Hello and welcome to the official Super Coach AFL podcast. It is January 21st, 2025, and Phantom, we're back!

We are back! Our Super Coach is officially open. We've been tinkering with our team, Super Coach Plus subscribers on the team pick it, but the game is officially out there. Hopefully, you're out there already playing around and picking your side.

But it's always a good day. It makes it more official; it makes it real. Footy is almost back, and Super Coach is certainly back for 2025. Absolutely! I'm your host, Al Peyton, and that, of course, was the voice of the Phantom.

Now, Dossy and myself have been doing podcasts for a few weeks now. Go back and listen to our chats on Primos, mid-prices, pods—lots of great content there to get your season started.

But Dossy, great to have you back! We know Super Coach is really here when the Phantom is diving in.

Yeah, we absolutely know that he's back. You know, he's been having a little bit of time off, hasn't really checked his team from what I've heard—just been on holiday mode. So, interested to see if he's really got some insights that we can take away.

You and I are already very well and truly deep into our preseason research. If you saw that first team, you know it doesn't need a lot of work, so it's already looking pretty good for 2025.

But Dossy, just looking, feeling a little bit too comfortable in the lair for my liking, especially after what he produced last year. Shouldn't look so comfortable. Big, big year ahead!

Yes, absolutely! Now, we're also joined by a very special guest on today's show—the fantasy goat himself, Selby. I know he doesn't call himself that, but we like to use the title, AKA Mor's Magic. Two-time winner of AFL Fantasy, top 10 finisher, I believe, in Super Coach.

Selby, great to have you back on for our launch day show! How are you, and how are you feeling about Super Coach in 2025?

Thanks, mate! Good to be on. Yeah, I certainly don't call myself the goat; I know that Dossy calls himself that, so I'll leave that to him. Good to chat to you both, and always good to chat Super Coach. Fantastic!

So, plenty to get into today. Reminder to everybody: like and subscribe to get all your great Super Coach content on wherever you're listening to this, or get over to Code Sports' YouTube page where you can watch all this on video, including seeing the Phantom on video, which is a great experience, I can guarantee.

So, don't miss out on that! Today, we will be asking and hopefully answering the biggest questions of Super Coach 2025. We put a call out on social media earlier today; there are some great questions there, so we'll get into those in a little bit.

But first of all, I've got a few to get us started. Going around the table, I thought we'd just kick off with what is the biggest question and talking point in your mind as we go into another Super Coach season.

So, Phantom, as Dossy said, you're back from holidays. You've been thinking about Super Coach, I'm sure, all that time. What do you think is the biggest question we're going to hopefully have answers to by the end of this season?

Plenty of big questions for 2025. A few new features, of course, we've discussed on previous shows, which we will mention shortly. But I've been thinking: have we been thinking too much?

I think we did say a little bit last year—we sort of worked it out later in the season—that we did probably think too much into what the opening round meant for Super Coach.

Obviously, we know points didn't count in the newly introduced opening round the AFL brought in in 2024, which meant those few teams had the early season bye. We worried about those byes a lot in Super Coach. Did it have a big effect? Maybe we got a bit lucky in the end, and that helped us to some degree too.

But with the introduction of the flex position in 2025, and not a free hit—probably the wrong word when we're talking about your best 22 scoring and not your 23rd player, which is your flex position—I think it gives us a little bit more, even more leeway, if you like, and flexibility, given the name of the position, to not worry too much about those early season byes.

I think you've got the coverage there. Maybe the top end, your premium count and your premiums with that early bye, you can think twice about when we're talking about your mid-price value or your rookies. I don't think we need to worry about that early bye too much. I think we'll get enough out of them anyway, and with that flex scoring, we'll be able to cover them.

So, the big question for me is: did we overthink it last year? Do we need to worry about it as much this year?

Well, yeah, just to let people know off the top that obviously the AFL's opening round is coming back in 2025, and the Super Coach rules will be as they were last year, where those opening round scores don't count towards Super Coach.

But it does give us a bit of an early look at what those teams are doing. The downside is, of course, that they have byes in the first four rounds, I think it is, this year.

So, yeah, I'm really divided on this one because I think one of the lessons I did learn last year was to not worry too much about it, as you said. And probably, you know, wish I had started a Josh Dunkley or a Lachie Neale that we all avoided because they had a bye earlier in the season.

What an amazing part he would have been if we'd had him that whole time! But when you're weighing up two, you know, especially primos at the top end, and you're trying to find a reason to pick one over the other, and one has a bye and one doesn't, it's pretty hard to fight back and pick the guy who's going to miss a game earlier in the year.

But am I doing that wrong, Selby, in the sense that, like, as Phantom says, especially with flex coming in, you've got best 18 scoring in those rounds. Plenty of cover for, especially when we're talking about guys maybe at the, you know, not at the top, top end of the price bracket.

You know, we can get away with skipping one or two of them on the bench, and it's not actually going to hurt us too much in those early rounds. Then you get the benefit of them for the rest of the year.

Yeah, definitely! The 23rd helps that too. Looking at last year, you do get a few free hits. I'm not sure how many teams would have started a Matt Roberts if he didn't put up their good round zero score.

So it allowed you to pick him with confidence, knowing that he's got a good role. Then again, people did react. Like, I know coaches traded out Max Gawn after the opening round because he got tagged by Grundy. If you're one of those, then you're certainly behind the eight ball for the first 11 or so weeks.

So that's kind of the question I'm asking myself if we're asking questions about what we're thinking leading into 2025.

So I've been playing Super Coach pretty seriously now for three years. First year, you mentioned I think I came seventh in the end. Second year, I was around the point end and then ran out of trades—sort of a theme the last three years, which I get to the trades in a bit.

But I think I finished top 200 second year, and then last year used the exact same strategy, which is very much targeting those value players—players who aren't fully priced, you think they've got some upside on their score.

I came somewhere in the top 2,000. I claimed it because it was still 1%, but I think the rounding number was probably one or two ranks off going to 2%.

So the question I've got for this opening round—and obviously there's the best 18 for those first four weeks, I believe, is it? Or first three weeks this year? I think slightly different—the value of having the value players, which I normally do.

So I didn't start a—you mentioned Neale or Dunkley—but even a Tom Green, any of these top premiums, a Luke Ryan. I started more of a Matt Crouch and Ollie Wines, a Riley Bonner, who all came out and outperformed their price and did well.

The value of having those cheaper guys meant that you had one or two less rookies on your field. So while a Riley Bonner's not going to score as much as a Tom Green, and I was giving away 30, 40 points on a normal week, the aim was to have a Riley Bonner on there rather than having a rookie who might score a 30 or 40 for other coaches.

And that's how you're going to take the leap. Whereas these best 18s last year, those 30 or 40s from the rookies didn't matter. And then adding the flex coming in this year, those 30 or 40s aren't going to matter.

So is it worth still doing what I did the first two seasons and prove to be a success targeting value and limiting rookies on the field? Or are we better off going guns and rooks and getting those big high scorers?

Because in the best 18 world, when Luke Ryan was doing 140s and Tom Green was doing 140s, if you're missing out on them, you're left behind come round six, which is what I was this time last year.

Yeah, it's really tricky. Just checking the fixture, it is round one—every team plays once—but then you've got byes round two and four, and then we're back into sort of normal scoring until then we get a bunch more byes in the middle of the year.

But so it's one fewer bye round early on, one less best 18. So whether that affects your thinking on that at all. And then, yeah, obviously the other complication, Dossy, is that this year there's so many of those great value picks who look like they could score above their average, and it's hard to pick who you want to go without in that bracket.

Yeah, I mean, following that sort of winning formula that you've gone with so many times in the past, Selby, it does seem like this year has perhaps more of an abundance of those players than ever before. Just players that we've trusted in the past that have had such solid Super Coach history of scoring, and they're all available for dirt cheap, partially thanks to Bev, of course, with a few of those guys.

But there seems to be just a lot of value that provides plenty of options for us, regardless of the line. I'm seeing plenty in defense, forward—obviously forwards is quite heavy—and then the midfield even.

So I think following your traditional strategy, it would be quite hard to go against those players. But to your point as well, I guess weighing up how many of those guns can you then sort of hold in your team and then pivot your strategy to get in these mid-prices.

So, yeah, very, very interested in the way you're leaning, and it sounds like you're considering a different approach to this season, given the new rule of flex—dropping off the one player, your worst score every week gets dropped off.

So maybe you're thinking you could attack a harder guns and rookies approach than maybe you ever have before.

Yeah, and obviously with these byes, what, there's three in the first four weeks? It means you can also loop your rookies. So not only have you got extra comfort knowing that of your 23, only 18 are going to count those rounds, but of those 23, you might be able to have two looks at a rookie.

So all you need to get is one of them to score a 75 and 80, and you've knocked that mid-pricer on the head anyway, and the value of that mid-pricer goes away.

So you're right, I was considering pivoting from that proven formula, but obviously don't want to overreact to one year of these best 18s early round fixtures.

So maybe that was just a one-off. We saw Tom Green, who was the poster boy of the early round premium, who people did pay up for. I think he played North Melbourne, West Coast the first two weeks and punched out big scores.

But then he showed in the mid and back end of the year that he was just scoring, just barely getting to 100. Where if that happened early in the year, then maybe I would have had that nice little leap, which I've done in the past.

So you've mentioned those names—the value this year is going to be very hard saying no to those. But then again, we've got the money; we've got to spend it somewhere. If we're short-cutting in the forward line, which it sounds like lots are doing, Dossy dreams of finishing top 2,000 there, Selby.

So I think you'll be looking at your vice, but you spoke about that a couple of years ago. You might even amplify that strategy, given how good the draft was last year, what we've been told, how good it is.

And the top-end rookie bracket this year looks a good one. There are a few players who featured in the last couple of years who are in that price range too, and you might have to need that extra cash to get those top names just under 200k.

And that point differential you talk about there would be important. And I guess, like I said, there's only three byes this year. So is that enough to, you know, the top-end guys, if you go guns and rookies, is that enough to make up the difference between the four or five other rounds that you're playing those rookies on your field that aren't the top liners before you upgrade them?

What's the difference? I guess something we've got to weigh up. Something we don't know yet, really. We're going to have to wait and see exactly what the rookie crop looks like once we see who's trotted out on the park and who looks likely for round one.

We can talk about junior numbers; we can talk about guys training well on the track or making a good first impression during their first preseason. But we just need to wait and see who's going to be out there in round one.

We know it dictates a lot in our strategies. I'm going to jump in now with my big question, and it is around the flex position. It's been touched on a little bit already, but this year, big change in Super Coach—we have an extra player in our starting squads: 31 players overall. Each week, we pick 23 on field, including someone in that flex slot who can be a defender, mid, ruck, forward.

And as the Phantom mentioned, only your best 22 scores count. So it does change tactics a little bit this year. I'd be very interested to ask how people are approaching that.

And obviously, it helps just cover for those, you know, really unlucky situations where you get a laid-out that you didn't know about, or Tom Green gets injured in the first two minutes and scores five points. So it shouldn't kill your entire high score.

So that's the biggest change for Super Coach 2025. But there are some other cool things as well. People will notice when we get to the season, and we were using the trade assist feature. There's now some smart trade assist, extra customization you can use to tailor those trade suggestions based on break-evens, price projections, and things like that.

Three-way DPP moves is something I really like, where if you've got DPPs in, say, the backline, the midfield, and the ruck, you can now switch them all around in one move without having to trade anybody in or out, or necessarily a sort of a direct link to be able to do it, you know, just a straight swap between two guys.

So that'll be really handy, I think, during the season. And some other cool little features: a share button, which people might have seen already on Super Coach BBL. You can just hit that and share your screen with your score for the week or your trades or your team, which we'll be doing a lot in preseason.

Put that on social media or in emails, etc., etc. Animated live scores—so the description of this looks really cool. We just have to wait and see it in action when the games come around.

If you've got Super Coach Plus and you're seeing the live scores there, there will be little animations that tell you when players are jumping up or down. So you'll be able to see exactly who's moving around.

And also, some really good work is being done around Super Coach tips, which is our partner tipping site. So new features on there, joke rounds, things like that, and just making it easy to—if you've got a league in Super Coach, then you can easily recreate one with the same people over on Super Coach tips to do your tipping on there as well with the same login.

So it's all very easy to manage. But getting back to the flex, yeah, as I said, I'm curious to go around and see what other people think about how to use it.

I did hear, listening to the Dr. Super Coach guys talking about this, and I'll credit them. I think it was Pistol talking about how we'll probably have different phases of flex during the year.

At the end of the year, ideally, we want another primo sitting there, so you've got 23 primos scoring for you. During the middle of the year, maybe it's a good spot to—we've got an extra vehicle there to maybe jump on a cash train, something I know the Phantom loves talking about.

If you've got a Jordan Sweet pops up in round seven and you just want to get him to make that cash, but there's no obvious other way to stick him in your team, that could be the perfect spot for that.

And then in the starting squad, maybe it's a different role altogether. Maybe it's just a spot for an extra rookie or the mid-pricer that you can't fit in somewhere else.

But I have seen other people doing it different ways—just going straight out with another primo sitting there, a Tom De Koning type, I think, is appearing in a few teams.

And, you know, Matt Flynn as a cheaper ruckman seems like an ideal candidate if he can get on the park, which is still a bit of a question mark at this stage.

But, Selby, what are your thoughts on flex? Any early strategy on how you might approach it, especially when we're picking a starting squad?

Yeah, I like the flex. Obviously, as you mentioned, the Tom Green incident, which I think that was the week I traded him last year after he was doing those 140s when I didn't own him.

In real life, they get to sub him out and put someone else on. So I quite like that; that is a nice addition to the game. I'm playing a bit of cricket BBL Super Coach. I feel like we could have had four flexes a week there, like we had a few zeros in that department.

That's just sure how I'll use it. I know that was a lot of questions coming in, and you make a good point. I think Phantom alluded to the rookie or the draft and the numbers they put up as midfielders, whether it's a Levi Ashcroft or a Jag Smith, Xavier Lin, there's some really good rookies there.

And if I adopt my value strategy in the midfield again and have less rookies than normal, but I don't want to miss out on one of these rooks, like one of the ones I missed out on last year because of those value mid-prices was a Harley Reid, who I ended up trading back in after a few weeks I saw him play.

But it means I could get that extra rookie and not miss that but still get those valued players. But where I am leaning—and obviously, Super Coach is open today; it's still very early in the team build—but I love my rucks in Super Coach.

They're obviously the ones who get, I think, three points for hit-outs or advantages and contested possessions, and they tick the boxes for Super Coach scoring. You just got to look last year—some of those monster scores, whether it was Gawn first half of the year or Cherry and Marshall back half of the year, names like CIS throughout as well—they put up some big scores.

So being able to have three of those rather than being limited to two is where I'm probably angling for my flex so far with early iterations of the team.

Just on the ruckmen, as the man in the know over there in the west, I mentioned Matt Flynn couldn't get on the park last year. He might be battling at the moment to cheap in Super Coach. What do you think he can produce? Are we serious to consider him?

Well, there's lots of names in the ruck, especially in that value element. So I actually wouldn't mind him not getting a gig early, so it makes one less decision to make.

But if he is their starting ruck, he's obviously no world-beater, but as we've seen, starting rucks from any team, they just get gifted minimum 80, 85 points. So if that's the case, then he's a knockout pick at that price.

So, yeah, if he's starting as a solo ruck, I think I'd be looking to get him. Obviously, his numbers to date are well-beating at GWS, but you just saw he was playing ahead of Briggs before Briggs had his breakout.

So he was obviously showing more than him in the VFL up until Briggs got the nod, and then we've all seen what Briggs has done since then.

Big Pry, we remember him when he was on his day; he could also score. So I think he's got the potential to do so. Just whether West Coast want to go with him and sort of discount this Bailey Williams, who they've been giving him a crack for the last three years and should be coming into his prime.

So, yeah, not sure. I have no intel on how the West Coast are looking to line things up at the moment.

Dossy, is there any extra benefit? Obviously, it's looking like a popular strategy early days to pick a ruckman in that flex spot, apart from the fact that they do just score a lot of points.

Are there any other benefits to doing that, given that now we have a bit of a cover there? Whoever you've got in flex, if maybe misses a week that we haven't had in the past?

I suppose just to Sel's point before, I just always attribute rucks to having that safe floor score as well as the huge ceiling. So when you're talking about a Matt Flynn, if he is named round one and we're confident he's got the gig, I think just the benefit of having that ruckman there is knowing that he's going to be in the midfield.

He's going to be around the ball all the time, getting hit-outs to advantage. So I think that's the only real decision to make as to early days what position you want.

And I think it's just the role of the ruckman is just the safe one to play. But I also have toyed around in the early days of just having one of those basement price players or even a mid-pricer that I can't quite fit in.

Because even in the defensive line, there's maybe quite a bit of value that we have there. I wouldn't mind starting with an extra value option and maybe one of those players with an extra bye round player, as we said, so that I can still get that cash gen but maybe have a bit of a fallback plan to switch out of there during those byes.

So I think there is—I think that's the beauty of it overall, though. There's just that many different strategies. And I think, again, to Sel's point, if Matt Flynn is named round one, I think that's going to be a really popular starting option.

And going against that could be someone's point of difference as well. So, yeah, the flex position is going to be potentially an unanswerable question, given it is the first year we're seeing it in action, but could be the game-winning strategy figuring out how to use it best.

Phantom, and I guess the other factor is just that with the rucks we mentioned, you're limited to two of them or may have three if we're counting the bench. So it just gives you a way to pick another player in that position that we know scores so well.

It's true! And just had a quick look again for ruckmen averaging 110 or more in 2024. We know the safe element of their scoring. As we mentioned, they're around the ball; they get their hands on the ball; they're rewarded for that.

So again, only four, if we're talking at the numbers, will average 110. In a percentage, it obviously is more than another position, but you know a lot of good midfielders, defenders, and forwards getting around too.

Levi Ashcroft, as we mentioned, also at the top is in my flex spot at the moment as that extra top-price rookie that might not be able to fit on the field in the midfield with the rest of who I've picked so far.

So if all goes to plan and these kids do come through as we hope and as we're hearing about and do get picked in round one or the opening round of the season, then I think we might need that overflow spot for that top-end rookie.

All right, Dossy, I think 24 minutes in, we probably should ask you what's your big question for 2025? Any questions about Doy?

My big question comes, and I'm very happy we've got the great man who has made the conversion across to Super Coach to ask this question specifically. Mora's Magic obviously had some great success on AFL Fantasy with plenty of trades to use over there.

I'm also a recent convert and found myself doing amazing in the early parts of the season before running out of trades quite quickly. I found that aggressive trading strategy early in the game really did position me quite well early, but then, as I said, ran out of trades pretty quickly and struggled in the back half of the year.

I think I was top 700 after, you know, it was 15 rounds in. I think I was 700th and then plummeted to around the 10K mark, which is usually my standard season anyway.

But Selby, how did you find managing your trades? You had two fantastic seasons over there. You've come across; you've gone top 10 immediately over in Super Coach as well, and even a top couple of thousand finish last season.

You said you had some struggles, but how do you go about managing your trades and the benefit of holding them towards the back end of the season for anyone that's trying Super Coach for the first time or struggles like I do in managing my trades?

Yeah, probably the wrong person to ask because I've run out of trades with a couple of weeks to go in each of the last three seasons. So that year, the top 10 finish, who knows what that could have been? I don't think I would have won it, but I was obviously copying donuts that year.

And then even the year after, I think I had both a De Goey and a Ridley in defense, and they both missed the last four weeks, and I copped the donuts there as well. Whereas last year, I tried to be a bit more conservative with them, and then because I was behind the eight ball after these early bye rounds and these best 18s, I think I was coming something like 15, 20,000 like round six.

So I just had to be aggressive with them to try to trigger something, where I probably wish I held them because, again, as I said, I run out of trades anyway.

And the point of difference could have been that I had the trades up my sleeve last year. I think the one advantage of Super Coach—I love the fixed trade nature because it rewards those coaches who do make a good pick.

You've talked about all these value players, and that's why I like to start them, because if you've got them and the other coaches don't and they do pop, they're going to have to waste a trade on that player, and you're one step ahead of the comp.

So I like the fact that you get a bit more reward than you do in Fantasy for your good picks rather than the unlimited trades. I also like the extra strategy element of knowing, well, yes, this guy's value and he's going to make money, but if I'm going to have to use another trade on him anyway, have I got enough to make that a good pick?

So I really like that element of it, where I think it becomes a bit easier. The Super Coach game is that these prices don't change until a player has played three times.

So obviously, you can use that to your advantage, but if you've got someone who's done two great efforts and they haven't even changed in price, you have to use your trades and even your boosts to make sure you land these coaches.

So I think you definitely need to be aggressive early to make sure you've got the right players in your team to score and generate the cash. Where I need to be better this year is those mid-rounds, where if you can't get to a best 22 or keeper player, just hold off for one or two more weeks.

Because yes, you might have to roll out a mid-pricer like a Riley Bonner scoring 80s and 85s and miss out on someone scoring a 110 that might cost you 30 points that week. But if it saves your donut on the back end, which is going to be 100 points, you catch that up pretty quick.

Yeah, I think an important point there as well. You mentioned early and aggressive in the early rounds and the boost. The element has come in over the past couple of years too. A lot of other coaches out there are also playing aggressive, using their boost early.

So it's even harder to keep up with those coaches in the early part of the Super Coach season. So being aggressive early, yes, you've got to make sure you have all the right players, but then you also have to almost do it quicker because everyone else is.

Yes, you can get a bit of luck, and an injury might hit, and you might be able to catch up a little bit easier. But again, you don't want to fall too far behind because people are sprinting out the blocks. Super Coach are sprinting out the blocks, you know, like they never have before with the addition of the boost.

And it's always a difficult one to know how much do you react to what happened last year. And maybe last year was just a bit of a one-off with just the number of injuries that we coped to popular Super Coach players in that sort of back end of the season.

So is that going to happen again? You might save all your trades, and then you don't need them. But, you know, if you do have them and others don't, then it could give you an advantage.

So I guess that's all part of the game—trying to get the mix right. But I've got a few other hot topics here to run through, and then we've got some more questions from the listeners.

But Phantom, you've touched on it already. Is this the year of the 170,000-plus rookie? Looking at Dossy and I, we went through and had a really good chat about the ownership numbers in the early team picker and all these names that are showing up—all the rookies are, you know, the top-end guys from the draft last year who all look, you know, sound like they're going to be great.

But we're spending a lot of money on rooks if we're going down that road. But I know you spent a lot of time looking at the draft as well. Is that what we should be doing, or is this just a factor of, you know, these are the names that we know at this stage, and we'll get some cheaper guys will bob up before round one?

Bit of both there. I think you make some good points. We do need to wait and see what will happen. You know, these kids, we know they're talented, but some, you know, take to training and life at the top level differently.

So we still got to wait and see what happens, who's picked, and it all depends also—a good player gets drafted into a strong team. If they've got no injuries, they're not always going to force their way in.

So plenty still to play out as we work through the end of January, February, and some practice games match here, and then the community series in late February, early March. We'll find out plenty more.

But there are some good names. You spoke about those kids in the draft. You know, we know Draeger Smith; we know Sid Draper, Levi Ashcroft—all priced above 185k.

But then there's also the names that we have seen before: Ed Allen from Collingwood, Nick Daicos' teammate, before Christmas said this kid could be a superstar. I think were the words he used.

Been on the list now for a few years, some big numbers in the VFL, comes from over west, and obviously Craig McRae needs to rejuvenate that side and that midfield. So Ed Allen, one to watch out for, he's at 194 in that same price bracket.

You've got Elijah Sardis from the Bombers, drafted a couple of years ago, who's standing out on the track for Rendon as well. And you know, Will Brody's 191k now. I had to mention Will Brody—couldn't get a game for the Dockers last year, broke out a couple of years ago.

But again, if something happens to Fife's midfield or one of their key movers in there, we know he's a plug-and-play option, can come in—you almost have to pick him as well.

So I haven't even touched on any of your men now—Josh Smiley, we know, 176k, one of the Tigers' top picks who looks ready to go too as well.

So some good names at 170-plus in the rookie stakes in 2025. So again, I still think we will need that flex position if all goes to plan and these kids and these second and third-year players had a taste of it do come on.

But we wait and see at the moment. But just keep it in your planning that, you know, you don't want to miss it out potentially. As we said before, yes, we might get a few rookies at the bottom end that pop up.

You know, Neil Asmith, 119k, if he can finally break into Freo—huge in the waffle over there last year in the final series, 29k. He can score well if he gets a game; it's all about opportunity for him.

But again, there might be a big gap between that top end in the rookie bracket to the bottom end, and the scoring, you know, could not leave you behind, I guess, because you've got the best 18.

But I think, you know, the more you play of them, the better you might be set up early. So do you have any philosophies around paying a bit extra for some of those sort of top-end rookies?

Obviously, they need to score a bit better to make money, but, you know, maybe their job security is going to be a bit better. And then the numbers that we're seeing at the moment early on anyway, people might be happy to start one or two of them on the bench.

Is that something you'd be happy to go with if they're good enough?

Yeah, I think since the sub rules have been in the last couple of years as well, paying that bit extra for a top 10 draft D who's less likely to be the sub than a basement price who's got a green dot and you put him in your team straight away.

But it takes just one sub-affected score, and then it's tough for them to make that 150. The other advantage of paying up for a rookie is that if you do have to trade them, if someone else has popped off, then you can always do it with one trade.

Whereas if you start all basement price rookies and then someone like a Josh Smiley or a Rasmus, you mentioned Phantom, does look good after two weeks, you might have to use two trades to turn your basement price rookie into one of these higher-priced ones.

Whereas if you go the other way, you've got the money to do it in the one trade.

Yep, I like that. Dossy, throwing one to you—we've touched on it already, but mid-price madness. We know it, you know, you use it as a bit of a joke term sometimes, but this year could be the year.

I mean, how many of these guys do you think you could actually pick in a team? And could this be the strategy? Is this the year that mid-price madness wins Super Coach?

Oh, is 23 too many, Al? I do wonder. There is just that many names. You know, just off the top of the head, you've got Bailey Smith, you've got a Callum Mills in defense, you've got—I mean, another guy that we like from Sydney, a Matty Roberts, Caleb Daniel potentially as well, Matta's Philipo, Jack McRae, Adam Chera, Clayton Oliver.

I mean, the names just go on and on and on. James Peatling, Matty Flynn. Yeah, look, there are so many tempting names.

I do think, obviously, opening round will help us pick a few of those names, given that we get to see them play around some of them beforehand. Say, you know, Cadan Coleman is one of the players I didn't even mention there that if we get to have a look at him and he's playing in that opening round, he's one that I'd like to see.

Same with Callum Mills. You know, we get to see these guys. So I think our decision will be made based on some of those performances.

But overall, there's just a lot of tempting names, and I think I've been flip-flopping between going with this sort of guns and rookies approach that we've already discussed on the show and going back to my mid-price, going back to the mid-price madness tried-and-true strategy that has been, you know, dominating for Selby over the years.

So it's a tough question. I think there's a fine balance, and I think I'm going to be trying to stay relatively risk-averse and try and just maybe pick a few of my absolute favorites and just bite the bullet and trade into a few of the ones that I'm not as potentially confident with.

So I think it's going to be a fine balance this year. But yeah, interested in your guys' thoughts as well because there's so many names fans out there in the mid-price bracket that are tempting.

One name who, you know, does pose a big question and could be a make-or-break selection, as I mentioned, could have coaches sort of chasing their tail to change things around at the top end of the price bracket, but does count because he's in the midfield.

And given what's above him, Clayton Oliver, a 451k priced, I think just below 85 points per game average that pretty much in his debut season or his first 15 games at the level we know at his best, way above that.

What can we expect, do you think, in 2025? Will you pick him?

Well, he certainly is in my team at the moment, but I have been thinking a lot about it. As you say, priced at 84, if we look at his averages, I mean, going all the way back to 2017, he's gone 112, 115, 109—not sure what happened a little bit of a down year that year—122, 124, 127, 120.

So you'd think, given last year, obviously, he came in as a surprise. He even played at the start of the year; he virtually had no preseason. Then he had a few little injuries during the year as well, and, you know, obviously, things just went off the rails a bit at Melbourne generally.

So surely he's going to improve on that. I guess the question that I'm asking myself is, you know, obviously, best-case scenario is he's back up to those primo numbers scoring 110-plus, and that's, you know, a huge win at that price.

You know, you take that any day of the week. What if he averages around the 100 mark, which you think, you know, that's maybe slightly more realistic? And you think, you know, still great value.

But I was thinking if we do a little comparison and Oliver v. Oliver—Oliver v. Oliver comparison—looking at Ollie Wines last year versus Clary this year, similarly priced.

So Wines started last year around the 460k mark. He finished the year with a 99 average and went up about 100k over the course of the year. The first six rounds, he averaged 95 and went up 23,000.

What if Clary does that? Where, you know, he's sort of stuck in no man's land a bit there because he's not scoring like a primo; he's not actually making a heap of money.

He's in theory value because that's, you know, 10 or so points higher than he's priced at, but is that going to get you where you need to go in Super Coach?

I enjoyed that last year, and I know Selby said he did too. This is in his ballpark. Clary Oliver at 451k— is there enough there?

Yeah, it's funny. We're talking Ollie Wines, who I did start last year, where we all knew he wasn't going to turn out to be a 110-plus star of the comp. I just thought there was enough value to pick him, whereas there's potential for Clayton Oliver to be that.

So for me, it's an easy in my side and pretty easy picked in my side, Doy. He's in yours?

Absolutely! Yeah, I think to what Al was saying before, you know, if he goes that 95, you're in no man's land. But what if he goes 120, as he has in the past? Then you're in trouble.

And I think strength in numbers as well. He'll just be in that many teams that, you know, everyone's going to be burning a trade to get out of him if they have to, and everyone's going to be enjoying the big scores if we get him.

So I think strength in numbers—I'll probably be backing him in for a big year. I think he was around the 45% denark ownership in the team picker, so not everybody's on board. A few people are happy to steer clear.

So, yeah, that'll be one of the real defining questions of Super Coach this year. A quick one, Selby, for you before we go to the listener questions.

Tristan Cherry is the most popular ruck pick as of on day one of Super Coach. Is he clearly R1 now, do you think?

Yeah, clearly. I think he'll clearly finish the number one scoring ruck. It's whether you have him in your R1 or you want to go the more value route.

But yeah, what did he do to come home? I think 131 post-bye, 149 last five. There's talk his tackle numbers were just crazy—seven and a half a game when most rucks are around the four to five marks.

There's talk that that could regress to what an average ruck does, but you just have to look at the tackle—the top tacklers of the last few years, and it's always the same names, whether it's a Libba, a Leuey, a Rottum, a Matt Ra.

So tacklers, in my opinion, have it or you don't, and Cherry's obviously got that. So I'm confident he'll at least match what he did last year, and with another year under his belt entering his prime at 26, I think he's going to exceed that.

Sorry, Max, you've been surpassed now, is that what we're saying, Phantom? The other much more difficult question just to throw at you is, who's R2 then?

Because, yeah, looking at those team picking numbers, there's a lot more variety in who people might pick in that second ruck. But did toy around with having Big Max at R2.

It is a lot of money, as Dossy kept on telling me, watching me pick my team. Bit of an interrupted preseason for Maxi with a fractured larynx.

So obviously going to be okay once games come around, but, you know, is there better value? You love to start a Matt Flynn there; it just frees up a lot of cash.

Tim English, I don't mind for 100k less than Max Gawn. Some pretty good value—we know what he can do at his best. He's got his limitations; we've seen where he's let himself down in Super Coach before.

But save 100k—is it worth it on Max? Obviously, all depends on what happens in the bottom ends of our team and how much cash we've got there.

But, you know, I still think Max does finish the year as number two. We saw R. Marshall come home strong; we've seen him do it in big spurts before.

But I still think Max has gotten him to finish number two. But yeah, it's probably going to be too much to start with him, I think.

Yeah, there's a question here from Armit on X: What is the best ruck setup for the season, Dossy? We know you're a big TDK fan. Is he the standout pick in R2?

I know Sha D'Ar is bobbing up in a few places, and I was actually surprised to see he's a few dollars cheaper than De Koning.

Yeah, well, I mean, I'm big on both of those guys potentially, so it's all just preseason watch from here. And whoever gets the most buzz in the preseason, I think I'll probably be backing in for a big year.

I just like the Tom De Koning factor for contract year status. But look, if he signs a big deal before the season starts, I might be out for that.

But no, let's ask Selby what your thoughts are on Big Shauny D'Arcy because you're a Freo man, am I not mistaken?

I am, and obviously, I know that he can score in Super Coach land with his hit-outs to advantage as good as anyone. So that's—I mentioned before I like the flex addition because it gets rid of that luck element of those really bad scores ruining the weekly score.

What I don't like about it is it does allow people to pick three of these names we mention, whereas if you limited to having to pick two out of Gawn, English, Cherry, De Koning, Flynn, it would make, I think, teams a lot more different.

And that's why I'm saying I'll use the flex position as another ruck because there's merit in all of those names we've mentioned before.

So in terms of current setup, I'll probably pay up for a Cherry as a captain option, and then I'll likely go a value player for my R2 and my flex, and whether that be Flynn, Darcy, or De Koning, I think the preseason will determine that.

And yeah, certainly when it comes to De Koning, we're watching as much as we're watching him; we're watching Marc Pittonet and what Michael Voss does there.

Because we've spoken before about the big disparity, about 40 points a week average difference when Pittonet is there versus when he's not for De Koning.

So, close watch on the Blues there. A couple more questions on X. We got one from Blacky White saying, "When does Super Coach open?"

Well, that's today, so answers that one. That's a nice easy one. Cory Black, Phantom, asking, "Maximum number of premiums from those opening round teams that you would be prepared to pick?"

Goes back to our question and our debate before. I don't think—yes, maybe in a couple, it might be the deciding factor with who you pick and who you leave out.

But I still think look at it with who you think is the better pick in isolation for most of them—who you think is going to start strong and hold it—and back your judgment in there.

You probably got enough to cover, as we mentioned, with the best 18 and with the flex. Obviously, you don't want to load up too in every position and every premium or, you know, a majority of your premiums from those opening round teams.

But I don't think it needs to come in too heavily on your thinking. Back yourself in and pick the guys you think are going to average more. We saw it with Tom Green; we've seen it in both ways, and I think we can overthink it, so don't overthink it.

Cory, SbyPY901 has asked about value plays with the early byes. Is there a sort of a price threshold where you just think, "Well, at this point, I'm not going to worry about the byes; the value is too good; you just have to take it?"

I think so, particularly because, you know, one score which is going to count that price first price rise. So if we see a Coleman and a Mills and a Roberts all score 100-plus, then it's almost—without having to use a trade like we do in the bubble round after round two, where I've mentioned I think it's important to use two trades and a boost then to make sure you get the right players.

Here, you can start someone knowing they've already got a good score built in. So I don't know if there's a limit. The only difference, though, with this year to last year is that round three early bye rounds have four teams on the bye, whereas in previous years, it was just two, two, and two.

So all those names we mentioned—Brisbane, St Kilda—all those defenders all have the same bye. So there definitely is a limit, and just play around with your team and do the numbers yourself of if you think you can get, oh, you want more than 18.

Because we've mentioned before, the thing with the best 18, most people's average rookie scores are going to drop off. So you want to make sure you've got 18 good players on those early bye rounds. If not, you might have to just pass up on one of these value players early on, and if they're really looking like popping, then get them after one of those teams on the round three bye.

J. Long, Dossy actually said to me before we came in here to record, "Can I overlook Bailey Smith?" Obviously, we'll find out more in that opening round and maybe how he's going over the preseason.

But is he too cheap to pass up, or is there enough concern how he's going to fit in down there at Geelong? What do you think, Dossy?

He's on the fence; he's trying to think a bit different. We know he tries to be a little bit different, tries to stand out. With no Bailey Smith, potentially, what do you think?

Yeah, I mean, I was looking at my forward line as well, and I'm sure other people have done this too, thinking, is there one of these, you know, super, super popular, you know, obvious picks that you could, you know, buck the trend and start with?

And I did, you know, think Jack McRae, maybe. Is he still got it? But then you look at the numbers and the price and the role, and oh man, I don't think I can do that.

And I did have a similar thought about Bailey Smith, but just that he's discounted, you know, from the year out and going to Geelong. He's going to get a key role in the midfield, whether it's necessarily full-time inside mid, I don't know if we've seen that he can, you know, do that at AFL level.

But even if he's not, I don't think it matters that much. He's shown that he can definitely score at the price, and the fact that you've got him in the forward line—like if you were worried that, you know, at that price in the midfield, it might be a bit of a different question.

Because if he does average 98, then maybe, you know, you could find a better pick somewhere else. But in the forward line, that's, you know, going to be probably a top six forward anyway.

So, yeah, going to be very hard to pass up on him. And we had Dan Batten on the show last week talking about a couple of other names at Geelong, which is a team that's probably getting overlooked.

Because if everyone's picking B, you sort of think, well, there's my one Geelong guy for round three. I can't afford to pick any others. But there might be a few others sneaking under the radar potentially that could be good picks.

Who are sort of, yeah, going to have some very low ownership numbers. So if that's something you actually like, that could be a good way to go.

Yeah, I think it was Tom Stewart last week was featured on our points of difference early pod show. So, yeah, there's a few options potentially going under the radar, as you say, Al.

But, yeah, any more questions from the listeners?

Oh, we've pretty much wrapped it up. I can throw one more at you potentially. It's about injury-prone players. If they're cheap, how many of those can you get away with picking?

We know a Campbell up in your face, but someone like Elliot Yeo last year proved that it can go the other way too if the planets align.

Yeah, it probably goes back to what I was saying before and in the risk that I'm willing to take with those mid-prices.

And I think the reason a lot of these guys are mid-prices is because it's either injury or opportunity. So it's usually one or the other—the reason that we think they're going to be able to take it to the next level or breakouts, probably the third option.

Whether a player is just going to become a star from being, you know, a role player or just taking their game to another level.

So I think I just, when it comes to injured players, I want to make sure I've got a balance in my team of guys I trust that, you know, generally play most games and then take a punt on whether that's an Adam Chera.

It's funny, we think about a Clayton Oliver, though; he played 21 games last year, so I wouldn't put him in that bracket necessarily of injury-riddled players.

But yeah, like a Bailey Smith, we've seen Caleb Daniel already had a little bit of a niggle on the hamstring this preseason. So there's plenty of those players in the price bracket that are the risk.

But I think I'm just going to balance it up and, yeah, maybe just—I don't know a number exactly on how many. Maybe I'll throw to the goat to get his thoughts on an exact number when it comes to the maths on that one.

Love to know your thoughts on Chera, Selby, because, yeah, he's probably the one with the big injury alarm bells all over him but has shown he can score.

And another one in that very nice little price bracket in the midfield—there's plenty of options there.

Yeah, I like—I've always overrated Chera, to be honest with you. Put him with high projections, and he's failed to meet it, and a lot of that is due to this injury history you alluded to.

But yeah, you mentioned last year, and another one too who was injury-prone was Dane Zorko, which scared some off, and he obviously did what he did.

So I think you're right. If they're injury-prone, they're likely cheap, and if they—there's sometimes the risk you have to take to succeed.

In terms of a limit on them, I don't have a fixed number of how many injury-prone players I can pick. If I think they're at the right price, I'll pick them.

Phantom, quick one for you before we wrap up. Anywhere we can go if we want to find out about players who might break out this year? Something Dossy touched on there.

Absolutely! You might have seen it out there. I named my seven players who might take the next step or breakout, if you like, in Super Coach in 2025.

Some names that we have discussed in that same price bracket too. I'd rather pick Will Ashcroft over Adam Chera.

Even a George Wardlaw, who Dossy couldn't believe I projected to push past 105 this year. I think he has all the tools to be the next powerhouse Super Coach scorer.

He played 18 games last season; that was the concern last summer leading into 2024—that maybe North weren't ready to unleash George Wardlaw.

But it was only a couple of concussions that got in his way. Obviously, still a big concern, concussion there for George Wardlaw, but the rest of his body held up.

And he showed in some really big spurts how quickly he can score some big Super Coach halves. So at some point, he's going to put it all together and become a powerhouse scorer.

And I think he's in my team at the moment. There's a lot of guys I like at that range—Clayton Oliver fits in there. We spoke about Chera, Ashcroft, George Wardlaw.

But I think he's one that can push up into that close to that elite scoring bracket in the midfield early on in his career.

So, you know, you love a value pick, and there's obviously different ways you can get that, like injury, as we've discussed, or maybe a new role.

Someone else, another midfield name there, a little bit cheaper, but Phantom touched on earlier—James Peatling, someone who's coming across to the Crows, who we think will get full-time midfield there or close to, certainly compared to what he had last year at GWS.

How do you—how many of those sort of breakout players do you like to pick? Or they're sort of the harder ones to get right, but if you get them right, they're just about the most fun picks in Super Coach.

Yeah, they're certainly harder to pick, but at least Peatling comes in with a couple of sub-affected games. So I'm with Phantom; I love George Wardlaw and would love to start him.

But picking that natural development is harder than picking someone who's cheap because they had a few sub games or injured games or coming back.

So I think I just, with it, when it comes to injured players, I want to make sure I've got a balance in my team of guys I trust that generally play most games and then take a punt on whether that's an Adam Chera.

It's funny; we think about a Clayton Oliver, though. He played 21 games last year, so I wouldn't put him in that bracket necessarily of injury-riddled players.