical of Tesla.
So regardless of whatever you may think that end-of-day move was, let's just go ahead and talk about the levels that are showing right now and the stair-step formation that I think is very clean and something you can easily follow, right? Whether you think Tesla is going to go higher or not, you can clearly follow how these levels are playing, and you can play the correct side of what the levels are showing. Very, very clean, and that's really all we need, right? That's really all we want. All we need is to be able to have clear levels, read them correctly, and make money both directions.
But for now, I would say this is your sort of short-term bottom that has come in. We can see that 373 to 380 low, very clear double bottom down there on Tesla. Now, after that low, we can see a higher low was created right here at $395. So that's our new low. Now above that, you guys can see we had this low that was now created at that 410 area.
So we have now a higher low formation very clearly on Tesla: one, two, and three uptrending here on Tesla. Now, every single time we created that new low, you can see we also created a new high: right? New high, new high, and new high.
So right now, it's pretty clear that Tesla's in this uptrending move, and we can continue to follow this. So here, coming into next week, I would be looking for us to hold above these previous highs right around this $425 range, that low that came in on Friday end of day. If Tesla can hold above that 425-430 zone, then I think you're going to go up higher, right? Move up back to that 440, and at that point, you're going to want to see that break and hold above what? 440, which would then push us into the 456, which would continue the uptrending move.
If Tesla does break this 425 level, then we need to be aware that Tesla probably is going to move back down to this previous low around that 410-414 zone. We just need to be aware of those short-term movements that are possible, right? Tesla is a very volatile name. This is the one that I talked about in the beginning of the video as just a more volatile name. You have to be aware of the levels, be trustworthy of them, and comfortable in your size, right?
Because Tesla could drop all day tomorrow and still be a very bullish setup at that 410-414, right? But some trader that's not really aware of what's going on may panic out of that position, may get scared because they're over-leveraged, get out of the position, and then maybe a week from now they see it up here at 490, 460, 470, and they say, "Holy crap! Tuesday was just a pullback long. Why did I exit that position?"
How you stay in a position comfortably is to understand your levels, have comfortable size, and let this play out. So coming into tomorrow, I would be looking for this 425-430 zone to hold. I would be looking for that 410 area as your pullback long, and I would need to see a break over that 440 to really think that Tesla is on that breakout move.
So, guys, those are going to be the setups that I am watching very closely into next week. If you want to get updated on the levels on the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 futures, you know where to come every single morning at 8:00 a.m. for the YouTube live stream. Be there tomorrow morning where we review the levels in the pre-market and, of course, on some individual equities.
If you enjoyed today's video, if it helped you guys set up for next week, please press that like button, subscribe to the channel, and I will see you in the next one. Peace out!