What BREAKS Crypto This Cycle?

Yo, what's up everybody? Welcome back to another episode of the order book. It's your boy Maine. Good day to be a crypto content creator, huh? Um, I hope everyone had a fantastic week so far. Today's Thursday. We got a lot of stuff to cover. We got a lot of stuff to cover. Okay. Uh quantum is going to kill your bags. The war in Iran still going on. Uh Trump's address bit of a nothing burger. The markets, crypto specifically, not doing a ton. Maybe we're going to get a little bit of relief. We've seen a bit of a move up on equities. So, we're going to cover all of that and much much more.

As always, uh, we go live every week, Tuesday and Thursday at 300 p.m. PST. So, let's get after it, boys. Um, we'll start with the charts. We'll start with the charts here. So, we've been tracking this kind of Bitcoin fractal, for lack of a better term, for some time now. Um, so we've got this Bitcoin fractal that we've been looking at, trying to figure out if we're going to repeat the last one, right? Repeat this last fractal up here or if this time is indeed different. Because if you guys remember, we basically drew this thing out something like this, right? Had the inability to hold the range high retest broke below the trend line ate [ __ ] down to the lows right and ultimately we've had a very similar go here right weekly SFP as well failed to hold the retest break of the trend line and now we're kind of back testing it and it's like okay is this different or are we going to get quite literally the same result right where even here it's like okay we we we have a little bounce and then we're just going to sell off Again, bulls are trying to hold on.

I think the difference here is if you go to January 26 back here and you look at what stocks were doing, right? We had a bit of a bounce here, but stocks were kind of distributing here. Whereas in this most recent consolidation here, right, February 6 to April 2nd, stocks have been in a downtrend here, right? So when that last consolidation up at 90K on Bitcoin occurred, stocks were distributing, stocks broke down, Bitcoin broke down, Bitcoin has now been consolidating with stocks aggressively repricing lower. So now there's this hope potentially a piece of opium, a morsel of hopeium that we could in fact see a relief valley on equities here, right? And I've talked about this. I said it's got to break this downtrend line. It's got to show some bullishness. Okay, we reclaim that old low. We've got a nice fair value gap here. We've retested it. We're pushing against this downtrend line again. We're able to break out here. Maybe that's enough to give us the relief rally here on equities and break this fractal and actually allow Bitcoin to get a bit of a relief rally as well. Maybe up towards 80K before ultimately I believe it trades lower. So, we've been tracking this for some time. Um, but I I I think that's kind of what I'm looking at now. I'm looking at Bitcoin and I'm saying, okay, I think equities could potentially move higher here. Okay, potentially if they're able to hold this breakout of that downtrend line, well, we're in the lower part of the range here, right? And we've put in a nice daily sweep. If we're able to kind of hold here, hold this low, I think there's a shot for us to push up towards the range high. And then, of course, if we can reclaim the range high, I think that will give us the potential juice we need to trade up towards 80K. So, that's what I'm watching. short term here on Bitcoin.

I think at this point the market is tired of um Trump [ __ ] talking. As am I. I think most of us are exhausted from Trump talking. I used to really find I still find Trump very funny. Um but holy [ __ ] I wish he would shut the [ __ ] up sometimes. Uh and right now is one of those times. He's like, "I'm holding this big huge press conference. Oh my god, it's this massive press conference. We have something to talk about. It's very important." And then it's just more of the same [ __ ] It's more of the same [ __ ] The war is still going on another two to three weeks. They're going to continue to attack their power plants if there's no deal. They're close to being done, which he's been saying for weeks now. They're going to bring them back to the stone age. It's like he's just spouting off all this [ __ ] And I don't think anyone actually knows what is going to happen, what he's going to do. What we do know is that oil keeps trading higher. And the fact that oil keeps trading higher makes me think that this thing's not over yet. Right? I I drew this out very crudely a while ago, right? Conflict doesn't end, oil goes up. Conflict ends, oil goes down, right? Like it's quite literally that simple. And so until we have some clarity, which we do not have now, I'm just going to be like, you know, a little bit stick and move right in and out of these positions. not trying to hold anything too long, not trying to hero call some sort of bottom. Uh, and just take the trades as they come if they're obvious, if they're clean. Um, and the market allows for it, right? Like we've basically gotten bad news about the war. Like, it's going to continue yet both oil is going up, which makes sense, right? The war is not ending, oil going up. That makes sense. But then we have equities going up as well with the war not ending. So, one of these two things is on fraud watch. We don't know which one yet, but ultimately I'm hoping we get some sort of um resolution one way or another regardless of what happens on the macro, regardless of what happens in the news. Okay.

I I am of the belief that if we're able to get this bounce here out of the lows on equities and a decent sustained rally that is purely in line with where we are from a timing perspective where I've been calling this for a little while now where we're approaching a daily cycle low. It looks like we've got that daily cycle low now in place. And if we're able to break below this downtrend line above, excuse me, we should get that relief. If you look at the Dow, right, the Dow has already broken out of its downtrend. and it's getting a bit of a retest here. So, if this is able to push up, ES is able to break above this and push up, I think that that bodess well for Bitcoin breaking this fractal here and actually potentially having a setup on the long side here. Right? You could argue this is the long right now. Right? There's your breaker. You don't really want to see it go below this low if it's going to go here. Like it could go down here first, but that's a new setup. You know what I mean? So why is my invalidation here, let's say, on this trade? Well, if we lose this low, I think the likelihood of us sweeping out this becomes very high. So why would I put my stop all the way down here, right? The riskreward sucks. You better off taking a stab here if it doesn't work, right? If this gets stopped out. Okay, guess what? You could try again down here. Try a second trade, a new setup down here, right? So, that could be its own trade. But for now, I think we should probably hold this low. If this thing's going to go, because if it doesn't hold this low, I think that opens up the door for the range low retest sweep of these 62K lows. This is a sweep here. I I don't believe we should take out like is it possible we do this? Sure. But I think the sweep's already happened. If it's going to go, it should go. So, that's kind of what I'm thinking short term on Bitcoin here. Should hold this area. Uh but I would love to see stocks break out here, right? And get that bit of a sustained bal bounce here, a bit of a sustained relief rally. um and maybe just schluff off some of the constant stream of [ __ ] [ __ ] uh about what's going on in the Middle East. Like that's why I brought cold blooded Schiller on last episode and I hope you guys enjoyed that. I know it's a little bit different, not as big maybe big mass appeal there. Um but I just wanted to not talk about the cluster [ __ ] that is this quagmire uh going on in the Middle East. By the way, everything I've said in the last month and a half of shows, bang on, right? this is going to last way longer than people think. A month ago, he was like, "We're basically done. It's it's pretty much over." I'm like, "This is not basically done. Probably going to go boots on the ground." That seems like a given at this point. It's going to end up being way messier than people think. Um and a and most importantly, we called the top on the Dow. So, what would be quite poetic, I think, right, is if you go back and watch our stream, no one else [ __ ] called this like me. I have this on stream. I'm gonna have to get Cody or one of the Clippers to find it. But we did a stream right around here. So early to mid-February, Pam Bondi, who's the attorney general, okay, was on like in front of Congress or whoever it was, and they were grilling her about Epstein. And she said, "No one cares about Epstein. The American people don't care about Epstein, right? Because the Dow is at 50,000." And I said, "What what poetry would it be if Pam Bondi says, "Who cares about the Epstein list? The Dow is at 50,000." If that also happened to be the top of the Dow because the chart looked like [ __ ] Lo and behold, it was. Now, what has happened right here at the lows? Pam Bondi has been fired. Okay, so Pam Bondi's fired. So, how poetic would it be, simulation confirmed, if we called the top on the Dow with Pam Bondi saying the Dow's at 50,000 to obfuscate, right, to distract people from the Epstein list to Pam Bondi getting fired being the bottom at least of this next rally on the Dow. So, we already know that there's a clip for that somewhere in one of my streams. We'll have to find it. And um this is the uh this would be hilarious as the um counterbalance right of that of that move is just Pam Bondi getting fired at the [ __ ] lows. It would be chef's kiss. Okay, simulation confirmed.

Um anyways, so that's kind of my thoughts for Bitcoin here. I would love for us to break away from this fractal. I would love to see this low hold. And I think what's going to really allow that to happen is if we can get this this push through this downtrending structure on equities. All right. What's going on in the chat? What's up everybody? Hi man. I got back on breakout with the release of the new platform. Stoked to use the prior platform was painful. So I left for a while. Hey man, we're glad to have you. We're glad to have you. Daily cycle low. Are you a cycle trader? I wouldn't say I'm a cycle trader. I know how to use the cycles. Um I learned from Bob Lucas um and uh guys like Camel Finance or other guys uh I I've studied a little bit. I don't use it to drive all of my trades, but I do find that when my trade ideas match up with cycles, I usually have really good results. I know. I wish I could bring back my magic pen, but we're only sharing my browser and so the pen doesn't show up um on this. I'm going to have to figure that out with Cody because I do miss using Epic Pen. I hate using uh I hate using um my the pen on Trading View. It's so annoying. Were you ever part of Tyler one Discord in 2016? I have no idea what that is. I'm not a buyer till Octoberish. You're going to go sideways downward till then. I kind of agree with you. I kind of agree. I think the I think the bottom of this bare market is, you know, kind of late Q3, early Q4 of this year. So, same page there, buddy. I think, you know, this could end up being, you know, how the bottom forms, right? like some [ __ ] like this. Um, all right guys. So, does everyone understand the Bitcoin setup here? I basically am giving you stop, entry, target. Like, if this is going to go, I think it should go from here, right? If it's going to go at all. We also had the trade idea that I shared on Telegram, which was like this one. Now, we're back here. Like, this should go if it's going to go. If we take out this low, I think high odds we take out that, you know, Trump says some [ __ ] comes out on the timeline, just pure grape. Pure grapes.

Okay, let's look at um Ethereum here. Stop asking me to do this. I don't want to. Um, so ETH, I mean, we kind of drew out the same thing as Bitcoin, right? If it's if it's unable to get back above the range high, rehold the retest, it looks bearish. And I mean, we look at ETH here now on the daily. It's fairing slightly better than Bitcoin, right? It's fairing slightly better than Bitcoin in that it's holding the mid-range, right? Like if you look at Bitcoin, we're below the mid-range. were fighting there. ETH is firmly above and it's still kind of holding its trend line. Like it's a little bit below. Depends how you want to draw it. That's the problem with trend lines. That's why I like horizontal levels. There's no um subjectivity, right? So with a trend line, you could draw this as your trend line, right? You could say this is your trend line here. Or you could say, "Oh, I'm going to use the bodies." You could say, "This is your trend line here, right?" You could say, "I'm going to do this." It's a little bit of um there's a little bit of subjectivity there where with a range, it's like this is just the [ __ ] range. These are the horizontal levels. So, the good news on ETH, I guess, sentences barely ever spoken. uh is we're kind of holding at the mid-range here and we we've put in a sweep on the daily, right? At the mid-range, confluent with a retest of the daily order block. We've taken out this old low, right? Traded below that old low, reclaimed. If you zoom down to like the H4 here, you're absolutely going to have a breaker setup here. Right there's your breaker. So, I don't know. Does it come and retest this? It's kind of got these lows here just floating. Does it come and do this first? One more shoot below 2,000 or does it just go up from here? It does not have to retest the breaker at all. Um, but there is a setup there. If it does, right, you'd long there, stop there, target the range high. That would be kind of the setup on ETH if it comes and takes out these engineered lows. um you know into into the into the demand there. But again, similar to Bitcoin here, if we want to break this fractal, I need to see equities push like we need we need a move higher here. I can't have another rejection here back to the lows. Need to see a move higher.

Salana, very similar chart. Similar, similar, similar, similar. Right, we're still in the range. Salana weaker of the three. It's at the range lows. So Salana's weekly SFP H12 breaker, this setup played on Salana, right where it hasn't played out all the way on Bitcoin and ETH. You could argue, you know, there was your breaker here. There's your sweep break in structure. So, you're shorting here. Riskreward wasn't great because how wide the stop had to be and how far the the break was. Probably one one about a one to one there. But this this this is now back at the range low here. I'm not shorting Salana here, right at the range low. We're not looking for shorts. We're actually looking in the lower part of the range for reasons to potentially get long, right? To potentially get bullish. Okay. Okay. Well, maybe we're putting in a daily sweep here on Soul. So, if we're able to put in a daily sweep, this candle closes in like 40 minutes, I think. Um or no, an hour and a half, sorry. Um if we're able to put in a daily sweep here, all of a sudden, right, you have a setup here. Break above this high, that becomes your trade into the mid-range, stop there. Okay? So that's set up for Bitcoin, ETH, and soul all on the long side, assuming the market behaves, right? I'll be interested in shorting any sort of significant rally because I'm still bearish high time frame. Um, but that those are three longs. I've given you a long on Bitcoin, a long on Soul, a long on ETH, all for a potential bounce, assuming the rest of the market behaves, assuming equities can actually break out here and move higher, right? If this thing rejects and just rolls lower, um I expect all of these to continue down and then the short, which was from here, right, ends up playing out as price takes out those lows. I'm not in the short and I'm not long, okay? I'm just sharing what I think is available out there potentially. I'm not forcing myself into any of these trades right now. I'm not super confident in the conditions. What I do like is that, you know, we basically got bad news and the market kind of didn't react too horribly. But yeah, um yeah, we can look at Nvidia and we can look at Tesla as well for sure. Bro called me handsome. He knows how to get my attention.

All right, real quick, guys, before I get into Nvidia. Um, oh, actually, I guess we can go into that right now. Is there anything else I want to talk about? Someone asked about Tao, right? Like, didn't I didn't I I I think I made like a troll post because there was like some guy who was involved in Tao and he came on I think it was thread guy's stream and was like TA's going to like you know some huge number and I was like listen high time frame there's there's there's an argument to be made that this is a bullish chart right high time frame I said there's an argument to be made that this is a bullish chart on this kind of retest here but I do think it was funny that the guy came on stream and said, "Oh, TA's going to like 3,000 and it's down like 25% since then." Just kind of hilarious. Um, but yeah, I think high time frame there is that argument to be made. Same as I said in my last stream. I don't remember what video it was. I think it was probably last Thursday. Um, that there's some sort of, you know, retest that's going to occur here on the weekly, right? I'm not quite sure where. Maybe it's down here. Maybe that retest has already happened. Maybe it wants to pull back deeper. But some sort of retest of this price leg, right? So maybe the retest is already in play. Maybe it's got deeper to come. Uh and you could argue that, hey, we took out all of these high time frame lows here. We're now pushing up and we have a structure break. Any sort of high time frame pullback is a long. So I can totally see that on to that hasn't changed. I wonder if I have the Yeah, here I drew it here. Right. So, we drew something like this, right? This is when it got mentioned. So, it was, you know, maybe Tuesday's video, I guess. I said a pullback here, right? We're at resistance. I said a pullback to this gray box, which I believe is the weekly breaker. Yeah. Um, could potentially be a long and that's kind of what we're seeing here, right? Maybe it digs in a little deeper, but if this thing's bullish, this retest should form a higher low relative to this one and then a higher high. What do I reckon the bottom will be? I don't know, somewhere between 30 and 60,000. Um, like my thought process hasn't really changed super high time frame. I'm just using the fibs. It's what I always do. Take a fib from the low. Take a fib to the high. I think that's pretty reasonable down there. This is good value. We also have the yearly order block right at 48K. So, if I get an opportunity to buy sub50k Bitcoin, I think that's really cheap in my opinion and that's a price point where I'm willing to hold on to it long term. Um, whether or not you believe that is a a fair price, good value, that's completely up to you. But, uh, every bare market I've used this exact same strategy. I've just pulled a fib from the low of the high. I'm looking to buy a deep retracement. This is exactly where the last bare market bottomed as well, right? Pull a fib from the low of the high. Where did the market bottom? Right in that deep fib retracement zone there. Right. There's your low. There's your high. Same thing. So, yeah, 30 to 38 to 57K is the zone, but I think anything below 50K is is good value in my opinion.

XPL had huge volatility today. Let's go take a look what's going on on Plasma. I don't know, man. Like, I feel like this coin just ever since it came out just down only. I guess you could argue that the selling is subsiding. I always talk about like the the slope of the selling, right? Very aggressive selling, slightly less aggressive selling. Now, we're arguably going sideways or even up, right? So, it's kind of like there's your parabolic downtrend. The downtrend chills out a little bit, then it starts going flattening out and then maybe it can uptrend again. Well, we kind of have that here. Aggressive sell-off, slightly less aggressive. Now, we're arguably slightly making higher lows here. Still very much in a range, but if it's able to break out of this range, this thing all of a sudden looks not that bad uh for potentially some relief here. But yeah, crazy volatile um candle here. I don't know what happened here, but this is a 50% move up followed by a 30% drop. So, uh be careful, especially if you're trying to trade this thing with some leverage, right? Pump it before the US midterms. could very well be uh what's going on here, right? Just just float this thing up. What are the actual dates of the midterms? What's the date of the midterms? It's got to be coming up soon. No. Thank you, Roger. Appreciate you, bro.

All right, we're going to look at uh Nvidia. We're going to look at Tesla as well. I know those just got requested. So Nvidia, right? I talked about this in the stream. I talked about this, sorry, in Monday's market update and and I was very specific in what I said, right? I said, "Everybody is late to the party with these things always, right?" And and I I tweeted this on Sunday right at the [ __ ] pico lows for Bitcoin, for gold, for equities, for things like Nvidia. I said, "My whole feed has gotten a lot more bearish." Just a month ago, month and a bit ago, everyone was horny on Nvidia right in earnings. Oh my god, they beat earnings. Jensen is going to save the market. That ended up being the ultimate short trigger. And then people are bullish, bullish, bullish the entire way down. This is the same thing for equities here. Everyone on my feed was [ __ ] bullish. And then we finally get down here and everyone goes, "Oh man, equities look like [ __ ] now. Holy [ __ ] shit's about to die." And I'm like, "What a perfect time for a bounce." Like, everyone's [ __ ] right? I'm also [ __ ] but like everyone and a lot of these people are are even more [ __ ] And I've just been around long enough that as a [ __ ] I can spot other retards out in the wild and be like, "That guy's [ __ ] retarded." Like, you know what I mean? Like, I can just tell. Um, and it's it's it's it's super apparent on Twitter these days where it's like a lot of these guys have no idea what they're doing and neither do I. Okay? Okay. So, when I say a lot of these guys, I'm one of the guys. Okay. Do you see what I'm saying? Like I'm observing right the group and I'm saying look over there there's a group of retards. Okay. But I am also a member of that group. Okay. It's like Schroing Schroinger's [ __ ] Okay. So, does the group of retards exist whether or not I perceive them? Right. But the answer is of course yes. They're [ __ ] No matter what, the box is open or the box isn't open. But imagine, right? Here's me. This is very important here. Okay, some guy just said proper TA and now I'm talking about this. Here's me. Okay, I'm a [ __ ] And you know I'm [ __ ] because it's labeled, right? Now, there's the guys I'm talking about here. So, these are all the guys on Twitter and social media and stuff, right? And so, there's a bunch of these guys over here, right? There's a bunch of these guys. Tons of these guys are over here. Okay, just imagine a an entire group of these guys. Okay, now these guys, okay, these guys are also [ __ ] right? These are also retards. Now, the key difference here is there's an S because there's more than one. So, I'm looking at these guys and I'm saying those guys are [ __ ] But I am also I'm also part of those guys. Okay. But I'm I'm I have the [ __ ] ability, right? It's like a superpower to know that most of these people [ __ ] as well as myself being [ __ ] Okay. So, whenever I say, "Oh, all these guys are retarded." I don't want you guys going around be like, "Maine thinks he's better than everyone." You know, he thinks he's better than everyone. He thinks he's this [ __ ] you know, awesome guy and everyone but him's dumb. I do think everyone's dumb. I think they're all [ __ ] But I also recognize that I am one of them. Okay, so a lot of these guys, not me in this instance, were, you know, super bullish here and we're bullish this entire downtrend. And I just said, "Hey, it would be hilarious if we just get a bit of a bounce here before further down." And it's exactly what we saw here on on Nvidia. I think a lot of people were bearish, expecting this thing just to break, right? I saw an infinite amount of charts showing some sort of trend line break here. Oh my god, it's so over. And lo and behold, we're bouncing, right? We're bouncing right from demand. Okay, big bounce. Big bounce. Big bounce. Now, do I ultimately think this does this? Yes. I think this is cooked this chart, but a bounce beforehand, not surprising at all. So, uh, if you're not short Nvidia already, right? If you're not short Nvidia already, I think maybe you could potentially look for shorts on this bounce, right? Maybe up into here. Maybe we run this high. I don't know if we get that high. We might we might reject from here, right? We might reject from up here. depends what the rest of the market does. But a move up to, you know, 180, 190, we could come and retest here, by the way, and still go down. I think pretty pretty high odds. This is this is pretty safe uh as the top for now. Uh and I think this Dow Jones comparison, which I've done 50 [ __ ] thousand times at this point, um is is very similar, right? On on Nvidia, this is the same setup, right? There's your high. we run above it, bearish retest, we might be right here on Nvidia just getting a little bit of a relief bounce like one of these before the real rollover. It's the same chart, just different different uh we're we're at a different stage.

Uh Tesla, I think very similarly as well. Okay, we've got this big downtrending structure. We ran that high from two years ago, ran the high, broke down. We have this downtrending structure here. If Tesla's able to break out of this downtrending structure, hasn't done it yet. I'd be looking for it to put in a lower high. But that's my that's my views for now on the market. And of course, anything can change. But what I really am most focused on is I want to see this. Like that's kind of my ideal scenario right now. But as you guys know, I don't try and predict five moves in advance. I'm just trying to predict one. And so what I would like to see next on equities is a a a a move higher above this downtrending structure. That's what I would like to see on uh on equities here, right? NQ big level right here. Trying to reclaim right now. Maybe get a little bit of a push higher. I really like this drawing that I did here. I think this is I think this is a really good a really good this is really good stuff here. Okay. Yes, they are called the herd. It's another good name of them. You want me to do ta on grind? Like grinder? Is this the uh is this the the gay Tinder? Is that what this is? Um yeah, I don't know. Um, like we took out we took out Q4's low like last year Q4 low. We took out last year's low, right? So that that that's a key level there, I'd say. Um, last year low. So, if you're looking at this thing on like the lower time frame and you're like, "What's going on here? Why is that [ __ ] text tiny?" First of all, so that's last year's low, right? So, I love these kind of setups because you have you have your super clean invalidation, right? Like if this thing's bullish, that's this is the low of the year. It took out last year's low, right? So if this thing's going to go up, you know, there's your invalidation is is is below that low there. 6152 next area of interest and then 5600 if that fails. Cash is king. I agree. I think cash is king. I'm holding cash. I'm pretty heavily cashed other than some spot Bitcoin. Um, and yeah, I mean I I if you guys have been following these videos at all, we're short the top. So, we have the luxury of big chilling uh because we're short equities from the top uh publicly, I might add. Right, I gave you guys stop entry target well over a month and a half ago. So, we're chilling, man. Uh the dollar, right? Still at this critical area here. We got to see if it's just going to reclaim this or if it's got one more pullback in it. But similar to Grinder, right? Using last year's low as the setup, right? The invalidation. Ran last year's low back above. It should hold this low now if it's bullish.

Um gold is I I mean, again, I I gave the low here. I just said, "Hey, this three-day order block is critical." We end up putting in a big sweep there. I want to see us get and hold above this. So, you could argue that we're retesting this now, right? Retesting this order block. But ultimately, I think this is the level I want to see us get above, right? So, we have a push up. There's your low, high, higher low, higher high, potential higher low here within this order block. Let's see this now push higher. And then I think this could push to new highs for sure. I think are are totally possible on gold. Part of that would be the dollar having another pull back as well. So something to watch.

Link Marines, bro. I miss you. I haven't seen you in so long, dude. Where you been, man? How you been? How's the family? How's the wife and kids? Feel like I haven't seen you in ages, dude. Let's take a look at link for link marines. Funnily enough, dude, like I think that this this is like probably actually a really good time to look at link. Um, do I think it can go lower? Yeah, 100%. Um, but the same reason I took this long, for those that remember, this is from years ago on YouTube. We smack this long on link. I really like these setups like this, okay? where you have this like you have um where's my little [ __ ] bar? Um okay, we have like a clear like level. Oh, [ __ ] you. Like we have a level here, right? Obviously, you know, and below that level, we have this entire area of consolidation, right? And then this huge move up. We retested this area here. Big bounce. Well, guess what? We're now retesting this this prior consolidation again here, right? We're retesting it again here. So, this is actually a pretty interesting area, right? This is obviously an area of accumulation for link. There's accumulation here and then it tripled, quadrupled in price. Syncupled, right? 5x, right? 6 to 28. That's 5x. Um, just about because it hit 30. Yeah, six to 30. 5x. Um, so, it's back now at this at this point of origin. So, I actually think this is an interesting area to look at link. Um, and then if you zoom out, right, if you go to like the yearly chart here, right? Well, we've taken out we've taken out 2024's low. Go down to the quarterly chart. It's an SFP on the quarterly. Go down to the monthly, it's an SFP on the monthly. Go down to the weekly, it's an SFP on the weekly. All confluent with this prior area of accumulation. So, I do think that if you are looking for something to potentially bounce, assuming the rest of the market can go up, if Bitcoin goes to 50K tomorrow, this is going down, right? But if Bitcoin can rally to 75K or 80K, um, this chart all of a sudden starts to look kind of interesting. It's still ranging, right? As you get to the lower time frames here, still very much in a clear range here, right? Just going sideways. But if it's able to hold and the rest of the market's able to hold, this seems like a pretty critical low. And this area is is is retesting a key area as well. So this could be something that you maybe want to look for longs for uh if the rest of the market could hold up, but I am um I'm not like a I'm not a link believer. Like I don't I don't I I've never really held link. I don't I don't understand it. I don't know what it [ __ ] does. I just trade the chart. And we've had many battles, Link Marine, my friend, on this channel about Link. Uh and it's looked bad and I've told you so before and uh I've told you when it's looked good and right now is one of those times where it kind of looks interesting, right? So kind of looks interesting down here. Something to pay attention to. Roger says, "Unless the Ayatollah says he's buying link, I'm out." Isn't the Ayatollah dead? Isn't Is that the joke that he'll never say it? Um, but yeah, Link Marine, bro, welcome back. Uh, I'm not going to add more to my shorts on S&P. I'm very happy with my position there. I'm not going to touch it. I'm just going to let it ride. If we get a bounce, um, I don't think it should bounce back to my entry. It could. Um, but I'm pretty happy to hold on to this thing however however it goes.

All right, guys. Let's get into uh let's get into some news and whatnot. Um, we'll continue flipping back and forth between the charts and if you guys have any questions, of course, please let me know. Um, but I want to talk about um some news real quick. But before I do that, make sure you guys are following the orderbook socials, please. Orderbook show on Twitter. 2,300's not bad. We're building in a bare market, guys. I would love to get this this separate channel to to 10K subs. That would be super awesome. I know it's going to be a little bit slow and steady grind, but we'll get there. So, make sure you're following on Twitter. Make sure you're following the Instagram as well. We're posting lots of awesome clips there. The Orderbook Show over on Twitter. orderbook show on you on uh on Twitter, The Orderbook Show on Instagram, excuse me. Uh shout out to one of the sponsors here, guys, of the show, NATO. Um so if you're looking to earn some ink, NATO is where you need to be trading. You want to sign up, the ref link is below. They're limited. There's not that many. You still can't just go to NATO and start trading. You need an invite link. I've included mine in the description here. Uh but you can farm the airdrop. You get INC token. It's a Clob Dex. You can trade spot. You can trade PERS. You can trade oil. Get four times the points for trading oil. If you think you're a genius and you want to speculate on oil, you can do it on NATO. They're giving away 950,000 points every single week, guys. And it's massively underfarmed. I've taken a couple of trades and gotten a ton of points uh every single week with like one or two trades. So, uh underfarmed airdrop opportunity here. There's money on the floor. you should consider picking it up. Uh they're tied to the Inc. token airdrop. All you got to do is trade and you'll get points. So head to NATO XYZ. Use my link below if you want to sign up. Shout out to the NATO team.

So let's talk about Trump, guys. Let's talk about Trump and his his speech. Who the [ __ ] is at my door? Who the [ __ ] could possibly be at the door? Sorry guys, I'm not answering it. They'll go away. So Trump had an address of the nation and I got flashbacks, right? Like I got some flashbacks. Like you remember the You remember Oh my god, they're still knocking, guys. Hold on. guys. We We quite literally We quite literally just got hit up by the [ __ ] Jehovah's Witnesses, boys. Can you see that? I'm invited to the memorial of the death of Jesus. They're going to do a Bible talk, memorial of his death. I'm invited. I feel kind of bad. There are like two young kids in suits and I'm like, "What the what the [ __ ] do you want?" And I was like, "Oh [ __ ] they're here to talk to me about Jesus. They're here to talk to me about Jesus." We love Jesus, folks. Terrific guy that Jesus Christ, one of the best. Judas, not so much. Um, but this is the meme, right? Like, so you guys know this meme here. Where the [ __ ] is my mouse? There it is. You guys know this meme, like the flashback meme, right? So, Trump is like, "Hey guys, I've got some news. I've got some news. We've got some stuff to talk about." And he held like an all hands address the [ __ ] nation. And I'm just like, okay, the last time Trump did like an all hands address the nation was a year ago. And it's when he announced the tariffs that ended up nuking the [ __ ] out of the market. Now, obviously, he told everyone to buy the dip after before we had a face melter. But it was like literally a year ago to basically the day we had liberation day where he was like, "Hey guys, I've got some news. It's going to be very big." So, I'm like, "Holy shit." like maybe he's going to announce like a ground invasion is confirmed, like troops are on the ground or maybe that it's over and that there was a peace deal. And so I had I had some flashbacks. I'm not going to lie. I had some flashbacks and then it was kind of a nothing burger. Like the Iran war's going to last another two to three weeks. He's been saying that for a while now. um the US is going to continue to go after their their their power plants. And he took out a bridge and he's like the Iran bridge is falling. We're going to send them back to the stone age unless they make a deal. Um and that the US is not going to import oil from the straight of Hormuz in the future. Um their navy's gone, their air force is in ruin and oil's up. And so this is why I said one of these markets is on fraud alert because oil is trading like the conflict is not over, which it clearly isn't, right? and it's going to continue being not over. But the equities market is trading also like it's kind of been good news. And when we formed this bottom here, you guys got to remember when we formed the bottom, um we had like talks of a ceasefire, like the president of Iran, who knows, was like, "Hey, we want to make a deal. We just need some guarantees." And they're like, "Oh, this is great." And then the market pumped, right? like the market is hungry for some sort of re resolution in the Middle East. And then other people in Iran came out and were like, "We don't know who the [ __ ] that guy is. It's just some random dude. Uh, whatever he says, [ __ ] him. We're not making a deal." So, it just seems messy. It seems like no one actually knows what's going on, but it seems like the market is starved for any crumb of good news um and any sort of resolution. But this is to me, the entire speech was nothing new. And the reason it was nothing new is because Trump has been talking nonstop every day for months, it seems like saying the same [ __ ] He's like, "We're almost done. We're about to make a deal. It's all good. I'm thinking about Cuba now." And then three hours later, he's tweeting, "We're just getting started in Iran. We're going to bomb the [ __ ] out of them. Uh, you know, and then we're going to take Cuba." Like, it's just like it's just like a little much, man. I kind of missed the um husk of a human who was uh you know the the the skin puppet who was Joe Biden who just stood up there and like wasn't even sentient or really there. Uh because at least then the markets could just do their thing and we weren't basically waiting uh with baited breath to see what the [ __ ] Trump was going to say for the day. What mood was he in? In the morning he says the war is almost over. In the evening uh boots are going on the ground. So, a bit of a nothing burger, but I do think that the reaction in the market is a little telling in that like it's craving some sort of resolution here. Um, and I don't know if it's going to get it. I've been saying this for some weeks now. I think this is a quagmire and I think it's going to get worse before it gets better. Um, you know, the Kobe letter here saying it's incredibly pudgling, right? He says that he's reread many of his recent social media posts out loud, just like I've said, threatening their power plants. War would last two to three more weeks, calling out other NATO nations for not helping, making fun of Mcronone and Starmer and being like, "Where are these guys? We're not going to help them now. Why would we help them? They're not helping us." And um the market's now trading like the wars ramping up for another month-long escalation because he's not deescalating at all. So, um yeah, I don't know. I I think maybe he's trying to, you know, um sate satiate the market with his language, but it doesn't seem to be working. Um so, yeah, this is uh this is a bit of a contrarian take here. So, two friends combined 44 years of experience in central bank, macro sales, and trading, helping you navigate crypto. Check out our free lose link below. So this guy, 44 years experience between two people. That's almost as much experience as I have seeing as I'm 52 years old and I've been in the market since I was 11, right? So that gives me 43 years experience, one less than them, but there's only one of me and there's two of them. So he says that this is the correct take that the market is offside. A lot of people are in cash, right? The downside's hedged. The sentiment was in the gutter into the coming week past quarter end to uh so it was the end of the quarter obviously end of Q1. So liquidity is going to flow back into the market and he thinks we're going to rip higher from here.

He thinks dips are for buying. We're in the final throes of Operation Electric Fury. So I am in alignment with the beginning of this statement because I said the same thing, as you guys know, Mr. Clout Collector Trader Man here. The Clout Goblin, the Lord of Clout, the guy who lives on Clout. Um, we tweeted out at the lows. I got to find it now. I can't give up now. I can't give up now. Look at this. This went viral. That meme. So, f. You know how we're in a bare market? This thing should have ran for a billion. No. Like in a bull market, this surely runs for to a billy. Whatever this [ __ ] meme is. I don't even know if a memecoin was created. I'm sure it was. And I'm sure a bunch of 20-year-olds with gay haircuts rugged a bunch of people for like $2,000. Um, but yeah, your boy Maine said, "Hey, not a lot of people were bearish at the top a month ago. It's consensus trades. Things look cooked now. Perhaps we're due for a relief rally to smoke the late bears, right?" And that's what he's kind of saying here. Sentiment was in the gutter. Maybe it's time for a bit of a rally. And, um, Bitcoin, he says, above 74K, right? Quantum stuff not helpful, but break above 74K, we can go test 85. I mean, me and this guy are thinking similarly here because what's your boy Maine been saying, right? I've been saying above the above the range high. If we're able to hold here, if we're able to get above the range high, I think we can go test up here, right? 80 to 84K. 80 to 85K. So, I, I, I'm kind of on the same wave as London Crypto here. I don't know if I believe that it goes to new all-time highs, though. Maybe that's his thought process. I'm not quite sure if he's saying, "Hey, this goes all the way back up or if this is just a relief rally, but he believes that we're in the end of this Operation Epic Fury and that the market is begging for this bottom and you should be buying all the dips." Maybe he's right. Obviously, oil says otherwise. Oil is ripping. Huge day today in oil, up over 10%. Still grinding higher. And I think there's again, there's there's someone's someone's a fraud. Either the stock market or oil, right? If we're in the end of Operation Epic Fury, this should dump. Um, so we'll wait and see. But oil pumping pretty hard for now.

Um, again, right, the escalation continues. We have Peter uh Larry Frink, Peter Frink's brother, lesser known brother, Peter Frink. Um, who's not involved with BlackRock, but he actually runs a company called, um, I'm not going to say what I was going to say. I was going to say something [ __ ] so funny, but I'm not going to say it. He's saying oil at 150 would trigger a global recession. We got Adam Cochran here, former crypto guy who's now gone full geopolitical commentator, um, saying the same thing. $100 sustained oil is going to destroy the US consumer. It's another form of inflation, right? Um, so we're not that far from, um, $150 oil, right? And as much as this has been hard to trade, right? 10% drop, 10% up. I said, "Hey, why not just go take the bet on Polymarket? Go bet on what price you think oil will be on Polymarket." Way easier to speculate that way. Metals were the first trap. Now it's retail. Uh, for retail, now it's oil. I mean, I don't know if the metals were a trap. Like, is this a trap? A multi-month, multi [ __ ] year bull run. Like, what is a trap about this? Other than maybe they got in late, but I mean, this has been in an uptrend for four years now. Um, man, I was a Mormon missionary when I was 18. You should talk to them instead. Uh, if they had any idea how many swear words I was saying up here, I think they would have ran away from my house. The moment they would have entered, they [ __ ] like the the holy water would have started burning me. Uh, do you not see this image I have on my screen here? Like, there's no place for Mormons in this in this conversation right now. Um, but yeah, I mean, listen, uh, high oil prices, it's bad for everyone, right? So Larry Frink putting a $150 target out there. Maybe sell me all your oil at 150 and [ __ ] off. We'll see.

So guys, we we did go back to the moon. Um, now I I tweeted this. I tweeted this yesterday and I said, it's kind of crazy that we're going back to the moon, right? For the first time since 1972. Okay. And I'm like, "No one's talking about it." And every comment is like, "We're not landing, though. We're not landing. They're not actually going to the moon. It's a lunar flyby." I'm like, "Okay, so they're going to the moon." You know what I mean? Like, if I drive, you know, if I drive to the store, but I don't go in the store. Did I still drive to the store? Yes or no? Right. I didn't say we're landing on the moon. So, we're going back to the moon. We're going to the [ __ ] moon, right? So, um, I, I, I'm [ __ ] I love space. I think this is super cool. And like half the people here are like, we're not actually going there. They're doing a flyby and the other half of the people of course are saying it's fake. Um, but I think it's pretty cool uh that we went, we're going back to the moon. I think it's dope. I think space is cool. Um, but some people seem pretty upset about it. I think it's just the nature of, um, of crypto right now. Everyone's miserable. To me, the um, the worst part. This is me, right? We're going back to the [ __ ] moon. That's why this is cool. CNN, why do you want to be here? Because we're going back to the [ __ ] moon.

Now, to me, the funniest part of this entire thing is they've DEI'd the [ __ ] moon mission. Okay, they DEI'd the moon mission. They've got they've got like some sort of push being like, we've got uh Canadian astronaut, we've got the first woman, we've got like the first person of color, you know, all this stuff. It's like, first of all, how come the first Canadian like is first? Why is being Canadian part of DEI now? Because we all know DEI is [ __ ] right? And this to me is the epitome of why DEI is [ __ ] But I have two problems with it. Number one, being Canadian is not like some sort of [ __ ] disadvantage, you [ __ ] Um, second of all, like the idea that it's like, this is our first woman. This is our first person of color going to the moon, right? Or doing this type of mission. It's like, bro, astronauts are some of the most, um, accomplished people on the entire planet. They're usually got like multiple degrees. They're doctors. They're super [ __ ] smart. They speak multiple languages. They're athletic. They're in incredible shape. They're physical specimens. And and being like, "This is the first person of of color to go to the moon" is just like such a [ __ ] lame DEI [ __ ] way to minimize how accomplished you have to be to be a [ __ ] astronaut. Uh, but leave it to [ __ ] people to push these stupid DEI narratives when they're not necessary. Of all places where this is [ __ ] irrelevant is when it comes to [ __ ] astronauts. Imagine you worked your entire life to become a doctor, a physical specimen so you can get into NASA, be an astronaut, and they label you as the first person of color to go on a moon mission. Like that's what they break you down to. Funny stuff. Anyways, I think it's [ __ ] cool.

Uh, another thing that's pretty [ __ ] cool is, um, TPBN. TBPN. Hard to say. Um, acquired by OpenAI. Um, so obviously massive congrats to to John and the rest of the TBPN crew here. They got acquired by OpenAI. Sam Altman funded this guy's first company in 2013. So clearly they knew each other already. Obviously, you know, Thread Guys hyped, you know, Counterparty TV, maybe they're going to get acquired. Maybe the order book is going to get acquired because, you know, Narrator says every big company is going to have its own media built or acquired. This is now marketing. Um, you know, I agree. And so if you're looking to buy whatever the [ __ ] this is, if you're out there and you're a buyer and you're interested in this, this type of insight, this type of knowledge, this art skill, this ability to communicate to the masses, you give your boy a call up, okay? You give him a call up. I'll put you in touch with my people and you can buy the order book. It's for sale right now. Okay, so congrats to them. I think it's super cool. I do agree. I think influencer attention economy, uh, this type of marketing is the future. Uh, so super cool to see this proven a little bit. Now, I'm pretty sure OpenAI is losing billions of dollars every single year and there's some shady [ __ ] going on. Like, did they or did they not kill that guy? Hearsay, of course. I'm just speculating, but did they or did they not like kill that guy? Uh, and are they or are they not just raising money while continuing to lose infinite amount of money with seemingly no pathway to profitability? So, in theory, did OpenAI actually buy TP, TBPN, or did the people who keep giving OpenAI money actually buy it because OpenAI is not making money? They're losing actually billions of dollars. That being said, Anthropic Claude, call your boy. No one wants to be purchased by ChatGPT anyways. It [ __ ] sucks. Sickopantic [ __ ] freak show of an AI LLM. We're claim maxing, so Anthropic, give your boy a call. The order book is for sale. Try and teach an AI to do this. Okay. Try and teach an AI to do this. You can't. No AI is coming up with funny [ __ ] like this. I guarantee it. At least not in this model. Um, you know what I mean? So, congrats to John and his partner. I don't remember his other guy's name. Um, the the the this is obviously huge for, uh, you know, the unemployed. I'm just kidding. Uh, but yeah, they they've got they've got a very interesting model because it's not super wide in my opinion. Like the mass appeal of TBPN is is narrow. They don't get a ton of views, but they have really good content. They have amazing guests on. It's super professional, super pro, and clearly their audience are people who have some money, right? Uh, and that their sponsors want to advertise to. So, uh, congrats to them. Huge news. And, uh, you know, order book is next, right? The order book is next. So you guys start calling people, start start reaching out, start chasing down some leads because we're for sale. We are for sale and um the number just went up. I probably would have sold this thing for parts uh yesterday, but now with this news that OpenAI has purchased TBPN, um the number just went up. I'm thinking it's a big number. I'm thinking it's a big number. So, call me. Call me. It's for sale.

Uh, so, obviously, as you guys know, Drift got drained for 200 million. Uh, Su here. Suile. [ __ ] Su. I, I almost said something crazy there. Um, Drift just got drained for 200 million. Here's how. Obviously, huge exploit. Um, and below, right, this is not DeFi. And this seems to be the common thread here, right? Um, you know, it's not DeFi if the admin key can drain all of the funds. Uh, so I agree. Um, you know, I, I guess as a crypto native, anything like this is not truly decentralized. Now, Stanny, I hate to break it to you, a lot of truly decentralized DeFi protocols get [ __ ] hacked and drained for tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions of dollars as well. But in theory, Drift is not technically DeFi based on the fact that, um, you know, the, uh, admin key was able to drain all the funds, then this would maybe be considered centralized FI, CI. I'm not smart enough to really uh get into the weeds on how this [ __ ] happened. Uh, but either way, big [ __ ] hack. 200 mil is a massive come-up. Uh, and of course, Kyle Salami, our favorite Multicoin. Kyle Salami, um, you know, is talking about security. Stepped down from Multicoin after yeeting into Solana at the pico top. Kyle Salami, who is adjacent to FTX, is uh involved with Drift. So, incredible scenes. Um, like I don't know, does this guy go to jail at some point? Like, does this guy go does does he go to jail at some point? I don't know. Um, but, uh, interesting to say nonetheless. So, RIP Drift, your money just drifted away.

Last but not least on the news front here guys, we got we got the boy Rasmer saying that last bare market we had FTX, Luna, Celsius, 3AC. Now remember these three were all connected, right? Luna going down caused the implosion of this other stuff. Okay. He's saying so far we have 1010 Drift. What else? And what he's saying is generally in bare markets, right? Things start to blow up, things start to die, things start to explode, uh, and then something happens that forms the bottom, right? So, this last bare market, FTX going bankrupt was kind of the final nail in the coffin. So far, we've had 1010, right? Which was the first breakdown. We've now got Drift down here. What is the thing that gives us this final shove? Is it Quantum, which we're going to talk about a little bit later? Um, you know, is it something to do with Strategy with Michael Saylor? Is it something to do with Tom Lee and, um, all of the ETH that he's hoarding at the highest price imaginable? Um, God, Tom Lee had such a funny, such a funny [ __ ] tweet. What was it? Yeah, dude. Bears today like and the breakout intern with the absolute [ __ ] goated clapback. This deserves way more likes. Chris Paul hits a huge three to cut the lead down to 42. I'm pretty sure Tom Lee's average entry on ETH is an incomprehensible like $4,000. Like his average entry is so high. It's hard to believe he was even able to fill the billions of dollars that he did at that price because we didn't spend a lot of time above $4,000. But he somehow managed to fill multi-billions of dollars above that level. And now he's like, "Oh my god, bears are angry because we're we've pumped a little bit." And it's like, bro, like what are we what are we talking about here, bro? What are we talking about here? So, uh, very funny, but, uh, he's right, right? Like, there is still this idea that there could be this final thing that causes this capitulation low, right? FTX was last cycle. What could it be this cycle? The final straw that breaks camel's back, puts in that final low. Is it Strategy? Is it Quantum? Is it Fun Strat? Um, you know, is it another, uh, large hack? I genuinely don't know. Uh, but it'll be very interesting to see. Is it [ __ ] full-on kinetic war in the Middle East with other countries getting involved? I genuinely don't know, but something to watch.

And then last thing here, Runner, he says, "I don't know who wants to hear this, but BTC is being aggressively sold by ETFs, the biggest BTC miners. They're pivoting to data centers and OGs." Now, I don't know if this is, um, accurate because this is is true. ETFs actually turn the corner in March. So, we've had ETFs selling. They're being a net seller to start the year. December, January, February, net seller. But for March, ETFs were back buying over a billion dollars of inflow. Another thing people don't understand about the ETFs, right, is the inflows and outflows of the ETF are not necessarily just one. If you have a Bitcoin of inflow, a Bitcoin of outflow, it doesn't mean that one Bitcoin was bought and sold. It doesn't work like that. It's flowing in and out of the ETF itself. So, it's a little more complicated than that. But in March, we did see net inflows in the ETF. Another thing to consider is if you look in the time since we've had the ETF for Bitcoin back here, we had maximum inflows here, maximum outflows here. Okay, maximum inflows here, maximum outflows here. So, actually, it's been kind of the opposite. The time of biggest outflows has been at bottoms, not tops. It's been a lagging indicator. So, don't know if I agree with Runner here, uh, necessarily that this is like bad for Bitcoin in general. Miners are always selling. Uh, I don't know if there's a lot of evidence that they're pivoting to data centers. Maybe I'm wrong. And OGs who have been holding Bitcoin for almost [ __ ] 20 years, uh, who are up tens of billions of dollars selling is also not surprising, uh, whatsoever. Okay. So, not not that crazy in my opinion. Not that surprising. I'm still of the belief that, um, we're going to be okay. Bitcoin is not going anywhere. We'll talk about this in the deep dive at the end about the quantum risk for Bitcoin and does that affect my long-term bullishness? TLDDR, no. Um, but we'll get into it anyways, uh, as we get into that next section here.

All right, guys. Any questions in the chat? We're cruising along. It's nice. What's up, Moose? How you doing, my G? When we doing the [ __ ] joint stream, my guy? You're winning all the money. I need to let your boy Maine win a couple shekels, you know? Let me get a couple of bucks. How much is the order book getting acquired for? I don't know. I think it starts with a B and it rhymes with gazillion. Thoughts on Hype? Um, not really, bro. Oh, shout out to Moose with the gifted subs over on Kick, bro. I appreciate you, man. Um, thoughts on Hype? Nothing's really changed on Hype, right? Like, nothing's really changed. I wanted to see us hold this kind of retest. I think this $35 level is pretty critical here. And ultimately, right, we've got, if I draw, right, like this is a pretty big level for Hype here. Resistance, support, support, resistance, resistance, potential support here. Um, if we're going to pull back further, right, we've got demand down here. Otherwise, right, like the next target, if the market is bullish, if the whole market's going to go up and Bitcoin's going to trade to 75, 80K, I could totally see Hype trading up towards here. Um, but until then, I don't have any [ __ ] changes here. It's very clearly in a little uptrend here. Let's see if that continues. Question. How is the GT3 RS? It's unfucking believable. Um, it's unfucking believable, bro. It's so fun to [ __ ] drive. I love it. I wish I I've had the ability to buy a supercar for a long time, but I never found them practical because I live in Canada, so it snows [ __ ] half the year. It's gray and rainy and cold. Um, even though we have beautiful roads, it's not like owning a supercar in Florida or Dubai. Like, like people in Dubai and Florida with supercars, it's like, dude, it's gay. Okay, I've been to both those places, driven supercars. It's gay. You're driving on the highway. Dubai is the worst. You go on the highway, every one kilometer there's a speed camera. People like, "Oh, are you brokey? Just pay the ticket." It's not about the ticket. It's the fact that it's just [ __ ] flat and straight. Whereas here on the west coast, we have crazy mountains and hills. Like these are the places these cars are supposed to be driven. Like these Italian and German made cars driven in the Alps and the mountains and on countryside roads, not on straight lines through the desert. Florida's kind of the same thing. It's just like straight lining it. I don't know. So, we have unbelievable roads here, but I've always driven like I had for a while there I had an RS5. I had an RS6. Um, I have uh had all sorts of Mercedes and things like that, but they were always more practical cars. Four-wheel drive, I could put a snowboard in there, golf clubs. I could drive it all year. I just didn't really see the appeal of a supercar because, you know, like I can only drive it a couple months of the year. It's not super practical. Um, and I finally am just like, "Fuck it. I'm going to do it. I want to treat myself after, you know, that Kraken acquisition." Um, I'm just gonna do it anyways, even though I have another car for daily. And I wish I did it sooner. I'm not gonna lie, bro. I'm [ __ ] completely pilled. The moment I get in the car, I start laughing like a maniac. Like, I, I laugh like a [ __ ] maniac. I laugh like an absolute madman. Uh, and it's just like I feel awesome when I'm in it the entire time. So, I'm very happy with the purchase. Originally, I was looking at like McLarens, um, like 765 LTS. I looked at a R8, SF90s, F8s. Um, I looked at a whole bunch of different cars and I, I, when I saw the Porsche next to those cars, just the big [ __ ] you spoiler, it just had so much aura and, uh, just presence. And then it's Porsche, right? So, uh, you know, it's bulletproof. Uh, it drives amazing. The build quality is amazing. Uh, and it will hold its value. So, I, I [ __ ] love it, bro. Uh, it's practical enough. I mean, a two-seater supercar is not practical at all. Um, especially when you have a wife, you got a dog, you can have kids, you like to golf, you like to snowboard. It's not practical at all. Uh, but you know, I have the ability to have more than one car. So, it doesn't matter. It doesn't have to be practical. Doge. We can look at Doge. Yeah. I mean, I don't even know when I drew this, but I probably said, "Hey, it's got to get above the range high to be interesting." And, uh, that's still the case, right? A lot of altcoins I've shown you, uh, Tao looked like this at the lows. Um, or not Tao, sorry. Link, excuse me, looked like this at the lows is, you know, a lot of these coins look similar, high time frame demand, and they're just consolidating here. So, if the market can catch a bid, right, the market can catch a bid, really aggressive sell-off, little less, now it's flattened out. If the market can catch a bid, a lot of these alts can pump. Um, but the market has to go up, right? This is two full months of price action here doing basically [ __ ] all. Um, and a lot of charts are very similar. Bitcoin is very similar. ETH is very similar. A lot of like crypto is just kind of going sideways. So, I paid an ungodly amount, bro, because I live in Canada. Hey man, any advice to pass a prop firm valuation, please? Uh, risk 0.5 to 1% per trade, no more than that. And just trade your system, bro. The guide rails are there. Don't be afraid to fail. The cost to get in is low. You can blow a 100K evaluation. You're only out a thousand bucks or 795, depends on the account you pick. It's okay to blow one and try again. It's going to take you probably more than one to pass. Uh, and that's fine, right? Trust your system. Use good risk management. The biggest advantage of the prop firm is that low barrier to entry, right? You could take multiple evaluations and once you're funded, you're now trading an account with 100 grand in it, 5x leverage on Bitcoin and ETH, you can take a big swing, get a big payout, uh, and the risk-reward ends up being positive in terms of the whole experiment, right? Uh, but yeah, use I wouldn't risk more than 1%. There's some people who risk the entire account on every trade. It's another way to go about it. My opinion and the data suggests the people who do best are people who trade systematically and use code main at breakout for a discount. Do you think we bought him in Q4 and sing with the four-year cycle? Yes, I do. Thesis on Sui? I don't have a thesis on Sui. I know that I just saw Raoul Pal talking about it. So, I wouldn't touch it with a 10-foot pole. Everything that that guy touches is cursed because he's [ __ ] [ __ ] So, um, his track record's horrid and he's like a [ __ ] liar, too. I never suggested you do DeFi. I never suggested you do Luna or Anchor. Video evidence of him saying, "You should use Anchor. You should use DeFi. I do this stuff." Uh, serial [ __ ] uh, this is obviously not Sui. Uh, serial [ __ ] max grifter. I don't know why anyone listens to him. And there's so many guys like him in our space where it's like they've been proven time and time again to be grifters, to be liars, and to have no idea what the [ __ ] they're talking about, yet they still get massive engagement and have massive followings. Um, I think they're they're not respected amongst Crypto Twitter, but it just goes to show you how small Crypto Twitter really is. Uh, because they still have mass appeal outside of it. Um, but yeah, Sui's like every other altcoin ever right now, right? Doing [ __ ] all in a range for two months now. You know, I'll I I'll be interested once it gets out of this range. Until then, it looks just the same as Dogecoin. Everything else, high time frame demand, it's going sideways. The market's got to do something. There's not much to look at here. Now, if you want to be trading the range, there's moves happening here, right? But this is not my trading conditions right now. Uh, I don't, other than at the range extremes, I don't trade when we're in the middle of the range. So, all right, guys, let's, uh, go over some Polymarket bets and then I, I'll let you go. Um, so NCAA tournament, all my picks wrong. I had Purdue winning the whole thing. Um, they got beat by Arizona. Now I think I got my money on Arizona. Um, taken at all. The reason being is they have Le Sperm on the team. Okay. So it's one to one for Arizona to win the next game, but for them to win the whole thing, it's three to one. So if we bet like 1,500 bucks here, we can win 4,500. They've got Le Sperm on the team. So that's Bryce James. They got LeBron James's other son because his current son's playing on the Lakers in the NBA with him because he's the GOAT. Uh, so there we go. I'm on Arizona, 1,500 bucks to win the entire show. Uh, and that bet is purely because they have Le Sperm, the essence of LeBron on the team. I don't think he's played at all in the tournament, but it doesn't matter. Just the fact that the Le Sperm is on the team, uh, is all that really matters and I think it can propel them to victory. So if you want to speculate, uh, and bet on these games with me, use my [ __ ] Polymarket link below. Remember that [ __ ] van full of puppies I talked about that I said if you guys don't click my Polymarket link, they're all going back to the pound. Um, well, that offer is still on the table. Um, so please, please, please use my Polymarket link. Click the link below. Shout out to Polymarket for supporting the show. All your sports betting, all your speculating. If you want to bet on what the [ __ ] Trump was going to say yesterday, we can do it all on here. I mean, there's literally so many things you can bet on. You guys know, you guys know I'm on this market, too. I'm on this. I'm at 4 cents. It's down to 08. Seems like no chance of rate cuts again this month, which is absolutely brutal. But not super surprising because the bond market is still up, but maybe, just maybe, over the coming weeks, this thing can roll over and we can see a bit of a push back on the rate decision here. Uh, but I'm going to keep like they got to cut rates at some point, man. They have to uh, they got to get them down. But anyways, uh, you should be doing all this stuff on Polymarket. Like there's so many cool markets to speculate on and, um, I want to start getting into more stuff like as we continue to just go sideways because every single crypto chart looks like this right now. Like all the altcoins look like this. Like pretty much everything looks horrid, just sideways range-bound, not doing anything. Bitcoin included. It's just going sideways. Yes, I think it can go up from here, but for literally two months now, it's been going sideways. Just it is what it is. Um, I got to start playing around with some other stuff. Maybe I'll start hanging out trading some of these mention markets. You know what I mean? Like, is Kyril Starr going to say Mr. Speaker 10 times? Okay. 100,000 times. Five plus times. So, clearly this is like an idiom of his, an idiosyncrasy. What's he gonna say during this? Farmer, big beautiful bill. Jesus Christ, Sleepy Joe Biden seems like a no-brainer. No, I feel like he always says Sleepy Joe Biden. How's there such small volume on this? You'd think there'd be more because this is coming up in like a couple of days. Obliterate. What's he What's the lowest What's the lowest one? Hate war movie star. So, I mean, some of these are quite funny. Uh, and maybe this is where I need to be spending my time. I need to be spending my time on more prediction markets. Um, while the rest of the market is boring because you can trade real-world events, [ __ ] speeches, everything. You saw how easy it is to take the bets. The UI is clean. I don't know. I [ __ ] love Polymarket. I think this is one of like Hyperlid is super cool. Breakout obviously super cool, but in terms of things to come out of this like last cycle, I know Polymarket's been around longer than that, but it really gained a lot of prominence recently. Uh, I think this is one of the coolest things, uh, you know, to come out of, uh, come out of this last cycle. So, shout out to Polymarket. Use my [ __ ] link or I am going to go and find those Jehovah Witness kids and I am going to, um, I am going to let them tell me about Jesus and then I am going to, um, tell them that Jesus is as real as the Easter Bunny. I don't know. I don't know what I'm going to do. Okay, just use the [ __ ] link. Get on there. Start speculating with your boy. Maybe we'll live stream a [ __ ] speech and we'll do some betting on the speech mention market live on stream. Maybe that could be fun. Again, guys, uh, pretty standard stuff here like are they going to open the Strait of Hormuz? Uh, a lot of people still betting on this market as no, right? No is the consensus bet for the end of April. We've been talking about some of these markets for a while where you could just probably hammer no and probably make pretty good returns. Like Trump said two to three weeks to end the war. So you're telling me I can bet no that it won't be over and make 300 bucks? Yeah, I'm risking a thousand. But Trump himself is basically saying it's not going to be over for at least two to three weeks. So, like, there's some potential money to be made here. Uh, you know, on the no side, just assuming this thing continues to drag on, right, which I think it probably will. Um, price of Hype in 2026. I, I don't think any of these are happening. I don't think any of those are happening. Let's see. Pull the Hype chart back up. I think like really bullish case scenario for Hype is 50 bucks would be really bullish, but I don't think Hype makes a new all-time high this year because I don't think the bull market starts until next year. So I don't think Hype goes above 60 this year. I don't think it goes above 60 this year. So you could bet on no. I mean, it's almost one to one at 54. This is a little dicey. I don't think it goes to 54 to be honest with you, but it's possible. I definitely don't think it's going to 60 or 70 this year, but you can do this with Hyperlid. You can do this with oil. Um, my ref rewards tab, I don't think I've [ __ ] made any [ __ ] money. Uh, I've lost money, um, on Polymarket on this account at least. I've had a couple of bets work. Um, but yeah, I don't know. I think I think low, I think no probably the bet here. Definitely no on 100. Like I think this is like, do you slam this? Like it's just like it's it's 5k risk for $700 reward. So if I were to do $10,000 here, then we're talking about like a 10% return this year on your money. You get a 10% return on betting on something that's most likely not going to happen. All right, guys. So, check out Polymarket, man. Shout out Polymarket for for, uh, supporting the show. But I'm gonna get into more of this stuff I think while the market remains boring. Is is betting on some of this kind of mention markets. Obviously sports is sports. Um, but just some other stuff that we can [ __ ] speculate on. Try and make things exciting again. Like how many [ __ ] tweets is Elon gonna send out is crazy. Uh, you know who's going to win the Eurovision? I don't know. Whoever comes up with the [ __ ] gay song. Um, I'm going to have to do some digging on this, guys. Is didn't this Didn't this season get cancelled because this chick got caught beating the [ __ ] out of her [ __ ] husband or ex-husband on video? Isn't that Isn't that a fact or am I making that up? The link's below the video here, guys. So, if you're watching this on Twitter, go below the video link, the Polymarket link's there. Otherwise, um, it's on YouTube as well.

So, the last thing I want to talk about here, guys, and I want to hear your opinion on this is quantum. Like, what are we thinking? What, what are we thinking here about quantum? Like, does anyone have an opinion on what's going on? Because basically Google released a paper, um, with a warning saying like, hey, like we're going to be able to crack some of these crypto wallets a lot sooner and a lot more easily than expected. With fewer than 500,000 physical qubits, it could be broken in minutes. Google is urging the industry to speed up its shift to post-quantum cryptography. Now, I'm going to quickly say, guys, before we get into this section here, that I want you to refer to the chart here, okay? I think a lot of people are posting, a lot of guys are posting [ __ ] takes about quantum, but remember, I am one of those guys. The difference is is I haven't posted about quantum because I don't know what the [ __ ] I'm talking about, okay? I can barely read half the words in this tweet. So, for me to have some sort of fleshed out thoughtful opinion, it's not really the case. Um, but it does seem to be something that is getting more wind behind its sails because we have Brian Armstrong, my bald brother, uh, CEO of Coinbase, saying that he's going to personally be spending more time on Quantum. Seems like we all need to solve this sooner rather than later. So, like, is this fugazi? Like, is this [ __ ] Is this fugazi? Or is quantum really this much of a risk for crypto? Some of this stuff seems bas like that the the idea that quantum was coming and there was a systemic risk to crypto from quantum always existed. But this newest iteration, what it seems to be talking about is that it's happening faster than expected. What Google is saying here is they've cut the amount of resources needed to break Bitcoin's encryption by 20x. So maybe it was 10 years out, now it's [ __ ] five years out or two years out is kind of my understanding of what's going on here is we had a longer timeline. That timeline just got shorter. So, a lot of different, uh, posts on here, right? A quantum computer may be able to crack Bitcoin private keys in just 9 minutes. 9 minutes is crazy. Um, so obviously we got to wonder, you know, is this legit? It's moved its deadline to 2029. Um, how fast is this coming? What can we [ __ ] do about it? What can you do about it? Is this bad for Bitcoin long term? What do you guys think? Like, what do you guys think? I would love to know. Um, I mean, I, I, I love that we've got the CEO of Ledger here talking about security. How about you stop leaking my name and phone number to people, bro? How about that? How about you stop leaking my name and phone number? I get a scam call from Ledger three times a day. Spend less time worrying about quantum. The truth is Google just showed us that math is advancing faster, but quantum hardware to no one has quantum hardware to touch your keys. Not even close. At Ledger, we've been building this exact scenario for years. Our hardware is already stress testing post-quantum signatures. Okay, but how come you keep giving my personal information out all willy-nilly? How come you keep getting [ __ ] hacked? How am I supposed to trust you? And I have the same [ __ ] question of Brian Armstrong. How am I supposed to trust you when your own customer service agents are giving my information away? They didn't even need quantum. They just needed low-cost [ __ ] employees running your customer service department because you're cheap. There's no quantum about that. So, how am I supposed to trust these guys? How am I supposed to trust these guys? But it does seem like a growing risk. Um, it seems like the consensus here is that it's just happening faster than originally anticipated. Uh, I thought this tweet was quite interesting. Wait until the market realizes that Satoshi's original coins are sitting on a P2PK address, completely not quantum resistant. So, Satoshi's wallets are obviously so old that they're on some of the oldest cryptographic technology out there, maybe the most crackable. Maybe that's how we finally see Satoshi's coins move is, uh, you know, Quantum, um, Quantum cracks them. Is this an AI of a dude? Interesting. So 2029 seems to be the new date that Google's giving. Um, Tom here says this is fear bait. What do you guys think, guys? Like, what do you think? Gasper Key says it's gonna take at least 10 years. I'm an expert because I read a good Twitter post. They need a computer, supercomputer the size of a building. So, what they're saying though is they've reduced the physical requirements, but seemingly the physical requirements are still insane, right? So, I don't know. I'm not selling my Bitcoin on quantum fear. Um, you know, Him Gargia here says, "These big corporations will not hand their quantum computers to theoretical researchers to break blockchains. Breaking blockchains to steal money is still stealing money. It's against the law. And by the time people with the intention to rob blockchains using quantum tech get their hands on it, devs would have passed the resistance into them." This seems to be the most bullish scenario that it's a nothing burger, which is good for the coins long term. I'm not smart enough to understand anything else. So, I'm going to give this a like because a like means I co-signed this wholeheartedly. I might as well have signed it myself. But yeah, I don't know, guys. That's, uh, that's all I got for the deep dive here. Quantum, is this what Rasmer is talking about? Is the final thing that's going to crash the bull market some quantum scare for crypto? I don't know. We're going to find out soon and we'll talk about it more in a future episode of the order book. I'm going to wrap it up today here, guys. I appreciate you all as always for tuning in. It means the world to me. If you want to support your boy, the easiest thing to do, like, comment, tell me I'm handsome below. Retweet, share, follow the orderbook socials. If you want a little bit more of Trader Maine, go to my website, tradermain.com. You can learn about Breakout there. Use code MAINE for a discount if you're buying an evaluation. Our new trading terminal is now live. Check it out. It's way better. If you want to join the Haven, you can find that information there. If you want to support NATO Kraken who support the show, use the ref link. Start trading on their DEX. That's below as well. And of course, for all your speculating needs, you should be doing it on Polymarket and you should be doing it on my link. Thank you so much for supporting your