Transcription
Welcome back to Plan B on YouTube. Today, we analyze January closing values of the Bitcoin price, RSI, moving average, realized price, and stock-to-flow. As always, the conclusion is in the last part of the video, so please stick to the end.
Bitcoin price: we have a new monthly close all-time high in Bitcoin. It's $102,000. Not only is it a new monthly close, it's also the first monthly close above 100K.
I know it feels a bit disappointing, and that we should be higher with Trump and the ETF inflow, MicroStrategy, and all that. It feels a bit delayed, but I guess we need a little bit of patience.
As we discussed in last videos, new all-time highs, which are basically the red dots, it's RSI. We come back to that in a minute. The new all-time highs are clustered, so once there is an all-time high, it's very likely there will be another all-time high. You can see that very clearly from this chart.
I expect a lot more all-time highs this year. This is exactly, by the way, why I prefer the stock-to-flow model over, for example, the power law model. The clustered nonlinear jumps are what defines the price of Bitcoin, and it's not gradually over time.
It's especially those short periods of time where Bitcoin jumps to the next level. It's also the basis for my stock-to-flow trading rule that says that all the Bitcoin gains are six months before the halving until 18 to 20 months after the halving. Every halving, it's the same pattern, and well, up till now, it also holds for this 2024 halving.
So if we talk about colors, look at the RSI, the relative strength index. It's 76 right now. Orange 76 is above 50, so it's an uptrend. From 14 months, right? The relative strength index is calculated over a certain period; it's 14 months.
So there is an uptrend, not as steep as a red period would be with RSIs of 80 and higher. RSI is 76, so it's a relatively okay uptrend, but not the formal part. The orange is very comparable to the end of 2020 or even more to the beginning of 2017.
So we had orange, yellow, orange. Same here: orange, yellow, orange. Or even if we compare to 2013, the orange was the start of this, well, cluster of all-time highs, if you will, a cluster of RSIs of 80 or higher.
I expect many months this year in 2025 with an RSI of 80 or higher. In fact, to be specific, I expect at least three, possibly four or five months of red dots, which means an RSI of 80 and higher.
Now, what's very interesting, if we look historically at those points where the RSI was 80 or higher, then we'll see that the average return in those periods, in those red dot areas, was 40% plus.
So that means a one month of 40% plus would be from today's 100K to 140 in February. And well, since I expect multiple months of red dots, at least three times 40% would bring us from 100K to 270K, which is about here somewhere, the 300K line.
So that's the absolute minimum Bitcoin price that I expect in 2025: 270,000. Now, if we look at four months of 40%, that would bring the current 100K to 380,000, and five months would even bring it to $530,000.
So that's above this dotted line. We'll see what happens. These numbers, 270, 380, and 530,000 Bitcoin, are much higher than what most people expect.
In fact, today's poll on Twitter on X shows that three out of four people can't even imagine one single plus 40% monthly move because they haven't been in those periods. They don't know what it is. They think that's a thing of the past and it can't happen in the future.
What I think will most certainly happen again. Very interesting to see: the 200-week moving average, the black line, it's at 44 right now, up 1,000K from last month, from December.
In my opinion, that slow increase will go faster in the next couple of months. So I think the black line, the moving average, will curve upwards like it did in 2020, 2021, 2017, and here in 2013.
So I think this black line will curve upwards. Then, realized price, the gray line, it's the cost price of the buyers of the last two years. Right here is a two years realized price, cost price of the on-chain buyers last two years.
It is $74,000, up from 71 in December. And by the way, the total realized price of all the on-chain buyers ever is 43,000. So that's the same level, comparable level to the 200-week moving average.
But we see that the realized prices are increasing about 5% each month. That's good; that's a bull market thing, but it's less than I expected. I expect 10% or 20% increases in realized prices this year.
So that means that prices have to go up considerably to make that happen. Now for the stock-to-flow, you know, it predicts this average price of about $500,000 for the halving period 2024 to 2028, with a standard deviation, of course.
It will not be exactly 500,000, so the standard deviation is two times that: 1 million, or divide it by two, 250K. And mind you, most other models, for example, the power law model, expect much lower prices.
They expect something like we go from the current 100,000 to a 200,000 top this year and then we crash back to below 100K. So that's much lower than even the lower band of the stock-to-flow model of 250K and also lower than the 270,000 that we talked about based on three 40% increases this year, three red dots, three RSI months of 80 plus.
So very interesting to see what happens next. And as always, all models are wrong; some are useful. Models are simplifications of reality.
Thanks for watching, and see you next time.